Independent Predictor Of 6-month Mortality Research Articles

Prognostic value of overhydration and bioelectrical impedance vector on short- and long-term outcomes in hospitalized patients with cancer

Water, an essential component of body composition, appears to be a significant predictor of adverse outcomes in clinical populations, despite being frequently underexplored. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and vector analysis (BIVA) are easy and cost-effective bedside tools for estimating body composition, particularly water content. Therefore, our study aimed to assess the impact of hydration and fluid status using both BIA and BIVA on outcomes in hospitalized patients with cancer. A prospective cohort study involving hospitalized individuals with cancer was conducted. Total body water (TBW) was estimated using BIA. Extracellular-water/TBW (ECW/TBW) and ECW/intracellular-water (ECW/ICW) ratios were calculated. BIVA ellipses vectors were constructed to enhance our analysis of hydration status. Participants were followed during their hospital stay and up to six months after discharge to assess outcomes, including in-hospital mortality, 6-month non-elective rehospitalization, and 6-month mortality. TBW, ECW/TBW, ECW/ICW ratios, and BIVA plots were not associated with non-elective rehospitalization during the follow-up period. However, TBW and an elevated ECW/ICW ratio were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.07 (1.01; 1.13) p=0.020; HR: 4.23 (1.69; 10.58) p=0.002]. Elevated ratios ECW/TBW and ECW/ICW were independent predictors of 6-month mortality [HR: 1.87 (1.10; 3.21) p=0.022; HR: 2.49 (1.37; 4.51) p=0.003]. BIVA vectors for in-hospital and 6-month mortality shifted significantly to the right, leading to cachexia and overhydration quadrants (p<0.05). Abnormalities related to overhydration were important predictors of short- and long-term mortality in hospitalized patients with cancer.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and its changes predict the 3-month outcome and mortality in acute ischemic stroke patients after intravenous thrombolysis.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been demonstrated as a prognostic inflammatory biomarker in ischemic stroke. The study aimed to investigate the association of NLR and its dynamic change with long-term outcome and mortality in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients who received intravenous thrombolysis (IVT). From a prospective cohort, AIS patients receiving IVT (alteplase, 0.9mg/kg) with complete NLR data were retrospectively screened. Based on 3-month modified Rankin scale score (mRS), patients were classified into good group (mRS 0-1) and poor outcome group (mRS 2-6), or survival group (mRS 0-5) and death group (mRS 6). Multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating curve were used to identify prognostic factors and their predictive powers. A total of 259 eligible patients were enrolled in our study. Logistic regression analysis showed that NLR at 24h (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.182), 12 days (aOR 1.218) after IVT was independent predictors of 3-month outcome with the AUC of 0.815, 0.820, respectively, whereas NLR at 24h (aOR 1.17), 12 days (aOR 1.252) after IVT and percentage changes of NLR between admission and 24h after IVT (aOR 1.214), and between admission and 12 days after IVT (aOR 1.233) were independent predictors of 3-month mortality with the AUCs of 0.86, 0.902, 0.814, and 0.855, respectively. The comprehensive report suggests that NLR and its dynamic changes are associated with 3-month outcome and mortality in AIS patients after IVT with good predictive powers.

Predictors of functional outcome after symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage complicating intravenous thrombolysis: results from the SITS-ISTR.

