Individual Risk Counseling Research Articles

Evaluation of Cesarean section scar using saline contrast sonohysterography in women with previous Cesarean scar pregnancy.

To evaluate Cesarean scar defects using saline contrast sonohysterography (SCSH) in women with a history of Cesarean scar pregnancy (CSP). A cohort of 38 non-pregnant women with a history of CSP treated with combined local and systemic methotrexate was investigated prospectively by SCSH. For the purpose of analysis, they were classified, according to the modified Delphi consensus criteria for CSP in early gestation, into three subgroups based on the depth of the gestational sac herniation in the midsagittal plane. Subgroup A included eight (21.1%) cases, in which the largest part of the gestational sac protruded towards the uterine cavity; Subgroup B included 20 (52.6%) cases, in which the largest part of the gestational sac was embedded in the myometrium; and Subgroup C included 10 (26.3%) cases, in which the gestational sac was located partially outside the outer contour of the cervix or uterus. SCSH revealed that all women in Subgroup C had a uterine niche. The median niche length (P = 0.006) and depth (P = 0.015) were significantly greater in Subgroup C than in Subgroups A or B. The median residual myometrial thickness (RMT) was significantly lower in Subgroup C than in Subgroups A or B (P = 0.006). Women with prior CSP who had a gestational sac protruding beyond the serosal line had a significantly greater niche length and depth, and lower RMT. This knowledge may guide individualized risk counseling. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Preventing HIV Infection in Pregnant Women in Western Uganda Through a Comprehensive Antenatal Care-Based Intervention: An Implementation Study.

We implemented and assessed a comprehensive, antenatal care (ANC)-embedded strategy to prevent HIV seroconversions during pregnancy in Uganda. HIV-negative first-time ANC clients were administered an HIV risk assessment tool and received individual risk counseling. Those attending ANC without partners obtained formal partner invitation letters. After three months, repeat HIV testing was carried out; non-attending women were reminded via phone. We analyzed uptake and acceptance, HIV incidence rate, and risk behavior engagement. Among 1081 participants, 116 (10.7%) reported risk behavior engagement at first visit; 148 (13.7%) were accompanied by partners. At the repeat visit (n = 848), 42 (5%, p < 0.001) reported risk behavior engagement; 248 (29.4%, p < 0.001) women came with partners. Seroconversion occurred in two women. Increased odds for risk behavior engagement were found in rural clients (aOR 3.96; 95% CI 1.53-10.26), women with positive or unknown partner HIV-status (2.86; 1.18-6.91), and women whose partners abused alcohol (2.68; 1.15-6.26). Overall, the assessed HIV prevention strategy for pregnant women seemed highly feasible and effective. Risk behavior during pregnancy was reduced by half and partner participation rates in ANC doubled. The observed HIV incidence rate was almost four times lower compared to a pre-intervention cohort in the same study setting.

Preventing HIV infection in pregnancy: a comprehensive ANC-based intervention in Western Uganda

Abstract Introduction Pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa represent a high-risk group for HIV infection, but most endemic countries including Uganda do not engage specific HIV prevention measures in pregnancy. This longitudinal study aimed to assess outcomes of a comprehensive, ANC-embedded strategy to prevent seroconversions during pregnancy in Western Uganda. Methods HIV-negative ANC clients were administered an HIV risk assessment tool, followed by individual risk counselling. They received a fixed appointment for repeat HIV testing after three months. Those attending ANC without partners obtained formal partner invitation letters. At follow-up after three months, women not attending repeat testing were reminded via text message. Post-intervention risk behavior engagement was captured. We analyzed uptake of the intervention, HIV incidence rate, and associations with risk behavior. Results Of 1081 participants, 116 (10.7%) reported risk behavior engagement at first ANC visit, 148/1081 (13.7%) were accompanied by partners. The repeat test visit was attended by 848/1081 (78.5%) women, 42 (5.0%, p &amp;lt; 0.001) reported post-intervention risk behavior engagement, and 248 (29.4%, p &amp;lt; 0.001) were accompanied by partners. Seroconversion occurred in two women. In multivariable logistic regression, rural facility clients compared to urban ones (aOR 3.96; 95%CI 1.53-10.26), and women with positive or unknown partner HIV-status (aOR 2.86; 1.18-6.91) and partner alcohol abuse (aOR 2.68; 1.15-6.26) had increased odds for engagement in risk behavior despite the intervention. Conclusions After our intervention, risk behavior in pregnancy was reduced by half, and partner attendance had doubled compared to baseline. Our cohort showed a 0.76/100 women-years HIV incidence rate compared to 2.85 in pre-intervention data from the same setting. Clients from rural settings and women experiencing precarious partner situations require special attention to reduce risk behavior engagement during pregnancy. Key messages • HIV incidence in pregnancy in Western Uganda can be significantly reduced through a comprehensive, ANC-based counselling intervention. • Pregnant women from rural settings and those experiencing precarious partner situations require special attention regarding sexual risk behavior.

