State Inference Research Articles

Poorer representation of minds underpins less accurate mental state inference for out-groups

Societies are becoming more polarised, driven in part by misconceptions about out-groups’ beliefs. To understand these effects, one must examine the cognitive processes underlying how people think about others. Here, we investigate whether people are less prone to theorise about the minds of out-groups, or less able to do so. Participants (Study 1: n = 128; Study 2: n = 128) made inferences about social and political beliefs held by real in-group and out-group members, and could choose to receive further information to improve these inferences. Results show: (1) participants sought equivalent or greater information about out-groups relative to in-groups; but despite this, (2) made significantly less accurate inferences for out-groups; and (3) were significantly less aware of their reduced ability. This shows that poorer mental state inference is not underpinned by a reduced propensity to consider out-group minds, but instead by a worse representation of the minds of out-groups.

Functional Movement Disorder Is Associated with Abnormal Interoceptive Brain Activity: A Task-based Functional MRI Study.

Aberrant interoceptive processing has been hypothesized to contribute to the pathophysiology of functional neurological disorder, although findings have been inconsistent. Here, we utilized functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine neural correlates of interoceptive attention - the conscious focus and awareness of bodily sensations - in functional movement disorder (FMD). We used voxelwise analyses to compare blood oxygenation level-dependent responses between 13 adults with hyperkinetic FMD and 13 healthy controls (HCs) during a task requiring attention to different bodily sensations and to an exteroceptive stimulus. Additionally, we examined between-group differences in self-reported measures of interoception and evaluated their relationship with neural activity. Interoceptive conditions (heartbeat, stomach and 'body', indicating sensations from the body part or limb affected in FMD participants) activated a network involving the precuneus, the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and caudate nucleus (CN) bilaterally, and the right anterior insula (aINS) (p <0.05, corrected). Group differences in brain activity were mainly driven by processing of disease-related interoceptive signals, which in the FMD group was associated with a broader neural activation than monitoring gastric interoception, while no group differences were detected during cardiac interoception. Differences based on interoceptive focus (body vs heartbeat and stomach) between FMD subjects and HCs were found in PCC, CN, angular gyrus, thalamus, and in the mid-insula (p <0.05, corrected). This is, to our knowledge, the first study showing that FMD is associated with abnormal interoceptive processing in regions involved in monitoring body state, attentional focus, and homeostatic inference.

Simultaneous Inference of Sea Ice State and Surface Emissivity Model Using Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

AbstractSatellite microwave radiance observations are strongly sensitive to sea ice, but physical descriptions of the radiative transfer of sea ice and snow are incomplete. Further, the radiative transfer is controlled by poorly‐known microstructural properties that vary strongly in time and space. A consequence is that surface‐sensitive microwave observations are not assimilated over sea ice areas, and sea ice retrievals use heuristic rather than physical methods. An empirical model for sea ice radiative transfer would be helpful but it cannot be trained using standard machine learning techniques because the inputs are mostly unknown. The solution is to simultaneously train the empirical model and a set of empirical inputs: an “empirical state” method, which draws on both generative machine learning and physical data assimilation methodology. A hybrid physical‐empirical network describes the known and unknown physics of sea ice and atmospheric radiative transfer. The network is then trained to fit a year of radiance observations from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, using the atmospheric profiles, skin temperature and ocean water emissivity taken from a weather forecasting system. This process estimates maps of the daily sea ice concentration while also learning an empirical model for the sea ice emissivity. The model learns to define its own empirical input space along with daily maps of these empirical inputs. These maps represent the otherwise unknown microstructural properties of the sea ice and snow that affect the radiative transfer. This “empirical state” approach could be used to solve many other problems of earth system data assimilation.

Hippocampal and orbitofrontal neurons contribute to complementary aspects of associative structure

The ability to establish associations between environmental stimuli is fundamental for higher-order brain functions like state inference and generalization. Both the hippocampus and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) play pivotal roles in this, demonstrating complex neural activity changes after associative learning. However, how precisely they contribute to representing learned associations remains unclear. Here, we train head-restrained mice to learn four ‘odor-outcome’ sequence pairs composed of several task variables—the past and current odor cues, sequence structure of ‘cue-outcome’ arrangement, and the expected outcome; and perform calcium imaging from these mice throughout learning. Sequence-splitting signals that distinguish between paired sequences are detected in both brain regions, reflecting associative memory formation. Critically, we uncover differential contents in represented associations by examining, in each area, how these task variables affect splitting signal generalization between sequence pairs. Specifically, the hippocampal splitting signals are influenced by the combination of past and current cues that define a particular sensory experience. In contrast, the OFC splitting signals are similar between sequence pairs that share the same sequence structure and expected outcome. These findings suggest that the hippocampus and OFC uniquely and complementarily organize the acquired associative structure.

