Increasing Trend In Incidence Research Articles

Incidence distributions, risk factors and trends of vaginal cancer: A global population-based study.

This study aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors and trends for vaginal cancer. Retrospective observational design. Data were collected from multiple sources, including the Global Cancer Observatory, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus, Global Burden of Disease, World Bank and the United Nations. Individuals diagnosed with vaginal cancer. The study collected data on vaginal cancer from the specified sources. The age-standardised rate (ASR) of vaginal cancer was calculated for different regions and age groups. Multivariable and univariable linear regression analyses were performed to examine the associations between risk factors and the incidence of vaginal cancer. Trend analysis was conducted using joinpoint regression analysis, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend. The main outcome measures of the study were the incidence of vaginal cancer, risk factors associated with the disease and the trend of its incidence over time. There were 17 908 newly reported cases of vaginal cancer (ASR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.30-0.44) in 2020, with the highest ASRs reported in South-Central Asia and Southern Africa. Risk factors associated with a higher incidence of vaginal cancer included a higher prevalence of unsafe sex and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The temporal trend showed an overall rising incidence globally, with Iceland (AAPC = 29.56, 95% CI 12.12-49.71), Chile (AAPC = 22.83, 95% CI 13.20-33.27), Bahrain (AAPC = 22.05, 95% CI 10.83-34.40) and the UK (AAPC = 1.40, 95% CI 0.41-2.39) demonstrating the most significant rising trends. The significant regional disparities and risk factors associated with vaginal cancer underscore the necessity for targeted interventions and education, particularly in regions with a lower human development index (HDI) and a higher prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The increasing incidence trend emphasises the need for enhanced HPV vaccination rates to prevent the development of vaginal cancer.

North-south differences in incidence and surveillance of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy.

In Italy, the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma is two-fold higher in the north than in the south. This gradient might be associated with differences in incidence trends and disease surveillance. We compared the time trends in incidence rates, mortality rates, dermatologic office visit rates and skin biopsy rates between the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy) and the Sicily Region (southern Italy). The cancer registries of Parma, Modena, Ferrara and Romagna (current population, 2,606,465) and Catania-Messina-Enna, Siracusa and Ragusa (2,775,019) provided incidence and mortality records for the years 2008-2017. The records of outpatient services delivered in public health facilities were obtained from the two Regional Administrations. Trends in rates were assessed with the estimated average annual percent change. North-south differences were expressed as age-standardised rate ratios. In the context of a generalised increasing incidence trend, which was more moderate in the female population of the Sicily Region, the standardised rate ratios were: 5.31 (males) and 5.20 (females) for in situ cutaneous malignant melanoma; 2.10 and 2.07 for invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma, with an excess incidence concentrated in lesions ⩽1.00 mm thick (3.58 and 3.05); 3.00 and 2.44 for dermatologic office visits; and 5.25 and 5.02 for skin biopsies. Mortality was stable in both Regions. In the Emilia-Romagna Region, as compared with the Sicily Region, a higher incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma -especially of in situ and early invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma- coexisted with a higher level of clinical surveillance. The question of the direction of the cause-effect relationship between increased incidence and increased diagnostic scrutiny remains open.

A Step towards understanding coronary artery disease: a complication in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BackgroundIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a relatively rare disease with increasing incidence trends. Cardiovascular disease is a significant complication in IPF patients due to the role of common proatherogenic immune...

Incidence trends in prostate cancer among men in the United States from 2000 to 2020 by race and ethnicity, age and tumor stage.