&lt;p&gt;Reasons for delayed admission after stroke: results of a qualitative and quantitative survey&lt;/p&gt;

Background: Acute stroke treatment shows time-dependent benefit to prevent disability. Public information campaigns and streamlining of emergency management have been performed, but still, only one-third of acute stroke patients are admitted >4.5 hrs after symptom onset.Patients and methods: We interviewed 15 patients, presenting >4.5 hrs after symptom onset, regarding symptom recognition, emotions and their first action after symptom onset. Recorded interviews were analyzed by standardized descriptive analysis. Based on the results, a quantitative survey was developed. One hundred consecutive stroke unit patients surveyed to compare patients presenting within 4.5 hrs and more than 4.5 hrs of symptom onset.Results: Patients predominantly noticed symptoms by themselves. The most commonly expressed feelings were uncertainty and shame. The most frequent action was waiting. Patients described moderate knowledge about stroke in general, but felt less informed regarding their stroke risk. Magazines (51%) were the most frequently indicated source of information, while general practitioners only accounted for 26%. Significantly better knowledge was shown in the answers on closed questions compared to open questions, although the same items were named.Conclusion: Shame, uncertainty and insufficient individual risk knowledge about stroke were the most important factors delaying admission after stroke. Individual risk counseling could be investigated to close the gap between general stroke knowledge and recognition of own stroke risk.

Chemotherapy and echocardiographic indices in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: the ONCO-ECHO study

The cardiotoxicity of chemotherapy (CTx) for non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas is not well recognized. In order to facilitate individual risk counseling for patients, we analyzed the effect of CTx on echocardiographic indices in regard to clinical data in patients treated for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL). A prospective multicenter ONCO-ECHO trial included 67 patients with NHL (45 patients with DLBCL (diffuse large B cell lymphoma) and 22 with non-DLBCL). Patients received standard CTx, primarily R-CHOP, CHOP, R-COP and COP regimens. Clinical data and echocardiographic indices were obtained at baseline, 3-, 6- and 12-month follow-up. The primary end point representing CTx cardiotoxicity was defined as a ≥ 10% decrease in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during 12-month observation. In a 12-month follow-up five (7.5%) deaths occurred, while no clinical manifestations of heart failure were reported. There was an increase in left ventricular end-systolic diameter (p = 0.002) and E/e′ index (p = 0.036) in 12-month observation. Preexisting coronary artery disease was associated with significant decrease in the ΔLVEF (p = 0.008), increase in ΔLVEDV (p = 0.03) and ΔLVESV (p = 0.02) and increase in the Δ left atrium diameter (p = 0.02); while history of arterial hypertension was related to significant decrease in the ΔLVEF (p = 0.039), diabetes mellitus was related to significant increase in the ΔE/e′ index (p = 0.002). The primary end point was reported in ten (14.9%) patients. There were no independent risk factors for cardiotoxicity in the study population. Chemotherapy administered to NHL patients may induce dilatation and impaired LV diastolic function. Standard cardiovascular risk factors may predispose patients to negative LV remodeling.

