Incremental Projects Research Articles

Technology Focus: Reserves Management (December 2023)

Time and time again, I meet industry specialists who should have a detailed knowledge of the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) and handling uncertainty in the inputs for resource assessment or to the rest of the evaluation work flow. Often, however, the understanding of PRMS basics, application, or reporting seems to be lacking. This year’s Reserves Management papers are chosen to revisit some basics around both reserves delineation and asset management. Paper SPE 210358 reminds evaluators to use multiple approaches (triangulation?) in the presence of uncertainty to derive the best estimates for Proved Reserves, but this should apply equally to all resource assessment. It also stresses the requirement, sometimes overlooked, to ensure that the approach/technology is proven and calibrated to work in the exact situation, both subsurface and surface. Uncertainty is inherent in our business, though difficult to communicate, and we should do all we can to incorporate it correctly. Also looking at the effect of uncertainty, paper SPE 213385 focuses on Monte Carlo simulation for commercialization around well performance in unconventional settings, but its application can be to any technical or commercial uncertainty. Too many people overly focus on precision (the decimal places in the answer) but lose focus on accuracy or usefulness of the work. Uncertainty can lead to errors in the first, and certainly the second, significant figure, thus invalidating all the misleading precision. Analysis should model the parameters to include the true state of knowledge. It seems ever more difficult to avoid discussions of carbon capture and storage (CCS), a major challenge facing the industry, especially when trying to monetize massive high-CO2 fields. Paper SPE 214359 discusses how the Malaysian authorities and Petronas seek to manage and incentivize CCS in their domain and achieve socially desirable goals with improved efficiency—specifically, centralizing the disposal of CO2 through an organization taking the separated gas from the producers. It creates efficiencies through scale and targeted regulatory incentives that do not need to be applied to the direct producers. It reminds me of how liquefied natural gas facilities often are commercially separated from the upstream to manage project financing and improve project feasibility. The recommended additional reading papers delve further into PRMS disclosure details and implications; how allocating volumes (and costs) for incremental decisions can change the optimal outcome; some more around how volumes and costs flow through to economics and how this can be an issue in complex fields; and, lastly, an unusual proposal of uncertainty around the 1P, 2P, and 3P values. Certainly, they remind the reader to consider the effect of uncertainty on volumetrics and categorization. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 209695 Can Reasonable Certainty Be Assessed From Disclosed Proved Reserves Revisions? by Enrique Morales, ISVA Oil and Gas Consultancy, et al. SPE 211458 An Algorithm for Calculating Incremental Production in an Integrated Asset Model by Peter Richard Paul Cunningham, Serafim, et al. SPE 212826 Impact of Financial Assumptions on Economic Viability of Incremental Projects by M.A. Mian, O&G Knowledge Sharing Platform SPE 209217 Probabilistic Reserves Categorization Using Percentiles of a Single Probability Distribution by M.A. Mian, O&G Knowledge Sharing Platform

Convergence of the Incremental Projection Method Using Conforming Approximations

Abstract We prove the convergence of an incremental projection numerical scheme for the time-dependent incompressible Navier–Stokes equations, without any regularity assumption on the weak solution. The velocity and the pressure are discretized in conforming spaces, whose compatibility is ensured by the existence of an interpolator for regular functions which preserves approximate divergence-free properties. Owing to a priori estimates, we get the existence and uniqueness of the discrete approximation. Compactness properties are then proved, relying on a Lions-like lemma for time translate estimates. It is then possible to show the convergence of the approximate solution to a weak solution of the problem. The construction of the interpolator is detailed in the case of the lowest degree Taylor–Hood finite element.

Impact of Financial Assumptions on Economic Viability of Incremental Projects

Summary Commerciality assessment and reserves booking is an important task, routinely performed by every oil and gas company. The task is performed based on the guidelines presented in the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS). The PRMS, revised in 2018, is a system developed for consistent and reliable definition, classification, and estimation of hydrocarbon resources. The document was prepared by the Oil and Gas Reserves Committee under the auspices of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. The PRMS has been broadly adopted by the oil and gas industry as an international standard reference for the classification and categorization of oil and gas reserves and resources. The objective of this paper is to reiterate the well-known knowledge regarding the economic viability, economic limit, sunk cost, depreciation, incremental project vs. entity’s economics, economic contingency, and technical contingency in a simple, unambiguous, and concise manner. The paper emphasizes using only discounted cash flows in all economic evaluations whether it is for reserves booking or investment decision-making. It is unfortunate that this well-known knowledge is incorrectly described and used in the industry for commerciality assessment of oil and gas resources and investment decision-making. The paper also shows that some of the financial assumptions and definitions such as financing at the incremental project level, properly accounting for sunk cost, and treatment of income tax when an entity has positive taxable income, if applied correctly, can greatly and legally enhance the chances of commerciality and reserves booking.

