Independent Predictor Of Incident Hypertension Research Articles

Socioeconomic disparities and risk of hypertension among older Americans: the Health and Retirement Study.

Reducing hypertension represents a critical point of intervention to lower the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Although the relationship between lower socioeconomic status and higher rates of hypertension is well documented, most of the evidence comes from prevalence studies involving young adult population. To investigate the independent association of wealth, education and income with incident hypertension among older adults living in the United States. This cohort study included 16 587 individuals aged 50 years and older, free of hypertension and cardiovascular disease at baseline from the Health and Retirement Study over the period 1992-2014. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine longitudinal associations between wealth, education, and income at baseline and self-reported diagnosis of incident hypertension. During a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 6817 participants declared an occurrence of hypertension (incidence rate: 45.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 44.2-46.4] per 1000 person-years). Overall, those in low as compared with high socioeconomic status groups had a higher risk of developing hypertension in late life. In particular, adjusted hazard ratios [95% CI] across decreasing wealth quartiles were 1.0 (reference), 0.97 [0.88-1.08], 1.17 [1.05-1.30], and 1.20 [1.07-1.35] in men, and 1.0 (reference), 1.28 [1.17-1.41], 1.21 [1.09-1.33], and 1.28 [1.16-1.42] in women. In multivariate analyses, wealth remained strongly associated with incident hypertension among women after accounting for other socioeconomic, behavioral and anthropometric risk factors. Socioeconomic status, especially wealth, is a strong independent predictor of incident hypertension in older adults. Our findings support population-based interventions tailored to those in disadvantaged socioeconomic groups to reduce the risk of hypertension.

Elastic tissue disruption is a major pathogenic factor to human vascular disease.

Elastic fibers are essential components of the arterial extracellular matrix. They consist of the protein elastin and an array of microfibrils that support the protein and connect it to the surrounding matrix. The elastin gene encodes tropoelastin, a protein that requires extensive cross-linking to become elastin. Tropoelastin is expressed throughout human life, but its expression levels decrease with age, suggesting that the potential to synthesize elastin persists during lifetime although declines with aging. The initial abnormality documented in human atherosclerosis is fragmentation and loss of the elastic network in the medial layer of the arterial wall, suggesting an imbalance between elastic fiber injury and restoration. Damaged elastic structures are not adequately repaired by synthesis of new elastic elements. Progressive collagen accumulation follows medial elastic fiber disruption and fibrous plaques are formed, but advanced atherosclerosis lesions do not develop in the absence of prior elastic injury. Aging is associated with arterial extracellular matrix anomalies that evoke those present in early atherosclerosis. The reduction of elastic fibers with subsequent collagen accumulation leads to arterial stiffening and intima-media thickening, which are independent predictors of incident hypertension in prospective community-based studies. Arterial stiffening precedes the development of hypertension. The fundamental role of the vascular elastic network to arterial structure and function is emphasized by congenital disorders caused by mutations that disrupt normal elastic fiber production. Molecular changes in the genes coding tropoelastin, lysyl oxidase (tropoelastin cross-linking), and elastin-associated microfibrils, including fibrillin-1, fibulin-4, and fibulin-5 produce severe vascular injury due to absence of functional elastin.

Systemic vascular resistance predicts the development of hypertension: the cardiovascular risk in young Finns study

Purpose To study whether systemic hemodynamics, especially systemic vascular resistance, predicts the development of hypertension and improves the risk prediction of incident hypertension beyond common risk factors in the risk models in young adults. Materials and methods Typical risk factors for hypertension in the risk prediction models (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, parental history of hypertension, age, sex, body-mass index, smoking), laboratory values (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, insulin, C-reactive protein), heart rate (HR), stroke index (SI), and systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI) calculated by whole-body impedance cardiography were evaluated in 2007 and blood pressure in 2011 in 1293 Finnish adults (aged 30–45 years; females 56%; n = 1058 normotensive in 2007). Results Of hemodynamic variables, SVRI and HR evaluated in 2007 were independently associated with systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001 and p = 0.047, respectively) and SVRI with diastolic blood pressure measured in 2011 (p = 0.014), and SVRI and HR were independent predictors of incident hypertension (p < 0.001 and p = 0.024, respectively). SVRI was the most significant predictor of incident hypertension independently of other risk factors (odds ratio 2.73 per 1 standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval 1.93–3.94, p < 0.001). The extended prediction model (including SVRI) improved the incident hypertension risk prediction beyond other risk factors, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.846 versus 0.817 (p = 0.042) and a continuous net reclassification improvement of 0.734 (p < 0.001). Conclusions These findings suggest that systemic vascular resistance index predicts the incidence of hypertension in young adults and that the evaluation of systemic hemodynamics could provide an additional tool for hypertension risk prediction.

