Cigarette Price Increase Research Articles

Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model.

Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented component of the World Health Organization MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63 000 premature deaths and 427 000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5)-MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-representing 0.8% of gross domestic product. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49 000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy for both gaining population health and reducing tobacco societal costs.

Tobacco industry pricing strategies during recent tax adjustments in Mexico: evidence from sales data

IntroductionPrevious studies have identified pricing strategies that the tobacco industry employs to try to minimise the impact of tobacco taxation, but these studies are mostly about high-income countries. This research...

Affordability of cigarettes in ten Southeastern European countries between 2008 and 2019

BackgroundThe empirical evidence shows that tobacco consumption is strongly associated with its affordability. The nominal growth in tobacco prices imposed by taxation should exceed or at least keep pace with...

Price elasticity of cigarette smoking in Bangladesh: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys (GATS)

IntroductionThe overall prevalence of cigarette smoking has not changed significantly for over a decade in Bangladesh. Raising the price of cigarettes through taxation is an important policy instrument for reducing...

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation Among Zimbabwean Children: A Survival Analysis of the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

Zimbabwe has a smoking prevalence of 11.7% among the adult population (15 years and older). Thus, in the absence of effective tobacco control measures, the economic burden of tobacco use will be aggravated, especially considering the increasing tobacco industry activity in the country. Increasing cigarette prices is one possible strategy to reduce tobacco consumption. This study seeks to examine the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking experimentation among children in Zimbabwe, thereby expanding the evidence base for the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low- and middle-income countries. A survival analysis using the Zimbabwe 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data. A 10% increase in the price of cigarettes reduces the probability of experimenting with smoking by 9%. Also, children are more likely to experiment with smoking if they have a smoking brother or father who smokes, or see teachers who smoke. The likelihood of experimenting with smoking is higher among boys than girls and is positively associated with age. There is strong evidence that increasing excise taxes can play an effective role in discouraging children from experimenting with cigarette smoking. Considering the relatively low excise tax burden in Zimbabwe, the government should consider substantially increasing the excise tax burden. With the number of smokers in low- and middle-income countries expected to increase as the industry intensively expands its market by targeting the youth, increasing excise taxes will play a significant role in preventing children from initiating smoking and help those who are already using tobacco to quit. An increase in the excise tax increases the retail price of tobacco products, making them less affordable, and reduces the demand for them.

Examining Demand and Substitutability of Usual Brand Little Cigars/Cigarillos and Cigarettes in Young Adults Who Dual Use.

Cigarette and little cigar/cigarillo (LCC) dual use is popular among young people and poses a substantial health risk. What remains unclear is the abuse liability of LCCs vs. cigarettes, LCCs' substitutability for cigarettes, and the influence of flavors on the abuse liability and substitutability of LCCs. Sixty-five young adults (18-34 years) who dual use completed hypothetical purchase tasks to measure consumption of usual brand cigarettes and LCCs in 24 hours at increasing prices (demand), and LCC consumption at increasing cigarette prices (substitution). Three demand indices were calculated from raw data: breakpoint (price after which consumption reaches 0), Omax (maximum daily expenditure), and Pmax (price at maximum expenditure). Two indices were estimated using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling: intensity (consumption when free) and price-sensitivity (rate of decline in consumption as price increases). Substitution, and associations of flavored use with demand and substitution, were estimated using linear mixed models. Results indicated similar abuse liability for LCCs and cigarettes. Intensity was greater for cigarettes, but price-sensitivity was similar. Flavored LCC use was associated with lower price-sensitivity and greater intensity than unflavored. LCCs were significant substitutes for cigarettes, but the effect was small. Flavored use was not associated with substitution. Among young adults who dual use, LCCs and cigarettes had similar abuse liability, and those who used flavored had higher demand for their LCCs. A flavored cigar ban, as well as targeted prevention and cessation services for those who smoke flavored LCCs, may be important for reducing dual use in young adults. Cigarette and LCC dual use remains high among young adults. Using hypothetical purchase tasks with young adults who dual use, LCCs had abuse liability similar to cigarettes, but were only modest substitutes for cigarettes. Participants who used flavored LCCs reported greater abuse liability than those who used unflavored, but not greater substitution for cigarettes. Prevention and cessation services are needed to target LCCs in young people, particularly those smoking flavored products. A flavored cigar ban may help to reduce their demand.

