Independent Predictor Of Mortality Research Articles

Clinical data and quantitative CT parameters combined with machine learning to predict short-term prognosis of severe COVID-19 in the elderly

Rationale and objectivesThis study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating clinical data and quantitative CT parameters with machine learning techniques in forecasting the short-term outcomes of severe COVID-19 in elderly patients. Materials and methodsIn this retrospective study, we analyzed the clinical profiles and chest quantitative CT parameters of 239 elderly patients with severe COVID-19 admitted for treatment. The cohort included 61 deceased patients (death group) and 178 who recovered and were discharged (survival group). The participants were randomly assigned into a training group (n = 167) and a validation group (n = 72). Quantitative CT parameters were measured using the 3D-Slicer software. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified independent risk factors for mortality. Predictive models were developed employing four machine learning algorithms: Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). ResultsBoth univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed age, hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and solid organ volume percentage (SOV%) as independent predictors of mortality. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) values for the LR, RF, DT, and SVM models in the training group were 0.795, 0.726, 0.854, and 0.589, respectively; for the validation group, they were 0.817, 0.634, 0.869, and 0.754, respectively. The DT algorithm outperformed other models in both the training and validation groups, emerging as the most effective predictive model in this study. ConclusionThe combination of clinical data and quantitative CT parameters with machine learning approaches is highly valuable in predicting the short-term prognosis of severe COVID-19 in the elderly. Among the various models tested, the Decision Tree algorithm-based model proved to be the most accurate and reliable in this context.

Predictive Value of Esophageal Deviation Index for Clinical Outcomes of Patients With Left-Sided Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia

PurposeThis study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of postnatal esophageal deviation index (EDI) measured within the first 24 h of life for predicting mortality and morbidity in neonates with left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia (L-CDH). MethodThis retrospective study analyzed clinical data from 133 neonates with L-CDH admitted to Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center between January 2016 and January 2024. Patients were categorized into two groups based on outcomes: survivors (n = 108) and non-survivors (n = 27). Risk factors for mortality were identified using both univariate and multivariate analyses. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized to evaluate the predictive value of EDI for mortality in L-CDH patients. Subsequently, patients were divided into two groups: those with an EDI> 16.1% and those with an EDI≤16.1%. The relationship between EDI and both mortality and morbidity was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier analysis, chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and multivariate analysis. ResultsEDI (adjusted OR: 0.822, 95% CI 0.723–0.935; P = 0.003) was identified as the independent predictor of mortality through both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The ROC curve demonstrated that the area under the curve (AUC) for predicting the mortality was 0.854 (95%CI: 0.782–0.930) for EDI, with an optimal cut-off value of 16.125%. The cumulative mortality rate through Day 200 was higher in patients with an EDI>16.1% (P＜0.001). Among the 133 neonates with L-CDH, 24.8% had an EDI>16.1%. This was associated with significantly worse CDH characteristics, including a high incidence of intrathoracic stomach and a high occurrence of high-risk defect sizes (type C/D), (P＜0.001), as well as more severe pulmonary hypertension (P＜0.001). An EDI>16.1% was associated with higher mortality and a greater need for ECMO support compared to an EDI≤16.1% (P＜0.001). ConclusionEDI within the first 24 h of life in patients with L-CDH is associated with increased mortality and the need for ECMO, particularly when EDI exceeds 16.1%. Level of EvidenceIII.