To explore whether prostate cancer incidence trends from 2000 to 2020 in the United States differed by race and ethnicity, age and tumor stage; to explore racial differences in prostate cancer incidence change due to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in 2020; and to determine if there is any high-risk population that can be targeted for prevention. We identified 1,098,349 men who were diagnosed with incident prostate cancer at age ≥20 in 2000-2020 in 17 registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in the United States; of whom, 778,437 were non-Hispanic whites, 155,111 non-Hispanic blacks, 4,200 American Indians and Alaska Natives (AIAN), 55,267 non-Hispanic Asians/Pacific Islanders, and 105,334 Hispanics. Age-adjusted incidence rate of prostate cancer was the highest in blacks (302.6 cases per 100,000 men), followed by whites (186.6), Hispanics (153.2), AIAN (108.5), and Asians (104.9). Age-adjusted prostate cancer incidence rates dramatically decreased from 2000 to 2013 for all ethnic men. However, age-adjusted prostate cancer incidence rates increased from 2014 to 2020, in which the increasing incidence trend looked sharper in blacks and whites, flatter in Asians, and leveled in AIAN and Hispanics. Among men with local or regional stages across all years, prostate cancer incidence rate was significantly higher in blacks, but significantly lower in Hispanics, AIAN, and Asians as compared to whites. Among men in 2007-2013, the risk of distant stage prostate cancer was statistically significantly elevated in blacks (rate-ratio: 2.22, 95% CI: 2.06-2.38) and Hispanics (1.16, 1.06-1.25), not significantly different in AIAN (1.30, 0.92-1.76), but still significantly lower in Asians (0.73, 0.66-0.82) as compared to whites. There was a drop of prostate cancer incidence from 2019 to 2020 likely due to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown on the access to medical care in 2020. Overall prostate cancer incidence rate decreased by 40.4 cases per 100,000 population from 277.4 in 2019 to 237.0 in 2020 for blacks, 20.9 from 164.2 to 143.3 for whites, 16.8 from 124.8 to 108.0 for Hispanics, 14.9 from 101.7 to 86.8 for AIAN, and 12.6 from 88.4 to 75.8 for Asians. The decreasing trend of prostate cancer incidence from 2000 to 2013 was statistically significant for all ethnic men. There was an increasing prostate cancer incidence from 2014 to 2020. Age-adjusted incidence rate of prostate cancer was the highest in blacks, followed by whites, Hispanics, AIAN, and Asians, regardless of age groups, tumor stages, and time periods. There will also be a need to monitor and investigate the prostate cancer incidence trend during and after COVID-19 pandemic season.

Prognostic Survival Significance of Signet Ring Cell (SRC) Gastric Cancer: Retrospective Analysis from a Single Western Center.

Signet ring cell carcinoma accounts for 35% to 45% of all gastric cancer. Despite the acknowledgment of its more aggressive pathological features, various controversies surrounding this topic still exist. Thus, we investigate the clinical pathological characteristics and survival prognostic significance of signet ring cell components in patients affected by gastric cancer. From January 2004 to December 2020, in a retrospective study, we enrolled 404 patients with gastric cancer who were curatively treated in our department. The male-to-female ratio was 249/142, and the median age was 75 (range 37-94). We dichotomized patients into two groups (75 patients vs. 316 patients) based on the signet ring cell presence; according to preoperative, operative, and postoperative characteristics, we performed a univariate and multivariate analysis for overall survival. Signet ring cell carcinoma indicated an increasing incidence trend over the time analyzed. Overall median survival of signet ring cell and non-signet ring cell carcinoma were, respectively, 16 vs. 35 months, p < 0.05. In early gastric cancer, the prognosis of the signet ring cell is better than that of the non-signet ring cell, as opposed to advanced cancer. Among the entire population in the multivariate analysis, the only independent factors were preoperative serum albumin level, complete surgical resection, level of lymphadenectomy, and pathological stage. Recurrence occurred more frequently in patients affected by signet ring cell, but in our data, we could not identify a peculiar site of recurrence. Signet ring cell carcinoma has a specific oncogenetic phenotype and treatment resistance heterogeneity; however, it is not always associated with poor prognosis. According to our results, a radical surgical procedure associated with an adequate lymphadenectomy should be advocated to improve patients survival. Gastric cancer patients with signet ring cell components should draw clinicians' attention.

Global Incidence, Mortality, Risk Factors and Trends of Melanoma: A Systematic Analysis of Registries.

