Industry Loss Warranties Research Articles

The impact of counterparty risk on the basis risk of industry loss warranties and on (collateralized) reinsurance under (non-)linear dependence structures

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of counterparty risk on the basis risk of industry loss warranties as well as on reinsurance with and without collateral under different dependence structures. The authors additionally compare the solvency and Sharpe ratio for different premium loadings and contract parameters.Design/methodology/approachThe authors propose a model framework extension to account for the counterparty risk of risk transfer arrangements. Copulas are used to also take into account non-linear dependencies between risk factors, and Monte Carlo simulation is employed to derive numerical results and to conduct sensitivity analyses.FindingsThe authors show that the impact of counterparty risk is particularly pronounced for higher degrees of dependencies and tail dependent losses, i.e. in cases of basis risk levels that appear low if counterparty risk is not considered. With respect to counterparty risk management, the authors find that already partial collateralization limits counterparty and basis risk to more acceptable levels.Practical implicationsThe study results are particularly relevant to practitioners, as insurers may not only underestimate the “true” basis risk of index-linked instruments, but also the effect of counterparty risk of reinsurance contracts along with the consequences for solvency and profitability.Originality/valueThe authors extend existing literature by allowing for the (partial) default of industry loss warranties and reinsurance under different dependence structures. Furthermore, the authors include profitability in addition to risk considerations. The interaction effects between counterparty risk and the basis risk of index-based alternative risk transfer instruments are largely unstudied, despite their considerable relevance in practice.

Pricing industry loss warranties in a Lévy–Frailty framework

We propose a novel risk-neutral pricing approach for industry loss warranties. In doing so, we explicitly take into account the statistical dependence of the losses on individual policies in the underlying insurance portfolio, caused by the occurrence of a natural catastrophe. Inspired by recent advances in the structured credit literature, we model joint claim events in a Lévy–Frailty framework with a stochastic time change. Event time is driven by rare and large jumps of a compound Poisson subordinator and thus elapses more quickly when a natural catastrophe has struck, leading to a clustering of losses. We estimate the model on historical ILW quotes and obtain encouraging fit statistics.

AN EXTREME-VALUE THEORY APPROXIMATION SCHEME IN REINSURANCE AND INSURANCE-LINKED SECURITIES

AbstractWe establish a “top-down” approximation scheme to approximate loss distributions of reinsurance products and Insurance-Linked Securities based on three input parameters, namely the Attachment Probability, Expected Loss and Exhaustion Probability. Our method is rigorously derived by utilizing a classical result from Extreme-Value Theory, the Pickands–Balkema–de Haan theorem. The robustness of the scheme is demonstrated by proving sharp error-bounds for the approximated curves with respect to the supremum and L2 norms. The practical implications of our findings are examined by applying it to Industry Loss Warranties: the method performs very accurately for each transaction. Our approach can be used in a variety of applications such as vendor model blending, portfolio optimization and premium calculation.

Cat Bonds and Other Risk-Linked Securities: Product Design and Evolution of the Market

This paper analyzes risk-linked securities as sources of risk capital for the insurance and reinsurance industries. Risk-linked securities are innovative financing devices that enable insurance risk to be sold in capital markets, raising funds that insurers and reinsurers can use to pay claims arising from mega-catastrophes and other loss events. The most prominent type of risk-linked security is the catastrophic risk (CAT) bond, which is a fully collateralized instrument that pays off on the occurrence of a defined catastrophic event. The CAT bond market has expanded significantly in recent years and now seems to have reached critical mass. Nontraditional risk financing instruments, including CAT bonds, industry loss warranties (ILWs), and sidecars, now represent a substantial component of the property catastrophe retrocession market.

Industry loss warranties: contract features, pricing, and central demand factors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed analysis of industry loss warranties (ILWs), an alternative risk transfer instrument which has become increasingly popular throughout the last few years.

An analysis of pricing and basis risk for industry loss warranties

In recent years, industry loss warranties (ILWs) have become increasingly popular in the reinsurance market. The defining feature of ILW contracts is their dependence on an industry loss index. The use of an index reduces moral hazard and generally results in lower prices compared to traditional, purely indemnity-based reinsurance contracts. However, use of the index also introduces basis risk since the industry loss and the reinsured company’s loss are usually not fully correlated. The aim of this paper is to simultaneously examine basis risk and pricing of an indemnity-based industry loss warranty contract, which is done by comparing actuarial and financial pricing approaches for different measures of basis risk. Our numerical results show that modification of the contract parameters to reduce basis risk can either raise or lower prices, depending on the specific parameter choice. For instance, basis risk can be reduced by decreasing the industry loss trigger, which implies higher prices, or by increasing the reinsured company attachment, thus inducing lower prices.

The influence of non-linear dependencies on the basis risk of industry loss warranties

Index-linked catastrophic loss instruments represent an alternative to traditional reinsurance to hedge against catastrophic losses. The use of these instruments comes with benefits, such as a reduction of moral hazard and higher transparency. However, at the same time, it introduces basis risk as a crucial key risk factor, since the index and the company’s losses are usually not fully dependent. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of basis risk on an insurer’s solvency situation when an industry loss warranty contract is used for hedging. Since previous literature has consistently stressed the importance of a high degree of dependence between the company’s losses and the industry index, we extend previous studies by allowing for non-linear dependencies between relevant processes (high-risk and low-risk assets, insurance company’s loss and industry index). The analysis shows that both the type and degree of dependence play a considerable role with regard to basis risk and solvency capital requirements and that other factors, such as relevant contract parameters of index-linked catastrophic loss instruments, should not be neglected to obtain a comprehensive and holistic view of their effect upon risk reduction.