Belief inference for hierarchical hidden states in spatial navigation

Uncertainty abounds in the real world, and in environments with multiple layers of unobservable hidden states, decision-making requires resolving uncertainties based on mutual inference. Focusing on a spatial navigation problem, we develop a Tiger maze task that involved simultaneously inferring the local hidden state and the global hidden state from probabilistically uncertain observation. We adopt a Bayesian computational approach by proposing a hierarchical inference model. Applying this to human task behaviour, alongside functional magnetic resonance brain imaging, allows us to separate the neural correlates associated with reinforcement and reassessment of belief in hidden states. The imaging results also suggest that different layers of uncertainty differentially involve the basal ganglia and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, and that the regions responsible are organised along the rostral axis of these areas according to the type of inference and the level of abstraction of the hidden state, i.e. higher-order state inference involves more anterior parts.

Multidimensional neural representations of social features during movie viewing.

The social world is dynamic and contextually embedded. Yet, most studies utilize simple stimuli that do not capture the complexity of everyday social episodes. To address this, we implemented a movie viewing paradigm and investigated how everyday social episodes are processed in the brain. Participants watched one of two movies during an MRI scan. Neural patterns from brain regions involved in social perception, mentalization, action observation and sensory processing were extracted. Representational similarity analysis results revealed that several labeled social features (including social interaction, mentalization, the actions of others, characters talking about themselves, talking about others and talking about objects) were represented in the superior temporal gyrus (STG) and middle temporal gyrus (MTG). The mentalization feature was also represented throughout the theory of mind network, and characters talking about others engaged the temporoparietal junction (TPJ), suggesting that listeners may spontaneously infer the mental state of those being talked about. In contrast, we did not observe the action representations in the frontoparietal regions of the action observation network. The current findings indicate that STG and MTG serve as key regions for social processing, and that listening to characters talk about others elicits spontaneous mental state inference in TPJ during natural movie viewing.

State inference for low-observable distribution system based on graph convolutional network

Distribution network state inference refers to the process of calculating the state variables of each node by using measurement data and network models in the operation of the distribution system. However, the uneven measurement layout and insufficient measurement accuracy in the distribution network have brought great challenges to the state inference of the distribution network. This paper proposes a low-observable distribution network state inference method based on a graph convolution network (GCN), which uses sparse measurement data to infer missing measurement information. Firstly, the observability of the distribution network is analyzed by the numerical probability analysis method. Secondly, the GCN is employed to extract feature information from measurement data and integrate these features. The state inference model of the distribution network based on the GCN is established. Subsequently, power flow constraints of the distribution network are incorporated into the GCN training process to enhance the precision of the generated data. Ultimately, the efficacy of the proposed method is validated using the IEEE 33-node distribution system.

D2/D3 dopamine supports the precision of mental state inferences and self-relevance of joint social outcomes

Striatal dopamine is important in paranoid attributions, although its computational role in social inference remains elusive. We employed a simple game-theoretic paradigm and computational model of intentional attributions to investigate the effects of dopamine D2/D3 antagonism on ongoing mental state inference following social outcomes. Haloperidol, compared with the placebo, enhanced the impact of partner behaviour on beliefs about the harmful intent of partners, and increased learning from recent encounters. These alterations caused substantial changes to model covariation and negative correlations between self-interest and harmful intent attributions. Our findings suggest that haloperidol improves belief flexibility about others and simultaneously reduces the self-relevance of social observations. Our results may reflect the role of D2/D3 dopamine in supporting self-relevant mentalising. Our data and model bridge theory between general and social accounts of value representation. We demonstrate initial evidence for the sensitivity of our model and short social paradigm to drug intervention and clinical dimensions, allowing distinctions between mechanisms that operate across traits and states.

Human-robot facial coexpression.

Large language models are enabling rapid progress in robotic verbal communication, but nonverbal communication is not keeping pace. Physical humanoid robots struggle to express and communicate using facial movement, relying primarily on voice. The challenge is twofold: First, the actuation of an expressively versatile robotic face is mechanically challenging. A second challenge is knowing what expression to generate so that the robot appears natural, timely, and genuine. Here, we propose that both barriers can be alleviated by training a robot to anticipate future facial expressions and execute them simultaneously with a human. Whereas delayed facial mimicry looks disingenuous, facial coexpression feels more genuine because it requires correct inference of the human's emotional state for timely execution. We found that a robot can learn to predict a forthcoming smile about 839 milliseconds before the human smiles and, using a learned inverse kinematic facial self-model, coexpress the smile simultaneously with the human. We demonstrated this ability using a robot face comprising 26 degrees of freedom. We believe that the ability to coexpress simultaneous facial expressions could improve human-robot interaction.

