Indicator Of Spatial Variability Research Articles

Implications for sustainable water consumption in Africa by simulating five decades (1965–2014) of groundwater recharge

Groundwater stands as a vital water resource for both present and future generations in Africa. This underscores the importance of examining the sustainability of current groundwater consumption across the continent, along with its capacity to fulfill the current human and essential environmental water needs. Groundwater sustainable yield is a suitable indicator for assessing groundwater sustainability but has not yet been quantified properly across Africa. A thorough quantification of groundwater sustainable yield necessitates a profound comprehension of the spatio-temporal fluctuations in surface hydrology, groundwater recharge, environmental flow, and sectoral water use. In this study, high spatial resolution (10 km) land surface hydrology was simulated for five decades (1965–2014) across Africa by the Community Land Model version 5 at half-hourly time step and aggregated to monthly and annual temporal resolutions. Then, groundwater recharge and environmental flow were quantified based on the water balance approach for the whole continent. Finally, by including African sectoral water use data available for four decades (1971–2010) we obtained the long-term average of groundwater sustainable yield. Based on extensive simulations of long-term land surface hydrology, we discovered that the groundwater system in Africa experienced an average annual recharge of 57.8 mm yr−1 (with a standard deviation of 110.8 mm yr−1 serving as an indicator of spatial variability), corresponding roughly to an annual recharge volume of 1793.6 km3 yr−1. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that the entire continent possesses an annual average potential sustainable yield (with standard deviations) of 4.5 mm yr−1 (10.2), 20.6 mm yr−1 (42.9), and 37.3 mm yr−1 (75.7) under conservative, optimum, and suitable water consumption scenarios, respectively. This calculated annual groundwater sustainable yield corresponds to 141.9 km3 yr−1, 643.1 km3 yr−1, and 1160.5 km3 yr−1 for the conservative, optimum, and suitable scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, the calculated sustainable yield volume is contrasted with the total water storage figures documented for 50 countries throughout Africa. The outcomes illustrate that our calculated annual sustainable yield equates to roughly 0.02%, 0.1%, and 0.17% of the reported groundwater storage across the entire continent. Based on the estimated long-term average sustainable yield and the reported total water storage at the national level, our conclusion is that the accessible groundwater resources could potentially satisfy the current water requirements of both humans and the environment in African countries. This study offers the first model-based estimation of groundwater availability across Africa, potentially serving as a catalyst to inspire further progress toward adopting more sustainable approaches to groundwater usage on the continent.

Impact of local soil and subsoil conditions on inter-individual variations in tree responses to drought: insights from Electrical Resistivity Tomography

•Inter-individual variability of tree drought responses within a stand has received little attention. Here we explore whether the spatial variations in soil/subsoil properties assessed through Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) could explain variations in drought response traits among trees.•We used ERT to compute the percent variation in resistivity (PVR) between dry and wet conditions as an indicator of spatial variability in total available water content. PVR was computed in two different depth ranges (0–2 and 2–5 m) for eleven Quercus ilex stools in a Mediterranean forest stand. PVR values were compared to biological traits, including tree water status (predawn water potential (Ψ)), leaf traits (δ13C, leaf mass area (LMA)), and canopy defoliation measured after intense drought.•We found significant correlations between PVR and biological variables. For Ψ, the nature and strength of the correlations vary according to the level of drought intensity. The correlation between Ψ and PVR was positive during well-watered conditions in the upper layer (0–2 m) and during water-limited conditions in the deeper layer (2–5 m). During most severe droughts, however, the Ψ was negatively correlated with PVR in the upper layer. Trees with lower PVR in the upper layer were also associated with water use efficiency (higher δ13C), higher LMA, and a lower level of defoliation after extreme drought.•Overall, our results indicate that local differences in soil/subsoil properties affect tree response to drought and suggest that less favorable soil/subsoil conditions (lower PVR) can lead to lower water stress during the driest period and to lower defoliation after extreme drought. Plausible explanations for this better acclimation include higher stomatal regulation and improved deep soil and subsoil water exploration by trees located in more adverse conditions. We encourage the development of ERT in ecological studies to further explore the interrelated relationships between soil/subsoil, climate, and tree functioning.

