Increase In Atmospheric Methane Research Articles

The methane imperative

Anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions increases from the period 1850–1900 until 2019 are responsible for around 65% as much warming as carbon dioxide (CO2) has caused to date, and large reductions in methane emissions are required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. However, methane emissions have been increasing rapidly since ~2006. This study shows that emissions are expected to continue to increase over the remainder of the 2020s if no greater action is taken and that increases in atmospheric methane are thus far outpacing projected growth rates. This increase has important implications for reaching net zero CO2 targets: every 50 Mt CH4 of the sustained large cuts envisioned under low-warming scenarios that are not realized would eliminate about 150 Gt of the remaining CO2 budget. Targeted methane reductions are therefore a critical component alongside decarbonization to minimize global warming. We describe additional linkages between methane mitigation options and CO2, especially via land use, as well as their respective climate impacts and associated metrics. We explain why a net zero target specifically for methane is neither necessary nor plausible. Analyses show where reductions are most feasible at the national and sectoral levels given limited resources, for example, to meet the Global Methane Pledge target, but they also reveal large uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, many mitigation costs are clearly low relative to real-world financial instruments and very low compared with methane damage estimates, but legally binding regulations and methane pricing are needed to meet climate goals.

Source apportionment of methane emissions from the Upper Silesian Coal Basin using isotopic signatures

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions are the primary source of the increase in atmospheric methane (CH4) levels. However, estimates of anthropogenic CH4 emissions still show large uncertainties at global and regional scales. Differences in CH4 isotopic source signatures δ13C and δ2H can help to constrain different source contributions (e.g., fossil, waste, agriculture). The Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) represents one of the largest European CH4 emission regions, with more than 500 Gg CH4 yr−1 released from more than 50 coal mine ventilation shafts, landfills, and wastewater treatment plants. During the CoMet (Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission) campaign in June 2018 methane observations were conducted from a variety of platforms including aircraft and cars to quantify these emissions. Besides the continuous sampling of atmospheric methane concentration, numerous air samples were taken from inside and around the ventilation shafts (1–2 km distance) and aboard the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) and DLR Cessna Caravan aircraft, and they were analyzed in the laboratory for the isotopic composition of CH4. The airborne samples downwind of the USCB contained methane from the entire region and thus enabled determining the mean signature of the USCB accurately. This mean isotopic signature of methane emissions was -50.9±0.7 ‰ for δ13C and -226±9 ‰ for δ2H. This is in the range of previous USCB studies based on samples taken within the mines for δ13C but more depleted in δ2H than reported before. Signatures of methane enhancements sampled upwind of the mines and in the free troposphere clearly showed the influence of biogenic sources. We determined the source signatures of individual coal mine ventilation shafts using ground-based samples. These signatures displayed a considerable range between different mines and also varied for individual shafts from day to day. Different layers of the USCB coal contain thermogenic methane, isotopically similar to natural gas, and methane formed through biogenic carbonate reduction. The signatures vary depending on what layer of coal is mined at the time of sampling. Mean shaft signatures range from −60 ‰ to −42 ‰ for δ13C and from −200 ‰ to −160 ‰ for δ2H. A gradient in the signatures of subregions of the USCB is reflected both in the aircraft data and in the ground samples, with emissions from the southwest being most depleted in δ2H and emissions from the south being most depleted in δ13C, which is probably associated with the structural and lithostratigraphic history of the USCB and generation and migration processes of methane in the coal. The average signature of -49.8±5.7 ‰ in δ13C and -184±32 ‰ in δ2H from the ventilation shafts clearly differs from the USCB regional signature in δ2H. This makes a source attribution using δ2H signatures possible, which would not be possible with only the δ13C isotopic signatures. We assume that the USCB plume mainly contains fossil coal mine methane and biogenic methane from waste treatment, because the USCB is a highly industrialized region with few other possible methane sources. Assuming a biogenic methane signature between and −320 ‰ and −280 ‰ for δ2H, the biogenic methane emissions from the USCB account for 15 %–50 % of total emissions. The uncertainty range shows the need of comprehensive and extensive sampling from all possible source sectors for source apportionment. The share of anthropogenic–biogenic emissions of 0.4 %–14 % from this densely populated industrial region is underestimated in commonly used emission inventories. Generally, this study demonstrates the importance of δ2H-CH4 observations for methane source apportionment in regions with a mix of thermogenic and biogenic sources and, especially in our case, where the δ13C signature of the coal mine gas has a large variability.

Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021

Abstract. The global atmospheric methane growth rates reported by NOAA for 2020 and 2021 are the largest since systematic measurements began in 1983. To explore the underlying reasons for these anomalous growth rates, we use newly available methane data from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to estimate methane surface emissions. Relative to baseline values in 2019, we find that a significant global increase in methane emissions of 27.0 ± 11.3 and 20.8 ± 11.4 Tg is needed to reproduce observed atmospheric methane in 2020 and 2021, respectively, assuming fixed climatological values for OH. We see the largest annual increases in methane emissions during 2020 over Eastern Africa (14 ± 3 Tg), tropical Asia (3 ± 4 Tg), tropical South America (5 ± 4 Tg), and temperate Eurasia (3 ± 3 Tg), and the largest reductions are observed over China (−6 ± 3 Tg) and India (−2 ± 3 Tg). We find comparable emission changes in 2021, relative to 2019, except for tropical and temperate South America where emissions increased by 9 ± 4 and 4 ± 3 Tg, respectively, and for temperate North America where emissions increased by 5 ± 2 Tg. The elevated contributions we saw in 2020 over the western half of Africa (−5 ± 3 Tg) are substantially reduced in 2021, compared to our 2019 baseline. We find statistically significant positive correlations between anomalies of tropical methane emissions and groundwater, consistent with recent studies that have highlighted a growing role for microbial sources over the tropics. Emission reductions over India and China are expected in 2020 due to the Covid-19 lockdown but continued in 2021, which we do not currently understand. To investigate the role of reduced OH concentrations during the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020 on the elevated atmospheric methane growth in 2020–2021, we extended our inversion state vector to include monthly scaling factors for OH concentrations over six latitude bands. During 2020, we find that tropospheric OH is reduced by 1.4 ± 1.7 % relative to the corresponding 2019 baseline value. The corresponding revised global growth of a posteriori methane emissions in 2020 decreased by 34 % to 17.9 ± 13.2 Tg, relative to the a posteriori value that we inferred using fixed climatological OH values, consistent with sensitivity tests using the OH climatology inversion using reduced values for OH. The counter statement is that 66 % of the global increase in atmospheric methane during 2020 was due to increased emissions, particularly from tropical regions. Regional flux differences between the joint methane–OH inversion and the OH climatology inversion in 2020 are typically much smaller than 10 %. We find that OH is reduced by a much smaller amount during 2021 than in 2020, representing about 10 % of the growth of atmospheric methane in that year. Therefore, we conclude that most of the observed increase in atmospheric methane during 2020 and 2021 is due to increased emissions, with a significant contribution from reduced levels of OH.

The role of rice cultivation in changes in atmospheric methane concentration and the Global Methane Pledge.

Resumption of the increase in atmospheric methane (CH4 ) concentrations since 2007 is of global concern and may partly have resulted from emissions from rice cultivation. Estimates of CH4 emissions from rice fields and abatement potential are essential to assess the contribution of improved rice management in achieving the targets of the Global Methane Pledge agreed upon by over 100 countries at COP26. However, the contribution of CH4 emissions from rice fields to the resumed CH4 growth and the global abatement potential remains unclear. In this study, we estimated the global CH4 emissions from rice fields to be 27 ± 6 Tg CH4 year-1 in the recent decade (2008-2017) based on the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The trend of CH4 emissions from rice cultivation showed an increase followed by no significant change and then, a stabilization over 1990-2020. Consequently, the contribution of CH4 emissions from rice fields to the renewed increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations since 2007 was minor. We summarized the existing low-cost measures and showed that improved water and straw management could reduce one-third of global CH4 emissions from rice fields. Straw returned as biochar could reduce CH4 emissions by 12 Tg CH4 year-1 , equivalent to 10% of the total reduction of all anthropogenic emissions. We conclude that other sectors than rice cultivation must have contributed to the renewed increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations, and that optimizing multiple mitigation measures in rice fields could contribute significantly to the abatement goal outlined in the Global Methane Pledge.

