Index Crime Rates Research Articles

Crime in a Time of Cannabis: Estimating the Effect of Legalizing Marijuana on Crime Rates in Colorado and Washington Using the Synthetic Control Method

The legalization of marijuana for recreational use continues to expand across America. Colorado and Washington were the first states to legalize marijuana in 2012. A primary concern regarding legalization is how these policy changes affect crime rates. Researchers have begun to estimate the effect marijuana legalization has had on crime rates. We extend this literature by using a different analytical approach. State level data covering years 2000–2019 were analyzed using the synthetic control method to find that legalizing marijuana for recreational use in Colorado and Washington was generally not associated with variations in index crime rates. These findings substantiate prior research. Increased crime rates should not be a primary concern as more states move to adopt recreational marijuana use legislation. Instead, the benefits to states via harm reduction, increased tax revenue, and a more efficient allocation of policing resources ought to be more of a consideration for states when passing recreational marijuana legislation.

Shaping the Public Perception Toward Local Authorities: The Role of Perceived Social, Economic, and Political Insecurities

The Philippines is currently experiencing increased police presence and intensified policing programs with President Duterte’s declaration of war against criminality and illegal drugs front lined by the Philippine National Police (PNP). While the country’s index crime rate is reportedly declining because of these heightened policing programs, this does not necessarily translate to a more positive Filipino public perception toward the police and other local law enforcement authorities. Using the Crime Risk Perceptions Survey of 1,200 households in Metro Manila, this study attempted to probe the individual and contextual level variables that potentially influence the Filipino perception toward the local authorities – police and local community brigade or barangay tanod. The findings of the paper showed that perceived insecurity exhibited negative impact on perceived satisfaction of respondents toward the performance of local authorities across all the five models. This result corroborates Easton’s (1965 cited in Brandl et al 1994) and Cao et al (1998, 2001, 2005) frameworks that perceptions toward the police is greatly determined by perceptions toward other institutions in the society.

Are Minority Areas Disproportionately Targeted for Halfway House Placement?

The geographic placement of halfway houses is an important issue in the field of community corrections. Much research has underscored the social justice issues involved with the subsidization and placement of halfway houses within certain communities. A commonly held belief is that state and local governments actively target lower socioeconomic status, minority communities for the placement of houses, as residents have little power to resist. This article uses data collected on Connecticut towns from 2000 to 2008 and reveals that state-subsidized halfway houses are significantly more likely to be sited in non-White communities with high index crime rates.

Variation in Adult and Juvenile Arrest Rates: The Influence of City Size and Metropolitan Environment

Since the mid-1990s, the index crime rate has steadily decreased while the rate for Part II offenses has increased. The current study examines these differences from 1990 to 2004 using arrest rate data from the 35 largest cities in the state of Texas. Cluster regression analyses is employed to examine the effect of city size and city location, whether the city is part of a larger metropolitan area or “stand-alone,” to explain variation in juvenile and adult arrest rates by category of offense (violent, property, Part II) while controlling for the influence of social disorganization variables. Findings indicate that differences exist in the arrest rates for almost all types of offenses in mid-size versus very large cities. Contrasting adult versus juvenile arrest rates, city size and city location offer limited explanation for variation over time. Implications of these findings are discussed in the context of suggested policy and research directions.

