Individual Polygenic Risk Score Research Articles

Rare variant analyses in 51,256 type 2 diabetes cases and 370,487 controls reveal the pathogenicity spectrum of monogenic diabetes genes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) genome-wide association studies (GWASs) often overlook rare variants as a result of previous imputation panels' limitations and scarce whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data. We used TOPMed imputation and WGS to conduct the largest T2D GWAS meta-analysis involving 51,256 cases of T2D and 370,487 controls, targeting variants with a minor allele frequency as low as 5 × 10-5. We identified 12 new variants, including a rare African/African American-enriched enhancer variant near the LEP gene (rs147287548), associated with fourfold increased T2D risk. We also identified a rare missense variant in HNF4A (p.Arg114Trp), associated with eightfold increased T2D risk, previously reported in maturity-onset diabetes of the young with reduced penetrance, but observed here in a T2D GWAS. We further leveraged these data to analyze 1,634 ClinVar variants in 22 genes related to monogenic diabetes, identifying two additional rare variants in HNF1A and GCK associated with fivefold and eightfold increased T2D risk, respectively, the effects of which were modified by the individual's polygenic risk score. For 21% of the variants with conflicting interpretations or uncertain significance in ClinVar, we provided support of being benign based on their lack of association with T2D. Our work provides a framework for using rare variant GWASs to identify large-effect variants and assess variant pathogenicity in monogenic diabetes genes.

Instability of high polygenic risk classification and mitigation by integrative scoring.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) continue to improve with novel methods and expanding genome-wide association studies. Healthcare and third-party laboratories are increasingly deploying PRS reports to patients. Although new PRS show improving strengths of association with traits, it is unknown how the classification of high polygenic risk changes across individual PRS for the same trait. Here, we determined classification of high genetic risk from all cataloged PRS for three complex traits. While each PRS for each trait demonstrated generally consistent population-level strengths of associations, classification of individuals in the top 10% of each PRS distribution varied widely. Using the PRSMix framework, which incorporates information across several PRS to improve prediction, we generated sequential add-one-in (AOI) PRSMix_AOI scores based on order of publication. PRSMix_AOI n led to improved PRS performance and more consistent high-risk classification compared with the PRS n . The PRSMix_AOI approach provides more stable and reliable classification of high-risk as new PRS continue to be generated toward PRS standardization.

Evaluating polygenic risk scores for predicting cardiometabolic traits and disease risks in the Taiwan Biobank

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension are common comorbidities and, along with hyperlipidemia, serve as risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) on cardiometabolic traits related to T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia and the incidence of these three diseases in Taiwan Biobank samples. Using publicly available, large-scale Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) summary statistics, we constructed cross-ethnic PRSs for T2D, hypertension, body mass index (BMI), and 9 quantitative traits typically used to define the three diseases. A composite PRS (cPRS) for each of the 9 traits was constructed by aggregating the significant PRSs of its genetically correlated traits. The associations of each 9 trait at baseline as well as the change of trait values during a 3 to 6-year follow-up period with its cPRS were evaluated. The predictive performances of cPRSs in predicting future incidences of T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were assessed. The cPRSs had significant associations with baseline and changes of trait values in 3-6 years and explained a higher proportion of variance for all traits than individual PRSs. Furthermore, models incorporating disease-related cPRSs, along with clinical features and relevant trait measurements achieved area under the curves (AUC) values of 87.8%, 83.7%, and 75.9% for predicting future T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia in 4 to 6 years, respectively. This study revealed the complex genetic correlation structures of quantitative traits associated with the three diseases and underscores the potential of PRSs to improve future prediction models for T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia.