Melanoma of the skin is the most dangerous skin cancer in the world, though the numbers of reported new cases and melanoma-related deaths are low. This study evaluated the global incidence, mortality, risk factors and temporal trends by age, sex and locations of melanoma skin cancer. Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI; the Nordic Cancer Registries (NORDCAN); the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program; and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) mortality database were accessed for worldwide incidence and mortality rates. Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) was calculated using a Joinpoint regression to examine trends. Age-standardized rates of cancer incidence and mortality were 3.4 and 0.55 per 100,000 worldwide in 2020. Australia and New Zealand reported the highest incidence and mortality rates. Associated risk factors included higher prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption, unhealthy diet, obesity and metabolic diseases. Increasing incidence trends were observed mostly in European countries, whilst mortality displayed an overall decreasing trend. For both sexes in the age group 50 years and above, a significant increase in incidence trend was observed. Although mortality rates and trends were found to decrease, global incidence has increased, especially in older age groups and males. Whilst incidence increase may be attributed to improved healthcare infrastructure and cancer detection methods, the growing prevalence of lifestyle and metabolic risk factors in developed countries should not be discounted. Future research should explore underlying variables behind epidemiological trends.

Impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the epidemiology of Cryptosporidium spp. in England and Wales, 2015-2021: a time series analysis.

Introduction. In England and Wales, cryptosporidiosis cases peak in spring and autumn, associated with zoonotic/environmental exposures (Cryptosporidium parvum, spring/autumn) and overseas travel/water-based activities (Cryptosporidium hominis, autumn). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions prevented social mixing, overseas travel and access to venues (swimming pools/restaurants) for many months, potentially increasing environmental exposures as people sought alternative countryside activities.Hypothesis. COVID-19 restrictions reduced incidence of C. hominis cases and potentially increased incidence of C. parvum cases.Aim. To inform/strengthen surveillance programmes, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on the epidemiology of C. hominis and C. parvum cases.Methodology. Cases were extracted from the Cryptosporidium Reference Unit (CRU) database (1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021). We defined two periods for pre- and post-COVID-19 restrictions implementation, corresponding to before and after the first UK-wide lockdown on 23 March 2020. We conducted a time series analysis, assessing differences in C. parvum and C. hominis incidence, trends and periodicity between these periods.Results. There were 21 304 cases (C. parvum=12 246; C. hominis=9058). Post-restrictions implementation incidence of C. hominis dropped by 97.5 % (95 % CI: 95.4-98.6 %; P<0.001). The decreasing incidence trend pre-restrictions was not observed post-restrictions implementation due to lack of cases. No periodicity change was observed post-restrictions implementation. There was a strong social gradient; there was a higher proportion of cases in deprived areas. For C. parvum, post-restrictions implementation incidence fell by 49.0 % (95 % CI: 38.4-58.3 %; P<0.001). There was no pre-restrictions incidence trend but an increasing incidence trend post-restrictions implementation. A periodicity change was observed post-restriction implementation, peaking 1 week earlier in spring and 2 weeks later in autumn. The social gradient was the inverse of that for C. hominis. Where recorded, 22 % of C. hominis and 8 % of C. parvum cases had travelled abroad.Conclusion. C. hominis cases almost entirely ceased post-restrictions implementation, reinforcing that foreign travel seeds infections. C. parvum incidence fell sharply but recovered post-restrictions implementation, consistent with relaxation of restrictions. Future exceedance reporting for C. hominis should exclude the post-restriction implementation period but retain it for C. parvum (except the first 6 weeks post-restrictions implementation). Infection prevention and control advice should be improved for people with gastrointestinal illness (GI) symptoms to ensure hand hygiene and swimming pool avoidance.

