Independent Predictor Of Early Recurrence Research Articles

Very Early Recurrence After Curative Resection for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Proof of Concept for a "Biological R2 Definition".

Very early recurrence after radical surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has been poorly investigated. This study was designed to evaluate this group of patients who developed recurrence, within 12 weeks after surgery, defined as "biological R2 resections (bR2)." Data from patients who underwent surgical resection as upfront procedure or after neoadjuvant treatment for PDAC between 2015 and 2019 were analyzed. Disease-free, disease-specific survival, and independent predictors of early recurrence were examined. The same analysis was performed separately for upfront and neoadjuvant treated patients. Of the 573 patients included in the study, 63 (11%) were classified as bR2. The rate of neoadjuvant treatment was similar in bR2 and in the remaining patients (44 vs. 42%, p = 0.78). After a median follow-up of 27 months, median DFS and DSS for the entire cohort were 17 and 43 months, respectively. Median DSS of bR2 group was 13 months. The only preoperative identifiable independent predictor of very early recurrence was body-tail site lesion, whereas all other were pathological: higher pT (8th classification), G3 differentiation, and high lymph node ratio. These predictors were confirmed for patients undergoing upfront surgery, whereas in the neoadjuvant group the only independent predictor was pT. One of ten patients with "radical" resected PDAC relapses very early after surgery (bR2); hence, imaging must be routinely repeated within 12 weeks. Despite higher biological aggressiveness and worse pathology, this bR2 cluster eludes our preoperative examinations.

Long-term outcomes and early recurrence after resection for metachronous pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer.

Properly selecting patients for aggressive curative resection for pulmonary metastases (PMs) from colorectal cancer (CRC) is desirable. We purposed to clarify prognostic factors and risk factors for early recurrence after metachronous PM resection. Clinical data of 151 patients who underwent R0 resection for metachronous PMs from CRC at two institutions between 2008 and 2021 were reviewed. Seventy-six patients (50.3%) were male, and the median age was 71 (42-91) years. The numbers of colon/rectal cancers were 76/75, with pStage I/II/III/IV/unknown in 15/34/86/13/3. The duration from primary surgery to PM was 19.7 (1.0-106.4) months. The follow-up period was 41.9 (0.3-156.2) months. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were 75.1%, 53.7%, and 51.1%, and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 97.7%, 87.5%, and 68.2%. On multivariate analysis, lymph node metastasis of the primary lesion (HR 1.683, 95%CI 1.003-2.824, p = 0.049) was an independent predictor of poor RFS, and history of resection for extrapulmonary metastasis (e-PM) (HR 2.328, 95%CI 1.139-4.761, p = 0.021) was an independent predictor of poor OS. Patients who experienced early recurrence (< 6months) after PM resection showed poorer OS than others (3-year OS 50.8% vs. 90.2%, p = 0.002). On multivariate analysis, e-PM was an independent predictor of early recurrence after PM resection (OR 3.989, 95%CI 1.002-15.885, p = 0.049). Since a history of e-PM was a predictor of early recurrence and poor OS after R0 resection for PM, surgical treatment of patients with a history of e-PM should be considered carefully.

Increased Plasmatic Levels of Exosomes Are Significantly Related to Relapse Rate in Patients with Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Cohort Study

Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is characterized by an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Their plasma-derived exosomes deliver immunomodulatory molecules and cargo that correlate significantly with clinical parameters. This study aims to assess the exosomal profile as a potential tool for early detection of relapse and long-term outcomes in OSCC patients undergoing conventional therapy. Methods: 27 OSCC patients with a median 38-month follow-up were included in this study. The relationship between NTA-derived parameters and clinical pathological parameters was examined, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of these values in detecting cancer relapse. Results: Plasmatic levels of exosomes prior to surgery showed a drastic reduction after surgical intervention (8.08E vs. 1.41 × 109 particles/mL, p = 0.006). Postsurgical concentrations of exosomes were higher in patients who experienced relapse compared to those who remained disease-free (2.97 × 109 vs. 1.11 × 109 particles/mL, p = 0.046). Additionally, patients who relapsed exhibited larger exosome sizes after surgery (141.47 vs. 132.31 nm, p = 0.03). Patients with lower concentrations of exosomes prior to surgery demonstrated better disease-free survival compared to those with higher levels (p = 0.012). ROC analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.82 for presurgical exosome concentration in identifying relapse. Conclusions: Presurgical exosomal plasmatic levels serve as independent predictors of early recurrence and survival in OSCC. All in all, our findings indicate that the detection of peripheral exosomes represents a novel tool for the clinical management of OSCC, with potential implications for prognosis assessment.

Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Including Body Composition Parameters for Predicting Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy

Body composition, including adipose and muscle tissues, evaluated by computer tomography is correlated with the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, its relationship with early recurrence (ER) remains unclear. This study aimed at establishing and validating a nomogram based on body composition and clinicopathological indices to predict ER of HCC. One hundred ninety-five patients from institution A formed the training cohort and internal validation cohort, and 50 patients from institution B formed the external validation cohort. Independent predictors of ER were identified using LASSO and Cox regression analyses. The performance of nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA). After data screening, the nomogram was constructed using eight independent predictors of ER, including the tumor size, alpha fetoprotein, body mass index, Edmondson Steiner grade, visceral adipose tissue radiodensity, intermuscular adipose tissue index, intramuscular adipose tissue content, and skeletal muscle area. The calibration curve exhibited excellent concordances, with C-indices of 0.808 (95%CI: 0.771-0.860), 0.802 (95%CI: 0.747-0.942), and 0.804 (95%CI: 0.701-0.861) in training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. In addition, compared to conventional staging systems and pure clinical model, the nomogram exhibited a higher AUC and wider range of threshold probabilities in DCA, which indicated better discriminative ability and greater clinical benefit. Finally, patients with nomogram scores of <183.07, 183.07-243.09, and >243.09 were considered to have low, moderate, and high risks of ER, respectively. The nomogram exhibits excellent ER predictive ability for patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy.

The significance of countable and treatable metastatic liver disease in patients with gallbladder carcinoma after curative-intent surgery: A 10-year experience in China.

Our study was performed to evaluate the significance of countable and treatable metastatic liver disease (CTMLD) in patients with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) after curative-intent surgery. Resected GBC patients between September 2010 and January 2021 were reviewed. Comparative analyses between patients with CTMLD and those without it were performed. A propensity score matching analysis was conducted for further validation. A total of 326 resected GBC patients were identified (33 with CTMLD). A significantly higher preoperative CA199 level was detected in those with CTMLD (p = 0.0160). Significantly higher incidences of major hepatectomy (p = 0.0010), lymph node metastasis (p < 0.0001), direct liver invasion (p < 0.0001), moderate to poor differentiation status (p < 0.0001), and T3-4 disease (p < 0.0001) were detected in patients with CTMLD. Even sharing comparable surgical margin status, patients with CTMLD still shared a significantly higher recurrence rate (93.9% vs. 57.3%, p < 0.0001) as well as a significantly higher recurrence rate within 6 months after surgery (63.6% vs. 14.7%, p < 0.0001). A significantly worse overall survival (median survival time: 12 vs. 33 months, p < 0.0001) or disease-free survival (median recurrence-free time: 6 vs. 30 months, p < 0.0001) was acquired in patients with CTMLD. After matching, a significantly higher early recurrence rate was still detected. Adjuvant chemotherapy seemed to have survival benefit for patients with CTMLD. CTMLD was an indicator of advanced disease and served as an independent predictor of early recurrence among resected GBC patients. Whether curative-intent surgery is superior to nonsurgical treatment among GBC patients with CTMLD remains to be explored in future prospective studies.

