Independent Prognostic Factor For Cause-specific Survival Research Articles

Development and validation of HPV-associated and HPV-independent penile squamous cell carcinoma prognostic nomogram.

The aim of this study was to introduce HPV-associated and HPV-independent histologic classifications to analyze prognostic factors and develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC). Data of 1502 PSCC patients between 2010 and 2020 were accessed from the SEER database, and the patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. Independent risk factors for PSCC patients prognosis were analyzed by using univariate and multivariate COX proportional hazards regression, and was used for the construction of the nomogram, and the predictive performance of the model was evaluated by C-index, calibration curve and ROC curve. Kaplan-Meier analysis was applied to explore the impact of HPV-related factors on patient survival, while propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) techniques were used to balance other confounding factors like individual clinical and pathological factors, and to evaluate the differences in overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) between subgroups. The results indicated that histologic type, Grade classification, T/M stage, surgical methods and chemotherapy were independent risk factors affecting OS and CSS in PSCC patients. In addition, age and marital status were significantly associated with OS, while lymph node metastasis was an independent prognostic factor for CSS, the validation results of the model showed that the nomogram had a superior predictive performance compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system. In addition, subgroup analyses prior to and after IPTW and PSM adjustments showed that HPV-associated group had better OS and CSS than HPV-independent group. Our study developed and validated a nomogram using a novel histologic classification and achieved satisfactory results, which can better help clinicians to predict the prognosis of penile squamous cell carcinoma patients.

Advantage of log odds of positive lymph nodes in prognostic evaluation of patients with early-onset colon cancer.

Colon cancer (CC) is one of the most common cancers of the digestive tract, the third most common cancer worldwide, and the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths. Previous studies have demonstrated a higher risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in young patients with CC. It might be reasonable to treat patients with early-onset locally advanced CC with extended lymph node dissection. However, few studies have focused on early-onset CC (ECC) patients with LNM. At present, the methods of predicting and evaluating the prognosis of ECC patients with LNM are controversial. To compare the prognostic values of four lymph node staging indices and establish the best nomogram for patients with ECC. From the data of patients with CC obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, data of young patients with ECC (≤ 50 years old) was screened. Patients with unknown data were excluded from the study, while the remaining patients were included. The patients were randomly divided into a training group (train) and a testing group (test) in the ratio of 7:3, while building the model. The model was constructed by the training group and verified by the testing group. Using multiple Cox regression models to compare the prediction efficiency of LNM indicators, nomograms were built based on the best model selected for overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). In the two groups, the performance of the nomogram was evaluated by constructing a calibration plot, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis. Finally, the patients were grouped based on the risk score predicted by the prognosis model, and the survival curve was constructed after comparing the survival status of the high and low-risk groups. Records of 26922 ECC patients were screened from the SEER database. N classification, positive lymph nodes (PLN), lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of PLN (LODDS) were considered to be independent predictors of OS and CSS. In addition, independent risk factors for OS included gender, race, marital status, primary site, histology, grade, T, and M classification, while the independent prognostic factors for CSS included race, marital status, primary site, grade, T, and M classification. The prediction model including LODDS is composed of minimal Akaike information criterion, maximal concordance indexes, and AUCs. Factors including gender, race, marital status, primary site, histology, grade, T, M classification, and LODDS were integrated into the OS nomogram, while race, marital status, primary site, grade, T, M classification, and LODDS were included into the CSS nomogram. The nomogram representing both cohorts had been successfully verified in terms of prediction accuracy and clinical practicability. LODDS is superior to N-stage, PLN, and LNR of ECC. The nomogram containing LODDS might be helpful in tumor evaluation and clinical decision-making, since it provides an appropriate prediction of ECC.

Local surgery improves survival in elderly patients with stage IV breast cancer: a population-based retrospective cohort study