Short-term MRI measurements as predictors of EDSS progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: grey matter atrophy but not lesions are predictive in a real-life setting.

BackgroundMagnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the best biomarker of inflammatory disease activity in relapsing remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) so far but the association with disability is weak. Appearance of new MRI-lesions is used to evaluate response to immunotherapies in individual patients as well as being the most common primary outcome in phase-2 trials. Measurements of brain atrophy show promising outcomes in natural cohort studies and some phase-2 trials. From a theoretical perspective they might represent irreversible neurodegeneration and be more closely associated with disability. However, these atrophy measurements are not yet established as prognostic factors in real-life clinical routine. High field MRI has improved image quality and resolution and new methods to measure atrophy dynamics have become available.ObjectiveTo investigate the predictive value of MRI classification criteria in to high/low atrophy and inflammation groups, and to explore predictive capacity of two consecutive routine MRI scans for disability progression in RRMS in a real-life prospective cohort.Methods82 RRMS-patients (40 untreated, 42 treated with immunotherapies, mean age 40 years, median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 2, underwent two clinically indicated MRI scans (3 Tesla) within 5–14 months, and EDSS assessment after a mean of 3.0 (1.5–4.2) years. We investigated the predictive value of predefined classifications in low/high inflammatory and atrophy groups for EDSS progression (≥1.5 if baseline EDSS = 0, ≥1.0 if baseline EDSS <5, ≥0.5 for other) by chi-square tests and by analysis of variance (ANOVA). The classifications were based on current scientific or clinical recommendation (e.g., treatment response criteria). Brain atrophy was assessed with three different methods (SIENA, SIENAX, and FreeSurfer). Post-hoc analyses aimed to explore clinical data and dynamics of MRI outcomes as predictors in multivariate linear and logit models.ResultsProgression was observed in 24% of patients and was independent from treatment status. None of the predefined classifications were predictive for progression. Explorative post-hoc analyses found lower baseline EDSS and higher grey matter atrophy (FreeSurfer) as best predictors (R2 = 0.29) for EDSS progression and the accuracy was overall good (Area under the curve = 0.81).ConclusionBeside EDSS at baseline, short-term grey matter atrophy is predictive for EDSS progression in treated and untreated RRMS. The development of atrophy measurements for individual risk counselling and evaluation of treatment response seems possible, but needs further validation in larger cohorts. MRI-atrophy estimates from the FreeSurfer toolbox seem to be more reliable than older methods.

A Risk Model and Cost Analysis of Incisional Hernia After Elective, Abdominal Surgery Based Upon 12,373 Cases: The Case for Targeted Prophylactic Intervention.

Objectives:Incisional hernia (IH) remains a common, highly morbid, and costly complication. Modest progress has been realized in surgical technique and mesh technology; however, few advances have been achieved toward understanding risk and prevention. In light of the increasing emphasis on prevention in today's health care environment and the billions in costs for surgically treated IH, greater focus on predictive risk models is needed.Methods:All patients undergoing gastrointestinal or gynecologic procedures from January 1, 2005 to June 1, 2013, within the University of Pennsylvania Health System were identified. Comorbidities and operative characteristics were assessed. The primary outcome was surgically treated IH after index procedures. Patients with prior hernia, less than 1-year follow-up, or emergency surgical procedures were excluded. Cox hazard regression modeling with bootstrapped validation, risk factor stratification, and assessment of model performance were conducted.Results:A total of 12,373 patients with a 3.5% incidence of surgically treated IH (follow-up 32.2 ± 26.6 months) were identified. The cost of surgical treatment of IH and management of associated complications exceeded $17.5 million. Notable independent risk factors for IH were ostomy reversal (HR = 2.76), recent chemotherapy (HR = 2.04), bariatric surgery (HR = 1.78), smoking history (HR = 1.74), liver disease (HR = 1.60), and obesity (HR = 1.96). High-risk patients (20.6%) developed IH compared with 0.5% of low-risk patients (C-statistic = 0.78).Conclusions:This study demonstrates an internally validated preoperative risk model of surgically treated IH after 12,000 elective, intra-abdominal procedures to provide more individualized risk counseling and to better inform evidence-based algorithms for the role of prophylactic mesh.