Novel online calculator to predict reduced risk of early recurrence from adjuvant transarterial chemoembolisation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BackgroundThe role of adjuvant transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) to reduce postoperative recurrence varies widely among patients undergoing hepatectomy with curative intent for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Personalised predictive tool to select which...

A new scoring system with simple preoperative parameters as predictors of early recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) often recurs early after radical resection, and such early recurrence (ER) is associated with a poor prognosis. Predicting ER is useful for determining the optimal treatment. One hundred fifty-three patients who underwent pancreatectomy for PDAC were divided into an ER group (n = 54) and non-ER group (n = 99). Clinicopathological factors were compared between the groups, and the predictors of ER and prognosis after PDAC resection were examined. The ER group had a higher platelet count, higher platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), higher preoperative CA19-9 concentration, higher SPan-1 concentration, larger tumor diameter, and more lymph node metastasis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis identified cut-off values for PLR, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), SPan-1, and tumor diameter. In the multivariate analysis, a high PLR, high CA19-9, and tumor diameter of >3.1 cm were independent predictors of ER after resection (all p < 0.05). When the parameter exceeded the cut-off level, 1 point was given, and the total score of the three factors was defined as the ER prediction score. Next, our new ER prediction model using PLR, CA19-9 and tumor diameter (Logit(p) = 1.6 + 1.2 × high PLR + 0.7 × high CA19-9 + 0.5 × tumor diameter > 3.1cm) distinguished ER with an area under the curve of 0.763, a sensitivity of 85.2%, and a specificity of 55.6%. ER after resection of PDAC can be predicted by calculation of a score using the preoperative serum CA19-9 concentration, PLR, and tumor diameter.

The significance of peri-neural invasion in patients with gallbladder carcinoma after curative surgery: a 10year experience in China.

The significance of peri-neural invasion (PNI) in patients with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) after curative surgery remains unknown. Current study was performed to evaluate the significance of PNI in resected GBC patients in terms of tumor-related biological features and long-term survival. Patients with GBC between September 2010 and September 2020 were reviewed and analyzed. SPSS 25.0 software were used for statistical analysis. A total of 324 resected GBC patients were identified (No. PNI: 64). An elevated preoperative Ca19.9 level (P = 0.001), obstructive jaundice (P = 0.001), liver invasion (P < 0.0001), lymph-vascular invasion (P < 0.0001), lymph-node metastasis (P < 0.0001), and poor or moderate differentiation status (P = 0.036) were more frequently detected in patients with PNI. Major hepatectomy (P = 0.019), bile duct resection (P < 0.0001), combined multi-visceral resections (P = 0.001), and combined major vascular resections and reconstructions (P = 0.002) were also more frequently detected. However, a significantly lower R0 rate (P < 0.0001) was acquired in patients with PNI. Patients with PNI were generally more advanced disease and shared a much worse prognosis even after matching. PNI was an independent prognostic factor of disease-free survival as well as an independent predictor of early recurrence. Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy has brought an obvious survival benefit in resected GBC patients with PNI. PNI could be regarded as an indicator of worse prognosis and could serve as an independent predictor of early recurrence. Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy was correlated with an improved survival for resected GBC patients with PNI. Upcoming multicenter studies covering various races are warranted for further validation.

Preoperative prediction of macrotrabecular-massive hepatocellular carcinoma through dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging-based radiomics.