Several risk factors of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) following intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischaemic stroke have been established. However, potential predictors of good functional outcome post-SICH have been less studied. Patient data registered in the Safe Implementation of Treatment in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Register (SITS-ISTR) from 2005 to 2021 were used. Acute ischaemic stroke patients who developed post intravenous thrombolysis SICH according to the SITS Monitoring Study definition were analyzed to identify predictors of functional outcomes. A total of 1679 patients with reported SICH were included, out of which only 2.8% achieved good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores of 0-2), whilst 80.9% died at 3 months. Higher baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score and 24-h ΔNIHSS score were independently associated with a lower likelihood of achieving both good and excellent functional outcomes at 3 months. Baseline NIHSS and hematoma location (presence of both SICHs, defined as remote and local SICH concurrently; n = 478) were predictors of early mortality within 24 h. Independent predictors of 3-month mortality were age, baseline NIHSS, 24-h ΔNIHSS, admission serum glucose values and hematoma location (both SICHs). Age, baseline NIHSS score, 24-h ΔNIHSS, hyperlipidemia, prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, antiplatelet treatment, diastolic blood pressure at admission, glucose values on admission and SICH location (both SICHs) were associated with reduced disability at 3 months (≥1-point reduction across all modified Rankin Scale scores). Patients with remote SICH (n = 219) and local SICH (n = 964) had comparable clinical outcomes, both before and after propensity score matching. Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage presents an alarmingly high prevalence of adverse clinical outcomes, with no difference in clinical outcomes between remote and local SICH.

A visualized MAC nomogram online predicts the risk of three-month mortality in Chinese elderly aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients undergoing endovascular coiling.

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is an aggressive disease with higher mortality rate in the elderly population. Unfortunately, the previous models for predicting clinical prognosis are still not accurate enough. Therefore, we aimed to construct and validate a visualized nomogram model to predict online the 3-month mortality in elderly aSAH patients undergoing endovascular coiling. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 209 elderly aSAH patients at People's Hospital of Hunan Province, China. A nomogram was developed based on multivariate logistic regression and forward stepwise regression analysis, then validated using the bootstrap validation method (n = 1000). In addition, the performance of the nomogram was evaluated by various indicators to prove its clinical value. Morbid pupillary reflex, age, and using a breathing machine were independent predictors of 3-month mortality. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.901 (95% CI: 0.853-0.950), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration of the nomogram (p = 0.4328). Besides, the bootstrap validation method internally validated the nomogram with an area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) of 0.896 (95% CI: 0.846-0.945). Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) indicated the nomogram's excellent clinical utility and applicability. An easily applied visualized nomogram model named MAC (morbid pupillary reflex-age-breathing machine) based on three accessible factors has been successfully developed. The MAC nomogram is an accurate and complementary tool to support individualized decision-making and emphasizes that patients with higher risk of mortality may require closer monitoring. Furthermore, a web-based online version of the risk calculator would greatly contribute to the spread of the model in this field.

Novel predictors of response to therapy with terlipressin and albumin in hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury.

A combination of terlipressin and albumin is the first-line pharmacologic treatment for hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI). We assessed the response rates to terlipressin-albumin therapy in patients with HRS-AKI and determined early predictors of treatment response and survival. A total of 84 patients with HRS-AKI (International Club of Ascites definition 2015) treated with terlipressin-albumin were included. Predictors of HRS reversal were identified by logistic regression analysis. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox regression models were used to determine independent predictors of mortality. Complete response to therapy was observed in 54.8%, partial response in 14.3%, and no response in 31% of patients. The factors associated with complete treatment response were the presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), baseline serum creatinine, a rise in mean arterial pressure by day 3, and a reduction in the renal resistive index (ΔRRI) by day 3 of treatment. Independent predictors of HRS reversal were the presence of SIRS at baseline (P=0.022; odds ratio [OR] 15.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.47-167.82) and ΔRRI ≥5% by day 3 of treatment (P=0.048; OR 6.67, 95%CI 1.021-43.62). Mean transplant-free survival at 6 months was significantly better in treatment responders (148 vs. 90 days, P<0.001). Independent predictors of 6-month mortality were response to treatment (P=0.004) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium >23 (P=0.018). SIRS and ΔRRI are simple parameters to predict treatment response in HRS-AKI. Non-responders have higher mortality and should be identified early to expedite liver transplantation.