Little is known about the role of local therapy in elderly patients with stage IV breast cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of local therapy including surgery and radiotherapy in this kind of population by using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Eligible patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database. Baseline characteristics, way of local therapy and survival information were collected for survival and analysis of prognostic factors. Cause-specific survival (CSS) curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and compared by the log-rank test. Cox regression and multivariate competing risk analyses were used to analyze prognosis factors. A total of 1,900 patients were enrolled with the median age of 71 (range, 65 to 95) years. The 5-year CSS of patients with surgery was significantly better than that of those who did not (36.5% vs. 22.4%, P<0.001). Moreover, surgery was an independent protective factor for CSS in both multivariate Cox regression analysis [hazard ratio (HR), 0.588; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.485-0.643; P<0.001] and multivariate competing risk analysis [subdistribution HR (SHR), 0.620; 95% CI, 0.535-0.718; P<0.001]. Stratified analysis showed that most subgroup patients could benefit from surgery. The 5-year CSS of patients with radiotherapy was comparable to those without radiotherapy (28.9% vs. 26.5%, P=0.060), and radiotherapy was not an independent prognostic factor for CSS (SHR, 1.005; 95% CI, 0.846-1.202; P=0.954). However, subgroup analysis found that patients with moderate grade in histopathology, luminal A, or triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtype could benefit from radiotherapy (all P<0.05). Elderly patients with stage IV breast cancer can benefit from surgical treatment. This study helps to select the appropriate group for local surgery or radiotherapy according to the personal situation of the elderly to obtain the maximum benefit.

Lumpectomy Combined with Adjuvant Radiotherapy Could Be a Treatment Option for Primary Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Breast.

Background To investigate the outcomes of primary squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) of the breast undergoing radical surgery with or without adjuvant radiotherapy (RT). Materials and Methods A population cohort with histologically diagnosed PSCC of the breast was identified from the SEER database. The Kaplan–Meier method and Cox-regression proportional hazards model was used to assess the impact of surgical types with or without adjuvant RT on the cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). A retrospective analysis of PSCC between Jan 2010 and Dec 2018 from our institute was performed. Results A total of 515 patients with PSCC of the breast were included, 254 patients treated with mastectomy (MAST) alone, 78 with MAST + RT, 87 with lumpectomy (LUMP) alone, and 96 with LUMP + RT. The median follow-up time was 118 months (range: 0–379 months). In the multivariate Cox analyses, LUMP + adjuvant RT was an independent prognostic factor for CSS (p = 0.028) and OS (p = 0.048). Patients treated with LUMP + RT had better survival rates than patients who underwent lumpectomy (CSS, p = 0.034; OS, p = 0.0004), MAST alone (CSS, p = 0.0001; OS, p < 0.0001), and MAST + RT (CSS, p = 0.0001; OS, p = 0.0078), while postmastectomy RT did not significantly improve OS (p = 0.062) and CSS (p = 0.67) when compared to MAST alone. In addition, a total of 28 patients with PSCC of the breast were identified from our institute. All of these patients presented with estrogen receptor-negative type, and three of them had HER-2-positive PSCC; the median tumor size was 3 cm (range: 0.5–15 cm). Eight patients were treated with LUMP + adjuvant RT, thirteen with MAST, and seven with MAST + RT. Until the last follow-up of Sep 2021, 26 patients with PSCC were still alive and free of breast cancer, excepting that one patient treated with MAST and one patient with MAST + RT died from breast cancer. Conclusion PSCC of the breast after radical surgery has a poor prognosis. Adjuvant RT after LUMP significantly improves survival of patients with PSCC of the breast. Further studies are still needed to investigate the role of adjuvant RT in PSCC of the breast after mastectomy.

Utility of a modified age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index in predicting cause-specific survival among patients with gastric cancer

IntroductionThe current study aimed to evaluate the ability of a modified version of the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (mACCI) in predicting cause-specific survival (CSS) among patients with gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy and compared it with the conventional ACCI. Materials and methodsPatients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer from 2007 to 2016 (n = 2885) were included. A mACCI was established by excluding scores for other malignancies, such as other cancers, leukemia, and lymphoma. After determining the optimal cutoff ACCI and mACCI values for CSS, clinicopathological factors and survival outcomes were assessed according to the ACCI and mACCI. ResultsBoth ACCI and mACCI were identified as independent prognostic factors for overall survival (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). However, only mACCI was identified as an independent prognostic factor for CSS (p < 0.001). The present study suggested that mACCI was a better indicator of CSS in patients with gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy than ACCI. ConclusionOur findings showed that the mACCI was a strong predictor of CSS in patients with gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy. We believe that the mACCI will become a novel marker that would guide treatment decisions for patients with gastric cancer suffering from comorbidities.

