Indirect Standardization Research Articles

Socioeconomic-related inequities in child immunization: horizontal and vertical dimensions for policy insights

BackgroundThe incomplete immunization has potentially exposed vulnerable children, especially from the socioeconomically disadvantage group, to vaccine preventable diseases. The schemes would maximize social benefit only when the immunization is effectively distributed on an equitable principle.MethodThe empirical study is based on unit level data from India’s National Sample Survey: “Social Consumption: Health Survey- NSS 75th Round (2017-18) database. The nationwide survey is designed on the stratified multi-stage sampling method with an objective to make the sample representative. The egalitarian equity principle requires that distribution of vaccine should be based on health needs of children, irrespective of their socioeconomic and regional factors and the principle is broadly based on two aspects - horizontal and vertical equity. The horizontal inequity (HI) is a direct form of injustice, when children with equal needs of routine immunisation are treated differentially due to their socioeconomic status, while vertical inequity (VI) is indirect form of injustice when children with differential health needs and risks exposure do not receive appropriately unequal but equitable immunisation. Using Indirect Standardisation Method and Erreygers’ Corrected Concentration Index, we measure the degree of horizontal and vertical inequities, and then linearly decompose them to identify the major factors contributing towards the respective indices.ConclusionOur findings show that incomplete immunization is significantly concentrated among children belonging to poorer households. After controlling for the confounding effects of need factors, the inequity is still significantly pro-poor (i.e., horizontal inequity). The decomposition reveals that lower education, lower consumption and rural habitation are the major factors driving the corresponding inequity. Further, the differential effect of the needs between all and the target groups (at least based on education), is observed, however, is not statistically significant enough to realize inequity (i.e., no vertical inequity). Overall, the inequity is being induced via non-need factors. We further find that community health services (like anganwadi) have contributed towards reducing the inequity in child immunization significantly. The paper highlights the policy recommendation that the child immunisation program should target factors driving HI and need to align their distribution in terms of risks exposures.

Temporal trends, regional and socio-economic disparities of colorectal cancer burden in Cyprus

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the main causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide and it is the third most common cancer in Cyprus. Previous studies have documented variations in CRC burden over time, across regions and area-based socio-economic deprivation. The aim of this study was to analyse the burden of CRC over time, across regions and area-based socio-economic deprivation in Cyprus for the time period 2000 to 2015. Methods A small area ecological study was performed, with census tracts as units of spatial analysis. The incidence and death date, sex and age of CRC were obtained from the population-based cancer registry of Cyprus. Indirect standardization was used to calculate the sex and age Standardize Incidence Ratios (SIRs) and Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) of CRC while the smoothed estimates of SIRs and SMRs were derived from the Spatiotemporal Bayesian Poisson log-linear model. To investigate temporal trends in the association between area-based socioeconomic deprivation and CRC burden, we have used the national socio-economic index. Results The burden of CRC was rising over time. The CRC cumulative incidence increase from 243.7 in the time period 2000-2007 to 347.3 per 100,000 persons in the time period 2008-2015.There was also a more pronounced geographical variation in SIR and SMR in the time period 2008-2015. Four areas out of 369 had smoothed SIR>1.15 while twenty-six areas had smoothed SMR>1.15, with most of those areas located at the east coast of the island and around the capital city. There was a temporal trend in the socio-economic inequalities of CRC burden. The areas in the third and fourth quartile of the socio-economic index had 23% and 45% lower rates of CRC incidence, and 33% and 47% lower rates of CRC mortality in the period 2008-2015. Conclusions These findings could shape national prevention policies, such as the national screening program of CRC starting in 2025 and protection strategies for CRC mortality. Key messages • Colorectal cancer screening should be geographically targeted for efficient resource allocation. • Public health interventions to improve colorectal-specific mortality risk should be geographically targeted.

