India Meteorological Department Research Articles

Development of India Meteorological Department: High Resolution Rapid Refresh (IMD-HRRR) Modeling System for Very Short Range Weather Forecasting

Development of India Meteorological Department: High Resolution Rapid Refresh (IMD-HRRR) Modeling System for Very Short Range Weather Forecasting

Temperature and precipitation projection in the lower Mahanadi Basin through machine learning methods

This study examined climate change dynamics in the lower Mahanadi River basin by integrating observed and climate model data. Historical precipitation and temperature data (1979–2020) from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and monthly climate model data from the CORDEX-SMHI-MIROC model via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) are utilized. Four machine learning models (Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM RNN, and SARIMAX) are applied to forecast precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin, and are compared across different representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) scenarios. Diverse trajectories emerge, highlighting potential shifts in precipitation and temperature dynamics over near, mid, and far-term intervals. Fbprophet and SARIMAX are identified as superior models through performance evaluation metrics (R2, RMSE, r, P-bias, and NSE). Spatial analysis using ArcGIS and IDW interpolation reveals spatial variations in climate projections, aiding in visualizing future climate trends within the Mahanadi Basin. This study acknowledges limitations such as historical data uncertainties, socio-economic indicators, and unpredictable RCP trajectories, introducing a novel method to integrate machine learning with climate model data for assessing reliability. It also explores anticipated shifts in monthly precipitation and temperature patterns, providing insights into future climate variations.

Runoff Dynamics and Soil Erosion Assessment using a SWAT Model at Upper Cauvery River Basin

The increasing availability of geospatial datasets on watershed characteristics and hydro-meteorological variables emphasises the importance of integrated hydrological models for effective catchment management. Climatic and physiographic determinants such as topography, land use, soil properties, and anthropogenic interventions substantially influence a catchment's hydrological equilibrium. The SWAT model was used to elucidate rainfall-runoff dynamics in the Upper Cauvery River Basin, Karnataka, India (36,682 km²), applying the SCS Curve Number (CN) method for runoff estimation. Runoff was estimated for 2012–2021 using rainfall data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), soil data from the FAO, and land use/land cover and slope datasets.Soil erosion, exacerbated by intensified agricultural practices, was evaluated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The SWAT model results showed that runoff accounted for 15-20% of the total precipitation, with an annual soil loss of 2027.95 tons. The predominance of agricultural land use, covering 66.29% of the basin, significantly contributed to high runoff, whereas the forested areas (26.48%) demonstrated a low runoff potential. About 38% of the basin exhibited a very low soil loss risk, while 11% was classified as high risk and 9% as very high risk. The SWAT model is recognized for its robustness, and this research aims to leverage its capabilities to validate its effectiveness in estimating runoff and erosion, providing crucial insights for advancing sustainable catchment resource management.

Establishing Climate Change on Rainfall Trend, Variation and Change Point Pattern in Umuahia, Nigeria

This study investigates the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in Umuahia, Nigeria, using daily annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data spanning 31 years. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) was employed to downscale the time series data into durations ranging from 5 minutes to 24 hours. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen's Slope Estimator (SSE) tests revealed a statistically significant increasing trend across all durations. The Sen's Slope magnitude ranged from 0.1373 mm/year for 5-minute duration to 0.9045 mm/year for 24-hour duration, corresponding to a variation rate of 9.05 mm/decade for the 24-hour duration. Trend change-point analysis, utilizing Distribution-free CUSUM and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests, identified 2002 as the initial rainfall change-point date. These results provide robust evidence of positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in Umuahia, indicating that non-stationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling may be more appropriate for flood risk management and urban planning in this area.

Evaluating the performances of SVR and XGBoost for short-range forecasting of heatwaves across different temperature zones of India