Prognostic factors and treatment comparison in small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the uterine cervix in the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database.

e18015 Background: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of treatment modality to survival outcome in small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the uterine cervix (SCNEC) using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Methods: We identified patients with SCNEC from the SEER program during 1981 to 2014and analyzed significant factors for cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall (OS) using Kaplan–Meier survival and Cox regression proportional hazard methods. Results: A total of 503 SCNEC patients were identified. The median follow- up time was 31 months. The 5-year cause specific survival and overall survival were 36.6% and 30.6%, respectively. The FIGO stages I to IV distributions were 189(37.6%), 108 (21.4%),95 (18.9%), and 111 patients (22.1%), respectively. Of the patients with known local treatment strategies, 177 patients (45.9%) were treated with radical surgery and 209 (54.1%) patients underwent primary radiotherapy. In multivariate analysis, local treatment strategies were independent prognostic factors for CSS and OS. The 5- year CSS according to radical surgery and primary radiotherapy were 50.0% and 27.9%, respectively (P &lt; 0.001). The 5-year OS in patients received radical surgery and primary radiotherapy were 57.8%, and 29.6%, respectively (P &lt; 0.001). In FIGO stage I SCNEC, patients treated with radical surgery had superior CSS (P = 0.001) and OS (P = 0.003) than those with primary radiotherapy. However, in FIGO stage II and III SCNEC, there are no differences observed in CSS and OS according to different local treatment strategies. The results also observed that the addition of brachytherapy impact OS (P = 0.002) in FIGO stage III SENCE. The 5-year cause specific survival and overall survival of patients with FIGO IV were only 11.7% and 7.1%, respectively. Conclusions: Small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the cervix is a rare disease with aggressive clinical behavior. The results suggested that radical surgery is the optimal local treatment for early-stage SCNEC and combining radiation therapy with brachytherapy should be suitable for patients with advanced stage.

The incidence and survival outcomes of patients with primary cardiac lymphoma: A SEER-based analysis.

This study aimed to evaluate the incidence and prognosis of primary cardiac lymphoma (PCL) by using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. Patients diagnosed with PCL and the disease incidence in the SEER database from 1975 to 2016 were included. Overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to identify associations with outcome measures. The incidence of PCL was 0.011/100 000, and a predominance of elderly and male patients was observed. A total of 144 patients were enrolled. The median age of onset was 68 (9-96) years, including 80 (55.6%) males and 64 (44.4%) females. Multivariate analysis revealed that age and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS (both P < .05). Ann Arbor stage and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for CSS (both P < .05). In terms of treatment modality, chemotherapy combined with surgery was an independent protective factor for OS and CSS (both P < .05). For patients with primary cardiac diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (cardiac DLBCL), multivariate analysis also showed that age, Ann Arbor stage, and chemotherapy were all independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS (all P < .05). Chemotherapy combined with surgery was associated with a significant benefit in terms of OS and CSS (both P < .05). Our study confirmed that older age and advanced Ann Arbor stage were independent risk factors for PCL, and treatment with chemotherapy or cooperation with surgery resulted in better long-term survival.

The effect of lymphadenectomy in advanced ovarian cancer according to residual tumor status: A population-based study

BackgroundWe investigated the effect of lymphadenectomy on the survival outcomes of patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database according to residual disease status. MethodsWe evaluated 3048 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage-IIIC–IV epithelial ovarian cancer. We assessed the effect of lymphadenectomy stratified by residual disease size on cause-specific survival (CSS). ResultsA total of 1904 (62.5%) patients received lymphadenectomy, and 1355 (71.2%) patients had nodal metastases. Lymph-node status had no significant association with residual tumor size in the lymphadenectomy group. In multivariate analysis, lymphadenectomy was associated with a significantly better CSS and was an independent prognostic factor for CSS. Patients with >10 lymph nodes removed had better CSS compared with non-lymphadenectomy and 1–10 lymph nodes removed groups. Lymphadenectomy was associated with a significantly better CSS in patients with no gross residual tumor, but not in patients with residual tumor ≤1 cm or >1 cm. ConclusionsLymphadenectomy is significantly associated with a better survival outcome in patients advanced ovarian cancer, but its positive effect diminishes as residual tumor size increases.

The effect of local treatment modalities in patients with early-stage adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix: A population-based analysis

BackgroundTo determine the optimal local treatment modalities in stage IB-IIA adenocarcinoma (AC) of the uterine cervix and assess the impact of tumor size in the clinical outcomes. MethodsPatients with a primary diagnosis of stage IB-IIA cervical AC between 1988 and 2013 were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Cox regression analyses was performed to analyze the effect of local treatment modalities on cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). ResultsA total of 2773 patients were identified. Of these, 1816, 795, and 162 patients received primary surgery, surgery and radiotherapy (RT), and primary RT, respectively. Local treatment modality was the independent prognostic factor for CSS and OS. Patients who received primary surgery had better CSS and OS, especially in patients with tumor size ≤4 cm. However, of those with tumor size >4 cm, patients who underwent primary surgery showed significantly better survival; the survival of patients who underwent surgery and RT was not significantly different from those who underwent primary RT alone. The results were not influenced by the year before (1988–1999) and after (2000–2013) the era of concurrent chemoradiation therapy. ConclusionsSurgery remains the optimal local treatment modality in patients with early stage cervical AC.

