Independent Predictive Factors For Mortality Research Articles

Necrotizing Fasciitis: A Vicious Soft Tissue Infection: Review Article

Background: Necrotizing fasciitis is rapidly progressive, lethaldestructive inflammation with polymicrobialinfection and secondary necrosis. Though it is a disease described from the Hippocratic era, there is an increase inthe incidence of necrotizing fasciitis. The most important factors determining the outcome of the disease are earlydiagnosis and aggressive debridement.Materials and Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in a tertiary care teaching hospital’ssurgical ward. A total of 50 patients, diagnosed with necrotizing fasciitis based on the criteria set were includedin the study. After detailed clinical and laboratory evaluation, appropriate and adequate surgical and medicalinterventions were administered and were followed to note the outcome.Results: The majority of patients were over 40 years old and 74% of them were male. 72% of them had fever, 88% ofthem had tenderness. 68% of the patients had involvement of the lower extremities. Trauma was the predominanttriggering factor and diabetes, the most commonly associated predisposing disease present in 72% of patients.84% of the infections were polymicrobial and E. coli was isolated from 74% of them. 4 patients succumbed to thedisease and 6 patients needed amputations as a life-saving measure. Acidosis and hypoalbuminemia were themost common independent predictive factors for mortality. Once sepsis is overcome and the granulation tissue isformed, the wound is covered with an SSG or flap cover.Conclusion: The aggressive and destructive course of necrotizing fasciitis could lead to morbidity and mortality.Early recognition, aggressive debridement are the essential steps for recovery. Though broad-spectrum antibioticsstarted as empirical therapy to avoid the catastrophe of septic shock, appropriate antibiotics should be started asthe disease is often polymicrobial. Acidosis, truncallocation, leucocytosis and decreased albumin were found to befactors strongly associated with mortality.

Predictive Factors of Mortality in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background: Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is one of the most common medical emergencies and often represents a life-threatening event. The aim of this study is to find potential predictive factors associated with 30-day mortality in patients with NVUGIB. Methods and Results: Our prospective study was conducted in Mother Teresa Hospital between May 2022 and December 2022. A total of 224 patients (aged >18 years) with NVUGIB were included in the study. Demographical and clinical characteristics, endoscopic findings, and laboratory tests were reviewed during a 30-day follow-up period. Logistic regression was employed to identify the independent predictors of mortality. The mean age of the 224 patients enrolled in the study was 63.21±16.3 years and most patients (72.8%) were male. One hundred fifty (66.9%) patients had comorbidities. The most common endoscopic diagnoses underlying NVUGIB episodes were duodenal ulcers (53.1%). Recurrent bleeding was recorded in 50(22.3%) patients. Out of 224 patients included in the study, 24(10.7%) died within 30 days of admission, 20(8.9%) died during hospitalization, and 4(1.8%) died after discharge. The mean age of death was 76.42±12.59 years; 95.8% of deaths were associated with one or more major comorbidities. In the multivariate logistic regression, after the exclusion of confounding factors, low red blood cell (RBC) (P=0.043, OR=0.413, CI 95%: 0.176-0.974), warfarin (P=0.036, OR=10.547, CI 95%: 1.165-95.462), and Rockall score (RS) >5 (P=0.034, OR=4.107, CI 95%: 1.114-15.139) were found to be independent predictive factors for mortality. Conclusion: The 30-day mortality rate remained high after NVUGIB, especially during hospitalization. Low RBC, warfarin, and RS>5 were independent factors of mortality in patients with NVUGIB.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in The Gambia, west Africa: a prospective cohort study