Genetic Risk Assessment of Degenerative Eye Disease (GRADE): study protocol of a prospective assessment of polygenic risk scores to predict diagnosis of glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration

BackgroundGlaucoma and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) account for a substantial portion of global blindness. Both conditions are highly heritable, with recognised monogenic and polygenic inheritance patterns. Current screening guidelines lack decisive recommendations. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) allow for cost-effective broad population risk stratification for these conditions. The predictive potential of PRS could facilitate earlier diagnosis and treatment, and prevent unnecessary vision loss.MethodsThe Genetic Risk Assessment of Degenerative Eye disease (GRADE) study is a prospective study designed to generate high-quality evidence about the feasibility of PRS to stratify individuals from the general population, enabling identification of those at highest risk of developing glaucoma or AMD. The targeted recruitment is 1000 individuals aged over 50 years, from which blood or saliva samples will be used for genotyping and an individual PRS for glaucoma and AMD will be derived. Individuals with PRS values in the bottom decile (n = 100), top decile (n = 100) and middle 80% (n = 100) for both glaucoma and AMD will undergo a detailed eye examination for glaucoma and/or AMD.DiscussionThe primary objective will be to compare the prevalence of glaucoma and AMD cases between low, intermediate, and high PRS risk groups. We expect to find a higher prevalence of both diseases in the high PRS risk group, as compared to the middle and low risk groups. This prospective study will assess the clinical validity of a PRS for glaucoma and AMD in the general Australian population. Positive findings will support the implementation of PRS into clinical practice.

Polygenic risk scores and the prediction of onset of mood and psychotic disorders in adolescents and young adults.

To examine whether polygenic risk scores (PRS) for neuroticism, depression, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia are higher in individuals manifesting trans-diagnostic risk factors for the development of major mental disorders and whether PRS enhance prediction of early onset full-threshold disorders. Using data from the Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study, we examined individual PRS for neuroticism, depression, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, recorded evidence of subthreshold syndromes and family history of mood and/or psychotic disorders and noted progression to trans-diagnostic clinical caseness (onset of major mental disorders) at follow-up. We undertook multivariate, receiver operating curve and logistic regression analyses that were adjusted for known variables of influence (age, twin status, and so on). Of 1473 eligible participants (female = 866, 59%; mean age 26.3 years), 28% (n = 409) met caseness criteria for a mood and/or psychotic disorder. All PRS were higher in cases versus non-cases but associations with different levels of risk were inconsistent. The prediction of caseness (reported as area under the curve with 95% confidence intervals [CI]) improved from 0.68 (95% CI: 0.65, 0.71) when estimated using clinical risk factors alone up to 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.73) when PRS were added to the model. Logistic regression identified five variables that optimally classified individuals according to caseness: age, sex, individual risk characteristics, PRS for depression and mental health case status of cotwins or siblings. The findings need replication. However, this exploratory study suggests that combining PRS with other risk factors has the potential to improve outcome prediction in youth.

Modifiable vascular risk factors contribute to stroke in 1080 NOTCH3 R544C carriers in Taiwan Biobank.

Previous studies have suggested cardiovascular risk factors increase the risk of not only common sporadic stroke but also of stroke in patients with monogenic stroke disorders including CADASIL. We investigated the effects of the NOTCH3 Arg544Cys (R544C) variant and associated vascular risk factors on stroke in the Taiwanese population. This study was conducted using data from the Taiwan Biobank, consisting of at least 130,000 Han Chinese participants. The genotype was derived from customized genome-wide arrays for 650,000 to 750,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Individuals with NOTCH3 R544C were subsequently matched with noncarriers based on the propensity score at a 1:10 ratio by demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. The odds ratio (OR) for stroke or other phenotypes in NOTCH3 R544C carriers and matched noncarriers was then calculated. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed on cardiovascular risk factors in NOTCH3 R544C carriers with and without stroke. The polygenic risk score (PRS) model, adopted from the UK Biobank, was then applied to evaluate the role of NOTCH3 R544C in stroke. From the 114,282 participants with both genotype and questionnaire results, 1080 (0.95%) harbored the pathogenic NOTCH3 R544C variant. When compared to the matched controls (n = 10,800), the carriers presented with a history of stroke (OR: 2.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.45, 4.37)), dementia (OR: 30.1, 95% CI (3.13, 289.43)), and sibling history of stroke (OR: 2.48, 95% CI (1.85, 3.34)) phenotypes. The risk of stroke increased with every 10-year increase in age (p = 0.006, Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test). Among NOTCH3 R544C carriers, 16 (1.3%) of the 1080 carriers with a stroke history were older, male, and more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and a family history of stroke. In the stepwise multivariate analysis, hypertension (OR: 11.28, 95% CI (3.54, 43.3)) and diabetes mellitus (OR: 4.10, 95% CI (1.31, 12.4)) were independently associated with stroke. Harboring the NOTCH3 R544C variant in the Taiwan Biobank is comparable with a 6.74 standard deviations increase in individual's polygenic risk score for stroke. While the NOTCH3 R544C variant alone increased the risk of stroke, modifiable vascular risk factors also played a role in the occurrence of stroke in Taiwanese community-dwelling individuals carrying the NOTCH3 variant.

