Independence Referendums Research Articles

Self-determination vs. state sovereignty. What are the determinants of agreed-upon independence referendums in liberal democracies?

ABSTRACT Secession referendums can help to resolve the tension between self-determination and state sovereignty. Nevertheless, not all state governments accept holding such consultations in collaboration with secessionist movements. This article tackles this issue by focusing on the determinants of agreed and non-agreed upon independence referendums. Through a statistical analysis based on a dataset of independence referendums held in liberal democracies from 1945 to 2022 (N = 70), we demonstrate that the decision of the parent state’s government to agree to an independence referendum depends on two factors. The first is the perception of competition and/or electoral proximity to the referendum demand. The second depends on the expectation of the low cost of an eventual secession – at least in terms of population, area and natural resources. Accordingly, we propose a general model designed to predict the disposition of a liberal democracy to agree to an independence referendum.

Legality of implementing Kurdistan Region Referendum

Referendum is one of the strong tools of state-building process and self-determination of nations. Nations express themselves through a peaceful referendum in which they vote on their own desired framework of the wider state and to establish their own way of life. Referendum is an ancient practice and has been implemented in the United State Confederate and France after the French revolution. Recently, it has been implemented in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in September, 2017. As such, it cannot be overemphasized the critical importance of the need for a referendum, which is an essential tool to safeguard the self-determination of nations all over the world. The process of referendum can be implemented via bilateral agreements between the central and regional governments under the constitution and monitored by relevant international monitoring bodies. Nevertheless, the process can also be conducted unilaterally by regions, federal states and regional governments, in case the central governments are not willing to collaborate. The Kurdish and Catalan Independence Referendums represent the will of the Kurds and Catalans for independence from their respective central governments. These two central governments were annexing Catalonia and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq by force. In the past, the people Catalonia and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have been trying with various forms of struggle and eandouvers in order to achieve the goal of independence. Owing to a strong legal basis of the referendum, the authorities in the Kurdistan Region and Catalonia have realized that holding a peaceful referendum could be the most effective way of securing independence from their respective occupiers. Despite of the solid legal grounds of referendum, which was held in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and the overwhelming majority which voted in the favor of the independence, the results were later suspended by the Kurdistan Regional Government mainly because of the lack of regional and international support it needed.

Comparing Independence Referendums: Why Do Some States Accept Them while Others Do Not?

ABSTRACT This article aims to explain why some central governments accept to hold independence referendums while others refuse to do so. For this purpose, this investigation assesses a series of seven hypotheses on 131 international cases of secession consultations from 1944 to 2021 extracted from an updated version of the Contested sovereignty dataset. The results of the logistic regression model identify four relevant variables. In the first place, the competition/proximity model and the time variable explain the support brought by central governments for the organisation of self-determination referendums. Additionally, the study shows that the quality of democracy influences the decision to allow minorities to hold independence consultations. Finally, and with a lower level of significance, it is also argued that periods of previous violence incite host state authorities to agree to hold self-determination referendums.

The rise of research on independence referendums

This study consisted in undertaking a bibliographical search within the Web of Science Core Collection from January 1900 to December 2020. A total of 637 publications were identified and divided into 9 sections tackling successively the relevance of independence referendums, the biased authorship, the definition of the phenomenon, the technical features of referendums, the elaboration of comparative datasets, the legitimacy of these consultations, the drivers leading to the organisation of independence referendums, the impact of referendums on settling ethnic violence and their capacity to favour state recognition. We affirm that those publications have advanced our knowledge about independence referendums. We also stress the persistence of a high fragmentation of authorship and approaches limiting the adoption of a common vocabulary, validation methods and consistent datasets allowing the accumulation and replication of analyses for establishing robust theories. In conclusion, we indicate some theoretical blind spots which could constitute a future research agenda.