Bacteremia (Sepsis), Hepatorenal Syndrome, and Serum Creatinine Levels Rather than Types or Microbial Patterns Predicted the Short-Term Survival of Cirrhotic Patients Complicated with Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

(1) Background: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a major and severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites. Over the years, advance in antibiotic treatment has led to changes in microbial patterns in some regions, including the emergence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases resistant (ESBL)-producing bacteria and an increase in Gram-positive bacteria (GPC). In addition, three SBP types (classic SBP, culture-negative neutrophilic ascites (CNNA), and monomicrobial non-neutrocytic bacterascites (MNB)), may also have different prognoses. Therefore, the study aimed to investigate the microbial pattern and the predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with SBP. (2) Methods: Patients discharged with a diagnosis of the first episode of SBP between January 2006 and July 2017 were enrolled. Patients' clinical, demographic, hematological, and biochemical data were obtained at diagnosis, and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based scores were calculated accordingly. Patients were followed up until February 2018 or until death. (3) Results: A total of 327 patients were analyzed. The prevalence of classic SBP was nearly equivalent to CNNA. As for the microbial pattern, Gram-negative bacillus (GNB) remained more prevalent than GPC (75 vs. 25%), with E. coli being the most common bacterial species, followed by K. Pneumoniae and then Staphylococcus. The percentage of ESBL strain in culture-positive patients was 10.9%. By univariable and multivariable logistic regression survival analysis, there was no significant difference in predicting short-term mortality among the three SBP types, neither between GNB vs. GPC nor between ESBL- and non-ESBL-producing bacteria. Only bacteremia (sepsis), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and serum creatinine (Cr) were independent predictors of in-hospital and 3-month mortality, whereas HRS and Cr were independent predictors of 6-month mortality. (4) Conclusions: SBP types, Gram stain result, and ESBL strain did not affect survival. Only bacteremia (sepsis), HRS, and serum Cr independently predicted the short-term mortality in patients with SBP.

Brain symmetry index predicts 3-month mortality in patients with acute large hemispheric infarction.

Quantitative electroencephalography data are helpful to predict outcomes of cerebral infarction patients. The study was performed to evaluate the value of brain symmetry index by quantitative electroencephalography in predicting 3-month mortality of large hemispheric infarction. We studied a prospective, consecutive series of patients with large supratentorial cerebral infarction confirmed within 3 days from the onset in 2 intensive care units from August 2017 to February 2020. The electroencephalography was recorded once admission. The brain symmetry index (BSI) which is divided into BSIfast and BSIslow were calculated for each electrodes pair. The outcome was mortality at 3 months after the onset. A total of 38 patients were included. The subjects were divided into the mortality group (15 patients) and survival group (23 patients). Of the BSIfast and BSIslow at each electrodes pair, higher BSIfastC3-C4, higher BSIslowC3-C4, and higher BSIslowO1-O2 were noticed in the mortality group than that in the survival group at 3 months (P = .001; P = .010; P = .009). Multivariable analysis indicated that BSIfastC3-C4 was an independent predictor of 3-month mortality (odds ratio = 1.059, 95%CI 1.003, 1.119, P = .039). BSIfastC3-C4 could significant predict 3-month mortality (area under curve = 0.805, P = .005). And when we combined BSIfastC3-C4, Glasgow Coma Scale and infarct volume together to predict the 3-month mortality, the predicted value increased (area under curve = 0.840, P = .002). BSIfastC3-C4 could independently predict the 3-month mortality of large hemispheric infarction. The combination marker which includes Glasgow Coma Scale, infarct volume, and BSIfastC3-C4 has a better diagnostic value. Further clinical trials with a large sample size are still needed.