This research aims to forecast maximum temperatures and the frequency of heatwave days across four different temperature zones (Zone 1, 2, 3 and 4) in India. These four zones are categorized based on the 30-year average maximum temperatures (T30AMT) during the summer months of April, May, and June (AMJ). Two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are employed to achieve this goal. The study utilizes nine key atmospheric variables namely air temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, U-wind, V-wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, sea surface temperature, and mean sea level pressure at a daily scale spanning from 1991 to 2020 for the months of March, April, May, and June as predictors. The India Meteorological Department daily maximum temperature data spanning from 1991 to 2020 for the months of AMJ serves as the predictands. ML models are developed using spatially averaged atmospheric variables and daily maximum temperature across the grids falling within each temperature zone. Results indicate that for a 7-day lead time, SVR outperforms XGBoost in Zone-1 (T30AMT > 38 °C) and Zone-2 (T30AMT: 35.01 °C–38 °C) by more accurately capturing peak temperatures during training and testing. Conversely, for a 15-day lead time in Zone-1, XGBoost better predicts temperature peaks in both phases. In Zone-3 (T30AMT: 30 °C–35 °C) and Zone-4 (T30AMT < 30 °C) for both lead times, the performance of both models decline, indicating models and input variables are more effective in predicting higher temperatures typical of Zone-1 and 2 but less so in Zone-3 and 4. In a nutshell, the study attempts to highlight the capability of advanced ML techniques combined with spatial climate data to enhance the prediction of extreme heatwave events. These insights can aid in heatwave preparedness, climate management, and adaptation strategies for different Indian temperature zones.

Utilizing statistical distribution tests to develop rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves for enhanced hydrological analysis in Kirkuk city, Iraq

ABSTRACT Rainfall intensity is considered one of the basic factors in designing hydrological models based on rainstorm data. The objective of this research is to employ novel intensity–duration–frequency curves and develop empirical equations for rainfall intensity in the city of Kirkuk. The reduction formula adopted by the Indian Meteorological Department was used to divide the maximum daily rainfall for short periods of 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, and 24 h. Three key methods of frequency analysis (lognormal distribution, log Pearson type III distribution, and Gumbel extreme value distribution) were utilized to formulate a statistical relationship based on rainfall intensity data from between the years 1981 and 2023 for a gauging station upstream of the Kirkuk city basin to provide the best data set for all periods of 100, 50, 25, 10, 5, and 2 years. Research has shown that the logarithmic distribution is the best fit for modelling the relationship between the annual maximum rainfall at Kirkuk station and duration of the rainfall. The goodness-of-fit results indicate that the lognormal distribution statistically outperforms other distribution models. Hence, the generated rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency curves that were developed led to estimating the intensity of precipitation to build forecasting and hydrological behaviour of the Kirkuk city basin.

Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Distribution of Precipitation over West Central India: A Statistical Downscaling Approach

The long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns are referred to as climate change. Climate change not only leads to long-term shifts in average temperatures but also changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall over continents. This study aims to predict likely changes in the rainfall pattern induced by climate change over the West Central (WC) region of India. The approach uses a statistical downscaling technique that converts coarse-scale outputs of the global climate model (GCM) to high-resolution future precipitation projections giving refined distribution. The decision support tool that uses a robust statistical downscaling technique viz. statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is used for assessing local climate change impacts. The research includes the study of likely regional climate variability, by integrating historical observational data and empirical relationships between large-scale climate variables and local weather patterns. Historical data and the SDSM, version 4.2, are employed to forecast future rainfall trends. Rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) from 1961 to 2001 are used along with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs), viz. Hadley Centre coupled model, version 3 (HadCM3), and coupled global climate model, version 3 (CGCM3), for the period 1961–2099. Rainfall scenarios are presented for three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099). The study indicates a significant increase in the mean annual precipitation across the West Central India region, particularly in the 2050s and 2080s. Mean annual rainfall is projected to rise by 10–19.4% under HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios. The HadCM3 indicates the month of September as the month of the highest precipitation in later time periods, whereas it is the month of August, according to CGCM3 simulations. When comparing the results of the two models, HadCM3 gives better results, as indicated by better R2 value in validation. Thus, the analysis gives climate change-induced likely changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over the West Central India region. The insight given by the work will be useful for decision making in many sectors like agriculture, water management, disaster risk reduction, and infrastructure planning.

