Independent Predictor Of Death Research Articles

Outcomes in Cardiac Transthyretin Amyloidosis and Association With New York Heart Association Class: Real-World Data.

Results from ATTR-ACT (Safety and Efficacy of Tafamidis in Patients With Transthyretin Cardiomyopathy)indicate that tafamidis prolongs survival and reduces cardiovascular hospitalizations in cardiac transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR-CA). However, real-world data supporting these findings are scarce. Thus, we sought to characterize the clinical outcome of patients with ATTR-CA treated with tafamidis in a real-world setting and assess the prognostic role of the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification. We conducted a retrospective observational study, enrolling a consecutive sample of patients with ATTR-CA (wild-type or variant) treated with tafamidis. Clinical outcome was tracked through follow-up visits or phone calls. Primary outcomes were death and major adverse cardiac events (MACE), a composite end point of death and hospitalizations for acute cardiac decompensation, myocardial infarction, severe arrythmias, or stroke. Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated overall and MACE-free survival including NYHA subgroups (NYHA I/II versus NYHA III). One hundred sixty-seven patients with ATTR-CA (94.6% wild-type) were enrolled and followed for a median of 539 [323-869] days. Median overall survival was not reached. Estimated 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year overall survival among the whole cohort was 93.5%, 85.9%, and 70.2%, respectively. Overall survival was higher in the NYHA I/II subgroup (P=0.002). Median MACE-free survival time was 1082 (95% CI, 962-1202) days. MACE-free survival was higher in the NYHA I/II subgroup (P<0.001). With respective hazard ratios of 5.85 (95% CI, 1.48-23.18; P=0.012) and 3.95 (95% CI, 1.99-7.84; P<0.001), NYHA III was an independent predictor of death and MACE. Treatment of ATTR-CA with tafamidis led to substantial improvements of clinical outcome. NYHA classification at treatment initiation is a reliable tool to provide patients with individualized prognostic information.

Temporal trends and prognostic impact of reperfusion modalities in Tunisian patients presenting with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: A 20-year analysis.

With the advent of reperfusion therapies, management of patients presenting with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has witnessed significant changes during the last decades. We sought to analyze temporal trends in reperfusion modalities and their prognostic impact over a 20-year period in patients presenting with STEMI the Monastir region (Tunisia). Patients from Monastir region presenting for STEMI were included in a 20-year (1998-2017) single center registry. Reperfusion modalities, early and long-term outcomes were studied according to five four-year periods. Out of 1734 patients with STEMI, 1370 (79%) were male and mean age was 60.3 ± 12.7 years. From 1998 to 2017, primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) use significantly increased from 12.5% to 48.3% while fibrinolysis use significantly decreased from 47.6% to 31.7% (p<0.001 for both). Reperfusion delays for either fibrinolysis or primary PCI significantly decreased during the study period. In-hospital mortality significantly decreased from 13.7% during Period 1 (1998-2001) to 5.4% during Period 5 (2014-2017), (p=0.03). Long-term mortality rate (mean follow-up 49.4 ± 30.7 months) significantly decreased from 25.3% to 13% (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, age, female gender, anemia on-presentation, akinesia/dyskinesia of the infarcted area and use of plain old balloon angioplasty were independent predictors of death at long-term follow-up whereas primary PCI use and preinfaction angina were predictors of long-term survival. In this long-term follow-up study of Tunisian patients presenting for STEMI, reperfusion delays decreased concomitantly to an increase in primary PCI use. In-hospital and long-term mortality rates significantly decreased from 1998 to 2017.

