Independent Predictor Of Long-term Outcomes Research Articles

Impact of Neurological Complications on Long-Term Outcomes in Patients with Infective Endocarditis.

Neurological complications are frequent during the active course of infective endocarditis (IE), and they are associated with high in-hospital mortality rates. However, limited data exist on the prognostic value of these complications for late outcomes. This study aimed to assess the long-term impact of neurological complications in patients surviving an IE episode. A total of 263 consecutive IE patients admitted to a tertiary care center between 2007 and 2022 were prospectively included. Neurological complications at admission included transient ischemic attack (TIA), ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, intracerebral abscess, and meningitis. The primary outcome was a composite of overall mortality or heart valve surgery. Of the patients, 34.2% died in the hospital, leaving 173 survivors for long-term follow-up. Over a median of 3.5 years, 29 patients died, and 13 (9%) underwent cardiac surgery, resulting in an overall adverse event rate of 30%. Neurological complications independently predicted long-term adverse outcomes (hazard ratio (HR) 2.237; 95% CI 1.006-4.976), after adjusting for age, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and heart failure (HF) development. In an IE patient cohort, neurological complications at admission, which is a complication directly related to the IE process, were independent predictors of long-term outcomes.

Retention rate of vagus nerve stimulation for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy: A single-centre, retrospective study.

The aim of this single-centre, retrospective, observational study was to evaluate long-term effectiveness of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) in drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) by using retention rate as a surrogate measure for seizure reduction. We included all patients with DRE, treated at the adult neurology department of the University Hospitals Leuven and who started VNS therapy from January 1, 1994, until May 1, 2021, with follow-up data cutoff on January 1, 2023. Retention rate of VNS was defined as the percentage of patients who maintain VNS at established time points. We estimated cumulative retention rate and battery replacement rate and correlated these with seizure reduction, using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Statistical analysis of potential predictors of VNS outcome (age, sex and epilepsy duration at implantation) was performed using mono- and multivariate analyses. VNS was started in 110 patients with DRE, with a mean follow-up of 8.7 years (SD 6.5). VNS was discontinued in 55 patients (50%), with ineffectiveness as the main reason for discontinuation (98%). The battery was replaced at least once in 42 patients (38%). Estimated retention rates were 70%, 52%, 45% and 33% after 5, 10, 15 and 20 years, respectively. Estimated first battery replacement rates were 16%, 42% and 47% after 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Both estimates showed a statistically significant correlation with seizure reduction. No independent predictors of long-term outcome of VNS were found. This is the first long-term study using retention rate of VNS to assess effectiveness. VNS is a well-tolerated therapy, but retention rates decline with long follow-up.

Epicardial adipose tissue as an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

Accurate risk stratification is important to improve patient selection and outcome of patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). As epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) is discussed to be involved in cardiovascular disease, it could be useful as a marker of poor prognosis in patients with severe AS undergoing TAVR. A total of 416 patients diagnosed with severe AS by transthoracic echocardiography were assigned for TAVR and enrolled for systematic assessment. Patients underwent clinical surveys and 5-year long-term follow-up, with all-cause mortality as the primary endpoint. EAT volume was quantified on pre-TAVR planning CTs. Patients were retrospectively dichotomized at the median of 74 cm3 of EAT into groups with low EAT and high EAT volumes. Mortality rates were compared using Kaplan-Meyer plots and uni- and multivariable cox regression analyses. A total number of 341 of 416 patients (median age 80.9years, 45% female) were included in the final analysis. Patients with high EAT volumes had similar short-term outcome (p = 0.794) but significantly worse long-term prognosis (p = 0.023) compared to patients with low EAT volumes. Increased EAT volumes were associated with worse long-term outcome (HR1.59; p = 0.031) independently from concomitant cardiovascular risk factors, general type of AS, and functional echocardiography parameters of AS severity (HR1.69; p = 0.013). Increased EAT volume is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with severe AS undergoing TAVR. It can be easily obtained from pre-TAVR planning CTs and may thus qualify as a novel marker to improve prognostication and management of patient with severe AS. DRKS, DRKS00024479.

TIMP-1 in the prognosis of patients who underwent coronary artery bypass surgery: a 12-year follow-up study.