Chronic liver disease is a major cause of premature death in sub-Saharan Africa. Efficacy of antiviral therapy among patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis is not well established in Africa. We described the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in The Gambia and assessed the impact of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) on survival of HBV-infected patients with cirrhosis. In this prospective cohort study, we followed up adults who were consecutively diagnosed with cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma between 2012 and 2015 in The Gambia, west Africa. Patients with chronic HBV infection and cirrhosis, without hepatocellular carcinoma, were offered TDF. Primary outcome was overall survival. To determine the effect of TDF on survival, we performed a Cox proportional hazard regression model with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity score. Of 529 patients enrolled in this study, 336 patients (252 with hepatocellular carcinoma and 84 with cirrhosis) were analysed. Patients were predominantly male (253 [75%] men and 83 [25%] women), with a median age of 42 years (IQR 33-55). 276 (84%) of 327 of patients with data were positive for HBV biomarkers, 31 (10%) of 311 were positive for hepatitis C virus antibodies, and 22 (10%) of 223 were positive for hepatitis D virus antibodies. 64% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma had multifocal tumour, with a median size of 7·5 cm (IQR 5·4-10·8). 173 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and 70 patients with cirrhosis were included in the survival analysis. Median survival was 1·5 months (95% CI 1·1-2·0) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and 17·1 months (11·2-24·0) in patients with cirrhosis (log-rank p<0·0001). In patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, ascites (hazard ratio [HR] 1·78, 95% CI 1·21-2·60), partial or complete portal thrombosis (HR 2·61, 1·58-4·30), and platelet count (HR 1·80, 1·19-2·70) were independent predictive factors of mortality at baseline. In HBV-infected patients with cirrhosis, median turnaround time between cirrhosis diagnosis and TDF initiation was 4·9 months (IQR 3·2-7·3). In IPTW analysis, TDF treatment was associated with improved survival in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis (adjusted HR 0·14, 0·06-0·34; p<0·0001). These results highlight poor survival of patients with cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma as well as the effectiveness of TDF in reducing the premature mortality of patients with cirrhosis and HBV infection. Interventions for early diagnosis and treatment of cirrhosis as well as screening programmes for hepatocellular carcinoma are urgently required in Africa. European Commission and Medical Research Council UK. For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Unplanned surgery after colorectal resection: laparoscopy at the index surgery is a protective factor against mortality.

The aim of this study wasto assess risk factors of mortality after unplanned surgery following colorectal resection. All the consecutive patients who underwent colorectal resection between 2011 and 2020 in a French national cohort were retrospectively included. Perioperative data of the index colorectal resection (indication, surgical approach, pathological analysis, postoperative morbidity), and characteristics of unplanned surgery (indication, time to complication, time to surgical redo) were assessed in order to identify predictive factors of mortality. Among 547 included patients, 54 patients died (10%; 32 men; mean age = 68 ± 18years, range 34-94years). Patients who died were significantly older (75 ± 11 vs 66 ± 12years, p = 0.002), frailer (ASA score 3-4 = 65 vs 25%, p = 0.0001), initially operated through open approach (78 vs 41%, p = 0.0001), and without any anastomosis (17 vs 5%, p = 0.003) than those alive. The presence of colorectal cancer, the time to postoperative complication and the time to unplanned surgery were not significantly associated to the postoperative mortality. After multivariate analysis, 5 independent predictive factors of mortality were identified: old age (OR 1.038; IC 95% 1.006-1.072; p = 0.02), ASA score = 3 (OR 5.9, CI95% 1.2-28.5, p = 0.03), ASA score = 4 (OR 9.6; IC95% 1.5-63; p = 0.02), open approach for the index surgery (OR 2.7; IC95% 1.3-5.7; p = 0.01), and delayed management (OR 2.6; IC95% 1.3-5.3; p = 0.009). After unplanned surgery following colorectal surgery, one out of 10 patients dies. The laparoscopic approach during the index surgery is associated with a good prognosis in the case of unplanned surgery.

