Infectious Disease Surveillance System Research Articles

Information-guided adaptive learning approach for active surveillance of infectious diseases

The infectious disease surveillance system is a key support tool for public health decision making. Current research concentrates on optimizing static sentinel deployment to address the problem of incomplete data due to the lack of sufficient surveillance resources. In this study, we introduce an information-guided adaptive learning strategy for the dynamic surveillance of infectious diseases. The goal is to improve monitoring effectiveness in situations where it is possible to adjust the focus of surveillance, such as serial surveys and allocation of testing tools. Specifically, we develop a probabilistic neural network model to learn spatio-temporal correlations among the numbers of infections. Based on a probabilistic model, we evaluate the information gain of monitoring a spatio-temporal target and design a greedy selection algorithm for monitoring targets selection. Moreover, we integrate two major surveillance objectives, i.e., informativeness and coverage, in the monitoring target selection. The experimental results on the synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, showcasing the promise of further exploration and application of dynamic adaptive active surveillance.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Clustering of Symptomatic Hepatitis E Virus Reinfection in Zhejiang Province, 2005–2023

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) reinfection is prevalent among the population, posing a significant burden on prevention and control efforts. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of data from China’s Disease Prevention and Control Information System’s infectious disease surveillance system to identify the epidemiological characteristics, spatiotemporal clustering, and high-risk populations of HEV reinfection. From 2005 to 2023, HEV reinfection in Zhejiang Province exhibited a fluctuating trend, peaking in 2020, with a 3–5-year lag compared to the pattern of HEV incidence. The Cox model indicated that individuals aged 40–50 and females are at higher risk of reinfection. Spatial autocorrelation was observed in reinfection cases from 2011 to 2016, with high–high clustering areas concentrated in downtown Hangzhou. Additionally, spatiotemporal scanning revealed that the clustering of reinfection cases has shifted from Hangzhou to coastal areas in recent years. Our findings suggest that targeted prevention and control measures for HEV rein fection should be implemented based on the characteristics of high-risk populations and spatiotemporal clustering patterns.

Wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance and beyond: A survey

The pandemic of COVID-19 has imposed tremendous pressure on public health systems and social economic ecosystems over the past years. To alleviate its social impact, it is important to proactively track the prevalence of COVID-19 within communities. The traditional way to estimate the disease prevalence is to estimate from reported clinical test data or surveys. However, the coverage of clinical tests is often limited and the tests can be labor-intensive, requires reliable and timely results, and consistent diagnostic and reporting criteria. Recent studies revealed that patients who are diagnosed with COVID-19 often undergo fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 virus into wastewater, which makes wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance a promising approach to complement traditional clinical testing. In this paper, we survey the existing literature regarding wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance and summarize the current advances in the area. Specifically, we have covered the key aspects of wastewater sampling, sample testing, and presented a comprehensive and organized summary of wastewater data analytical methods. Finally, we provide the open challenges on current wastewater-based COVID-19 surveillance studies, aiming to encourage new ideas to advance the development of effective wastewater-based surveillance systems for general infectious diseases.

Expert consensus on the key technologies for a multi-point trigger intelligent surveillance and early warning system for infectious diseases

An effective infectious disease surveillance and early warning system is a crucial component of public health safety and is essential for preventing and controlling outbreaks of infectious diseases. Enhancing surveillance and early warning capabilities is an urgent priority for advancing high-quality disease prevention and control efforts. Combining the research findings and practical experiences of experts in epidemiology, clinical medicine, disease prevention and control, data science, and computer science, and following multiple rounds of expert discussions, we have developed a consensus on the key technologies for a multi-point trigger intelligent surveillance and early warning system for infectious diseases. This consensus primarily covers the related concepts and definitions of the multi-point trigger intelligent surveillance and early warning system for infectious diseases, the key technical framework, sources, acquisition, and governance of multi-channel warning data, classification of early warning methods, multi-point trigger intelligent surveillance and early warning paths, multi-point trigger warning and comprehensive assessment, response to warning signals, and evaluation of early warning effectiveness. It aims to provide technical references for the construction and application of a multi-point trigger intelligent surveillance and early warning system for infectious diseases.

