Indirect Land Use Change Effects Research Articles

Climate regulation, energy provisioning and water purification: Quantifying ecosystem service delivery of bioenergy willow grown on riparian buffer zones using life cycle assessment.

Whilst life cycle assessment (LCA) boundaries are expanded to account for negative indirect consequences of bioenergy such as indirect land use change (ILUC), ecosystem services such as water purification sometimes delivered by perennial bioenergy crops are typically neglected in LCA studies. Consequential LCA was applied to evaluate the significance of nutrient interception and retention on the environmental balance of unfertilised energy willow planted on 50-m riparian buffer strips and drainage filtration zones in the Skåne region of Sweden. Excluding possible ILUC effects and considering oil heat substitution, strategically planted filter willow can achieve net global warming potential (GWP) and eutrophication potential (EP) savings of up to 11.9Mg CO2e and 47kg PO4e ha-1 year-1, respectively, compared with a GWP saving of 14.8Mg CO2e ha-1 year-1 and an EP increase of 7kg PO4e ha-1 year-1 for fertilised willow. Planting willow on appropriate buffer and filter zones throughout Skåne could avoid 626Mgyear-1 PO4e nutrient loading to waters.

Bioethanol potential from miscanthus with low ILUC risk in the province of Lublin, Poland

AbstractIncreasing production of biofuels has led to concerns about indirect land‐use change (ILUC). So far, significant efforts have been made to assess potential ILUC effects. But limited attention has been paid to strategies for reducing the extent of ILUC and controlling the type of LUC. This case study assesses five key ILUC mitigation measures to quantify the low‐ILUC‐risk production potential of miscanthus‐based bioethanol in Lublin province (Poland) in 2020. In 2020, a total area of 196 to 818 thousand hectare of agricultural land could be made available for biomass production by realizing above‐baseline yield developments (95–413 thousand ha), increased food chain efficiencies (9–30 thousand ha) and biofuel feedstock production on underutilized lands (92–375 thousand ha). However, a maximum 203–269 thousand hectare is considered legally available (not protected) and biophysically suitable for miscanthus production. The resulting low‐ILUC‐risk bioethanol production potential ranges from 12 to 35 PJ per year. The potential from this region alone is higher than the national Polish target for second‐generation bioethanol consumption of 9 PJ in 2020. Although the sustainable implementation potential may be lower, the province of Lublin could play a key role in achieving this target. This study shows that the mitigation or prevention of ILUC from bioenergy is only possible when an integrated perspective is adopted on the agricultural and bioenergy sectors. Governance and policies on planning and implementing ILUC mitigation are considered vital for realizing a significant bioenergy potential with low ILUC risk. One important aspect in this regard is monitoring the risk of ILUC and the implementation of ILUC mitigation measures. Key parameters for monitoring are land use, land cover and crop yields.

Ethanol expansion and indirect land use change in Brazil

In this paper we analyze the indirect land use change (ILUC) effects of ethanol production expansion in Brazil through the use of an inter-regional, bottom-up, dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated with the 2005 Brazilian I-O table. A new methodology to deal with ILUC effects is developed, using a transition matrix of land uses calibrated with Agricultural Censuses data. Agriculture and land use are modeled separately in each of 15 Brazilian regions with different agricultural mix. This regional detail captures a good deal of the differences in soil, climate and history that cause particular land to be used for particular purposes.Brazilian land area data distinguish three broad types of agricultural land use, Crop, Pasture, and Plantation Forestry. Between one year and the next the model allows land to move between those categories, or for unused land to convert to one of these three, driven initially by the transition matrix, changing land supply for agriculture between years. The transition matrix shows Markov probabilities that a particular hectare of land used in one year for some use would be in another use next period. These probabilities are modified endogenously in the model according to the average unit rentals of each land type in each region.We ask whether biofuel expansion is consistent with new laws, limiting forest clearing in Brazil. A simulation with ethanol expansion scenario is performed for year 2020, in which land supply is allowed to increase only in states located on the agricultural frontier. Results suggest that each new hectare of sugar cane requires only 0.14ha of new land, with another 0.47ha converted from pasture use. Hence policies limiting deforestation are unlikely to prevent greater ethanol production. Finally, regional differences in sugarcane productivity are found to be important elements in ILUC effects of sugar cane expansion.

A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA

The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of −0.13ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

Biofuels That Cause Land-Use Change May Have Much Larger Non-GHG Air Quality Emissions Than Fossil Fuels

Although biofuels present an opportunity for renewable energy production, significant land-use change resulting from biofuels may contribute to negative environmental, economic, and social impacts. Here we examined non-GHG air pollution impacts from both indirect and direct land-use change caused by the anticipated expansion of Brazilian biofuels production. We synthesized information on fuel loading, combustion completeness, and emission factors, and developed a spatially explicit approach with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to estimate air pollution emissions. The land-use change emissions, ranging from 6.7 to 26.4 Tg PM(2.5), were dominated by deforestation burning practices associated with indirect land-use change. We also found Brazilian sugar cane ethanol and soybean biodiesel including direct and indirect land-use change effects have much larger life-cycle emissions than conventional fossil fuels for six regulated air pollutants. The emissions magnitude and uncertainty decrease with longer life-cycle integration periods. Results are conditional to the single LUC scenario employed here. After LUC uncertainty, the largest source of uncertainty in LUC emissions stems from the combustion completeness during deforestation. While current biofuels cropland burning policies in Brazil seek to reduce life-cycle emissions, these policies do not address the large emissions caused by indirect land-use change.