Pitfalls of predicting age-related traits by polygenic risk scores.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are a method increasingly used to capture the combined effect of genome-wide significant variants and those which individually do not show genome-wide significant association but are likely to contribute to the risk of developing diseases. However, their practical use incurs complications and inconsistencies that so far limit their clinical applicability. The aims of the present review are to discuss the PRS for age-related diseases and to highlight pitfalls and limitations of PRS prediction accuracy due to ageing and mortality effects. We argue that the PRS is widely used but the individual's PRS values differ substantially depending on the number of genetic variants included, the discovery GWAS and the method employed to generate them. Moreover, for neurodegenerative disorders, although an individual's genetics do not change with age, the actual score depends on the age of the sample used in the discovery GWAS and is likely to reflect the individual's disease risk at this particular age. Improvement of PRS prediction accuracy for neurodegenerative disorders will come from two sides, both the precision of clinical diagnoses, and a careful attention to the age distribution in the underlying samples and validation of the prediction in longitudinal studies.

A polygenic risk score to help discriminate primary adrenal insufficiency of different etiologies.

Autoimmune Addison's disease (AAD) is the most common cause of primary adrenal insufficiency (PAI). Despite its exceptionally high heritability, tools to estimate disease susceptibility in individual patients are lacking. We hypothesized that polygenic risk score (PRS) for AAD could help investigate PAI pathogenesis in pediatric patients. We here constructed and evaluated a PRS for AAD in 1223 seropositive cases and 4097 controls. To test its clinical utility, we reevaluated 18 pediatric patients, whose whole genome we also sequenced. We next explored the individual PRS in more than 120 seronegative patients with idiopathic PAI. The genetic susceptibility to AAD-quantified using PRS-was on average 1.5 standard deviations (SD) higher in patients compared with healthy controls (p<2e-16), and 1.2 SD higher in the young patients compared with the old (p=3e-4). Using the novel PRS, we searched for pediatric patients with strikingly low AAD susceptibility and identified cases of monogenic PAI, previously misdiagnosed as AAD. By stratifying seronegative adult patients by autoimmune comorbidities and disease duration we could delineate subgroups of PRS suggesting various disease etiologies. The PRS performed well for case-control differentiation and susceptibility estimation in individual patients. Remarkably, a PRS for AAD holds promise as a means to detect disease etiologies other than autoimmunity.

Exploration of cannabis use and polygenic risk scores on the psychotic symptom progression of a FEP cohort

Cannabis use is highly prevalent in first-episode psychosis (FEP) and plays a critical role in its onset and prognosis, but the genetic underpinnings promoting both conditions are poorly understood. Current treatment strategies for cannabis cessation in FEP are clearly inefficacious. Here, we aimed to characterize the association between cannabis-related polygenic risk scores (PRS) on cannabis use and clinical course after a FEP. A cohort of 249 FEP individuals were evaluated during 12 months. Symptom severity was measured with the Positive and Negative Severity Scale and cannabis use with the EuropASI scale. Individual PRS for lifetime cannabis initiation (PRSCI) and cannabis use disorder (PRSCUD) were constructed. Current cannabis use was associated with increased positive symptoms. Cannabis initiation at younger ages conditioned the 12-month symptom progression. FEP patients with higher cannabis PRSCUD reported increased baseline cannabis use. PRSCI was associated with the course of negative and general symptomatology over follow-up. Cannabis use and symptom progression after a FEP were modulated by cannabis PRS, suggesting that lifetime initiation and use disorders may have partially independent genetic factors. These exploratory results may be the first step to identify those FEP patients more vulnerable to cannabis use and worse outcomes to ultimately develop tailored treatments.