Cardiovascular disease after treatment for Hodgkin's lymphoma: an analysis of nine collaborative EORTC-LYSA trials

Cardiovascular disease after treatment is an important concern in cancer survivors. However, knowledge of cardiotoxicity is limited by the retrospective nature of data, which often does not contain details of treatment exposure. To facilitate individual risk counselling of patients, we aimed to quantify the effect of anthracyclines, vinca-alkaloids, and radiotherapy on the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients treated for Hodgkin's lymphoma. In 2009-10, a Life Situation Questionnaire (LSQ) was distributed to patients by mail to assess late-onset effects of Hodgkin's lymphoma treatment in patients who were included in nine successive European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA, now renamed LYSA) randomised trials between 1964 and 2004. We reconstructed the mean radiation doses to the heart and carotid arteries and the cumulative doses of anthracyclines and vinca-alkaloids for all patients. Incidence of cardiovascular disease was reported during follow-up and updated through the LSQ. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to quantify the effect of chemotherapy and radiation on the risk of a first cardiovascular disease event. Information of primary treatment was complete for 6039 patients (median age at diagnosis 30 years [IQR 23-40]; median length of follow-up 9 years [6-14]). 1919 patients responded to the LSQ. 1238 first cardiovascular events were recorded in 703 patients, most were ischaemic heart disease (132 [19%]), congestive heart failure (85 [12%]), arrhythmia (110 [16%]), and valvular disease (77 [11%]). The mean heart radiation dose per 1 Gy increase (HR 1·015 [95% CI 1·006-1·024], p=0·0014) and the dose of anthracyclines per 50 mg/m(2) increase in cumulative dose (1·077 [1·021-1·137], p=0·0064) were significant predictors of cardiovascular disease. Cumulative dose of vinblastine (unadjusted model p=0·77), vincristine (p=0·36), and mean radiation dose to the left (p=0·41) or right (p=0·70) internal carotid artery did not predict for cardiovascular events. Quantification of the increased cardiovascular risk with specific doses of radiation and anthracycline exposure will enable a quantitative assessment of the optimum combination of systemic therapy and radiation, which will help clinicians to balance the risks and benefits of different regimens for individual patients. Rigshospitalet Research Committee, the EORTC Cancer Research Fund, and the Sally Snowman Survivorship Fellowship.

Abstract P2-14-05: Sporadic breast cancer risk assessment in women without family history and biopsy using the OncoVue® polyfactorial model