The Prognostic Role of In-Hospital Mortality Predictors and De Ritis Ratio in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal System Bleeding

Objective: We aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the aspartate aminotransferase(AST) / alanine aminotransferase (ALT) named as (De Ritis) ratio in patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit with the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Method: We retrospectivelyanalyzed the clinical and laboratory data of 243 patients admitted with upper GI bleeding to the intensive care unit of our tertiary hospital between January 2018 and April 2022. The potential prognostic parameters between survivors and non-survivors groups and then between low De Ritis and High De Ritis groups were compared. The effect of the De Ritis ratio on in-hospital mortality was investigated by logistic regression analysis. Results: Of the two hundred andforty-three patients hospitalized with upper GI bleeding, 65.8% were male. The mean age of the patients was 68.6±11.56. The cut-off value for low and high De Ritis groups was selected as 1.57,which value seperated second tertile and third tertile of the patient population.İn hospital mortality rate was 13.1%. While albumin level was higher in the low De Ritis group, ALT, AST, and INR values were higher in the high De Ritis group. No statistically significant correlation was found between these two groups in terms of mortality. Moreover, De Ritis ratio did not show a significant difference between survivors and non-survivors (p=0.058). Conclusion: It was concluded that the rate of De Ritis is not an independent predictive factor for mortality in patients with upper GI bleeding. But, more prospective and randomized studies are needed to evaluate clearly the prognostic value of the De Ritis ratio in upper GI bleeding patients. Keywords: De Ritis ratio, aspartate aminotransaminase, alanineaminotransaminase, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, mortality

Role of a Chest X-ray Severity Score in a Multivariable Predictive Model for Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: A Single-Center, Retrospective Study.

Predicting the mortality risk of patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) can be valuable in allocating limited medical resources in the setting of outbreaks. This study assessed the role of a chest X-ray (CXR) scoring system in a multivariable model in predicting the mortality of COVID-19 patients by performing a single-center, retrospective, observational study including consecutive patients admitted with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 and an initial CXR. The CXR severity score was calculated by three radiologists with 12 to 15 years of experience in thoracic imaging, based on the extent of lung involvement and density of lung opacities. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictive factors for mortality to create a predictive model. A validation dataset was used to calculate its predictive value as the AUROC. A total of 628 patients (58.1% male) were included in this study. Age (p < 0.001), sepsis (p < 0.001), S/F ratio (p < 0.001), need for mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001), and the CXR severity score (p = 0.005) were found to be independent predictive factors for mortality. We used these variables to develop a predictive model with an AUROC of 0.926 (0.891, 0.962), which was significantly higher than that of the WHO COVID severity classification, 0.853 (0.798, 0.909) (one-tailed p-value = 0.028), showing that our model can accurately predict mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

AB0456 HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE MIGHT REDUCE MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS

Background:Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a devastating disease that has a profound impact on life expectancy, reflected by a standardised mortality ratio of 3,5. There is still limited data regarding the predictive factors for mortality in patients with SSc. Determining those factors could guide in disease management and follow up.1Objectives:We aimed to identify the predictive factors for death in SSc.Methods:Patients followed in a tertiary rheumatology clinic in the last 5 years were included in this retrospective study. All of the patients met the ACR / EULAR SSc 2013 criteria. Medical records of the patients were reviewed. Follow up time was defined as the time period from the first admission of the patient to our rheumatology clinic until the date of death or the date on which the study was performed. Candidate predictive factors for mortality were tested by Kaplan-Meier (with Log rank) and Cox-regression analyses.Results:In total 146 patients (mean age 55.6±12.3 years, female 89.7%, diffuse cutaneous type SSc 45.2%) were included in the study (Table 1). The mean age at diagnosis of study group was 48±13.7 years. The median duration of follow up was 71 (6-228) months. Fourteen (10%) patients died during follow-up. The causes of death were: pulmonary (7), renal (2) and cardiac diseases (1), infection (3) and cancer (1).Univariate analysis revealed that age at diagnosis (p=0.028), SSc subtype (p=0.035), the presence of interstitial lung disease (p=0.002), oesophageal involvement (on computed tomography) (p=0.030), pulmonary artery systolic pressure of ≥35 mmHg (measured by transthoracic echocardiography) (p=0.004), glucocorticoid (p=0.029), hydroxychloroquine (p=0.002) and cyclophosphamide (p=0.006) usage at any time were associated with mortality (Figure 1). Multivariate analyses model formed with age at diagnosis (B: 0.055, 95% CI, 1.005-1.112; p=0.033), SSc subtype (B: 0.963, 95% CI 0.541-12.684; p=0.231), glucocorticoid (B: 1.396, 95% CI, 0.487-33.507; p=0.196) and hydroxychloroquine usage (B: -1.50, 95% CI, 0.061-0.816; p=0.023) showed that age at diagnosis and hydroxychloroquine usage were independent predictive factors for mortality in patients with SSc.Conclusion:The results of the study revealed for the first time that apart from the age at diagnosis hydroxychloroquine might reduce mortality in patients with SSc. Further studies are needed to prove of this information.