Predictors of three months mortality after endovascular mechanical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke

ObjectiveThis study aims to determine predictive factors of mortality within 3 months after mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).MethodsThis prospective cohort study was carried out at Assiut University stroke center in collaboration with Ain Shams University Egypt. Forty-four patients with anterior circulation AIS underwent MT between the first of January 2020 to the end of December 2020. They were evaluated for detection of death rates and identification of risks of 3-month mortality after MT.ResultsThis study comprised 44 patients (52.3% male) with a mean age of 64.3 years. The mean time from onset to femoral arterial puncture was 304.1 min. The mean Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score were 9.3 and 19.2, respectively. The 3-month mortality rate was 13.6%. Univariate analyses found that higher baseline NIHSS score (mean 22.2 vs. 18.7, p = 0.021), absence of good collateral (16.7% vs. 68.4%, p = 0.02), longer duration of procedure ≥ 60 min (66.7% vs. 23.7%, p = 0.032), lower rates of successful recanalization (83.3% vs. 28.9%, p = 0.01) and developing symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (33.3% vs. 5.3%, p = 0.026) were associated with 3-month mortality. Multivariate analyses found that low rates of successful recanalization (OR 0.081; 95% CI 0.009–0.780, p = 0.030) remained significant independent predictive factor of 3-month mortality.ConclusionSuccessful recanalization was an independent predictor of 3-month mortality after MT.

Very Early Discharge After Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Mortality Outcomes at Six Months

BackgroundCurrent guidelines recommend that low risk patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and undergoing uncomplicated primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) can be discharged home in 48–72 h. We report the safety of early discharge in STEMI patients undergoing uncomplicated PPCI after 24-h stay in-hospital. MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive patients presenting with STEMI between January 2014 and December 2020. One- and 6-month mortality rates were compared between patients who underwent next day (early discharge group) and two days in-hospital stay (standard discharge group). ResultsOf 6119 STEMI patients, 4033 were included in the analysis, of whom 1674 (42 %) underwent early discharge. Patients in the early discharge group were younger, more likely to be male, and had a lower peak troponin. Both groups had similar ischemia- and door-to-balloon time, but anterior STEMI were less frequent in the early discharge group. The 1- and 6-month mortality rate for the whole cohort was 0.6 % and 1.3 %, respectively. After adjustment, there were no significant differences in the 1-month [HR 0.54; 95 % CI (0.20 to 1.47), P = 0.23] and 6-month mortality [HR 0.73; 95 % CI (0.38 to 1.41), P = 0.35] between early and standard discharge groups. Age, admission heart rate and chronic obstructive lung disease were identified as independent predictors of 6-month mortality in patients who underwent early discharge strategy. ConclusionOur data confirms safety of next day discharge of patients presenting with STEMI after successful PPCI and uncomplicated post-procedural course.

Comparison of intuitive assessment and palliative care screening tool in the early identification of patients needing palliative care

The intuitive assessment of palliative care (PC) needs and Palliative Care Screening Tool (PCST) are the assessment tools used in the early detection of patients requiring PC. However, the comparison of their prognostic accuracies has not been extensively studied. This cohort study aimed to compare the validity of intuitive assessment and PCST in terms of recognizing patients nearing end-of-life (EOL) and those appropriate for PC. All adult patients admitted to Taipei City Hospital from 2016 through 2019 were included in this prospective study. We used both the intuitive assessment of PC and PCST to predict patients’ 6-month mortality and identified those appropriate for PC. The c-statistic value was calculated to indicate the predictive accuracies of the intuition and PCST. Of 111,483 patients, 4.5% needed PC by the healthcare workers’ intuitive assessment, and 6.7% had a PCST score ≥ 4. After controlling for other covariates, a positive response ‘yes’ to intuitive assessment of PC needs [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 9.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 914–10.71] and a PCST score ≥ 4 (AOR = 6.59; 95%CI 6.17–7.00) were the independent predictors of 6-month mortality. Kappa statistics showed moderate concordance between intuitive assessment and PCST in predicting patients' 6-month mortality (k = 0.49). The c-statistic values of the PCST at recognizing patients’ 6-month mortality was significantly higher than intuition (0.723 vs. 0.679; p < 0.001). As early identification of patients in need of PC could improve the quality of EOL care, our results suggest that it is imperative to screen patients’ palliative needs by using a highly accurate screening tool of PCST.