Collaborative Synthesis of Patient Records through Multi-Visit Health State Inference

Electronic health records (EHRs) have become the foundation of machine learning applications in healthcare, while the utility of real patient records is often limited by privacy and security concerns. Synthetic EHR generation provides an additional perspective to compensate for this limitation. Most existing methods synthesize new records based on real EHR data, without consideration of different types of events in EHR data, which cannot control the event combinations in line with medical common sense. In this paper, we propose MSIC, a Multi-visit health Status Inference model for Collaborative EHR synthesis to address these limitations. First, we formulate the synthetic EHR generation process as a probabilistic graphical model and tightly connect different types of events by modeling the latent health states. Then, we derive a health state inference method tailored for the multi-visit scenario to effectively utilize previous records to synthesize current and future records. Furthermore, we propose to generate medical reports to add textual descriptions for each medical event, providing broader applications for synthesized EHR data. For generating different paragraphs in each visit, we incorporate a multi-generator deliberation framework to collaborate the message passing of multiple generators and employ a two-phase decoding strategy to generate high-quality reports. Our extensive experiments on the widely used benchmarks, MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, demonstrate that MSIC advances state-of-the-art results on the quality of synthetic data while maintaining low privacy risks.

Generalised shot-noise representations of stochastic systems driven by non-Gaussian Lévy processes

Abstract We consider the problem of obtaining effective representations for the solutions of linear, vector-valued stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by non-Gaussian pure-jump Lévy processes, and we show how such representations lead to efficient simulation methods. The processes considered constitute a broad class of models that find application across the physical and biological sciences, mathematics, finance, and engineering. Motivated by important relevant problems in statistical inference, we derive new, generalised shot-noise simulation methods whenever a normal variance-mean (NVM) mixture representation exists for the driving Lévy process, including the generalised hyperbolic, normal-gamma, and normal tempered stable cases. Simple, explicit conditions are identified for the convergence of the residual of a truncated shot-noise representation to a Brownian motion in the case of the pure Lévy process, and to a Brownian-driven SDE in the case of the Lévy-driven SDE. These results provide Gaussian approximations to the small jumps of the process under the NVM representation. The resulting representations are of particular importance in state inference and parameter estimation for Lévy-driven SDE models, since the resulting conditionally Gaussian structures can be readily incorporated into latent variable inference methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, expectation-maximisation, and sequential Monte Carlo.

Deep learning reduces sensor requirements for gust rejection on a small uncrewed aerial vehicle morphing wing

Uncrewed aerial vehicles are integral to a smart city framework, but the dynamic environments above and within urban settings are dangerous for autonomous flight. Wind gusts caused by the uneven landscape jeopardize safe and effective aircraft operation. Birds rapidly reject gusts by changing their wing shape, but current gust alleviation methods for aircraft still use discrete control surfaces. Additionally, modern gust alleviation controllers challenge small uncrewed aerial vehicle power constraints by relying on extensive sensing networks and computationally expensive modeling. Here we show end-to-end deep reinforcement learning forgoing state inference to efficiently alleviate gusts on a smart material camber-morphing wing. In a series of wind tunnel gust experiments at the University of Michigan, trained controllers reduced gust impact by 84% from on-board pressure signals. Notably, gust alleviation using signals from only three pressure taps was statistically indistinguishable from using six pressure tap signals. By efficiently rejecting environmental perturbations, reduced-sensor fly-by-feel controllers open the door to small uncrewed aerial vehicle missions in cities.