Improved global wetland carbon isotopic signatures support post-2006 microbial methane emission increase

Atmospheric concentrations of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, have strongly increased since 2007. Measurements of stable carbon isotopes of methane can constrain emissions if the isotopic compositions are known; however, isotopic compositions of methane emissions from wetlands are poorly constrained despite their importance. Here, we use a process-based biogeochemistry model to calculate the stable carbon isotopic composition of global wetland methane emissions. We estimate a mean global signature of −61.3 ± 0.7‰ and find that tropical wetland emissions are enriched by ~11‰ relative to boreal wetlands. Our model shows improved resolution of regional, latitudinal and global variations in isotopic composition of wetland emissions. Atmospheric simulation scenarios with the improved wetland isotopic composition suggest that increases in atmospheric methane since 2007 are attributable to rising microbial emissions. Our findings substantially reduce uncertainty in the stable carbon isotopic composition of methane emissions from wetlands and improve understanding of the global methane budget.

Massive Natural Gas Hydrate Dissociation During the Penultimate Deglaciation (~130 ka) in the South China Sea

There is widespread and growing scientific interest in the impact of massive gas hydrate dissociation on the global environment and climate in geological history. Based on that a global negative excursion of carbon isotopic compositions in marine (foraminifera) and terrestrial (the organic carbon and calcite) sedimentary records occurred during the penultimate deglaciation (~130 ka), we believe that methane released by hydrate dissociation may play a role in accelerating the initial increase of atmospheric methane. In order to prove that massive natural gas hydrate dissociation occurred in this period, we aim to seek for evidence of gas hydrate dissociation from seep carbonate. Here, X-ray diffraction, carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions, trace elements, and U-Th dating analyses were conducted on the deeply-buried authigenic carbonate obtained by drilling in the northern continental slope of the South China Sea. Authigenic carbonate formed at ~130 ka showed obvious characteristics of negative excursion of carbon isotope, positive excursion of oxygen isotope, and enrichment of redox sensitive elements such as Mo, U and As. These results, in particular the high oxygen isotopic compositions of carbonate, point to massive gas hydrate dissociation in the northern continental slope of the South China Sea during the penultimate deglaciation. It is further speculated that massive gas hydrate dissociation might have also occurred on a global scale, contributing to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations during the penultimate deglaciation, and may eventually cause global carbon isotope negative excursion.

Shipborne measurements of methane and carbon dioxide in the Middle East and Mediterranean areas and the contribution from oil and gas emissions

Abstract. The increase of atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), two of the main anthropogenic greenhouse gases, is largely driven by fossil sources. Sources and sinks remain insufficiently characterized in the Mediterranean and Middle East areas, where very few in situ measurements are available. We measured the atmospheric mixing ratios of CH4 and CO2 by ship in the region in July and August 2017. High mixing ratios were observed over the Suez Canal, Red Sea and Arabian Gulf, while generally lower mixing ratios were observed over the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Oman. We probe the origin of the CO2 and CH4 excess mixing ratio by using correlations with light alkanes and through the use of a Lagrangian model coupled to two different emission inventories of anthropogenic sources. We find that the CO2 and especially the CH4 enhancements are mainly linked to nearby oil and gas (OG) activities over the Arabian Gulf and a mixture of other sources over the Red Sea. The isomeric ratio of pentane is shown to be a useful indicator of the OG component of atmospheric CH4 at the regional level. Upstream emissions linked to oil in the northern Arabian Gulf seem to be underestimated, while gas-related emissions in the southern Gulf are overestimated in our simulations. Our results highlight the need for improvement of inventories in the area to better characterize the changes in magnitude and the complex distribution of the OG sources in the Middle East.