Peer review: Risk and risk tolerance

Peer review, commonly used in grant funding decisions, relies on scientists’ ability to evaluate research proposals’ quality. Such judgments are sometimes beyond reviewers’ discriminatory power and could lead to a reliance on subjective biases, including preferences for lower risk, incremental projects. However, peer reviewers’ risk tolerance has not been well studied. We conducted a cross-sectional experiment of peer reviewers’ evaluations of mock primary reviewers’ comments in which the level and sources of risks and weaknesses were manipulated. Here we show that proposal risks more strongly predicted reviewers’ scores than proposal strengths based on mock proposal evaluations. Risk tolerance was not predictive of scores but reviewer scoring leniency was predictive of overall and criteria scores. The evaluation of risks dominates reviewers’ evaluation of research proposals and is a source of inter-reviewer variability. These results suggest that reviewer scoring variability may be attributed to the interpretation of proposal risks, and could benefit from intervention to improve the reliability of reviews. Additionally, the valuation of risk drives proposal evaluations and may reduce the chances that risky, but highly impactful science, is supported.

Project management education through simulation: Achieving reliability, relevance, and reality in a “messy” environment

AbstractProject management (PM) work readiness requires preparation beyond the knowledge of concepts and best practices to develop and practice soft skills needed for successful project management. This article proposes a methodology that combines real‐world practitioner tools, PM processes, and a Microsoft Excel‐based PM Simulator to create a “messy” project environment for students to apply concepts supported by soft skill practice. This methodology addresses a gap in classroom strategies focusing on soft skill development via practice rather than knowledge conveyance for PM education. Faculty provides a project case study for students to plan and execute, starting with charter development and carrying through project execution. This article illustrates one potential case study, but any project planning case study can be used with the PM Simulator as long as the project plan from the case has fewer than 100 individual tasks (PM Simulator constraint). Faculty can control complexity to prevent unwinnable and overly easy scenarios preventing students from becoming frustrated or bored, each a potential learning roadblock. The simulation of an unpredictable project environment occurs as students are faced with challenges that they must assess and overcome. Two pilot implementations successfully demonstrated that students learned to create incremental project artifacts such as charters, project plans, status reports, and learned schedule versus budget‐balancing concepts.

Economic Evaluation Method of Incremental Distribution Network Project Based on Value Theory

In order to improve the weight calculation accuracy and overall evaluation accuracy of incremental distribution network project economic evaluation, a new incremental distribution network project economic evaluation method based on value theory is proposed in this paper. Firstly, based on the value theory, the economic characteristics of incremental distribution network are analyzed. Secondly, the economic benefits of the incremental distribution network project are calculated from the perspectives of DG owned operators and DG owned users. Finally, based on the calculation results of economic benefits, this paper constructs the evaluation index system, calculates the evaluation weight from both subjective and objective aspects, and finally completes the economic evaluation of incremental distribution network project. The experimental results show that compared with the traditional evaluation methods, this method can accurately calculate the evaluation weight, so as to obtain more accurate evaluation results.

Coordinate Monitoring Technology in the Process of Incremental Launching Construction of Curved Steel Box Girder Bridge

Based on the steel box girder curve incremental launching project of SW ramp bridge in Harbin East Third Ring Road, the geometric alignment and structural internal force of the steel box girder during the incremental launching process were monitored in the whole process. The curve incremental launching coordinate position control method was adopted, and the relevant parameters were modified according to the site construction situation and the initial stress conditions of the girders, and the corrected theoretical value was used as the control and evaluation basis of the monitoring value. The results showed that the original theoretical deflection value was −33.10 mm, the modified theoretical deflection value was −64.10 mm, and the actual monitoring value was −53.20 mm. The modified theoretical value agreed well with the monitoring value, and the error rate between the monitoring value and the theoretical value under each working condition was −17.82%∼14.48%. The geometric alignment and internal force of the steel box girder met the monitoring requirements, ensuring that the steel box girder can meet the design requirements under various working conditions.

