Industrial Sector Output Research Articles

Industrial Sector Performance and Labour Force Participation in Nigeria: A Gender Perspective

The literature on the role of industrialization in labour force participation in Nigeria is quite scanty. Besides, there is significant disparity between male and female labour force participation rates in the country. To this end, this study investigated the impact of industrial sector performance on labour force participation in Nigeria. The total industrial sector output was disaggregated into the outputs of the various components of the Nigerian industrial sector namely; manufacturing, mining and quarrying, utility and construction sectors. Total labour force participation rate was equally disaggregated into male and female labour force participation rates. Annual time-series data for the period 1981 to 2022 were used for the study. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, error correction model (ECM), and Granger causality test were the econometric techniques used in analysing the data. The findings from the study revealed that manufacturing sector, and mining and quarrying sector outputs have significant positive impact on male labour force participation rate; construction sector output has insignificant positive impact on male labour force participation rate while utility sector output has insignificant negative impact on male labour force participation rate. On the other hand, manufacturing sector, and mining and quarrying sector outputs have significant negative impact on female labour participation rate while utility and construction sectors’ outputs have insignificant positive impact on female labour force participation rate. The main conclusion from the study is that while the total industrial sector performance largely encourages male labour force participation, it largely discourages female labour force participation in Nigeria

The impact of agricultural value chains on sustainable industrial development in Sub-Saharan Africa

This research identifies the critical challenges surrounding agricultural value chains and their role in fostering sustainable industrial development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) between 1990 and 2022, utilizing the Panel Least Squares (PLS) technique. The paper reports that agricultural value added (p < 0.01), farm machinery (p < 0.05), human capital (p < 0.01), and access to electricity (p < 0.01) exhibited a positive and significant influence on industrial sector output. Conversely, agricultural raw materials exports (p < 0.01) had a negative and significant impact on industrial sector output (p < 0.01). In conclusion, the study underscores the critical role of agricultural value chains in fueling sustainable industrial development in SSA and recommends that policymakers formulate plans to leverage agricultural value chains as catalysts for enduring economic growth and development.

Saga on Rural Development in Karbi Anglong, Assam: An Understanding from Gandhian Perspective

Agriculture makes a significant economic contribution to Karbi Anglong in a number of ways, including by providing food for the region's expanding population, sufficient raw materials for a burgeoning industrial sector, a significant source of employment, and a market for the industrial sector's output, among other things. In this paper, it is stated that the agricultural sector has a solid rural foundation, making it associated with rural development and the foundation of agriculture and agricultural development in Karbi Anglong, without which all attempts at agricultural development will be fruitless. It notes that in Karbis society, agriculture is still primarily conventional and is owned by smallholders and pastoralists. Neglecting agriculture has led to a mass exodus of rural inhabitants, which has led to a qualitative and quantitative decline in the population of the rural area and made it less and less intriguing for socioeconomic investment. It comes to the realisation that elevated agricultural growth and development in Karbi Anglong depend substantially on rural development. Therefore, in this study, an effort has been made to highlight the economy and the factors that influence its dependency. Gandhi, a national political figure, mostly relied on populist activism and their economic advancement via the superfluous growth of cottage and small-scale enterprises. It makes an effort to study the Gandhian model of development and assess its applicability in the current setting.

Impact of Capital Market Development on Industrial Sector Output in Nigeria: 1986-2022

The ideal situation for any growing economy, especially one as diversely poised as Nigeria, is to have a thriving industrial sector. This sector is traditionally seen as an indispensable engine of growth, a crucial antidote to the challenges of unemployment, and a potent creator of wealth. Regrettably, the current state of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria falls significantly short of this ideal. Recent statistics indicate that the industrial sector’s contribution to GDP remains suboptimal, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting a decline in industrial growth despite several policy measures aimed at enhancing its growth. This research sought to investigate the impact of capital market development on the growth of industrial sector in Nigeria between 1986 and 2022 with the aid of ARDL estimation technique. The findings revealed that Stock Market Capitalization had a significant and positive impact on industrial sector growth, suggesting that as market capitalization increased, the industrial sector flourished. In the same vein, Turnover Ratio, which is the value of traded shares divided by market capitalization, was found to enhance industrial sector growth positively and significantly. These positive relationships underscored the pivotal role the capital market plays in boosting the industrial sector by mobilizing and channeling resources efficiently. However, the All-Share Index exhibited a negative relationship with the industrial sector growth, indicating that while general market sentiment might be positive, it might not always translate to growth in the industrial sector. Based on these findings, the paper recommended promoting public listings and private investments as a strategy to enhance the growth potential of the industrial sector. Furthermore, improving trading platforms, ensuring market transparency, and reducing transactional costs were emphasized to leverage the benefits of a high turnover ratio. For the negative aspects found with All-Share Index, policymakers were advised to address these components to ensure holistic development of both the capital market and the industrial sector.