Relationship Between Brachial-Ankle Pulse Wave Velocity and Incident Hypertension According to 2017 ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guidelines.

BackgroundArterial stiffness predicts both cardiovascular events and incident hypertension. However, whether brachial‐ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is predictive of incident hypertension based on the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) High Blood Pressure Guidelines has not been established. We performed a large cohort study to investigate whether incident hypertension could be predicted from baPWV measurements as a measure of arterial stiffness, even when applying updated hypertension criteria.Methods and ResultsA total of 10 360 Korean adults who underwent baPWV examination during a health‐screening program between 2010 and 2016 were enrolled. Hypertension was defined according to the 2017 ACC/AHA Guidelines as 130/80 mm Hg. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to assess the risk of incident hypertension according to baPWV quartiles. The mean age of the study subjects was 40.2 years and 75.6% were men. During the follow‐up period (median 2.17 years), 2000 subjects (19.3%) developed hypertension. The subjects in the highest baPWV quartile group showed an increased risk of hypertension compared with the lowest baPWV quartile group as confirmed by multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of 1.64 (95% CI 1.41–1.89; P<0.001) in men and 12.36 (95% CI 4.41–34.62; P=0.005) in women. The increased risk of developing hypertension was consistent after adjusting for several confounding factors.ConclusionsArterial stiffness measured by baPWV is associated with incident hypertension according to the updated 2017 ACC/AHA Guidelines and is a useful independent predictor of incident hypertension among relatively healthy people.

Higher High Density Lipoprotein 2 (HDL2) to Total HDL Cholesterol Ratio Is Associated with a Lower Risk for Incident Hypertension.

BackgroundRecent studies have suggested that high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol is inversely associated with the development of hypertension. We aimed to determine the association between different HDL cholesterol subclasses and risk of future hypertension.MethodsA total of 270 Japanese Americans (130 men, 140 women) without hypertension between the ages of 34 to 75 years were enrolled. Blood pressure was measured with a mercury sphygmomanometer, and average blood pressure was calculated. Incident hypertension was determined 5 to 6 and 10 to 11 years after enrollment. HDL2, HDL3, and total HDL cholesterol were measured at baseline.ResultsDuring 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of hypertension was 28.1% (76/270). In univariate analysis, age, diabetes, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, insulin resistance index, total and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and visceral adipose tissue were significant predictors for incident hypertension. Among the HDL cholesterol subclass, HDL2 cholesterol was inversely associated with hypertension incidence, but both total and HDL3 cholesterol were not. In addition, HDL2/HDL cholesterol was inversely associated with future hypertension risk. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26 to 2.31; P=0.001), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.31 to 2.56; P<0.001), and HDL2/HDL cholesterol (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.98; P=0.035), were associated with future development of hypertension.ConclusionA higher proportion of HDL2 cholesterol among total HDL cholesterol predicted a lower risk for incident hypertension. However, concentrations of total HDL, HDL2, and HDL3 cholesterol were not independent predictors of incident hypertension.