Long-term trends of pediatric type 1 diabetes incidence in Japan before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Type 1 diabetes incidence has increased worldwide, although the long-term trends on pediatric type 1 diabetes in Japan remain elusive. To investigate the incidence and secular trend of pediatric type 1 diabetes from 1999 to 2021, including the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic years, in Oita Prefecture, Japan. We investigated the number of newly diagnosed patients with type 1 diabetes aged < 15 years from 1999 to 2021. We surveyed hospital databases in Oita Prefecture in Japan. The type 1 diabetes incidence in children aged < 15 years increased annually by 5.3% among all children, especially in boys aged 10–14 years by 8.1%, over the past 23 years. The average incidence rate of 3.9/100,000/year was nearly consistent with the previous reports on Asian countries. No significant change was found in the increasing incidence trend of type 1 diabetes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The incidence of pediatric type 1 diabetes has significantly increased over the past 23 years in Oita Prefecture, Japan, which is consistent with the worldwide trend.

Neighborhood Deprivation, Indoor Chemical Concentrations, and Spatial Risk for Childhood Leukemia.

Leukemia is the most common childhood cancer in industrialized countries, and the increasing incidence trends in the US suggest that environmental exposures play a role in its etiology. Neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) has been found to be associated with many health outcomes, including childhood leukemia. In this paper, we used a Bayesian index model approach to estimate a neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) in the analysis of childhood leukemia in a population-based case-control study (diagnosed 1999 to 2006) in northern and central California, with direct indoor measurements of many chemicals for 277 cases and 306 controls <8 years of age. We considered spatial random effects in the Bayesian index model approach to identify any areas of significantly elevated risk not explained by neighborhood deprivation or individual covariates, and assessed if groups of indoor chemicals would explain any elevated spatial risk areas. Due to not all eligible cases and controls participating in the study, we conducted a simulation study to add non-participants to evaluate the impact of potential selection bias when estimating NDI effects and spatial risk. The results in the crude model showed an odds ratio (OR) of 1.06 and 95% credible interval (CI) of (0.98, 1.15) for a one unit increase in the NDI, but the association became slightly inverse when adjusting for individual level covariates in the observed data (OR = 0.97 and 95% CI: 0.87, 1.07), as well as when using simulated data (average OR = 0.98 and 95% CI: 0.91, 1.05). We found a significant spatial risk of childhood leukemia after adjusting for NDI and individual-level covariates in two counties, but the area of elevated risk was partly explained by selection bias in simulation studies that included more participating controls in areas of lower SES. The area of elevated risk was explained when including chemicals measured inside the home, and insecticides and herbicides had greater effects for the risk area than the overall study. In summary, the consideration of exposures and variables at different levels from multiple sources, as well as potential selection bias, are important for explaining the observed spatial areas of elevated risk and effect estimates.

Uveal melanoma incidence trends in Canada: 1992-2010 vs. 2011-2017.

Uveal melanoma is the most common type of non-cutaneous melanoma and the most common ocular malignancy in the adult population, especially affecting Caucasians (98% of cases). Despite its low incidence rate, we have noted increasing incidence trends in recent years. We analyzed uveal melanoma incidence data using the Canadian Cancer Registry (CCR) for 2011-2017 years. The data was examined using the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, Third Edition, codes for all uveal melanoma subtypes. The data for 2011-2017 was then compared to previously published work by our research group for uveal melanoma incidence in Canada between 1992 and 2010 using the same methodology. Between 2011 and 2017, 1,215 patients were diagnosed with uveal melanoma, 49% of whom were females. The percentage distribution of uveal melanoma between the sexes was similar between 1992-2010 and 2011-2017, whereby of the 2,215 diagnoses of uveal melanoma in 1992-2010, 47.9% were females. The change in the incidence rate for this cancer has doubled between 1992-2010 and 2011-2017, from 0.074 to 0.15 cases per million individuals per year. Our study documents that the Canadian 2011-2017 age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for uveal melanoma against the World Health Organization (WHO) 2000-2025 world population standard was 5.09 cases per million individuals per year (95% confidence interval, 4.73-5.44), as compared with the 1992-2010 rate of 3.34 cases per million individuals per year (95% confidence interval, CI 3.20 to 3.47). This work demonstrates an ongoing, steady increase in uveal melanoma incidence in Canada in recent years.