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs) have been linked to clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the prognostic value of TIMP-1 in patients with CAD who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has not been elucidated. We aimed to investigate the correlations of TIMP-1 with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in the long-term prognosis of consecutive patients who underwent CABG. A total of 234 patients (age: 70.4 ± 10.5 years, 84.6% men) with CAD who underwent CABG were prospectively enrolled. Preoperative levels of MMPs, TIMP-1, hs-CRP, and NT-proBNP were recorded. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular death. During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 120 deaths were recorded. The deceased were older, had more manifest acute coronary syndrome (ACS), a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), but significantly higher MMP13, TIMP-1, hs-CRP, and NT-proBNP compared with the survivors. After adjusting for age, sex, manifest ACS, eGFR, LVEF, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, TIMP-1 (hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals per SD: 1.506, 1.183-1.917), hs-CRP (1.349, 1.183-1.561), and NT-ProBNP (1.707, 1.326-2.199) were all independently associated with all-cause mortality. The mediation analysis revealed that the mortality risks of TIMP-1 were partially mediated by NT-proBNP (62.2%) and hs-CRP (25.3%). The associations of TIMP-1 with MACE were partially mediated by NT-proBNP (54.4%) but not hs-CRP. TIMP-1 was an independent predictor of long-term outcomes after CABG, with possible roles in subclinical inflammation and postoperative cardiac remodeling.

PET4 Response As an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Outcomes in ECHELON2 (A+CHP Vs. CHOP) in CD30+PTCL

Background: Peripheral T-cell lymphomas (PTCLs) are uncommon, heterogeneous, and often aggressive subtypes of lymphoma characterized by a high risk of progression even after combination chemotherapy. The phase III, ECHELON-2 trial showed that the combination of brentuximab vedotin with chemotherapy (A+CHP) in patients (pts) with CD30-positive PTCLs improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) compared to CHOP. In PTCL, positron emission tomography (PET) is a valuable way to assess disease burden and stage at the time of diagnosis and evaluate treatment response. Prior retrospective studies have shown that interim and end of treatment PET may predict outcomes; however, there are no prospective studies confirming their predictive value. In the ECHELON-2 study, PET4 outcomes were prospectively collected, and the objective of this exploratory analysis is to investigate the potential for interim PET scans to predict treatment response and long-term outcomes. Objective: To evaluate the role of interim 18F-FDG PET imaging (PET4) in predicting end of treatment (EOT) response, progression free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) in pts (pts) with CD30+PTCL treated with A+CHP or CHOP in the ECHELON-2 trial. Methods: The ECHELON-2 trial included prospective 18F-FDG PET scans and assessment of treatment response including long-term PFS per investigator and OS. PET4 status was based on Deauville score by Independent Review Facility (IRF) assessment using scans at the cycle 4 response assessment. Deauville scores 1-3 are considered negative (PET4neg) and 4-5 positive (PET4pos). EOT response is the best response after completion of study treatment and prior to long term follow up per Cheson 2007 by IRF assessment. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate PFS and OS; p-values are based on stratified log-rank tests. All analyses are exploratory, and p-values are descriptive. Results: In this study, 452 pts were included, with 226 randomized to the A+CHP treatment arm and 226 to the CHOP treatment arm; median follow up was 66.8 months (range 0-90). Of randomized pts, 32 pts in the A+CHP arm and 41 pts in the CHOP arm were not evaluable for PET4. The overall results showed that the PET4neg evaluable subgroup had a higher proportion of pts achieving complete responses (CR) than PET4pos (80% vs. 9%) at EOT (Table 1). In pts assessed for PET4, pts who were PET4neg had improved PFS and OS in both the A+CHP and CHOP treatment arms (Figure 1). For A+CHP pts, those who achieved PET4neg had an improved PFS [HR 0.36, CI-95 (0.19-0.66), p=0.0006] and OS [HR 0.38, CI-95 (0.18-0.78), p=0.0060] compared to those who were PET4pos. Similarly, pts in the CHOP arm who achieved PET4neg had an improved PFS [HR 0.26, CI-95 (0.17-0.41), p<0.0001] and OS [HR 0.24, CI-95 (0.14-0.41), p< 0.0001] compared to those who were PET4pos. Among pts with anaplastic large cell lymphoma (sALCL) (n=316), 19 pts in the A+CHP arm and 32 in the CHOP arm were not evaluable for PET4. The results in this subgroup show that 128/143 (90%) A+CHP pts who had PET4 assessments achieved PET4neg. These pts experienced improved PFS [HR 0.28, CI-95 (0.14-0.60), p=0.0004] and OS [HR 0.38, CI-95 (0.16-0.94), p 0.0292] compared to PET4pos pts. For CHOP pts who had PET4 assessments 98/122 (80%), achieved PET4neg; these pts experienced improved PFS [HR 0.31, CI-95 (0.12-0.55), p<0.0001] and improved OS [HR 0.25, CI-95 (0.12-0.25), p= 0.0002] compared to PET4pos pts. Conclusion: In an exploratory analysis of interim PET imaging as part of the ECHELON-2 study, PET4neg by Deauville was associated with improved PFS and OS in both the A+CHP and CHOP arms. Our findings support the use of PET4 response in PTCL as a predictor of outcomes in both the A+CHP and CHOP pts. These findings emphasize the potential of PET scans to enhance risk stratification, individualize therapy decisions, and improve pt outcomes in the management of PTCLs. Further analysis will be presented at the meeting.