Blood pressure and mortality in a prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

The objective of this study was to determine how baseline blood pressure and incident hypertension related to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, HIV-related inflammation and mortality in HIV-infected adults in a low-income country. We conducted long-term follow-up of HIV-infected adults who had participated in a trial of early vs. delayed initiation of ART in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Between 2005 and 2008, 816 HIV-infected adults were randomized to early (N = 408) vs. delayed ART (when CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl or AIDS-defining condition; N = 408). Blood pressure was measured every 3 months. Hypertension was diagnosed according to the Joint National Committee (JNC-7) guidelines. Biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation were measured from banked enrolment plasma samples. Survival analyses were performed using Stata 14. The median age at enrolment was 39 years. The median follow-up time was 7.3 years. The hypertension incidence rate was 3.41 per 100 person-years, and was similar in early and delayed ART groups. In multivariable models, independent predictors of incident hypertension were older age, higher BMI and plasma interleukin (IL)-6 levels (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 1.23, P < 0.001). Systolic pressure more than 140 mmHg at enrolment was associated with increased mortality (aHR = 2.47, P = 0.03) as was systolic pressure less than 90 mmHg (aHR = 2.25, P = 0.04). Prevalent and incident hypertension were also significantly associated with mortality. In a large prospective study of HIV-infected adults, we found a high incidence of hypertension associated with HIV-related inflammation. Baseline hypertension conferred a more than two-fold increased risk of death. Among HIV-infected adults in low-income countries, hypertension should be considered a serious threat to long-term survival.

Pulse Wave Velocity Predicts the Progression of Blood Pressure and Development of Hypertension in Young Adults.

The aim of the present study was to examine whether pulse wave velocity (PWV) predicts the progression of blood pressure and the development of hypertension in young adults. In addition, we studied whether PWV improves the risk prediction of incident hypertension beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured in 2007 and 2011 for 1449 Finnish adults (aged 30-45 years). In addition, PWV and other cardiovascular risk factors were measured in 2007. The association between PWV (in 2007) and blood pressure (in 2011) was studied in the whole population (n=1449) and in a normotensive subpopulation (n=1183). The ability of PWV measured in 2007 to predict incident hypertension in 2011 was investigated in the subpopulation (n=1183). PWV measured in 2007 was directly and independently associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressures measured in 2011 (P<0.001 for both). PWV measured in 2007 was also an independent predictor of incident hypertension in 2011 (odds ratio, 1.96 per 1-SDincrease; 95% confidence interval, 1.51-2.57; P<0.001). The extended prediction model (including PWV) improved the incident hypertension risk prediction beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve being 0.833 versus 0.809 (P=0.040), and the continuous net reclassification improvement 59.4% (P<0.001). These findings suggest that PWV predicts the progression of blood pressure and could provide a valuable tool in hypertension risk prediction in young adults.

Arterial Stiffness as a Predictor of Clinical Hypertension.

The association between vascular stiffening and blood pressure is likely bidirectional. The present study was designed to examine temporal relationships among vascular stiffness, blood pressure progression, and hypertension. The Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities Community study is a community-based, prospective, long-term follow-up observational study. The present investigation is based on the baseline examinations (2010-2011) and the first follow-up measurements (2012-2013) included in the study. A total of 4025 participants were followed for an average of 27 months. Of 2153 participants free of hypertension at the baseline examination, 432 (20.07%) had incident hypertension. The authors observed that brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was an independent predictor of incident hypertension. baPWV during baseline examination was positively associated with higher systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, and mean arterial pressure during the first follow-up examination. baPWV but not blood pressure during baseline examination was associated with baPWV during the first follow-up examination. This study not only provides evidence that baPWV is an independent predictor of blood pressure progression and incident hypertension, but also provides evidence that blood pressure is not associated with baPWV after adjusting for baseline baPWV.

Development of a risk prediction model for incident hypertension in a working-age Japanese male population.