The framing of time-dependent machine learning models improves risk estimation among young individuals with acute coronary syndromes

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a common cause of death in individuals older than 55 years. Although younger individuals are less frequently seen with ACS, this clinical event has increasing incidence trends, shows high recurrence rates and triggers considerable economic burden. Young individuals with ACS (yACS) are usually underrepresented and show idiosyncratic epidemiologic features compared to older subjects. These differences may justify why available risk prediction models usually penalize yACS with higher false positive rates compared to older subjects. We hypothesized that exploring temporal framing structures such as prediction time, observation windows and subgroup-specific prediction, could improve time-dependent prediction metrics. Among individuals who have experienced ACS (nglobal_cohort = 6341 and nyACS = 2242), the predictive accuracy for adverse clinical events was optimized by using specific rules for yACS and splitting short-term and long-term prediction windows, leading to the detection of 80% of events, compared to 69% by using a rule designed for the global cohort.

Cell-Free DNA Analysis within the Challenges of Thyroid Cancer Management.

Thyroid cancer is the most frequent endocrine malignancy with an increasing incidence trend during the past forty years and a concomitant rise in cancer-related mortality. The circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis is a patient's friendly and repeatable procedure allowing to obtain surrogate information about the genetics and epigenetics of the tumor. The aim of the present review was to address the suitability of cfDNA testing in different forms of thyroid cancer, and the potential clinical applications, as referred to the clinical weaknesses. Despite being limited by the absence of standardization and by reproducibility and validity issues, cfDNA assessment has great potential for the improvement of thyroid cancer management. cfDNA may support the pre-surgical definition of thyroid nodules by complementing invasive thyroid fine needle aspiration cytology. In addition, it may empower risk stratification and could be used as a biomarker for monitoring the post-surgical disease status, both during active surveillance and in the case of anti-tumor treatment.

An observational analysis of trends in rheumatic heart disease incidence and mortality in EU15+ countries over 29 years

Abstract Background Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a debilitating sequela of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), caused by Group A streptococcus (GAS) infection. Repeated episodes of ARF results in valvular damage over time. As a preventable disorder which was once common worldwide, RHD has largely been eradicated in affluent nations due to widespread availability of penicillin, improvement in socioeconomic standards and advancements in health and social infrastructures. However, it has been speculated that the global refugee crisis, especially in Europe, might contribute to a resurgence of RHD cases in these regions. Purpose This observational study aimed to analyse trends in RHD incidence and mortality rates in European Union 15+ (EU15+) over a 29-year period. Methods Data was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. Age-standardised mortality and incidence rates for RHD were extracted for the EU15+ countries for the years 1990–2019. Trends were subsequently analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results Over the 29-year period, an overall declining trend in RHD incidence and mortality across EU 15+ nations was observed. The United Kingdom demonstrated the largest decrease in RHD incidence amongst females (−54.9%) and Finland amongst males (−55.3%). Both RHD incidence and mortality were higher among females compared to males across EU15+ countries over the observed period. The most recent incidence trends, starting predominantly after 2014, demonstrated a rise in RHD incidence in most countries. For both sexes, increases were seen in Australia, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and USA. For males specifically, increase in RHD incidence was seen in Spain, and Finland, and for females only in Canada and Ireland. The recent increasing RHD incidence rates ranged from +0.4% to + 24.7% for males and +0.6% to +11.4% for females. Conclusion Whilst overall there are decreases in incidence and mortality from RHD, we observe more than half of EU15+ countries have increasing incidence trends in RHD in recent years. This increasing trend primarily started after 2014, overlapping with the start of the European migration crisis. Although speculative, disparities in access to healthcare for migrants, amongst other socioeconomic factors, may be potential causes; subsequently, further efforts by governments and public health officials are required to recognise and control the resurgence of RHD in high income nations. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Worldwide Distribution, Risk Factors, and Temporal Trends of Testicular Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A Global Analysis