Boosting Radical Innovation Using Ambidextrous Portfolio Management

Overview Managing an innovation portfolio is crucial for firms looking to foster radical innovation. Radical innovation, however, creates challenges for traditional portfolio management systems. When companies do not adequately distinguish between incremental and radical innovation when designing their management systems, portfolio management decision-making processes will tend to favor incremental innovation. Radical innovation requires a broader, multilevel organizational approach. We propose a multilevel framework for innovation portfolios that considers elements at the individual, project, organizational, and strategic levels. We suggest guidelines for ambidextrous portfolio management to ensure a strong separation between incremental and radical innovation projects and to support a more fruitful management environment for radical innovation.

An Incremental Model Projection Applied to Streamline Software Architecture Assessment and Monitoring

Managing software architecture represents a big challenge throughout the development lifecycle. The complexity of the involved structural elements and the relations among them make the specified models look oversized and fuzzy, which makes the architecture incomprehensible, hard to maintain, and difficult to assess its quality. This paper's goal is to propose a powerful methodology for simplifying and reducing models' complexity to increase understandability, smoothing maintenance, and facilitating architecture monitoring and assessment. For this purpose, the authors rely heavily on two major concepts, multi-view modeling, and incremental model projection. The multi-viewing requires that all models must have two main views to describe the architecture and the mapping to its relevant quality attributes. The incremental projection is a methodology used to specialize and minimize models progressively to make them simpler and clearer. The results show that projecting models incrementally can reduce and narrow them significantly.

Life-cycle cost analysis for an incremental seismic rehabilitation project

Incremental seismic rehabilitation (ISR) consists of a set of discrete rehabilitation actions in order to decrease initial costs and to avoid long-lasting disruptions. Nevertheless, there are few cases of incrementally retrofitted buildings and few studies about its economic feasibility. The objective of this work is to evaluate the differences between incremental and single-stage rehabilitation in terms of economic losses during the building’s life span. For this purpose, this work analyzes three rehabilitation proposals to improve seismic performance of typical school buildings. Based on P58 FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) methodology, expected repair costs and benefits were calculated for each rehabilitation intervention. Results confirm the potential of ISR for improving essential buildings.

Digital Skills and Their Relevance to the COVID-19 Innovative Responses in the European Union

COVID-19 has caused strong restrictions in the activities of companies and people in the European Union. Its effects are not restricted to the public health field, but also include the economic and social dimensions. To face this wide range of challenges, government entities, companies, and civil society have sought to develop innovative solutions to cope with the effects posed by COVID-19. This study aims to explore these innovative initiatives using the observatory of public sector innovation (OPSI) framework and intends to understand the effects of digital skills of citizens and companies in the emergence of these initiatives. The findings reveal that the proposed innovative solutions result essentially from incremental innovation projects and are promoted by government entities at national and local levels. Nevertheless, the relevance of the participation of companies and civil society in these innovative initiatives is also highlighted. Finally, the digital competencies of each EU state member do not appear to influence the countries' capacity to offer innovative solutions.

Human Motion Capture Based on Incremental Dimension Reduction and Projection Position Optimization

Three‐dimensional (3D) human motion capture is a hot researching topic at present. The network becomes advanced nowadays, the appearance of 3D human motion is indispensable in the multimedia works, such as image, video, and game. 3D human motion plays an important role in the publication and expression of all kinds of medium. How to capture the 3D human motion is the key technology of multimedia product. Therefore, a new algorithm called incremental dimension reduction and projection position optimization (IDRPPO) is proposed in this paper. This algorithm can help to learn sparse 3D human motion samples and generate the new ones. Thus, it can provide the technique for making 3D character animation. By taking advantage of the Gaussian incremental dimension reduction model (GIDRM) and projection position optimization, the proposed algorithm can learn the existing samples and establish the relevant mapping between the low dimensional (LD) data and the high dimensional (HD) data. Finally, the missing frames of input 3D human motion and the other type of 3D human motion can be generated by the IDRPPO.

