Independent Risk Factor For Distant Metastasis Research Articles

Risk factors, prognostic factors, and nomograms for distant metastasis in patients with diagnosed duodenal cancer: A population-based study.

Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer, and distant metastasis (DM) in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis. Although nomograms have recently been used in tumor areas, no studies have focused on the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in patients with primary duodenal cancer. To develop and evaluate nomograms for predicting the risk of DM and personalized prognosis in patients with duodenal cancer. Data on duodenal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors in duodenal cancer patients with DM. Two novel nomograms were established, and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 2603 patients with duodenal cancer were included, of whom 457 cases (17.56%) had DM at the time of diagnosis. Logistic analysis revealed independent risk factors for DM in duodenal cancer patients, including gender, grade, tumor size, T stage, and N stage (P < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate COX analyses further identified independent prognostic factors for duodenal cancer patients with DM, including age, histological type, T stage, tumor grade, tumor size, bone metastasis, chemotherapy, and surgery (P < 0.05). The accuracy of the nomograms was validated in the training set, validation set, and expanded testing set using ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA curves. The results of Kaplan-Meier survival curves (P < 0.001) indicated that both nomograms accurately predicted the occurrence and prognosis of DM in patients with duodenal cancer. The two nomograms are expected as effective tools for predicting DM risk in duodenal cancer patients and offering personalized prognosis predictions for those with DM, potentially enhancing clinical decision-making.

Comparison of metastasis and prognosis between early-onset and late-onset hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based study

BackgroundWhile hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a highly heterogeneous disease with variable oncogenesis mechanisms and biological features, little is understood about differences in distant metastasis (DM) and prognosis between early-onset and late-onset HCC. This study defined early-onset disease as cancer diagnosed at age younger than 50 years and aimed to present a comprehensive analysis to characterize these disparities based on age. MethodsInformation of HCC patients was retrospectively collected from the SEER database and our hospital. Patient demographics, tumor characteristics, and survival were compared between the two groups. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was adopted to adjust confounding factors. Logistic and cox analysis were utilized to explore risk factors of DM and prognosis, respectively. Besides, the survival differences were assessed by the Kaplan–Meier curve and log-rank test. ResultsIn total, 19187 HCC patients obtained from the SEER database and 129 HCC patients obtained from our own center were enrolled. Among 19187 patients with HCC, 3376 were identified in the matched cohort, including 1688 early-onset patients and 1688 late-onset patients. Compared with late-onset HCC, early-onset HCC was more likely to occur in female (25.2% vs. 22.9%, P = 0.030), have large tumors (>10.0 cm, 24.1% vs. 14.6%, P = 0.000), harbor poorly differentiated/undifferentiated cancers (17.0% vs. 14.0%, P = 0.003), present advanced clinical stage (T3+T4, 33.7% vs. 28.5%; N1, 9.2% vs. 6.7%; P = 0.000), and develop DM (13.0% vs. 9.5%, P = 0.000). After adjustment for confounders by PSM, we discovered that early-onset HCC remained an independent risk factor for DM. However, combined with Kaplan–Meier curve and cox analysis, early-onset HCC was an independent favorable predictor of survival. We validated these data on an independent cohort from our hospital. ConclusionIn this population-based study, despite developing DM more frequently, early-onset HCC exhibited a superior prognosis than late-onset HCC. Nevertheless, further research is warranted to understand the underlying aetiologic basis for the disparities.

High-risk histopathologic features in local advanced conjunctival melanoma.

