Individual Euro Area Countries Research Articles

Effects of QE on sovereign bond spreads through the safe asset channel

AbstractWe show that through the safe asset channel the excess liquidity created by large scale asset purchases (QE) can lead to higher sovereign bond spreads in the euro area. This unintended effect is most likely in volatile market conditions when excess liquidity spurs demand for tradeable safe assets, pushing down the interest rate of these assets, which widens risk spreads. Outcomes of a panel regression model estimated for individual euro area countries confirm that the excess liquidity created by QE had an upward effect on sovereign bond spreads. It indicates that the safe asset channel dominates the usual portfolio rebalancing channel. For monetary policy the results imply that large scale asset purchases by QE are not an appropriate instrument to address country specific shocks.

Uncertainty and demand for business loans: A study of selected countries in the euro area

This paper studies the effect of uncertainty shocks on the demand for business loans in individual euro area countries. The results of Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) model impulse response functions show that in some countries the overall demand for business loans, and particularly the demand for business loans for fixed-investment financing, respond significantly negatively to the shock.

Real interest rate convergence and monetary policy independence in CEE countries

In this paper we provide new empirical evidence relevant for discussions on monetary policy independence in the context of euro adoption in three Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries: Czechia, Hungary and Poland. Unlike many other authors, in this paper we focus on real and not nominal interest rates as real interest rates are at the hearth of modern macroeconomic and monetary policy theory. In the paper we employ several methodologies to test the convergence of real interest rates between these countries and the euro area and to determine the main drivers of real interest rates. Based on the unit root analysis we find evidence of convergence of real interest rates in these countries, thus confirming the real interest rate parity (RIRP) hypothesis. Next, using principle component analysis (PCA) we show that common factor extracted from the sample of CEE countries and individual euro area countries can explain high proportion of real interest rate developments in these countries. Finally, results of our newly proposed analytical framework for the analysis of determinants of real interest rates in small open economies, based on a Bayesian VAR model with block exogeneity, show that external shocks have non-negligible effect on real interest rate developments in selected CEE countries. Thus, our results indicate that real interest rates in CEE depend on factors that are beyond the scope of domestic monetary policy makers. In this sense we can conclude that (conventional) monetary policy independence in these countries is limited. Thus, we see the loss of monetary policy independence as overly emphasized argument in discussions on the euro adoption in these countries. However, we are aware that national central banks in CEE started to rely more on non-conventional measures recently, which gives them a higher degree of flexibility (and autonomy).

Better Off Without the Euro? A Structural VAR Assessment of European Monetary Policy

Modern OCA theory has developed different conclusions on when forming a currency union is beneficial. An important pragmatic question in this context is: Did delegating monetary policy to the ECB increase stress in the individual euro area countries? An SVAR analysis reveals that monetary stress has declined more in the euro area than in the euro areas’ doppelganger. The synthetic doppelganger is composed of other OECD countries. This result is independent of the identification strategy (sign restrictions/heteroskedasticity/Cholesky). The results can be rationalized by more formalized central banking and the euro becoming a dominant currency.

Kredyty dla gospodarstw domowych strefy euro w okresie restrykcyjnej polityki kredytowej banków i niestandardowych działań Eurosystemu