Surgery versus surveillance for ascending aortic aneurysms in elderly patients

BackgroundWhether elderly patients with aortic root or ascending aortic aneurysm (ATAA) would benefit from the new surgical size threshold of 5.0 cm is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the natural history of ATAA in elderly patients and to compare long-term outcomes of those who underwent initial surveillance versus surgery. MethodsPatients age ≥75 years with an ATAA ≥40 mm were categorized into 2 groups: initial surgery and initial surveillance. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for survival. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify independent predictors of long-term mortality. ResultsThe study series comprised 300 patients, including 58 who underwent initial surgery and 242 who received surveillance between July 2010 and September 2022. In the surveillance cohort, the mean aneurysm growth rate was 0.10 cm/year. Comparing surveillance to surgery, at 8 years there was no difference in survival (mean, 77.8 ± 3.4% vs 71.8 ± 9.6%; P = .65). For 116 patients with an initial aneurysm diameter ≥5.0 cm, there was no difference in survival between the 2 groups at 8 years (76.5 ± 7.0% vs 68.4 ± 11.3%; P = .20). Larger body surface area (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.90; P = .01) and history of smoking (HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.27-3.98; P = .01) were identified as predictors of long-term mortality. ConclusionsIn our series of elderly patients with ATAA, there was no difference in 8-year survival between initial surveillance and surgical management, with a high competing risk of nonaortic mortality. Surveillance may be a reasonable alternative to surgery for selected older adults with ATAA <5.5 cm.

Clinical outcomes and predictors in patients with acute on chronic liver failure in Southern Taiwan

Background/aimsThe study is to analyze the clinical characteristics and identify prognostic factors as well as evaluate predictive models in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) from Southern Taiwan. MethodsThe cohort study was conducted using the Chang Gung Research Database. We included patients with ACLF based on the definition provided by the Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). ResultsA total of 231 patients diagnosed with ACLF were included in this study, out of which 26 patients underwent liver transplantation (LT). The primary cause of ACLF was acute exacerbation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 68.4% of cases and followed by severe alcoholic hepatitis (20.8%). Among LT-free patients, the 28-day mortality rate was observed to be 31%. Older age, higher INR and ammonia levels, and the presence of severe hepatic encephalopathy on 3–6 days of treatment were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated on 3–6 days, demonstrated the highest predictive performance for 28-day mortality. The optimal cut-off values for the CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores were determined to be 47 and 6.3, respectively. Patients with CLIF-C ACLF score >63 or COSSH-ACLF score >8.1 experienced 100% mortality by day 28. ConclusionsThe CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated within one week after treatment, exhibit strong predictive capabilities for short-term mortality in ACLF patients. These models are valuable tools for guiding timely decision-making, including the consideration of liver transplantation or withdrawal from treatment.

Abstract P124: Prognostic Significance of Free Triiodothyronine Levels in Patients with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis

Objective: This study aimed to identify key prognostic factors in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) presenting heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), with a special focus on the role of Free Triiodothyronine (FT3) levels. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, comprising HFpEF patients admitted to two medical centers from 2009 to 2019. Data collection included demographic and clinical parameters, particularly FT3 levels. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve analysis, and Restricted Cubic Spline (RCS) curve analysis were employed to identify prognostic factors and to assess the non-linear predictive value of FT3. Results: The analysis revealed that age, atrial fibrillation, and NT-proBNP levels significantly influenced prognosis in heart failure patients. Additionally, FT3 levels emerged as a significant independent predictor of both all-cause mortality and cardiac transplantation. Patients with lower FT3 levels exhibited poorer long-term prognoses, with 2.885 identified as the critical FT3 value. Conclusions: These findings underscore the importance of FT3 levels as a crucial prognostic factor in patients with heart failure, warranting consideration in patient outcomes assessments. Clinicians are recommended to monitor FT3 levels and contemplate interventions aimed at maintaining or enhancing thyroid function in these patients to improve outcomes.