Prediction of 6-Month Mortality Using Pre-Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Lactate in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Veno-Arterial-Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

BackgroundThe effectiveness of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for patients with refractory cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest is being established, and serum lactate is well known as a biomarker of end-organ perfusion. We evaluated the efficacy of pre-ECMO lactate for predicting 6-month survival in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing ECMO.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of 148 patients who underwent veno-arterial (VA) ECMO for ACS between January 2015 and June 2020. These patients were divided into survivors and non-survivors based on 6-month survival. All clinical data before and during ECMO were compared between the 2 groups.ResultsPatients’ mean age was 66.0±10.5 years, and 116 (78.4%) were men. The total survival rate was 45.9% (n=68). Cox regression analysis showed that the pre-ECMO lactate level was an independent predictor of 6-month mortality (hazard ratio, 1.210; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.064–1.376; p=0.004). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of pre-ECMO lactate was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.56–0.72; p=0.002; cut-off value=9.8 mmol/L). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative survival rate at 6 months was significantly higher among patients with a pre-ECMO lactate level of 9.8 mmol/L or less than among those with a level exceeding 9.8 mmol/L (57.3% vs. 31.8%, p=0.0008).ConclusionA pre-ECMO lactate of 9.8 mmol/L or less may predict a favorable outcome at 6 months in ACS patients undergoing VA-ECMO. Further research aiming to improve the accuracy of predictions of reversibility in patients with high pre-ECMO lactate levels is essential.

Geriatric syndromes predict mortality of people aged 75+ years in the observation room of emergency department: Towards function-centric emergency medicine

BackgroundAging is a complex process involving functional decline, reduced physiological reserve, increased multimorbidity, and impaired homeostasis, all of which collectively generate various health risks for older adults. To predict short-term mortality of non-critical older patients in the observation room of the emergency department (ED) based on function-centric approach instead of disease-centric one. MethodsWe conducted a prospective study enrolling 831 patients aged 75 years and older between 2018 and 2020. Comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed on all patients, and the results were integrated into the care planning process. ResultsIn total 831 patients (mean age: 84.8 ± 5.8 years) were enrolled and the post-discharge mortality rate was 3.3% (28 deaths) after 3 months, and 5.4% (45 deaths) after 6 months. The independent predictors of 3-month mortality were malnutrition (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.77; p < 0.05), incontinence (adjusted OR, 2.58; p < 0.05) and multimorbidity (adjusted OR, 1.51; p < 0.001). For 6-month mortality, malnutrition (adjusted OR, 4.20; p < 0.01), multimorbidity (adjusted OR, 1.40; p < 0.001) and activities of daily living (adjusted OR, 0.99; p < 0.05) were all independent predictors. ConclusionAlthough ED aims to treat acute and life-threatening conditions, older persons with geriatric syndromes are also at a substantially high risk of adverse outcomes, even mortality. Transitioning of the ED from disease-centric to function-centric services is important for responding to the changing health care needs of super-aged societies.

Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on six-month mortality and clinical outcomes of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has changed everyday clinical practice, with a shortage of solid data about its implications for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on 6-month clinical outcomes of patients with STEMI and determine the mortality predictors after STEMI during the COVID-19 pandemic. This prospective observational study was conducted on consecutive STEMI patients who presented to our hospital between April and October 2021. A total of 74 COVID-19-positive patients were included in group I and compared to 148 COVID-19-negative patients (group II). We compared the two cohorts' rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; composite of death from any cause, recurrent MI, target-vessel revascularization, and stroke) at 6 months. COVID-19 STEMI patients were more likely to present with angina equivalent symptoms, had higher Killip class at admission, and higher levels of high-sensitive cardiac troponin T and serum C-reactive protein. The 6-month rates of MACEs were significantly higher in STEMI patients with COVID-19 compared to non-COVID-19 patients (41.9% vs. 16.9%, respectively; p < 0.001) and were mainly due to higher in-hospital mortality (20.3% vs. 6.1%, respectively; p = 0.001). The independent predictors of 6-month mortality in STEMI patients during the COVID-19 pandemic were the absence of ST resolution, low systolic blood and higher Killip class on admission, presence of severe MR and atrial fibrillation, and anterior wall STEMI. STEMI patients with superimposed COVID-19 infection had worse clinical outcomes, with almost three times higher in-hospital mortality and 6-month MACEs.