Susceptibility vessel sign, a predictor of long-term outcome in patients with stroke treated with mechanical thrombectomy

BackgroundThe absence of the susceptibility vessel sign (SVS) in patients treated with mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is associated with poor radiological and clinical outcomes after 3 months. Underlying conditions, such as...

The neoadjuvant rectal score and a novel magnetic resonance imaging based neoadjuvant rectal score are stage independent predictors of long-term outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score is an early surrogate for longer-term outcomes in rectal cancer undergoing radiotherapy and resection. In an era of increasing organ preservation, resection specimens are not always available to calculate the NAR score. Post-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) re-staging of regression is subjective, limiting reproducibility. We explored the potential for a novel MRI-based NAR score (mrNAR) adapted from the NAR formula. Locally advanced rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy (nCRT) and surgery were retrospectively identified between 2008 and 2020 in a single cancer network. mrNAR was calculated by adapting the NAR formula, replacing pathological (p) stages with post-nCRT MR stages (ymr). Cox regression assessed relationships between clinicopathological characteristics, NAR and mrNAR with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). In total, 381 NAR and 177 mrNAR scores were calculated. On univariate analysis NAR related to OS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-3.14, p = 0.001) and RFS (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.77-3.59, p = 0.001). NAR 3-year OS <8 was 95.3%, 8-16 was 88.6% and >16 was 80%. mrNAR related to OS (HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.38-6.34, p = 0.005) and RFS (HR 2.99, 95% CI 1.49-6.00, p = 0.002). 3-year OS for mrNAR <8 was 96.2%, 8-16 was 92.4% and >16 was 78%. On multivariate analysis, mrNAR was a stage-independent predictor of OS and RFS. mrNAR corresponded to NAR score category in only 15% (positive predictive value 0.23) and 47.5% (positive predictive value 0.48) of cases for categories <8 and >16, respectively. Neoadjuvant rectal score is validated as a surrogate end-point for long-term outcomes. mrNAR categories do not correlate with NAR but have stage-independent prognostic value. mrNAR may represent a novel surrogate end-point for future neoadjuvant treatments that focus on organ preservation.

Long-term Mortality, Readmission, and Resource Utilization Among Hospital Survivors of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

Among patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), the influence of pre- and in-hospital factors on long-term survival, readmission, and resource utilization is ill-defined, mainly related to challenges combining disparate data sources. Adult nontraumatic OHCA from the British Columbia Cardiac Arrest Registry (January 2009 to December 2016) were linked to provincial datasets comprising comorbidities, medications, cardiac procedures, mortality, and hospital admission and discharge. Among hospital-discharge survivors, the 3-year end point of mortality or mortality and all-cause readmission was examined with the use of the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariable Cox regression model for predictors. The use of publicly funded home care and community services within 1 year after discharge also was evaluated. Of the 10,674 linked, emergency medical services-treated adult OHCAs, 3230 were admitted to hospital and 1325 survived to hospital discharge. At 3 years after discharge, the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival rate was 84.1% (95% CI 81.7%-86.1%) and freedom from death or all-cause readmission was 31.8% (29.0%-34.7%). After exclusions, 26.6% (n= 315/1186) accessed residential or home care services within 1 year. Independent predictors of long-term outcomes included age and comorbidities, but also favourable arrest characteristics and in-hospital factors such as revascularization or receipt of an intracardiac defibrillator before discharge. Among OHCA hospital survivors, the long-term death or readmission risk persists and is modulated by both pre- and in-hospital factors. However, only 1 in 4 survivors required residential or home care after discharge. These results support efforts to improve care processes to increase survival to hospital discharge.