Effectiveness of Healthcare Interventions on Smoking Cessation in Adolescents in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Narrative Review.

The smoking epidemic is the greatest threat to global public health that has ever existed. Teenagers constantly perceive smoking as a way to communicate with friends and express their emotions. Adolescent smokers should be noticed immediately before the extended period of tobacco addiction and being resistant to the interventions. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of healthcare interventions targeting smoking cessation in adolescents within low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to summarize the options, benefits, and affordability of interventions for quitting smoking that may be implemented in LMICs. The review highlights the effectiveness of various pharmacological interventions, such as nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), bupropion, nortriptyline, varenicline, and cytosine, shedding light on their respective success rates in aiding smoking cessation. Additionally, the study delves into the realm of behavioral interventions, emphasizing the significant impact of counseling, brief advice, and automated text messaging in promoting smoking cessation among adolescents. Furthermore, the review examines the influence of external factors, such as an increase in cigarette prices and changes in the smoking environment, on smoking habits. It underscores the importance of creating smoke-free areas and leveraging community involvement to enhance the effectiveness of interventions. The study also evaluates the affordability and sustainability of smoking cessation interventions, emphasizing the need for a balanced combination of pharmacotherapy and behavioral support. The advantages of quitting smoking will improve the nation's health and boost economic productivity.

The impact of price and image warnings on the social perception of gifting cigarettes in China.

The tobacco gift-giving culture in China poses a significant challenge to public health; however, there is limited research on effectively curbing the tobacco gift-giving culture and its associated tobacco gift consumption. This study examines the potential impact of two tobacco control measures that the Chinese government may consider adopting on cigarette gifting behavior in the future in Chinese society. This study employed a randomized survey experiment to examine the effects of cigarette price treatment and pictorial health warning labels (HWLs) on cigarette gifting. The total sample size of this study is 1035. Four groups of participants were presented with representative cigarettes categorized into high-, medium-, and low-priced products, along with different prices (normal and double) or external packaging imagery (normal and pictorial HWL versions). The price of cigarettes for personal consumption forms an L-shaped distribution, and the price of cigarette gifts forms a W-shaped distribution. Increasing cigarette prices reduces smokers' willingness to gift high-priced cigarettes but stimulates the consumption of low-price cigarettes as gifts. Pictorial HWLs do not directly influence smokers' intentions to gift cigarettes, but they enhance the effectiveness of price regulation concerning medium-priced cigarette products. If the price variance of cigarettes is not reduced, the effect of price regulation will be very limited. Implementing combined interventions of pictorial HWLs and price regulation or modifying the pricing structure of tobacco products may yield stronger control outcomes.

Tobacco price elasticity by socioeconomic characteristics in Ecuador.

Smoking is a worldwide epidemic and increased prices are one of the most cost-effective measures to reduce tobacco consumption. This article aims to estimate the price and income elasticity of cigarettes for different population groups in Ecuador. The National Survey of Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGHUR) 2011-2012 was used, which has information on household cigarette consumption and its sociodemographic characteristics. Deaton's Almost Ideal Demand System, which decouples the effect of quality on the price of the good, was applied. The elasticities were calculated for several groups: urban/rural, income levels (tertiles), education level, sex and age ranges of the household head, and frequency of cigarette purchases in households. The estimated price elasticity nationwide is -0.89 and the income elasticity is 0.41, both statistically significant. Households headed by women (-2.22) are more sensitive to an increase in cigarette prices than those headed by men (-0.65) and households headed by people between 20 and 40 years of age (-2.32) have a higher price elasticity compared to country-level estimations. Differences within other groups are not statistically significant.

