Increase Voter Turnout Research Articles

The relevance and resilience of the cordon sanitaire in Portugal: the March 2024 legislative elections

ABSTRACT On 10 March 2024, Portugal held a snap legislative election. Marked by a considerable increase in turnout, it inaugurated a new era in Portuguese politics, with the increased support for the populist radical right and a right-wing parliamentary majority. However, a cordon sanitaire strategy kept Chega out of the new cabinet. The election gave rise to a minority coalition government and a tripartite parliamentary landscape, with the mainstream right, the populist right, and the left parties forming three competing blocks. This article examines the 2024 election and a possible link between the rise of the radical right and increased voter turnout. We conclude that the fact that more citizens turned out in this election only partially explains Chega’s growth.

Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization

This paper develops a behavioral public choice model. It provides testable hypothesis to explain voter shifts in European national elections in the last decade. The model comprises three blocs of parties, the government, the opposition and so-called “profiteers”. Retrospective voters evaluate the performance of each bloc. Furthermore, it introduces an exogenous polarizing event that can affect the government’s and the profiteers’ chance to satisfy voters. Moreover, voters are subject to the negativity bias, which means that negative changes in probabilities to satisfy are stronger than positive changes. This framework yields various results on voting behavior under polarization. Most are robust to the introduction of non-voting. The government only profits from polarization iff sufficiently many positively voters are polarized in their favor to outweigh both the negativity bias and the increased competitiveness by profiteers due to polarization. Profiteers, strengthened by polarization, harm the opposition and increase voter turnout. Additionally, a higher negativity bias impairs the government, decreases voter turnout and benefits the opposition and profiteers.

Does decentralization boost electoral participation? Revisiting the question in a non-western context

Since the late 1970s, intergovernmental relationships worldwide have undergone an unequivocal transformation, with powers increasingly shifting toward subnational governments. One of the expected outcomes of decentralization reforms is a (re)vitalization of participation in subnational decision-making. If available empirical evidence tends to support this claim, it has remained primarily restricted to Western countries. This article leverages asymmetric decentralization arrangements in Ukraine to re-examine the effect of decentralization on voter turnout in a diverging setting. It conducts matching and regression analyses using an original city-level dataset that combines electoral, census, administrative, financial and geospatial data. The results converge on a significantly positive effect on voter turnout in local elections of more than 4 percentage points. Additional analyses concerning the mechanisms suggest that the effect might be driven by citizens’ awareness of electoral stakes. Interestingly, the increase in voter turnout appears concomitant with lower perceived local government performance.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ДЭГ НА ЯВКУ ИЗБИРАТЕЛЕЙ НА ВЫБОРАХ В РОССИИ В 2021–2023 ГГ.

Remote electronic voting, also known as i-voting, transforms elections in Russia and worldwide, opening up new opportunities for the state and society to move from agent-object to subject-to-subject relations. However, the impact of i-voting on political processes, especially at the regional level, is yet to be studied by social sciences. The author analyzed the effect of remote electronic voting on voter turnout at the federal and regional elections in Russia in 2021–2023 and compared them with the turnout that involved traditional means of voting. The cross-regional and cross-temporal analysis of electoral statistics partially proved that remote electronic voting as an additional voting channel increased voter turnout at the federal level. The Russian electronic voting network appeared to be an efficient state operator in 2021–2023. However, the increase in voter turnout was lower in the regions. If subjected to strict public control, remote electronic voting can justifiably considered as an effective form of conventional political participation.

Faith, Networks, and the Ballot: Unveiling the Hidden Drivers of Voting Intentions in Indonesia's 2024 Election

This study investigates the extent to which social network characteristics, religious identity, and past political participation influence voting intentions in Indonesia's 2024 general election, with a particular focus on the implications of religiosity in a predominantly Muslim society. A quantitative survey method was employed, gathering primary data through both online and offline surveys from 314 participants across selected locations in Indonesia. Multilevel modelling techniques were used to analyse the relationship between social network characteristics, religious identity, and voting intentions. The results revealed that social network characteristics, such as the frequency of interaction and socio-political discussions, do not significantly influence voting intentions. In contrast, religiocentrism negatively impacts voting intentions, suggesting that individuals with more conservative religious beliefs are less likely to vote. However, past offline political participation was found to be a strong positive predictor of voting intentions. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions that address the concerns of conservative religious groups and reinforce the civic duty associated with voting. Understanding the limited role of social networks in this context can inform strategies to increase voter turnout in future elections. This study provides new insights into the complex interplay between religious identity, social networks, and political behaviour in Indonesia, a predominantly Muslim and culturally diverse nation, particularly in the post-pandemic socio-political landscape.