Biogenic link to the recent increase in atmospheric methane over India

Methane (CH4) is a prominent Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and its global atmospheric concentration has increased significantly since the year 2007. Anthropogenic CH4 emissions are projected to be 9390 million metric tonnes by 2020. Here, we present the long–term changes in atmospheric methane over India and suggest possible alternatives to reduce soil emissions from paddy fields. The increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 2009 to 2020 in India is significant, about 0.0765 ppm/decade. The Indo-Gangetic Plains, Peninsular India and Central India show about 0.075, 0.076 and 0.074 ppm/decade, respectively, in 2009–2020. Seasonal variations in CH4 emissions depend mostly on agricultural activities and meteorology, and contribution during the agricultural intensive period of Kharif–Rabi (i.e., June–December) is substantial in this regard. The primary reason for agricultural soil emissions is the application of chemical fertilizers to improve crop yield. However, for rice farming, soil amendments involving stable forms of carbon can reduce GHG emissions and improve soil carbon status. High crop production in pot culture experiment resulted in lower potential yield–scaled GHG emissions in rice with biochar supplement. The human impact of global warming induced by agricultural activities could be reduced by using biochar as a natural solution.

Attribution of the accelerating increase in atmospheric methane during 2010–2018 by inverse analysis of GOSAT observations

Abstract. We conduct a global inverse analysis of 2010–2018 GOSAT observations to better understand the factors controlling atmospheric methane and its accelerating increase over the 2010–2018 period. The inversion optimizes anthropogenic methane emissions and their 2010–2018 trends on a 4∘×5∘ grid, monthly regional wetland emissions, and annual hemispheric concentrations of tropospheric OH (the main sink of methane). We use an analytical solution to the Bayesian optimization problem that provides closed-form estimates of error covariances and information content for the solution. We verify our inversion results with independent methane observations from the TCCON and NOAA networks. Our inversion successfully reproduces the interannual variability of the methane growth rate inferred from NOAA background sites. We find that prior estimates of fuel-related emissions reported by individual countries to the United Nations are too high for China (coal) and Russia (oil and gas) and too low for Venezuela (oil and gas) and the US (oil and gas). We show large 2010–2018 increases in anthropogenic methane emissions over South Asia, tropical Africa, and Brazil, coincident with rapidly growing livestock populations in these regions. We do not find a significant trend in anthropogenic emissions over regions with high rates of production or use of fossil methane, including the US, Russia, and Europe. Our results indicate that the peak methane growth rates in 2014–2015 are driven by low OH concentrations (2014) and high fire emissions (2015), while strong emissions from tropical (Amazon and tropical Africa) and boreal (Eurasia) wetlands combined with increasing anthropogenic emissions drive high growth rates in 2016–2018. Our best estimate is that OH did not contribute significantly to the 2010–2018 methane trend other than the 2014 spike, though error correlation with global anthropogenic emissions limits confidence in this result.

Using global isotopic data to constrain the role of shale gas production in recent increases in atmospheric methane

The accelerated increase in global methane (CH4) in the atmosphere, accompanied by a decrease in its 13C/12C isotopic ratio (δ13CCH4) from −47.1‰ to −47.3‰ observed since 2008, has been attributed to increased emissions from wetlands and cattle, as well as from shale gas and shale oil developments. To date both explanations have relied on poorly constrained δ13CCH4 source signatures. We use a dataset of δ13CCH4 from >1600 produced shale gas samples from regions that account for >97% of global shale gas production to constrain the contribution of shale gas emissions to observed atmospheric increases in the global methane burden. We find that US shale gas extracted since 2008 has volume-weighted-average δ13CCH4 of −39.6‰. The average δ13CCH4 weighted by US basin-level measured emissions in 2015 was −41.8‰. Therefore, emission increases from shale gas would contribute to an opposite atmospheric δ13CCH4 signal in the observed decrease since 2008 (while noting that the global isotopic trend is the net of all dynamic source and sink processes). This observation strongly suggests that changing emissions of other (isotopically-lighter) CH4 source terms is dominating the increase in global CH4 emissions. Although production of shale gas has increased rapidly since 2008, and CH4 emissions associated with this increased production are expected to have increased overall in that timeframe, the simultaneously-observed increase in global atmospheric CH4 is not dominated by emissions from shale gas and shale oil developments.