Evaluating the Genetic Effects of Gut Microbiota on the Development of Neuroticism and General Happiness: A Polygenic Score Analysis and Interaction Study Using UK Biobank Data.

Limited efforts have been invested in exploring the interaction effects between genetic factors and gut microbiota on neuroticism and general happiness. The polygenic risk scores (PRS) of gut microbiota were calculated from individual-level genotype data of the UK Biobank cohort. Linear regression models were then used to assess the associations between individual PRS of gut microbiota and mental traits and interaction analysis was performed by PLINK2.0. KOBAS-i was used to conduct gene ontology (GO) enrichment analysis of the identified genes. We observed suggestive significant associations between neuroticism and PRS for the genus Bifidobacterium (rank-normal transformation, RNT) (beta = -1.10, P = 4.16 × 10-3) and the genus Desulfovibrio (RNT) (beta = 0.54, P = 7.46 × 10-3). PRS for the genus Bifidobacterium (hurdle binary, HB) (beta = 1.99, P = 5.24 × 10-3) and the genus Clostridium (RNT) (beta = 1.26, P = 9.27 × 10-3) were found to be suggestive positively associated with general happiness. Interaction analysis identified several significant genes that interacted with gut microbiota, such as RORA (rs575949009, beta = -45.00, P = 1.82 × 10-9) for neuroticism and ASTN2 (rs36005728, beta = 19.15, P = 3.37 × 10-8) for general happiness. Our study results support the genetic effects of gut microbiota on the development of neuroticism and general happiness.

Validation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Coronary Heart Disease in a Middle Eastern Cohort Using Whole Genome Sequencing.

Enthusiasm for using polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in clinical practice is tempered by concerns about their portability to diverse ancestry groups, thus motivating genome-wide association studies in non-European ancestry cohorts. We conducted a genome-wide association study for coronary heart disease in a Middle Eastern cohort using whole genome sequencing and assessed the performance of 6 PRSs developed with methods including LDpred (PGS000296), metaGRS (PGS000018), Pruning and Thresholding (PGS000337), and an EnsemblePRS we developed. Additionally, we evaluated the burden of rare variants in lipid genes in cases and controls. Whole genome sequencing at 30× coverage was performed in 1067 coronary heart disease cases (mean age=59 years; 70.3% males) and 6170 controls (mean age=40 years; 43.5% males). The majority of PRSs performed well; odds ratio (OR) per 1 SD increase (OR1sd) was highest for PGS000337 (OR1sd=1.81, 95% CI [1.66-1.98], P=3.07×10-41). EnsemblePRS performed better than individual PRSs (OR1sd=1.8, 95% CI [1.66-1.96], P=5.89×10-44). The OR for the 10th decile versus the remaining deciles was >3.2 for PGS000337, PGS000296, PGS000018, and reached 4.58 for EnsemblePRS. Of 400 known genome-wide significant loci, 33 replicated at P<10-4. However, the 9p21 locus did not replicate. Six suggestive (P<10-5) new loci/genes with plausible biological function were identified (eg, CORO7, RBM47, PDE4D). The burden of rare functional variants in LDLR, APOB, PCSK9, and ANGPTL4 was greater in cases than controls. Overall, we demonstrate that PRSs derived from European ancestry genome-wide association studies performed well in a Middle Eastern cohort, suggesting these could be used in the clinical setting while ancestry-specific PRSs are developed.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Subclinical Coronary Artery Disease in Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