Key Characteristics and Perception of Different Outbreak Surveillance Systems in Côte d'Ivoire: Cross-Sectional Survey Among Users.

Accurate and timely infectious disease surveillance is pivotal for effective public health responses. An important component of this is the disease surveillance tools used. Understanding views and experiences of users is crucial for informing policy decisions and ensuring the seamless functioning of surveillance systems. In this study, we aimed to assess the user perceptions of 3 disease surveillance tools used in Côte d'Ivoire, namely, MAGPI, District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2), and Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System (SORMAS), the latter was implemented in 2021 within a pilot scheme. We conducted interviews and a web-based survey distributed to users of the 3 surveillance tools. The survey assessed users' views of the surveillance tools' usefulness, ease of use, feelings toward the tool, conditions that may influence the use, and other characteristics. The descriptive analysis compared responses from SORMAS, MAGPI, and DHIS2 users, providing a comprehensive evaluation of their experiences. Among the 159 respondents who actively use one of the systems, MAGPI was the most widely used surveillance tool among respondents (n=127, 79.9%), followed by DHIS2 (n=108, 67.9%), and SORMAS (n=25, 15.7%). In terms of users' perceptions, SORMAS, despite its limited implementation, emerged as a tool that allows for data analysis and had the most comprehensive set of functionalities. DHIS2 was appreciated for its frequency of report provision, although users reported occasional IT system failures. MAGPI was recognized for its ease of use but was reported to lack certain functionalities offered by the other surveillance systems. This study offers valuable insights into the perceptions of disease surveillance tools users in Côte d'Ivoire. While all systems were positively regarded, each exhibited strengths and weaknesses addressing different needs and functionalities. Policy makers and health officials can use these findings to enhance existing tools or consider a unified approach for infectious disease surveillance systems. Understanding users' perspectives allows them to optimize the choice of surveillance tools, ultimately strengthening public health responses in Côte d'Ivoire and potentially serving as a model for other countries facing similar decisions in their health care systems.

The Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Sentinel Surveillance System in South Korea: Retrospective Evaluation Study.

South Korea has implemented a hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) surveillance system since 2009 to monitor incidence trends and identify disease burden. This nationwide surveillance involves a network of approximately 100 pediatric clinics that report all probable and confirmed HFMD cases. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, infectious disease surveillance systems must be evaluated to ensure the effective use of limited public health resources. This study aimed to evaluate the HFMD sentinel surveillance system in South Korea from 2017 to 2022, focusing on the transition period after the COVID-19 pandemic. We retrospectively reviewed the HFMD sentinel surveillance system from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency using systematic guidelines for public health surveillance system evaluation developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We assessed the system's overall performance in 5 main factors: timeliness, stability, completeness, sensitivity, and representativeness (ie, the age and geographic distribution of sentinels). We rated these factors as weak, moderate, or good. Our study showed that the completeness, sensitivity, and age representativeness of the HFMD surveillance performance were temporarily reduced to moderate levels from 2020 to 2021 and recovered in 2022, while the timeliness and geographic representativeness were maintained at a good level throughout the study period. The stability of the surveillance was moderate from 2017 to 2021 and weak in 2022. This is the first study to evaluate the HFMD surveillance system after the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identified a temporarily reduced level of performance (ie, completeness, sensitivity, and age-specific representativeness) during the acute phase of the pandemic and good performance in 2022. Surveillance system evaluation and maintenance during public health emergencies will provide robust and reliable data to support public health policy development. Regular staff training programs and reducing staff turnover will improve HFMD surveillance system stability.

Spatiotemporal, Demographic, and Climatic Drivers of Malaria Transmission in the Endemic Setting of Jazan, Saudi Arabia: A Retrospective Study.