90-Day outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia treated with invasive mechanical ventilation

BackgroundThere are few reports detailing the prognostic factors of severe COVID-19 pneumonia requiring invasive ventilation. We investigated the long-term prognosis and evaluated which factors influenced outcomes in these patients. MethodsData was reviewed from severe adult COVID-19 cases admitted to our hospital and treated with mechanical ventilation between February 1, 2020, and October 30, 2021. On admission to our hospital, comorbidities and laboratory findings were collected from clinical records. Prognostic information for 90 days after diagnosis was also obtained from hospitals where patients were transferred after their conditions stabilized. ResultsPrognostic information was obtained in 133 patients, of which 106 were males (79.7 %). Of the 133 patients, 67 were discharged (51.5 %), 21 continued inpatient care (15.8 %), and 45 died (33.8 %). Age, Charlson Risk Index, and the number of patients on hemodialysis were significantly higher in the deceased group. There were no differences in therapeutic interventions between survivors and those who died except for a higher rate of muscle relaxant and vasopressor usage in the deceased group. Laboratory findings on admission showed significantly higher levels of BUN, creatinine, and serum Krebs von den Lungen 6 (KL-6), and significantly lower platelet counts, hemoglobin, and alanine aminotransferase in those who died. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, hemodialysis, lower platelet counts, and higher KL-6 were independent predictors for 90-day mortality. ConclusionsOlder age, hemodialysis, lower platelet counts and high KL-6 on admission were identified as independent predictors of 90-day mortality in patients with respiratory failure due to severe COVID-19 under invasive mechanical ventilation.

O57 NOCTURNAL BLOOD PRESSURE FLUCTUATION AND DIPPING PATTERNS IN PATIENTS WITH SEVERE OBSTRUCTIVE SLEEP APNOEA

Background and Objective: Nighttime blood pressure (BP) is important for diagnosis of hypertension and for cardiovascular risk stratification. Remarkably, a reverse dipping pattern is a strong and independent predictor of overall mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events. Therefore, the further clarification of the underlying mechanisms of non- and reverse dipping is crucial to improve the treatment of patients with nighttime hypertension. Methods: We investigated 97 patients with suspected obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA, AHI &gt;30) using standard polysomnography and continuous BP measurement based on the pulse-transit-time method (SOMNOscreen Plus®, SOMNOmedics). Frequency and amplitude of fluctuations in systolic BP following sleep disturbances (OSA) were investigated. Results: Apnoeic events went along with transient increases of BP. In some cases, systolic BP did not reach the value before the apnoea but increased over time. We defined elevations of the systolic BP baseline by &gt;10 mmHg with a duration of &gt;10 min as BP superpositions. The superposition periods were also characterized by increased BP amplitudes with peak values of BP up to 220 mmHg. Superposition occurred in 48 patients. Further, 65% of the OSA patients were identified as non-dippers. However, nearly all the patients with superposition (98%) were identified to have non-dipper or reverse dipper patterns. Conclusions: Our study strongly suggests that non-dipping and reverse dipping in patients with severe OSA are causally linked to OSA related BP fluctuations. Further, continuous elevations in SBP baseline (superpositions) result in extreme BP values. This behaviour with high BP peaks may be contributing to the increased mortality in patients with reverse dipping. Therefore, identification and adequate treatment of patients with reverse dipping reduces the cardiovascular risk and may prolong their life.

Mitral valve replacement versus repair for severe mitral regurgitation in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

ObjectiveThis study compares early and long-term outcomes following mitral valve (MV) repair and replacement in patients with mitral regurgitation (MR) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). MethodsPatients with primary or secondary MR and LVEF <50% who underwent MV replacement or repair (with/without atrial septal defect closure and/or atrial fibrillation ablation) between 2005 and 2017 at our center were retrospectively analyzed using unadjusted and propensity score matching techniques (42 pairs). ResultsA total of 356 patients with either primary (n = 162 [45.5%]) or secondary MR (n = 194 [54.5%]) and LVEF <50% underwent MV repair (n = 293 [82.3%]) or replacement (n = 63 [17.7%]) during the study period. In-hospital mortality was 0.3% (repair) and 1.6% (replacement) in the unmatched cohort (P = .32); there were no in-hospital deaths after matching. Estimated survival was 72.8% (repair) versus 50.1% (replacement) at 8 years in the unmatched (P < .001), and 64.3% (repair) versus 50.7% (replacement) in the matched groups (P = .028). Eight-year cumulative incidence of reoperation was 7.0% and 11.6% in unmatched (P = .28), and 9.9% and 12.7% in matched (P = .69) repair and replacement groups, respectively. Markedly reduced LVEF (<40%) was among the independent predictors of long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.4; P = .002). In secondary MR, MV repair showed an 8-year survival benefit over replacement (65.1% vs 44.6%; P = .002), with no difference in reoperation rate (11.6% [repair] vs 17.0% [replacement]; P = .11). ConclusionsMV repair performed in primary or secondary MR and reduced LVEF provides superior long-term results compared with replacement. Severe LV dysfunction is a significant predictor of reduced survival following MV surgery.