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis mortality trends of cirrhotic patients in the last decade in Constanta County.

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a complication of liver cirrhosis with an increased in-hospital mortality rate. For this reason, the aim of the present study was to examine the main predictors of mortality in order to be able to identify high-risk patients in time and to guide the optimal treatment for prognosis improvement. We retrospectively collected demographic, clinical, laboratory and treatment data as well as data regarding length of stay and cost of hospitalization from 72 patients diagnosed with SBP between January 2010 and December 2019 in the Emergency Clinical Hospital St. Apostle Andrew, Constanta, Romania. Patients were divided into two groups: Those who survived and those who died. Logistic regression was used to identify a possible association between these factors and the increased risk of mortality. Univariate analysis revealed that clinical factors (fever, chills, and hepatic encephalopathy), biological factors such as serum and ascites leukocyte value, polymorphonuclear percentage (PMN), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) value, previous SBP episodes, and the presence of complications such as acute kidney injury (AKI), sepsis, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with SBP. Multivariate analysis revealed that SIRS (P=0.0010) and fever (P=0.0258) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with SBP. Findings of the present study suggest that, SIRS and fever were independent predictive factors of mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP.

Novel and Simple Criteria for Predicting Mortality of Peptic Ulcer Disease.

Objective Conventional risk scores of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) are based on many parameters, and their application in clinical practice is therefore limited. The aim of this study was to establish simple and reliable criteria for predicting PUD-associated mortality. Methods A total of 499 patients with PUD were divided into 2 groups: the training cohort (n=333) and the validation cohort (n=166). To minimize selection bias due to missing values, we used imputed datasets generated by the multiple imputation method (training-cohort dataset, n=33,300; validation-cohort dataset, n=16,600). Results In the training-cohort dataset, the heart rate-to-systolic blood pressure ratio (HR/SBP) and serum albumin (s-Alb) level were significant independent predictive factors for mortality according to the multivariate analysis [HR/SBP, odds ratio (OR): 1.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-2.80, p=0.028; s-Alb, OR: 0.23, 95% CI, 0.11-0.51, p<0.001]. The model comprising HR/SBP and s-Alb was able to detect mortality due to PUD with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.855. In the validation-cohort dataset, this model also showed good efficacy with an AUC of 0.835. The novel criteria combining HR/SBP and s-Alb developed by a decision tree analysis showed 73.3% sensitivity and 87.6% specificity for predicting mortality in the total-cohort dataset. Our criteria were superior to the Glasgow Blatchford and Rockall scores and similar to the AIMS65 and Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva scores for predicting mortality. Conclusion The combination of the HR/SBP ratio and s-Alb level is a good predictor of mortality in patients with PUD.

Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients with septic shock.