„Chybiona analogia”– czyli o różnicach między referendum w Szkocji i Katalonii

„Misleading analogy”: About Differences Between Referendum in Scotland and Catalonia Separatist aspirations in Europe are now a captivating issue. Regions like Scotland and Catalonia deserve special attention. The aim of the article is to show differences in the perception of both cases, due to their frequent comparing in journalistic papers. The study consists of two parts that concern Scotland and Catalonia. In each of them the institutional and legal positions of the regions were taken into the consideration. In addition, the course of events in Scotland and Catalonia in 2014 and 2017 was considered in the context of the independence referendums carried out in these regions. The summary of this article consists of comparison of the factors which show that there are no grounds for adapting analogy between Scotland and Catalonia. Factors that have been taken into account are: the legal order and the regulations used to define the legal status of the regions, and also the relations between central and subnational (regional) levels in Scotland and Catalonia.

Plebiscitarianism Revisited: A Typology of Independence Referendums

AbstractThis article explores the strategic functions of independence referendums. These referendums are normally framed as popular decisions on statehood over a certain territory. However, I argue that the popular will does not always have the decisory function that plebiscitarian theories suggest. In fact, actual decision referendums are rare; often independence referendums are instead used strategically as a leverage and signalling tactic. The article is structured as follows. First, I propose two key criteria to classify independence referendums regarding actors and timing. Through the application of these criteria, I build a typology proposing four main uses of referendums: leverage, signalling, decision and ratification. Second, I focus on the specific case of leverage referendums. I argue that analyzing the outcomes of leverage referendums can provide some clues about why secessionists still call for these referendums even though they almost never result in internationally recognized statehood. Finally, I conclude by discussing the implications of my findings.

Emotions and voting behavior in self-determination referendums: the case of New Caledonia in 2018

In this article we examine the impact of emotions in an independence referendum. New Caledonia – a French Pacific territory with 270,000 inhabitants – held a self-determination referendum in November 2018, in which 56% of the voters opted to remain a part of France. We conducted a post-referendum survey with 1496 respondents that included a specific battery to measure emotions as well as control variables. We find that experiencing anger with the national status of the territory increases the probability of voting for independence, while experiencing pride reduces it. These results remain after controlling for partisan, ethnic and national identification, expected effects of independence as well as sociodemographic factors. Moreover, emotions and identity interact and increase the effect of (the lack of) national identification. Beyond the effects of the traditional control variables, the results suggest that knowledge about voting behavior in independence referendums is transferable to decolonization in Pacific Islands.

Why do central states accept holding independence referendums? Analyzing the role of state peripheries

Why do central states accept holding independence referendums if they could lose a part of their territory during this process? Several variables have been proposed to explain this contradiction, but the most robust one has proved to be the competition-proximity model formulated by Qvortrup (2014). This paper challenges this theory by stressing the role of state peripheries. According to our approach, central governments are more likely to risk losing poor and isolated territories if they represent a cost for the host state. Drawing on an updated version of the contested sovereignty data set (1776–2019) by Mendez and Germann (2018), this paper demonstrates statistically that the “peripheriness” variables related to the economy and – especially – location are significant. Consequently, the competition-proximity model remains the best-fitted scheme for explaining central governments’ decision-making, but it can be amended slightly by taking into account the peripheral nature of separatist regions.

Complexities of Polish migrant's citizenship attributions in the context of Brexit and the Scottish Independence Referendums

This article focuses on the experiences of Scotland's largest foreign-born minority group, namely Poles, in the run-up to the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 and subsequently the UK's EU Referendum. Through exploring Polish migrant residents initial responses and experiences with regard to both referendums, this article (1) outlines perspectives on blurred and contested boundaries and formations of citizenships and (2) the implications of complex and changing relations between citizenship attributions (e.g. political participation, legal status of citizenship and sense of belonging) on the process of citizenship formation. This article therefore offers a greater understanding of the transformation of traditional state-centric concepts of citizenship rights into the shifting borders and character of citizenship formation during the times of political uncertainties.

Exploring the Legality of the Constitutional and Independence Referendums in Nagorno-Karabakh under International Law

Abstract As a result of the constitutional referendum held on 20 February 2017 in the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, both the name and administration of the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh changed. According to the new Constitution, adopted with an 87 per cent majority, Nagorno-Karabakh’s name is now the Republic of Artsakh, its Armenian name, and the system is changing from semi-presidential to presidential. This study discusses the legality of the referendum, the third since Nagorno-Karabakh was established in 1991; it evaluates the referendum in the context of the secession and the right to self-determination in international law. Having looked at similar cases, the article challenges the compatibility of all referenda held in the region with the uti possidetis juris principle and principle of territorial integrity under international law.

