Indian Ocean States Research Articles

Africa and the Indo-Pacific Dynamics: China, India, and Japan’s Strategic Competition in Africa’s Indian Ocean States

Africa and the Indo-Pacific Dynamics: China, India, and Japan’s Strategic Competition in Africa’s Indian Ocean States

Keeping China Out, the United States In, and Pakistan Down: India's Strategy for the Indian Ocean Region

Keeping China Out, the United States In, and Pakistan Down:India's Strategy for the Indian Ocean Region Rohan Mukherjee (bio) India is a rising power with significant gaps in the translation of its economic potential into military power—gaps that may considerably widen due to the severe damage being wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic on India's economy and society. At a time when military spending relative to GDP has been declining for over a decade and personnel costs have until recently been rising at the expense of capital expenditures, the three scenarios in this exercise starkly demonstrate some of the external challenges that Indian policymakers might face in coming years. These challenges are all the more dangerous in a period when India, weakened by the pandemic, may be seen as an easier target and may itself respond aggressively to provocations for reasons of domestic or international reputation. Given these parameters, the scenarios highlight three important dimensions in which Indian thinking about the future of the Indian Ocean region will need to be flexible and sometimes run counter to dominant assumptions in New Delhi: capabilities, resolve, and partnerships. If India faced a benign security environment, its domestic weaknesses would be less pernicious and the state would have a longer runway to build itself into a major world power. In fact, the opposite is true. The scenarios highlight two major external trends that must factor into India's strategic calculus: the relative decline in U.S. capabilities and interests in the Indian Ocean, and the relative increase in Chinese capabilities and interests in this region. Both of these factors eliminate the luxury of time and increase the pressure on India to make resource allocations and political choices suited to a range of near-term potential crises and geopolitical ruptures. On the one hand, India will need to enlarge its naval footprint in the Indian Ocean region to make up for a longer-term decline in U.S. presence. On the other hand, India will need to prepare for the full spectrum of challenges from China's expansion into this region, including adventurism along the Sino-Indian border, an increased People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy presence in the Indian Ocean, deepening relationships between [End Page 29] China and Indian Ocean states, and even cyber intrusions and attacks on Indian infrastructure. India's Capabilities First, India's own capabilities will make a crucial difference to regional outcomes. This is not simply a matter of expenditure, which of course will matter, but also one of allocation. It is in China's interest to keep India tied down on its land frontiers and obsessed with the possibility of a two-front war. The working assumption of most Indian policy and defense planners is that India's major military engagements in the coming decades will be along the contested borders with Pakistan and China, respectively—an assumption further validated by the ongoing Sino-Indian standoff in Ladakh. The scenarios suggest, however, that ignoring sea power would be a grave mistake. In the extreme case of India continuing with its current naval strength without augmentation, the best the Indian Navy can do is provide coastal defense. Its existing resources are radically inadequate for sea denial—which the Indian Navy views as "an offensive measure, to reduce the adversary's freedom of action and to degrade his operations"—let alone sea control.1 India has hitherto benefited from the U.S. Navy's command of the seas in the Indian Ocean region. The U.S. Navy's ability to ensure freedom of navigation, protect maritime chokepoints, and slow the pace of China's maritime expansion into the region has allowed India to gradually develop its own naval capabilities and doctrine while devoting sufficient resources to countering land-based threats. A future scenario in which the United States withdraws from Diego Garcia or China takes hostile action against regional countries such as Indonesia would place considerable demands on the Indian Navy to assume a substantial share of the tasks fulfilled by the U.S. Navy today. To plan for such a role, Indian decision-makers will need to rethink the dominance of the army among the...

PAKISTAN’S MAGNITUDE FOR CHINA: A NARRATIVE OF GEO-STRATEGIC BARGAIN

This paper attempts to analyse the geo-strategic magnitude of Pakistan for China. Including other factors, the geographical position of Pakistan plays an important role in the formulation of their mutual ties. Sino-Indian conflict further enhanced Pak-China relationship mainly reflecting their reciprocal interests. In addition to geo-political ties, economic benefits attracted Chinese attention to maintain a friendly relationship with Pakistan by signing bilateral trade agreement during early 1960s. Similarly, Pakistan provided a naval base to China, which decreased the influence of USA and India in the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and Central Asian States. However, due to the world third deepest seaport (Gwadar Port), Pakistan became more valuable to China. Moreover, launching of China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2014 has greatly enhanced the geographical importance of Pakistan for the whole region including China. The scope of present study provides a realization to the fact that significance of Pakistan for Chinese interest is beyond the common thinking. This article tries to pin point the current scenario with increasing significance of Pakistan for China.