Industrialization and Employment Generation in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis<b></b>

This study examined the impact of industrialization on employment creation, taking evidence from the Nigerian economy and using annual data covering the period of 1990 to 2022. The specific objectives were to determine the causal relationship between industrialization and employment creation in Nigeria and to examine the impact of industrialization on employment creation in Nigeria. To draw empirical evidence, the econometric methods of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) with Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and the Granger causality test were employed as the analytical techniques. The results of the ARDL and ECM reveal that a short-run and long-run relationship exists between industrial sector output and employment creation (proxied by the unemployment rate) in Nigeria. With the establishment of a long-run relationship and the aid of the ARDL bounds test for cointegration, the long-run and short-run estimates were estimated. The findings of the study reveal that industrial sector performance has a negative and significant impact on the unemployment rate in Nigeria. In other words, it has a positive and significant impact on employment creation in Nigeria. Therefore, the study, among other requisite recommendations, suggests that the Nigerian authority prioritize the growth and improvement of the industrial sector through the provision of basic infrastructure such as transport networks, energy systems, and communication technologies, among others.

Interest Rate, Savings, and Industrial Performance in Nigeria

This study examined the effect of interest rate and savings on industrial productivity in Nigeria. This is imperative because there has been low level of savings and investment amongst other impediment to industrial productivity. The Ordinary Least Square OLS multiple regression analysis was applied on data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin in a model where industrial sector output was the dependent variable while national savings, interest rate INTR and inflation rate INFL were the explanatory variables. The result of the analysis at 5% level of significance shows clearly that savings exerts a significant impact on industrial output in Nigeria. the result also showed that interest rate and inflation rate does not have a significant impact on industrial output in Nigeria. The study concluded that, savings has a significant positive impact on industrial output while the impact of interest rate and inflation rate on industrial output in Nigeria was positive but insignificant. It was recommended that there is a need to bridge the widening gap between lending rate and savings rate to encourage savings to generate needed loanable funds for investment in Nigeria.

Real Sectors` Performance as a Precursor to Economic Restructuring in Nigeria

This study focused on real sectors performance as a precursor to economic restructuring in Nigeria. There seemed to be an unbalanced transition of the Nigerian economy from agriculture to industrial and to services sector which failed to achieve a transformed economy. The individual real sectors` growth have been disproportionate. Sector-specific policies need to be implemented due to recent service sector led growth in the economy. To proceed, we analyzed individual real sector performance using real sectors time series data from 1981 to 2018 sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and WDI. The study utilized the following variables: growth rate of real GDP (GDPR), growth rate of services sector output (SEVR), growth rate of manufacturing sector output (MANR), growth rate of industrial sector output (INDR), growth rate of Agricultural sector output (AGCR), growth rate of trade openness (OPEN) and Real interest rate (INTR).The Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach to cointegration was utilized for this study. Using the bounds test, the result from the ARDL model indicate that the variables for this study are cointegrated while the error correction term appeared significant and confirms that short-run disequilibria are corrected up to 100 percent annually. This shows that the real sectors are the backbone of the economy. The empirical results reveals that the real sector growth exert positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short-run and the long-run. Unlike previous findings that structural change must follow a certain pattern, our result implies that economic transformation in Nigeria requires a holistic policy framework to address each specific sector. We therefore, recommend that government should implement policies that will promote inter-sectoral linkages to achieve simultaneous growth in the real sectors. Nigerian trade performance should be improved through economic diversification and further availability of funds to private sector at competitive interest rate in order to produce internationally competitive products.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTION LAG (ARDL) APPROACH