Transformasi Partisipasi Politik Masyarakat Desa melalui E-Voting dalam Pemilihan Kepala Desa di Desa Sibolangit, Kecamatan Merek

This study aims to examine the transformation of political participation in the village community through e-voting in the election of village heads in Sibolangit Village, Merek Subdistrict. The research method used is qualitative, employing data collection techniques such as interviews, observations, and document analysis. The research participants include village residents, election organizers, and local authorities. The findings reveal that the implementation of e-voting has significantly transformed political participation among the village community. E-voting has increased voter turnout, streamlined the voting process, and enhanced transparency and accountability in the election process. Additionally, it has empowered marginalized groups, such as women and youth, by providing them with easier access to participate in the electoral process. However, challenges such as digital literacy gaps and concerns over cybersecurity need to be addressed to ensure the effectiveness and inclusivity of e-voting. Overall, e-voting has the potential to democratize the electoral process and strengthen grassroots democracy in Sibolangit Village.

Does ranked choice Voting Increase voter turnout and mobilization?

Many jurisdictions in the United States have recently adopted single-winner ranked choice voting (RCV) to replace first-past-the-post plurality elections. This study contributes to the literature examining the potential consequences of changing to RCV by modeling the relationship between electoral systems and voter turnout. We propose that RCV may increase turnout by incentivizing increased contacts with voters. Previous attempts at assessing the relationship between RCV and turnout in the US have been limited by a lack of individual-level turnout data measured across all cases where RCV is and is not used. The study utilizes large, unique data from administrative voter turnout records that overcomes this limitation. We find significant and substantially higher probabilities of turnout in places that use RCV, and find evidence that campaigns in RCV places have greater incidences of direct voter contacting than in similar places that do not use RCV.

Why Making Voting Easier Isn’t Enough: Early Voting, Campaigns, and Voter Turnout

Early voting laws intended to increase voter turnout seem to have had little to no effect on turnout. Why? We argue that the effects of early voting on turnout are contingent on campaigns providing citizens with information about the election, their choices, and how to vote early. When campaigns do so, turnout increases because citizens are more likely to vote – and more likely to vote early. Using individual-level panel data, we show that direct campaign contact increases turnout exclusively via the use of early voting. Using county-level data, we show that campaign ad volume also increases turnout via an increase in early voting turnout. Our results affirm our expectation that campaigns facilitate the expected mobilizing effects of early voting. At the same time, the effects of campaigns on early voting are small in magnitude, and emerge only under campaign mobilization conditions that are more the exception than the norm.

The effect of education on voter turnout in China's rural elections

Conventional wisdom and evidence from democracies suggest that more education should increase voter turnout. This paper revisits this issue by analyzing turnout in China's rural elections. Employing an instrumental variable strategy, I find that more education reduces turnout in rural elections. I provide suggestive evidence that more educated people may face higher opportunity costs of voting, which explain about a quarter of cross-province variation in education-turnout links. I also discuss the role of other factors, including Confucian culture and election stakes.

Divining Elections: Religious Citizens’ Political Projections and Electoral Turnout in Israel and France

Abstract How do religious citizens’ election projections influence voter turnout? While previous studies have demonstrated the significant impact of religious orientation on individuals’ general future outlook, little is known about the influence of religion on voters’ electoral expectations and how these expectations affect voter turnout. In this paper, we employ a nuanced conceptual framework of election projections and examine the impact of religion on both the affective and probabilistic aspects of citizens’ expectations regarding election outcomes. Our analysis draws upon original panel survey data collected in two countries, focusing on the 2021 Israeli general elections and the 2022 French presidential elections. The findings reveal a mobilizing effect of religious citizens’ election projections in both Israel and France. Specifically, religious voters tend to have more positive affective forecasts about their projected election outcomes, consequently resulting in increased voter turnout. While affective forecasting plays a significant role in religious citizens’ turnout, probabilistic certitude does not have a similar effect. We discuss the contribution and implications of these findings for research on religion and political behavior.

Secure and Decentralized Voting System using Block Chain Technology

In today's democracies, increasing restrictions due to the inconvenience of physically traveling to vote is a big problem. These recommendations support the development of remote electronic voting as a solution to increase voter turnout by eliminating the need for travel. The document demonstrates the effectiveness of remote electronic voting, noting that it not only speeds up results but also reduces the risks inherent in voting by ballot paper. The article acknowledges the important role of security, trust, and transparency in promoting confidence, arguing that the implementation of electronic elections in remote areas should be well possible in these areas, especially given the high risks associated with elections. The discussion also delves into the integration of blockchain technology and introduces the concept of block sealing, demonstrating its adaptation to meet the specific requirements of the election process. One of the main recommendations made is the adoption of a blockchain organizational model that provides ownership and oversight by the governing body. This governance model is seen as a measure that will increase accountability and increase public confidence in the integrity of elections. However, the document acknowledges that many challenges need to be addressed, including cybersecurity threats. He emphasized that legal, ethical, and social issues must be taken into account to maintain and strengthen public trust. The combination of new technology and a strong administrative foundation is considered necessary for the success of remote e-voting. This review concludes by advocating continuous research and development efforts to refine and fortify remote voting systems. The intricate interplay between technology, governance, and public perception emerges as a key focus for realizing the full potential of remote electronic voting in shaping the future of democratic processes. We present the wording utilized in blockchain-based existing ballot frameworks in this segment. They are sorted in light of the agreement calculations, blockchain system, cryptography, qualities of a fruitful framework, and the advancement instruments used to carry out blockchain e-casting ballot frameworks