The Cigarette Price Increase and the Tobacco Control Policy

The Cigarette Price Increase and the Tobacco Control Policy

Cigarette Prices and Disparities in Smoking Cessation in the United States.

Achieving cessation in people with established smoking patterns remains a challenge. Increasing cigarette prices has been one of the most successful strategies for lowering smoking rates. The extent to which it has remained effective in encouraging cessation among adults in recent years and how the effectiveness has varied by sociodemographic characteristics is unclear. Using repeated cross-sectional data collected by the Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, we investigate the relationship between cigarette prices and cessation from 2003 to 2019 in adults at least 25 years old. We examine the associations between price and cessation in the population overall and by sex, race and ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. We found mixed support for associations between greater local prices and cessation. Unadjusted models showed that greater local prices were associated with greater odds of cessation, but the associations did not persist after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. The associations did not significantly differ by respondent characteristics. Sensitivity analysis using alternative specifications and retail state price as the main predictor showed similar results. Sensitivity analysis with controls for e-cigarette use in the 2014-2019 period showed that greater local price was associated with cessation among adults with less than a high school degree. When stratified by year of data collection, results show that greater local prices were associated with cessation after 2009. Overall, the study adds to the conflicting evidence on the effectiveness of increasing prices on smoking cessation among adults with established smoking patterns. Higher cigarette prices have been one of the most successful tools for lowering smoking prevalence. It remains unclear how effective they have been in recent years in encouraging adults with established smoking patterns to quit. The study's results show that greater local prices were associated with higher odds of cessation, but the association did not persist after sociodemographic adjustment. In a sensitivity analysis, greater local price was associated with cessation among people with less than a high school degree in models controlling for e-cigarette use. We also found evidence that greater local price was associated with cessation after 2009. More comprehensive smoke-free coverage was also associated with greater odds of cessation. The study's results highlight that encouraging cessation among adults with an established smoking pattern remains a challenging policy problem even when cigarette prices rise.

Taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages: reviewing the evidence and dispelling the myths

The article reviews the large body of evidence on how taxation affects the consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). There is abundant evidence that demand for tobacco, alcohol,...

The health, economic and social burden of smoking in Argentina, and the impact of increasing tobacco taxes in a context of illicit trade.

Tobacco tax increases, the most cost-effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle-income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking-related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs-totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.

What The Best Prediction Financial Distress With Compare Zmijewski, Altman Z-Score And Ohlson ?

financial distressis a condition where the company's finances are experiencing a loss because it is considered unable to pay its obligations when they are due. The increase in cigarette excise rates will certainly have an impact on the shares of cigarette issuers and result in an increase in the selling price of cigarettes which will allow the company to experience financial distress. Cigarette companies need to analyze the company's financial condition, in which companies can predict opportunities for financial distress. Among them are using bankruptcy prediction models, one of which is zmijewski, altman z-score and ohlson. The aim of the researchers was to determine the prediction of financial distress in cigarette companies listed on the IDX for the 2018-2022 period using the Zmijewski method, altman z-score and Ohlson. This research is a descriptive research,The results show that the Zmijewski method predicts all healthy companies, the Altman Z-Score method for three companies is said to be healthy and the Ohlson method has two companies in good health. Ohlson's method has a high degree of accuracy72% with Typel Elrror 1 at 20% and Typel Elrror II at 8%. So that the Ohlson model is the most appropriate to use in predicting financial distress in cigarette companies listed on the Indonesian Efek Exchange (BEI).