Large Increase in Atmospheric Methane over West Siberian Wetlands during Summer Detected from Space

Large Increase in Atmospheric Methane over West Siberian Wetlands during Summer Detected from Space

Increase of Atmospheric Methane Observed from Space-Borne and Ground-Based Measurements

It has been found that the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4) has rapidly increased since 2007 after a decade of nearly constant concentration in the atmosphere. As an important greenhouse gas, such an increase could enhance the threat of global warming. To better quantify this increasing trend, a novel statistic method, i.e. the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, was used to analyze the CH4 trends from three different measurements: the mid–upper tropospheric CH4 (MUT) from the space-borne measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the CH4 in the marine boundary layer (MBL) from NOAA ground-based in-situ measurements, and the column-averaged CH4 in the atmosphere (XCH4) from the ground-based up-looking Fourier Transform Spectrometers at Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). Comparison of the CH4 trends in the mid–upper troposphere, lower troposphere, and the column average from these three data sets shows that, overall, these trends agree well in capturing the abrupt CH4 increase in 2007 (the first peak) and an even faster increase after 2013 (the second peak) over the globe. The increased rates of CH4 in the MUT, as observed by AIRS, are overall smaller than CH4 in MBL and the column-average CH4. During 2009–2011, there was a dip in the increase rate for CH4 in MBL, and the MUT-CH4 increase rate was almost negligible in the mid-high latitude regions. The increase of the column-average CH4 also reached the minimum during 2009–2011 accordingly, suggesting that the trends of CH4 are not only impacted by the surface emission, however that they also may be impacted by other processes like transport and chemical reaction loss associated with [OH]. One advantage of the EEMD analysis is to derive the monthly rate and the results show that the frequency of the variability of CH4 increase rates in the mid–high northern latitude regions is larger than those in the tropics and southern hemisphere.

Source Apportionment of Ambient Methane Enhancements in Los Angeles, California, To Evaluate Emission Inventory Estimates.

Rapid increase in atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios over the past century is attributable to the intensification of human activities. Information on spatially explicit source contributions is needed to develop efficient and cost-effective CH4 emission reduction and mitigation strategies to addresses near-term climate change. This study collected long-term ambient CH4 measurements at Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) in Los Angeles, California, to estimate the annual CH4 emissions from the portion of Los Angeles County that is within the South Coast Air Basin (SCLA). The measurement-based CH4 emission estimates for SCLA ranged from 3.95 to 4.89 million metric tons (MMT) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per year between 2012 and 2016. Source apportionment of CH4, CO, CO2, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measurements were used to evaluate source categories that contributed to ambient CH4 mixing ratio enhancements (ΔCH4) at SCLA between 2014 and 2016. Results suggested ΔCH4 contributions of 56-79% from natural gas sources, 7-31% from landfills, and 4-15% from transportation sources. The SCLA-specific CH4 emission estimate made using a research grade gridded CH4 emission inventory suggested contributions of 47% from natural gas sources and 50% from landfills. Subsequent airborne measurements determined that CH4 emissions from two major CH4 sources in SCLA were significantly smaller in magnitude than previously thought. This study highlights the importance of studying the variabilities of CH4 emissions across California for policy makers and stakeholders alike.

Attribution of recent increases in atmospheric methane through 3-D inverse modelling