Estrogen Receptor Alpha Gene Amplification Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Outcome in Postmenopausal Patients with Endocrine-Responsive Early Breast Cancer.

Estrogen receptor (ER) expression is a prognostic parameter in breast cancer, and a prerequisite for the use of endocrine therapy. In ER+ early breast cancer, however, no receptor-associated biomarker exists that identifies patients with a particularly favorable outcome. We have investigated the value of ESR1 amplification in predicting the long-term clinical outcome in tamoxifen-treated postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer. 394 patients who had been randomized into the tamoxifen-only arm of the prospective randomized ABCSG-06 trial of adjuvant endocrine therapy with available formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue were included in this analysis. IHC ERα expression was evaluated both locally and in a central lab using the Allred score, while ESR1 gene amplification was evaluated by FISH analysis using the ESR1/CEP6 ratio indicating focal copy number alterations. Focal ESR1 copy-number elevations (amplifications) were detected in 187 of 394 (47%) tumor specimens, and were associated with a favorable outcome: After a median follow-up of 10 years, women with intratumoral focal ESR1 amplification had a significantly longer distant recurrence-free survival [adjusted HR, 0.48; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.26-0.91; P = 0.02] and breast cancer-specific survival (adjusted HR 0.47; 95% CI, 0.27-0.80; P = 0.01) as compared with women without ESR1 amplification. IHC ERα protein expression, evaluated by Allred score, correlated significantly with focal ESR1 amplification (P < 0.0001; χ2 test), but was not prognostic by itself. Focal ESR1 amplification is an independent and powerful predictor for long-term distant recurrence-free and breast cancer-specific survival in postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early-stage breast cancer who received tamoxifen for 5 years.

Prognostic value of systemic inflammatory response syndrome after transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) could affect mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) up to 12 months of follow-up. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of SIRS after TAVI and its impact on all-cause mortality up to 24 months follow-up. We retrospectively enrolled 132 patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI. SIRS development during the first 72 h after the intervention was evaluated. Other postoperative complications were defined according to the Valve Academic Research Consortium 2 (VARC2). All patients underwent follow-up at 30 days and 24 months. Endpoints were 30-days and 24-months mortality. Post-TAVI SIRS developed in 27 patients (20%). At 30-day follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 10 (8%) patients and SIRS occurred more frequently in patients with adverse short-term outcome (60 vs. 17%; P = 0.001). Twenty-four months all-cause death occurred in 25 (19%) patients. SIRS resulted as an independent predictor of long-term outcome [hazard ratio 3.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.5-9; P = 0.004], along with major vascular complications (hazard ratio 4; 95% CI 1.6-9.9; P = 0.003), relevant bleedings (hazard ratio 6.4; 95% CI 1.5-28; P = 0.013) and baseline pulmonary hypertension (hazard ratio 2.4; 95% CI 1.05-5.6; P = 0.039). Postoperative SIRS was more frequent in patients who died at 30 days follow-up. Moreover, SIRS resulted as a predictor of 24-month mortality along with vascular complications, relevant bleedings and baseline pulmonary hypertension.

Diastolic Dysfunction following Acute Myocardial Infarction with ST Segment Elevation

ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) caused by atherosclerotic vulnerable plaque rupture or plaque erosion, resulting in activation of the coagulation cascade. It causes a temporal sequence known as the “ischemic cascade,” which first involves the metabolic process, the diastolic dysfunction, and then systolic dysfunction. Diastolic dysfunction in STEMI patient is an independent predictor for long-term outcome. Rapid and early restoration of blood flow is critical to ensure cell recovery and prevent additional damage.

Modified Systemic Inflammation Score Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Outcome in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction.