Adjuvant radiation therapy and survival for adenoid cystic carcinoma of the breast

PurposeThe assess the clinical value of different types of surgical procedures and further analyze the effect of adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) for adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) of the breast. MethodsPatients with ACC of the breast were identified using a population-based national registration database (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results, SEER). The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models were performed to determine the impact of the surgical procedures and adjuvant RT associated with cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). ResultsA total of 478 patients with ACC of the breast were identified. The median follow-up was 59 months. The 10-year CSS and OS were 87.5% and 75.3%, respectively. For the Kaplan-Meier analysis, the 5-year CSS were 96.1%, 91.8%, 90.2%, and 94.1% in patients that received lumpectomy + adjuvant RT, lumpectomy alone, mastectomy alone, and mastectomy + adjuvant RT, respectively (p = 0.026). In the multivariate Cox analyses, lumpectomy + adjuvant RT was an independent prognostic factor for CSS and OS. Patients that received lumpectomy + adjuvant RT had better survival rates than patients that underwent lumpectomy only (CSS, p = 0.018; OS, p = 0.031) and mastectomy only (CSS, p = 0.010; OS, p = 0.004). ConclusionACC of the breast has an excellent prognosis. Breast-conserving surgery is a reasonable alternative for patients with ACC of the breast, and adjuvant RT after lumpectomy improved survival rates.

The local treatment modalities in FIGO stage I-II small-cell carcinoma of the cervix are determined by disease stage and lymph node status.

The purpose of this study was to identify the optimal local treatment modalities for International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage I‐II small‐cell carcinoma of the cervix (SCCC), including cancer‐directed surgery (CDS) and/or radiotherapy (RT). The Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify SCCC patients from 1988 to 2012, and analyzed using Kaplan–Meier survival and Cox regression proportional hazard methods to determine factors significant for cause‐specific survival (CSS) and overall (OS). A total of 208 patients of SCCC were enrolled. The median follow‐up time was 31 months. Fifty‐eight (27.9%) patients were treated with primary CDS, 88 (42.3%) patients underwent CDS combined with RT, and 62 (29.8%) patients were treated with primary RT. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that local treatment modalities were independent prognostic factors for CSS and OS. Patients who had undergone CDS had better CSS and OS, compared with patients who had been treated with combined CDS and RT or RT alone. The 5‐year CSS and OS of entire group was 49.8% and 46.4%, respectively. The 5‐year CSS in the groups of patients receiving CDS, CDS combined with RT, and RT alone were 67.9%, 49.7%, and 32.6%, respectively (P < 0.001). The 5‐year OS in patients treated with CDS, CDS combined with RT, and RT alone were 64.9%, 46.2%, and 28.8% (P < 0.001). Primary surgery was associated with improved CSS and OS for FIGO stage I and lymph node negative disease. Primary surgery is the most effective local treatment for FIGO stage I‐II SCCC, as adjuvant RT or radical RT does not improve survival compared to radical surgery, especially in patients with FIGO stage I and lymph node negative disease.

Prognostic value of lymph node ratio in patients with small-cell carcinoma of the cervix based on data from a large national registry

ObjectiveTo investigate the prognostic value of the lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with small-cell carcinoma of the cervix (SCCC) after cancer-directed surgery using a population-based national registry (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results [SEER]).MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the data of SCCC patients in the SEER database from 1980 to 2012. The prognostic impact of LNR with respect to cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) was analyzed.ResultsA total of 118 patients with SCCC were identified. The median follow-up was 30.5 months. All these patients were treated with cancer-directed surgery and lymphadenectomy. Sixty (50.8%) patients had nodal metastases. The median LNR was 0.16 in patients with positive lymph nodes. Univariate analysis showed that prognostic factors such as International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, nodal status, LNR, and local treatment modalities affected CSS and OS (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that LNR was an independent prognostic factor for CSS and OS. Patients with a higher LNR had worse CSS (hazard ratio [HR]: 8.832; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.762–20.738; P<0.001) and OS (HR: 8.462; 95% CI: 3.613–19.821; P<0.001). LNR was associated with CSS and OS by stage, especially in FIGO stage I–II patients.ConclusionLNR is an independent prognostic factor in SCCC patients and it may help to individualize adjuvant therapy.