Policy Solutions: We need a school board election holiday

Voter turnout for school board elections is historically low, with tiny percentages deciding who governs schools. Columnist Jonathan E. Collins proposes a new federal holiday, School Board Election Day, to increase voter turnout and public involvement and interest in public schools. School board elections would be held on the same day nationally, and voters would be encouraged to visit schools not only to vote but to participate in forums and projects to benefit schools.

ANOMALI DEMOKRASI INDONESIA: Kontroversi Peningkatan Partisipasi Politik pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah dalam masa Pandemi Covid-19

This study discusses the implementation of regional head elections in Indonesia which took place during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study focuses on explaining the high level of voter turnout when Covid-19 hit Indonesia in 2020 which exceeded the turnout rate in normal situations and contrary to the trend of declining global voter turnout. This research uses descriptive qualitative methods with secondary data obtained from official government institutions (especially the election commission and Ministry of Health), mass media both newspapers and other social media, as well as the results of research conducted by other researchers. The results showed that the high level of voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was an anomaly of democracy in the midst of activity restrictions and the trend of declining global voter turnout. The high voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was inversely proportional to the economic downturn and public confidence in government. This study found that the main factor for increasing voter turnout during the Covid-19 pandemic was the massive mobilization of social assistance funds from the government. Theoretically, this is a synthesis of the mobilization model and the general incentives model of participation in a pragmatic context.

Close actions speak louder than distant words? The effect of local parties on voter turnout in Swedish local elections 1994–2018

ABSTRACT Does the presence of local political parties increase turnout in municipal elections? A handful of previous studies have found that local parties indeed have this effect. Against that backdrop, we examine the impact of the rapid growth in the number of local parties on voter turnout in Swedish local elections. We test the so-called “best of both worlds” hypothesis, which predicts that the presence of local parties – alongside lists of local branches of national party organizations – increases choice for the voters, and thereby increases voter turnout. Our empirical tests employ data from seven Swedish local elections between 1994 and 2018. Ultimately, and contrary to findings from other settings, our results suggest that the presence of local parties does not contribute to higher voter turnout in Sweden. We maintain that this most likely is due to Sweden being a tough test for this hypothesis since Sweden has some unique institutional characteristics, such as concurrent elections and high baseline turnout in local elections.

The Use of Public Relations in Political Campaigns in Nigeria.

Public relations (PR) play an essential role in political campaigns in Nigeria. This study examines the use of public relations in political campaigns in Nigeria and its impact on political communication. Political campaigns in Nigeria have evolved from door-to-door meetings and rallies to sophisticated campaigns that use public relations techniques such as media relations, social media, public speaking and other related tactics. Public relations strategies used in political campaigns in Nigeria include agenda setting, issue creation, image building and crisis management. Political campaigns also use media gatekeepers to influence news production and build a positive public image. This study highlights the positive and negative impacts of PR on political campaigns in Nigeria, including increased voter turnout, use of propaganda, polarization and political violence. The methodology that will used to achieve this objective, qualitative research design will be employed. Qualitative research methods are useful in exploring complex phenomena, understanding social processes, and generating in-depth accounts of experiences, attitudes, and behaviors. The study concluded that while public relations is critical to the success of political campaigns in Nigeria, it must be used ethically and responsibly. In addition, political campaigns must be open and fair and must not use propaganda, polarization or violence to gain political power. Finally, five recommendation was suggested.

Athletes and activism, and the NBA: through the lens of added value theory

This research study took an in-depth look at how the National Basketball Association (NBA) and its athletes influenced voter turnout for the 2020 presidential election. The NBA worked with athletes and communities to create a space for Black voters to cast their ballot in a safe and efficient manner in the 2020 presidential election. Value Added Theory (VAT) assisted in understanding how events in 2020 surrounding the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, influenced the NBA as an organisation and NBA athletes to mobilise and use their influence and platform to increase voter turnout in urban areas across the U.S. This study applied a mixed methods methodology in which researchers interviewed a representative from three voting rights organisations who were dedicated to mobilising Black voters during the 2020 presidential election. A content analysis methodology was also used to gather voter turnout data for U.S. counties with NBA teams to compare voter turnout from 2016 to 2020. This methodology helped to produce context for how athlete activism influenced the 2020 election. Results show that NBA athletes and the NBA as a league, had a notable impact on voter turnout in the 2020 election through the use of social media, donations, access, mobilisation of Black voters, and combating voter suppression. This paper illustrates how athletes and an organisation, worked together to make structural and effective change within their communities, by leveraging their resources and influential platform.

