Increased Winter Snowfall Research Articles

Deepened snow in combination with summer warming increases growing season nitrous oxide emissions in dry tundra, but not in wet tundra

Impacts of increased winter snowfall and warmer summer air temperatures on nitrous oxide (N2O) dynamics in arctic tundra are uncertain. Here we evaluate surface N2O dynamics in both wet and dry tundra in West Greenland, subjected to field manipulations with deepened winter snow and summer warming. The potential denitrification activity (PDA) and potential net N2O production (N2Onet) were measured to assess denitrification and N2O consumption potential. The surface N2O fluxes averaged 0.49 ± 0.42 and 2.6 ± 0.84 μg N2O–N m−2 h−1, and total emissions were 212 ± 151 and 114 ± 63 g N2O–N scaled to the entire study area of 0.15 km2, at the dry and wet tundra, respectively. The experimental summer warming, and in combination with deepened snow, significantly increased N2O emissions at the dry tundra, but not at the wet tundra. The deepened snow increased winter soil temperatures and growing season soil N availability (DON, NH4+-N or NO3−-N), but no main effect of deepened snow on N2O fluxes was found at either tundra ecosystem. The mean PDA was 5- and 121-fold higher than the N2Onet at the dry and wet tundra, respectively, suggesting that N2O might be reduced and emitted as dinitrogen (N2). Overall, this study reveals modest but evident surface N2O fluxes from tundra ecosystems in Western Greenland, and suggests that projected increases in winter precipitation and summer air temperatures may increase N2O emissions, particularly at the dry tundra dominating in this region.

Deepened winter snow cover enhances net ecosystem exchange and stabilizes plant community composition and productivity in a temperate grassland.

Global warming has greatly altered winter snowfall patterns, and there is a trend towards increasing winter snow in semi-arid regions in China. Winter snowfall is an important source of water during early spring in these water-limited ecosystems, and it can also affect nutrient supply. However, we know little about how changes in winter snowfall will affect ecosystem productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a 5-year winter snow manipulation experiment in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia. We measured ecosystem carbon flux from 2014 to 2018 and plant biomass and species composition from 2015 to 2018. We found that soil moisture increased under deepened winter snow in early growing season, particularly in deeper soil layers. Deepened snow increased the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and reduced intra- and inter-annual variation in NEE. Deepened snow did not affect aboveground plant biomass (AGB) but significantly increased root biomass. This suggested that the enhanced NEE was allocated to the belowground, which improved water acquisition and thus contributed to greater stability in NEE in deep-snow plots. Interestingly, the AGB of grasses in the control plots declined over time, resulting in a shift towards a forb-dominated system. Similar declines in grass AGB were also observed at three other locations in the region over the same time frame and are attributed to 4years of below-average precipitation during the growing season. By contrast, grass AGB was stabilized under deepened winter snow and plant community composition remained unchanged. Hence, our study demonstrates that increased winter snowfall may stabilize arid grassland systems by reducing resource competition, promoting coexistence between plant functional groups, which ultimately mitigates the impacts of chronic drought during the growing season.

Effects on understory biomass and forage 8–10 years after precommercial thinning of Sitka spruce – western hemlock stands in southeast Alaska

In southeast Alaska, United States, multiple-use forest management objectives include both timber production and wildlife habitat. Following stand-replacing disturbances such as clear-cutting, Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carrière) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) naturally regenerate and competitively dominate resources, excluding understory biomass and biodiversity. Thinning may mitigate the effects of canopy closure and permit understory development, but evidence of the effect on understories 8–10 years after thinning is lacking. We report results 4–5 and 8–10 years after thinning experiments on the Tongass National Forest to demonstrate the effects of precommercial thinning (thinned versus control), stand age (15–25, 25–35, and 35–50 years), and weather on understory dynamics and Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus sitkensis Merriam, 1898) forage availability. Stand density negatively affected understory biomass, whereas temperature and precipitation positively interacted to increase biomass. Thinning had an enduring effect on understories, with biomass at least twice as great in thinned versus unthinned stands through year 10. We identified compositional differences from thinning as stand age class increased. Deer forage responded similarly to biomass, but thinning-induced differences faded with increased winter snowfall scenarios, especially in older stands. This study aids the understanding of stand overstory and understory development following silvicultural treatments in the coastal temperate rain forest of Alaska and suggests management implications and applications for balancing objectives throughout the forest type.

The role of diminishing Arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice (largely externally forced). Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation (dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere), in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model (not model-dependent). Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

A major increase in winter snowfall during the middle Holocene on western Greenland caused by reduced sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

AbstractPrecipitation is predicted to increase in the Arctic as temperature increases and sea ice retreats. Yet the mechanisms controlling precipitation in the Arctic are poorly understood and quantified only by the short, sparse instrumental record. We use hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) of lipid biomarkers in lake sediments from western Greenland to reconstruct precipitation seasonality and summer temperature during the past 8 kyr. Aquatic biomarker δ2H was 100‰ more negative from 6 to 4 ka than during the early and late Holocene, which we interpret to reflect increased winter snowfall. The middle Holocene also had high summer air temperature, decreased early winter sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, and a strong, warm West Greenland Current. These results corroborate model predictions of winter snowfall increases caused by sea ice retreat and furthermore suggest that warm currents advecting more heat into the polar seas may enhance Arctic evaporation and snowfall.