Macrotrabecular-massive hepatocellular carcinoma (MTM-HCC) is closely related to aggressive phenotype, gene mutation, carcinogenic pathway, and immunohistochemical markers and is a strong independent predictor of early recurrence and poor prognosis. With the development of imaging technology, successful applications of contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been reported in identifying the MTM-HCC subtype. Radiomics, as an objective and beneficial method for tumour evaluation, is used to convert medical images into high-throughput quantification features that greatly push the development of precision medicine. To establish and verify a nomogram for preoperatively identifying MTM-HCC by comparing different machine learning algorithms. This retrospective study enrolled 232 (training set, 162; test set, 70) hepatocellular carcinoma patients from April 2018 to September 2021. A total of 3111 radiomics features were extracted from dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, followed by dimension reduction of these features. Logistic regression (LR), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), Bayes, Tree, and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms were used to select the best radiomics signature. We used the relative standard deviation (RSD) and bootstrap methods to quantify the stability of these five algorithms. The algorithm with the lowest RSD represented the best stability, and it was used to construct the best radiomics model. Multivariable logistic analysis was used to select the useful clinical and radiological features, and different predictive models were established. Finally, the predictive performances of the different models were assessed by evaluating the area under the curve (AUC). The RSD values based on LR, KNN, Bayes, Tree, and SVM were 3.8%, 8.6%, 4.3%, 17.7%, and 17.4%, respectively. Therefore, the LR machine learning algorithm was selected to construct the best radiomics signature, which performed well with AUCs of 0.766 and 0.739 in the training and test sets, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, age [odds ratio (OR) = 0.956, P = 0.034], alpha-fetoprotein (OR = 10.066, P < 0.001), tumour size (OR = 3.316, P = 0.002), tumour-to-liver apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) ratio (OR = 0.156, P = 0.037), and radiomics score (OR = 2.923, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of MTM-HCC. Among the different models, the predictive performances of the clinical-radiomics model and radiological-radiomics model were significantly improved compared to those of the clinical model (AUCs: 0.888 vs 0.836, P = 0.046) and radiological model (AUCs: 0.796 vs 0.688, P = 0.012), respectively, in the training set, highlighting the improved predictive performance of radiomics. The nomogram performed best, with AUCs of 0.896 and 0.805 in the training and test sets, respectively. The nomogram containing radiomics, age, alpha-fetoprotein, tumour size, and tumour-to-liver ADC ratio revealed excellent predictive ability in preoperatively identifying the MTM-HCC subtype.

A novel combined carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio score can predict early recurrence of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) often recurs early after radical resection, which causes a poor prognosis. This study aimed to establish a scoring model to assess the optimal treatment in patients who underwent surgery for PDAC. This single-center retrospective study included 127 patients who underwent radical resection for PDAC between 2005 and 2021. Early recurrence (ER) was defined as recurrence within 12months after resection. The predictive effect for ER was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of preoperative parameters. ER occurred in 43 (33.9%) patients. The ER group had a significantly worse prognosis than the non-ER group (p < 0.0001). The carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) were the strongest diagnostic factors (areas under the ROC curves: 0.74 and 0.68, respectively). The ER prediction score was calculated using optimal cutoff values. A higher CA19-9-LMR score was associated with a worse prognosis in terms of the overall and recurrence-free survival (p = 0.0017 and p < 0.0001, respectively). A multivariate analysis identified a high CA19-9-LMR score as an independent predictor of ER. The CA19-9-LMR scoring model can predict ER after surgery and is applicable for risk stratification in the assessment of patients with resectable PDAC.

Research progress of radiomics in the evaluation of microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an independent predictor of early recurrence and poor prognosis following hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection and transplantation. As a novel non-invasive diagnostic tool, radiomics can extract the quantitative imaging features of tumors and peritumoral tissues with high throughput, providing more information on tumor heterogeneity than conventional and functional imaging of visual analysis and having a good application prospect in predicting the presence of MVI in HCC patients, thereby improving the accuracy of HCC diagnosis and prognosis. The value of the multimodal radiomics method based on various imaging methods in evaluating the possibility of MVI in HCC patients is elucidated here in combination with the latest research progress.

A model incorporating histopathology and preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma without microvascular invasion after curative hepatectomy.