Abstract P232: Estradiol Supplementation Prevents Ovariectomy-Induced Arterial Stiffness and Vascular Fibrosis

Background: Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality. Clinical data shows arterial stiffness increases rapidly after menopause, but mechanisms that mediate this change are not well known. The effect of ovariectomy (ovx) in rodent models is inconsistent in the literature. We hypothesize that the loss of estradiol (E2) contributes to ovx-induced arterial stiffening in a mouse model via fibrotic mechanisms, and that restoration of E2 will prevent these changes. Methods: Eight-week-old female C57/Bl6J mice received bilateral ovx or sham operation. Subcutaneous placebo or E2 (0.36 mg/day) pellets were implanted 2 weeks later to achieve three groups (sham+placebo, ovx+placebo, and ovx+E2). Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured as an index of arterial stiffness. Blood pressure (BP) was measured by radiotelemetry. Aortic fibrosis was assessed by histological quantification of Masson’s trichrome staining and expressed as fold change in %fibrosis from sham. Pro-fibrotic genes were assessed in aortic tissue via quantitative PCR. Data presented are mean ± SEM. Results: Successful ovx was confirmed by reduction in uterine weight in the ovx group compared with other groups ( p &lt;0.0001). At 6-weeks-post-surgery (N=16-18/group), PWV was increased in ovx (5.2±0.2 mm/ms) versus sham (3.4±0.1 mm/ms, p &lt;0.0001) and ovx+E2 (3.5±0.1 mm/ms, p &lt;0.0001) groups. In biweekly measures (N=4-5/group), PWV was greater in the ovx group at 4- and 6-weeks-post-surgery compared with sham ( p &lt;0.0001) and ovx+E2 ( p &lt;0.0001) groups, while PWV in the ovx+E2 group did not differ from sham at any time ( p ≥0.6). At 6-weeks post-surgery (N=5/group), there were no observed differences between groups for dark or light cycle systolic or diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, or pulse pressure. Aortic fibrosis was increased in the ovx group (1.6-fold) compared with sham ( p =0.03) and ovx+E2 (0.9-fold, p =0.02) groups (N=10-12/group). Aortic fibrosis correlated with PWV at 6-weeks-post-surgery (R 2 =0.25, p &lt;0.01). Aortic mRNA expression of collagen1a1 was increased in ovx versus ovx+E2 mice ( p =0.04, N=4-6/group). Conclusion: In conclusion, the restoration of E2 prevents ovx-driven arterial stiffening in female mice via a reduction in fibrotic remodeling of the aorta. The results also support that ovx is an appropriate model to study the mechanisms of menopause-induced arterial stiffening and that anti-fibrotic therapeutics may be beneficial in aging women.