In people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH), individual polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) events. Whether PRSs are associated with subclinical CAD is unknown. In Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants of European descent, we defined subclinical CAD as presence of soft, mixed, or high-risk plaque (SMHRP) on coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography, or as participants in the top tertile of the study population's coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, using noncontrast CT. We obtained univariable and multivariable odds ratios (ORs) for subclinical CAD endpoints based on nongenetic risk factors, and validated genome-wide PRSs built from single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with CAD, carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), or longevity in the general population. We included 345 genotyped participants (median age, 53 years; 89% male; 96% suppressed HIV RNA); 172 and 127 participants had SMHRP and CAC, respectively. CAD-associated PRS and IMT-associated PRS were associated with SMHRP and CAC (all P < .01), but longevity PRS was not. Participants with unfavorable CAD-PRS (top quintile) had an adjusted SMHRP OR = 2.58 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-5.67), and a CAC OR = 3.95 (95% CI, 1.45-10.77) vs. bottom quintile. Unfavorable nongenetic risk (top vs. bottom quintile) was associated with adjusted SMHRP OR = 24.01 (95% CI, 9.75-59.11), and a CAC-OR = 65.07 (95% CI, 18.48-229.15). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased when we added CAD-PRS to nongenetic risk factors (SMHRP: 0.75 and 0.78, respectively; CAC: 0.80 and 0.83, respectively). In Swiss PWH, subclinical CAD is independently associated with an individual CAD-associated PRS. Combining nongenetic and genetic cardiovascular risk factors provided the most powerful subclinical CAD prediction.

Is genetic risk of ADHD mediated via dopaminergic mechanism? A study of functional connectivity in ADHD and pharmacologically challenged healthy volunteers with a genetic risk profile

Recent GWAS allow us to calculate polygenic risk scores for ADHD. At the imaging level, resting-state fMRI analyses have given us valuable insights into changes in connectivity patterns in ADHD patients. However, no study has yet attempted to combine these two different levels of investigation. For this endeavor, we used a dopaminergic challenge fMRI study (L-DOPA) in healthy participants who were genotyped for their ADHD, MDD, schizophrenia, and body height polygenic risk score (PRS) and compared results with a study comparing ADHD patients and healthy controls. Our objective was to evaluate how L-DOPA-induced changes of reward-system-related FC are dependent on the individual polygenic risk score. FMRI imaging was used to evaluate resting-state functional connectivity (FC) of targeted subcortical structures in 27 ADHD patients and matched controls. In a second study, we evaluated the effect of ADHD and non-ADHD PRS in a L-DOPA-based pharmaco-fMRI-challenge in 34 healthy volunteers. The functional connectivity between the putamen and parietal lobe was decreased in ADHD patients. In healthy volunteers, the FC between putamen and parietal lobe was lower in ADHD high genetic risk participants. This direction of connectivity was reversed during L-DOPA challenge. Further findings are described for other dopaminergic subcortical structures. The FC between the putamen and the attention network showed the most consistent change in patients as well as in high-risk participants. Our results suggest that FC of the dorsal attention network is altered in adult ADHD as well as in healthy controls with higher genetic risk.

Genome-wide association of polygenic risk extremes for Alzheimer's disease in the UK Biobank

In just over a decade, advances in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have offered an approach to stratify individuals based on genetic risk for disease. Using recent Alzheimer's disease (AD) GWAS results as the base data, we determined each individual's polygenic risk score (PRS) in the UK Biobank dataset. Using individuals within the extreme risk distribution, we performed a GWAS that is agnostic of AD phenotype and is instead based on known genetic risk for disease. To interpret the functions of the new risk factors, we conducted phenotype analyses, including a phenome-wide association study. We identified 246 loci surpassing the significance threshold of which 229 were not reported in the base AD GWAS. These include loci that showed suggestive levels of association in the base GWAS and loci not previously suspected to be associated with AD. Among these, there are loci, such as IL34 and KANSL1, that have since been shown to be associated with AD in recent studies. We also show highly significant genetic correlations with multiple health-related outcomes that provide insights into prodromal symptoms and comorbidities. This is the first study to utilize PRS as a phenotype-agnostic group classification in AD genetic studies. We identify potential new loci for AD and detail phenotypic analysis of these PRS extremes.