Abstract Background: The majority of breast cancer cases are considered to be sporadic and occur in women without a strong family history. Accurate estimation of a woman's risk of developing breast cancer is essential for guiding decisions regarding surveillance and prevention. The Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) uses only clinical factors and has been shown to be of marginal value for individual risk counseling. Even though the BCRAT risks for women without a biopsy and no first degree relative with breast cancer are low, a significant fraction of cases occur in these women. OncoVue® is a logistic regression model developed from individual genetic and personal factor data from a large case-control study. In three independent validation populations, including a blinded validation, OncoVue has been shown to significantly outperform BCRAT. Here we compare OncoVue to the BCRAT in stratifying risk in women without a first degree relative with breast cancer that have never had a breast biopsy. Materials and Methods: Absolute risks for Caucasian participants ranging in age from 35 to 89 were analyzed for a case-control study conducted in six distinct geographic regions of the United States. This analysis focused on participants that had never had a biopsy and reported no first degree relatives with breast cancer (cases prior to diagnosis/controls at time of enrollment). DNAs from a total of 2729 women (842 cases and 1887 controls) were genotyped for 22 SNP variants and genotype information was combined with clinical risk information to calculate 5-year and lifetime risks. Clinical factor information alone was used to calculate BCRAT risk scores for comparison to OncoVue. Results: The 5-year risks for OncoVue ranged from 0.10 to 5.0% (50-fold) compared to 0.20 to 3.0% (15-fold) for BCRAT risks. OncoVue lifetime risks ranged from 2.4 to 25.0% (11-fold) compared to 4 to 16% (4-fold) for BCRAT risks. The OncoVue model 5-year risk placed 11% of this sub-population of controls at ≥ 2.0% risk compared to the BCRAT which placed only 3.5% at this risk. The BCRAT did not place anyone at a lifetime risk over 16% while OncoVue placed 10% of this sub-population of controls above 16%. The Odds Ratio (OR) was determined at increasing model risk output levels. Over comparable ranges, OncoVue 5-year risks exhibited statistically significant ORs while BCRAT ORs did not reach significance. OncoVue associations for lifetime risk reach high levels. For example, an OR of 5.0 (p = 0.03) was observed at a risk level ≥ 23%. Conclusion: The OncoVue model stratifies risk over a much wider range than the BCRAT in this group of women at low risk by traditional methods. In the 5-year risk frame OncoVue exhibited improved performance in estimating individual risk compared to the BCRAT. Due to the lack of any elevated lifetime risks generated by the BCRAT, a direct comparison of lifetime risks for OncoVue to the BCRAT was not possible. The OncoVue model which uses both genetics and clinical factors significantly improves individualized breast cancer risk estimation. These results demonstrate the importance of the genetic component of the OncoVue model in accurately estimating individual risk of sporadic breast cancer. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2013;73(24 Suppl): Abstract nr P2-14-05.

OC004—Fetal Exposure To Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs (Nsaid) And Spontaneous Abortions

e2 Volume 35 Number 8S Prague, Czech Republic; Poison Control, Bergamo, Italy; and Clinical pharmacology & Toxicology Unit, Department of Pharmacology, Ataturk Training and Research Hospital, Izmir Katip Celebi University, Izmir, Turkey Introduction: Mirtazapine is a noradrenergic and serotonergic antidepressant mainly acting through blockade of presynaptic alpha-2 receptors. Published data on pregnancy outcome after exposure to mirtazapine are scarce. This study addresses the risk associated with exposure to mirtazapine during pregnancy. Patients (or Materials) and Methods: Multicenter (n = 11), observational prospective cohort study comparing pregnancy outcomes after exposure to mirtazapine with 2 matched control groups: exposure to any selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) as a diseasematched control group, and general controls with no exposure to medication known to be teratogenic or to any antidepressant. Data were collected by members of the European Network of Teratology Information Services (ENTIS) during individual risk counseling between 1995 and 2011. Standardized procedures for data collection were used in each center. Results: A total of 357 pregnant women exposed to mirtazapine at any time during pregnancy were included in the study and compared with 357 pregnancies from each control group. The rate of major birth defects between the mirtazapine and the SSRI group did not differ significantly (4.5% vs 4.2%; unadjusted odds ratio, 1.1; 95% confidence interval, 0.5–2.3, P = 0.9). A trend toward a higher rate of birth defects in the mirtazapine group compared with general controls did not reach statistical significance (4.2% vs 1.9%; OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 0.9–6.3; P = 0.08). The crude rate of spontaneous abortions did not differ significantly between the mirtazapine, the SSRI, and the general control groups (9.5% vs 10.4% vs 8.4%; P = 0.67), neither did the rate of deliveries resulting in live births (79.6% vs 84.3% in both control groups; P = 0.15). However, a higher rate of elective pregnancy-termination was observed in the mirtazapine group compared with SSRI and general controls (7.8% vs 3.4% vs 5.6%; P = 0.03). Premature birth (< 37 weeks) (10.6% vs 10.1% vs 7.5%; P = 0.38), gestational age at birth (median, 39 weeks; interquartile range (IQR), 38–40 in all groups; P = 0.29), and birth weight (median, 3320 g; IQR, 2979–3636 vs 3230 g; IQR, 2910–3629 vs 3338 g; IQR, 2967–3650; P = 0.34) did not differ significantly between the groups. Conclusion: This study did not observe a statistically significant difference in the rate of major birth defects between mirtazapine, SSRI-exposed, and nonexposed pregnancies. A slightly higher rate of birth defects was, however, observed in the mirtazapine and SSRI groups compared with the low rate of birth defects in our general controls. Overall, the pregnancy outcome after mirtazapine exposure in this study is very similar to that of the SSRI-exposed control group. Disclosure of Interest: None declared.