Shaping the regional and maritime battlefield? The Sino-Indian strategic competition in South Asia and adjoining waters

ABSTRACT In this paper, we argue that China is seeking to establish a balance of power favourable to its interests in South Asia and the adjoining waters to curtail India’s rise. Military balancing, economic engagement, and the new multi-regional connectivity project – the “Belt and Road Initiative” – are the key components of China’s policy against India. By roping in the South Asian and the Indian Ocean states, China has effectively deployed the “string of pearls” strategy with an express purpose to box-in India within the region so that it cannot challenge China’s primacy in Asia and beyond. To neutralise Beijing’s assertive activities, New Delhi has evolved its Asia policy with a clear motive to enhance its ties with the key Indo-Pacific states – the US, Japan, Australia, and the Southeast Asian countries – so that it could develop counter-leverages against China and simultaneously manage its rise as a major Indo-Pacific power. Given that both India and China are vying for similar power position in the same region, it is highly likely that their clashing interests might intensify their power competition in the near future.

Indian Ocean fisheries regulation: exploring participatory approaches to support small-scale fisheries in six States

ABSTRACTIn the Indian Ocean region fish and other marine living resources are vital for food security, local livelihoods, national economies, and future development opportunities. Of particular importance is the small-scale fishing sector, which supplies food and employment for many local people and coastal communities. To ensure the longevity of artisanal and subsistence fisheries, and healthy oceans and marine living resources, improved legal governance is critical. Most Indian Ocean States have adopted fisheries laws to achieve this goal, yet successfully balancing conservation and sustainable use of marine resources remains a challenge. To enhance fisheries laws in efficient, effective and equitable ways, inclusive governance approaches are needed. This article analyses fisheries laws in six Indian Ocean States, and critically assesses the incorporation of participatory approaches that support small-scale fisheries. The comparative analysis provides a resource that will assist States in identifying legal options to enhance public participation and inclusive fisheries governance.

Rescaling to the Indo-Pacific: From Economic to Security-Driven Regionalism in Asia

The ‘Indo-Pacific’ has emerged as the newest addition to the lexicon of Asian regionalism. Conceived of as the conjunction of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, it reflects the belief that maritime linkages require extending Asian regionalism westwards to include countries on the Indian Ocean rim. It also competes with the longstanding ‘Asia-Pacific’ conceptualisation of the region, and four governments—Australia, India, Japan and the USA—have adopted it into their foreign policies. Much of the debate on the Indo-Pacific focusses on how it institutionally ‘rescales’ Asian regionalism through the incorporation of Indian Ocean states. This article considers the functional rescaling that attends this process: namely, what kind of regionalism is implied by the Indo-Pacific concept? It argues that the Indo-Pacific is a security-focussed regional project, reflecting the desire of its proponents to form a quadrilateral bloc to resist China’s growing maritime assertiveness. This security region is radically different from the Asia-Pacific concept, where regionalism was primarily driven by economic integration and cooperation. The Indo-Pacific thus marks a more contested period in Asia’s international politics, where the functional purpose of regional cooperation is being reoriented from economic- to security-focussed agendas.

Establishing the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System for human and environmental security

The Indian Ocean Tsunami of Boxing Day, December 2004, caused loss of lives and widespread damage to infrastructure and ecosystems across Indian Ocean States. The massive tsunami rudely awakened Indian Ocean States on the dangers of ‘ocean basin wide’ hazards. It also identified the importance of coastal hazards, vulnerability, risk assessment and management and generated global interest for disaster risk reduction in coastal areas. Over the following decade the member states through regional and international collaboration, planned, designed and commenced operations of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWMS) as a highly successful end to end warning system under UNESCO/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). The objective of this paper is to share this experience, summarising important aspects including policies that had to be adopted, capacity development that had to be undertaken both with respect to technology and institutional development. The paper also describes the measures undertaken to promote institutional coordination, exchange of data and information and vital links of dialogue both on a routine basis and when a hazard is active across a region. It also highlights key learning achievements and good practices. The IOTWMS is certainly larger than the sum of its components and it has been a win-win situation to the all member states.