Despite progress, malaria remains endemic in Jazan, Saudi Arabia necessitating updated epidemiological research to guide elimination strategies. This study analyzed recent surveillance data to elucidate drivers of sustained transmission. A retrospective, epidemiological study was conducted using malaria surveillance data from the Jazan region of Saudi Arabia over a 3-year period from January 2018 to December 2020. Deidentified records of all confirmed malaria cases reported across Jazan during the study period were obtained from the Jazan Department of Health infectious disease surveillance system. Additional meteorological data was acquired to assess climatic correlates. The final analysis included 5255 confirmed cases meeting completeness criteria for key variables. Descriptive statistics characterized cases across demographic factors and spatial and temporal distributions. Correlations and linear regression modeling identified associations between monthly cases and weather parameters. Mapping visualized geographic patterns. Of 5255 confirmed cases, most were concentrated in Baish sector (50.8-72.0% annually), affected adult male foreigners (93.8-97.0%), peaked inconsistently across seasons, and were imported (85.4-94.9%). Non-Saudi nationality had 6-fold higher incidence versus Saudi citizens in 2020 (677.6 vs 23.1 per 100,000). Monthly cases associated negatively with temperature (p=0.015) and positively with windspeed (p=0.005). Malaria persistence in Jazan involves geographic and demographic hotspots driven by imported infections and climate effects on vectors. Tailored programming aligned with evolving local dynamics will be essential to sustain elimination gains. Surveillance, optimized interventions, and flexible adaptation to high-risk locations/populations and meteorological influences are key priorities.

Availability of published evidence on coverage, cost components, and funding support for digitalisation of infectious disease surveillance in Africa, 2003–2022: a systematic review

BackgroundThe implementation of digital disease surveillance systems at national levels in Africa have been challenged by many factors. These include user applicability, utility of IT features but also stable financial support. Funding closely intertwines with implementations in terms of geographical reach, disease focus, and sustainability. However, the practice of evidence sharing on geographical and disease coverage, costs, and funding sources for improving the implementation of these systems on the continent is unclear.ObjectivesTo analyse the key characteristics and availability of evidence for implementing digital infectious disease surveillance systems in Africa namely their disease focus, geographical reach, cost reporting, and external funding support.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature for the period 2003 to 2022 (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42022300849). We searched five databases (PubMed, MEDLINE over Ovid, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar) and websites of WHO, Africa CDC, and public health institutes of African countries. We mapped the distribution of projects by country; identified reported implementation cost components; categorised the availability of data on cost components; and identified supporting funding institutions outside Africa.ResultsA total of 29 reports from 2,033 search results were eligible for analysis. We identified 27 projects implemented in 13 countries, across 32 sites. Of these, 24 (75%) were pilot projects with a median duration of 16 months, (IQR: 5–40). Of the 27 projects, 5 (19%) were implemented for HIV/AIDs and tuberculosis, 4 (15%) for malaria, 4 (15%) for all notifiable diseases, and 4 (15%) for One Health. We identified 17 cost components across the 29 reports. Of these, 11 (38%) reported quantified costs for start-up capital, 10 (34%) for health personnel compensation, 9 (31%) for training and capacity building, 8 (28%) for software maintenance, and 7(24%) for surveillance data transmission. Of 65 counts of external funding sources, 35 (54%) were governmental agencies, 15 (23%) foundations, and 7 (11%) UN agencies.ConclusionsThe evidence on costing data for the digitalisation of surveillance and outbreak response in the published literature is sparse in quantity, limited in detail, and without a standardised reporting format. Most initial direct project costs are substantially donor dependent, short lived, and thus unsustainable.

Effectiveness of integrase strand transfer inhibitors among treatment-naive people living with HIV/AIDS in Guangdong, China: A real-world, retrospective cohort study.

Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) in anti-retroviral therapy (ART) have been recommended by the World Health Organization for their higher efficacy, favorable safety and tolerability. However, the clinical evidence supporting switching to INSTI-containing regimens in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited, as few patients have access to these regimens. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of INSTI-containing regimens in real-world settings in China compared to government-provided free ART. We compared the short-term (first 4 mo following ART initiation) and long-term (1 year after ART initiation) effectiveness between INSTI-containing regimens and free ART drugs provided by the Chinese government in 4 dimensions: viral suppression status, immune response, liver and kidney function, and AIDS-related diseases. We obtained data from electronic medical records in the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System. To control baseline confounders, we used propensity score matching (PSM), calculated using logistic regression including socio-demographic and baseline factors. Among 12,836 patients from 2012 to 2019, 673 (5.2%) used INSTI-containing regimens. Patients with INSTI-containing regimens were matched to those with free drugs (644 vs 644). For short-term effectiveness, patients initiating INSTI-containing regimens were more likely to achieve viral suppression (81.4% vs 52.0%; P < .001). The differences in immune response, liver and kidney function and AIDS-related diseases were not significant between the 2 groups. For long-term effectiveness, viral suppression rates were similar (87.96% vs 84.59%; P = .135), with no significant differences in immune response, liver and kidney function, or AIDS-related diseases. Our study suggests that patients initiating ART with INSTI-containing regimens have worse physical status at baseline than patients starting with free ART drugs. Furthermore, we found better virological performances of INSTI-containing regimens in the short-term but not in the long-term due to a high rate of drug changes. Our findings have clinical implications and provide new evidence regarding the effectiveness of INSTI-containing regimens in LMICs.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and Digital Pandemic Surveillance in Germany (eCOV Study): Web Application-Based Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

The COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges to global health systems. Efficient public health responses required a rapid and secure collection of health data to improve the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and examine the vaccine effectiveness (VE) and drug safety of the novel COVID-19 vaccines. This study (COVID-19 study on vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects over 16 years; eCOV study) aims to (1) evaluate the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines through a digital participatory surveillance tool and (2) assess the potential of self-reported data for monitoring key parameters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Using a digital study web application, we collected self-reported data between May 1, 2021, and August 1, 2022, to assess VE, test positivity rates, COVID-19 incidence rates, and adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination. Our primary outcome measure was the VE of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The secondary outcome measures included VE against hospitalization and across different SARS-CoV-2 variants, adverse events after vaccination, and symptoms during infection. Logistic regression models adjusted for confounders were used to estimate VE 4 to 48 weeks after the primary vaccination series and after third-dose vaccination. Unvaccinated participants were compared with age- and gender-matched participants who had received 2 doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and those who had received 3 doses of BNT162b2 and were not infected before the last vaccination. To assess the potential of self-reported digital data, the data were compared with official data from public health authorities. We enrolled 10,077 participants (aged ≥16 y) who contributed 44,786 tests and 5530 symptoms. In this young, primarily female, and digital-literate cohort, VE against infections of any severity waned from 91.2% (95% CI 70.4%-97.4%) at week 4 to 37.2% (95% CI 23.5%-48.5%) at week 48 after the second dose of BNT162b2. A third dose of BNT162b2 increased VE to 67.6% (95% CI 50.3%-78.8%) after 4 weeks. The low number of reported hospitalizations limited our ability to calculate VE against hospitalization. Adverse events after vaccination were consistent with previously published research. Seven-day incidences and test positivity rates reflected the course of the pandemic in Germany when compared with official numbers from the national infectious disease surveillance system. Our data indicate that COVID-19 vaccinations are safe and effective, and third-dose vaccinations partially restore protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. The study showcased the successful use of a digital study web application for COVID-19 surveillance and continuous monitoring of VE in Germany, highlighting its potential to accelerate public health decision-making. Addressing biases in digital data collection is vital to ensure the accuracy and reliability of digital solutions as public health tools.

Infectious diseases in Poland in 2021.