Territorial health inequalities in breast cancer mortality across France from 1968 to 2017

Abstract Background Territorial health inequalities are of growing concern in countries with universal health systems. From 2003, three successive national cancer plans were launched in France, aiming to improve prevention and treatment. Regions in France are responsible for strategic and financial management of healthcare within their boundaries, which, until 2016, included up to 8 departments. In this study, we analyze the evolution of between and within-region territorial inequalities in breast cancer mortality over 50 years. Methods We used direct and indirect standardization to analyze trends in breast cancer mortality for women aged 25 to 74 years between 1968 and 2017 in each department of metropolitan France. We analyzed the evolution of relative inequalities over time using standard errors of age-adjusted rates. We used multilevel Poisson regression to estimate how much the regional level contributed to territorial variation. Results Over the period 1968 to 1992, breast cancer standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) increased (+16%) while relative territorial inequalities decreased (-21%). After 1997, SMRs decreased (-23%) but territorial inequalities remained unchanged. In 18 out of 22 regions, inequalities were lower at the end than at the start of the study period. Period proved to be the most important determinant of variation in mortality. However, multilevel models also suggested that the regional level explained most of the remaining variation in each period (from 50% to over 80%). Conclusions Over the study period in most French regions, breast cancer mortality has decreased, and so have relative inequalities. Nevertheless, there is evidence that regions have performed differently. The proportion of variation explained by the regional level suggests the continued relevance of the health system on breast cancer mortality. Key messages • Territorial inequality in breast cancer mortality has decreased in France over the 1968-2017 period. • In most regions, disparities between departments have decreased.

Suicide among post-Arabellion refugees in Germany.

Although immigrants are considered to be vulnerable to mental illness, there is limited knowledge regarding their suicide mortality. To investigate standardised mortality ratios (SMR) for suicide among the largest immigrant populations in Germany before and after the refugee movement of 2015. Data on immigrants and the general population in Germany between 2000 and 2020 were provided by the scientific section of the Federal Statistical Office. SMR with 95% confidence intervals were calculated by indirect standardisation for gender, age and calendar year for the pre-2015 and post-2015 time interval, first for all the immigrant populations studied and second for the Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi populations separately. Immigrants from the countries studied showed a lower suicide risk compared with the German reference population (SMR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.35-0.41). No differences in SMR were found between pre- and post-2015 time intervals, in either the aggregate data for all populations or the data for Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi populations. Post-2015, Afghan immigrants (SMR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.54-0.83) showed a higher SMR than Syrians (SMR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.25-0.36) or Iraqis (SMR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.26-0.48). Despite the many and varied stresses associated with flight, comparison of the pre- and post-2015 time intervals showed that the suicide risk of the populations studied did not change and was considerably lower than that of the German reference population. We attribute this to lower suicide rates in the countries of origin but also to flight-related selection processes that favour more resilient individuals.

Comparison of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss between male police officers and male non-police officers: a nationwide cohort study using propensity score matching in South Korea

BackgroundPolice officers are at a high risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) owing to the nature of their work. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the risk of NIHL in police officers and controls.MethodsThis study used the National Health Insurance claims data of workers aged 25–65 years obtained from 2005 to 2015. The case group comprised police officers, while the control group comprised general workers and public officers. The study followed a three-phase cohort design. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was calculated using an indirect standardization method based on age. Propensity score matching was performed using the greedy matching method, with a police officer-to-control group ratio of 1:3. Cox regression analysis was performed for each matched control group. Statistical significance was determined by a lower limit of greater than 1, based on the 95% confidence interval (CI).ResultsThe SIR values for police officers were 1.62 (95% CI: 1.44–1.82) compared with general workers and 1.78 (95% CI: 1.66–1.73) compared with public officers. Police officers exhibited an increased risk of NIHL compared with general workers (hazard ratio (HR): 1.71, 95% CI: 1.49–1.98) and public officers (HR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.88–2.56).ConclusionsIt is necessary to prevent NIHL by reducing occupational noise exposure through measures such as wearing earplugs, improving shooting training methods, and improving the shift work system.