DELINEATION OF HOMOGENEOUS ZONES BASED ON GEOSTATISTICAL MODELS ROBUST TO OUTLIERS

ABSTRACT Measures of the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) of soil are used in many studies as indicators of spatial variability in physicochemical characteristics of production fields. Based on these measures, management zones (MZs) are delineated to improve agricultural management. However, these measures include outliers. The presence or incorrect identification and exclusion of outliers affect the variogram function and result in unreliable parameter estimates. Thus, the aim of this study was to model ECa data with outliers using methods based on robust approximation theory and model-based geostatistics to delineate MZs. Robust estimators developed by Cressie-Hawkins, Genton and MAD Dowd were tested. The Cressie-Hawkins semivariance estimator was selected, followed by the semivariogram cubic fit using Akaike information criterion (AIC). The robust kriging with an external drift plug-in was applied to fitted estimates, and the fuzzy k-means classifier was applied to the resulting ECa kriging map. Models with multiple MZs were evaluated using fuzzy k-means, and a map with two MZs was selected based on the fuzzy performance index (FPI), modified partition entropy (MPE) and Fukuyama-Sugeno and Xie-Beni indices. The defined MZs were validated based on differences between the ECa means using mixed linear models. The independent errors model was chosen for validation based on its AIC value. Thus, the results demonstrate that it is possible to delineate an MZ map without outlier exclusion, evidencing the efficacy of this methodology.

Spatio-temporal patterns in vegetation start of season across the island of Ireland using the MERIS Global Vegetation Index

Spring phenophases such as the beginning of leaf unfolding, measured in the Irish gardens of the International Phenological Garden (IPG) network, indicate an earlier spring occurrence hence a longer growing season. However, these measurements are limited to selected species of trees at a few point locations in the southern half of the country. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to measure the vegetation start of season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis, complementary to existing ground-based methods.The SOS metric was extracted for each year in a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, based on curve fitting, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. Spatio-temporal variability in the SOS was detected across the island on an annual basis and highlighted in a series of anomaly images showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. The 2006 SOS was late across the island while there were strong geographical gradients to the SOS anomalies in 2009 when it occurred later in the south and earlier in the north. There was a mix of early and late anomaly values throughout the country in the other years.Qualitatively, the spatial patterns in the timing of the SOS were related to the distribution of landcover types as indicated by the CORINE Land Cover map (CLC). Three statistically separable groups of CLC classes were derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that vegetation in cultivated areas like pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in areas of unmanaged vegetation such as peat bogs. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006 delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide; while a cold winter followed by a mild spring in 2009 caused considerable spatial variability in the 2009 SOS across the country, ranging from later SOS in the south to early SOS in the north.This study has demonstrated the utility of 10-day MGVI composites for derivation of an SOS metric which can be used as an indicator of spatial variability in vegetation seasonality and has highlighted how SOS varies according to landcover type. The availability of longer time series in the future will allow more focused studies on the sensitivity of the SOS metric to changes in climate as well as short term weather events.

Spatial patterns of recruitment in a demersal fish as revealed by seabird diet

Understanding recruitment in demersal fish requires determination of larval survival and delivery to appropriate settling habitats. Sanddabs Citharichthys sp. are an abundant neritic fish of Central California, an area of persistent upwelling. 'Upwelling shadows' develop in the lee of coastal promontories, retain surface waters, and may promote spatial variation in fish settlement. To test this hypothesis, we studied the diet and foraging dimensions of a seabird (Cepphus columba) specializing in sanddab consumption at windward and leeward sites over a 6 yr period. We inte- grated the bird's take of sanddab with information on upwelling intensity and variability and sanddab larval abundance based on net sampling. Seabird diet at both sub-colonies was variable, but dominated by Age 1 sanddabs. Sanddabs were more prevalent in the diet of guillemots at the lee- ward site, and diet was more variable at the windward site. Persistent upwelling led to regional increases in sanddab larval abundance which, in turn, resulted in enhanced recruitment to leeward waters, as reflected in seabird diet. Pulsed upwelling was related to apparent increased recruitment in windward waters. This study is one of the first to suggest that seabird diet can be used as an indicator of spatial variability in recruitment and settlement of demersal forage fish.