Patients with liver cirrhosis and septic shock have a significantly higher risk of mortality and morbidity compared with non-cirrhotic patients. The peripheral blood lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) can determine the prognosis of cirrhotic patients. Our study aimed to investigate the usefulness of LMR as a predictive marker of mortality risk in cirrhotic patients with septic shock. This single-center, retrospective case-control study included adult patients who visited the emergency department between January 1, 2018 and June 30, 2020 and diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and septic shock. They were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups according to their survival status at the 60-day follow-up. We used a Cox proportional hazards regression model to identify independent factors associated with mortality risk and tested the mortality discriminative ability of those factors using the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 93 patients were eligible for this study. Compared with the patients in the survivor group, those in the non-survivor group had significantly higher Child-Pugh (11±2 vs. 9±2, p<0.001) and MELD scores (29±6 vs. 22±8, p<0.001), higher serum international normalized ratio (1.7 vs.1.4, p=0.03), bilirubin (6.0 vs. 3.3mg/dL, p=0.02), lactate (5.4 vs. 2.7mmol/L, p<0.01), creatinine (2.2 vs. 1.6mg/dL, p=0.04), higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (13.0 vs. 10.3, p=0.02), and lower LMR (1.1 vs. 2.3, p<0.01). The LMR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.54, p=0.01) and lactate (aHR=1.03, p<0.01) were identified as independent predictive factors for mortality in the multivariate regression model. Furthermore, LMR (area under curve [AUC]: 0.87) revealed a superior discrimination ability in mortality prediction compared with the Child-Pugh (AUC: 0.72) and MELD (AUC: 0.76) scores. The LMR can be used to predict mortality risk in cirrhotic patients with septic shock.

Type of underlying fracture after the surgical treatment of geriatric trauma patients has no effect on mortality during intensive care treatment.

Due to demographic change, the number of geriatric patients is still rising. Although hip fractures are the subject of current research, little is known about the remaining geriatric trauma entities. The aim of this study was to collect data of the age-related traumatological intensive care unit (ICU) population, its underlying diagnosis, and the influence on mortality and length of stay in the ICU. Geriatric trauma patients (aged ≥65 years) treated postoperatively in our surgical ICU were included in this retrospective observational study covering the period 2013-2017. In addition to the underlying fracture entities, patient characteristics, such as age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, length of stay and mortality, were collected to identify possible independent predictive factors for mortality in the ICU using multivariate analysis. During the observation period, 805 (60.5%) patients met the inclusion criteria. 47.6% of the patients suffered from a proximal femoral fracture. The total mortality rate during the stay in the ICU was 7.5%. Significant predictive factors for mortality in the ICU were Charlson Comorbidity Index (P < 0.001) and length of stay (P < 0.001). The different fracture types themselves were not a significant risk factor for mortality (P = 0.862). Patients with proximal femoral fractures account for approximately half of the patients in intensive care. The mortality rate of these patients is no higher than that in geriatric trauma patients with other fractures. The progression is essentially influenced by the patient's comorbidities. Nowadays, the focus shifts from trauma care to the therapy of concomitant diseases. Nevertheless, this cohort, when adequately treated, shows a comparatively low mortality rate. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 1120-1125.

Prediction model for death in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis accompanied by respiratory failure in ICU: retrospective study.

The mortality rate of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients with respiratory failure remains high. This study aimed to identify factors contributing to death in these patients, and develop a mortality prediction model for pulmonary TB patients with respiratory failure. A retrospective study of patients admitted consecutively to the medical ICU of Beijing Chest Hospital, (Beijing, China), Chaoyang Fourth Hospital (Liaoning, China) and Hebi Third People's Hospital (Henan, China) from May 2018 to May 2019 was conducted. 153 patients with pulmonary TB accompanied by respiratory failure were enrolled. A multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for death. A predictive fatality score was determined. The utility of the score for predicting death was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The patients' median age was 57.82±19.42 years (17.0-87.0 years) and there were 106 males (69.28%). The mortality rate was 39.22% (60 of 153). Independent predictive factors of mortality included the PaO2 (hazard ratio 0.928, 95% CI: 0.882 - 0.976, P=0.004), Albumin (hazard ratio 0.881, 95% CI: 0.792- 0.980, P=0.019), Apache II score (hazard ratio 1.120, 95% CI: 1.017-1.234, P=0.022) and C-reactive protein (hazard ratio 1.012, 95% CI: 1.004-1.019, P=0.003). Establishing a logistic model of the death risk grade of pulmonary TB with respiratory failure was Y=1.710 - 0.068*PaO2-0.163* albumin + 0.215* Apache II +0.012* C-reactive protein. The value was Y=-0.494. If the Y value was greater than or equal to -0.494, the patients belonged to the deceased group, and if less than -0.494 the patients belonged to the survival group. AUC=0.818, The sensitivity was 83.3%; specificity was 73.1%. Pulmonary TB patients with respiratory failure have a high mortality rate and poor prognosis, particularly those with high Apache II scores, high C-reactive protein levels, low PaO2 admission to ICU and low albumin level. The prediction model will help assess the risk of death in patients with TB and respiratory failure.