Abstract. The atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate has varied considerably in recent decades. Unexplained renewed growth after 2006 followed 7 years of stagnation and coincided with an isotopic trend toward CH4 more depleted in 13C, suggesting changes in sources and/or sinks. Using surface observations of both CH4 and the relative change of isotopologue ratio (δ13CH4) to constrain a global 3-D chemical transport model (CTM), we have performed a synthesis inversion for source and sink attribution. Our method extends on previous studies by providing monthly and regional attribution of emissions from six different sectors and changes in atmospheric sinks for the extended 2003–2015 period. Regional evaluation of the model CH4 tracer with independent column observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) shows improved performance when using posterior fluxes (R=0.94–0.96, RMSE =8.3–16.5 ppb), relative to prior fluxes (R=0.60–0.92, RMSE =48.6–64.6 ppb). Further independent validation with data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) shows a similar improvement in the posterior fluxes (R=0.87, RMSE =18.8 ppb) compared to the prior fluxes (R=0.69, RMSE =55.9 ppb). Based on these improved posterior fluxes, the inversion results suggest the most likely cause of the renewed methane growth is a post-2007 1.8±0.4 % decrease in mean OH, a 12.9±2.7 % increase in energy sector emissions, mainly from Africa–Middle East and southern Asia–Oceania, and a 2.6±1.8 % increase in wetland emissions, mainly from northern Eurasia. The posterior wetland flux increases are in general agreement with bottom-up estimates, but the energy sector growth is greater than estimated by bottom-up methods. The model results are consistent across a range of sensitivity analyses. When forced to assume a constant (annually repeating) OH distribution, the inversion requires a greater increase in energy sector (13.6±2.7 %) and wetland (3.6±1.8 %) emissions and an 11.5±3.8 % decrease in biomass burning emissions. Assuming no prior trend in sources and sinks slightly reduces the posterior growth rate in energy sector and wetland emissions and further increases the magnitude of the negative OH trend. We find that possible tropospheric Cl variations do not influence δ13CH4 and CH4 trends, although we suggest further work on Cl variability is required to fully diagnose this contribution. While the study provides quantitative insight into possible emissions variations which may explain the observed trends, uncertainty in prior source and sink estimates and a paucity of δ13CH4 observations limit the robustness of the posterior estimates.

Reduced biomass burning emissions reconcile conflicting estimates of the post-2006 atmospheric methane budget

Several viable but conflicting explanations have been proposed to explain the recent ~8 p.p.b. per year increase in atmospheric methane after 2006, equivalent to net emissions increase of ~25 Tg CH4 per year. A concurrent increase in atmospheric ethane implicates a fossil source; a concurrent decrease in the heavy isotope content of methane points toward a biogenic source, while other studies propose a decrease in the chemical sink (OH). Here we show that biomass burning emissions of methane decreased by 3.7 (±1.4) Tg CH4 per year from the 2001–2007 to the 2008–2014 time periods using satellite measurements of CO and CH4, nearly twice the decrease expected from prior estimates. After updating both the total and isotopic budgets for atmospheric methane with these revised biomass burning emissions (and assuming no change to the chemical sink), we find that fossil fuels contribute between 12–19 Tg CH4 per year to the recent atmospheric methane increase, thus reconciling the isotopic- and ethane-based results.

Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Abstract. Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

The recent increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground-based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005

Abstract. Changes of atmospheric methane total columns (CH4) since 2005 have been evaluated using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) solar observations carried out at 10 ground-based sites, affiliated to the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From this, we find an increase of atmospheric methane total columns of 0.31 ± 0.03 % year−1 (2σ level of uncertainty) for the 2005–2014 period. Comparisons with in situ methane measurements at both local and global scales show good agreement. We used the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model tagged simulation, which accounts for the contribution of each emission source and one sink in the total methane, simulated over 2005–2012. After regridding according to NDACC vertical layering using a conservative regridding scheme and smoothing by convolving with respective FTIR seasonal averaging kernels, the GEOS-Chem simulation shows an increase of atmospheric methane total columns of 0.35 ± 0.03 % year−1 between 2005 and 2012, which is in agreement with NDACC measurements over the same time period (0.30 ± 0.04 % year−1, averaged over 10 stations). Analysis of the GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation allows us to quantify the contribution of each tracer to the global methane change since 2005. We find that natural sources such as wetlands and biomass burning contribute to the interannual variability of methane. However, anthropogenic emissions, such as coal mining, and gas and oil transport and exploration, which are mainly emitted in the Northern Hemisphere and act as secondary contributors to the global budget of methane, have played a major role in the increase of atmospheric methane observed since 2005. Based on the GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation, we discuss possible cause(s) for the increase of methane since 2005, which is still unexplained.

Enhanced Methane Emissions during Amazonian Drought by Biomass Burning.

The Amazon is a significant source of atmospheric methane, but little is known about the source response to increasing drought severity and frequency. We investigated satellite observations of atmospheric column-averaged methane for the 2010 drought and subsequent 2011 wet year in the Amazon using an atmospheric inversion scheme. Our analysis indicates an increase in atmospheric methane over the southern Amazon region during the drought, representing an increase in annual emissions relative to the wet year. We attribute the increase to emissions from biomass burning driven by intense drought, combined with carbon monoxide showing seasonal variations corresponding to methane variations. We show that there is probably a strong correspondence between drought and methane emissions in the Amazon.