Combined Association Between ADIPOQ, PPARG, and TNF Genes Variants and Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Chinese Han Population.

PurposeObstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common chronic polygenic disease. Multiple genetic markers associated with OSA have been identified by genome-wide association studies. Here, we aimed to construct a polygenic risk score (PRS) and examine the association with the presence of OSA in a Chinese Han Population.Patients and MethodsThis study included 1057 individuals who were genotyped for nine susceptibility loci from three genes (ADIPOQ, PPARG, and TNF), from which each individual’s PRS was calculated by summing the number of risk alleles. The associations between PRS and OSA were determined by logistic regression analyses. Model discrimination was assessed by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using bootstrapping with 1000 resamples.ResultsThe subjects included 874 with OSA and 183 controls. A higher PRS was associated with an increased apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). The PRS was an important risk factor for the development of OSA (OR = 1.237 per SD, P = 0.030). Subjects with higher PRS had a 2.88-fold (95% CI: 1.393–5.955, P = 0.004) and 5.402-fold (95% CI: 2.311–12.624, P<0.001) greater risk for having OSA and moderate-to-severe OSA, respectively, compared with those with lower genetic risk. More importantly, compared with determination of risk based solely on clinical factors, addition of the PRS increased discriminatory accuracy for both OSA (AUC from 0.75 to 0.78, P = 0.02) and moderate-to-severe OSA (AUC from 0.80 to 0.83, P = 0.02).ConclusionOur study suggests that the PRS is independently associated with AHI and OSA. Combining PRS with conventional risk factors could improve the discrimination of OSA.

The Promise of Polygenic Risk Prediction in Smoking Cessation: Evidence From Two Treatment Trials.

Tobacco use disorder is a complex behavior with a strong genetic component. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on smoking behaviors allow for the creation of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) to approximate genetic vulnerability. However, the utility of smoking-related PRSs in predicting smoking cessation in clinical trials remains unknown. We evaluated the association between polygenic risk scores and bioverified smoking abstinence in a meta-analysis of two randomized, placebo-controlled smoking cessation trials. PRSs of smoking behaviors were created using the GWAS and Sequencing Consortium of Alcohol and Nicotine use (GSCAN) consortium summary statistics. We evaluated the utility of using individual PRS of specific smoking behavior versus a combined genetic risk that combines PRS of all four smoking behaviors. Study participants came from the Transdisciplinary Tobacco Use Research Centers (TTURCs) Study (1091 smokers of European descent), and the Genetically Informed Smoking Cessation Trial (GISC) Study (501 smokers of European descent). PRS of later age of smoking initiation (OR [95% CI]: 1.20, [1.04-1.37], p = .0097) was significantly associated with bioverified smoking abstinence at end of treatment. In addition, the combined PRS of smoking behaviors also significantly predicted bioverified smoking abstinence (OR [95% CI] 0.71 [0.51-0.99], p = .045). PRS of later age at smoking initiation may be useful in predicting smoking cessation at the end of treatment. A combined PRS may be a useful predictor for smoking abstinence by capturing the genetic propensity for multiple smoking behaviors. There is a potential for polygenic risk scores to inform future clinical medicine, and a great need for evidence on whether these scores predict clinically meaningful outcomes. Our meta-analysis provides early evidence for potential utility of using polygenic risk scores to predict smoking cessation amongst smokers undergoing quit attempts, informing further work to optimize the use of polygenic risk scores in clinical care.