Multimodal subspace identification for modeling discrete-continuous spiking and field potential population activity

Objective. Learning dynamical latent state models for multimodal spiking and field potential activity can reveal their collective low-dimensional dynamics and enable better decoding of behavior through multimodal fusion. Toward this goal, developing unsupervised learning methods that are computationally efficient is important, especially for real-time learning applications such as brain–machine interfaces (BMIs). However, efficient learning remains elusive for multimodal spike-field data due to their heterogeneous discrete-continuous distributions and different timescales. Approach. Here, we develop a multiscale subspace identification (multiscale SID) algorithm that enables computationally efficient learning for modeling and dimensionality reduction for multimodal discrete-continuous spike-field data. We describe the spike-field activity as combined Poisson and Gaussian observations, for which we derive a new analytical SID method. Importantly, we also introduce a novel constrained optimization approach to learn valid noise statistics, which is critical for multimodal statistical inference of the latent state, neural activity, and behavior. We validate the method using numerical simulations and with spiking and local field potential population activity recorded during a naturalistic reach and grasp behavior. Main results. We find that multiscale SID accurately learned dynamical models of spike-field signals and extracted low-dimensional dynamics from these multimodal signals. Further, it fused multimodal information, thus better identifying the dynamical modes and predicting behavior compared to using a single modality. Finally, compared to existing multiscale expectation-maximization learning for Poisson–Gaussian observations, multiscale SID had a much lower training time while being better in identifying the dynamical modes and having a better or similar accuracy in predicting neural activity and behavior. Significance. Overall, multiscale SID is an accurate learning method that is particularly beneficial when efficient learning is of interest, such as for online adaptive BMIs to track non-stationary dynamics or for reducing offline training time in neuroscience investigations.

Creative Learning of Computer Science of Computer Science Professionals: Case University of Matanzas

Research on creativity is a common topic today, with a strong psychological component influencing its definition. This research takes the definition of creative learning from the theory of subjectivity, which is a strand of the cultural-historical approach. However, few studies have defined creativity in the field of computer science and even fewer have addressed learning in this field. This paper aims to diagnose creative learning in computer science in a computer engineering course at the University of Matanzas. In order to achieve this objective, creative learning is first established as an expression of creativity in learning. Then, it is described as a fundamental form of computer activity and, finally, creative learning in computer science is defined. A questionnaire was used to diagnose creative learning in computing. The questionnaire will be administered to 66 final year students enrolled in the academic year 2022. The indicators obtained in the theoretical section will be measured on a scale from 0 to 1. The study will first compare the data obtained through qualitative state inference, followed by the application of inferential statistical methods to further analyse the results. From the results, creative learning in computer science will be assessed and it will be found that it is generally poor. Based on the data, the hypothesis is rejected and the level of development of creative learning in computing is found to be low.

A machine learning approach for real-time cortical state estimation

Objective. Cortical function is under constant modulation by internally-driven, latent variables that regulate excitability, collectively known as ‘cortical state’. Despite a vast literature in this area, the estimation of cortical state remains relatively ad hoc, and not amenable to real-time implementation. Here, we implement robust, data-driven, and fast algorithms that address several technical challenges for online cortical state estimation. Approach. We use unsupervised Gaussian mixture models to identify discrete, emergent clusters in spontaneous local field potential signals in cortex. We then extend our approach to a temporally-informed hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) with Gaussian observations to better model and infer cortical state transitions. Finally, we implement our HSMM cortical state inference algorithms in a real-time system, evaluating their performance in emulation experiments. Main results. Unsupervised clustering approaches reveal emergent state-like structure in spontaneous electrophysiological data that recapitulate arousal-related cortical states as indexed by behavioral indicators. HSMMs enable cortical state inferences in a real-time context by modeling the temporal dynamics of cortical state switching. Using HSMMs provides robustness to state estimates arising from noisy, sequential electrophysiological data. Significance. To our knowledge, this work represents the first implementation of a real-time software tool for continuously decoding cortical states with high temporal resolution (40 ms). The software tools that we provide can facilitate our understanding of how cortical states dynamically modulate cortical function on a moment-by-moment basis and provide a basis for state-aware brain machine interfaces across health and disease.

Patients with chronic bipolar disorder show impairments in interpreting literary fiction - A preliminary explorative study with the short story task