A roadmap to a sustainable Indian Ocean blue economy

ABSTRACTThe Indian Ocean is a vital part of the economies, livelihoods and cultural identities of the States which border or lie within its boundaries. Fisheries, offshore oil and gas, tourism and maritime industries are already making a significant contribution to the economies of the Indian Ocean states. New opportunities are appearing in these established sectors and new emerging sectors which will require a cooperative approach to capture and exploit in a sustainable manner. The ocean does not recognise geopolitical boundaries and many of its ecosystems and much of its biodiversity are transboundary which can give rise to competitive exploitation. We propose that continued, coordinated and proactive growth of the blue economies within the Indian Ocean need to be built upon principles of:• sharing of skills, data and knowledge;• integrated regional scale planning between nations;• adoption of marine-specific policies;• robust governance for industry and governments to work within and which the community understands and has confidence in its quality and operation and• collaboration between governments and industry, drawing upon the skills and capital of both of these sectors.Together, these principles will enable Indian Ocean nations to build their critical mass in skills and grow their knowledge base that will underpin sustainable blue economic growth.

Research for disaster preparedness

Research for disaster preparedness

The 'great base race' in the Indian Ocean littoral: Conflict prevention or stimulation?

Military strongholds often have played a major role in the shaping of the destiny of the Indian Ocean, its littoral, and much of world history. This increasingly is true today, as Indian Ocean states--India, Pakistan, Burma, and Malaysia among others--have been executing military infrastructure projects of various dimensions. Many of these new facilities are intended for power projection. A distinct departure from the pattern of past decades, this dynamism reflects the new wealth and confidence of some of these states, the increased importance of connectivity (and the porous nature of maritime borders) in this era of globalization, the presence in the Indian Ocean of vital natural resources (especially oil and gas), and the 'rise' of India. Although new naval bases being established in the area will deepen the identity and coherence of the Indian Ocean as a region, this new 'great base race' will make war, at least among the ocean's littoral states, a more practicable option than previously. Also, over time, these new facilities will make it more difficult for Western powers, including the United States, to block or moderate the power of Asian states.

Building blocks for maritime security in the Indian Ocean

Marine affairs is of common interest to all littoral and island Indian Ocean states. This article therefore argues that it is an excellent “building block”; for maritime security and cooperation in the region. Some suggestions are outlined to strengthen a building block approach to maritime security in the Indian Ocean.

Antarctica and the indian ocean states: The interplay of law, interests, and geopolitics

Abstract The Indian Ocean littoral states represent a microcosm of the Group of 77 members that began to dabble in Antarctic politics during the 1980s and used the United Nations General Assembly as their main forum. The economic interests and legal priorities of these developing countries have come into conflict with the Antarctic Treaty System, the legal arrangement of largely non‐Indian Ocean states that has evolved for administering the region. Recent developments in Antarctic affairs may exacerbate the tensions in the frozen south: the “Malaysian initiative”; to extend the notion of “common heritage of mankind”; to the Antarctic; the impending 1991 date and the possible convening of an Antarctic Treaty review conference; and the apparent collapse of the 1988 Antarctic mineral resource treaty because of the opposition of France and Australia—these circumstances may complicate the Antarctic legal situation and make future scientific cooperation and peaceful uses only of the region more difficult. If a minerals regime is eventually put in place, the critical test will come in the protection and conservation of the fragile Antarctic environment. As population pressures mount, Indian Ocean littoral states are likely to perceive greater economic opportunities in the Antarctic. The key to realizing benefits for all interested states from future activities in the Antarctic is stability of the management regime, a quality commendably supplied for 30 years by the Antarctic Treaty System.

The Indian Ocean: An Emerging Geostrategic Region

2 Ibid, 64. 3 There are 36 independent Indian Ocean states. The littoral states, from southwest to southeast around the perimeter, are: South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen), the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen), Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and Australia. The island states are: Madagascar, the Comoros, the Seychelles, Mauritius, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka.

The Emerging Political Economy of the Indian Ocean and United States Policy toward Africa

The Emerging Political Economy of the Indian Ocean and United States Policy toward Africa