Abstract PO-197: Combined effect of a prostate cancer polygenic risk score and germline pathogenic variants in DNA damage repair genes on prostate cancer risk in men of African ancestry

Abstract Introduction: Prostate Cancer (PCa) risk is influenced by both rare germline pathogenic variants (GPVs) in DNA damage repair genes and common variants as measured by polygenic risk scores (PRS) however, the combined effect of GPVs and PRS on PCa risk in men of African ancestry has not been investigated. Methods: We examined the combined effect of rare GPVs and PRS on PCa risk in 1,795 PCa cases and 1,424 controls of African ancestry men from the Multiethnic Cohort, the Los Angeles Study of Aggressive Prostate Cancer, and the Uganda Prostate Cancer Study. GPVs in 19 DNA genes were defined as clinically validated missense variants and variants that alter the protein sequence. The PRS was constructed as a weighted sum of 267 established PCa risk variants. The combined effect of the PRS and GPV status on PCa risk was evaluated using logistic regression models adjusting for age, study, and the first 10 principal components of ancestry to account for population stratification. Results: We identified 91 GPVs carried by 31 controls and 68 cases. Among GPV non-carriers, compared to those with average PRS (33.3-66.7%), odds ratios for PCa ranged from 0.56 (95% CI=0.45-0.70; P=1.2E-7) in low PRS men (0-33.3%) to 3.04 (95% CI=2.54-3.63; P=5.6E-35) in high PRS men (66.7-100%). Among GPV carriers, odds ratios for PCa ranged from 2.09 (95% CI=0.85-5.12; P=0.11) in low PRS men to 5.03 (95% CI=2.37-10.66; P=2.5E-5) in high PRS men, compared to GPV non-carriers with average PRS. Next, we restricted GPVs to ATM, BRCA2, PALB2, and NBN[BD2] (n=51 variants carried by 8 controls and 44 cases), which we previously reported as being the genes most strongly associated with advanced PCa in this population and study sample. Among GPV non-carriers, odds ratios for PCa ranged from 0.56 (95% CI=0.46-0.71; P=2.7E-7) in low PRS men to 5.03 (95% CI=0.85-5.12; P=0.11) in high PRS men, while among GPV carriers, odd ratios for PCa ranged from 2.08 (95% CI=0.58-7.49; P=0.26) in low PRS men to 18.06 (95% CI=4.24-76.84; P=9.0E-5) in high PRS men, compared to average PRS GPV non-carriers. When comparing aggressive cases to controls, considering the top four genes, GPV non-carrier odds ratios for PCa ranged from 0.52 (95% CI=0.40-0.70; P=6.2E-6) in low PRS men to 3.16 (95% CI=2.56-3.91; P=1.6E-26) in high PRS men, while among GPV carriers, odd ratios for PCa ranged from 2.97 (95% CI=073-12.16; P=0.13) in low PRS men to 23.58 (95% CI=5.39-103.20; P=2.7E-5) in high PRS men, compared to average PRS GPV non-carriers. Conclusion: We found that PCa risk in African ancestry men carrying GPVs in DNA damage repair and cancer predisposition genes, particularly ATM, BRCA2, PALB2, and NBN, varied depending on an individual's PRS. This implies that to comprehensively assess genetic risk of PCa, it is important to consider both rare and common variants. These findings could have implications for risk stratification in this high-risk population and emphasize the need for larger genetic studies of PCa in African ancestry men to identify and characterize genetic risk factors in this population. Citation Format: Raymond W. Hughley, Burcu F. Darst, Marco Matejcic, Yesha Patel, Jenna Lilyquist, Steven N. Hart, Eric C. Polley, Lucy Xia, Xin Sheng, Alexander Lubmawa, Sue A. Ingles, Lynne Wilkens, Loïc L. Marchand, Stephen Watya, Fergus J. Couch, David V. Conti, Christopher A. Haiman. Combined effect of a prostate cancer polygenic risk score and germline pathogenic variants in DNA damage repair genes on prostate cancer risk in men of African ancestry [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Virtual Conference: 14th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2021 Oct 6-8. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2022;31(1 Suppl):Abstract nr PO-197.

Large uncertainty in individual polygenic risk score estimation impacts PRS-based risk stratification.