BackgroundTesticular cancer is a common malignancy among young males in western countries. ObjectiveTo examine the global disease burden and trends of testicular cancer incidence and mortality by age and country, and their associations with human development index (HDI), gross domestic product (GDP), lifestyle habits, and metabolic risk factors. Design, setting, and participantsWe retrieved the Global Cancer Observatory database for the testicular cancer incidence and mortality in 2020; the World Bank for GDP per capita; the United Nations for HDI; the WHO Global Health Observatory for prevalence of smoking and alcohol drinking; and the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, WHO mortality database, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme and Nordic Cancer Registries (NORDCAN) for trend analysis. Outcome measurements and statistical analysisWe presented the testicular cancer incidence and mortality using age-standardised rates. We examined their associations with HDI, GDP, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical inactivity, overweight, obesity, and medical conditions including diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolaemia by linear regression. We estimated the 10-yr trend of incidence and mortality by joinpoint regression with average annual percentage change with 95% confidence intervals in different age groups. Results and limitationsThere was a wide variation in the testicular cancer burden with the highest mortality found in low-income countries, and the regions of Central America and South America, while the highest incidence was observed in high-income countries, especially in Western and Northern Europe. We found a positive association for HDI, GDP, alcohol drinking, inactivity, overweight, obesity, and hypercholesterolaemia with testicular cancer incidence, while a negative correlation was observed between GDP and mortality of testicular cancer. Globally, there was an overall increasing incidence trend of testicular cancer for the past decade, particularly in younger males; the mortality trends of testicular cancer were relatively stable. However, we did not analyse the trend of different stages and subtypes of testicular cancer due to data unavailability. ConclusionsThere was a global variation in the testicular cancer burden associated with HDI, GDP, alcohol drinking, inactivity, overweight, obesity, and hypercholesterolaemia. Testicular cancer had an increasing incidence but decreasing mortality. The increasing testicular cancer incidence in the younger population is of concern and calls for early detection and preventive interventions. Patient summaryGlobally, testicular cancer incidence had been increasing particularly in the younger population, although its deaths rates had been decreasing. Socioeconomic indices, alcohol drinking, inactivity, overweight, obesity, and high plasma lipid levels are associated with testicular cancer incidence and mortality.

Abstract 5888: Trends in incidence of gallbladder cancer in all 50 United States from 2001 to 2018

Abstract Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is an aggressive malignancy of the gastrointestinal system that is historically more common among racial/ethnic minority populations in the US. We investigated trends in GBC incidence rates in all 50 states from 2001 to 2018, overall and stratified by race/ethnicity, sex, and different regions. Methods: Age-standardized incidence rates and trends in adults aged ≥35 years were calculated using data from the U.S. Cancer Statistics registry. We used joinpoint regression to compute annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percent changes (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for both sexes and used eleven 5-year age groups (35-39 years through 85+ years). Race/ethnic groups were classified as non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks (NHWs and NHBs), Hispanics, American Indians/Alaska Natives, and Asians and Pacific Islanders. Results: Overall, the age-standardized incidence rate for GBC decreased by 0.3% annually between 2001 and 2018 (95% CI -0.5%, -0.1%). However, secular trends varied by age-group, sex and race/ethnicity. APC increased among individuals aged 45-54 years from 1.2% to 1.4% but decreased among those who were ≥ 75 years (-0.7% to -1.6% per year). While GBC incidence rates were stable among men between 2001 and 2014, incidence rates decreased by over 2% per year between 2014 and 2018 (APC, -2.1%; 95%CI: -3.9, -0.3). GBC incidence remained relatively stable between 2001 and 2018 among women. While GBC rates declined in other racial/ethnic groups, the rates increased by 1.4% annually among non-Hispanic Blacks (NHBs) between 2001 and 2018 (APC=1.4%; 95%CI: 0.9%, 2.0%). Among NHBs, increasing trends were also noted in Northeast, Midwest, and South regions of US. Conclusions: The study shows increasing incidence trends for GBC in the US among NHBs from 2001-2018 compared to decreasing trends among other race/ethnic groups. The results also point to the need for studying equitable detection and treatment of underlying risk factors for GBC. Citation Format: Syed A. Raza, Wilson L. Costa, Aaron P. Thrift. Trends in incidence of gallbladder cancer in all 50 United States from 2001 to 2018 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 5888.