Usefulness of lung ultrasound for selecting asymptomatic older patients with COVID 19 pneumonia

Clinical and prognostic differences between symptomatic and asymptomatic older patients with COVID-19 are of great interest since frail patients often show atypical presentation of illness. Lung Ultrasound (LUS) has been proven to be a reliable tool for detecting early-phase COVID-19 pneumonic alterations. The current prospective bicentric study aimed to compare LUS score and 3-month overall mortality between asymptomatic and symptomatic older patients with COVID-19, according to frailty status. Patients were stratified according to LUS score tertiles and Clinical Frailty Scale categories. Survival rate was assessed by telephone interviews 3 months after discharge. 64 symptomatic (24 women, aged 80.0 ± 10.8 years) and 46 asymptomatic (31 women, aged 84.3 ± 8.8 years) were consecutively enrolled. LUS score resulted an independent predictor of 3-month mortality [OR 2.27 (CI95% 1.09–4.8), p = 0.03], and the highest mortality rate was observed in symptomatic and asymptomatic pre-frail and frail patients (70.6% and 66.7%, respectively) with greater LUS abnormalities (3rd tertile). In conclusion, LUS identified an acute interstitial lung involvement in most of the older asymptomatic patients. Mortality rate progressively increased according to clinical frailty and LUS score degree, resulting a reliable prognostic tool in both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients.

Contrast Associated Acute Kidney Injury and Mortality in Older Adults with Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Pooled Analysis of the FRASER and HULK Studies.

Whether contrast-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) is only a bystander or a risk factor for mortality in older patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is not well understood. Data from FRASER (NCT02386124) and HULK (NCT03021044) studies have been analysed. All patients enrolled underwent coronary angiography. The occurrence of CA-AKI was defined based on KDIGO criteria. The primary outcome of the study was to test the relation between CA-AKI and 3-month mortality. Overall, 870 older ACS adults were included in the analysis (mean age 78 ± 5 years; 28% females). CA-AKI occurred in 136 (16%) patients. At 3 months, 13 (9.6%) patients with CA-AKI died as compared with 13 (1.8%) without it (p < 0.001). At multivariable analysis, CA-AKI emerged as independent predictor of 3-month mortality (HR 3.51, 95%CI 1.05–7.01). After 3 months, renal function returned to the baseline value in 78 (63%) with CA-AKI. Those without recovered renal function (n = 45, 37%) showed an increased risk of mortality as compared to recovered renal function and no CA-AKI subgroups (HR 2.01, 95%CI 1.55–2.59, p = 0.009 and HR 2.71, 95%CI 1.45–5.89, p < 0.001, respectively). In conclusion, CA-AKI occurs in a not negligible portion of older MI patients undergoing invasive strategy and it is associated with short-term mortality.

Development and Validation of an Early Mortality Risk Score for Older Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Cancer.