Influence of mixed Rossby-Gravity waves on the North-East monsoon rainfall over south India

The northeast (NE) monsoon contributes considerable annual rainfall over southern peninsular India. Here, an attempt has been made to evaluate the role of convectively coupled mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves on the variabilities of NE monsoon rainfall. The gridded rainfall data from 1980 to 2021 from the India Meteorological Department shows large interannual variability in NE monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India. Wavelet analysis of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data shows the dominance of short-period waves over the equatorial Indian Ocean during the years with above-normal NE monsoon rainfall compared to below-normal rainfall years. The space–time spectral analysis further confirms the dominance of short-period westward propagating convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEW) during above-normal NE monsoon rainfall years. In contrast, the eastward component of CCEWs dominates during the below-normal rainfall years. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of MRG waves filtered OLR data shows that the first two leading modes explain more than 14 % of variability over the Indian Ocean domain. Moreover, the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence indicates the role of MRG wave in triggering the extreme rainfall over southern peninsular India and also offers favorable conditions for the formation of cyclogenesis and, thereby, inducing heavy rainfall over the South Indian domain. Thus, the results suggest that the westward propagating MRG waves play a seminal role in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India.

Spatiotemporal performance evaluation of high-resolution multiple satellite and reanalysis precipitation products over the semiarid region of India.

The present investigation evaluates three satellite precipitation products (SPPs), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Climate Hazard Infrared Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS), and two reanalysis datasets, namely, the ERA5 atmosphere reanalysis dataset (ERA5) and Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA), against the good quality gridded reference dataset (1991-2022) developed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The evaluation was carried out in terms of the rainfall detection ability and estimation accuracy of the products using metrics such as the false alarm ratio (FAR), probability of detection (POD), misses, root mean square error (RMSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). Among all the rainfall products, ERA5 had the best ability to capture rainfall events with a higher POD, followed by MSWEP. Both MSWEP and ERA5 had PODs of 70-100% in more than 90% of the grids and less than 35% of missing rainfall events in the entire Tamil Nadu. In the case of the rainfall estimation accuracy evaluation, the MSWEP exhibited superior performance, with lower RMSEs and biases ranging from - 25 to 25% at the annual and seasonal scales. In northeast monsoon (NEM), CHIRPS demonstrated a comparable performance to that of MSWEP in terms of the RMSE and PBIAS. These findings will help product users select the best reliable rainfall dataset for improved research, diversified applications in various sectors, and policy-making decisions.

Study of Natural Disaster in Manali Valley (Himachal Pradesh), India on 09 July 2023

Continuous heavy rainfall in July 2023, particularly from the 7th to the 10th, led to devastating flash floods, cloudbursts, and landslides in Himachal Pradesh, causing extensive damage to infrastructure, properties, and loss of lives. The most severely affected districts were Kullu, Mandi, Sirmaur, Shimla, Solan, and nearby areas. Manali sub-division, located in Himachal Pradesh, spans an altitude range of 1074 to 4017 meters above sea level. The region's climate is shaped by its mountainous terrain, with the Beas Valley's weather influenced by factors like relief, aspect, and altitude. The Pir Panjal Range's windward slopes create a barrier to monsoon winds, resulting in heavy rainfall and cloudbursts in the area. The report from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, on July 12, 2023, highlighted the active monsoon conditions in the state from July 7th to 10th, exacerbated by a Western Disturbance (WD). This combination led to intense and unprecedented rainfall, causing extensive damage to public and private properties, particularly in hilly regions. The report mentioned that similar disasters have occurred in the past due to heavy rainfall, cloudbursts, and landslides, possibly exacerbated by factors like unscientific construction, climate change, and increased human activities, including tourism. The report emphasized the need for accurate predictions and proactive planning to mitigate such disasters in the future.

Estimation of energy available in rain droplets from meteorological rainfall data

Abstract Even though the amount of rainfall is well documented in the reports of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the rainfall energy available in different parts of India is unknown to the best of our knowledge. This paper reports a theoretical framework to convert the meteorological rainfall data to rainfall energy. The amount of rainfall over the south-west Monsoon period of 2022 is first converted to an average rainfall rate. Using the information on rain droplet size distribution for a rainfall of a given rainfall rate, the total energy contained in the rainfall is derived. In this, both the kinetic and surface energies of rain droplets of different sizes are considered. Based on the developed theoretical framework, rainfall map of India is converted to rainfall energy map showing states/union territories with maximum and minimum rainfall energy. Furthermore, for selected states in India, the districts showing maximum and minimum rainfall energy are also highlighted. The framework developed in the present study would help attempts to develop efficient rain energy harvesting systems.