To assess the predictive value of preoperative gadoxetic acid (GA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features and postoperative histopathological grading for early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without microvascular invasion (MVI) after curative hepatectomy. A total of 85 MVI-negative HCC cases were retrospectively analyzed. Cox analyses were used to identify the independent predictors of early recurrence (within a 24 months span). The clinical prediction Model-1 or Model-2 was established without or with postoperative pathological factor, respectively. Nomogram models were constructed and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the models' predictive ability. Internal validation of the prediction models for early HCC recurrence was performed using a bootstrap re-sampling approach. In the multivariate cox regression analysis, Edmondson-Steiner grade, peritumoral hypointensity on hepatobiliary phase (HBP), and relative intensity ratio (RIR) in HBP were identified as independent variables associated with early recurrence. The C-index of the nomogram models and internal validation were both between 0.7 and 0.8, showing good model fitting and calibration effects. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.781 for Model-1 based on the two preoperative MRI factors. When a third factor, the Edmondson-Steiner grade, was included (Model-2), the AUC increased to 0.834, and the sensitivity increased from 71.4 to 96.4%. Edmondson-Steiner grade, peritumoral hypointensity on HBP, and RIR on HBP can help predict early recurrence of MVI-negative HCC. In comparison with Model-1 (only imaging features), Model-2 (imaging features + histopathological grades) increases the sensitivity in predicting early recurrence of HCC without MVI. Preoperative GA-enhanced MRI signs are of great value in predicting early postoperative recurrence of HCC without MVI, and a combined pathological model was established to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of this technique.

Corona enhancement combined with microvascular invasion for prognosis prediction of macrotrabecular-massive hepatocellular carcinoma subtype.

The macrotrabecular-massive (MTM) subtype of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is aggressive and associated with an unfavorable prognosis. This study aimed to characterize MTM-HCC features based on contrast-enhanced MRI and to evaluate the prognosis of imaging characteristics combined with pathology for predicting early recurrence and overall survival after surgery. This retrospective study included 123 patients with HCC that underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI and surgery, between July 2020 and October 2021. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to investigate factors associated with MTM-HCC. Predictors of early recurrence were determined with a Cox proportional hazards model and validated in a separate retrospective cohort. The primary cohort included 53 patients with MTM-HCC (median age 59 years; 46 male and 7 females; median BMI 23.5 kg/m2) and 70 subjects with non-MTM HCC (median age 61.5 years; 55 male and 15 females; median BMI 22.6 kg/m2) (All P>0.05). The multivariate analysis identified corona enhancement (odds ratio [OR]=2.52, 95% CI: 1.02-6.24; P=0.045) as an independent predictor of the MTM-HCC subtype. The multiple Cox regression analysis identified corona enhancement (hazard ratio [HR]=2.56, 95% CI: 1.08-6.08; P=0.033) and MVI (HR=2.45, 95% CI: 1.40-4.30; P=0.002) as independent predictors of early recurrence (area under the curve=0.790, P<0.001). The prognostic significance of these markers was confirmed by comparing results in the validation cohort to those from the primary cohort. Corona enhancement combined with MVI was significantly associated with poor outcomes after surgery. A nomogram for predicting early recurrence based on corona enhancement and MVI could be used to characterize patients with MTM-HCC and predict their prognosis for early recurrence and overall survival after surgery.

Deep learning nomogram based on Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI for predicting early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

ObjectivesThe accurate prediction of post-hepatectomy early recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial for decision-making regarding postoperative adjuvant treatment and monitoring. We aimed to explore the feasibility of deep learning (DL) features derived from gadoxetate disodium (Gd-EOB-DTPA) MRI, qualitative features, and clinical variables for predicting early recurrence.MethodsIn this bicentric study, 285 patients with HCC who underwent Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI before resection were divided into training (n = 195) and validation (n = 90) sets. DL features were extracted from contrast-enhanced MRI images using VGGNet-19. Three feature selection methods and five classification methods were combined for DL signature construction. Subsequently, an mp-MR DL signature fused with multiphase DL signatures of contrast-enhanced images was constructed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify early recurrence risk factors including mp-MR DL signature, microvascular invasion (MVI), and tumor number. A DL nomogram was built by incorporating deep features and significant clinical variables to achieve early recurrence prediction.ResultsMVI (p = 0.039), tumor number (p = 0.001), and mp-MR DL signature (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for early recurrence. The DL nomogram outperformed the clinical nomogram in the training set (AUC: 0.949 vs. 0.751; p < 0.001) and validation set (AUC: 0.909 vs. 0.715; p = 0.002). Excellent DL nomogram calibration was achieved in both training and validation sets. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical usefulness of DL nomogram.ConclusionThe proposed DL nomogram was superior to the clinical nomogram in predicting early recurrence for HCC patients after hepatectomy.Key Points• Deep learning signature based on Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI was the predominant independent predictor of early recurrence for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy.• Deep learning nomogram based on clinical factors and Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI features is promising for predicting early recurrence of HCC.• Deep learning nomogram outperformed the conventional clinical nomogram in predicting early recurrence.