<p><strong>Uzasadnienie teoretyczne:</strong> W artykule zostal opisany problem zróżnicowania krajów strefy euro pod względem kredytowania gospodarstw domowych przez banki w warunkach restrykcyjnej polityki kredytowej i podejmowania przez Eurosystem niestandardowych działań na rzecz jej liberalizacji. Ograniczona dostępność kredytów dla sektora niefinansowego oraz jej negatywne skutki gospodarcze były pokłosiem globalnego kryzysu finansowego.</p><p><strong>Cel artykułu:</strong> Analiza kształtowania się kredytów dla gospodarstw domowych w krajach strefy euro w okresie od sierpnia 2007 r. do grudnia 2018 r. Za ważną uznano ocenę ich zmienności w czasie oraz przestrzennego zróżnicowania w dwóch podokresach – kryzysu finansowego z utrzymującą się po nim destabilizacją rynku finansowego oraz niestandardowych rozwiązań EBC, mających na celu ożywienie działalności kredytowej banków.</p><p><strong>Metody badawcze:</strong> W badaniu wykorzystano dane liczbowe odnoszące się do należności sektorów instytucji kredytowych oraz zadłużenia sektorów gospodarstw domowych z tytułu kredytów w poszczególnych krajach strefy euro. Charakterystykę lokalnych uwarunkowań w zakresie badanych kredytów przeprowadzono na podstawie wybranych statystyk opisowych, a do identyfikacji ich podobieństwa zastosowano metodę taksonomiczną.</p><strong>Główne wnioski:</strong> Wyniki badania wykazały istotną heterogeniczność krajów strefy euro pod względem cech rynku kredytów dla gospodarstw domowych w obu okresach badania. Analiza zachodzących na nim zmian pozwoliła jednak stwierdzić zgodność ich kierunku w większości państw członkowskich.

Central Bank Communication and Financial Market Comovements in the Euro Area

We examine whether unscheduled communication of members of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council affects financial market comovements. To assess comovements, we employ well-defined measures of stock market and government bond yield coexceedances, i.e., the measures of whether markets jointly decrease or increase and by how much. We use the daily data from 2008 to 2014 for the four largest euro area countries, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, in a quantile regression framework and control for persistence in coexceedances and a comprehensive set of relevant factors capturing returns and volatility in various segments of financial markets. We find that central bank communication often contributes to greater coexceedances but only when there are extreme events in the financial markets. The results also suggest that markets perceive the ECB’s communication as a euro area-wide shock, but propagation of this shock depends on the financial (in)stability of individual euro area countries.

Effects of QE on Sovereign Bond Spreads Through the Safe Asset Channel

We show that through the safe asset channel the excess liquidity created by QE can lead to higher sovereign bond spreads in the euro area. This unintended effect is most likely in stressed markets when excess liquidity spurs demand for tradeable safe assets, pushing down the interest rate of these assets, which widens risk spreads. Outcomes of a panel regression model estimated for individual euro area countries confirm that the excess liquidity created by QE had an upward effect on sovereign bond spreads. It indicates that the safe asset channel dominates the usual portfolio rebalancing channel. For monetary policy the results imply that QE is not an appropriate instrument to address country specific shocks.

Benefits of EMU Participation: Estimates Using the Synthetic Control Method

This paper investigates quantitatively the benefits from participation in the Economic and Monetary Union for individual Euro area countries. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate how real GDP per capita would have developed for the EMU member states, if those countries had not joined the EMU. The estimates show that most countries have profited from having the euro, though the crisis leads to negative effects of EMU membership. The PIGS countries, in particular, would have been better off if they had not been an EMU member during the crisis, however, Greece, Portugal and Spain experienced the largest benefits of EMU participation in the pre-crisis period.

Modeling Euro Area Bond Yields Using a Time-Varying Factor Model

In this paper, we study the dynamics and drivers of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries using a factor model with time-varying loading coefficients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing mechanism of bond yields. Our key contribution is exploring both the global and the local dimensions of bond yield determinants in individual euro area countries using a time-varying model. Using the reduced form results, we show decoupling of periphery euro area bond yields from the core countries yields following the financial crisis and the scope of their subsequent re-integration. In addition, by means of the structural analysis based on identification via sign restrictions, we present time varying impulse responses of bond yields to EA and US monetary policy shocks and to confidence shocks. JEL Classification: C11, G01, E58

The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Activity in the Euro Area

AbstractThe impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on activity has been a subject of heightened interest in recent years. Empirical literature typically focuses on the US or on individual euro area countries by using the VAR approach. However, there is limited quantitative evidence about the impact of uncertainty on euro area activity available as yet. In this paper, we derive measures of macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area from an encompassing dataset, and single out some indicators of uncertainty based on theoretical plausibility and empirical evidence. From this set of indicators, we derive an aggregate measure of macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area. Using a multivariate structural VAR approach, we then offer some quantitative evidence on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on euro area activity during the period 1999–2015. Our main findings show that heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the proposed indicators, does have a strongly adverse impact on activity in the euro area, albeit the deepness and duration of the shocks differ somewhat across uncertainty measures.

Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?

This study examines the marginal effects of traditional determinants of exports and imports with a focus on the role of price competitiveness in restoring external balances in the euro area. It is a first attempt to compare marginal effects of various harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) on both exports and imports of both goods and services across individual euro area countries. We find evidence that HCIs based on broader cost and price measures have a larger marginal effect (with some exceptions) on exports of goods. Exports of services are sensitive to HCIs in big euro area countries and Slovakia, where exports of services are also found more sensitive to competitiveness indicators based on broader price measures. Imports of goods and imports of services are quite insensitive to changes in relative prices. Finally, in some cases measures of fit indicate that a large unexplained residual part is present, implying that other non-price related factors might play an important role in driving foreign trade and policies aimed at enhancing the quality of goods traded are warranted.

Global Value Chains: A View from the Euro Area

This paper describes the main features of global value chains (GVC) between the euro area taken as a whole and other large world trade players like the USA, China and Japan, which also operate as monetary unions. In addition, the individual euro area countries' perspective is considered, with a specific focus on intra‐area linkages. The analysis is primarily based on the concept of foreign value added in exports, which is suitable to assess the pervasiveness of GVC. The paper uses the World Input–Output Database and covers the period 2000–2011, giving also some information on the sectoral dimension of production linkages. The paper concludes that GVC are important for the euro area as whole and there has been a rebound since the trade collapse in 2009. Moreover, there is a strong relevance of regional production linkages in Europe, with a large role for Germany and Central and Eastern European countries.

Global Value Chains: A View from the Euro Area

This paper describes the main features of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in the euro area taken as a whole and compares with other large trade players like the US, China and Japan. In addition, the perspective of individual euro area countries is considered, with a focus on intra euro area linkages. The analysis relies primarily on the concept of foreign value added in exports, as a way to assess the pervasiveness of GVCs, it covers the period 2000-2011 and bases on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The paper finds that GVCs are important for the euro area as whole and they have rebounded after the great trade collapse. Moreover, there is a strong relevance of regional production linkages in Europe, with Germany playing a key role.

Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?

In this paper we construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the euro area, for the period 2003 to 2011, using a wide range of prices, quantities, spreads and survey data, grounded in the theoretical literature. One FCI includes monetary policy variables, whilst two versions without monetary policy are also constructed, enabling us to study the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions. The FCIs constructed fit in well with a narrative of financial conditions since the creation of the monetary union. FCIs for individual euro area countries are also provided, with a view to comparing financial conditions in core and periphery countries. There is evidence of significant divergence both before and during the crisis, which becomes less pronounced when monetary policy variables are included in the FCI. However, the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions appears not to be entirely symmetric across the euro area.

Measuring the Effectiveness of Cost and Price Competitiveness in External Rebalancing of Euro Area Countries: What Do Alternative HCIs Tell Us?

This study examines the marginal effects of traditional determinants of exports and imports with a focus on the role of price competitiveness in restoring external balances. It is a first attempt to compare marginal effects of various harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) on both exports and imports of both goods and services across individual euro area countries. We find evidence that HCIs based on broader cost and price measures have a larger marginal effect (with some exceptions) on exports of goods. Exports of services are sensitive to HCIs in big euro area countries and Slovakia, where exports of services are also found more sensitive to competitiveness indicators based on broader price measures. Imports of goods and imports of services are quite insensitive to changes in relative prices. Finally, in some cases measures of fit indicate that a large unexplained residual part is present, implying that other non-price related factors might play an important role in driving foreign trade.

How Have Global Shocks Impacted the Real Effective Exchange Rates of Individual Euro Area Countries Since the Euro's Creation?