The aim of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for incident hypertension in a Japanese male population. Study participants included 15,025 nonhypertensive Japanese male workers (mean age, 38.8±8.9 years) who underwent an annual medical checkup at a company. The participants were followed-up for a median of 4.0 years to determine new-onset hypertension, defined as a systolic blood pressure (BP) ⩾140 mm Hg, a diastolic BP ⩾90 mm Hg, or the initiation of antihypertensive medication. Participants were divided into the following two cohorts for subsequent analyses: the derivation cohort (n=12,020, 80% of the study population) and the validation cohort (n=3005, the remaining 20% of the study population). In the derivation cohort, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that age, body mass index, systolic and diastolic BP, current smoking status, excessive alcohol intake and parental history of hypertension were independent predictors of incident hypertension. Using these variables, a risk prediction model was constructed to estimate the 4-year risk of incident hypertension. In the validation cohort, the risk prediction model demonstrated high discrimination ability and acceptable calibration, with a C-statistic of 0.861 (95% confidence interval 0.844, 0.877) and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic of 15.2 (P=0.085). A risk score sheet was constructed to enable the simple calculation of the approximate 4-year probability of incident hypertension. In conclusion, a practical risk prediction model for incident hypertension was successfully developed in a working-age Japanese male population.

Urinary albumin excretion, blood pressure changes and hypertension incidence in the community: effect modification by kidney function

Both increased albuminuria and reduced kidney function may predict blood pressure (BP) progression in the community, while they exacerbate each other's effects. We investigated associations and interactions between these two risk factors, BP changes and hypertension incidence in community-dwelling elderly men. Observational study from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, which included 1051 men (all aged 71 years) with assessments on urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER), 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) and cystatin-C estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Of these, 574 men attended re-examination after 6 years, and ABPM measurements were again recorded to assess blood pressure changes and hypertension incidence. UAER was found to be associated with ABPM measurements both at baseline and longitudinally. In longitudinal analysis, there were significant interactions between UAER and kidney function in its association with the changes of systolic BP, mean arterial pressure and pulse pressure. After stratification for renal function state, UAER independently predicted BP changes only in those who had eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). At re-examination, 71 new cases of hypertension were recorded. In multivariable logistic models, similar interactions were observed on hypertension incidence: UAER was an independent predictor of incident hypertension only in those with reduced renal function. These associations were evident also in the subpopulation of non-diabetics and in participants with normal range UAER (<20 µg/min). In community-dwelling elderly men, UAER associates with BP progression and hypertension incidence, even within the normal range. Concurrent reduction of renal function modifies and exacerbates these associations.

Incremental predictive value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein for incident hypertension: the Hypertension-Diabetes Daegu Initiative study

The purpose of this study was to determine the association between serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and incident hypertension. Study subjects were 452 Koreans who were enrolled in a cohort study. Log-transformed hs-CRP (odds ratio, 1.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–3.39; p = 0.035) was an independent predictor of incident hypertension. Inclusion of hs-CRP showed significant increase in the area under the curve from 0.697 to 0.720 (p = 0.042), the net reclassification improvement (0.394, p < 0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0111, p = 0.045). The hs-CRP added incremental value to the combination of systolic blood pressure and conventional risk factors in predicting incident hypertension.

Relationship of Retinal Vessel Caliber to Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in African Americans With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

To examine the relationship between retinal arteriolar and venular diameter and the 6-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality among African Americans with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Included were 468 African Americans with type 1 diabetes mellitus who participated in the New Jersey 725 and who had undergone a 6-year follow-up examination. At both baseline and 6-year follow-up, hypertension and presence of heart disease, stroke, or lower extremity arterial disease (LEAD) were documented and confirmed by review of hospital admission and medical records. Computer-assisted grading from digitized images of retinal photographs was accomplished to determine the average diameter of retinal arterioles (central retinal arteriolar equivalent) and venules (central retinal venular equivalent). Retinal vessel diameter size was examined in relation to the 6-year incidence of hypertension, any cardiovascular disease (heart disease, stroke, or LEAD), heart disease or stroke, LEAD, and mortality. Narrower central retinal arteriolar equivalent at baseline significantly and independently predicted 6-year incidence of any cardiovascular disease and LEAD, whereas larger retinal venular diameter at baseline significantly and independently predicted 6-year incidence of hypertension. Proteinuria and retinopathy severity at baseline were stronger predictors of mortality than retinal vascular diameter. In African Americans with type 1 diabetes mellitus, baseline retinal vessel caliber is an independent predictor of incident hypertension and LEAD.