OBJECTIVE OF THE WORK. As 2021 was the second year of COVID-19 pandemic we expect the continuous impact of the pandemic on other infectious diseases. We aimed at reviewing the national infectious surveillance data based on available surveillance reports (Epidemiological Chronicle) to summarize the infectious disease situation in 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS. National infectious disease surveillance system collects mandatory notifications from physicians and laboratories as well as epidemiological investigation reports prepared by State Sanitary Inspection, where relevant. We also include mortality data based on the reports of Statistics Poland office. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION. In 2021, there were 2,852,789 cases of COVID-19 reported, corresponding to the incidence of 7475.4 per 100,000 and 90,126 deaths related to COVID-19. For most of diseases the incidence remained lower than before the pandemic. This included influenzea and influenzea-like illness incidence (- 5.4% vs 2020 and - 37.6% vs median 2015-2019) and tuberculosis incidence (+9.3% vs 2020 and -35.9% vs median 2015-2019). The incidence was lower than in 2020 for: pertussis (-75.7%), measles (-54.9%), rubella (48.7%), mumps (-16.4%), chickenpox (-19.0%) or H. influenzea invasive disease (-33.0%). A notable exception to these trends was Clostridium difficile intestinal infections incidence, which was higher by 88.2% from the 2015-2019 median with 21,157 case and 1,120 fatalities reported in 2021. There was also an almost 4-fold increase in norovirus infections incidence. The number of chronic hepatitis infections diagnoses were substantially lower than median for 2015-2019 (-53.7% for HBV and - 68.8% for HCV). The COVID-19 pandemic still played the crucial role as a public health problem, but its impact on other infectious diseases was less clear than in 2020. The reduction in the number of registered cases was with likely attributable to non-pharmaceutic interventions and to delays in registration due to reduced public health resources.

Persistence and Variation of the Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Restrictions on the Spectrum of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: Analysis of National Surveillance Among Children and Adolescents From 2018 to 2021.

Beyond the direct effect of COVID-19 infection on young people, the wider impact of the pandemic on other infectious diseases remains unknown. This study aims to assess changes in the incidence and mortality of 42 notifiable infectious diseases during the pandemic among children and adolescents in China, compared with prepandemic levels. The Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System of China was used to detect new cases and fatalities among individuals aged 5-22 years across 42 notifiable infectious diseases spanning from 2018 to 2021. These infectious diseases were categorized into 5 groups: respiratory, gastrointestinal and enterovirus, sexually transmitted and blood-borne, zoonotic, and vector-borne diseases. Each year (2018-2021) was segmented into 4 phases: phase 1 (January 1-22), phase 2 (January 23-April 7), phase 3 (April 8-August 31), and phase 4 (September 1-December 31) according to the varying intensities of pandemic restrictive measures in 2020. Generalized linear models were applied to assess the change in the incidence and mortality within each disease category, using 2018 and 2019 as the reference. A total of 4,898,260 incident cases and 3701 deaths were included. The overall incidence of notifiable infectious diseases decreased sharply during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) compared with prepandemic levels (2018 and 2019), and then rebounded in 2021, particularly in South China. Across the past 4 years, the number of deaths steadily decreased. The incidence of diseases rebounded differentially by the pandemic phase. For instance, although seasonal influenza dominated respiratory diseases in 2019, it showed a substantial decline during the pandemic (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.21, 95% CI 0.09-0.50), which persisted until 2021 (percent change in phase 4 2021: 1.02, 95% CI 0.74-1.41). The incidence of gastrointestinal and enterovirus diseases decreased by 33.6% during 2020 but rebounded by 56.9% in 2021, mainly driven by hand, foot, and mouth disease (percent change in phase 3 2021: 1.28, 95% CI 1.17-1.41) and infectious diarrhea (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.22, 95% CI 1.17-1.28). Sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases were restrained during the first year of 2021 but rebounded quickly in 2021, mainly driven by syphilis (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.31, 95% CI 1.23-1.40) and gonorrhea (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.16). Zoonotic diseases were not dampened by the pandemic but continued to increase across the study period, mainly due to brucellosis (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.94, 95% CI 0.75-1.16). Vector-borne diseases showed a continuous decline during 2020, dominated by hemorrhagic fever (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.68, 95% CI 0.53-0.87), but rebounded in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a marked decline in notifiable infectious diseases in Chinese children and adolescents. These effects were not sustained, with evidence of a rebound to prepandemic levels by late 2021. To effectively address the postpandemic resurgence of infectious diseases in children and adolescents, it will be essential to maintain disease surveillance and strengthen the implementation of various initiatives. These include extending immunization programs, prioritizing the management of sexually transmitted infections, continuing feasible nonpharmaceutical intervention projects, and effectively managing imported infections.