Small mammal responses to wetland restoration in the Greater Everglades ecosystem

Wetlands have experienced dramatic losses in extent around the world, disrupting ecosystem function, habitat, and biodiversity. In Florida's Greater Everglades, a massive restoration effort costing billions of dollars and spanning multiple decades is underway. As Everglades restoration is implemented in incremental projects, scientists and planners monitor the outcomes of projects. In this study, we evaluated the progress of a restoration project in the southwestern Everglades. We aimed to determine whether the presence and density of small mammals differed between areas with the hydrologic restoration of the ecosystem and areas without restoration. Our three focal species were: marsh rice rat (Oryzomys palustris), hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus), and cotton mouse (Peromyscus gossypinus). Using spatially explicit capture‐recapture models, we found greater densities of cotton mouse in restored habitat and lower densities of hispid cotton rat in sites with higher water levels. In addition, we found an increase in the presence of the marsh rice rat in restored areas compared to unrestored, but captures were too low to reliably assess significance. Our study provides evidence that ongoing restoration in the southwestern Everglades is already impacting the small mammal community.

Shifting from a Risk Mitigation Project to an Adaptation Project: The case of Curitiba’s Lagoon Parks

Drawing upon the sustainability transitions theory, the paper aims to explore how the risk mitigation project of Curitiba’s lagoon parks shifted to adaptation urban projects in the context of tackling climate change. “Urban acupuncture” was the pioneering strategy adopted by Curitiba’s Municipality through the introduction, more than 40 years ago, of a limited number of low cost projects in some natural lagoons as innovative experiments that operate as a niche in a multi-level perspective. The projects acted as a way of resisting the pressure of urban intervention trends focused on transforming natural landscapes into new built-up urban areas, or intervention in natural ecosystems with water drainage and engineering solutions. These experiments and their synergy now constitute urban parks with a leverage impact on the capacity the city has to adapt to climate change, creating tension on the institutionalized regime. Through this case study, we examine the importance of governance, leadership and urban networks professionals in addition to technical features of the projects. The findings suggest that a top-down strategy, long time frame, and the exclusion of community participation have a limited likelihood of replicability and are discouraged nowadays in public urban policies. The paper contributes to highlighting the link between experimental urban acupuncture and sustainability transitions through incremental projects in natural areas for climate change adaptation. It contributes to the understanding of transitions in the southern hemisphere where institutions struggle with tight budgets, incremental interventions and specific nondemocratic contexts, and raises concerns about the critical role of governance.

THE GUIDELINE FOR CUSTOMISING INCREMENTAL HOUSING BASED ON TWO CHILEAN CASE STUDIES

Incremental housing, supported by governmental funding, denotes a solution for low-income households where they can gradually customise their dwelling. The Chilean government officials and architects proposed phases of construction which fell short of addressing the households’ capabilities and motivation to finalise their units. Hereof, this article looks at two incremental housing projects: Lo Espejo condominium (2007) and Las Higueras (2006) in the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile, to inquire capacities of government officials and architects’ comprehensive assistance to families’ housebuilding. The hypothesis holds that the greater responsibility of government officials and architects engaged with incremental housing will enhance motivation of low-income families to customise their house by self-building practice. Arguing for the importance of the self-building the author proposed the guideline for customising houses that comprises four phases: introducing the incremental construction design idea, discussing with families the possibilities for completing houses, connecting households’ construction plans with their financial resources, and presenting the customisation design template. This guideline structure is founded on extensive nine months fieldwork in the Santiago Metropolitan Region, carried out in close collaboration with low-income households from two neighbourhoods, the Ministry of Housing and Urbanism of Chile, the Architectural Office Elemental, and “Gubbins Arquitectos.”

Oeiras smart

Este texto apresenta um projeto-piloto de desmaterialização de um procedimento inerente à delegação de competências entre o Município de Oeiras e as Juntas/Uniões de Freguesia do Concelho. Num quadro em que as cidades portuguesas começam a apostar mais fortemente nos Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG) para mudar a relação entre cidadãos, espaços e serviços municipais, este projeto é apresentado como um learning case de inteligência territorial. O projeto foi conduzido numa unidade orgânica do município, procurando-se aferir as potencialidades das tecnologias open-source (QGIS 3.6) na governança digital da cidade. A governança digital implica habilitar práticas governativas centradas nos usuários (cidadão e empresas) como cocriadores de serviços e políticas públicas. Nesse sentido, este projeto de digitalização idealiza numa segunda fase o envolvimento e participação dos usuários para que os serviços e as políticas possam ser sustentados nas suas necessidades/preferências. A desmaterialização do procedimento implicou a identificação dos circuitos e fluxos de informação, tipologias documentais envolvidas e responsabilidades associadas a cada atividade, no sentido da sua simplificação, informatização e otimização. A principal aprendizagem deste learning case é a de evidenciar a partir do terreno como pequenos projetos incrementais estão/podem ser ativados para que no futuro uma transformação digital mais profunda possa acontecer. A smartificação liderada pelos municípios (Smart Cities 2.0) está ainda, portanto, numa fase de kick-off que deve ser analisada, especificamente na sua relação com a governança digital, através de casos de aprendizagem para um melhor planejamento e gestão do território. Palavras-chave: Inteligência Territorial. Desmaterialização. Governança Digital. Smart Cities. Learning Case.