Serum exosomal and serum glypican-1 are associated with early recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

BackgroundThe diagnostic performance and prognostic value of serum exosomal glypican 1 (GPC-1) in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remain controversial. In this study, we detected serum exosomal GPC-1 using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and determined whether it serves as a predictor of diagnosis and recurrence for early-stage PDAC.MethodsSerum samples were obtained from patients with 50 PDAC, 6 benign pancreatic tumor (BPT), or 9 chronic pancreatitis (CP) and 50 healthy controls (HCs). Serum exosomes were isolated using an exosome isolation kit. Exosomal and serum GPC-1 levels were measured using ELISA. The freeze–thaw process was carried out to analyze the stability of GPC-1. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed to assess the diagnostic value of GPC-1. Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic value of GPC-1.ResultsThe average concentrations of serum exosomal and serum GPC-1 were 1.5 and 0.8 ng/ml, respectively. GPC-1 expression levels were stable under repeated freezing and thawing (d1-5 freeze–thaw cycles vs. d0 P > 0.05). Serum exosomal and serum GPC-1 were significantly elevated in patients with PDAC compared with HCs (P < 0.0001) but were slightly higher compared with that in patients with CP and BPT (P > 0.05). The expression levels of exosomal and serum GPC-1 were elevated 5 days after surgery in patients with PDAC, CP, and BPT (P < 0.05). Patients with high levels of exosomal and serum GPC-1 had a shorter relapse-free survival (RFS) (P = 0.006, and P = 0.010). Multivariate analyses showed that serum exosomal and serum GPC-1 were independent prognostic indicators for early RFS (P = 0.008, and P = 0.041).ConclusionELISA is an effective and sensitive method to detect exosomal and serum GPC-1. The detection of GPC-1 was stable under repeated freezing and thawing cycles and could distinguish early-stage PDAC from HCs but not CP and BPT. Exosomal and serum GPC-1 may be good independent predictors of early recurrence in early-stage PDAC.

Serum periostin as a predictor of early recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation

Catheter ablation is an effective method of rhythm therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). AF recurrence is a common problem after catheter ablation. The aim of this study was to investigate influence factors of early recurrence after catheter ablation for AF. One hundred and three consecutive patients with AF were enrolled and underwent catheter ablation. Venous blood (Marked as A) was collected before ablation and left atrial blood (Marked as B) was collected after successful atrial septal puncture to detect serum periostin. After 3months of follow-up, statistical analysis was made based on the recurrence of AF. 27 (26.2%) patients had a recurrence of atrial arrhythmia after catheter ablation. Patients with recurrent atrial arrhythmia had a larger left atrial volume (162.31 ± 47.76 vs. 141.98 ± 41.64,p = 0.039), and higher serum periostin levels (periostin A. 99.71 ± 16.475 vs. 90.36 ± 13.63, p = 0.005; periostin B. 103.95 ± 13.09 vs. 94.46 ± 15.85, p = 0.006) compared with the non-recurrent group. The numbers of patients with left atrial low-voltage areas (LVAs) were more in the recurrence group (p < 0.001). Left atrial volume, serum periostin and left atrial LVAs were included in univariate and multivariate COX regression analysis. It showed that left atrial LVAs (HR3.81; 95% CI 1.54 to 9.44; p = 0.004) and serum periostin A (HR1.07; 95% CI 1.02 to1.13; p = 0.008) were the independent predictors of AF recurrence. The cut-off value of serum periostin A was 87.95ng/ ml (AUC, 0.681; sensitivity 88.9% and specificity 53.9%). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the recurrence rate of AF was higher in patients with left atrial LVAs and higher serum periostin. The venous serum periostin level and left atrial LVAs were independent predictors of early recurrence of AF after catheter ablation.