This paper assessed the relationship between foreign direct investment and industrial sector growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020. The study employed time series secondary data On industrial sector output, foreign direct investment, trade openness (measured by trade percentage of gross domestic product), capital formation, and nominal exchange rate were obtained from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),2021 version. The data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and ADF unit root test. The ADF test revealed that industrial sector output and trade openness are stationary at level I(0). However, foreign direct investment, exchange rate and capital formation are not stationary but have no unit root at first difference I (1) at 1%, 5% and 10% significant value. The ARDL results confirmed the existence of long run and short run relationship between foreign direct investment and industrial sector growth in Nigeria. The study concludes that FDI has a noticeable connection with industrial sector in the short run and long run. The study recommends that government should take proper steps to create enabling business forum for FDI and these steps should be institutionalized and free of adverse political influence. The government should also remove red-tapes in business registrations, terminating unfair quota systems, providing visas speedily on merit, among others. Similarly, effective policies should be implemented to stabilize the Naira exchange rate in relation to other major currencies to boost investors’ confidence to invest in the country.

Public Debt, Fiscal Space, and Industrial Sector Performance in Nigeria

There has been a surge in the public debt profile of Nigeria in recent years. This paper examines the usefulness of deficit financing plans based on public debt in driving industrial sector output performance in an economy with sufficient borrowing space. The paper utilizes the ARDL cointegration technique to investigate both the short-run dynamics of the hypothesized relationship as well as the long-run dimension of the relationship among public debt, fiscal space, and industrial sector performance in Nigeria. Two variables, total debt stock and the debt service over exports ratio, proved statistically significant in the long run in explaining industrial output performance in Nigeria. Two variables, fiscal balance and the debt service over exports ratio were statistically significant and satisfactorily explain industrial output performance in Nigeria over the short-run period. These findings, in effect, confirm the applicability of the Keynesian general theory, which assigns a positive connotation to public indebtedness, whether in the attempt to design demand-side fiscal policy or to stimulate an economy in recession onto the path of balanced economic growth. One piece of emerging evidence from this study on Nigeria is that an increase in the debt service over exports ratio, which is a key measure of debt-related risks, does not provide evidence of any long-run damage to industrial output performance.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies On the Performance of the Industrial Sector in Nigeria: A Bounds Test Approach

This study explicitly digs into the separated impact of fiscal and monetary policies as government stabilization policies on the Nigerian industrial sector performance as a real sector, from 1986-2021, using the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. The data were filtered with use of Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test while Johansen cointegration test was used to justify the long-run relationship among all included variables. Annual data were gathered from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Indicators (various issues). It was discovered that government stabilization policies are potent determinants on the industrial sector output in Nigeria both in the short-run and long-run. An appropriate monetary and fiscal policies mix and adjustments to match the dynamic nature of the economy would not only develop and sustain the Nigerian industrial sector but also enhance the living standard of the people.

Regional financial integration, financial development and industrial sector growth in ECOWAS: Does institution matter?

Regional economies seek to promote growth through industrialisation and literature suggests that developing the financial system, integrating the financial system within a sound institutional framework can promote industrial output. This study fills the gap by examining the impact of financial development and regional financial integration on ECOWAS’ industrial sector. This study assesses whether regional financial integration and financial development have a stronger effect on the growth of the industrial sector of ECOWAS member countries that have high level of institutional quality than it does in countries with lower level. Major findings from the study reveals that deepening regional financial integration can only enhance the industrial output of ECOWAS member countries that has sound institutional quality framework; this is important and is a strong enhancing factor for member countries experiencing low industrial sector output. Credit to the private sector alone both for countries with low industrial output and countries with high industrial output does not improve the level of industrial performance. However, for countries that have low industrial output with a stronger institutional quality framework, increases in credit to the private sector will increase the level of industrial output compared to countries with a higher level of industrial output. Increasing the level of money in circulation alone does not improve industrial sector performance; the quantum channeled as credit to the private sector does. An improved institutional framework must be set in place together with an enhanced flow of credit to the private sector in ECOWAS.

Effects of Trade, Environment Quality and Human Capital on Industrial Sector Output in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

The study is conducted to explore the effectiveness of various variables i.e. Trade, Environmental Quality and Human Capital on Industrial Sector Output by taking data of 63 developing economies, Panel Unit root and Panel ARDL approaches are applied for empirical results. The supporting variable are selected from theoretical support like Labor, Capital, Broad Money, GDP deflator and human capital. The study explores that Money Supply, Human Capital, Government Expenditure and Capital Stock are increasing industrial sector output, but it is reduced by Carbon Dioxide Emission, Trade Openness, Labor Force and Price Level.