Determining prognostic indicator for anticoagulant therapy in sepsis-induced disseminated intravascular coagulation

BackgroundThere is no reliable indicator that can assess the treatment effect of anticoagulant therapy for sepsis-associated disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) in the short term. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a prognostic index identifying 28-day mortality in septic DIC patients treated with antithrombin concentrate after a 3-day treatment.MethodsThe cohort for derivation was established utilizing the dataset from post-marketing surveys, while the cohort for validation was acquired from Japan’s nationwide sepsis registry data. Through univariate and multivariate analyses, variables that were independently associated with 28-day mortality were identified within the derivation cohort. Risk variables were then assigned a weighted score based on the risk prediction function, leading to the development of a composite index. Subsequently, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). 28-day survival was compared by Kaplan–Meier analysis.ResultsIn the derivation cohort, 252 (16.9%) of the 1492 patients deceased within 28 days. Multivariable analysis identified DIC resolution (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.22–0.45, P < 0.0001) and rate of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score change (HR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.36–0.50, P < 0.0001) were identified as independent predictors of death. The composite prognostic index (CPI) was constructed as DIC resolution (yes: 1, no: 0) + rate of SOFA score change (Day 0 SOFA score–Day 3 SOFA score/Day 0 SOFA score). When the CPI is higher than 0.19, the patients are judged to survive. Concerning the derivation cohort, AUROC for survival was 0.76. As for the validation cohort, AUROC was 0.71.ConclusionCPI can predict the 28-day survival of septic patients with DIC who have undergone antithrombin treatment. It is simple and easy to calculate and will be useful in practice.

Ten-Year Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Simultaneous Coronary and Renal Angiography-Does Renal Artery Stenosis Matter?

Background: We aimed to characterize the population of consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography with simultaneous renal artery angiography and assess prognostic factors at a 10 year follow-up. Methods: The KORONEF study was a prospective, single-center, observational, and descriptive study with 492 patients included. We analyzed several baseline demographics, clinical and periprocedural characteristics, and laboratory data, and we assessed the results of coronary angiography and renal artery angiography. Results: The study population consisted of 37.2% women, and the mean age was 64.4 ± 9.9 years (min. 30 years, max. 89 years). Angiography revealed significant renal artery stenosis (RAS) in 35 (7.1%) patients. Among patients with significant RAS (≥50%), we observed more women (57.1% vs. 35.7%, p = 0.011), and patients were older (69.1 ± 10.4 years vs. 64.0 ± 9.7 years, p = 0.005). In the whole population, all-cause death was reported in 29.9% of patients, myocardial infarction (MI) rate-in 11.8%, and stroke-in 4.9%. In the multivariable analysis, independent predictors of death were age 65-75 years (HR 2.88), age > 75 years (HR 8.07), diabetes (HR 1.59), previous MI (HR 1.64), chronic kidney disease (HR 2.22), unstable angina (HR 0.37), and left ventricular ejection fraction > 60% (HR 0.43). Conclusions: Over a 10 year follow-up, the all-cause death rate was 29.9%, showing no statistically significant differences between patients with and without significant RAS.

Clinical significance and prognostic value of right bundle branch block in permanent pacemaker patients.

In patients undergoing pacemaker implantation with no prior history of heart failure (HF), the presence of left bundle branch block (LBBB) has been identified as an independent predictor of HF-related death or hospitalization, while the prognostic significance of right bundle branch block (RBBB) remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the long-term risk of all-cause mortality in patients with a standard indication for permanent pacing and normal or moderately depressed left ventricular function when RBBB is detected at the time of implantation. We retrospectively enrolled 1348 consecutive patients who had undergone single- or dual-chamber pacemaker implantation at the study center, from January 1990 to December 2022. Patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% or a prior diagnosis of HF were excluded. The baseline 12-lead electrocardiogram revealed an RBBB in 241 (18%) and an LBBB in 98 (7%) patients. During a median follow-up of 65 [25th-75th percentile: 32-117] months, 704 (52%) patients died. The combined endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization was reached by 173 (13%) patients. On multivariate analysis, RBBB was confirmed as an independent predictor of death [hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09-1.63; P = 0.005]. However, when considering the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization, this endpoint was independently associated with LBBB (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.38-3.29; P < 0.001), but not with RBBB. In patients with standard pacemaker indications and normal or moderately depressed left ventricular function, the presence of basal RBBB was an independent predictor of mortality. However, it was not associated with the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization.