This paper uncovers the response pattern to global shocks of euro area countries' real effective exchange rates before and after the start of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), a largely open ended question when the euro was created. We apply to that end a newly developed methodology based on high dimensional VAR theory. This approach features a dominant unit to a large set of over 60 countries' real effective exchange rates and is based on the comparison of two estimated systems: one before and one after EMU. We find strong evidence that the pattern of responses depends crucially on the nature of global shocks. In particular, post-EMU responses to global US dollar shocks have become similar to Germany's response before EMU, i.e. to that of the economy that used to issue Europe's most credible legacy currency. By contrast, post-EMU responses of euro area countries to global risk aversion shocks have become similar to those of Italy, Portugal or Spain before EMU, i.e. of economies of the euro area's periphery. Our findings also suggest that the divergence in external competitiveness among euro area countries over the last decade, which is at the core of today's debate on the future of the euro area, is more likely due to country-specific shocks than to global shocks.

Building a Financial Conditions Index for the Euro Area and Selected Euro Area Countries: What Does It Tell Us about the Crisis?

In this paper we construct Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) for the euro area, for the period 2003 to 2011, using a wide range of prices, quantities, spreads and survey data, grounded in the theoretical literature. One FCI includes monetary policy variables, while two versions without monetary policy are also constructed, enabling us to study the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions. The FCIs constructed fit in well with a narrative of financial conditions since the creation of the monetary union. FCIs for individual euro area countries are also provided, with a view to comparing financial conditions in core and periphery countries. There is evidence of significant divergence both before and during the crisis, which becomes less pronounced when monetary policy variables are included in the FCI. However, the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions appears not to be entirely symmetric across the euro area.

Macro-Networks: An Application to the Euro Area Financial Accounts

We use financial accounts data at sector level to construct financial networks for individual euro area countries. We then connect the country-level networks to one large “Macro Network”, using information on cross-border linkages between the national banking sectors. We then evaluate the features of the resulting framework using various network statistics. Shock simulations reveal that the structural features of the bilateral linkages are a key determinant of the losses that may be generated when the shocks propagate in the system. The network structures evolve over time, showing increasing interconnectedness in different instrument categories before the financial crisis hit in 2007, and a sharp retrenchment from bilateral exposures after the crisis started. This reflects the surge in counterparty risk and the de-leveraging processes which were triggered by the initial asset price losses and were further amplified by the economic downturn. As a consequence, there was a marked deterioration in financial integration both within economies and across countries in the euro area. Nonetheless, our analysis suggests that the risk of contagion is not reduced, while a more diversified portfolio of cross-border exposures might mitigate shocks effects.

How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro’s creation?

This paper uncovers the response pattern to global shocks of euro area countries’ real effective exchange rates before and after the start of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), a largely open ended question when the euro was created. We apply to that end a newly developed methodology based on high dimensional VAR theory. This approach features a dominant unit to a large set of over 60 countries’ real effective exchange rates and is based on the comparison of two estimated systems: one before and one after EMU. We find strong evidence that the pattern of responses depends crucially on the nature of global shocks. In particular, post-EMU responses to global US dollar shocks have become similar to Germany’s response before EMU, i.e., to that of the economy that used to issue Europe’s most credible legacy currency. By contrast, post-EMU responses of euro area countries to global risk aversion shocks have become similar to those of Italy, Portugal or Spain before EMU, i.e., of economies of the euro area’s periphery. Our findings also suggest that the divergence in external competitiveness among euro area countries over the last decade, which is at the core of today’s debate on the future of the euro area, is more likely due to country-specific shocks than to global shocks.

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK POLICY-MAKING AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

We estimated Taylor rule models for the euro area using Consensus Economics forecasts of inflation and output growth for the period 1998.6–2010.8. We first examined whether the recent financial crisis has affected European Central Bank (ECB) policies. Our results indicate that the ECB puts stronger emphasis on maintaining price stability than the earlier point estimates suggested. Next, we analysed whether economic developments in individual euro area countries affect ECB decisions. Despite the diverging economic developments in the countries in the euro area, notably during the recent financial crisis, we did not find support for the view that policy decisions have been influenced by regional developments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.