Population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates and ratios among adults with intellectual disabilities in Scotland: a retrospective cohort study with record linkage

ObjectiveTo provide contemporary data on cancer mortality rates within the context of incidence in the population with intellectual disabilities.MethodsScotland’s 2011 Census was used to identify adults with intellectual disabilities and...

Do Common Risk Adjustment Methods Do Their Job Well if Center Effects are Correlated With the Center-Specific Mean Values of Patient Characteristics?

Direct and indirect standardization are well-established approaches to performing risk adjustment when comparing outcomes between healthcare providers. However, it is an open question whether they work well when there is an association between the center effects and the distributions of the patient characteristics in these centers. We try to shed further light on the impact of such an association. We construct an artificial case study with a single covariate, in which centers can be classified as performing above, on, or below average, and the center effects correlate with center-specific mean values of a patient characteristic, as a consequence of differential quality improvement. Based on this case study, direct standardization and indirect standardization-based on marginal as well as conditional models-are compared with respect to systematic differences between their results. Systematic differences between the methods were observed. All methods produced results that partially reflect differences in mean age across the centers. This may mask the classification as above, on, or below average. The differences could be explained by an inspection of the parameter estimates in the models fitted. In case of correlations of center effects with center-specific mean values of a covariate, different risk adjustment methods can produce systematically differing results. This suggests the routine use of sensitivity analyses. Center effects in a conditional model need not reflect the position of a center above or below average, questioning its use in defining the truth. Further empirical investigations are necessary to judge the practical relevance of these findings.

Prognostic score-based methods for estimating center effects based on survival probability: Application to post-kidney transplant survival.

In evaluating the performance of different facilities or centers on survival outcomes, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR), which compares the observed to expected mortality has been widely used, particularly in the evaluation of kidney transplant centers. Despite its utility, the SMR may exaggerate center effects in settings where survival probability is relatively high. An example is one-year graft survival among U.S. kidney transplant recipients. We propose a novel approach to estimate center effects in terms of differences in survival probability (ie, each center versus a reference population). An essential component of the method is a prognostic score weighting technique, which permits accurately evaluating centers without necessarily specifying a correct survival model. Advantages of our approach over existing facility-profiling methods include a metric based on survival probability (greater clinical relevance than ratios of counts/rates); direct standardization (valid to compare between centers, unlike indirect standardization based methods, such as the SMR); and less reliance on correct model specification (since the assumed model is used to generate risk classes as opposed to fitted-value based 'expected' counts). We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed weighted estimator and evaluate its finite-sample performance under a diverse set of simulation settings. The method is then applied to evaluate U.S. kidney transplant centers with respect to graft survival probability.

Process and Outcome Measures for Infants Born Moderate and Late Preterm in Tertiary Canadian Neonatal Intensive Care Units

ObjectiveTo describe the prevalence of and between-center variations in care practices and clinical outcomes of moderate and late preterm infants (MLPI) admitted to tertiary Canadian neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Study designA retrospective cohort study including infants born at 320/7 through 366/7 weeks’ gestation and admitted to 25 NICUs participating in the Canadian Neonatal Network between 2015 and 2020. Patient characteristics, process measures represented by care practices, and outcome measures represented by clinical in-hospital and discharge outcomes were reported by gestational age weeks. NICUs were compared using indirect standardization after adjustment for patient characteristics. ResultsAmong 25,669 infants (17% of MLPI born in Canada during the study period) included, 45% received deferred cord clamping, 7% had admission hypothermia, 47% received non-invasive respiratory support, 11% received mechanical ventilation, 8% received surfactant, 40% received antibiotics in the first 3 days, 4% did not receive feeding in the first 2 days, and 77% had vascular access. Mortality, early onset sepsis, late onset sepsis, or necrotizing enterocolitis occurred in <1% of the study cohort. Median (IQR) length of stay was 14 (9-21) days among infants discharged home from the admission hospital, and 5 (3-9) days among infants transferred to community hospitals. Among infants discharged home, 33% were discharged on exclusive breastmilk and 75% on any breastmilk. There were significant variations between NICUs in all process and outcome measures. ConclusionsCare practices and outcomes of MLPI varied significantly between Canadian NICUs. Standardization of process and outcome quality measures for this population will enable benchmarking and research, facilitating systemwide improvements.