Clinical significance and prognostic value of right bundle branch block in permanent pacemaker patients

Abstract Aim In patients undergoing pacemaker implantation with no prior history of heart failure (HF), the presence of left bundle branch block (LBBB) has been identified as an independent predictor of HF-related death or hospitalization, while the prognostic significance of right bundle branch block (RBBB) remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the long-term risk of all-cause mortality in patients with a standard indication for permanent pacing and normal or moderately depressed left ventricular function when RBBB is detected at the time of implantation. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 1348 consecutive patients who had undergone single- or dual-chamber pacemaker implantation at the study center, from January 1990 to December 2022. Patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% or a prior diagnosis of HF were excluded. Results The baseline 12-lead electrocardiogram revealed an RBBB in 241 (18%) and an LBBB in 98 (7%) patients. During a median follow-up of 65 [25th-75th percentile: 32-117] months, 704 (52%) patients died. The combined endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization was reached by 173 (13%) patients. On multivariate analysis, RBBB was confirmed as independent predictor of death (Hazard Ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09–1.63; P=0.005). However, when considering the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization, this endpoint was independently associated with LBBB (Hazard Ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.38–3.29; P&amp;lt;0.001), but not with RBBB. Conclusions In patients with standard pacemaker indications and normal or moderately depressed LV function the presence of basal RBBB was an independent predictor of mortality. However, it was not associated with the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization.Time to event

Evaluation of CHA2DS2VASc scale as a tool of prognosis of death in transvenous lead extraction patients in long term follow-up

Abstract Background CHA2DS2VASc scale is commonly used to risk stratification of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients. With the exception of female gender, the remaining components of the scale are also risk factors for long-term prognosis. Aim Assessment of the usefulness of the CHA2DS2VASc scale for predicting the short and long term risk of death in the population of transvenous lead extraction (TLE) patients. Methods Retrospective analysis of data of 3822 consecutive patients underwent TLE followed by to 6239 days: median (Q1-Q3) 1846 (852 – 3146). Results The strong corelation between number of CHA2DS2VASc scale points and mortality was detected both in 30-days, 1-year, 3-year and all time of follow-up (Spearman r for all follow-up = 0.983, p&amp;lt;0.001). In all TLE population multivariable Cox regression shown that number of points of CHA2DS2VASc scale is independent predictor of death [HR=1.181; 95%CI (1.104-1.264), p&amp;lt;0.001], alongside Carlson index, atrial fibrillation, infective TLE indications and renal dysfunction. A scale value higher by 1 point is associated with an increase in the risk of death by 18.1%. In female group the risk increased by 37.5% [HR=1.375; 95%CI(1.193-1.584), p&amp;lt;0.001)] and in male group the risk increased by 22.00% [HR=1.220; 95%CI 1.110-1.342), p&amp;lt;0.001)]. Conclusion The commonly known stroke risk CHA2DS2VASc scale may be a useful tool for predicting the risk of death both in short and long-term observation in the group of patients after transvenous lead extraction.Table 1

Review of a large trauma registry in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: insights into prehospital care and provider training for trauma quality improvement

BackgroundInjury is a major cause of death and disability in Ethiopia. ALERT Hospital, one of only three designated trauma centers in the country, has employed a basic trauma registry since...