Methane emissions from oceans, coasts, and freshwater habitats: New perspectives and feedbacks on climate

AbstractMethane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and atmospheric concentrations have risen 2.5 times since the beginning of the Industrial age. While much of this increase is attributed to anthropogenic sources, natural sources, which contribute between 35% and 50% of global methane emissions, are thought to have a role in the atmospheric methane increase, in part due to human influences. Methane emissions from many natural sources are sensitive to climate, and positive feedbacks from climate change and cultural eutrophication may promote increased emissions to the atmosphere. These natural sources include aquatic environments such as wetlands, freshwater lakes, streams and rivers, and estuarine, coastal, and marine systems. Furthermore, there are significant marine sediment stores of methane in the form of clathrates that are vulnerable to mobilization and release to the atmosphere from climate feedbacks, and subsurface thermogenic gas which in exceptional cases may be released following accidents and disasters (North Sea blowout and Deepwater Horizon Spill respectively). Understanding of natural sources, key processes, and controls on emission is continually evolving as new measurement and modeling capabilities develop, and different sources and processes are revealed. This special issue of Limnology and Oceanography gathers together diverse studies on methane production, consumption, and emissions from freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems, and provides a broad view of the current science on methane dynamics of aquatic ecosystems. Here, we provide a general overview of aquatic methane sources, their contribution to the global methane budget, and key uncertainties. We then briefly summarize the contributions to and highlights of this special issue.

Contribution of oil and natural gas production to renewed increase in atmospheric methane (2007–2014): top–down estimate from ethane and methane column observations

Abstract. Harmonized time series of column-averaged mole fractions of atmospheric methane and ethane over the period 1999–2014 are derived from solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements at the Zugspitze summit (47° N, 11° E; 2964 m a.s.l.) and at Lauder (45° S, 170° E; 370 m a.s.l.). Long-term trend analysis reveals a consistent renewed methane increase since 2007 of 6.2 [5.6, 6.9] ppb yr−1 (parts-per-billion per year) at the Zugspitze and 6.0 [5.3, 6.7] ppb yr−1 at Lauder (95 % confidence intervals). Several recent studies provide pieces of evidence that the renewed methane increase is most likely driven by two main factors: (i) increased methane emissions from tropical wetlands, followed by (ii) increased thermogenic methane emissions due to growing oil and natural gas production. Here, we quantify the magnitude of the second class of sources, using long-term measurements of atmospheric ethane as a tracer for thermogenic methane emissions. In 2007, after years of weak decline, the Zugspitze ethane time series shows the sudden onset of a significant positive trend (2.3 [1.8, 2.8] × 10−2 ppb yr−1 for 2007–2014), while a negative trend persists at Lauder after 2007 (−0.4 [−0.6, −0.1] × 10−2 ppb yr−1). Zugspitze methane and ethane time series are significantly correlated for the period 2007–2014 and can be assigned to thermogenic methane emissions with an ethane-to-methane ratio (EMR) of 12–19 %. We present optimized emission scenarios for 2007–2014 derived from an atmospheric two-box model. From our trend observations we infer a total ethane emission increase over the period 2007–2014 from oil and natural gas sources of 1–11 Tg yr−1 along with an overall methane emission increase of 24–45 Tg yr−1. Based on these results, the oil and natural gas emission contribution (C) to the renewed methane increase is deduced using three different emission scenarios with dedicated EMR ranges. Reference scenario 1 assumes an oil and gas emission combination with EMR = 7.0–16.2 %, which results in a minimum contribution C > 39 % (given as lower bound of 95 % confidence interval). Beside this most plausible scenario 1, we consider two less realistic limiting cases of pure oil-related emissions (scenario 2 with EMR = 16.2–31.4 %) and pure natural gas sources (scenario 3 with EMR = 4.4–7.0 %), which result in C > 18 % and C > 73 %, respectively. Our results suggest that long-term observations of column-averaged ethane provide a valuable constraint on the source attribution of methane emission changes and provide basic knowledge for developing effective climate change mitigation strategies.