Catastrophe reinsurance and risk capital in the wake of the credit crisis

Purpose – Property and casualty (“PC and external risk capital provided by third parties. The paper also explores the distinctions between four types of external catastrophe risk capital: reinsurance, industry loss warranties, catastrophe derivatives, and insurance‐linked securities. Finally, how the credit crisis has impacted alternative sources of catastrophe risk capital in different ways is considered.Design/methodology/approach – The discussion is based on the conceptual framework for analyzing risk capital developed by Merton and Perold.Findings – In 2008, the P&C insurance industry was...

Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk‐Transfer Solutions

AbstractOne of the most significant economic developments of the past decade has been the convergence of the financial services industry, particularly the capital markets and (re)insurance sectors. Convergence has been driven by the increase in the frequency and severity of catastrophic risk, market inefficiencies created by (re)insurance underwriting cycles, advances in computing and communications technologies, the emergence of enterprise risk management, and other factors. These developments have led to the development of hybrid insurance/financial instruments that blend elements of financial contracts with traditional reinsurance as well as new financial instruments patterned on asset‐backed securities, futures, and options that provide direct access to capital markets. This article provides a survey and overview of the hybrid and pure financial markets instruments and provides new information on the pricing and returns on contracts such as industry loss warranties and Cat bonds.

Catastrophe Reinsurance and Risk Capital in the Wake of the Credit Crisis

In 2008, the property and casualty insurance industry was adversely affected by significant natural catastrophe-related losses, floundering investments, and limited access to capital markets. Catastrophe reinsurance premiums have risen and capacity has shrunk. Especially at such times, risk capital is an essential component of a P&C insurer’s economic balance sheet. In this article we review the similarities and differences between internal risk capital (provided by investors in insurance company debt and equity in the sense of Merton and Perold (1993)) and external risk capital (including traditional reinsurance, catastrophe derivatives, industry loss warranties, and insurance-linked securities). We explore the relative benefits and costs of alternative sources of risk capital for both policyholders and insurance company shareholders and analyze the impact of the credit crisis on these various interrelated markets.

Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk Transfer Solutions

One of the most significant economic developments of the past decade has been the convergence of the financial services industry, particularly the capital markets and (re)insurance sectors. Convergence has been driven by the increase in the frequency and severity of catastrophic risk, market inefficiencies created by (re)insurance underwriting cycles, advances in computing and communications technologies, the emergence of enterprise risk management, and other factors. These developments have led to the development of hybrid insurance/financial instruments that blend elements of financial contract with traditional reinsurance as well as new financial instruments patterned on asset backed securities, futures, and options that provide direct access to capital markets. This paper provides a survey and overview of the hybrid and pure financial markets instruments and provides new information on the pricing and returns on contracts such as industry loss warranties and CAT bonds.

CAT Bonds and Other Risk‐Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments

AbstractThis article reviews the current status of the market for catastrophic risk (CAT) bonds and other risk‐linked securities. CAT bonds and other risk‐linked securities are innovative financial vehicles that have an important role to play in financing mega‐catastrophes and other types of losses. The vehicles are especially important because they access capital markets directly, exponentially expanding risk‐bearing capacity beyond the limited capital held by insurers and reinsurers. The CAT bond market has been growing steadily, with record amounts of risk capital raised in 2005, 2006, and 2007. CAT bond premia relative to expected losses covered by the bonds have declined by more than one‐third since 2001. CAT bonds now appear to be priced competitively with conventional catastrophe reinsurance and comparably rated corporate bonds. CAT bonds have grown to the extent that they now play a major role in completing the market for catastrophic‐risk finance and are spreading to other lines such as automobile insurance, life insurance, and annuities. CAT bonds are not expected to replace reinsurance but to complement the reinsurance market by providing additional risk‐bearing capacity. Other innovative financing mechanisms such as risk swaps, industry loss warranties, and sidecars also are expected to continue to play an important role in financing catastrophic risk.

CAT Bonds and Other Risk-Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments

This paper reviews the current status of the market for catastrophic risk (CAT) bonds and other risk-linked securities. CAT bonds and other risk-linked securities are innovative financial vehicles that have an important role to play in financing mega-catastrophes and other types of losses. The vehicles are especially important because they access capital markets directly, exponentially expanding risk-bearing capacity beyond the limited capital held by insurers and reinsurers. The CAT bond market has been growing steadily, with record amounts of risk capital raised in 2005, 2006, and 2007. CAT bond premia relative to expected losses covered by the bonds have declined by more than one-third since 2001. CAT bonds now appear to be priced competitively with conventional catastrophe reinsurance and comparably rated corporate bonds. CAT bonds have grown to the extent that they now play a major role in completing the market for catastrophic risk finance and are spreading to other lines such as automobile insurance, life insurance, and annuities. CAT bonds are not expected to replace reinsurance but to complement the reinsurance market by providing additional risk-bearing capacity. Other innovative financing mechanisms such as risk swaps, industry loss warranties, and sidecars also are expected to continue to play an important role in financing catastrophic risk.

On the Basis Risk of Industry Loss Warranties

Industry loss index‐based risk transfer and management instruments such as the industry loss warranty (ILW) and other catastrophe insurance derivative products have proliferated in recent years. This article introduces an alternative measure of the ILW basis risk, specifically the conditional probability that the ILW policy does not pay out, given an actual loss sustained by the policyholder that exceeds some critical level. The author also discusses the effectiveness of upwardly oriented basis risk in reducing loss volatility. After introducing guidelines for choosing between an ILW and traditional reinsurance, the article concludes that a properly structured ILW can be an effective and innovative instrument for a large insurer or reinsurer to manage the severity and volatility of catastrophe losses, but not necessarily, for a medium‐sized or small (re)insurer. Although this article focuses on ILWs, the general methodology and conclusions presented are applicable to other index‐based risk transfer products.