Body mass index and long-term survival following acute pulmonary embolism: insights from machine learning models

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements None. Introduction Body mass index (BMI) has been associated with long-term survival in the setting of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) [1,2]. The non-linear pattern of this association proves to be challenging for frequentist statistical analyses. Contemporary machine learning models offer superior handling capabilities of datasets with non-linear data distributions. Purpose To examine the predictive power of BMI expressed as a continuous variable in a dataset of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning framework. Methods All consecutive patients with confirmed PE admitted to the two tertiary teaching Clinical Hospitals in the metropolitan area from November 2013 until November 2018 were included in the study. The diagnosis was established by multislice computed tomography angiography. Machine learning models were investigated using the LightGBM variant of XGBoost. We allocated 80% of the dataset for model training and the remaining 20% for testing. Two models were tested: (1) a model with 20 variables tailored according to the Cox proportional hazards model in the initial publication; (2) a model with 11 independent predictors of outcome. Results The study population is described in detail in previous publications [1,2]. In brief, a total of 761 patients were included in the study. The population was predominantly female (57.4%), aged 73 (61-81). The median overall follow-up was 675 days (114-1331). There were 335 (44.0%) cases of death recorded at follow-up. A Cox proportional hazards model with 19 covariates significantly predicted death during follow-up (χ2 = 595.5, p&amp;lt;0.001). The first BMI quartile was an independent predictor of death (hazard ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.31-2.10). However, when expressed as a continuous variable, BMI failed to enter the model. In both XGBoost models, BMI expressed as a continuous variable proved to be a feature with high predictive power, second only to pulmonary embolism severity index score (Figure 1 and 2). The models showed high accuracy, with an area under curve of 0.840 and 0.864 respectively. Conclusion In the XGBoost analysis, a machine learning framework with superior handling of non-linear data, BMI expressed as a continuous variable emerged as the second strongest predictor of outcome among 761 PE patients.Figure 1Figure 2

Dynamics of the State of Arterial Stiffness as a Possible Pathophysiological Factor of Unfavorable Long-Term Prognosis in Patients after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

Patients with coronary artery disease (n = 251) in whom CAVI was assessed using the VaSera VS-1000 device before and one year after CABG. Groups with improved CAVI or worsened CAVI were identified. We assessed the following events at follow-up: all-causes death, myocardial infarction, and stroke/transient ischemic attack. All-causes death was significantly more common in the group with worsened CAVI (27.6%) than in the group with CAVI improvement (14.8%; p = 0.029). Patients with worsened CAVI were more likely to have MACE, accounting for 42.2% cases, compared with patients with CAVI improvement, who accounted for 24.5%; p = 0.008. Worsened CAVI (p = 0.024), number of shunts (p = 0.006), and the presence of carotid stenosis (p = 0.051) were independent predictors of death from all causes at 10-year follow-up after CABG. The presence of carotid stenosis (p = 0.002) and the group with worsened CAVI after a year (p = 0.008) were independent predictors of the development of the combined endpoint during long-term follow-up. Patients with worsening CAVI one year after CABG have a poorer prognosis at long-term follow-up than patients with improved CAVI. Future research would be useful to identify the most effective interventions to improve CAVI and correspondingly improve prognosis.

Prognostic factors in patients with heart failure and sarcopenia: an observational retrospective study

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) prevalence increases with age, and sarcopenia is a poor prognostic factor in patients with HF. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics and prognostic factors in patients with HF and sarcopenia.ResultsWe retrospectively reviewed 256 consecutive patients admitted to our hospital for HF between May 2018 and May 2021, underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and were diagnosed with sarcopenia. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The prognoses and characteristics were evaluated and compared between patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 50% (reduced LVEF, HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF]) and those with LVEF ≥ 50% (preserved LVEF, HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF]). 83 (32%) and 173 (68%) patients had HFrEF and HFpEF, respectively. The HFrEF group had fewer women, lower hypertension rates, higher ischemic heart disease rates, and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels than did the HFpEF group. Kaplan–Meier analysis for all-cause death showed that the HFrEF group had a significantly worse prognosis than the HFpEF group [log-rank p = 0.002].ConclusionsIn patients with HF and sarcopenia, older age, higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, BNP levels, and reduced LVEF were independent predictors of death after evaluation. During the treatment of patients with HF and sarcopenia, it is necessary to manage treatment with close attention to BNP and LVEF.