Unravelling the Evolution of Neurodegenerative Disease Mortality: Insights from 50 Years of Belgian Data

Neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) are an increasingly pressing public health concern. This study investigates spatiotemporal variations in NDD mortality, focusing on dementias and Parkinson’s Disease (PD) in Belgium from 1970 to 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates for the population aged 45 or older were calculated using indirect standardization methods, referencing 1970 rates and averaging deaths over 3 year-periods for stability. Spatial representations were created using mapping techniques. Moran’s I tests assessed spatial autocorrelation. The findings reveal shifts in dementia classifications, with Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) superseding dementia from 1980 to 1993, and later, dementia-related deaths surpassing AD deaths. Spatially, dementia ICD-codes clustered in Flanders while AD codes clustered in the Walloon region. PD-related deaths doubled from 1997 to 2020, with a shift from higher female proportions before 2004 to increased male rates from 2004 to 2020. Spatial analysis shows a notable rise in PD mortality rates in the Walloon region by 2000, yet a contrasting pattern was found in 2019. More research is needed to explore other explanatory factors for spatial variations beyond registration practices.

Multilevel Quality Indicators

Background: Quality indicators are frequently used to assess the performance of health care providers, in particular hospitals. Established approaches to the design of such indicators are subject to distortions due to indirect standardization and high variance of estimators. Indicators for geographical regions are rarely considered. Objectives: To develop and evaluate a methodology of multilevel quality indicators (MQIs) for both health care providers and geographical regions. Research Design: We formally derived MQIs from a statistical multilevel model, which may include characteristics of patients, providers, and regions. We used Monte Carlo simulation to assess the performance of MQIs relative to established approaches based on the standardized mortality/morbidity ratio (SMR) and the risk-standardized mortality rate (RSMR). Measures: Rank correlation between true provider/region effects and quality indicator estimates; shares of the 10% best and 10% worst providers identified by the quality indicators. Results: The proposed MQIs are: (1) standardized hospital outcome rate (SHOR); (2) regional SHOR; and (3) regional standardized patient outcome rate. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that the SHOR provides substantially better estimates of provider performance than the SMR and risk-standardized mortality rate in almost all scenarios. The regional standardized patient outcome rate was slightly more stable than the regional SMR. We also found that modeling of regional characteristics generally improves the adequacy of provider-level estimates. Conclusions: MQIs methodology facilitates adequate and efficient estimation of quality indicators for both health care providers and geographical regions.

Suicide Mortality Among Formerly Incarcerated People Compared With the General Population in North Carolina, 2000-2020.

We aimed to compare rates and characteristics of suicide mortality in formerly incarcerated people with those of the general population in North Carolina. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 266,400 people released from North Carolina state prisons between January 1, 2000, and March 1, 2020. Using direct and indirect standardization by age, sex, and calendar year, we calculated standardized suicide mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios comparing formerly incarcerated people with the North Carolina general population. We evaluated effect modification by race/ethnicity, sex, age, and firearm involvement. Formerly incarcerated people had approximately twice the overall suicide mortality of the general population for 3 years after release, with the highest rate of suicide mortality being observed in the 2-week period after release. In contrast to patterns in the general population, formerly incarcerated people had higher rates of non-firearm-involved suicide mortality than firearm-involved suicide mortality. Formerly incarcerated female, White and Hispanic/Latino, and emerging adult people had a greater elevation of suicide mortality than their general-population peers compared with other groups. These findings suggest a need for long-term support for formerly incarcerated people as they return to community living and a need to identify opportunities for interventions that reduce the harms of incarceration for especially vulnerable groups. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Models and methods for analysing clustered recurrent hospitalisations in the presence of COVID-19 effects.