Hypoalbuminemia predicts the outcome of COVID-19 independent of age and co-morbidity.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) has evolved into a pandemic rapidly. Most of the literature show that the elevated liver enzymes in COVID‐19 are of little clinical significance. Lower albumin level is seen in severe COVID‐19 and is not parallel to the changes in alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase levels. We aimed to explore the impact of hypoalbuminemia in COVID‐19. This retrospective cohort study included adult patients with confirmed COVID‐19. The relationship between hypoalbuminemia and death was studied using binary logistic analysis. A total of 299 adult patients were included, 160 (53.5%) were males and the average age was 53.4 ± 16.7 years. The median time from the onset of illness to admission was 3 days (interquartile ranges, 2‐5). Approximately one‐third of the patients had comorbidities. Hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/L) was found in 106 (35.5%) patients. The difference in albumin was considerable between survivors and non‐survivors (37.6 ± 6.2 vs 30.5 ± 4.0, P < .001). Serum albumin level was inversely correlated to white blood cell (r = –.149, P = .01) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (r = −.298, P < .001). Multivariate analysis showed the presence of comorbidities (OR, 6.816; 95% CI, 1.361‐34.133), lymphopenia (OR, 13.130; 95% CI, 1.632‐105.658) and hypoalbuminemia (OR, 6.394; 95% CI, 1.315‐31.092) were independent predictive factors for mortality. In conclusion, hypoalbuminemia is associated with the outcome of COVID‐19. The potential therapeutic value of albumin infusion in COVID‐19 should be further explored at the earliest.

Does the preoperative platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predict morbidity after gastrectomy for gastric cancer?

BackgroundGastric cancer is the 2nd most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and the morbidity rate after surgery is reported to be as high as 46%. The estimation of possible complications, morbidity, and mortality and the ability to specify patients at high risk have become substantial for an intimate follow-up and for proper management in the intensive care unit. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of the preoperative platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and their relations with clinical outcomes and complications after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.MethodsThis single-center, retrospective cohort study evaluated the data of 292 patients who underwent gastrectomy with curative intent between January 2015 and June 2018 in a tertiary state hospital in Ankara, Turkey. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to evaluate the ability of laboratory values to predict clinically relevant postoperative complications. The area under the curve was computed to compare the predictive power of the NLR and PLR. Then, the cutoff points were selected as the stratifying values for the PLR and NLR.ResultsThe area under the curve values of the PLR (0.60, 95% CI 0.542–0.657) and NLR (0.556, 95% CI 0.497–0.614) were larger than those of the other preoperative laboratory values. For the PLR, the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 50.00 and 72.22%, respectively, whereas for the NLR, the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 37.50 and 80.16%, respectively. The PLR was related to morbidity, whereas the relation of the NLR with mortality was more prominent. This study demonstrated that the PLR and NLR may predict mortality and morbidity via the Clavien-Dindo classification in gastric cancer patients. The variable was grade ≥ 3 in the Clavien-Dindo classification, including complications requiring surgical or endoscopic interventions, life-threatening complications, and death. Both the PLR and NLR differed significantly according to Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ 3. In this analysis, the PLR was related to morbidity, while the NLR relation with mortality was more intense.ConclusionBased on the results of the study, the PLR and NLR could be used as independent predictive factors for mortality and morbidity in patients with gastric cancer.