Background: Estimation of life expectancy in older patients is relevant to select the best treatment strategy. We aimed to develop and validate a score to predict early mortality in older patients with cancer. Patients and Methods: A total of 749 patients over 70 years starting new chemotherapy regimens were prospectively included. A prechemotherapy assessment that included sociodemographic variables, tumor/treatment variables, and geriatric assessment variables was performed. Association between these factors and early death was examined using multivariable logistic regression. Score points were assigned to each risk factor. External validation was performed on an independent cohort. Results: In the training cohort, the independent predictors of 6-month mortality were metastatic stage (OR 4.8, 95% CI [2.4–9.6]), ECOG-PS 2 (OR 2.3, 95% CI [1.1–5.2]), ADL ≤ 5 (OR 1.7, 95% CI [1.1–3.5]), serum albumin levels ≤ 3.5 g/dL (OR 3.4, 95% CI [1.7–6.6]), BMI < 23 kg/m2 (OR 2.5, 95% CI [1.3–4.9]), and hemoglobin levels < 11 g/dL (OR 2.4, 95% CI (1.2–4.7)). With these results, we built a prognostic score. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.84), and in the validation set, it was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67–0.79). Conclusions: This simple and highly accurate tool can help physicians making decisions in elderly patients with cancer who are planned to initiate chemotherapy treatment.

A novel risk score for predicting 6-months mortality at the time of hospital discharge in patients admitted with acute coronary syndrome

BackgroundIn patients with ACS, risk assessment at hospital discharge has not received much consideration in prior risk scoring systems. Hence, there is a need for a reliable and simple tool to identify patients with high mortality risk at discharge form the hospital. MethodsIn a 1-year observational, prospective study, 1012 patients admitted with ACS were followed up for 6 months after discharge. From 26 potential variables, a new risk score to predict 6-month mortality was developed. ResultsA multi-variant Cox regression analysis with forward stepwise variable selection was performed and 10 highly significant independent predictors of 6-month mortality were identified. These include previous history of ACS, higher Killip class at admission, NYHA class at discharge, recurrent ischemia during hospital stay, heart failure, requiring ionotropic supports, requiring hemodialysis, presence of arrhythmia, left ventricular dysfunction detected on echocardiography and elevated admission blood glucose levels. Points were given to each variable and a total score was calculated. A risk score of 0–4 (low risk) predicted a mortality of 3.7%,a risk score of 5–15 (Intermediate risk) predicted a mortality of 16.4% and a risk score of 11–15 predicted a mortality of 32.0% over a 6-month period. The new risk score was noninferior to GRACE risk score in its predictive accuracy of 6-month mortality in the same cohort of patients (p < 0.05). ConclusionThe risk score developed in our study can be easily calculated at the bedside and is aimed at identifying high risk patients who require more intense follow up after discharge.

Association of calprotectin with other inflammatory parameters in the prediction of mortality for ischemic stroke

BackgroundInflammatory response plays an important role in many processes related to acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Calprotectin (S100A8/S100A9), released by monocytes and neutrophils, is a key protein in the regulation of inflammation and thrombosis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association of circulating calprotectin with other inflammatory biomarkers and AIS prognosis, as well as the calprotectin content in stroke thrombi.MethodsAmong the 748 patients treated at a comprehensive stroke center between 2015 and 2017, 413 patients with confirmed acute ischemic injury were prospectively evaluated. Patients with systemic inflammation or infection at onset were excluded. Plasma calprotectin was measured by ELISA in blood samples of AIS patients within the first 24 h. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed to evaluate its association with mortality and functional independence (FI) at 3 months (defined as modified Rankin Scale < 3) and hemorrhagic transformation (HT) after ischemic stroke. Further, S100A9 was localized by immunostaining in stroke thrombi (n = 44).ResultsHigher calprotectin levels were associated with 3-month mortality, HT, and lower 3-month FI. After adjusting for potential confounders, plasma calprotectin remained associated with 3-month mortality [OR (95% CI) 2.31 (1.13–4.73)]. Patients with calprotectin ≥ 2.26 μg/mL were 4 times more likely to die [OR 4.34 (1.95–9.67)]. Addition of calprotectin to clinical variables led to significant improvement in the discrimination capacity of the model [0.91 (0.87–0.95) vs 0.89 (0.85–0.93); p < 0.05]. A multimarker approach demonstrated that patients with increased calprotectin, CRP, and NLR had the poorest outcome with a mortality rate of 42.3% during follow-up. S100A9 protein, as part of the heterodimer calprotectin, was present in all thrombi retrieved from AIS patients. Mean S100A9 content was 3.5% and tended to be higher in patients who died (p = 0.09). Moreover, it positively correlated with platelets (Pearson r 0.46, p < 0.002), leukocytes (0.45, p < 0.01), and neutrophil elastase (0.70, p < 0.001) thrombus content.ConclusionsPlasma calprotectin is an independent predictor of 3-month mortality and provides complementary prognostic information to identify patients with poor outcome after AIS. The presence of S100A9 in stroke thrombi suggests a possible inflammatory mechanism in clot formation, and further studies are needed to determine its influence in resistance to reperfusion.