Recurrent events such as hospitalisations are outcomes that can be used to monitor dialysis facilities' quality of care. However, current methods are not adequate to analyse data from many facilities with multiple hospitalisations, especially when adjustments are needed for multiple time scales. It is also controversial whether direct or indirect standardisation should be used in comparing facilities. This study is motivated by the need of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to evaluate US dialysis facilities using Medicare claims, which involve almost 8,000 facilities and over 500,000 dialysis patients. This scope is challenging for current statistical software's computational power. We propose a method that has a flexible baseline rate function and is computationally efficient. Additionally, the proposed method shares advantages of both indirect and direct standardisation. The method is evaluated under a range of simulation settings and demonstrates substantially improved computational efficiency over the existing R package survival. Finally, we illustrate the method with an important application to monitoring dialysis facilities in the U.S., while making time-dependent adjustments for the effects of COVID-19.

Age at diagnosis for lung, colon, breast and prostate cancers: An international comparative study.

Differences in the average age at cancer diagnosis are observed across countries. We therefore aimed to assess international variation in the median age at diagnosis of common cancers worldwide, after adjusting for differences in population age structure. We used IARC's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Volume XI database, comprising cancer diagnoses between 2008 and 2012 from population-based cancer registries in 65 countries. We calculated crude median ages at diagnosis for lung, colon, breast and prostate cancers in each country, then adjusted for population age differences using indirect standardization. We showed that median ages at diagnosis changed by up to 10 years after standardization, typically increasing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and decreasing in high-income countries (HICs), given relatively younger and older populations, respectively. After standardization, the range of ages at diagnosis was 12 years for lung cancer (median age 61-Bulgaria vs 73-Bahrain), 12 years for colon cancer (60-the Islamic Republic of Iran vs 72-Peru), 10 years for female breast cancer (49-Algeria, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Republic of Korea vs 59-USA and others) and 10 years for prostate cancer (65-USA, Lithuania vs 75-Philippines). Compared to HICs, populations in LMICs were diagnosed with colon cancer at younger ages but with prostate cancer at older ages (both pLMICS-vs-HICs < 0.001). In countries with higher smoking prevalence, lung cancers were diagnosed at younger ages in both women and men (both pcorr < 0.001). Female breast cancer tended to be diagnosed at younger ages in East Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Our findings suggest that the differences in median ages at cancer diagnosis worldwide likely reflect population-level variation in risk factors and cancer control measures, including screening.

The Lives Lost to Inequities: Avertable Deaths From Neurologic Diseases in the Past Decade.

Mortality rates for neurologic diseases are increasing in the United States, with large disparities across geographical areas and populations. Racial and ethnic populations, notably the non-Hispanic (NH) Black population, experience higher mortality rates for many causes of death, but the magnitude of the disparities for neurologic diseases is unclear. The objectives of this study were to calculate mortality rates for neurologic diseases by race and ethnicity and-to place this disparity in perspective-to estimate how many US deaths would have been averted in the past decade if the NH Black population experienced the same mortality rates as other groups. Mortality rates for deaths attributed to neurologic diseases, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases, were calculated for 2010 to 2019 using death and population data obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Census Bureau. Avertable deaths were calculated by indirect standardization: For each calendar year of the decade, age-specific death rates of NH White persons in 10 age groups were multiplied by the NH Black population in each age group. A secondary analysis used Hispanic and NH Asian populations as the reference groups. In 2013, overall age-adjusted mortality rates for neurologic diseases began increasing, with the NH Black population experiencing higher rates than NH White, NH American Indian and Alaska Native, Hispanic, and NH Asian populations (in decreasing order). Other populations with higher mortality rates for neurologic diseases included older adults, the male population, and adults older than 25 years without a high school diploma. The gap in mortality rates for neurologic diseases between the NH Black and NH White populations widened from 4.2 individuals per 100,000 in 2011 to 7.0 per 100,000 in 2019. Over 2010 to 2019, had the NH Black population experienced the neurologic mortality rates of NH White, Hispanic, or NH Asian populations, 29,986, 88,407, or 117,519 deaths, respectively, would have been averted. Death rates for neurologic diseases are increasing. Disproportionately higher neurologic mortality rates in the NH Black population are responsible for a large number of excess deaths, making research and policy efforts to address the systemic causes increasingly urgent.