Prognostic Relevance of Tricuspid Annular Plane Systolic Excursion to Systolic Pulmonary Arterial Pressure Ratio and Its Association With Exercise Hemodynamics in Patients With Normal or Mildly Elevated Resting Pulmonary Arterial Pressure

BackgroundEchocardiographic TAPSE/sPAP ratio is a non-invasive surrogate for right ventricular-pulmonary arterial (RV-PA) coupling. It has been related to outcome in patients with moderate to severe pulmonary hypertension (PH). Research QuestionIs RV-PA coupling of prognostic relevance in patients with suspected PH but only normal or mildly elevated mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) and is it associated with impaired exercise capacity and exercise hemodynamics? Study Design and MethodsPatients with mPAP<25mmHg who underwent echocardiography and exercise right heart catheterization in our PH-clinic, were retrospectively analyzed. Mild PH was defined by mPAP 21-24mmHg and exercise PH (EPH) by a mPAP/cardiac-output (CO) slope >3mmHg/L/min. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for clinical worsening, defined by disease-related hospitalization, transplantation, or death. Results237 patients (female: N=155; median age: 64 (IQR 54-73) years, no PH N=147; mild PH N=90; EPH N=202) were included. During the observation time of 63 (IQR:29-104) months, 36 patients died and 126 events of clinical worsening occurred. TAPSE/sPAP ratio turned out as age- and sex independent predictor of mortality (HR 0.09 95% CI: (0.01 – 0.62) p=0.014) and clinical worsening (HR 0.05 95% CI: (0.35-0.78); p=0.002). TAPSE/sPAP was also significantly correlated to 6-minute walk distance (r= 0.33; p<0.001) and exercise hemodynamics (mPAP/CO slope: rρ=-0.56, p<0.001). The best multivariate predictive model for clinical worsening in this patient collective consisted of TAPSE/sPAP ratio (HR: 0.71 (0.53-0.95), p=0.021), NT-proBNP (HR 1.15 (0.99-1.34), p=0.065) and 6MWD (HR: 0.998 (0.995-1.00), p=0.042). InterpretationIn patients with suspected PH but normal or only mildly elevated resting mPAP, TAPSE/sPAP ratio is an independent predictor of outcome. In addition, it is significantly associated with exercise capacity and exercise hemodynamics and may be a helpful tool in the prediction of future clinical worsening of this patient population.

Prehospital factors predicting mortality in patients with shock: state-wide linkage study

BackgroundPatients with shock treated by emergency medical services (EMS) have high morbidity and mortality. Knowledge of prehospital factors predicting outcomes in patients with shock remains limited. We aimed to describe...

Prognostic roles of neutrophil–lymphocyte, monocyte-lymphocyte and platelet-lymphocyte ratios for long-term all-cause mortality in heart failure

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) and inflammation have a bidirectional relation leading to activation and adaptation of multiple cellular lines, including leucocyte subtypes and platelets. We aimed to assess and compare the predictive value of the neutrophil–lymphocyte (NLR), monocyte-lymphocyte (MLR) and platelet-lymphocyte (PLR) ratios for all-cause long-term mortality in HF. MethodsThis is an observational retrospective cohort study that included patients from the HI-HF cohort that survived the initial hospitalization. Vital status and survival time were assessed in June 2020. ResultsWe analyzed 1018 HF patients with a mean age of 72.32 ± 10.29 years and 53.54 % women. All-cause long-term mortality was 38.21 % after a median follow-up time of 68 [38 – 82] months. NLR (AUC 0.667, 95 %CI 0.637 – 0.697), MLR (AUC 0.670, 95 %CI 0.640 – 0.700) and PLR (AUC 0.606, 95 %CI 0.574 – 0.636) were predictors of all-cause mortality. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, NLR≥3.56 was the only hematological index independent predictor of fatality (HR 1.36, 95 %CI 1.05 – 1.76). ConclusionsOf the three hematological indices, NLR was the only independent predictor of all-cause long-term mortality of HF patients. We suggest NLR≥3.56 as an auxiliary prognostic biomarker for the evaluation of HF patients.