An Evaluation of Compstat’s Effect on Crime: The Fort Worth Experience

Compstat as a policing strategy became popular following the significant crime reduction in New York City during the 1990s. As an innovative management strategy in policing, Compstat attracted considerable attention from scholars and police practitioners. Despite its popularity, little empirical research has scientifically evaluated the effectiveness of the Compstat strategy. In addition, few studies have concentrated on Compstat strategies implemented during the 2000s outside New York City. This study examines the effectiveness of Compstat as implemented by the Fort Worth (Texas) Police Department (FWPD). Using monthly time-series arrest and crime data over a multiyear period, the study examines whether Compstat engendered a significant increase in “broken windows” arrests (minor nuisance offenses) and, using multivariate time-series analysis, the role of the Compstat strategy in explaining changes in violent, property, and total index crimes. Findings indicate that the implementation of Compstat significantly increased some types of broken windows arrests in the FWPD whereas others decreased. Analysis indicates significant decreases in property and total index crime rates after controlling for rival factors, but fails to show a significant change in violent crime rates. If the Fort Worth strategic approach to Compstat had to be described with a single word, it would be focusing. The Queensland study of Compstat also reported using a problem-oriented intervention model—focusing—in lieu of a broken windows approach (Mazerolle, Rombouts, & McBroom, 2007). Property crime was significantly reduced in both settings. Parallel findings from two differently constituted Compstat programs on two different continents provides evidence that the primary component of the Compstat model is focusing, not broken windows enforcement, and the primary impact is on property crime.

Police levels and crime rates: An instrumental variables approach

While police levels may affect crime, governments may react to crime by increasing police levels. The instrumental variables (IV) approach to this problem has proven difficult due to the problem of locating instruments for police levels. Using panel data from over 5000 cities (1990–2001), we instrumented police levels with two types of federal law enforcement grants, thus yielding over-identified models. We also subjected our instruments to both relevance and validity testing, a step authors of similar studies have yet to take. We found fairly robust inverse associations between police levels and four index crime rates (homicide, robbery, assault, and burglary), but mainly in large cities.

THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT BLOCK GRANTS ON SERIOUS CRIME*

Research Summary The Local Law Enforcement Block Grants (LLEBG) Program was second only to the Community‐Oriented Policing Services (COPS) Program in its funding levels. Some $3 billion was dispensed to local jurisdictions to reduce crime and improve public safety; yet the effects of LLEBG funding on crime have been all but ignored. Accordingly, panel data from more than 5,000 cities covering a 12‐year period (1990–2001) were collected, and index crime rates were regressed on LLEBG funding and appropriate demographic controls. Additional controls for police levels and other federal grants were also introduced, proper checks for endogeneity of grants (and police levels) were performed, and the models were subjected to an array of robustness checks. A consistent message emerged: LLEBG Program funding was associated with significant reductions in serious crime. Policy Implications Although LLEBG funding seemed to reduce serious crime, the results also revealed that the decrease did not occur through the hiring of additional police officers, even though many funds were used for that purpose. Other mechanisms were thus at work, but the data did not provide insights into what these mechanisms were. In any case, every $1 in LLEBG funding per capita was associated with approximately 59 fewer index crimes per 100,000 people. When combined with the findings from recent studies of the effects of community policing grants on crime, this study suggests additional federal support for local law‐enforcement agencies should be considered.

Social disorganizations and crime rates in U.S. central cities: Toward an explanation of urban economic change

Little attention has been paid to the simultaneous impacts of urban economic change, in particular the effects of industrial restructuring from manufacturing to service industries in central cities and the suburbanization of employment, on both central-city social disorganizations and crime rates in central cities. This study first assumes that urban economic decline aggravates central-city social disorganizations (family disruption, and population mobility). Second, this study proposes that urban economic decline increases central-city crime rates (seven index crime rates). This study used four predictors of economic transformations in an intrametropolitan area between 1980 and 1990 to measure urban economic change. Three of these measures were indicators of central-city economic change (changes in central-city employment ratio of service to manufacturing sectors, unemployment rate, and poverty rate), and one was an indicator of suburban economic change (suburban employment rate). Results from a sample of 153 central cities confirmed that a rise in the central-city employment ratio accelerated suburban population mobility. After including two measures of social disorganizations, urban economic change had a significant effect on central-city crime rates, in which a decline in manufacturing employment, relative to service employment, increased three central-city crime rates: aggravated assault, larceny, and burglary rates. Two central-city crime rates, rape and larceny, increased with a rise in central-city poverty rate, as well. In contrast, suburban employment growth was related to a decrease in central-city violent crime rates.