Abstract A107: Epigenetic markers for tissue-based breast cancer risk stratification

Abstract Effective breast cancer risk management requires accurate breast cancer risk stratification. The Gail model is the most widely used and best validated epidemiological risk assessment model. Though well calibrated, this model is not ideal for individualized risk counseling as it is only 8% better than chance for discriminating between women with breast cancer and unaffected women. Biologically based approaches, such as cytological assessment of nipple aspirate fluid or assessment of mammographic density, only marginally improve the discrimination of the Gail model. Promoter region methylation is one of the earliest identifiable molecular changes during breast carcinogenesis. We have previously shown that RASSF1A methylation, detected in benign breast epithelium obtained by random periareolar fine needle aspiration biopsy (RP-FNA), is associated with increased breast cancer risk, but this was based primarily on correlation with Gail risk and not cancer case prediction. A clinically useful epigenetic risk stratification panel would be ideally suited to benign RP-FNA samples and would provide a high degree of discrimination between benign samples from women with cancer and unaffected women. We performed a genome-wide 5-aza-2’-deoxycytidine (5-aza) induced gene re-expression screen in 6 breast cancer cell lines and 6 early passage primary benign breast epithelial cell cultures to identify potential epigenetic markers of breast cancer risk. MSP assays were designed for the 286 genes that were 1) expressed in benign breast epithelium, 2) not expressed in cancer, and 3) induced by 5-aza in cancer, or 4) had previously shown some potential for breast cancer risk stratification. 20 genes were identified that were frequently methylated in primary breast cancer, rarely methylated in benign RP-FNA samples and never methylated in lymphocytes. Quantitative multiplex methylation-specific PCR assays were designed and optimized for the 17 best genes and then assessed in an archival RP-FNA sample set that included 146 samples from unaffected women, 59 benign samples from breast cancer patients, and 52 primary breast cancers. A three marker panel including PSAT1, HS3ST2, and GNE provided the best discrimination between benign samples from cancer patients and unaffected women. One or more of these markers was scored as positive in 46% of benign samples from cancer patients, 8% of samples from unaffected patients, and 72% of primary cancers. The odds ratio for cancer case prediction based on assessment of benign RP-FNA samples was 9.42 (95% CI 4.31 — 20.59, p &amp;lt; 0.0001). These observations will be validated in an independent set of 160 sample prospectively acquired for this purpose. These data suggest that a limited epigenetic marker panel can detect a small population of breast cells accessible by RP-FNA whose presence is associated with significantly increased breast cancer risk. Citation Information: Cancer Prev Res 2010;3(12 Suppl):A107.