Background: The modified systemic inflammation score (mSIS), which is calculated by a composite score of the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio and the albumin content in serum, is identified as the new score to predict the prognosis for various cancers. However, its significance for patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEJ), who receive surgery, remains unclear.Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed 317 patients with AEJ receiving surgery between September 2010 and December 2016. The associations between the mSIS and the clinicopathological features, overall survival (OS), as well as relapse-free survival (RFS), were assessed. In addition, the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curve analysis was performed for comparing the value of those scoring systems in predicting patient prognosis.Results: Of the 317 cases, 119 were rated as mSIS 0, 123 as mSIS 1, and 75 as mSIS 2. Besides, mSIS was significantly related to age and tumor size. On multivariate analysis, mSIS was identified as a predictor to independently predict OS (p < 0.001) along with RFS (p < 0.001), and a significantly strong correlation was observed at the advanced pTNM stages based on the mSIS system. In the subgroup analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy and surgery alone, mSIS was still the predictor for independently predicting patient OS (p < 0.001) together with RFS (p < 0.001) for the two groups. T-ROC analysis showed that mSIS was more accurate than controlling nutritional status score in predicting OS and RFS.Conclusions: The mSIS can serve as an easy, useful scoring system to independently predict the preoperative survival for AEJ cases undergoing surgery.

Impact of Baseline Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio on Long-Term Prognosis in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

We performed a retrospective analysis involving 1269 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) to evaluate the predictive value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on long-term outcomes. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and combined end point events (CEEs). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were performed. During a median follow-up of 3.32 years, 285 deaths and 376 CEEs occurred. With the elevation of the NLR, the incidence of all-cause mortality (2.77, 4.14, 6.12, and 12.18/100 person-years) and CEEs (4.19, 7.40, 8.03, and 15.22/100 person-years) significantly increased. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that the highest NLR quartile was independently associated with the incidence of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.19-2.65) and CEEs (HR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.18-2.33). When the NLR was analyzed as a continuous variable, a 1-unit increment in log NLR was related to 134% increased risk of all-cause mortality and 119% increased risk of CEEs. Net reclassification improvement analysis revealed that NLR significantly improved risk stratification for all-cause death and CEEs by 15.0% and 9.6%, respectively. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio could be an independent predictor of long-term outcomes in patients with AF.

Global longitudinal strain predicts cardiovascular events after coronary artery bypass grafting

ObjectiveTo determine the prognostic value of global longitudinal strain (GLS) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study on patients undergoing CABG between 2006 and 2011 who...

Prognostic Implication of Right Ventricle Parameters Measured on Preoperative Cardiac MRI in Patients with Functional Tricuspid Regurgitation.

ObjectiveTo investigate the prognostic value of preoperative cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for long-term major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) in patients undergoing tricuspid valve (TV) surgery for functional tricuspid regurgitation (TR).Materials and MethodsThe preoperative cardiac MR images, New York Heart Association functional class, comorbidities, and clinical events of 78 patients (median [interquartile range], 59 [51–66.3] years, 28.2% male) who underwent TV surgery for functional TR were comprehensively reviewed. Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to assess the associations of clinical and imaging parameters with MACCEs and all-cause mortality.ResultsFor the median follow-up duration of 5.4 years (interquartile range, 1.2–6.6), MACCEs and all-cause mortality were 51.3% and 23.1%, respectively. The right ventricular (RV) end-systolic volume index (ESVI) and the systolic RV mass index (RVMI) were higher in patients with MACCEs than those without them (77 vs. 68 mL/m2, p = 0.048; 23.5 vs. 18.0%, p = 0.011, respectively). A high RV ESVI was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per value of 10 higher ESVI = 1.10, p = 0.03). A high RVMI was also associated with all-cause mortality (HR per increase of 5 mL/m2 RVMI = 1.75, p < 0.001). After adjusting for age and sex, only RVMI remained a significant predictor of MACCEs and all-cause mortality (p < 0.05 for both). After adjusting for multiple clinical variables, RVMI remained significantly associated with all-cause mortality (p = 0.005).ConclusionRVMI measured on preoperative cardiac MRI was an independent predictor of long-term outcomes in patients who underwent TV surgery for functional TR.