Predictors of clinical outcomes after cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients \u226575\u2009years of age: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundCardiac resynchronization therapy has been shown to benefit selected patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Older patients have been underrepresented in randomized trials. This study was conducted to determine whether predictive factors for cardiac resynchronization therapy outcomes differ in patients older and younger than 75 years of age.MethodsConsecutive patients who received a cardiac resynchronization device cardiac resynchronization therapy between 2013 and 2016 in our center were retrospectively included in this cohort study. The primary endpoint was cardiac resynchronization therapy effectiveness, which was defined as survival for one year with both no heart failure hospitalization and improvement by one or more NYHA class. The secondary endpoints were mortality, complications, and device therapies.ResultsAmong the 243 patients included, 102 were ≥ 75 years old. Cardiac resynchronization therapy effectiveness was observed in 70 patients (50%) < 75 years old and in 48 patients (47%) ≥75 years old (p = 0.69). NYHA class ≥III (OR = 6.02; CI95% [1.33–18.77], p = 0.002) was a predictive factor for cardiac resynchronization therapy effectiveness only in the ≥75-year-old group, while atrial fibrillation was independently negatively associated with the primary endpoint in the < 75-year-old group (OR = 0.28; CI95% [0.13–0.62], p = 0.001). The one-year mortality rate was 14%, with no difference between age groups. Rescue cardiac resynchronization therapy and atrial fibrillation were independent predictive factors for mortality in both age groups. Eighty-two complications occurred in 45 patients (19%), with no difference between groups. Defibrillator use and QRS duration were independent predictive factors for complications in both age groups. There was no difference between groups considering device therapies.ConclusionAt one year, cardiac resynchronization therapy response is not compromised by patient age. In older patients, highly symptomatic individuals with NYHA class ≥III have better outcomes after cardiac resynchronization therapy.

Predictive factors for the mortality of acute pancreatitis on admission

Background and aimsThe revised Atlanta classification is widely used for the evaluation of acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. However, this classification cannot be used within 48 hours of AP onset. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive factors of mortality in patients with AP on admission.MethodsWe evaluated the association between AP mortality and clinical parameters at the time of admission in patients with AP from April 2013 to December 2017 at one university hospital and one tertiary care referral center.ResultsA total of 203 consecutive patients were enrolled. Nine patients (4.4%) died despite multidisciplinary treatment. In a multivariable analysis, hematocrit ≥ 40% (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.13; P = 0.021), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) ≥ 40 mg/dL (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.11–1.42; P < 0.001), base excess < -3.0 mmol/L (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04–1.26; P = 0.004), and inflammation extending to the rectovesical excavation (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.10–1.30; P < 0.001) on admission were significantly associated with mortality.ConclusionAmong the imaging findings, inflammation extending to the rectovesical excavation was the only independent predictive factor for mortality in AP. This simple finding, obtained on computed tomography without contrast agent on admission, might be a promising prognostic factor for AP.

Electrocardiogram Changes as an Independent Predictive Factor of Mortality in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke; a Cohort Study.