Cirrus cloud occurrence and its geometrical and optical properties during the transient monsoon conditions

Knowledge of variation in the percentage occurrence of the cirrus clouds (POC) during transient monsoon conditions is essential for understanding the role of the monsoon in transporting the water vapor into the lower stratosphere which is vital in quantifying the radiation budget of the earth–atmosphere system. In this paper, we present the spatial structure of the POC, the geometrical properties such as cloud top and base height (CTH & CBH), cloud thickness (CTH-CBH), optical properties such as optically thick, thin, and subvisible cirrus clouds during the active and break phases of the Asian summer monsoon using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) during July–August 2006–2018. The active and break phases are identified based on the central India rainfall from the India Meteorological Department dataset. The POC is found to be higher by 10–30 % over central India and some parts of the eastern Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the active phase compared to the break phase which shows enhancement in POC over the foothill of Himalaya and southern part of BoB and AS. The higher POC is attributed to the increase in the convective activities associated with the increase in tropical easterly jet during the active phase. The CTH and CBH range ~14–18 km and 12–16 km, respectively during the active phase compared to the break phase. The contributions of optically thick and thin clouds are higher in POC during both phases compared to subvisible clouds. Both convectively generated and in situ-formed cirrus clouds dominate during the active phase compared to the break phase indicating the dominance of the freeze-drying processes during the active phase.

Assessing climate trends in the Northwestern Himalayas: a comprehensive analysis of high-resolution gridded and observed datasets

Climate change poses significant challenges to the Himalayas, a region characterised by its fragile ecosystems and vulnerable communities dependent on environmental resources. Accurate climate data are crucial for understanding regional climatic variations and assessing climate change impacts, particularly in areas with limited observational networks. This study represents a pioneering effort in evaluating climatic fluctuations in the Jhelum basin, located in the North Western Himalayas, by utilising a diverse range of gridded meteorological datasets (APHRODITE, CHIRPS, CRU, and IMDAA) alongside observed climate data from the Indian Meteorological Department. The primary goal is to identify the most effective gridded climate data product for regions with limited data and to explore the potential of combining gridded data sets with observed data to understand climatic variability. Findings indicate a consistent upward trend in temperature across all datasets, with varying rates of increase. CRU records a rise of 1 °C in Tmax and 1.6 °C in Tmin, while APHRODITE shows a Tmean increase of approximately 1 °C. IMDAA reports increases in Tmax and Tmin. Observed mean annual Tmax and Tmin show net increases of 1 °C and 0.6 °C, respectively. Regarding precipitation, all datasets except IMDAA exhibit an increasing trend, contrary to observed data, which decreases from 1266 mm to 1068 mm over 40 years. CHIRPS, CRU, and APHRODITE display increasing trends, while IMDAA aligns closely with observed data but tends to overestimate precipitation by about 30%. Our research identifies IMDAA as the most suitable gridded climate data for the Jhelum basin in the North-western Himalayas. Despite some discrepancies in precipitation trends, IMDAA closely aligns with observed data, providing valuable insights for scholars and policymakers navigating climate data uncertainties in complex environments. Our findings contribute to informed decision-making and effective climate change mitigation strategies in the region.

A study on meteorological characteristics and its consequences on human mortality in Rajkot City, Gujarat

Abstract Background: Climate change presents a crucial threat to human health. The health of human is affected by heat waves and extreme weather events. Hence, the present study was planned to explore weather conditions and their consequences on mortality of human being by accessing the meteorological and mortality data. Methodology: Meteorological data include maximum and minimum temperature, average wind speed, and total rainfall; relative humidity was obtained for January 1, 2017–December 31, 2021, from India Meteorological Department, Pune. Trend analysis of climatic variables was done. Human mortality data were obtained from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2020, from Health Department, Rajkot Municipal Corporation, Rajkot. The impact of temperature and rainfall on mortality was observed. Results: Upward trend of maximum temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity while downward trend for minimum temperature and average wind speed was observed. Human mortality due to communicable and noncommunicable diseases was not affected by maximum temperature. The effect of rainfall on mortality due to vector-borne diseases was observed. Conclusion: The effect of rainfall on human mortality was observed. Upward and downward trend of climatic variables was not found to be statistically significant. Further study needs to be conducted by analyzing climate data over a longer duration and across a larger geographical area.