Breaking up is hard to do: The Neil Sedaka theory of independence referendums

This article analyses the factors conducive to recognising independence referendums and to winning these votes. After a tour d’horizon of the history of referendums on independence and a summary of the legal position, this article argues that independence referendums are most likely to be implemented when this is in the interest of the three Western powers on the UN Security Council. While there is a statistically significant correlation between the support for independence (the yes-vote) and international recognition, this is much lower than the 100% association between support of the three permanent Western powers on the Security Council and international recognition. Countries may cite legal, democratic and philosophical principles, but the statistical and historical facts suggest that these are of secondary importance when it comes to recognising states after independence referendums.

The Political Use of de facto Referendums of Independence The Case of Catalonia

ABSTRACT Referendums on independence in liberal democracies are rare, even more so when held without the agreement of the central government. On 1 October 2017, a referendum on independence took place in Catalonia despite the opposition of Spanish central authorities and the lack of Constitutional support. This article analyses and attempts to explain this case of a de facto referendum in the international context of independence referendums. We consider both strategic culture and rationality as relevant factors for explaining the political actors' behaviour. Although the political use of popular mobilisation through a referendum to strengthen legitimacy is common among this type of referendums, the Catalan case presents relevant peculiarities since it occurred in a liberal democracy, the civil society were instrumental in making the vote possible, and central authorities repressed both the organisation of the vote and the voters themselves. Our case study analysis can be used in future research on self-determination conflicts and independence referendums.

Referendums as a political party gamble: A critical analysis of the Kurdish referendum for independence

This article brings the case of the Kurdish referendum for independence into the wider literature on independence referendums. It examines the decision to hold an independence referendum and explores the pre-referendum conditions and the post-referendum consequences. The article argues that the referendum in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq was held due to internal political competition and party politics rather than the ripeness of the timing for independence. Theoretically, this article adds a new dimension to the scholarship on independence referendums, as it demonstrates that the purposes of independence referendums can go beyond the question put to the population – such as consolidating popular support by connecting to the population’s nationalist desires, despite independence not being a realistic prospect. Finally, it brings further support for previous findings of the importance of international support for independence referendums.

Economic Rationales for Secession: The Role of Regional Redistribution in Moderating Independence Aspirations

Little is known about how secessionist movements gain momentum and the factors that govern political decision making in independence referendums. I study how economic considerations shape voting intentions in a hypothetical independence referendum in Greenland. Respondents that are randomly exposed to information about the fiscal dependency on the current political union are 44 percent more likely to vote 'no' to independence. There are two channels that account for this effect. Firstly, exposure to negative economic information influences voting by making respondents' prospective economic evaluations of independence more pessimistic. Secondly, the information prime rallies undecided voters with negative economic expectations to vote, and thereby changes the voter composition. I rule out that a shift in salience towards the economic challenges associated with independence explain the findings. The present study reveals a high degree of voting behaviour malleability in a non-western setting; the change induced by the information prime would swing the entire independence referendum.

Independence referendums and nationalist rhetoric: the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Using the case study of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and the 2017 independence referendum, this article examines the nexus between independence referendums, nationalism and political power. It argues that the referendum in the KRI was held due to internal political competition and growing rebellion from the population against the poor economic performance and political situation rather than because the time was right for independence referendum. Focusing on the poor political and financial dynamics, as well as the lack of regional and international support for Kurdish independence, the article argues that independence was not a realistic goal and was rather used as a distraction amid internal turmoil. The example of the referendum in the KRI poses questions about the democratic credibility of such referenda, as the population were voting for an unachievable result and the referendum itself became a tool of internal political competition.

Explaining accommodation and resistance to demands for independence referendums in the UK and Spain

AbstractThis article examines why the UK Government accepted the 2014 Scottish independence referendum while the Spanish Government opposes a similar referendum in Catalonia. Adopting a most similar research design, we argue that the variation is best explained by perceived political opportunities by the two ruling parties. These are embedded in different conceptions of the state and constitutional designs, mostly mononational in Spain and mostly plurinational in the UK but multiple and contested in both cases. In Spain, vote‐seeking calculations incentivise the Popular Party to oppose a referendum, while its mononational conception of the state and the Spanish constitutional design provide a further constraint and a discursive justification for their position. In the UK, David Cameron's accommodating position was based on the view that the Scottish referendum was low risk – as support for independence was minimal – with a high reward: the annihilation of the independence demand. The Conservatives have recently adopted a more restrictive position because seeming political advantage has changed. The findings suggest that independence referendums will continue to be rare events.