Spatial-temporal analysis of hepatitis B in Fujian Province, China in 2012–2021

BackgroundFujian Province has one of the highest reported incidences of hepatitis B virus infection in China. This study aimed to provide a theoretical framework for preventing and controlling hepatitis B in Fujian Province, and to assess the trends and the spatial-temporal distribution patterns of hepatitis B in this region. MethodsData on hepatitis B cases were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, trend surface analysis, and spatial-temporal scanning statistics were used to identify the spatial and aggregation patterns at the county level. The Joinpoint was used to assess the reported incidence trends. ResultsThe average reported incidence of hepatitis B in Fujian from 2012 to 2021 was 14.46/10,000 population, with 583,262 notified cases. The age-adjusted reported incidence of hepatitis B decreased from 17.44/10,000 population in 2012 to 11.88/10,000 population in 2021, with an average reduction in the annual percentage change of 4.5%. There were obvious spatial-temporal aggregation characteristics in hepatitis B cases, and a high-incidence area was located in eastern Fujian. Spatio-temporal scanning statistics revealed four levels of aggregation of hepatitis B reporting rates. The first level of aggregation area included Minhou, Gulou, Jin'an, Taijiang, and nine other districts and counties. ConclusionsThe incidence of hepatitis B is declining in Fujian Province. Spatial clusters of hepatitis B cases in Fujian Province were identified, and high-risk areas in eastern Fujian still exist. Closely monitoring the general patterns in the occurrence of hepatitis B and implementing focused control and preventative strategies are important.

West Nile Virus Emergence in Germany 2019: Looking for Hidden Human West Nile Virus Infections.

Background: Autochthonous human West Nile virus (WNV) infections were notified in the infectious disease surveillance system in Germany in 2018 for the first time and every year since then. Since clinically apparent infections are infrequent, we conducted two studies to investigate subclinical infections of this emerging disease in Germany in 2019 to detect infections not visible to surveillance based on symptomatic infections: limited-scope blood donor testing and a serosurvey among employees at two Berlin zoos with a history of demonstrated WNV infections in animals. Methods: For the zoo study, employees of the two zoos in Berlin were invited to participate in the study in late 2019. Blood samples were drawn and tested for the presence of antibodies (immunoglobulin M [IgM] and immunoglobulin G [IgG]) against WNV, and two other flaviviruses present in Germany: Usutu virus and Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV). For the study in blood donors, four blood establishments with collection sites in regions with documented WNV-infected animals in 2018 and 2019 participated in the study. All donations in these regions were tested for WNV genome from July to November 2019. Results: In the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, none of the 70 tested zoo employees were WNV IgM-positive, 8 were WNV IgG-positive, additional 2 participants had equivocal results. All 10 were negative in the virus neutralization test (VNT) for WNV, but positive in the VNT for TBEV. None of the 4273 samples from blood donors tested in areas with WNV-infected animals was positive for WNV-RNA. Conclusion: Our results indicate that WNV circulation in Germany, though clearly documented in animals in 2019, apparently affected very few humans. Still areas with WNV-positive animals remain risk areas for human infection as well.