담배가격 인상이 중장년층의 흡연에 미친 영향

This study examines the impact of the largest cigarette price increase policy in Korean history in 2015 on the smoking behavior of middle-aged and elderly individuals. The smoking behavior of middle-aged and elderly individuals is important because their proportion is increasing as Korean society enters an aging society, and considering the addictive nature of smoking, the behavior of individuals with longer smoking periods may differ. To investigate this, data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) from the 3rd to the 6th wave were used. In order to consider the decreasing trend in smoking rates that had been occurring even before the policy implementation, regression analysis was conducted, including the pre-policy period of six years. The results showed that without considering the time trend, the smoking rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points. However, when considering the time trend, no significant decrease in smoking rate was found. Similarly, there was no significant decrease in smoking quantity due to the cigarette price increase policy.

Impacts of Tax and Flavor Tobacco Policies on San Francisco Bay Area Tobacco Prices.

California Proposition 56 increased the state tobacco tax by $2 per cigarette pack effective April 1, 2017. Between 2015-2020 San Francisco (SF) and some cities in Alameda County enacted local flavored tobacco sales restrictions. SF also increased its Cigarette Litter Abatement Fee, from $0.20/pack in 2015 to $1.00 in 2020. Compare the change in tobacco prices before (2015) and after (2019/20) the implementation of a $2 increase in tobacco excise tax and local flavored tobacco policies in SF and Alameda Counties. Descriptive study of the pre-to-post policy analysis design. We drew a proportional random sample of retailers (N=463) in SF and Alameda Counties, by city. Using multivariable, single- and multiple-level linear regressions, we compared inflation-adjusted average tobacco prices in 2015 vs. 2019/20 by county and by flavor policy, accounting for socio-demographics. Change in inflation-adjusted average tobacco prices in 2015 vs. 2019/20 by county and flavor policy, accounting for socio-demographics. Between 2015-2019/20, the increase in cigarette prices was higher than the $2 tax increase, and higher in SF than Alameda County (+$4.6 vs +$2.5). SF retailers stopped selling Newport menthol cigarettes and Blu brand menthol e-cigarettes in 2019/20. Adjusted average cigarette prices increased significantly more in SF and Alameda County cities with comprehensive or partial flavor policies versus cities without flavor policies (by $3.23 and $2.11). Local flavor policies affected menthol product availability and may have had positive spillover effects and indirectly increased pack prices.

Benefits of the cigarette tax in Mexico, by sex and income quintileBenefícios do imposto sobre cigarros no México: análise por sexo e quintil de renda

RESUMENObjetivo.Estimar los beneficios económicos y en salud, por sexo y por quintil de ingreso, del incremento de los precios de los cigarros mediante impuestos en México.Métodos.Con un modelo de costo-efectividad extendido (ECEA, por su sigla en inglés) se estimaron los beneficios distributivos en mujeres y hombres con un escenario de incremento del precio de los cigarros de 44% (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] a MX$81,2 por cajetilla), como resultado de triplicar el impuesto específico actual (de MX$0,49/cigarro a MX$1,49/cigarro). El modelo se calibró con fuentes oficiales de información nacionalResultados.Con el incremento del impuesto de un peso por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 millones de fumadores abandonarían el consumo (351 300 mujeres y 1,1 millón de hombres). Así, se evitarían aproximadamente 630 000 muertes prematuras atribuibles al tabaco. La reducción de la carga de enfermedad permitiría ahorros para el sector salud cercanos a MX$42 800 millones y evitaría que más de 250 000 personas (entre ellas, 50 200 mujeres fumadoras) cayeran en situación de pobreza. Además, se recaudarían MX$16 200 millones adicionales por año, de los cuales el quintil más bajo aportaría menos de 3% (1% en el caso de las mujeres de menores ingresos).Conclusiones.La epidemia de tabaquismo tiene patrones claramente diferenciados entre mujeres y hombres y reflejan un componente de género. Si bien los beneficios del impuesto al tabaco en México tendrían magnitudes relativas al estado actual de la epidemia en cada caso, estos podrían contribuir a un objetivo más amplio de justicia social mediante la reducción de las inequidades de género.