A Predictive Nomogram of Early Recurrence for Patients with AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma Underwent Curative Resection.

Background: Alpha-fetoprotein-negative (<20 ng/mL) hepatocellular carcinoma (AFP-NHCC) cannot be easily diagnosed in clinical practice, which may affect early treatment and prognosis. Furthermore, there are no reliable tools for the prediction of AFP-NHCC early recurrence that have been developed currently. The objective of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for AFP-NHCC and construct an individual prediction nomogram of early recurrence of these patients who underwent curative resection. Methods: A retrospective study of 199 patients with AFP-NHCC who had undergone curative resection and another 231 patients with AFP-positive HCC were included in case-controlled analyses. All AFP-NHCC patients were randomly divided into training and validation datasets at a ratio of 7:3. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were applied to identify the risk factors, based on which the predictive nomogram of early recurrence was constructed in the training dataset. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance and discriminative ability of the nomogram, and the results were validated in the validation dataset. Results: Compared to AFP-positive patients, the AFP-negative group with lower values of laboratory parameters, lower tumor aggressiveness, and less malignant magnetic resonance (MR) imaging features. AST (HR = 2.200, p = 0.009), tumor capsule (HR = 0.392, p = 0.017), rim enhancement (HR = 2.825, p = 0.002) and TTPVI (HR = 5.511, p < 0.001) were independent predictors for early recurrence of AFP-NHCC patients. The nomogram integrated these independent predictors and achieved better predictive performance with AUCs of 0.89 and 0.85 in the training and validation datasets, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis both demonstrated better predictive efficacy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. Conclusions: The nomogram based on the multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis presented accurate individual prediction for early recurrence of AFP-NHCC patients after surgery. This nomogram could assist physicians in personalized treatment decision-making for patients with AFP-NHCC.

It is the lymph node ratio that determines survival and recurrence patterns in resected distal cholangiocarcinoma. A multicenter international study

BackgroundDistal cholangiocarcinoma (dCC) is still associated with a poor overall survival (OS). This study aims to investigate the impact of novel prognostic scores in comparison with more traditional ones. MethodsMulticentric retrospective analysis of patients who underwent a pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) for dCC. An unadjusted analysis was used to identify predictors of decreased survival. Significant variables were introduced in a multivariable model that assessed OS, recurrence-free survival (RFS), early recurrence (defined as a recurrence within the first 12 months from the PD), local and distant recurrence. Prognostic scores evaluated included the TNM staging system, the lymph-node ratio (LNR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the systemic inflammation index (SII). ResultsThe study included 232 patients with resected dCC. The optimal cut-off value for LNR was 15% (LNR15). On the unadjusted analysis T stage (p = 0.012), N stage (p < 0.001), LNR15 (p < 0.001), grade (p < 0.001), perineural invasion (p < 0.001) and the R1 status of resection margin (p = 0.001) accounted for the decreased OS. No significant association between survival and PLR, NLR and SII were found.On the multivariable analysis only LNR15, perineural invasion and R1 were independent predictors of decreased RFS (p = 0.003, p = 0.021 and p = 0.009, respectively) and OS (p = 0.001, p = 0.016 and p = 0.013, respectively). Additionally, LNR15 was an independent predictor of early recurrence (p = 0.003) and both LNR15 and R1 were associated with increased local (p < 0.001 and p = 0.010) and distant recurrence (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003). ConclusionsLNR15 is an independent predictor of DFS, OS, early, local and distal recurrence, combined with the status of the resection margin and perineural invasion.