Trends in temporal and spatial changes of Japanese encephalitis in Chinese mainland, 2004–2019: A population-based surveillance study

BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a serious health concern in China, with approximately 80 % of global infections occurring in China. To develop effective prevention and control strategies, this study explored the epidemiological characteristics of JE in China based on spatiotemporal data, to understand the patterns and trends of JE incidence in different regions and time periods. MethodThe incidence and mortality rates of JE were extracted from the Public Health Data Center, the official website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2004 to 2019. Joinpoint regression was applied to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and annual percentage change in incidence and mortality of the JE. ResultsFrom 2004 to 2019, a total of 43,569 cases of JE were diagnosed, including 2081 deaths. The annual incidence rate of JE decreased from 0.4171/100,000 in 2004 to 0.0298/100,000 in 2019, with an annual percentage change (APC) of −13.5 % (P < 0.001). The annual mortality rate of JE showed three stages of change, with inflection points in 2006 and 2014. The incidence and mortality rates of JE have declined in all provinces of China, and more cases were reported in 0–14 years of age, accounting for nearly 80 % of all patients. ConclusionsThe morbidity and mortality rates of JE in China are generally on a downward trend, and emphasis should be placed on strengthening disease surveillance in special areas and populations, popularizing vaccination, and increasing publicity.

A review of wastewater-based epidemiology for antimicrobial resistance surveillance

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is recognized as one of the most serious threats to public health. Unparalleled population growth and accelerated rates of AMR emergence and dissemination have resulted in both novel resistance in pathogenic organisms and the re-appearance of infections that were formerly under control. Consequently, this has led to an increased quantity of infectious diseases. One of the main drivers of antimicrobial overuse is inappropriate prescribing in human and veterinary medicine. The ability to rapidly survey the spread of antimicrobial resistance within human populations is key for its prevention, intervention, and control. However, many constraints are present for current clinical surveillance systems and their capacity to determine AMR dynamics in the microbiome of healthy individuals as well as in clinical pathogens causing infections. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an emergent technique that has the capacity to act as a supplementary measure for current infectious disease surveillance systems and as an early warning system for infectious disease outbreaks. The development of disease outbreaks to the community level can be monitored in real time through the analysis of population pooled wastewater. This review provides an introduction to using wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor AMR bacteria, as well as an overview of wastewater-based epidemiology and its components.

Association between work sick-leave absenteeism and SARS-CoV-2 notifications in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Alternative data sources for surveillance have gained importance in maintaining coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situational awareness as nationwide testing has drastically decreased. Therefore, we explored whether rates of sick-leave from work are associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) notification trends and at which lag, to indicate the usefulness of sick-leave data for COVID-19 surveillance. We explored trends during the COVID-19 epidemic of weekly sick-leave rates and SARS-CoV-2 notification rates from 1 June 2020 to 10 April 2022. Separate time series were inspected visually. Then, Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated at different lag and lead times of zero to four weeks between sick-leave and SARS-CoV-2 notification rates. We distinguished between four SARS-CoV-2 variant periods, two labour sectors and overall, and all-cause sick-leave versus COVID-19-specific sick-leave. The correlation coefficients between weekly all-cause sick-leave and SARS-CoV-2 notification rate at optimal lags were between 0.58 and 0.93, varying by the variant period and sector (overall: 0.83, lag -1; 95% CI [0.76, 0.88]). COVID-19-specific sick-leave correlations were higher than all-cause sick-leave correlations. Correlations were slightly lower in healthcare and education than overall. The highest correlations were mostly at lag -2 and -1 for all-cause sick-leave, meaning that sick-leave preceded SARS-CoV-2 notifications. Correlations were highest mostly at lag zero for COVID-19-specific sick-leave (coinciding with SARS-CoV-2 notifications). All-cause sick-leave might offer an earlier indication and evolution of trends in SARS-CoV-2 rates, especially when testing is less available. Sick-leave data may complement COVID-19 and other infectious disease surveillance systems as a syndromic data source.