What Recent Studies Do (and Don't) Tell Us about Imprisonment and Crime

Despite three decades of study and a nationwide quasi experiment of unprecedented scale, it is still uncertain how large an effect prisons have on the crime rate. Researchers have learned some things along the way. We no longer use cross-sectional data sets because they make it impossible to separate simultaneous effects; we no longer use national time-series data and ratio variables because they produce inflated estimates. Better methods have improved the validity and narrowed the scope of recent estimates. Most studies show that doubling current U. S. prison capacity would reduce Index Crime rates by 20-40 percent. Nevertheless, some problems persist: simultaneity (just as prison affects crime, so does crime affect prison, and it is difficult to isolate one effect from the other); specification error (especially left-out variables); and difficulties in comparing among states (since different states use their prisons very differently). Perhaps most important, the range of estimates itself falls in an awk...

The Direct and Indirect Effects of Socio-Economic Variables on State Imprisonment Rates

Almost two decades of research on the exact relationship between socio-economic variables and the rate of incarceration has produced highly divergent results. Some of these inconsistencies may be due to the various models specified (some use total crime rather than violent, and some control for system level variables while others do not). Virtually all of the previous research has focused on the direct effect only. Utilizing 1990 cross-sectional state level data this study examines the direct and indirect effects of socio-economic variables on imprisonment rates while controlling for arrests or crimes rates and system level variables (e.g., prison admissions and releases). Models using arrest rate data rather than crime rates were included to capture the effect of the recent "war on drugs" on imprisonment which is not included in the Index Crime rate data. These data reveal that percent nonwhite has a significant and direct effect on imprisonment levels across the U.S., but less of a direct effect in nonsouthern states. The data also document that percent nonwhite has a substantial indirect effect. The indirect effect of economic inequality is greater than the direct effect. Finally, there was no variation in the effects of extra-legal variables between those models which controlled for system level data and those which did not.

Criminal behaviour and youth in the labour market: the case of the pernicious minimum wage

This paper empirically tests the relationship between variations in Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) index crime rates for teenagers 16–19 years of age with changes in the real minimum wage adjusted for industry coverage in the United States for the period 1960–1987. The analysis reveals that there exists a positive relationship between changes in the real minimum wage and teenage criminal homicide, forcible rape, and motor vehicle theft crime rates. These findings are consistent with the empirical evidence concerning the impacts of the minimum wage on youth labour market opportunities and also with the theoretical ad empirical evidence regarding the incidence of criminal activity made as an occupational choice decision formulated under risk and uncertainty. However, the results indicate no impact of the minimum wage on the other teenage UCR index crime rates as found by Hashimoto (1987). The evidence also suggests that variations in real criminal justice expenditures per capita reduce teenage propety crime rates over time. Thus, there exists weak empirical evidence suggesting that policymakers should not only concern themselves with the traditionally known impacts of the minimum wage on youth labour market activities but also with the added social costs these impacts have on the incidence of youth criminal behavior. Matters of data exigencies and issues pertaining to the direction of future research are also discussed.

Relative Cohort Size and Youth Crime in the United States, 1953-1984

This paper tests the cohort size hypothesis that crime rates fluctuate according to the relative size of the age (birth) cohort. The hypothesis is tested using arrest statistics of the Uniform Crime Reports for the years 1953-84. Statistics on the Index Crime rate and on the individual index crimes are included in the analysis. The age-period-cohort analysis reveals large age and period effects but small cohort effects. The statistical tests demonstrate that cohort size is not a good predictor of cohort variability. No cohort size effect emerges on the Index Crime Rate or in the individual index crimes. Thus, the data do not support the hypothesis. We suggest possible explanations for these contrary findings and speculate that the cohort size thesis is flawed on theoretical grounds.