The association between smoking behaviors and prices and taxes per cigarette pack in the United States from 2000 through 2019

ObjectiveThe conclusions on how tax and price increases affect smoking behaviors are mixed. This work is devoted to re-evaluating the relationship between cigarette prices and taxes and smoking behaviors.MethodsUsing 2000–2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, we employed linear mixed-effect models to re-examine the impact of cigarette prices and taxes on smoking prevalence and the proportion of current smokers having tried to quit smoking in the past 12 months. All the analyses were conducted for the general population, then by age group, gender, race/ethnicity, and income level.ResultsThe results indicate that higher cigarette prices and taxes were associated with a decrease in smoking prevalence and an increased likelihood of quitting smoking. Cigarette tax and price increases produced the most powerful impact on the smoking prevalence of 18- to 24-year-olds. The estimates also show that males tended to be more price-sensitive than females. Raising cigarette prices and taxes was estimated to be more effective in reducing the smoking prevalence among non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics when compared to non-Hispanic whites. Cigarette price and tax changes were likely to have a smaller effect on individuals with annual income under $25,000 relative to individuals with higher income levels.ConclusionsIncreases in cigarette prices and taxes are significantly associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence and an increased likelihood of quitting smoking among adults across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. However, as cigarette price and tax changes disproportionately affect low-income individuals, raising cigarette prices and taxes may deepen income disparities.

The effect of cigarette prices and income on cigarettes consumption and state revenue: Case study of 33 provinces in Indonesia

Besides having a destructive impact on smokers, cigarette consumption also creates a negative externality for passive smokers. Thus, the government implements cigarette excise to control cigarette consumption while increasing state revenue. This study aims to determine the effect of cigarette prices and income on cigarette consumption and the impact of excise tariffs on cigarette consumption and excise tax revenue. The data used are 33 provincial data in Indonesia from 2013 to 2018. The methods in this research are panel data regression using fixed-effect with GLS for model one and a random effect for model two. The results indicated that the cigarette price elasticity and income elasticity of demand were -0.317 and 0.635, respectively, showing that cigarette consumption is inelastic. In the simulation, an increase in excise tariffs by 10%, 25%, and 50%, respectively, led to a decrease in cigarette consumption by 1.55%, 3.86%, and 7.73%, and an increase in state revenue from excise by 8.3%, 20.17%, and 38.41%. It can be concluded that an increase in cigarette excise rates causes an increase in cigarette prices, leading to a decrease in cigarette consumption. Furthermore, the decline in cigarette consumption increased state revenues from excise.

The introduction of tobacco excise taxation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: a step in the right direction of advancing public health

BackgroundThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries relied, until recently, solely on import duties for tobacco products. The agreement for the introduction of an excise and value added tax (VAT) in 2016 and 2017, respectively, in most GCC countries, was a major breakthrough for public health. There is, however, ample room for improvement.MethodsThe study examines the outcomes of tax reforms, for both public health and public finances, based on the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations and best practices worldwide. Tax simulations were performed using the WHO TaXSiM model. The study is based on data from Saudi Arabia, the only GCC country for which sufficient data existed.ResultsWe recommend a stepwise tax reform, which involves increasing the current ad valorem excise tax rate, phasing out import duties keeping total tax share constant and introducing a minimum excise, and finally switching to a revenue-neutral specific excise. Specific excises must be adjusted for inflation and income increases. If implemented, cigarette tax reform simulations show that the recommended reforms would lead to a higher than 50% increase in cigarette prices, 16% reduction in cigarette sales and almost 50% increase in total cigarette tax revenue. A significant number of cigarette-related deaths would be averted.ConclusionsThe recommended tax reforms are expected to lead to significant improvements in both public health and tobacco tax revenues. Our results provide useful insights that are of relevance to the whole GGC region. The effectiveness of the reforms, however, requires a strong tax and customs administration, including the establishment of a good database to monitor and advance public health.