Assessment of ISRO’s S-band polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) at SHAR with IMD-DWR and GPM-Ku radar

ABSTRACT This paper describes the first assessment of ISRO’s indigenously developed S-band Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) at Sriharikota High Altitude Range (SHAR), Sriharikota (13.66°N, 80.23°E). The assessment is done during the passage of a tropical cyclone ‘Phethai’ and four different cases of Mesoscale convective systems. A comparison of reflectivity measured from SHAR-DWR with India Meteorological Department (IMD) DWR located at Chennai (13.07°N, 80.28°E) and Ku-band space-borne radar of the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) is done using the common volume matching method. A good comparison is observed between SHAR-DWR with IMD-DWR and GPM-Ku radar in both space and height. The vertical structure of the cyclone is provided using Contour Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFAD) which show the vertical extent up to an altitude of 16 km with a reflectivity between 25 and 30 dBZ. Maximum occurrence of 30 dBZ occurs below 6 km. Bright band signatures show ~ 25 dBZ between 4 and 5 km depicting the stratiform precipitation of the cyclone. Further rain rate is estimated using both reflectivity and the polarimetric product which compared well with rain estimated from IMD-DWR and rainfall observed from rain gauges. Rain rate is observed from 5 to 35 mm hr−1. Hydrometer classification during the passage of tropical cyclone ‘Phethai’ shows the presence of rain below 4 km and graupels, ice crystals, and large droplets above.

An innovative method for improving rainfall prediction in Gujarat state through a fusion model DWT, 1DCNN and LSTM

In countries like India where agriculture is a major industry, accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial. The ability to forecast rainfall helps in planning crop cultivation and has a positive impact on both local and national economies. Nevertheless, conventional statistical techniques prove inadequate for forecasting precipitation over extended periods of time owing to the erratic characteristics inherent in climate phenomena. To address this issue, various ML models such as Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Discrete Wavelet Transform, have been explored for precipitation prediction. Large-scale data analysis and overcoming intricate challenges have become achievable through the utilization of deep learning, which has proven to be a potent approach. It combines the advantages of multiple methodologies and algorithms in order to develop accurate precipitation forecasting models. In this study, researchers treated rainfall time series as signals and used the Discrete Wavelet Transform method along with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network methods to analyze and reconstruct these signals. The research employed a dataset acquired from the Indian Meteorological Department and NASA, covering the years 1901 to 2022. This extensive collection comprised diverse meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, wet bulb temperature, Surface Pressure, soil dampness levels, relative humidity, temperatures (min and max), wind speed data in addition to rainfall records. The fusion of these three methods - DWT-CNN-LSTM deep model - consistently demonstrated excellent performance in key evaluation metrics such as MAE and RMSE. This approach achieved remarkable results in accurately predicting precipitation patterns for Gujarat State over the specified time period.

Evaluating hydrological responses of satellite precipitation products over an Indian tropical catchment through a distributed physical model

AbstractSignificant advancements in satellite‐based precipitation retrieval algorithms have led to the development of continuous, quasi‐global precipitation products, offering unique opportunities for hydrometeorological and climate research. In this context, six satellite‐based precipitation products (SPPs), including CHIRPS, CMORPH, GSMaP, IMERG, MSWEP, and PERSIANN, were thoroughly investigated for their application in hydrological simulations over the Wardha River basin in India. The observed gridded precipitation product developed by India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been used as reference data to evaluate the performance of SPPs. Hydrological variables such as runoff, soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The performances of SPPs are critically assessed using various statistical metrics, including Pearson's correlation coefficient (R), Klinga‐Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE), and the RMSE to standard deviation ratio (RSR). The model‐simulated discharge was compared with streamflow observations at a single gauging site, while a spatially distributed comparison was conducted between simulated SM and ET and satellite‐based SM and ET. The IMD dataset consistently shows superior performance for discharge simulation at both daily and monthly scales, with KGE values of 0.85 and 0.91, respectively. Among SPPs, MSWEP and CHIRPS excel in simulating daily and monthly discharge, respectively. For ET simulation, CHIRPS outperforms IMD and other SPPs, achieving an overall KGE value of 0.37. In contrast, PERSIANN is the most effective for simulating SM compared to other precipitation products.