To identify high-risk histopathologic and molecular features of local recurrence, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis (DM) and disease-specific death (DSD) in conjunctival melanoma (CoM). Ninety patients with pathologically diagnosed CoM between 2008 and 2023 were enrolled. Immunohistochemistry staining of BRAFV600E , NRASQ61R , CD117, PD-1 and PD-L1 was performed in 65 and 45 patients, respectively. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were conducted to identify risk factors for local recurrence, nodal metastasis, DM and DSD. Pathologically, ulceration (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.170; 95% CI: 1.312-7.659; p = 0.01) and regression (HR: 3.196; 95% CI: 1.094-9.335; p = 0.034) were risk factors for DM. Tumour thickness ≥ 4 mm (HR: 4.889; 95% CI: 1.846-12.946; p = 0.001) and regression (HR: 4.011; 95% CI: 1.464-10.991; p = 0.007) were risk factors for DSD. For patients with tumour thickness < 4 mm, the presence of ulceration indicated a higher risk of nodal metastasis (log-rank p = 0.0011), DM (log-rank p = 0.00051) and DSD (log-rank p = 0.02). Patients with regression (+)/tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) (+) had a higher risk for DM (log-rank p = 0.011) and DSD (log-rank p = 0.0032). Molecularly, the positive rate of BRAFV600E , NRASQ61R , CD117, PD-1 and PD-L1 was 40.00% (26/65), 43.08% (28/65), 70.77% (46/65), 46.67% (21/45) and 28.89% (13/45), respectively. Positive BRAFV600E was identified as an independent risk factor for DM (HR: 2.533; 95% CI: 1.046-6.136, p = 0.039). The expression level of BRAFV600E was positively correlated with vascular invasion (p = 0.01), as well as the expression levels of PD-1 (p = 0.038) and PD-L1 (p = 0.049). Tumour thickness ≥ 4 mm, ulceration, the coexistence of regression and TILs, and positive BRAFV600E were risk factors for poor prognosis of CoM patients. Besides, expression level of BRAFV600E was positively correlated with the expression levels of PD-1 and PD-L1.

Risk factors for distant metastasis of Chondrosarcoma in the middle-aged and elderly people.

Chondrosarcoma is the second most common primary bone malignancy with the highest incidence in middle-aged and elderly people, where distant metastasis (DM) still leads to poor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to construct a nomogram for studying the diagnosis of DM in middle-aged and elderly patients with chondrosarcoma. Data on chondrosarcoma patients aged ≥ 40 years diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The data were divided into a training set and an internal validation set according to a 7:3 ratio, and the training set data were screened for independent risk factors for DM in chondrosarcoma patients using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The screened independent risk factors were then used to build a nomogram. In addition, data from 144 patients with chondrosarcoma aged ≥ 40 years diagnosed in a tertiary hospital in China from 2012 to 2021 were collected as the external validation set. The results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set. A total of 1462 middle-aged and elderly patients with chondrosarcoma were included, and 92 (6.29%) had DM at the time of diagnosis. Independent risk factors for DM in middle-aged and elderly patients with chondrosarcoma included being married (OR: 2.119, 95% CI: 1.094-4.105), histological type of dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma (OR: 1.290, 95% CI: 1.110-1.499), high-grade tumor (OR: 1.511, 95% CI: 1.079-2.115), T3 stage (OR: 4.184, 95% CI: 1.977- 8.858), and N1 staging (OR: 5.666, 95% CI: 1.964-16.342). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.857, 0.820, and 0.859 in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set, respectively. The results of the calibration curve and decision curve analysis also confirmed that the established nomogram could accurately predict DM in middle-aged and elderly patients with chondrosarcoma. Married, histological type of dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma, high-grade tumor, T3 stage, and N1 stage are independent risk factors for DM in middle-aged and elderly chondrosarcoma patients, and clinicians should see more attention.

Risk factors for distant metastasis of chondrosarcoma: A population-based study.

Chondrosarcoma is the second largest bone malignancy after osteosarcoma and mainly affects middle-aged adults, where patients with distant metastasis (DM) often have a poor prognosis. Although nomograms have been widely used to predict distant tumor metastases, there is a lack of large-scale data studies for the diagnostic evaluation of DM in chondrosarcoma. Data on patients diagnosed with chondrosarcoma from 2004 to 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Independent risk factors for having DM from chondrosarcoma were screened using univariate and multivariate logistics regression analysis. A nomogram was created to predict the probability of DM from the screened independent risk factors. The nomogram was then validated using receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves. A total of 1870 chondrosarcoma patients were included in the study after data screening, of which 157 patients (8.40%) had DM at the time of diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis screened four independent risk factors, including grade, tumor number, T stage, and N stage. receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves showed good accuracy of the nomogram in both training and validation sets. The current study screened for independent risk factors for DM from chondrosarcoma, which will help clinicians evaluate patients.

Predicting Distant Metastasis in Young-Onset Colorectal Cancer After Surgery: A Retrospective Study.