Bioactive adrenomedullin as a marker of congestion and disease progression in patients with a systemic right ventricle

BackgroundAdults with a systemic right ventricle (sRV) are at a high risk for heart failure (HF) hospitalization and mortality. Bioactive adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) has been proposed as a marker of congestion and prognosis in patients with cardiovascular disease. We aimed to evaluate the association between bio-ADM and mortality and HF events in sRV patients. MethodsPlasma bio-ADM was measured by a novel immunoassay in plasma of 85 sRV patients. A composite endpoint of all-cause mortality and HF events was used as outcome. HF events were defined as onset or progression of HF signs or symptoms requiring hospitalization, initiation or intensification of therapy. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between bio-ADM and outcome. ResultsThe mean age of the patients was 37 ± 9 years and 65% were male. Patients with higher plasma bio-ADM concentrations were more often treated with diuretics (p = 0.007), possibly because of signs and/or symptoms of congestion. During a median follow-up of 10.2 years, 33.7% of the patients reached the endpoint. After adjustment for age and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro BNP), higher bio-ADM levels were associated with a higher risk of the composite endpoint (hazard ratio: 2.09 [95%-confidence interval: 1.15–3.78]). Bio-ADM improved risk prediction when added to NT-proBNP and age (C-statistic improved from 0.748 to 0.776 [p = 0.03]). ConclusionsBio-ADM can be considered as a marker of congestion and independent predictor of death and HF events in adult patients with a sRV. Moreover, in terms of risk prediction, it has added value to NT-proBNP.

Systemic inflammation score as a predictor of death within one year after esophagectomy.

After radical resection for esophageal cancer, death within 1year of surgery can occur due both to recurrence and to other diseases, even after postoperative complications have been overcome. This study identified risk factors for early death within 1year of esophagectomy for reasons other than death in hospital in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer or esophagogastric junction cancer. We reviewed 366 patients who underwent esophagectomy without adjuvant treatment between January 2009 and July 2022 for thoracic esophageal cancer or esophagogastric junction cancer. Patients who died within 1year excluding in-hospital death were compared with those who did not. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of death within 1year after surgery. Death within 1year occurred in 32 of 366 patients, 24 from primary disease and 8 from other diseases. Deaths within 1year were significantly older than the other cases, had significantly lower % vital capacity (%VC), and occurred significantly more often in cases in advanced stages of disease. In a multivariable analysis, a systemic inflammation score (SIS) based on serum albumin level and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio was identified as an independent predictor of death within 1year. As SIS increased, %VC decreased significantly, and CRP level and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio increased significantly. There was no relationship between SIS and pN. Death within 1year increased as SIS increased (p = 0.001 for trend). SIS assessment undertaken before beginning esophageal cancer treatment is a useful predictor of death within 1year of surgery.

Level One Trauma Center Proliferation May Worsen Patient Outcomes.

From 2013 to 2020, Arizona state trauma system expanded from seven to thirteen level 1 trauma centers (L1TCs). This study utilized the state trauma registry to analyze the effect of L1TC proliferation on patient outcomes. Adult patients age≥15 in the state trauma registry from 2007-2020 were queried for demographic, injury, and outcome variables. These variables were compared across the 2 time periods: 2007-2012 as pre-proliferation (PRE) and 2013-2020 as post-proliferation (POST). Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess independent predictors of mortality. Subgroup analyses were done for Injury Severity Score (ISS)≥15, age≥65, and trauma mechanisms. A total of 482,896 trauma patients were included in this study. 40% were female, 29% were geriatric patients, and 8.6% sustained penetrating trauma. The median ISS was 4. Inpatient mortality overall was 2.7%. POST consisted of more female, geriatric, and blunt trauma patients (P < .001). Both periods had similar median ISS. POST had more interfacility transfers (14.5% vs 10.3%, P < .001). Inpatient, unadjusted mortality decreased by .5% in POST (P < .001). After adjusting for age, gender, ISS, and trauma mechanism, being in POST was predictive of death (OR: 1.4, CI:1.3-1.5, P < .001). This was consistent across all subgroups except for geriatric subgroup, which there was no significant correlation. Despite advances in trauma care and almost doubling of L1TCs, POST had minimal reduction of unadjusted mortality and was an independent predictor of death. Results suggest increasing number of L1TCs alone may not improve mortality. Alternative approaches should be sought with future regional trauma system design and implementation.