Increasing trend of type 1 diabetes incidence in the pediatric population of the Calabria region in 2019–2021

BackgroundAlthough type 1 diabetes (T1D) represents one of the most common chronic diseases in pediatric age, few studies on the epidemiology of T1D exist globally and the exact prevalence and incidence rates of the disease are unknown. In many countries, including Italy, national registries are missing.MethodsThis study aims to assess T1D incidence in the pediatric population of the Calabria region (southern Italy) in the period 2019–2021. The secondary objective was to describe the main demographical, clinical and immunological features of incident cases. Case ascertainment and all clinical data were assessed by retrospectively reviewing the electronic medical records of children and adolescents diagnosed with diabetes at any Pediatric Diabetes Center belonging to the Rete Diabetologica Calabrese (Calabria Region Diabetes Network), from January 2019 to December 2021. The incidence of T1D was estimated for the entire region and was stratified according to age group (0–4 years, 5–9 years, and 10–14 years) and gender. Standardized incidence ratios for each province in the region were also calculated.ResultsThe crude incidence of T1D was 20.6/100,000 person/years. Incidence rates were higher among females and children aged 5–9 years. The crude incidence of T1D was higher in the province of Reggio Calabria (26.5/100,000 person-years). The provinces of Crotone, Catanzaro, and Vibo Valentia showed significantly lower standardized incidence ratios. The annual incidence in the region progressively increased by 43% during the study period.ConclusionsOur study revealed a relatively high incidence in the Calabria region. The marked increasing incidence trend over the past two years could be related to the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but further long-scale population-based studies are needed to confirm these findings.

The burden and risks factors for intracerebral hemorrhage in a Southeast Asian population

ObjectiveThe characteristics of intracerebral hemorrhage in Southeast Asian countries are insufficiently represented in the literature despite a large proportion of new stroke cases and deaths. This study aims to report the epidemiological and clinical presentation of intracerebral hemorrhage in Brunei Darussalam and investigate its incidence according to sex and age, as well as in relation to clinical presentation, radiological findings, and prognostic factors. MethodsThis retrospective study of intracerebral hemorrhage admissions was conducted from 1 January 2016–31 December 2019. Crude incidence rates were calculated by age and sex. Patient characteristics/demographics, mortality and functional outcomes were analyzed. Multivariate Cox regression models were used for investigating predictors of mortality. ResultsThe study cohort consisted of 255 patients (median age, 52 years); most were men (64.3% [164/255]) and had hypertension (76.9% [196/255]). The annual incidence rate was 14.6 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 12.9–16.5), and incidence rates were higher in men than in women for all age groups. A 7-day and 30-day mortality rate of 22.7% and 31.4%, respectively, was reported. Increased 30-day mortality was associated with patients on dialysis, diabetes mellitus, Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤ 8, bilateral dilated pupils, higher international normalized ratio, hematoma in the cerebellum or brainstem, hematoma volume, and presence of intraventricular hematoma. ConclusionsThis study provided insight into several aspects of the burden of intracerebral hemorrhage in Brunei Darussalam where an increasing incidence trend in men was observed. Intracerebral hemorrhage is associated with significant mortality and severe disability, and hypertension remains a significant risk factor.

Transmission Dynamics and Short-Term Forecasts of COVID-19: Nepal 2020/2021.

Nepal was hard hit by a second wave of COVID-19 from April-May 2021. We investigated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 at the national and provincial levels by using data on laboratory-confirmed RT-PCR positive cases from the official national situation reports. We performed 8 week-to-week sequential forecasts of 10-days and 20-days at national level using three dynamic phenomenological growth models from 5 March 2021-22 May 2021. We also estimated effective and instantaneous reproduction numbers at national and provincial levels using established methods and evaluated the mobility trends using Google's mobility data. Our forecast estimates indicated a declining trend of COVID-19 cases in Nepal as of June 2021. Sub-epidemic and Richards models provided reasonable short-term projections of COVID-19 cases based on standard performance metrics. There was a linear pattern in the trajectory of COVID-19 incidence during the first wave (deceleration of growth parameter (p) = 0.41-0.43, reproduction number (Rt) at 1.1 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.2)), and a sub-exponential growth pattern in the second wave (p = 0.61 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.64)) and Rt at 1.3 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.3)). Across provinces, Rt ranged from 1.2 to 1.5 during the early growth phase of the second wave. The instantaneous Rt fluctuated around 1.0 since January 2021 indicating well sustained transmission. The peak in mobility across different areas coincided with an increasing incidence trend of COVID-19. In conclusion, we found that the sub-epidemic and Richards models yielded reasonable short-terms projections of the COVID-19 trajectory in Nepal, which are useful for healthcare utilization planning.