Is the Crime Rate Really Falling? An “Aging” U.S. Population and its Impact on the Nation's Crime Rate, 1980-1984

In this article we apply age-standardization methods to the Uniform Crime Reports and the National Crime Survey to determine whether the recent drop in the nation's index crime rate is due to changes in the age structure of the population. The major findings are as follows: little change in person crimes but small declines in robbery and larceny rates, and a large drop in burglary rates. Overall, the age adjustment explains about 40% of the drop in the 1980-1984 crude index rate in both the UCR and the NCS statistics. When examined over a longer period, 1976-1984, the UCR and the NCS show opposite trend patterns. The UCR shows rising rates from 1976-1980, while the NCS shows declining rates. Two other national sources of crime data, the National Youth Survey and the Monitoring the Future Study, also report declining rates of crime/delinquency in the late seventies. Thus all three sources of unofficial crime data document that crime rates are falling but that the downward trend began prior to the 1980-1984 period. At the end of the report, we speculate that this downward trend in crime may be due to age effects not considered in this report and we forecast crime trends in the nation's crime rate to the year 2000. Also included is a brief summary of 1980-1985 crime trends based on preliminary 1985 figures of UCR and NCS. The 1984-1985 UCR figures rose for most crimes, so that the age-adjusted percentage changes from 1980-1985 show an overall small drop in property crimes but a small rise in personl crimes. On the other hand, the 1985 NCS figures continued their downward trend, so that the age-adjusted percentages show a small drop in person crimes and a moderately large drop in property crimes.

Unemployment and Crime Rates in the Post-World War II United States: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

Using annual time-series data for the United States, 1946-1982, two hypotheses are tested: (1) The level of the unemployment rate in any given year will have a negative partial contemporaneous effect on detrendedfluctuations (increases or decreases) in seven Index Crime rates (homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft) in that year. (2) Unemployment-rate fluctuationsfrom one year to the next will have a positive partial effect on detrended crime-rate fluctuations in the next year. These hypotheses are developed from a theoretical model that identifies the former with a criminal opportunity effect, and the latter with a criminal motivation effect, of aggregate unemployment on crime. For burglary, robbery and larceny-theft, empirical support is found for the expected pattern of partial effects. However, the relative sizes of the effects are such that the total impacts of unemployment-through both partial effects-are negative. In addition, only the negative-levels effect is exhibited for homicide and motor vehicle theft, while rape and aggravated assault show no consistent association with either levels orfluctuations in the unemployment rate. Interpretations for these findings are discussed.

Comparing Rectangular Data Matrices

A procedure is discussed for comparing two rectangular n × m data matrices. The two matrices would typically represent data on the same n objects (for example, cities or subjects) and the same m attributes (for example, crime rates or attitudinal variables). An index that measures the degree to which both matrices are similar is presented along with a significance testing strategy that takes into account the possible dependency among the m attributes. To illustrate the strategy, a numerical example is given that compares the seven index crime rates for a set of twenty standard metropolitan statistical areas for the years 1976 and 1977. In addition to giving several possible generalizations of the basic comparison method, including a natural procedure for comparing three or more data matrices, we show in some detail how the matrix comparison strategy encompasses and extends the work of Tjøtheim on measuring association for spatially related variables.

Aggregation Bias in Deterrence Research: an Empirical Analysis

A theoretical treatment is given of the sources of bias that might be expected in deterrence research when estimation is carried out with spatially aggregated data. In addition, aggregation is studied empirically by comparing estimates obtained from city data for the reciprocal effects of arrest clearance rates and index crime rates on one another with those obtained from state data. Some evidence for bias in the state estimates is found.

A Panel Model of Crime Rates and Arrest Rates

In this paper, panel models for crime rates and arrest rates are utilized to separate the effect of law enforcement from several other processes that have been advanced as possible determinants of an enforcement-crime relationship. When models of this type are estimated for official index crime rates in a sample of U.S. cities for the years 1964-1970, no meaningful relationship between arrest rates and crime rates is found. This finding permits us to exclude the existence of any appreciable deterrence effect.