UNVEILING THE HIDDEN LINK: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND VOTER TURNOUT IN BALOCHISTAN, PAKISTAN

The province of Balochistan in Pakistan provides an intriguing opportunity to analyze the complex correlation between human development and voter engagement. This study aims to determine if there is a direct relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI) and voter turnout in Balochistan. The study utilizes a quantitative research approach, analyzing data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and voter participation records for districts in Balochistan, Pakistan. The HDI data was acquired from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), whilst the voter turnout data was gathered from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The study's findings indicate no direct correlation between HDI and voter turnout. Some districts with low Human Development Index (HDI) values have a high voter turnout, whereas, on the other hand, certain districts with high HDI values have a low voter turnout. These findings indicate that other factors beyond HDI substantially influence voter turnout in Balochistan. Further research would be helpful to thoroughly understand the intricate relationship between HDI and voter turnout in Balochistan. These research efforts have the potential to find strategies that can increase voter turnout in the province.

Blockchain Voting: A Step Towards Inclusive Democracy

Abstract: The online voting system that incorporates blockchain technology aims to transform the voting process by introducing upgraded trust, transparency and security. Through the utilization of a decentralized blockchain network, the proposed system ensures that each vote is securely recorded and verified, thereby establishing an immutable and tamper-resistant voting mechanism. One of the fundamental feature of the system is eligible voter verification. By leveraging blockchain's distributed nature, the system can verify the identity and eligibility of each voter, ensure that eligible individuals can only participate in the voting system. This authentication process adds an additional layer of security and helps prevent fraudulent activities. Secure vote casting is another crucial component of the proposed voting system. Through the utilization of blockchain, each and every vote is encrypted and securely stored in a decentralized manner. This ensures that votes cannot be altered or manipulated, providing a high level of integrity to the voting process. Additionally, the system emphasizes transparent result tallying. The decentralized nature of blockchain technology allows for the public verification of votes, enabling anyone to audit the voting process. This transparency enhances trust among voters, as it provides them with the ability to independently verify the accuracy of the election results. Overall, the proposed online voting system, empowered by blockchain technology, offers a transparent, secure and tamper-resistant solution for conducting elections. By leveraging the benefits of blockchain, such as decentralization and immutability, the system addresses the challenges faced by traditional voting systems and provides a more reliable and trustworthy platform for the democratic process. It has the potential to enhance the integrity of elections, increase voter turnout, and foster trust in the electoral system.

Los nadies y las nadies: The Effect of Peacebuilding on Political Behavior in Colombia

ABSTRACT How do peacebuilding institutions affect political behavior? This article studies the historic victory of the Colombian left in the 2022 presidential elections in light of the implementation of local peacebuilding programs through the 2016 Peace Accords. Using a quasi-experimental design, we show that the Development Plans with a Territorial Focus (PDET), a central component of the 2016 Peace Accords between the government and the FARC, increased the vote share for the leftist coalition, Pacto Histórico, in the 2022 elections by increasing voter turnout in PDET regions. In a departure from existing literature, we find that the explanatory effect of violence on vote share is significantly reduced when we include an indicator for PDET implementation and additional covariates. While there is a substantial body of work examining the effects of conflict violence and the presence of armed actors on elections, there has been relatively little focus on how the peacebuilding has affected vote choice and political behavior. We see our project as a bridge to fill this gap in the literature.

Messages Designed to Increase Perceived Electoral Closeness Increase Turnout

The decision-theoretic Downsian model and other related accounts predict that increasing perceptions of election closeness will increase turnout. Does this prediction hold? Past observational and experimental tests raise generalizability and credible inference issues. Prior field experiments either (1) compare messages emphasizing election closeness to non-closeness messages, potentially conflating changes in closeness perceptions with framing effects of the voter encouragement message, or (2) deliver information about a particular race’s closeness, potentially altering beliefs about the features of that election apart from its closeness. We address the limitations of prior work in a large-scale field experiment conducted in seven states and find that a telephone message describing a class of contests as decided by fewer, as opposed to more, votes increases voter turnout. Furthermore, this effect exceeds that of a standard election reminder. The results imply expected electoral closeness affects turnout and that perceptions of closeness can be altered to increase participation.