Diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius) is a major pest of rice crops, and its early detection—before any visible plant damage occurs—is crucial to prevent yield losses and establish effective, rational control methods. This study aimed to model the infrared-thermal responses of rice cultivars to D. saccharalis infestation levels. Between 2019 and 2020, two experiments were conducted in a controlled environment using the cultivars IR 40 and BR IRGA 409, previously identified as having different resistance reactions. Rice plants grown in pots were manually infested with first-instar larvae of D. saccharalis, ranging from 0 to 10 caterpillars per plant, with the plants maintained in cages covered with voile fabric throughout the trial. After 30 days of infestation, the number of live and dead caterpillars, the number of damaged and healthy stems, and the dry mass of the aerial parts were evaluated. A generalized linear mixed model was applied to the data obtained from leaf temperature as a function of infestation level throughout the infestation period, using the F-test to detect significant differences between cultivars. Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) were fitted to the variables related to resistance. It was observed that leaf surface temperature is related to the level of infestation and could be used to detect susceptibility in IR 40. In both cultivars, leaf temperatures were higher within the first 15 days post-infestation.
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