Triglycerides and triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio are strong predictors of incident hypertension in Middle Eastern women

Dyslipidemia has been reported as a risk factor for incident hypertension in a few prospective studies, however, no study has specifically assessed different lipid measures including the lipid ratios, that is, total cholesterol (TC)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (TGs)/HDL-C as predictors of hypertension among Middle Eastern women with high prevalences of dyslipidemia and hypertension. The study population consisted of 2831 non-hypertensive women, aged ≥ 20 years. We measured lipoproteins, and calculated non-HDL-C and the lipid ratios. The risk-factor-adjusted odds ratios for incident hypertension were calculated for every 1 standard deviation (s.d.) change in TC, log-transformed TG, HDL-C, non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C and log-transformed TG/HDL-C using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Over a mean follow-up of 6.4 years, 397 women developed hypertension. An increase of 1 s.d. in TG, TC/HDL-C and TG/HDL-C increased the risk of incident hypertension by 16, 19 and 18%, respectively, and 1 s.d. increase in HDL-C decreased the risk of hypertension by 14% in the multivariable model (all P ≤ 0.05). In models excluding women with diabetes and central or general obesity, TG, TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C remained as independent predictors of incident hypertension. In conclusion, dyslipidemia, using serum TG and TG/HDL-C, in particular, may be useful in identification of women at risk of hypertension, even in those without diabetes and central or general obesity.

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity is an independent predictor of incident hypertension in Japanese normotensive male subjects

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are closely associated with hypertension, however, predictors of incident hypertension have not been fully established. We have conducted a study aimed at evaluating whether brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is a predictor of incident hypertension. The relation between baPWV, a noninvasive index of aortic stiffness, and incident hypertension was evaluated in a cohort of 2278 Japanese normotensive male subjects with a follow-up of 3 years. Of the 2278 study participants, 151 (6.6%) had incident hypertension during the follow-up. After adjustment for variables, including age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking habit, alcohol consumption, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, family history of hypertension, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and fasting plasma glucose, multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that baPWV was a significant and independent predictor of incident hypertension with an adjusted odds ratio 1.45 (95% confidence interval 1.17-1.79, P < 0.01). In addition, baPWV values >1380 cm/s indicated a high risk for incident hypertension. Among the Japanese normotensive male subjects participating in this study, BaPWV was a significant and independent predictor of incident hypertension. This result suggests that BaPWV could be a useful screening method to identify normotensive individuals who should be targeted for interventions aimed at preventing the incident hypertension.

Risk of Progression to Hypertension in a Rural Chinese Women Population with Prehypertension and Normal Blood Pressure

To determine the incidence of hypertension and its risk factors among rural Chinese women with prehypertension and normotension. A population-based sample of 12,060 rural Chinese women aged > or = 35 years and free from hypertension at baseline were followed from 2004-2006 to 2008. Incident hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) > or = 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) > or = 90 mm Hg, or current use of antihypertensive medication. Over a median follow-up of 28 months (range, 14-47 months), 23.4% of women developed hypertension. The age-adjusted incidence rate was higher in prehypertension than in normotension (11.2/100 person-years vs. 7.9/100 person-years, P < 0.05). Among women with prehypertension, independent predictors of incident hypertension were baseline age, Mongolian ethnicity, low physical activity, baseline body mass index (BMI), baseline salt intake and family history of hypertension. Among women with normal blood pressure (BP), independent predictors were baseline age, low physical activity, baseline BMI and baseline salt intake. The awareness, treatment, and control rates for newly developed hypertension were 33.2, 23.0, and 2.1%, respectively. These data indicate that the incidence of hypertension is high among rural Chinese women and it is associated with many risk factors, and the data also suggest that most newly developed hypertension cases are not treated. This high incidence of hypertension may be related to rapid social changes in our country and may apply to other areas of the developing world. These results call for urgent improvements in hypertension prevention, detection and treatment.