上咽頭癌の治療成績および予後因子の統計学的検討

In order to assess the clinical outcome and prognostic factors of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who were initially treated in the Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine between 1997 and 2006, statistical analyses were performed based on the patient medical records. Cause-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in all cases (stage I to IV, n = 32) and advanced cases (stage III and IV, n = 22) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The independent prognostic values of the clinical and therapeutic factors were determined using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. The 5-year CSS/DFS were 43.4%/34.8% in all cases and 34.5%/29.8% in advanced cases. Multivariate analysis revealed that, in all cases, the independent prognostic factors for CSS were age (> or = 61 vs. < or = 60, risk ratio (RR) = 5.717, p = 0.006), T-stage (3/4 vs. 1/2, RR = 6.957, p = 0.004), and the use of platinum agents (unused vs. used, RR = 3.911, p = 0.012), whereas those for DFS were T-stage (3/4 vs. 1/2, RR = 3.499, p = 0.019) and the use of platinum agents (unused vs. used, RR = 2.947, p = 0.028). In advanced cases, the use of platinum agents alone was significant for both CSS (RR = 4.503, p = 0.023) and DFS (RR = 4.218, p = 0.014). The patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) showed better CSS and DFS than the patients who did not (p = 0.066 and p = 0.025, respectively) in a univariate analysis (Log-rank test), although no significant difference was seen between these groups in the multivariate analysis. The advantage of the administration of platinum agents in the treatment of NPC was statistically corroborated even in our study with its small sample size. As agents combined with chemoradiotherapy, the efficacy of docetaxel alone did not seem comparable to that of platinum agents. The docetaxel-CDDP-5-FU regimen applied as NAC was suggested to be possibly beneficial for advanced cases of NPC.

Treatment results and prognostic factors in 101 men treated for squamous carcinoma of the penis

This retrospective study was performed to assess the treatment outcome and prognostic factors in 101 men with invasive squamous carcinoma of the penis treated at the Royal Marsden Hospital between 1960-1990. The tumor was confined to the glans penis (T1) in 79 patients, 82 were node negative (N0), and two patients had distant metastases at presentation. The histology was Grade 1 (G1) in 36, Grade 2 (G2) in 18, Grade 3 (G3) in 28, and unknown in 19 patients. Node-positive disease was commoner in patients with G3 (p = 0.02) or T2/3/4 tumors (p = 0.007). Treatment for the primary tumor was external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) in 59, interstitial brachytherapy in 13, and partial or total penectomy in 29 patients. The median dose, dose/fraction, and treatment time for EBRT was 60 Gy, 2 Gy/fraction, and 46 days, respectively. Eighty patients received no inguinal node treatment, 13 had EBRT (4 with chemotherapy), and 8 underwent groin dissection at presentation. During a median follow-up of 5.2 years (2 months-22 years), 56 patients died (penile cancer 31, intercurrent illness 23 and unknown cause 2), giving 10 year overall and cause-specific survival (CSS) of 39 and 57%, respectively. Adverse prognostic factors for CSS on univariate analysis were G3, ulcerative/fungating or T2/3/ 4 tumors, node positive, Jackson's Stage 2/3/4, and surgical treatment for the primary. All but the last two were significant independent prognostic factors for CSS on multivariate analysis. Penile or perineal recurrence or residual disease after initial treatment was seen in 36 out of 98 evaluable patients, giving a 10-year local failure rate (LFR) of 45%. Local failure after initial treatment was successfully salvaged in the majority (26 out of 36) of patients with further surgery or radiotherapy, and local control was achieved ultimately in 74 out of 77 T1, 7 out of 12 T2; 3 out of 3 T3, and 3 out of 5 T4 tumors. In the 44 evaluable patients with T1 tumors treated by EBRT the only adverse RT parameter approaching prognostic significance (p = 0.052) was a BED value corrected for recovery of <60 Gy (alpha/beta 10, K = 0.5 Gy/day, mean = 21 days). Invasive squamous carcinomas of the penis carry a significant risk of loco-regional recurrence after initial radiotherapy and this can be successfully salvaged in most patients with further treatment. This mandates close follow-up to detect loco regional recurrence early.