BackgroundAlthough overall colorectal cancer (CRC) cases have been declining worldwide, there has been an increase in the incidence of the CRC among individuals younger than 50 years old, which is associated with distant metastasis (DM) and poor prognosis.MethodsYoung-onset CRC patients’ postoperative data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between January 2010 and December 2015. Data from the SEER database were divided into early stage and advanced stage according to whether chemoradiotherapy was recommended in the guidelines. Independent risk factors for DM were explored by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression separately. A predictive model was established and presented as nomogram in the training set of advanced stage. The model was internally verified in testing set and externally validated in a cohort of 145 patients from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. The accuracy, reliability, and clinical application value were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. Different risk subgroups of DM were classified according to the scores of the nomogram in the training set of advanced stage.ResultsA total of 5,584 patients were eligible and enrolled in our study in which 1,277 were in early stage and 4,307 in advanced stage. Preoperative CEA positive was found to be an independent predictor of DM in early stage. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that tumor size, degree of differentiation, T stage, N stage, preoperative CEA, and whether radiation or chemotherapy performed were independent risk factors for DM (all, p < 0.05) in advanced stage. Great accuracies were achieved in our nomogram with AUC of 0.801 in training set, 0.811 in testing set, and 0.791 in the validation cohort, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA in internal validation and external validation both showed good stability and clinical utility values.ConclusionsPreoperative CEA positive was a significant predictor of DM for young-onset CRC patients. A novel nomogram containing clinical and pathological features was established for predicting DM of advanced CRC in patients younger than 50 years old. This tool may serve as an early alert for clinicians to DM and make better clinical treatment regimens.

Risk Factors, Prognostic Factors, and Nomograms for Distant Metastasis in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Osteosarcoma: A Population-Based Study.

BackgroundOsteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, mainly occurring in children and adolescents, among which distant metastasis (DM) still leads to a poor prognosis. Although nomogram has recently been used in tumor areas, there are no studies focused on diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in primary osteosarcoma patients.MethodsThe data of osteosarcoma patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in osteosarcoma patients, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors of osteosarcoma patients with DM. We then established two novel nomograms and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultA total of 1,657 patients with osteosarcoma were included, and 267 patients (16.11%) had DM at the time of diagnosis. The independent risk factors for DM in patients with osteosarcoma include age, grade, T stage, and N stage. The independent prognostic factors for osteosarcoma patients with DM are age, chemotherapy and surgery. The results of ROC curves, calibration, DCA, and Kaplan–Meier (K-M) survival curves in the training, validation, and expanded testing sets, confirmed that two nomograms can precisely predict occurrence and prognosis of DM in osteosarcoma patients.ConclusionTwo nomograms are expected to be effective tools for predicting the risk of DM for osteosarcoma patients and personalized prognosis prediction for patients with DM, which may benefit clinical decision-making.

Nomogram for the prediction of primary distant metastasis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma to guide individualized application of FDG PET/CT.

This study aimed to establish an effective nomogram to predict primary distant metastasis (DM) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) to guide the application of PET/CT. In total, 3591 patients with pathologically confirmed NPC were consecutively enrolled. The nomogram was constructed based on 1922 patients treated between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistical regression was applied to identify the independent risk factors of DM. The predictive value of the nomogram was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, probability density functions (PDFs), and clinical utility curve (CUC). The results were validated in 1669 patients enrolled from 2015 to 2016. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) was applied to compare performances of the nomogram with other clinical factors. The best cut-off value of the nomogram chosen for clinical application was analyzed. A total of 355 patients showed primary DM among 3591 patients, yielding an incidence rate of 9.9%. Sex, N stage, EBV DNA level, lactate dehydrogenase level, and hemoglobin level were independent predictive factors for primary DM. C-indices in the training and validation cohort were 0.796 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83) and 0.779 (95% CI, 0.74-0.81), respectively. The NRI indices demonstrated that this model had better predictive performance than plasma EBV DNA level and N stage. We advocate for a threshold probability of 3.5% for guiding the application of PET/CT depending on the clinical utility analyses. This nomogram is a useful tool to predict primary DM of NPC and guide the clinical application of PET/CT individually at the initial staging.

Innovative analysis of distant metastasis in differentiated thyroid cancer.

Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most common thyroid cancer with a relatively high survival rate. The association between certain risk factors of distant metastasis (DM) remains uncertain. In order to assess the prognosis of patients with DTC better, the present study aimed to investigate the synergistic effects between histologic subtype, tumor size, lymph node metastasis (LNM) status and extrathyroidal extension (ETE) on the incidence of DM in DTC. Data of 96,788 patients with DTC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. The association between clinicopathological factors and DM was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. The synergistic effects of relevant factors were determined by measuring the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) and synergy index (SI). The results demonstrated that tumor size, LNM status, histologic subtype and ETE were independent risk factors for DM [odds ratio (OR)=2.433; P<0.001; OR=3.998; P<0.001; OR=6.266; P<0.001; and OR=3.873; P<0.001, respectively]. In addition, a significant additive synergistic effect on DM was identified between ETE and histologic subtype, ETE and LNM status, as well as between ETE and tumor size (RERI=34.097; AP=0.706; SI=3.585; RERI=6.425; AP=0.410; SI=1.781; and RERI=76.973; AP=0.864; SI=7.930, respectively). Therefore, the results of this study revealed that ETE with follicular thyroid histology, N1 stage or large tumor size may have a synergistic effect on the risk of DM in patients with DTC. These results suggested that individualized treatment may benefit patients with DTC, and when ETE coexists with one of the identified risk factors, radical treatments may be required.

Clinical-pathological and sociodemographic factors associated with the distant metastasis and overall survival of oral cavity and oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma.

Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of clinical-pathological and sociodemographic factors on the prevalence of distant metastasis (DM) and overall survival in patients with oral cavity and oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OOSCC). Material and Methods Cross-sectional study based on the records of 404 OOSCC patients evaluated for DM, covering the period 2000-2014. We analysed the influence of age, sex, level of schooling, primary tumor subsite, treatment, marital status, family history of cancer, history of smoking and alcohol consumption, type of health care coverage (private vs. public) and overall survival. Findings were submitted to Fisher’s exact test, Pearson’s chi-squared test, Mantel-Cox log-rank testing and multinomial and Cox regression analysis (SPSS v. 20.0; p<0.05). Results The prevalence of DM was 5.4% (22/404). The respiratory tract was the most affected DM site (n=9; 40.9%). Male sex (p=0.049), oropharyngeal primary tumor (p=0.008), stage T3-4 (p=0.022), lymph node metastasis (N+) (p<0.001) and palliative treatment (p=0.005) were directly associated with DM. Patients with oral primary tumours (p=0.343) and primary oropharyngeal tumours (p=0.242) did not differ significantly with regard to the prevalence of DM. N+ was an independent risk factor for DM (p=0.017). Five variables independently reduced overall survival: male sex (p=0.035), age >65 years (p=0.046), indigenous/brown racial type (p=0.045), palliative treatment (p=0.035) and DM (p=0.048). Conclusions Lymph node metastasis independently increased the prevalence of DM and, along with male sex, older age, brown racial type and palliative treatment, was independently associated with poor prognosis in patients with OOSCC. Key words:Neoplasm metastasis, mouth neoplasms, prognosis, carcinoma, squamous cell.

Risk factors and prognosis for salivary gland adenoid cystic carcinoma in southern china: A 25-year retrospective study.

Adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is characterized by slow growth, frequent local recurrences, and high incidence of distant metastasis (DM). The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive factors for local-regional (LR) recurrence, DM, and survival in ACC.A retrospective review of the medical records for patients with salivary glands ACC from 1990 to 2015 was performed. The clinical parameters were assessed to identify correlations with the development of LR recurrence, DM, and survival of these patients.Among 228 patients who underwent surgery as definitive treatment, 210 (92.1%) were followed up in the study. DM was detected in 64 (30.5%) patients, LR recurrence was detected in 58 (27.6%) patients. The estimated 5, 10, and 15-year overall survival rates were 84.7%, 70.8%, and 34.0%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of lymphovascular invasion and a high T classification were very strong adverse factors, which independently influenced LR recurrence, DM, and survival of ACC patients. Positive/close margin and N+ status were independent risk factors for DM and LR recurrence, respectively. Survival of ACC patents was also affected by tumor location.Presence of lymphovascular invasion and a high T classification were very strong adverse factors and independent predictors for ACC patients’ prognosis, which influenced LR control, DM control, and survival.

Risk factors and prediction-score model for distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy.