Epicardial adipose tissue and muscle distribution affect outcomes in very old patients after transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

To analyse the relevance of body composition and blood markers for long-term outcomes in very old patients after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). A total of 403 very old patients were characterized with regard to subcutaneous, visceral, and epicardial fat, psoas muscle area, plasma growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), and leptin. Cohorts grouped by body mass index (BMI) were analysed for long-term outcomes. Patients underwent transapical and transfemoral TAVR (similar 30-day/1-year survival). Body mass index >35 kg/m2 showed increased 2- and 3-year mortality compared with BMI 25-34.9 kg/m2 but not compared with BMI <25 kg/m2. Fat areas correlated positively to BMI (epicardial: R 2 = 0.05, P < 0.01; visceral: R 2 = 0.20, P < 0.001; subcutaneous: R 2 = 0.13, P < 0.001). Increased epicardial or visceral but not subcutaneous fat area resulted in higher long-term mortality. Patients with high BMI (1781.3 mm2 ± 75.8, P < 0.05) and lean patients (1729.4 ± 52.8, P < 0.01) showed lower psoas muscle area compared with those with mildly elevated BMI (2055.2 ± 91.7). Reduced psoas muscle area and increased visceral fat and epicardial fat areas were independent predictors of long-term mortality. The levels of serum GDF-15 were the highest in BMI >40 kg/m2 (2793.5 pg/mL ± 123.2) vs. BMI <25 kg/m2 (2017.6 pg/mL ±130.8), BMI 25-30 kg/m2 (1881.8 pg/mL ±127.4), or BMI 30-35 kg/m2 (2054.2 pg/mL ±124.1, all P < 0.05). Increased GDF-15 level predicted mortality (2587 pg/mL, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.94). Serum leptin level increased with BMI without predictive value for long-term mortality. Morbidly visceral and epicardial fat accumulation, reduction in muscle area, and GDF-15 increase are strong predictors of adverse outcomes in very old patients post-TAVR.

Effect of obesity and hypertension on left ventricular geometry and function among asymptomatic Indian adults.

Hypertension & obesity are important independent predictors of cardiovascular morbidity & mortality specifically left ventricular (LV) functions. With the Objectives to examine the effect of obesity & hypertension on echocardiographic parameters of geometry, systolic, and diastolic functions of left ventricle in asymptomatic adults the cross-sectional study was conducted with 100 individuals (60 male & 40 female). Their Blood Pressure & Body Mass Index was recorded following which they were divided into obese normotensives & non-obese hypertensive. Echocardiographic parameters indicating LV geometry and function were recorded. Data was statistically analysed with Unpaired t test considering p value <0.05 as significant. LV geometry and LV systolic function parameters were significantly altered in non-obese hypertensive. Parameters of LV diastolic functions were affected in obese normotensives. 54% of obese normotensives had LV diastolic dysfunction & 58% of non-obese hypertensive had LV diastolic dysfunction. 2% of obese non-hypertensive individuals had LV systolic dysfunction & 6% of non-obese hypertensive had LV diastolic dysfunction. Hypertension significantly affects LV geometry, LV systolic and diastolic function. Obesity affects LV geometry & diastolic functions of LV even in individuals with preserved systolic function.

Age-Related Outcomes in Heart Failure with Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Objective: This study investigates age-related differences and outcomes in patients hospitalized with heart failure with a mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF). Background: The characterization of patients with HFmrEF and the prognostic value of age has rarely been investigated. Methods: Patients with HFmrEF were retrospectively included at one institution between 2016 and 2022. The distribution of HF aetiology and prognostic outcomes were investigated comparing patients with ≤40, >40 to ≤60, >60 to ≤80, and >80 years of age. The primary endpoint was long-term all-cause mortality. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional regression analyses were applied for statistics. Results: For the present study, 2184 patients with HFmrEF with a median age of 76 years were included. Non-ischemic cardiomyopathy was the most common HF aetiology in patients <40 years of age, whereas patients with 60-80 years of age (60.2%) and >80 years of age (58.2%) had the higher rates of ischemic cardiomyopathies. The risk of long-term all-cause mortality at 30 months was highest in patients with >80 years of age (HR = 2.167; 95% CI 1.928-2.436; p = 0.001), even after multivariable adjustment. Furthermore, patients with >80 years of age had the highest risk of HF-related rehospitalization (HR = 1.529; 95% CI 1.293-1.807; p = 0.001). Conclusions: Ischemic cardiomyopathy represents the most common cause of HF in elderly patients with HFmrEF, whereas younger patients were more likely to suffer from non-ischemic HF aetiologies. Increasing age was an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality in patients hospitalized with HFmrEF.