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades.

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21years. We additionally used long-term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21-year period, despite more than 1°C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05-0.2days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species - especially for early-flowering species - while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later-flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species' phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.

Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

Abstract. To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

Climate and vegetation history from a 14,000-year peatland record, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Analysis of pollen, spores, macrofossils, and lithology of an AMS 14C-dated core from a subarctic fen on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska reveals changes in vegetation and climate beginning 14,200 cal yr BP. Betula expansion and contraction of herb tundra vegetation characterize the Younger Dryas on the Kenai, suggesting increased winter snowfall concurrent with cool, sunny summers. Remarkable Polypodiaceae (fern) abundance between 11,500 and 8500 cal yr BP implies a significant change in climate. Enhanced peat preservation and the occurrence of wet meadow species suggest high moisture from 11,500 to 10,700 cal yr BP, in contrast to drier conditions in southeastern Alaska; this pattern may indicate an intensification and repositioning of the Aleutian Low (AL). Drier conditions on the Kenai Peninsula from 10,700 to 8500 cal yr BP may signify a weaker AL, but elevated fern abundance may have been sustained by high seasonality with substantial snowfall and enhanced glacial melt. Decreased insolation-induced seasonality resulted in climatic cooling after 8500 cal yr BP, with increased humidity from 8000 to 5000 cal yr BP. A dry interval punctuated by volcanic activity occurred between 5000 and 3500 cal yr BP, followed by cool, moist climate, coincident with Neoglaciation. Tsuga mertensiana expanded after ~ 1500 cal yr BP in response to the shift to cooler conditions.

The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate

Global climate models predict that terrestrial northern high-latitude snow conditions will change substantially over the twenty-first century. Results from a Community Climate System Model simulation of twentieth and twenty-first (SRES A1B scenario) century climate show increased winter snowfall (+10–40%), altered maximum snow depth (−5 ± 6 cm), and a shortened snow-season (−14 ± 7 days in spring, +20 ± 9 days in autumn). By conducting a series of prescribed snow experiments with the Community Land Model, we isolate how trends in snowfall, snow depth, and snow-season length affect soil temperature trends. Increasing snowfall, by countering the snowpack-shallowing influence of warmer winters and shorter snow seasons, is effectively a soil warming agent, accounting for 10–30% of total soil warming at 1 m depth and ~16% of the simulated twenty-first century decline in near-surface permafrost extent. A shortening snow season enhances soil warming due to increased solar absorption whereas a shallowing snowpack mitigates soil warming due to weaker winter insulation from cold atmospheric air. Snowpack deepening has comparatively less impact due to saturation of snow insulative capacity at deeper snow depths. Snow depth and snow-season length trends tend to be positively related, but their effects on soil temperature are opposing. Consequently, on the century timescale the net change in snow state can either amplify or mitigate soil warming. Snow state changes explain less than 25% of total soil temperature change by 2100. However, for the latter half of twentieth century, snow state variations account for as much as 50–100% of total soil temperature variations.

A latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacial history and paleoclimate reconstruction at Three Sisters and Broken Top Volcanoes, Oregon, U.S.A.

At least three sets of moraines mark distinct glacial stands since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in the Three Sisters region of the Oregon Cascade Range. The oldest stand predates 8.1 ka (defined here as post-LGM), followed by a second between ∼ 2 and 8 ka (Neoglacial) and a third from the Little Ice Age (LIA) advance of the last 300 years. The post-LGM equilibrium line altitudes were 260 ± 100 m lower than that of modern glaciers, requiring 23 ± 9% increased winter snowfall and 1.4 ± 0.5°C cooler summer temperatures than at present. The LIA advance had equilibrium line altitudes 110 ± 40 m lower than at present, implying 10 ± 4% greater winter snowfall and 0.6 ± 0.2°C cooler summer temperatures.

Late Holocene monsoonal temperate glacier fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau

We established a chronology of monsoonal temperate glacier fluctuations in China during the last two millennia based on radiocarbon ages of fossil wood buried in moraines, lichen-dated moraines and tree ring evidence. The chronology includes data from 16 glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau including the Hengduan Mountains, the central and eastern parts of the Himalaya Mountains, and the eastern Nyainqentanglha Range. Three main periods of glacier advances are identified: around 200–600 AD, 800–1150 AD, and 1400–1920 AD. The glacier advance at about 400–600 AD was the most widespread advance in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Basically synchronous glacier advances occurred in the southern Himalayan Mountains during 380–600 AD, 870–1100 AD, 1400–1430 AD and 1550–1850 AD. The glacier advance around 1000 AD also occurred in the central Himalayas. Temperatures in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau calculated from Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) depression were 1.0 °C, 0.7 °C, 0.4 °C and 0.1 °C lower than at present (1989 AD) during the periods of 200–600 AD, 800–1150 AD, 1400–1650 AD, and the 19th century, respectively. On a centennial timescale, temperature changes rather than precipitation changes caused by variations of the south Asian summer monsoon are the controlling factor for glacier fluctuations. The widespread glacier advance during the 19th century was probably partly attributable to the result of increased winter snowfall in the central Himalayas.