Incidence and mortality trends of thyroid cancer from 1980 to 2016.

Thyroid cancer incidence rates have been increasing globally over past decades. However, no study examining those trends in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland exists. In this study, we describe the incidence and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in the canton of Zurich during a 37-year period (1980-2016) including factors such as sex, histological subtypes and age at diagnosis. We analysed population-based cancer registry data from 1980-2016 for the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We estimated the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates using the European standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to detect average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We included 2972 primary cases of thyroid cancer (72.3% in women). The papillary cases accounted for the majority of incident cases (65.8%). In 2016, women had a higher age-standardised incidence rate than men for both papillary (10.4 and 3.3, respectively, per 100,000) and non-papillary (1.6 and 0.7, respectively, per 100,000) thyroid cancer. In both men and women, the incidence rates of thyroid cancer increased significantly over the study period with AAPCs of 1.4% (95% CI 0.6-2.2%) and 2.6% (95% CI 2-3.1%), respectively. These increasing incidence trends are mainly driven by papillary thyroid cancer with AAPCs of 3.4% in men (95% CI 2.3% to 4.4%) and 4.3% in women (95% CI 3.7% to 5%). Mortality rates significantly decreased in both sexes (men AAPC -3.6%, 95% CI -4.7% to -2.4%; women AAPC -3.7%, 95% CI -4.8% to -2.6%). Our results show significantly increasing age-standardised incidence rates of thyroid cancer over time in both sexes, mainly due to papillary thyroid cancer, the most frequent histological subtype, and the only subtype for which a significant increase was observed. It is possible that many indolent thyroid cancers, and more specifically papillary microcarcinomas, are increasingly diagnosed, which may not lead to symptoms if undetected. Therefore, targeted diagnostic strategies are necessary to avoid overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer. Nevertheless, we cannot completely exclude a partly true increase.

Worldwide distribution, associated factors, and trends of gallbladder cancer: A global country-level analysis.

This study aimed to evaluate the global distribution, associated factors, and epidemiologic trends of gallbladder cancer (GBC) by country, sex, and age groups. The Global Cancer Observatory was interrogated for the disease burden of GBC using age-standardized rates (ASR). The prevalence of different potential risk factors for each country was extracted from Global Health Observatory and their associations with GBC incidence and mortality were examined by linear regression analysis using beta coefficients (β). The Cancer Incidence in Five Continents I-XI and the WHO Mortality database were searched and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) was generated from joinpoint regression analysis. The incidence (ASR=2.3) and mortality (ASR=1.7) of GBC varied globally in 2018 and were higher in more developed countries and among females. Countries with higher incidence had higher human development index (βmale=0.37; βfemale=0.27), gross domestic products (βmale=0.13) and higher prevalence of current smoking (βfemale=0.05), overweight (βmale=0.02), obesity (βmale=0.03), and hypercholesterolaemia (βmale=0.07). Similar patterns of associations were also observed for mortality with an additional association found for diabetes (βfemale=0.07). Although there was an overall decreasing trend in mortality, an increasing trend in incidence was observed among some populations, particularly in males (AAPCs, 8.97 to 1.92) and in younger individuals aged <50 years (AAPCs, 12.02 to 5.66). The incidence of GBC varied between countries and was related to differences in the prevalence of potential risk factors. There was an increasing incidence trend among males and younger individuals. More intensive lifestyle modifications and disease surveillance are recommended for these populations.