Rates of operative intervention and in-hospital mortality following subarachnoid hemorrhage in patients with COVID-19.

COVID-19 had massive effects on the healthcare system and multifactorial implications for the management of intensive care unit and cerebrovascular patients. This study aimed to assess the effect of COVID-19 on the outcomes of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used to identify patients with nontraumatic SAH (ICD-10 code I60.x). Patients with nonaneurysmal cerebrovascular malformations or traumatic intracranial injuries were excluded. Only patients managed from April to December 2020 were included in the study given the availability of an ICD-10 code for COVID-19. Data on sociodemographic factors, hospital characteristics, comorbidities, NIS SAH Severity Score (NIS-SSS), surgical treatment, and death were acquired. Multivariable analysis was used to assess predictors of both surgical intervention and in-hospital mortality. In total, 6984 patients met the study criteria, 359 (5.1%) of whom had COVID-19. Those with COVID-19 were more likely to be younger and male and had a higher All Patient Refined Diagnosis-Related Groups illness severity subclass, and NIS-SSS. Moreover, patients with COVID-19 were less likely to undergo surgery (10.0% vs 23.6%, OR 0.35, p < 0.0001) and had significantly higher mortality rates (48.2% vs 22.7%, p < 0.0001). When controlling for other variables, COVID-19 was an independent predictor of death (OR 1.67, p = 0.0002). Aneurysm surgery was performed in 1597 patients (317 open and 1280 endovascular procedures). There was no difference between the cohorts positive and negative for COVID-19 in terms of time to surgery or type of surgery. COVID-19 had significant impacts on patients with nontraumatic SAH. Specifically, patients with COVID-19 were significantly less likely to undergo surgery and had higher in-hospital mortality rates; however, for patients who did undergo procedural intervention, there was no significant difference in the type of intervention. Multiple factors, from medical acuity to healthcare system limitations, may contribute to these findings. Further retrospective research is needed to identify both specific causes of lower intervention rates and other potential nonaneurysmal causes of SAH in patients with COVID-19.

Impact of dementia on 30-, 180-, and 365-day mortality during the first pandemic wave in older adults seen in spanish emergency departments diagnosed with or without COVID-19

Objectives To assess whether dementia is an independent predictor of death after a hospital emergency department (ED) visit by older adults with or without a COVID-19 diagnosis during the first pandemic wave. Method We used data from the EDEN-Covid (Emergency Department and Elderly Needs during Covid) cohort formed by all patients ≥65 years seen in 52 Spanish EDs from March 30 to April 5, 2020. The association of prior history of dementia with mortality at 30, 180 and 365 d was evaluated in the overall sample and according to a COVID-19 or non COVID diagnosis. Results We included 9,770 patients aged 78.7 ± 8.3 years, 51.1% men, 1513 (15.5%) subjects with prior history of dementia and 3055 (31.3%) with COVID-19 diagnosis. 1399 patients (14.3%) died at 30 d, 2008 (20.6%) at 180 days and 2456 (25.1%) at 365 d. The adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) for age, sex, comorbidity, disability and diagnosis for death associated with dementia were 1.16 (95% CI 1.01–1.34) at 30 d; 1.15 at 180 d (95% CI 1.03–1.30) and 1.19 at 365 d (95% CI 1.07–1.32), p < .001. In patients with COVID-19, the aHR were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.04–1.52) at 30 days; 1.29 at 180 d (95% CI: 1.09–1.53) and 1.35 at 365 d (95% CI: 1.15–1.58). Conclusion Dementia in older adults attending Spanish EDs during the first pandemic wave was independently associated with 30-, 180- and 365-day mortality. This impact was lower when adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity and disability, and was greater in patients diagnosed with COVID-19.