Algorithmic Approach to Determination of Epidemic Thresholds in Infectious Disease Surveillance Systems

Introduction: This review is devoted to the algorithmic approach to establishing epidemic thresholds for a wide range of diseases, including influenza and acute respiratory infections. Objective: To compare Russian and foreign approaches to the determination of epidemic thresholds within public health surveillance systems. Materials and methods: To reveal the algorithmic approach to establishing epidemic thresholds in the epidemiological surveillance system, we summarized the results of 14 foreign scientific works and two domestic method guidelines published before December 31, 2023. The literature search was conducted in the eLibrary, CyberLeninka, PubMed, and Google Scholar databases using the keywords “epidemic threshold” and “epidemic”. We compared domestic and foreign algorithms for establishing epidemic thresholds by various characteristics, including the statistical method used, determination of a numerical value of the epidemic threshold, complexity of the algorithm, and the possibility of automating calculations. Results: Here we discuss the classification and comparative characteristics of the basic algorithms for determining epidemic thresholds used in various countries of the world when carrying out epidemiological surveillance (including the syndromic one). We describe the existing methods for establishing and presenting epidemic thresholds, as well as the sequence of steps for performing the Farrington algorithms, the Early Aberration Detection System C1–C3, the Method of Moving Epidemics, the Method of Moving Percentiles, Multi-level identification of increasing activity by indicators taking into account mixed effects, as well as algorithms provided in Russian Method Guidelines MR 3.1.2.0118–17 and MR 3.1.2.0303–22. We also dwell on the problems of development, accuracy assessment and prospects for the implementation of existing and developed algorithms. Conclusions: Current algorithms for establishing epidemic thresholds in epidemiological surveillance systems around the world are diverse; they rely on different statistical methods and vary in complexity. To date, there is no convincing evidence of higher efficiency of any algorithm.

Burden of chickenpox complications in Poland, 2006 to 2021: A comprehensive registry-based study.

BackgroundChickenpox, a vaccine-preventable disease caused by the varicella zoster virus, generally presents with mild symptoms but can cause complications necessitating hospitalisation. In Poland, since 2009, vaccination has been obligatory for children up to 12 years of age who are particularly vulnerable to infection and for children in their vicinity.AimTo examine the burden of chickenpox complications and the trends of hospitalisation arising from these complications over time in the Polish population.MethodsData spanning 2006-21 were sourced from the Polish Infectious Diseases Surveillance System, the Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study and the Statistics Poland death registry. Standardised and age-specific incidence rates, hospital discharge rates and number of deaths because of chickenpox were calculated. Moreover, the joinpoint regression model was used to analyse trends of annual hospital discharge rates.ResultsOver the analysed timeframe, 25,804 hospitalisations and 52 deaths attributable to chickenpox complications were documented, and 1.0% of chickenpox cases required hospitalisation because of chickenpox. Age-standardised hospitalisation rates varied between 2.3 and 9.6 per 100,000 population. The analysis revealed no statistically significant trend in overall hospital discharge rates from chickenpox complications. However, a notable increase in hospitalisation rates was observed in children aged 0-4 and among inhabitants of rural areas, with annual percentage changes of 4.9% and 3.4% respectively.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the implementation of a universal chickenpox immunisation programme, supported by health education, should be considered to reduce the number of hospitalisations and nearly eliminate deaths because of chickenpox.

ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА НА ЗДОРОВЬЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ В РОССИИ. ПРИОРИТЕТНЫЕ НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ АДАПТАЦИИ (АНАЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ ОБЗОР)

A review of the studies assessing the impact of climate change on public health is presented. Taking into account climatic features of various regions, priority tasks of the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change are identified. The tasks include: establishing threshold values for high temperatures based on assessing health risks, including mental health; creating a monitoring system for the concentration of allergenic plant pollen and the prevalence of allergic diseases; developing prevention systems for outdoor and indoor workers at extremely high temperatures (optimum work and rest conditions); improving the epidemiological surveillance system for climate-related infectious diseases, in particular, organizing microbiological monitoring of permafrost soils. Special adaptation plans are needed for indigenous peoples of the Arctic region.