Structural and Functional Vascular Alterations and Incident Hypertension in Normotensive Adults: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Vascular abnormalities may exist before clinical hypertension. Using Poisson regression, the authors studied the association of coronary artery calcium (CAC), common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), aortic distensibility, and large and small arterial elasticity with incident hypertension among 2,512 normotensive US adults free of cardiovascular disease. Incidence rate ratios for incident hypertension (blood pressure > or =140/90 mm Hg or new antihypertensive medication) were calculated. Increased CAC was associated with incident hypertension in demographics-adjusted models (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.75; IRR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.78; and IRR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.25 for CAC scores of 30-99, 100-399, and > or =400, respectively) but was attenuated after further adjustment. Increased common CIMT was associated with incident hypertension (IRR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.28, 2.46 for quintile 4; IRR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.28, 2.53 for quintile 5). Participants with the lowest, compared with the highest, aortic distensibility had an increased risk of hypertension (IRR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.79), as did those with the lowest large arterial elasticity (IRR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.99). Lower small arterial elasticity was incrementally associated with incident hypertension starting at quintile 2 (IRR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.39, 2.91; IRR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.71, 3.57; IRR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.88, 3.95; and IRR = 2.85, 95% CI: 1.95, 4.16). Structural and functional vascular abnormalities are independent predictors of incident hypertension. These findings are important for understanding the pathogenesis of hypertension.

Cardiovascular and Metabolic Predictors of Progression of Prehypertension Into Hypertension

Prehypertension (defined by the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure) frequently evolves to hypertension (HTN) and increases cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether metabolic and/or cardiac characteristics favor development of HTN in prehypertensive subjects. We evaluated baseline anthropometric, laboratory, and echocardiographic characteristics of 625 untreated prehypertensive participants in the Strong Heart Study, without prevalent cardiovascular disease (63% women; 22% with diabetes mellitus; mean age: 59+/-7 years) to identify predictors of the 4-year incidence of HTN. Diabetes mellitus was assessed by American Diabetic Association criteria, and a diabetes-specific definition of HTN was used. Four-year incidence of HTN was 38%. Incident HTN was independently predicted by baseline systolic blood pressure (odds ratio [OR]: 1.60 per 10 mm Hg; 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.00; P<0.0001), waist circumference (OR: 1.10 per 10 cm; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.30; P=0.04), and diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.73; 95% CI=1.77 to 4.21; P<0.0001), with no significant effect for age, sex, hemoglobin A1c, homeostatic model assessment index, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, plasma creatinine, or urine albumin:creatinine ratio. Higher left ventricular mass index (OR: 1.15 per 5 g/m(2.7); 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.25; P=0.03) or stroke volume index (OR: 1.25 per 5 mL/m(2.04); 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.50; P=0.03) was also identified, together with baseline systolic blood pressure and the presence of diabetes mellitus, as an independent predictor of incident HTN, without an additional predictive contribution from other anthropometric, metabolic, or echocardiographic parameters (all P>0.10). Thus, progression to HTN in 38% of Strong Heart Study prehypertensive participants could be predicted by higher left ventricular mass and stroke volume in addition to baseline systolic blood pressure and prevalent diabetes mellitus.

A prospective study of glycemia, body size, insulin resistance and the risk of hypertension in Mauritius

To estimate the associations between new-onset hypertension and glycemia, insulin resistance, and overall and regional adiposity in a prospective study conducted in Mauritius. Three thousand five hundred and eighty-one adults without hypertension, pregnancy, or known diabetes at baseline (1987) were followed for incident hypertension in 1992 and 1998, (systolic blood pressure > or =140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure > or =90 mmHg or antihypertensive medication treatment). Other measurements included fasting plasma glucose and 2-h plasma glucose after a 75-g oral glucose load, fasting insulin, BMI, waist circumference, smoking, alcohol use, exercise, and demographic information. Insulin sensitivity was estimated by the computerized homeostasis model assessment (HOMA2) program. In multivariable logistic models that included age, gender, ethnicity, alcohol use, exercise, education, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment, fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, BMI, and waist circumference, the independent predictors of incident hypertension by time of follow-up were (odds ratio for a 1 SD increase; 95% confidence interval): 1992 - age (1.73; 1.47-2.03), Creole ethnicity (1.42; 1.04-1.94), 2-h plasma glucose (1.26; 1.04-1.51); 1998 - age (1.60; 1.40-1.83) and BMI (1.33; 1.05-1.69). Also, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure significantly predicted hypertension at both time points. Risk factor patterns depended on duration of follow-up. Over 5 years, hypertension was related to 2-h plasma glucose but not to measures of body size or homeostasis model assessment, while over 11 years, incident hypertension was related to BMI but not waist circumference, 2-h plasma glucose, or homeostasis model assessment. These findings support a more important role for 2-h plasma glucose and overall adiposity than waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose, or insulin resistance in the development of hypertension in Mauritius.