While the cohort level accuracy of polygenic risk score has been widely assessed, uncertainty in PRS—estimates of genetic value at the individual level remains underexplored. Here we show that Bayesian PRS methods can estimate the variance of an individual’s PRS and can yield well-calibrated credible intervals with posterior sampling. For real traits in the UK Biobank (N=291,273 unrelated “white British”) we observe large variance in individual PRS estimates which impacts interpretation of PRS-based stratification; averaging across 13 traits, only 0.8% (s.d. 1.6%) of individuals with PRS point estimates in the top decile have their entire 95% credible intervals fully contained in the top decile. We provide an analytical estimator for expected individual PRS variance—a function of SNP-heritability, number of causal SNPs, and sample size. Our results showcase the importance of incorporating uncertainty in individual PRS estimates into subsequent analyses.

Gut microbiota is associated with bone mineral density : an observational and genome-wide environmental interaction analysis in the UK Biobank cohort.

AimsDespite the interest in the association of gut microbiota with bone health, limited population-based studies of gut microbiota and bone mineral density (BMD) have been made. Our aim is to explore the possible association between gut microbiota and BMD.MethodsA total of 3,321 independent loci of gut microbiota were used to calculate the individual polygenic risk score (PRS) for 114 gut microbiota-related traits. The individual genotype data were obtained from UK Biobank cohort. Linear regressions were then conducted to evaluate the possible association of gut microbiota with L1-L4 BMD (n = 4,070), total BMD (n = 4,056), and femur total BMD (n = 4,054), respectively. PLINK 2.0 was used to detect the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) × gut microbiota interaction effect on the risks of L1-L4 BMD, total BMD, and femur total BMD, respectively.ResultsWe detected five, three, and seven candidate gut microbiota-related traits for L1-L4 BMD, total BMD, and femur BMD, respectively, such as genus Dialister (p = 0.004) for L1-L4 BMD, and genus Eisenbergiella (p = 0.046) for total BMD. We also detected two common gut microbiota-related traits shared by L1-L4 BMD, total BMD, and femur total BMD, including genus Escherichia Shigella and genus Lactococcus. Interaction analysis of BMD detected several genes that interacted with gut microbiota, such as phospholipase D1 (PLD1) and endomucin (EMCN) interacting with genus Dialister in total BMD, and COL12A1 and Discs Large MAGUK Scaffold Protein 2 (DLG2) interacting with genus Lactococcus in femur BMD.ConclusionOur results suggest associations between gut microbiota and BMD, which will be helpful to further explore the regulation mechanism and intervention gut microbiota of BMD.Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(11):734–741.

Association between polygenic risk score and age at onset of gastric cancer

Objective: To explore the association between polygenic risk score (PRS) and age at onset and early-onset risk of gastric cancer (GC). Methods: Gastric cancer cases from existing genome-wide association study were included, and 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with GC risk were used to derive individual PRS. Analysis of variance and Pearson correlation test was used to depict the relationship between PRS and GC onset age. Cases diagnosed before 50 years old were defined as early-onset gastric cancer. Cox proportional hazard model was used to test the association between PRS and early-onset GC risk with early-onset age as the timescale and low genetic risk (PRS ≤20%) as the reference group. Results: A total of 8 629 cases, including 6 284 males (72.82%) and 2 345 females (27.18%), were included, and the mean age was (60.61±10.80) years old. The PRS was negatively correlated with age of GC onset (r=-0.05, P<0.001). The mean age of gastric cancer cases with low, intermediate, and high genetic risk were (61.68±10.33), (60.53±10.79), (59.80±11.20), respectively. PRS was significantly associated with the risk of early-onset GC in a dose-response manner (intermediate genetic risk: HR=1.19, 95%CI: 1.03-1.39, P=0.022; high genetic risk: HR=1.44, 95%CI: 1.20-1.71, P<0.001). Conclusions: PRS may contribute to the risk of both GC and early-onset GC. PRS can be used as a measurable indicator for risk prediction for occurrence and early-onset of GC.