Evaluation of the Atherogenic Index of Plasma to Predict All-Cause Mortality in Elderly With Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Long-Term Follow-Up.

The Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP) is associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but the relationship between AIP and ACS in elderly patients remains unclear. We investigated the prognostic capability of AIP for in-hospital and long-term mortality in elderly patients with ACS undergoing coronary angiography (CA). We analyzed 627 patients with ACS over 75years of age who were admitted to our clinic between April 2015 and December 2022 and underwent CA. The primary clinical endpoints were in-hospital, 30-day, 1-year, and long-term mortality. The median follow-up time was 27months. AIP was defined as log (triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). In-hospital mortality rates for patients with AIP ≤.1 and AIP >.1 were 4.7% and 17.6% (P < .001), 30-day mortality rates were 8.7% and 32.2% (P = .01), 1-year mortality rates were 12.1% and 45.1% (P < .001), and long-term mortality rates were 47.3% and 67.5% (P < .001), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed AIP, age, left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF), admission creatinine, and Killip ≥2 as independent predictors for long-term mortality. AIP can predict in-hospital and long-time all-cause mortality in elderly patients with ACS undergoing CA. Age, LVEF, admission creatinine, and Killip ≥2 are additional factors that predict long-term all-cause mortality.

The optimal management of blunt aortic injury in the young

BackgroundBlunt aortic injury (BAI) is relatively uncommon in the pediatric population. The goal of this study was to examine the management of BAI in both children and adolescents, using a large national dataset. MethodsPatients (1–19 years of age) with BAI were identified from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) database over 14-years. Patients were stratified by age group (children [ages 1–9] and adolescents [ages 10–19]) and compared. Multivariable logistic regression (MLR) analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of mortality in adolescents with BAI. ResultsAdolescents undergoing TEVAR had similar morbidity (16.8 vs 12.6 ​%, p ​= ​0.057) and significantly reduced mortality (2.1 vs 14.4 ​%, p ​< ​0.0001) compared to those adolescents managed non-operatively. MLR identified use of TEVAR as the only modifiable risk factor significantly associated with reduced mortality (OR 0.138; 95%CI 0.059–0.324, p ​< ​0.0001). ConclusionsBAI leads to significant morbidity and mortality for both children and adolescents. For pediatric patients with BAI, children may be safely managed non-operatively, while an endovascular repair may improve outcomes for adolescents.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Score for Three-Year Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients.

Background and Objectives: Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is a leading cause of death and disability with poor long-term outcomes. Creating a predictive score for long-term mortality in AIS might be important for optimizing treatment strategies. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive score for three-year mortality in patients with AIS using several demographic, clinical, laboratory and imaging parameters. Materials and Methods: This study included 244 AIS patients admitted to a tertiary center and followed up for three years. The patients' data included demographics, clinical features, laboratory tests (including resistin and leptin levels) and imaging parameters. The patients were randomly divided into a predictive group (n = 164) and a validation group (n = 80). Results: Advanced age, a high NIHSS score, low levels of hemoglobin, elevated resistin levels and the presence of carotid plaques were independently associated with three-year mortality. The predictive model incorporated these variables, and it was validated in a separate cohort. Leptin levels did not significantly predict mortality. Conclusions: This study developed and validated a promising predictive score for three-year mortality in patients with AIS. Advanced age, high NIHSS scores, low hemoglobin levels, elevated resistin levels and the presence of carotid plaques were the independent predictors of long-term mortality.