MONETARY POLICY AND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: MEASURING THE EXTENDED IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY

The study empirically investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on the performance of the industrial sector in Nigeria, and how this affect the general growth performance of the economy in the periods 1980-2018. Monetary policy variables used were money supply (M2t), monetary policy rate (Mprt), Treasury bill rate (Tbrt) and Credit to the private real sector (Credt). We also gauged the system with other control variables like gross fixed capital formation (gcft), inflation (????t) and exchange rate (exr). Utilizing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we found that any unanticipated shock on monetary policy rate and money supply growth will produce falling impact on industrial sector output that is consistent with no sign of convergence throughout the period. However, shocks to credit supply and treasury bill rate produces positive growth outliers at different magnitudes in the industrial sector. We also found statistically significant pass-through effect of monetary policy from the industrial sector to the general economy of at least 30 percent growth effect. A number of possible policy menu capable of deepening monetary policy-industrial performance nexus in Nigeria in years following the study have been prescribed in the studyincluding improved stock market development, bond market development and other credit channels that easily linked policy to the private sector for seamless policy transmission.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Industry Sector in Indonesia

Several studies show that there is a relationship between monetary policy and industrial sector output. The main objective of this research is to analyze the impact of monetary policy on the industrial sector. The appropriate model for time series data that is not stationary is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study involved quarterly data during 2010 to 2019 from Central Bank of Indonesia (BI) and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The empirical results indicate that the industrial sector has a positive response to the shock of the BI interest rate variable. On the other hand, the industrial sector gave a negative response to shocks from the consumer price index variable and the BI interest rate. The results of the variance decomposition show that the largest percentage contribution is shown by the inflation variable as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Keywords: BI rate, Monetary policy, Industry sector, VECMJEL Classification E52, E58

The Effect of Sectoral Output Volatility on Economic Growth in Ethiopia

This study examined the effect of sectoral output volatility on economic growth and the determinants of economic growth in the Ethiopian economy. The study used annual time series data spanning from 1981 to 2018 and included capital stock, working-age population, trade balance, and sectoral output volatility as an explanatory variable. Using the Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, the study found a long-run relationship between economic growth and economic growth explanatory variables. From the ARDL model, capital stock and trade balance (which has been negative throughout the study period) was found to have a positive and negative significant effect on the economic growth of Ethiopia, respectively. In the long-run, volatility of industrial and service sector output growth had a negative and statistically significant effect on the economic growth of Ethiopia. In recent years the role of agriculture in the Ethiopian economy, particularly in terms of contribution to the national GDP, has been declining—indicating the growing importance of service and industrial sectors. Therefore, smoothening and maintaining the positive sectoral output growth is advisable for the betterment of the economy. Besides, balancing the foreign trade and curbing unrestricted importation is recommended as long as economic growth is concerned.

Asymmetric pass through of oil price to Chinese economic growth: new evidence from industrial sectors

PurposeOil is crucial for industrial development. This paper investigates the impacts of oil price changes on China's industrial growth and examines whether the impacts are asymmetric. The estimations can help determine how oil price shocks are transmitted throughout the economy.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price and industrial sector output and uses monthly data. The recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed to illustrate the effects in both the short term and long term. Importantly, under NARDL framework, this paper examines whether the impacts are asymmetric by decomposing oil price shocks into their positive and negative partial sums.FindingsThe empirical results prove clear evidence of asymmetries in the short term, long term or both terms. Specifically, some sectors benefit from, rather than suffer from higher oil prices, even some energy-intensive sectors, i.e. C31 (Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals) and C32 (Smelting and Pressing of Non-ferrous Metals). However, the effects on some other energy-intensive sectors appear insignificant. Additionally, the results prove significantly negative responses in some sectors in the long term, and most of these sectors are in the top half of the ranking by energy consumptions.Originality/valueThis paper studies the economic responses at a disaggregated level by employing industry-level data. NARDL method is used to decompose oil price changes into their increases and decreases and investigate the asymmetries in the impacts of oil price changes.