Pulse Wave Velocity Is an Independent Predictor of the Longitudinal Increase in Systolic Blood Pressure and of Incident Hypertension in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging

This study sought to evaluate whether pulse wave velocity (PWV), a noninvasive index of arterial stiffness, is a predictor of the longitudinal changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and of incident hypertension. Although arterial stiffness is believed to underlie, in part, the age-associated changes in SBP, particularly at older ages, few longitudinal studies in humans have examined the relationship between arterial stiffness and blood pressure. Pulse wave velocity was measured at baseline in 449 normotensive or untreated hypertensive volunteers (age 53 +/- 17 years). Repeated measurements of blood pressure were performed during an average follow-up of 4.9 +/- 2.5 years. After adjusting for covariates including age, body mass index, and mean arterial pressure, linear mixed effects regression models showed that PWV was an independent determinant of the longitudinal increase in SBP (p = 0.003 for the interaction term with time). In a subset of 306 subjects who were normotensive at baseline, hypertension developed in 105 (34%) during a median follow-up of 4.3 years (range 2 to 12 years). By stepwise Cox proportional hazards models, PWV was an independent predictor of incident hypertension (hazard ratio 1.10 per 1 m/s increase in PWV, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.30, p = 0.03) in individuals with a follow-up duration greater than the median. Pulse wave velocity is an independent predictor of the longitudinal increase in SBP and of incident hypertension. This suggests that PWV could help identify normotensive individuals who should be targeted for the implementation of interventions aimed at preventing or delaying the progression of subclinical arterial stiffening and the onset of hypertension.

Hypoadiponectinemia as a Predictor for the Development of Hypertension

Low circulating levels of adiponectin, an adipokine with insulin-sensitizing, antiatherogenic, and anti-inflammatory properties, are found in hypertensive patients. Adiponectin replenishment ameliorated hypertension in adiponectin-deficient mice or obese, hypertensive mice with hypoadiponectinemia, suggesting an etiologic role of adiponectin in hypertension. We aimed to determine, in this 5-year prospective study, whether hypoadiponectinemia could predict the development of hypertension in a nondiabetic Chinese cohort. A total of 577 subjects (249 men and 328 women) were recruited from the population-based Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study and prospectively followed up for 5 years. The relationship of serum adiponectin with the development of hypertension (sitting blood pressure >or=140/90 mm Hg) was investigated in a nested case-control study consisting of 70 subjects who had developed hypertension on follow-up and 140 age- and sex-matched control subjects who were normotensive both at baseline and at year 5. At baseline, serum adiponectin level in the lowest sex-specific tertile was more likely to be associated with hypertension (P=0.003 versus the highest tertile, after adjusting for age, body mass index, fasting insulin, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein). At year 5, baseline serum adiponectin was a significant independent predictor of incident hypertension in the nested case-control study (P=0.015; age adjusted), together with mean arterial pressure (P<0.001), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P=0.018), and body mass index (P=0.004). Normotensive subjects with baseline serum adiponectin levels in the lowest sex-specific tertile had an increased risk of becoming hypertensive (adjusted odds ratio: 2.76; 95% CIs: 1.06 to 7.16; P=0.037 versus highest tertile). Our data suggest that hypoadiponectinaemia may be involved in the pathogenesis of hypertension in humans.