Phase Angle Is an Independent Predictor of 6-Month Mortality in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Prospective Cohort Study.

This study aimed to evaluate the nutrition status through phase angle (PA) and its association with mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. A prospective cohort study was performed with hospitalized decompensated cirrhotic patients. Nutrition status was assessed by PA, bioelectrical impedance vector analysis (BIVA), and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) within 72 hours of hospital admission. The best PA cutoff point for malnutrition diagnosis was determined by ROC curve analysis, considering the SGA as the reference standard. Predictors of 6-month mortality were identified using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for Child-Pugh and MELD scores, and hepatocellular carcinoma. This study included 97 patients, 63% male (n = 61), with a mean age of 60.1 ± 10.3 years. The median follow-up time of patients was 11.2 months (IQR, 2.4-21). Overall mortality was 58.8% (n = 57) and 6-month mortality was 35.1% (n = 34). Nutrition assessment according to BIVA indicated a risk for cachexia and normal hydration. Patients with values of PA ≤5.52° were considered malnourished. Malnourished patients according to PA (58.8%, n = 57) had a higher risk of 6-month mortality (HR = 3.44; 95% CI, 1.51-7.84; P = .003), and each increase of 1° in PA values was associated with a reduction of 53% in 6-month mortality risk. The PA is an independent predictor of 6-month mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Therefore, PA may be useful to assess the nutrition status and identify patients at the highest risk of mortality in clinical practice.

Prediction Factors of 6-Month Poor Prognosis in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients.

Background: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Patients with AMI may have the risk of developing recurrent cardiovascular events leading to rehospitalization or even death. The present study aimed to investigate the prediction factors of poor prognosis (mortality and/or readmission) after AMI during a 6-month follow-up.Methods: A total of 206 consecutive patients hospitalized for the first visit with AMI were enrolled. Data collection included demographic characteristics, medical history, clinical information, laboratory results, and oral medications within 24 h of admission. At 1, 3, and 6 months after discharge, AMI patients were followed up to assess the occurrence of composite endpoint events including in-hospital and out-of-hospital death and/or readmission due to recurrent myocardial infarction (MI) or exacerbated symptoms of heart failure following MI.Results: After 6-month follow-up, a total of 197 AMI patients were available and divided in two groups according to good prognosis (n = 144) and poor prognosis (n = 53). Our data identified serum myoglobin ≥651 ng/mL, serum creatinine ≥96 μM, Killip classification 2–4, and female gender as independent predictors of 6-month mortality and/or readmission after AMI. Moreover, we demonstrated that Killip classification 2–4 combined with either myoglobin (AUCKillip class 2−4+myoglobin = 0.784, sensitivity = 69.8%, specificity = 79.9%) or creatinine (AUCKillip class 2−4+creatinine = 0.805, sensitivity = 75.5%, specificity = 77.1%) could further enhance the predictive capacity of poor 6-month prognosis among AMI patients.Conclusions: Patients with AMI ranked in the higher Killip class need to be evaluated and monitored with attention. Multibiomarker approach using Killip classification 2–4 and myoglobin or creatinine may be an effective way for 6-month prognosis prediction in AMI patients.