Various factors such as age and severity of the stroke have been deemed connected with risk of mortality in patients with acute ischemic brain stroke. The present study was performed with the aim of evaluating the role of electrocardiogram (ECG) changes in predicting the outcome of these patients. In this cohort study, patients who had presented to the emergency department of a teaching hospital during 1 year and were diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke were evaluated. Demographic data and 12-lead ECG findings of the patients were gathered and their relationship with 1-year mortality was analyzed. Finally, 546 stroke patients with the mean age of 69.5±12.7 (24 - 100) years were studied (53.3% female). 82.7% of the studied patients had at least one of the evaluated ECG abnormalities. The most common ECG findings included normal sinus rhythm (27.3%), inverted T wave (21.2%), sinus tachycardia (11.7%), atrial fibrillation (AF) (11.5%), and pathologic Q wave (9.9%). In the end, 117 (20.9%) patients died during the 1-year follow-up. Frequencies of non-sinus rhythm (p < 0.0001), inverted T wave (p = 0.0001), AF rhythm (p<0.0001), pathologic Q (p<0.0001), ST segment changes (p = 0.011), and atrioventricular (AV) node block (p = 0.007) were significantly higher in patients who died. ECG changes increased the odds of 1-year mortality of these patients 4 times (Odds ratio = 4.05 with 95% CI: 2.39 - 6.87; p < 0.0001). Additionally, age over 60 years and having a history of cardiac diseases increased the odds of mortality 6 (95% CI: 1.4 - 27.9) and 1.5 (95% CI: 0.9 - 2.1) times, respectively. Based on the findings of the present study, it seems that along with age and history of cardiac diseases, ECG changes can be considered as an independent predictive factor of mortality in patients with ischemic stroke.

Abstracts of the 11th International Conference on Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle Wasting, Maastricht, The Netherlands, 7–9 December 2018 (Part 2)

Abstracts of the 11^th International Conference on Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle Wasting, Maastricht, The Netherlands, 7–9 December 2018 (Part 2)

Prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction: Insights from the COMMIT-HF registry.

Previous studies have reported that in patients with heart failure, an increased value of red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with adverse outcomes. Nonetheless, data regarding the association between RDW values and long-term mortality in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) are lacking. The aim of this investigation was to examine the relationship between mortality and RDW in patients with ischemic and non-ischemic LVSD. Under analysis was 1734 patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 35% of whom were hospitalized between 2009 and 2013. Patients were divided into three groups based on RDW tertiles. Low, medium and high tertiles were defined as RDW ≤ 13.4%, 13.4% < RDW ≤ 14.6% and RDW > 14.6%, respectively. There was a stepwise relationship between RDW intervals and comorbidities. Patients with the highest RDW values were older and more often diagnosed with anemia, diabetes, atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease. The main finding of our analysis was the presence of an 8-fold increase in all-cause mortality in the entire cohort between high and low RDW tertile. Cox hazard analysis identi-fied RDW as an independent predictive factor of mortality in all patients (HR 2.8; 95% CI 2.1-3.8; p < 0.0001) and in subgroups of patients with ischemic (HR 2.8; 95% CI 2.0-3.9; p < 0.0001) and non-ischemic (HR 3.3; 95% CI 2.01-5.5; p < 0.0001) LVSD. The highest RDW tertile was independently associated with higher long-term mortality compared with low and medium tertiles, both in all patients with a LVEF ≤ 35% and in subgroups of patients with ischemic and non-ischemic LVSD.

Risk factors for mortality in patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia: Clinical impact of mucA gene mutation.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa frequently colonizes the lungs of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Mucoid conversion is a hallmark of chronic P. aeruginosa infection, which is mediated by mucA gene mutations. The aim of this study is to identify predictive factors for mortality and the influence of mucA gene mutation in COPD patients with P. aeruginosa pneumonia. This study assessed 75 COPD patients with P. aeruginosa pneumonia at two university hospitals. The clinical and laboratory data were collected, and the P. aeruginosa isolates analyzed for the presence of mucA gene mutations. MucA gene mutation of P. aeruginosa was an independent predictor of mortality (odds ratio [OR] 10.43, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53-70.90, p = 0.017). In addition, the APACHE II score and C-reactive protein/Albumin (CA) ratio were independent predictive factors for mortality (OR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.07-1.46, p = 0.004; and OR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10, p = 0.003, respectively). The optimal cutoff value of CA ratio for the greatest sensitivity and specificity was calculated as 31.27 (sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 80.3%). CA ratio and mucA gene mutation of P. aeruginosa could be used as predictors to identify poor prognosis in COPD patients with P. aeruginosa pneumonia.