Vitamin K antagonists and pregnancy outcome

Vitamin K antagonists (VKA) are known to act as teratogens; however, there is still uncertainty about the relative risk for birth defects and the most sensitive period. In a multi-centre (n = 12), observational, prospective study we compared 666 pregnant women exposed to phenprocoumon (n = 280), acenocoumarol (n = 226), fluindione (n = 99), warfarin (n = 63) and phenindione (n = 2) to a non-exposed control group (n = 1,094). Data were collected by institutes collaborating in the European Network of Teratology Information Services (ENTIS) during individual risk counselling between 1988 and 2004. Main outcome measures were coumarin embryopathy and other birth defects, miscarriage rate, birth-weight, and prematurity. The rate of major birth defects after 1st trimester exposure was significantly increased (OR 3.86, 95% CI 1.86-8.00). However, there were only two coumarin embryopathies (0.6%; both phenprocoumon). Prematurity was more frequent (16.0% vs. 7.6%, OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.76-3.86), mean gestational age at delivery (37.9 vs.39.4, p<0.001), and mean birth weight of term infants (3,166 g vs. 3,411 g; p < 0.001) were lower compared to the controls. Using the methodology of survival analysis, miscarriage rate reached 42% vs. 14% (hazard ratio 3.36; 95% CI 2.28-4.93). In conclusion, use of VKA during pregnancy increases the risk of structural defects and other adverse pregnancy outcomes. The risk for coumarin embryopathy is, however, very small, in particular when therapy during the 1(st) trimester did not take place later than week 8 after the 1(st) day of the last menstrual period. Therefore, elective termination of a wanted pregnancy is not recommended if (inadvertent) exposure took place in early pregnancy. Close follow-up by the obstetrician including level II ultrasound should be recommended in any case of VKA exposure during pregnancy.

Psychological responses to prenatal NTS counseling and the uptake of invasive testing in women of advanced maternal age

This study examines women’s psychological responses to prenatal group genetic counseling, and to subsequent individualized risk counseling. All women ( N=123) aged 35 and older underwent nuchal translucency screening (NTS), a prenatal ultrasound screening test. After group counseling, decisional conflict decreased significantly among those reporting at baseline having made a decision about invasive testing ( t(222)=2.00, P=0.014) and for those who were uncertain ( t(222)=5.74, P<0.0005). After receiving NT-adjusted risks, decisional conflict decreased further for those uncertain about testing at baseline ( t(222)=4.64, P<0.0005). There was no change in risk perception and anxiety after group counseling. After NT-adjusted risks were communicated, risk perception decreased significantly ( t(230)=5.02, P<0.0005), as did anxiety ( t(115)=7.91, P<0.005). Despite reassuring NTS results, the uptake rate for prenatal invasive testing was 78.4%. Risk perception, anxiety, and decisional conflict decreased after individual counseling for reassuring NTS results, but the uptake of invasive testing remained high.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk.

We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective.

HIV Sexual Risk Reduction Interventions With Heterosexual Men: The Forgotten Group

This paper reviews published evaluations (through fall 1998) of HIV sexual risk reduction programs conducted in the United States that have targeted adult heterosexual men. The review was limited to studies that provided a male-specific analysis of intervention effects on sexual risk behavior. Fifteen of 20 peer-reviewed studies meeting inclusion criteria demonstrated that HIV sexual risk reduction programs can be effective in reducing men's heterosexual risk behavior, although effect sizes were usually modest. Outcomes varied and included biological markers and self-reported behavior. No clear pattern distinguished effective from ineffective interventions. All intervention types (information-only; condom skills/distribution; behavioral skills–focused; HIV counseling and testing; individual risk counseling; street outreach) showed some efficacy, and there were no discernable differences by targeted population. Both group and individual delivery formats were effective. The review includes a methodologic critique, identifies research gaps, and provides recommendations for future research efforts with heterosexually active men.

Experiences with risk estimates for carriers of chromosomal reciprocal translocations.

The risk estimates for individual carriers of ten different familial reciprocal translocations detected among 500 couples with reproductive failures are presented. These were established by application of the empirical data analysed by Stengel-Rutkowski et al. (1988) and the guidelines given in Stene & Stengel-Rutkowski (1988). Different risks were estimated for unbalanced offspring at birth or at second trimester prenatal diagnosis for abortions, or stillbirths/early deaths. These risk estimates varied considerably from translocation to translocation. Carriers of five translocations had risks for offspring with single-segment imbalances. The birth risk figures ranged from 0.1% to 13.8%. Carriers of five other translocations had risks for double-segment imbalances with birth risks ranging from 0% to 3.2%. The estimated risk figures were independent of the method of ascertainment. Among the parents of the index cases we found nine maternal carriers and only one paternal carrier. This presentation illustrates the need for individual risk counselling of each carrier with reciprocal translocation regarding further family planning.