The objective of this study is to identify the risk factors and construct a prediction-score model for distant metastasis (DM) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). A total of 520 nonmetastatic NPC patients were analysed retrospectively. The independent risk factors for DM were tested by multivariate Cox regression analysis. The prediction-score model was established according to the regression coefficient. The median follow-up was 88.4 months. The 5-year DM rate was 15.1%. N2-3, primary tumour volume of nasopharynx (GTVnx) >24.56 cm(3), haemoglobin change after treatment (ΔHGB) >25.8 g/L, albumin-globulin ratio (AGR) ≤1.34, pretreatment neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >2.81 and pretreatment serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >245 U/L were significantly adverse independent predictive factors for DM. Three subgroups were defined based on the prediction-score model: low risk (0-2), intermediate risk (3-4) and high risk (5-8). The 5-year DM rates were 4.6, 21.8 and 50.8%, respectively (P < 0.001). The areas under the curve for DM in the prediction-score model and the UICC/AJCC staging system seventh edition were 0.748 and 0.627, respectively (P < 0.001). The scoring model is useful in evaluating the risk of DM in IMRT-treated NPC patients and guiding future therapeutic trials. Further prospective study is needed.

Human Papillomavirus‐16 E7 Viral Load Predicts Distant Metastasis in Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Objectives: Human papillomaviruses (HPV) seem to be related to distant metastasis (DM) in advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients. The objective of this study was to investigate whether high-risk HPV viral load may predict DM among patients with OSCC and stratify patients for risk-adapted treatment. Methods: We measured viral load of E7 oncogenes for HPV-16 and HPV-18 by quantitative PCR tests in paraffin-embedded surgical specimens from 312 OSCC of which the HPV genotypes had been determined previously. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors for 5-year DM. Results: Only the HPV-16 E7 viral load was a significant adverse predictor of 5-year DM. By multivariable analysis, high HPV-16 E7 viral load (≥15.0 copies/genome); pathological N2 status (pN2); tumor depth ≥11 mm; extracapsular spread (ECS); and level IV/V metastases were independent risk factors for DM and identified 3 prognostic groups. In the high-risk group (level IV/V metastases or high HPV-16 E7 viral load plus pN2, tumor depth ≥11 mm, or ECS), the 5-year DM rate was 77.5%. In the intermediate-risk group (high HPV-16 E7 viral load, pN2, tumor depth ≥11 mm, or ECS), the 5-year DM rate was 17.8%. Finally, the 5-year DM rate was 1.3% in the low-risk group (no risk factors). Conclusions: Among OSCC patients, a high HPV-16 E7 viral load and the presence of specific pathological risk factor(s) identify a subgroup of patients at high-risk of 5-year DM. These subjects may benefit from a more intensive follow-up program and aggressive therapeutic strategies.

Human papillomavirus 16/18 E7 viral loads predict distant metastasis in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

BackgroundHuman papillomaviruses (HPV) seem to be related to distant metastasis (DM) in advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients. ObjectivesThis study aimed to investigate whether high-risk HPV viral load may predict DM among OSCC patients and stratify patients for risk-adapted treatment. Study designViral loads of E7 oncogenes for HPV 16/18 were measured by quantitative PCR tests in paraffin-embedded lesional specimens from 312 OSCC of which the HPV genotypes had been determined previously. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors for 5-year DM and C statistics were further computed. ResultsBy multivariable analysis, high HPV 16 E7 viral load (≥15.0 copies/genome); high HPV 18 E7 viral load (≥15.0 copies/genome); pathological N2 status (pN2); tumor depth ≥11mm; extracapsular spread (ECS); and level IV/V metastases were independent risk factors for DM. We further identified three prognostic groups. In the high-risk group (level IV/V metastases or high HPV 16/18 E7 viral load plus pN2, tumor depth ≥11mm, or ECS), the 5-year distant metastasis rate was 74%. In the intermediate-risk group (high HPV 16/18 E7 viral load, pN2, tumor depth ≥11mm, or ECS), the 5-year DM rate was 17%. Finally, the 5-year DM rate was 1% in the low-risk group (no risk factors). The value of the C statistics was 0.78. ConclusionsAmong OSCC patients, high HPV 16/18 E7 viral load identifies a small subgroup of patients at high-risk of 5-year DM and suggest the need for more intensive treatments and follow-up strategies.