COAPT-Like Profile Predicts Long-Term Outcomes in Patients With Secondary Mitral Regurgitation Undergoing MitraClip Implantation.

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether fulfilling COAPT (Cardiovascular Outcomes Assessment of the MitraClip Percutaneous Therapy for HeartFailure Patients With Functional Mitral Regurgitation) criteria identifies patients with better outcomes after MitraClip treatment for secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR). To date, COAPT is the only trial showing a prognostic benefit of MitraClip implantation compared with conservative management. Three hundred four patients with SMR undergoing MitraClip placement in addition to optimal medical therapy at 3 European centers were analyzed. A COAPT-like profile was defined as absence of all the followingcriteria: severe left ventricular impairment, moderate to severe right ventricular dysfunction, severe tricuspid regurgitation, severe pulmonary hypertension, and hemodynamic instability. Freedom from all-cause death and from a composite endpoint (cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization) were evaluated at 2- and 5-year follow-up. A COAPT-like profile was observed in 65% of the population. Compared with non-COAPT-like patients, those fulfilling COAPT criteria had greater survival free from all-cause death and from the composite endpoint at both 2 year (75% vs. 55% and 67% vs. 47%; p<0.001 for both) and 5-year (49% vs. 25% and 40% vs. 19%; p<0.001 for both) follow-up. Among the non-COAPT-like patients, similar outcomes were observed in those fulfilling 1 or≥1 criterion. Left ventricular impairment had a late impact on outcomes, while right ventricular impairment, pulmonary hypertension, andhemodynamic instability had early effects. COAPT-like profile was an independent predictor of long-term outcomes, as well as administration of neurohormonal antagonists, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II score, and previous heart failure hospitalization. A COAPT-like profile, including specific echocardiographic and clinical criteria, identifies patients with SMR who have a better prognosis after MitraClip implantation.

Abstract 13081: Predictive Value of Visceral-to-subcutaneous Fat Ratio for Long-term Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

Introduction: Although visceral fat accumulation is an important risk factor for coronary artery diseases (CAD), the relationship between visceral fat accumulation and its long-term outcomes has not been extensively investigated. Hypothesis: In patients with suspected CAD, the distribution of subcutaneous fat and visceral fat is associated with cardiovascular events. Methods: Computed tomography (CT) angiographies (CTA) were performed on 945 consecutive patients with suspected CAD. Plain abdominal CT scanning was performed to measure the patients’ visceral fat area (VFA) and subcutaneous fat area (SFA). The VFA/SFA (V/S) ratios were calculated to assess the visceral fat accumulation. Based on the results of the CTA, the prevalence of CAD was assessed. The patients were classified into low (&lt;0.627), and high (≥0.627) V/S ratio groups, based on their median value, and the association between V/S ratio and long-term outcomes was evaluated. The primary endpoints were major cardiac adverse events (MACE), including all-cause death, new-onset acute coronary syndrome (ACS), emergent hospitalization due to cardiovascular disease, and any coronary revascularization. Results: The average follow-up period was 845.3 days. The baseline characteristics for patients in the high V/S ratio group were worse than those for patients in the low high V/S ratio group. As compared to the low V/S ratio group, a higher incidence of MACE and ACS, and a higher tendency of mortality was observed in the high V/S ratio group. After adjusting for traditional coronary risk factors, the V/S ratio was independently associated with incidence of MACE, ACS, and increase of mortality (table). Conclusions: The present study suggests that the V/S ratio is an independent predictor of long-term outcomes in patients with suspected CAD. The visceral fat accumulation indicated by high V/S ratio signifies a potential risk and may contribute to the future cardiovascular events in patients with suspected CAD.

Abstract 13621: Predictors of Short-term and Long-term Clinical Outcomes After an Acute Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter Admission