Industrial Sector output and Its Relationship with Government Expenditure, Credit, and Foreign Aid in Nepal

The study's goal is to look into the state, long-run relationship, and casual link of government spending, commercial bank lending, and foreign aid to Nepal's industrial sector output. The research design for this study is descriptive and analytical. The secondary data are processed using Excel and EViews10 software from 1989/90 to 2018/19. The Johnsen Co-integration test and Granger Causality test describe and analyze the relation and causal impact of variables. The credit of commercial banks highly influences industrial output. The industrial sector output, government expenditure, loans, and foreign aid were Co-integrated or had long-run association ship. This paper contributes to the policy debate on whether government expenditure and foreign support to the industrial sector are justified or not. The author is unaware of another study, finding, and location related to industrial output and its affecting factors like government expenditure, loans, and foreign aid.

Dissecting the Threshold Effects of Financial Deepening on Industrial Sector Performance in Nigeria

This study seeks to examine the relationship between financial deepening and industrial sector performance in Nigeria. It relied on the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) technique, utilizing data obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) between 1980 and 2018. The specific objectives of the study are to examine the impact of financial deepening on industrial growth, and compute the threshold of financial deepening index required to spur industrial growth to its optimum level. To achieve the above, the study built its theoretical framework on the supply-leading hypothesis. The results reveal that financial deepening index exerts a positive impact on industrial sector growth. Also, financial deepening threshold of 36.8% is required to spur industrial sector output to its equilibrium steady-state, beyond which industrial growth declines. Furthermore, the Granger causality test supports the bi-directional hypothesis, hence, the study concludes that government policies and programs should be focused at persuading financial institutions to grant more credit facilities to private investors in the industrial sector.
 JEL Classification: C5 G2 I6

Industrial Output and Economic Growth in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Nigeria

The importance of the industrial sector output in enhancing sustainable economic growth has long been documented given that the sector is generally perceived as the engine of growth in an economy. This notwithstanding, Nigeria seems not to have put in place appropriate policies and programs that would engender the desired industrial output growth. The main aim of the paper, therefore, is to examine empirically the relationships between industrial sector output and the sustainable economic growth of Nigeria for the period 1981 to 2018. In doing this, descriptive statistics, unit root and co-integration tests as well as long run and short run analyses were conducted using the error correction model (ECM) of the econometrics. The empirical results from these estimation procedures were quite revealing. For instance, there existed a positive relationship between industrial sector output and economic growth though this was weak considering the magnitude of effects. Capital expenditure and lending rate exerted negative relationships on industrial output and these tended to have accounted for the current low level of industrial activities in the country. The stability test carried out in the paper showed a significant structural stability, which affirmed that these results have called for appropriate policy options that would bring about the desired industrial sector output growth patterns. Hence, strengthening the industrial sector activities in Nigeria as well as streamlining capital expenditure and lending rate to enhance the sector’s output has become imperative. This is typically true as it is the only path that would lead to the enhancement of the industrial sector output and, invariably, the sustainable economic development that Nigeria desperately desires.

Long and Short Run Relationship Between Agricultural and Industrial Sectors’ Growth in Ethiopia Economy: Application of Co-Integration and Error Correction Model

The objective of this paper was to examine the long run and short run impact of agricultural sector on the industrial sector and to determine the direction of causality in Ethiopia economy using annual time series data ranging from 1991-2015 obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. The time of analysis related was to the adoption of agricultural led industrialization (ADLI) strategy to bring food security, poverty reduction, and rapid economic growth objectives in country. The result of the Johansen Co-integration test showed that data were integrated of ordered one in both trace, and max-trace statistical tests showed that there was strong long run equilibrium relationship between agricultural and industrial sectors outputs. The Johansen error correction model (ECM) indicated that agricultural series output has long run significant and positive impact on industrial sector series output but not vice versa. In the long run, increase in agricultural sector’s by one percent, being other factors held constant, the marginal industrial sector output increase by 3.39% due to multiplier effect. Granger pair wise causality test revealed that there is unidirectional causality from industry to agriculture sector. In the long run, growth comes from agriculture to industry and in the short run; agricultural growth is caused by industrial growth. Therefore, the adoption of ADLI strategy should be strengthened the sectors forward and backward linkages to bring balance, and rapid sectorial growth to support the entire economic growth in the country. Keywords: Ethiopia, Industry, Integration, Co-Integration, VECM, ADLI. DOI: 10.7176/JPID/59-02 Publication date: February 28 th 2021