A five year descriptive analysis of potentially preventable hospitalisations for Ear, Nose, and Throat conditions in regional Victoria, Australia, from 2015 to 2020

BackgroundPotentially preventable hospitalisations of ear, nose, and throat conditions in the Murray Primary Health Network region have been found to be higher than the state average of Victoria, Australia. This study aimed to examine the association between selected patient-level characteristics and the likelihood of residing in a Murray PHN postcode with higher than expected numbers of potentially preventable ENT hospitalisations.MethodsUnit record hospital separation data were obtained from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset. Postcodes were classified as having higher than expected numbers of potentially preventable hospitalisations across three subgroups of ENT using indirect standardisation techniques. Differences between patients from ‘higher than expected’ postcodes and ‘other’ postcodes with respect to the distribution of demographic and other patient characteristics were determined using chi-squared tests for each ENT subgroup. The results were confirmed by logistic regression analyses using resident of a postcode with higher than expected hospitalisations as the outcome variable.ResultsOf the 169 postcodes located in the catchment area, 15 were identified as having higher than expected numbers of upper respiratory tract infection hospitalisations, 14 were identified for acute tonsillitis, and 12 were identified for otitis media. Patients from postcodes with ‘higher than expected’ hospitalisations for these conditions were more likely than others to be aged between 0 and 9 years, Indigenous, or from a culturally and linguistically diverse background.ConclusionFurther investigation of the identified postcodes is warranted to determine access to and utilisation of primary healthcare services in the management of PPH ENT conditions in the region.

The risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma and the mortality rate in primary Sjögren's syndrome: a single-centre, retrospective cohort study.

Primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) is a systemic autoimmune disease that is manifested by the sensation of dry eyes and dry mouth. The higher incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) among pSS has already been extensively researched. However, there are uncertanties whether the mortality risk in pSS patients and in pSS patients with NHL is increased. The purpose of this study was to describe the prevalence of NHL among pSS patients and to calculate their mortality risk. We retrospectively analysed data on 1367 patients treated in our rheumatology department under the ICD-10 code M35.0. The study finally recruited 155 patients who met the 2016 ACR/EULAR criteria for the diagnosis of pSS. Descriptive statistics was used in data analysis. We applied the indirect standardization by age to compare the incidence rate of NHL in our cohort to general population. Additionally, we compared the mortality in our study to the general population by calculating the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). The overall incidence rate of NHL was 440 per 100,000 patient-years. The SIR compared to the general population was 30.13 (95% CI 12.87-54.63). The overall mortality rate of pSS patients in our cohort was nearly identical to that of the general population (SMR = 0.98 [95% CI (0.47-1.69)]). This study confirms that there are significant differences in lymphoma prevalence, histology, and prognosis across the studied populations. Furthermore, this study found that patients with pSS have similar mortality risk as the general population, and no patient in our cohort died from NHL.

Convergent Validity of 2 Widely Used Methodologies for Calculating the Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Flanders, Belgium.