IntroductionTheory of mind (ToM) is a crucial skill in navigating and functioning in the social world. Significant ToM impairment was consistently found in bipolar disorder; it can be both a state and trait marker of the disorder. However, most of the ToM tests are not sensitive enough to detect subtle individual differences, which would be necessary for an individualized treatment plan. The Short Story Task (SST) is a new way to sensitively assess individual differences in ToM performance. The aim of the study was to test the feasibility of SST in patients with bipolar disorder. Method31 persons (11 male, 20 female) with bipolar I disorder and 31 healthy individuals (15 males and 16 females) as a control group were recruited. SST was used to evaluate ToM performance. The SST uses a Hemingway novel, in which the patient is presented with a realistic social situation, where the motivations of the characters and the underlying relationships of events are not explicitly described. ResultsIn the explicit mental state reasoning questions the CG (M = 8.06) had significantly higher (p < 0.001) scores than the persons with bipolar I disorder (M = 5.03). There was no ceiling effect for explicit ToM scores in either group. Participants in CG (M = 8.03) also significantly outperformed (p = 0.006) the BG participants (M = 6.55) in the comprehension questions. The spontaneous mental state inference question was performed equally (M = 0.23) in both groups. Group assignment (t = −3.503, p < 0.001), comprehension score (t = 2.864, p = 0.006), and spontaneous mentalization (t = 2.846, p = 0.006) significantly predicted the explicit ToM performance. ConclusionsOverall, we found that the Short Story Task is a promising tool for measuring ToM in patients with bipolar disorder without ceiling effect. Primarily explicit ToM was found to be deficient, which corresponds well with the ToM literature in bipolar disorder. Contrary to our hypothesis we could not detect impairment in spontaneous ToM and found that patients living with bipolar disorder also showed deficits in comprehension. The lack of assessment of neurocognitive skills is a significant limitation of the current study.

Joint condition monitoring framework of wind turbines based on multi-task learning with poor-quality data

Effective condition monitoring can improve the reliability of the turbine and reduce its downtime. However, due to the complexity of the operating conditions, the monitoring data is always mixed with poor-quality data. Poor-quality data mixed in monitoring tasks disrupts long-term dependency on data, which challenges traditional condition monitoring methods to work. To solve it, a joint reparameterization feature pyramid network (JRFPN) is proposed. Firstly, three different reparameterization tricks are designed to reform temporal information and exchange cross-temporal information, to alleviate the damage of long-term dependency. Secondly, a joint condition monitoring framework is designed, aiming to suppress feature confounding between poor-quality data and faulty data. The auxiliary task is trained to extract the degradation trend. The main task fights against feature confounding and dynamically delineates the failure threshold. The degradation trend and failure threshold decisions are corrected for each other to make the final joint state inference. Besides, considering the different quality of the monitoring variables, a channel weighting mechanism is designed to strengthen the ability of JRFPN. The measured data proved that JRFPN is more effective than other methods.

Identifying Seismic Anomalies via Wavelet Maxima Analysis of Satellite Microwave Brightness Temperature Observations

This study develops a wavelet maxima-based methodology to extract anomalous signals from microwave brightness temperature (MBT) observations for seismogenic activity. MBT, acquired via satellite microwave radiometry, enables subsurface characterization penetrating clouds. Five surface categories of the epicenter area were defined contingent on position (oceanic/terrestrial) and ambient traits (soil hydration, vegetal covering). Continuous wavelet transform was applied to preprocess annualized MBT readings preceding and succeeding prototypical events of each grouping, utilizing optimized wavelet functions and orders tailored to individualized contexts. Wavelet maxima graphs visually portraying signal intensity variations facilitated the identification of aberrant phenomena, including pre-seismic accrual, co-seismic perturbation, and postseismic remission signatures. The casework found 10 GHz horizontal-polarized MBT optimally detected signals for aquatic and predominantly humid/vegetative settings, whereas 36 GHz horizontal-polarized performed best for arid, vegetated landmasses. Quantitative machine learning methods are warranted to statistically define selection standards and augment empirical forecasting leveraging lithospheric stress state inferences from sensitive MBT parametrization.

Interactive Autonomous Navigation With Internal State Inference and Interactivity Estimation

Interactive Autonomous Navigation With Internal State Inference and Interactivity Estimation

A unified privacy preserving model with AI at the edge for Human-in-the-Loop Cyber-Physical Systems

With the proliferation of personal Internet of Things (IoT) devices and their wide adoption among society, the original notion of IoT has been reshaped, giving rise to new IoT-based paradigms like Human-in-the-Loop Cyber-Physical Systems (HiTLCPS). While these systems can bring benefits and positively influence people, their pervasive nature raises significant privacy concerns, especially regarding the acquisition and processing of data. Although privacy-preserving mechanisms have been proposed for these implementations, the existing approaches tend to focus on either data acquisition or data processing. However, to date, no solution has encompassed the entire process. In this regard, this paper presents a unified privacy-preserving model for HiTLCPS. This approach integrates a human-centric mechanism to control and make data acquisition and sharing tasks transparent with a state inference process supported by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the edge. A set of assessments were conducted in actual implementation to evaluate the feasibility of the model. Our findings reveal that our federated learning approach is a suitable solution compared to the traditional approach based on machine learning at the small cost of 3.27% of average accuracy. Finally, this paper concludes by providing a roadmap towards integrating HiTLCPS from diverse contexts, including a state inference process closer to the user domain.