A survey of Scottish fishermen ahead of Brexit: political, social and constitutional attitudes

There is a substantial amount of literature that focuses on the governance of offshore fisheries in Europe and abroad, the history of fishing industries in different countries, and anthropological studies of fishing communities around the world. There is also a large amount of literature that explores the attitudes of fishermen towards fisheries governance and management. However, there is very little research that has explored the political attitudes of fishermen through the use of quantitative survey data. Using a survey carried out just ahead of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, this paper analyses data from a sample of Scottish skippers who work on vessels over 10 m in length. The paper focuses on how fishermen in Scotland vote at both UK and Scottish elections, how they voted in the Scottish independence and EU referendums, their political and social attitudes and their demographic breakdown. On the EU referendum, the paper finds that fishermen, as well intending to overwhelmingly voting to leave the EU, did so for instrumental reasons in the belief that this course of action would benefit them and their industry.

The Legality of the Catalan Independence Referendums

The Legality of the Catalan Independence Referendums

Constitutional Judges and Secession. Lessons from Canada … twenty years later

Abstract In constitutional theory, the referendum is an instrument that allows for the expression of the popular will in government decisions and through which people are asked to vote directly on an issue or policy. Over the last decades, the referendum has been the instrument used by minority groups to claim their independence supported by popular will. This paper examines trends in constitutional jurisprudence on the issue of independence referendums. The birth of this constitutional trend can be found in the 1998 decision by the Supreme Court of Canada in the Reference Re Secession of Quebec. The principles developed therein have been further explored in two recent cases, issued by the Italian Constitutional), and by the Spanish Constitutional Tribunal in the latest decision of the Catalonia saga (Judgment no. 114/2017).

Agenda control in EU referendum campaigns: The power of the anti‐EU side

AbstractEuropean Union (EU) referendums provide unique opportunities to study voters’ attitudes toward a distant level of governance. Scholars have long tried to understand whether EU referendum results reflect domestic (dis‐)satisfaction with the incumbent governments or actual attitudes toward the Union. Finding evidence supporting both domestic and European factors, the recent focus has thus turned to referendum campaigns. Recent studies emphasise the importance of the information provided to voters during these campaigns in order to analyse how domestic or European issues become salient in the minds of voters. These studies nonetheless overlook the asymmetrical political advantage in such campaigns. The broader literature on referendums and public opinion suggest that in a referendum, the ‘No’ side typically has the advantage since it can boost the public's fears by linking the proposal to unpopular issues. This article explores whether this dynamic applies to EU treaty ratification referendums. Does the anti‐EU treaty campaign have more advantage than the pro‐EU treaty campaign in these referendums? Campaign strategies in 11 EU treaty ratification referendums are analysed, providing a clear juxtaposition between pro‐treaty (‘Yes’) and anti‐treaty (‘No’) campaigns. Based on 140 interviews with campaigners in 11 referendums, a series of indicators on political setting and campaign characteristics, as well as an in‐depth case study of the 2012 Irish Fiscal Compact referendum, it is found that the anti‐treaty side indeed holds the advantage if it engages the debate. Nonetheless, the findings also show that this advantage is not unconditional. The underlying mechanism rests on the multidimensionality of the issue. The extent to which the referendum debate includes a large variety of ‘No’ campaign arguments correlates strongly with the campaigners’ perceived advantage/disadvantage, and the referendum results. When the ‘No’ side's arguments are limited (either through a single‐issue treaty or guarantees from the EU), this provides the ‘Yes’ side with a ‘cleaner’ agenda with which to work. Importantly, the detailed data demonstrate that the availability of arguments is important for the ‘Yes’ side as well. They tend to have the most advantage when they can tap into the economic costs of an anti‐EU vote. This analysis has implications for other kinds of EU referendums such as Brexit, non‐EU referendums such as independence referendums, and the future of European integration.