To assess their construct validity, we compared results from 2 models used for estimating hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) in Belgium. The method of the Flemish Hospital Network (FHN) is based on a logistic regression for each of the 64 All Patient Refined Diagnosis-Related Groups that explain 80% of mortality and uses the Elixhauser score to correct for comorbidities. (H)SMRs published on the 3M-Benchmark-Portal are calculated by a simpler indirect standardization for All Patient Refined Diagnosis-Related Groups and risk of mortality (ROM) at discharge. We used administrative data from all eligible hospital admissions in 22 Flemish hospitals between 2016 and 2019 (FHN, n = 682,935; 3M, n = 2,122,305). We evaluated model discrimination and accuracy and assessed agreement in estimated HSMRs between methods. The Spearman correlation between HSMRs generated by the FHN model and the standard 3M model was 0.79. Although 2 of 22 hospitals showed opposite classification results, that is, an HSMR significantly <1 according to the FHN method but significantly >1 according to the 3M model, classification agreement between methods was significant (agreement for 59.1% of hospitals, κ = 0.45). The 3M model (c statistic = 0.96, adjusted Brier score = 26%) outperformed the FHN model (0.87, 17%). However, using ROM at admission instead of at discharge in the 3M model significantly reduced model performance (c statistic = 0.94, adjusted Brier score = 21%), but yielded similar HSMR estimates and eliminated part of the discrepancy with FHN results. Results of both models agreed relatively well, supporting convergent validity. Whereas the FHN method only adjusts for disease severity at admission, the ROM indicator of the 3M model includes diagnoses not present on admission. Although diagnosis codes generated by complications during hospitalization have the tendency to increase the predictive performance of a model, these should not be included in risk adjustment procedures.

The Italian data on SARS-CoV-2 infection in transplanted patients support an organ specific immune response in liver recipients.

The study of immune response to SARSCoV-2 infection in different solid organ transplant settings represents an opportunity for clarifying the interplay between SARS-CoV-2 and the immune system. In our nationwide registry study from Italy, we specifically evaluated, during the first wave pandemic, i.e., in non-vaccinated patients, COVID-19 prevalence of infection, mortality, and lethality in liver transplant recipients (LTRs), using non-liver solid transplant recipients (NL-SOTRs) and the Italian general population (GP) as comparators. Case collection started from February 21 to June 22, 2020, using the data from the National Institute of Health and National Transplant Center, whereas the data analysis was performed on September 30, 2020.To compare the sex- and age-adjusted distribution of infection, mortality, and lethality in LTRs, NL-SOTRs, and Italian GP we applied an indirect standardization method to determine the standardized rate. Among the 43,983 Italian SOTRs with a functioning graft, LTRs accounted for 14,168 patients, of whom 89 were SARS-CoV-2 infected. In the 29,815 NL-SOTRs, 361 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were observed. The geographical distribution of the disease was highly variable across the different Italian regions. The standardized rate of infection, mortality, and lethality rates in LTRs resulted lower compared to NL-SOTRs [1.02 (95%CI 0.81-1.23) vs. 2.01 (95%CI 1.8-2.2); 1.0 (95%CI 0.5-1.5) vs. 4.5 (95%CI 3.6-5.3); 1.6 (95%CI 0.7-2.4) vs. 2.8 (95%CI 2.2-3.3), respectively] and comparable to the Italian GP. According to the most recent studies on SOTRs and SARS-CoV-2 infection, our data strongly suggest that, in contrast to what was observed in NL-SOTRs receiving a similar immunosuppressive therapy, LTRs have the same risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, mortality, and lethality observed in the general population. These results suggest an immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in LTRS that is different from NL-SOTRs, probably related to the ability of the grafted liver to induce immunotolerance.

Evaluation of the Global Health Security Index as a predictor of COVID-19 excess mortality standardised for under-reporting and age structure

BackgroundPrevious studies have observed that countries with the strongest levels of pandemic preparedness capacities experience the greatest levels of COVID-19 burden. However, these analyses have been limited by cross-country differentials...