A nested modeling study of elevation‐dependent climate change signals in California induced by increased atmospheric CO2

Dynamically downscaled climate change signals due to increased atmospheric CO2 are investigated for three California basins. The downscaled signals show strong elevation dependence, mainly due to elevated freezing levels in the increased CO2 climate. Below 2.5 km, rainfall increases by over 150% while snowfall decreases by 20–40% in the winter. Above 2.5 km, rainfall and snowfall both increase in the winter, as the freezing levels appear mostly below this level. Winter snowmelt increases in all elevations due to warmer temperatures in the increased CO2 climate. Reduced snowfall and enhanced snowmelt during the winter decreases snowmelt‐driven spring runoff below the 2.5 km level, where the peak snowmelt occurs one month earlier in the increased CO2 climate. Above 2.5km, increased winter snowfall maintains snowmelt‐driven runoff through most of the warm season. The altered hydrologic characteristics in the increased CO2 climate affect the diurnal temperature variation mainly via snow‐albedo‐soil moisture feedback.

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.

Climatic Warming, Glaciers and Sea Level

The modern concensus outside of the glaciological community is that “greenhouse” gases, released by human activity, will cause an unprecedented temperature rise over the next 100 years and thereby cause a socially-threatening rise of sea level. With respect to ice the concept is simple: warmer means less. The relationship between glaciers and climate is much more complex than this. Warmer also means more vapour transport and there is ample evidence from both theory and ice-core data that snow accumulation rates in both Greenland and Antarctica were lower during the last glacial period. The problem is whether the increased accumulation rates will be exceeded by increased melting of ice in the ablation areas. Antarctica could play a dominant role because of its size and very low temperatures. Only a small percent of Antarctica will increase its meltwater run-off into the ocean. Furthermore, its dynamic response time is so large that the calving rate will not change over a 200-year period. Most of the increased melt will be absorbed in the firn and the question is how much the snow accumulation rate will increase over the major part of the continent. In the northern hemisphere one has to consider the way in which the warming will manifest itself seasonally. Most of the “forecasts” indicate that most of the warming will occur in the winter rather than the summer. In this case one has to consider the balance between greatly increased winter snowfall rates and only slightly increased summer melt rates. In this respect a review of the snow accumulation and ice melt rates from different glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Islands is pertinent. Over the past 20 to 30 years we see no sign of a trend of either side of the balance equation (accumulation, melt). Is this the effect of high noise levels or is there simply no trend? Finally, we review the ground-ice potential in terms of sea-level change. Ground ice may not form a large part of the world's ice reserves but it covers a large area. Both increased snowfall rates in winter, and summer warming will move to increase the thickness of the active layer. This will result in run-off to the oceans. Global circulation models might be modified to determine a “best guess” of future sea-level change. To do this they must incorporate all of the parameters considered in this paper.

Climatic Warming, Glaciers and Sea Level

The modern concensus outside of the glaciological community is that “greenhouse” gases, released by human activity, will cause an unprecedented temperature rise over the next 100 years and thereby cause a socially-threatening rise of sea level. With respect to ice the concept is simple: warmer means less. The relationship between glaciers and climate is much more complex than this. Warmer also means more vapour transport and there is ample evidence from both theory and ice-core data that snow accumulation rates in both Greenland and Antarctica were lower during the last glacial period. The problem is whether the increased accumulation rates will be exceeded by increased melting of ice in the ablation areas. Antarctica could play a dominant role because of its size and very low temperatures. Only a small percent of Antarctica will increase its meltwater run-off into the ocean. Furthermore, its dynamic response time is so large that the calving rate will not change over a 200-year period. Most of the increased melt will be absorbed in the firn and the question is how much the snow accumulation rate will increase over the major part of the continent.In the northern hemisphere one has to consider the way in which the warming will manifest itself seasonally. Most of the “forecasts” indicate that most of the warming will occur in the winter rather than the summer. In this case one has to consider the balance between greatly increased winter snowfall rates and only slightly increased summer melt rates. In this respect a review of the snow accumulation and ice melt rates from different glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Islands is pertinent. Over the past 20 to 30 years we see no sign of a trend of either side of the balance equation (accumulation, melt). Is this the effect of high noise levels or is there simply no trend?Finally, we review the ground-ice potential in terms of sea-level change. Ground ice may not form a large part of the world's ice reserves but it covers a large area. Both increased snowfall rates in winter, and summer warming will move to increase the thickness of the active layer. This will result in run-off to the oceans.Global circulation models might be modified to determine a “best guess” of future sea-level change. To do this they must incorporate all of the parameters considered in this paper.