The prognostic utility of Lactate/Albumin*Age score in septic patient with normal lactate level

BackgroundA previous study has shown that the lactate/albumin*age (LAA) score is useful for predicting mortality in patients with sepsis admitted to the ICU. We aimed to evaluate the clinical significance of the LAA score in patients with sepsis who presented to the emergency department (ED) MethodsThis retrospective observational study used data from the Korean Shock Society Registry collected between January 2017 and December 2021. The prognostic performance of the LAA score for predicting the 28-day mortality was evaluated. Lactate and albumin levels were measured immediately after arrival to the ED. ResultsOf the 5346 patients with sepsis, data from 3240 were analyzed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the LAA score (0.737, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.716–0.757), was higher than that of lactate (0.699, 95 % CI 0.677–0.720, p < 0.001), lactate/albumin (LA) ratio (0.730, 95 % CI 0.709–0.751, p = 0.016), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (0.698, 95 % confidence interval 0.676–0.720, p = 0. 004), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores (0.672; 95 % confidence interval 0.649–0.694, p < 0.001). The optimal cut-off value for the LAA score was 119.9. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis according to the optimal cutoff value, the 28-day mortality rates were higher in the high LAA score group (log-rank test, p < 0.001). The LAA score was independently associated with 28-day mortality in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted hazard ratio 2.07, 95 % CI 1.76–2.43, p < 0.001). In the normal (<2 mmol/L) lactate group, the AUROC value for LAA score was higher than LA ratio (normal group 0.674 vs 0.634, p < 0.004). In patients over 65 years old, LAA score (0.731) showed a higher AUROC value than LA ratio (0.725). (p < 0.001) ConclusionThe LAA score may be used as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with sepsis in the emergency department. Our results show that it performs better than serum lactate alone, LA ratio, and SOFA and APACHE II scores. While this suggests that the LAA could provide clinicians with a useful tool for timely early intervention and care planning in patients with a poor prognosis, further validation in large multicenter prospective studies are necessary to confirm its reliability and practicality as a readily available and objective biomarker.

Analysis of metabolic alterations as 30 days intensive care mortality predictors for patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy

BackgroundAcute kidney injury patients on continuous renal replacement therapy are subjected to alterations in metabolism, which in turn are associated with worse clinical outcome and mortality. The aim of this study is to determine which metabolism indicators can be used as independent predictors of 30 days intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. MethodsThis was a prospective observational study on critical care patients on renal replacement therapy. Integrated approach of metabolism evaluation was used, combining the energy expenditure measured by indirect calorimetry, bioelectrical impedance provided fat free mass index (FFMI), amino acid and glucose concentrations. ICU mortality was defined as all cause 30 days mortality. Regression analysis was conducted to determine the conventional and metabolism associated predictors of mortality. ResultsThe study was conducted between the 2021 March and 2022 October. 60 high mortality risk patients (APACHE II of 22.98±7.87, 97% on vasopressors, 100% on mechanical ventilation) were included during the period of the study. The rate of 30 days ICU mortality was 50% (n=30). Differences across survivors and non-survivors in metabolic predictors were noted in energy expenditure (kcal/kg/day) (19.79 ±5.55 vs 10.04 ±3.97 p=0.013), amino acid concentrations (mmol/L) (2.40 ±1.06 vs 1.87 ±0.90 p=0.040) and glucose concentrations (mmol/L) (7.89 ±1.90 vs 10.04 ±3.97 p=0.010). No differences were noted in FFMI (23.38 ±4.25 vs 21.95 ±3.08 p=0.158). In the final linear regression analysis model, lower energy expenditure (exp(B)= 0.852 CI95%: 0.741-0.979 p=0.024) and higher glucose (exp(B)=1.360 CI95%: 1.013-1.824 p=0.041) remained as independent predictors of the higher mortality. ConclusionThe results of the study imply strong association between the metabolic alterations and ICU outcome. Our findings suggest that lower systemic amino acid concentration, lower energy expenditure and higher systemic glucose concentration are predictive of 30 days ICU mortality.