Modelling climate change-induced nonstationarity in rainfall extremes: A comprehensive approach for hydrological analysis

Climate change and global warming have induced a dynamic shift in extreme rainfall patterns, leading to nonstationary behaviour. This alteration in behaviour challenges conventional hydrologic design, which assumes stationarity and can yield misleading outcomes. This study aims to address nonstationarity by modelling distribution parameters with covariates. Utilizing a 70-year (1951–2020) high-resolution India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded dataset, extreme annual rainfall across diverse Indian cities was extracted and modelled. Previous research and goodness-of-fit tests favour the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for modelling extremes. This study incorporates indices like Nino3.4, dipole mode index, global and local temperature, CO2, and time to characterize nonstationarity in extreme annual rainfall, leveraging climate cycles and global warming. Performance assessment employs the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and Likelihood ratio test, while quantile reliability is evaluated through confidence intervals (CIs). Findings reveal widespread nonstationary trends in most grid points, translating to wider CIs in estimated quantiles for chosen non-exceedance probability and covariates in fitted models. Generally, nonstationary conditions are associated with broader confidence bands in return levels, highlighting nonstationary model weaknesses compared to stationary models. However, the results showed that the rainfall extremes follow a nonstationary pattern. Hence, there is a strong need to develop nonstationary models of low uncertainty.

Analysing the Temporal Variation of \(ET_0\) and Water Requirement of Mustard (Brassica juncea L.) Over Different Agroclimatic Zones of Uttar Pradesh by Using CROPWAT

The agriculture sector is a major consumer of the water resource to fulfill the requirement of irrigation and its dependency on ground water is 70-90%. It is important to understand the crop water requirement to prepare a sustainable management of water resources. The Experiment was conducted for estimation of water requirement of Mustard crop and temporal variability of crop evapotranspiration for different Agroclimatic zones of Uttar Pradesh during time period (1992-2022). In this India Meteorological Department (IMD) Daily Gridded data (Maximum temperature, Minimum temperature and rainfall) is used and converted into Weekly, Monthly, Seasonally and Annually from Weather cock for run in the CROPWAT model which estimate the Reference evapotranspiration (ET0), Effective Rainfall, Crop water requirement and Irrigation water requirement. After that we analyze the trend by using Mann-Kendall test. The result of the experiment revealed that the Average maximum temperature was 32.13±0.37℃ and average minimum temperature was 18.96±0.35℃ average rainfall estimated 638.45±170.92mm. The monthly analysis of maximum temperature for 30 years data revealed that the month of January has lowest maximum temperature while May month observes highest maximum temperature for all the nine Agroclimatic zones of Uttar Pradesh and the lowest minimum temperature was in month of January in all the agroclimatic zones. The monthly analysis of rainfall for time period (1992-2022) showed that for overall Uttar Pradesh region July, August month receives the highest amount of rainfall, while November, December month receives lowest rainfall.

Variations of compound warm, dry, wet, and cold climate extremes in India during 1951 to 2014

The simultaneous occurrence of climate extremes significantly impacts ecosystems, increasing the vulnerability to physical risks. Despite extensive research on hot extremes and droughts globally, there remains a significant gap in comprehending the occurrence, magnitude, spatial extent, and associated risks of compound extremes, encompassing scenarios like warm/dry, cold/dry, warm/wet, and cold/wet. This study investigates various compound extreme scenarios by examining combinations of maximum temperature (Tx) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using monthly data from 1951 to 2014 acquired from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for Indian landmass. From the results, the spatial extent of warm/dry events has increased at 1.8 % per decade, while cold/wet events decreased by 1.1 % over India. The warm/wet events have shown an increased trend of about 0.3 %, and cold/dry events at modest rise of 0.7 % per decade. Furthermore, compound warm/dry and cold/wet extremes over India exhibit extreme frequency and shorter return periods, posing greater risk. Conversely, compound cold/dry and warm/wet extremes occur less often, indicating longer return periods and lower risk. Across much of the country, the frequency of warm/dry, cold/dry, warm/wet, and cold/wet extremes ranges from 30 to 45, 15–30, 20–30, and 25–45 months, respectively. Notably, warm/dry conditions exhibit increased frequency in the recent period (1983–2014) with 31 years compared to the base period (1951–1982) which had approximately 24 years for a spatial extent exceeding 5 %. The findings of this study contribute to an enhanced understanding of the changes in compound climate extremes from a multivariate perspective.