Random and cyclic projection algorithms for variational inequalities

ABSTRACT In this paper, we propose a new incremental constraint projection method (containing random projection method and cyclic projection method) for solving variational inequality problems in , where the underlying function is Lipschitz continuous and monotone plus. We focus on special structures that lend themselves to sampling, such as when X is the intersection of a large number of sets, and/or F is an expected value or is the sum of a large number of component functions. Our method requires only two projections onto a suitable halfspace which replaces the projections onto constrained set . We prove the sequence generated by our method is globally convergent to a solution of the variational inequalities in almost sure sense both random projection method and cyclic projection method. Finally, we provide numerical experiments to show the efficiency and advantage of the proposed algorithms.

Immersed boundary and overset grid methods assessed for Stokes flow due to an oscillating sphere

A systematic comparison of three types of immersed boundary methods and an overset grid method is performed for incompressible Stokes flow due to an oscillating sphere. For each simulation the error between the numerical solution and the analytical solution is reported in terms of the maximum and L2 norms of the errors in the velocity, the pressure and the velocity gradient fields. The three types of immersed boundary methods are: (A) a diffuse-interface immersed boundary method (IBM), (B) a sharp-interface IBM with standard treatment of the pressure, and (C) a sharp-interface IBM with pressure decoupling at interfaces. Upon grid refinement, the velocity gradient and pressure fields generated by methods A and B do not converge to the analytical solution in the maximum norm, while the total force on the sphere does converge. An inspection of the norms as function of the distance to the surface shows that the lack of convergence mainly occurs in the first layer of grid cells outside the sphere. If the pressure Poisson equation is not solved inside the sphere (method C), the velocity gradient and pressure seem to converge in the maximum norm. However, high resolution is required to achieve a smaller maximum error in the pressure in method C than in methods A and B. Overall, method C is somewhat more accurate than method B and the latter is somewhat more accurate than method A. In this assessment, the overset grid method clearly outperforms the IBMs and is able to produce errors down to one percent in the maximum norm at 32 grid points per sphere diameter. Within each of the four classes of methods, several variants are tested. For the overset grid method and in several sharp-interface IBMs, nonincremental projection is found to produce a more accurate pressure than incremental projection does. Finally, variants of method C and the overset grid method are proposed in which the projection method is replaced by an artificial compressibility method, while the staggered grid is maintained. This simplifies the methods, and it strongly reduces the maximum error in the pressure in case C, at the expense of an increased maximum error in the velocity divergence.

PROJE YÖNETİCİSİNİN PROJENİN BAŞARISINDAKİ YERİ VE ÖNEMİ

As pressures to compete more effectively in a global marketplace heighten, a technological shift is unfolding. Organizations are striving to redefine their business practices in order to increase quality, productivity, and customer satisfaction. Every level of operation up to senior executives is being re-evaluated based on their ability to meet business goals and objectives. As a result, organizations are becoming project-driven; that is, they are budgeting, planning and gauging business success through the success of the incremental projects and processes that drive their business. Under these circumstances the role of the project managers become more important.

On Presupposition Projection with Trivalent Connectives

A basic puzzle about presuppositions concerns their projection from propositional constructions. This problem has regained much attention in the last decade since many of its prominent accounts, including variants of the trivalent Strong Kleene connectives, suffer from the so-called *proviso problem*.This paper argues that basic insights of the Strong Kleene system can be used without invoking the proviso problem. It is shown that the notion of *determinant value* that underlies the definition of the Strong Kleene connectives leads to a natural generalization of the filtering conditions proposed in Karttunen's article ``Presuppositions of compound sentences'' (LI, 1973). Incorporating this generalized condition into an incremental projection algorithm avoids the proviso problem as well as the derivation of conditional presuppositions. It is argued that the same effects that were previously modelled using conditional presuppositions may be viewed as effects of presupposition suspension and contextual inference on presupposition projection.