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity globally. This study aims to identify predictors of AF-related rehospitalization following an acute AF/flutter admission. Methods: Patients admitted to Westmead Hospital with a primary diagnosis of AF/flutter from 1 May 2014 to 31 May 2018 were included and followed up until 31 May 2019. We defined AF-related rehospitalization as an admission due to recurrent AF/flutter, congestive heart failure, stroke and/or myocardial infarction. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30-day outcomes. Cox regression was used to identify independent predictors of long-term outcomes: first AF-related rehospitalization or all-cause mortality. Results: Of 1664 consecutive patients admitted with AF/flutter, 55.8% were male and the median age was 68.0. At 30 days, 123 (7.4%) had an AF-related readmission (110 for AF/flutter and 13 for other cardiovascular outcomes). During a mean follow-up period of 2.1 ± 1.5 years, 683 (41.0%) of patients had at least one AF-related rehospitalization (38.1%, n=634) or died (2.9%, n=49). Chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.07 - 3.50) was an independent predictor of 30-day AF-related rehospitalization. Age (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01 - 1.02 for each additional year), initial admission via emergency (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.08 - 1.54), CKD (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.24 - 2.18), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09 - 1.83) and the presence of additional comorbidities (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.04 - 1.83) were independent predictors of first AF-related rehospitalization or death (all p &lt;0.05). Conclusion: AF-related rehospitalization is common following an acute AF/flutter admission. AF/flutter patients with comorbidities, particularly renal and pulmonary diseases, are at high risk of readmission. Such patients could be targeted for increased surveillance and additional post-discharge support to prevent readmission.

Clinical Molecular Imaging of Pulmonary CXCR4 Expression to Predict Outcome of Pirfenidone Treatment in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive disease for which two antifibrotic drugs recently were approved. However, an unmet need exists to predict responses to antifibrotic treatment, such as pirfenidone. Recent data suggest that upregulated expression of CXCR4 is indicative of outcomes in IPF. Can quantitative, molecular imaging of pulmonary CXCR4 expression as a biomarker for disease activity predict response to the targeted treatment pirfenidone and prognosis in patients with IPF? CXCR4 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry examination of lung tissues and reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction analysis of BAL. PET-CT scanning with the specific CXCR4 ligand 68Ga-pentixafor was performed in 28 IPF patients and compared with baseline clinical characteristics. In 16 patients, a follow-up scan was obtained 6 to 12weeks after initiation of treatment with pirfenidone. Patients were followed up in our outpatient clinic for≥ 12months. Immunohistochemistry analysis showed high CXCR4 staining of epithelial cells and macrophages in areas with vast fibrotic remodeling. Targeted PET scanning revealed CXCR4 upregulation in fibrotic areas of the lungs, particularly in zones with subpleural honeycombing. Baseline CXCR4 signal demonstrated a significant correlation with Gender Age Physiology stage (r= 0.44; P= .02) and with high-resolution CT scan score (r= 0.38; P= .04). Early changes in CXCR4 signal after initiation of pirfenidone treatment correlated with the long-term course of FVC after 12months (r= -0.75; P= .0008). Moreover, patients with a high pulmonary CXCR4 signal on follow-up PET scan after 6weeks into treatment demonstrated a statistically significant worse outcome at 12months (P= .002). In multiple regression analysis, pulmonary CXCR4 signal on follow-up PET scan emerged as the only independent predictor of long-term outcome (P= .0226). CXCR4-targeted PET imaging identified disease activity and predicted outcome of IPF patients treated with pirfenidone. It may serve as a future biomarker for personalized guidance of antifibrotic treatment.

Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction with and without Creatinine Kinase Elevation-Post-Hoc Analysis of the J-MINUET Study.

Background: A Japanese prospective, nation-wide, multicenter registry (J-MINUET) showed that long-term outcomes were worse in non-ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), diagnosed by increased cardiac troponin levels, compared to STEMI. This was observed in both non-STEMI with elevated creatine kinase (CK) (NSTEMI+CK) and non-STEMI without elevated CK (NSTEMI-CK). However, predictive factors for long-term outcomes in STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK have not been elucidated. Methods: Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we determined significant independent predictors of long-term outcomes from a total of 111 parameters evaluated in the J-MINUET study in each of our groups, including STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK. Then, we calculated the risk score using the regression coefficients for the determined independent predictors for the strict prediction of long-term outcomes. Results: Prognostic factors, as well as composite cardiovascular events and all-cause death, were different between STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK. Risk scores could effectively and powerfully predict both composite cardiovascular events and all-cause death in each group. Conclusions: The prediction of long-term outcomes using cored parameters of baseline demographics and clinical characteristics is feasible and could prove useful in establishing therapeutic strategies in patients with STEMI, NSTEMI+CK, and NSTEMI-CK.