VARIOUS ASPECTS OF PERCUTANEOUS CORONARY INTERVENTIONS AS PREDICTORS OF DEATH IN MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION AND CORONARY MICROVASCULAR OBSTRUCTION (NO-REFLOW)

HighlightsThe review analyzed the role of various preoperative indicators as predictors of long-term mortality in patients with myocardial infarction and coronary microvascular obstruction (no-reflow) that developed during percutaneous coronary intervention. As a result of a multifactorial analysis, taking into account the confounders available for evaluation, we have found that predilation serves as an independent predictor of death within two years. AbstractAim. To evaluate the role of various aspects of percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) as predictors of long-term death in myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary microvascular obstruction (CMVO, no-reflow).Methods. The unmatched case-control study included 232 patients with type 1 MI and CMVO developed during PCI. CMVO criteria were as follows: TIMI flow grade &lt;3, Myocardial blush grade &lt;2, ST segment resolution after PCI &lt;70%. The “cases” group consisted of 54 (23.3%) patients who died within the next two years, the “controls” group consisted of 178 (76.7%) patients who survived. The analysis included the following indicators: predilation, high-pressure balloon post-dilation, vacuum assisted manual thromboaspiration, intra-aortic balloon pump, intracoronary administration of isosorbide dinitrate and verapamil hydrochloride, glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors and “potent” p2y12 inhibitors usage, bare-metal stents, stent implantation with exceeded rated burst pressure, 3 or more stents usage, PCI on more than one artery, the ratio of contrast agent volume to glomerular filtration rate (GFR) &gt;3.0. A univariate comparative analysis of the groups regarding PCI aspects and potential confounders was performed (Mann-Whitney, Fisher). To control the confounders, a multivariate analysis was carried out (logistic regression).Results. Differences were obtained for the following indicators: “predilation” – in 51 (94%) patients in the “cases” group and in 139 (78%) in the “control” group, p-value = 0.005; “intra-aortic balloon pump” – in 9 (17%) and 7 (4%) patients respectively, p-value = 0.003; “the ratio of contrast agent volume to GFR &gt;3.0” – in 26 (48%) and 48 (27%) patients, p-value = 0.005. Multivariate analysis revealed that only predilation was an independent predictor of death within two years – odds ratio 7.38 (95% confidence interval 1.70–49.04, p-value = 0.005).Conclusion. Predilation of the infarct-related coronary artery is an independent predictor of death within two years in MI patients who develop CMVO during PCI.

Mortality of the Danish Nationwide AQP4 Antibody-Seropositive Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder Patient Cohort.

We aimed to evaluate the mortality of patients with AQP4 antibody-seropositive (AQP4-Ab+) neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) in Denmark compared with that in the general population. We identified patients with AQP4-Ab+ NMOSD fulfilling the 2015 International Panel for Neuromyelitis Optica Diagnosis (IPND) criteria from multiple sources (laboratories and the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry). We obtained detailed information about patients from hospital records and about the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year from Statistics Denmark. We calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR), excess number of deaths per 1,000 person-years (EDR), and life expectancies compared with those of the matched general population. We examined predictive factors of mortality and the cause of death. Of 66 patients with AQP4-Ab+ NMOSD between 2008 and 2020, 15 died. Overall, the SMR was 2.54 (95% CI 1.47-4.09), and the EDR was 16.8 (95% CI 4.6-34.3). The median life expectancy for patients with AQP4-Ab+ NMOSD was 64.08 years (95% CI 53.02-83.9), compared with 83.07 years for the general population. Risk of death over time was increased in the patient population with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.22 (1.34-3.68; p = 0.002). The cause of death was directly related to NMOSD in 93% of the cases. The age at disease onset was an independent predictor of death (HR 1.042; 95% CI 1.006-1.079; p = 0.02). AQP4-Ab+ NMOSD is associated with increased mortality and shorter life expectancy compared with that in the general population, underlining the need for highly effective treatment approaches.