SUVmax to tumor perimeter distance: a robust radiomics prognostic biomarker in resectable non-small cell lung cancer patients.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of novel geometric variables obtained from pre-treatment [18F]FDG PET/CT with respect to classical ones in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Retrospective study including stage I-III NSCLC patients with baseline [18F]FDG PET/CT. Clinical, histopathologic, and metabolic parameters were obtained. After tumor segmentation, SUV and volume-based variables, global texture, sphericity, and two novel parameters, normalized SUVpeak to centroid distance (nSCD) and normalized SUVmax to perimeter distance (nSPD), were obtained. Early recurrence (ER) and short-term mortality (STM) were used as end points. Univariate logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression with respect to ER and STM were performed. A cohort of 173 patients was selected. ER was detected in 49/104 of patients with recurrent disease. Additionally, 100 patients died and 53 had STM. Age, pathologic lymphovascular invasion, lymph nodal infiltration, TNM stage, nSCD, and nSPD were associated with ER, although only age (aOR = 1.06, p = 0.002), pathologic lymphovascular invasion (aOR = 3.40, p = 0.022), and nSPD (aOR = 0.02, p = 0.018) were significant independent predictors of ER in multivariate analysis. Age, lymph nodal infiltration, TNM stage, nSCD, and nSPD were predictors of STM. Age (aOR = 1.05, p = 0.006), lymph nodal infiltration (aOR = 2.72, p = 0.005), and nSPD (aOR = 0.03, p = 0.022) were significantly associated with STM in multivariate analysis. Coefficient of variation (COV) and SUVmean/SUVmax ratio did not show significant predictive value with respect to ER or STM. The geometric variables, nSCD and nSPD, are robust biomarkers of the poorest outcome prediction of patients with NSCLC with respect to classical PET variables. • In NSCLC patients, it is crucial to find prognostic parameters sinceTNM system alone cannot explain the variation in lung cancer survival. • Age, lymphovascular invasion, lymph nodal infiltration, and metabolic geometrical parameters were useful as prognostic parameters. • The displacement grade of the highest point of metabolic activity towards the periphery assessed by geometric variables obtained from [18F]FDGPET/CT was a robust biomarker of the poorest outcome prediction of patients with NSCLC.

Nomogram Incorporating Preoperative Testing Markers for the prediction of Early Recurrence for Colorectal Liver Metastases with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy followed by Hepatectomy.

Background: This study aims to develop a nomogram to predict early recurrence in colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) followed by hepatectomy.Methods: The primary cohort included 144 CRLM patients treated in the same ward, and 40 CRLM patients from another ward were allocated to the validation cohort. The minimum p value method was used to find the optimal cut-off point for early recurrence. Predictors of early recurrence were determined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. Nomogram for early recurrence was constructed and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate its performance.Results: The optimal cut-off point for the definition of early recurrence was 11 months. Patients with early recurrence have significantly worse post-recurrence survival (median 23.5 months vs. 35.7 months, P=0.012) and overall survival (median 31.8 months vs. 59.0 months, P<0.001). Preoperative creatinine ≥ 63.5 µmol/L (P=0.035), synchronous liver metastasis (P=0.030), non-R0 resection (P=0.044), postoperative complications (P=0.009) and NAC Cycles ≥ 4 (P=0.003) were independent predictors of early recurrence. A nomogram with favorable discrimination (AUROC of 0.754 in the primary cohort and 0.882 in the validation cohort) and calibration was constructed to predict early recurrence. The DCA results also indicated good clinical applicability.Conclusions: This is the first study to identify elevated preoperative creatinine as an independent predictor of early recurrence of CRLM treated with hepatectomy after NAC. This study developed a nomogram that particularly incorporated preoperative creatinine to predict early recurrence in CRLM patients receiving NAC to aid clinical decision-making.