Bicavitary effusion in cats: retrospective analysis of signalment, clinical investigations, diagnosis and outcome.

The aim of this study was to describe the clinical and diagnostic findings and outcome of cats with bicavitary effusion presenting to a referral centre. Medical records of cats presenting with bicavitary effusion were identified and their history, physical examination findings, clinicopathological data, diagnostic imaging findings, aetiology of bicavitary effusions (cardiac disease, neoplasia, infectious disease, sterile inflammatory disease, severe hypoalbuminaemia, trauma, coagulopathy or 'open' if no definitive diagnosis was reached) and outcome were recorded. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of death in cats with bicavitary effusion. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated for survival analysis. In total, 103 cats with bicavitary effusion were included. Neoplasia and cardiac disease were the most common aetiologies of bicavitary effusion, in 21 (20.4%) and 20 (19.4%) cats, respectively, followed by infectious disease (n = 11, 10.7%), trauma (n = 13, 12.6%), hypoalbuminaemia (n = 6, 5.8%), sterile inflammatory disease (n = 4, 3.9%) and coagulopathy (n = 1, 1.0%). The median survival time for all cats with bicavitary effusion was 3 days. Cats with a neoplastic aetiology had a 2.03 times greater risk of death compared with cats in which no diagnosis was achieved. Neoplasia (P = 0.030) and pedigree breed status (P = 0.016) were independent predictors of death in the multivariable Cox regression model. This study highlights that bicavitary effusions in cats generally carry a guarded to poor prognosis, particularly if neoplasia is the underlying aetiology or if the cat is a pedigree breed. Cardiac disease appeared to be associated with a better prognosis, suggesting that assessment for congestive heart failure should be considered early when evaluating cats with bicavitary effusion. The prognosis for cats with feline infectious peritonitis is likely to be markedly improved by the advent of novel antiviral drugs, compared with the historical cohort of cats presented here.

Development and validation of modified Liaoning score for predicting the prognosis of liver cirrhosis: a retrospective, international multicenter, observational study

ABSTRACT Background Liaoning score has been developed and validated to predict the risk of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis. This study aimed to further modify the Liaoning score by combining clinical and laboratory parameters to predict the long-term outcome of cirrhotic patients. Methods First, 474 cirrhotic patients were retrospectively enrolled from Shenyang, China as the training cohort. Independent predictors for death were identified by competing risk analyses, and then a new prognostic model, called as modified Liaoning score, was developed. Its performance was externally validated at three centers from Fuzhou, China (n = 1944), Jinan, China (n = 485), and São Paulo, Brazil (n = 221). Results Age, total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin (ALB), serum creatinine (SCr), and Liaoning score were independently associated with death in the training cohort. Modified Liaoning score = 0.159×Liaoning score + 0.010×TBIL(µmol/L)+0.029×age(years)+0.011×SCr(µmol/L)-0.037×ALB(g/L). The area under curve of modified Liaoning score was 0.714 (95%CI = 0.655–0.773), which was higher than that of Child-Pugh score (0.707, 95%CI = 0.645–0.770), MELD score (0.687, 95%CI = 0.623–0.751), and Liaoning score (0.583, 95%CI = 0.513–0.654). A modified Liaoning score of ≥ 1.296 suggested a higher cumulative incidence of death in liver cirrhosis (p < 0.001). Modified Liaoning score still had the highest prognostic performance in Chinese and Brazilian validation cohorts. Conclusions Modified Liaoning score can be considered for predicting the long-term outcome of cirrhotic patients.