Increased Terrorist Activity Research Articles

The Tendency of Terrorist Organizations to Explosive Attacks: An Institutional Theory Perspective.

Focusing on the tendency of terrorist organizations to explosive attack, this article applied the institutional theory as the basis to explain the inherent logic of attack type similarity from the perspective of mimetic, coercive, and normative isomorphism. Subsequently, the study conducted an empirical analysis of the data onto 1825 terrorist organizations recorded in the Global Terrorism Database with the logistic regression method. The results show that: (1) Terrorist organizations will learn from pre-existing terrorist organizations' experiences, and mimetic isomorphism will promote explosive tendency; (2) Due to the normative isomorphism effect, terrorist groups' tendency to explosive attacks is weakened by their increased duration; (3) If terrorist organizations are hostile to a strong government, coercive isomorphism positively moderates the negative effects of increasing duration. The study suggests that counter-terrorism approaches such as destroying the learnable experience of attacks, addressing the root causes of terrorism, and maintaining a strong government may be helpful in stopping increasing terrorist activities, which is essential for reducing terrorist organizations' vivosphere, blocking the inter-flow and imitation between terrorist organizations, and ultimately interrupting the terrorist propagation chain.

Computational Robotics: An Alternative Approach for Predicting Terrorist Networks

Increasing terrorist activities globally have attracted the attention of many researchers, policy makers and security agencies towards counterterrorism. The clandestine nature of terrorist networks have made them difficult for detection. Existing works have failed to explore computational characterization to design an efficient threat-mining surveillance system. In this paper, a computationally-aware surveillance robot that auto-generates threat information, and transmit same to the cloud-analytics engine is developed. The system offers hidden intelligence to security agencies without any form of interception by terrorist elements. A miniaturized surveillance robot with Hidden Markov Model (MSRHMM) for terrorist computational dissection is then derived. Also, the computational framework for MERHMM is discussed while showing the adjacency matrix of terrorist network as a determinant factor for its operation. The model indicates that the terrorist network have a property of symmetric adjacency matrix while the social network have both asymmetric and symmetric adjacency matrix. Similarly, the characteristic determinant of adjacency matrix as an important operator for terrorist network is computed to be -1 while that of a symmetric and an asymmetric in social network is 0 and 1 respectively. In conclusion, it was observed that the unique properties of terrorist networks such as symmetric and idempotent property conferred a special protection for the terrorist network resilience. Computational robotics is shown to have the capability of utilizing the hidden intelligence in attack prediction of terrorist elements. This concept is expected to contribute in national security challenges, defense and military intelligence.

Peroxide Based Organic Explosives

In recent years progressively increasing terrorist activities, which use homemade explosives; such as acetone peroxide and other cyclic organic peroxides have led to worldwide awareness by security and defense agencies. Then the development of methodologies for the detection of cyclic organic peroxides have become an urgent need. Until quite recently, most of the current technology in use for trace detection of explosives had been unable to detect these energetic compounds. Differences in physical properties between cyclic organic peroxides is the main barrier for the development of a general method for analysis and detection of the peroxide explosives. In this short review, the most relevant contributions related to preparation, characterization and detection of the most important cyclic organic peroxides have been presented. It also includes few recent investigations about the toxicity and metabolism of some peroxide explosives.

Fragile States, Technological Capacity, and Increased Terrorist Activity

Research on terrorism disagrees on whether terrorist activity is at its highest in collapsed states, which are more hospitable to such activities, or whether terrorism increases in more capable states. We revisit this discussion by theorizing an interactive relationship: terrorists prefer to operate in politically-hospitable states, but their attack frequency within these states increases with greater technological capacity, which allows them to expand their military, recruitment, and financing operations. We analyze 27,018 terrorist incidents using regression and causal inference models, conduct a case study, and find robust support for this interactive logic. Our conclusions outline implications for policy and academic work.

Determining Terrorism Proxies for the Relationship With Tourism Demand: A Global View

This study examines the determinants of the relationship between terrorism and tourism, by testing different proxies to assess both the frequency and the severity of terrorist activity. The methodological approach includes implementing principal component analysis into four different sets of possible proxies for terrorism in order to examine their relationship with international tourism arrivals over the period 1998–2018. The dataset includes world tourist flows and terrorist incidents anywhere in the world in order to avoid regional effects. The empirical results show that all candidate proxies exhibit a long-run, negative relationship with tourism, while there is also an impact of tourism on terrorism, with conflicting directions between the short run and the long run. The findings suggest that increased terrorist activity may cause destination substitution in the short run but will have adverse effects in the long run. In addition, authorities should be prepared for a rise in terrorist incidents during periods with increased tourist flows. Finally, research on terrorism should take into account the qualitative characteristics of terrorist activities.

Close-in blast resistance of large-scale auxetic re-entrant honeycomb sandwich panels

The protection of critical infrastructure, including government buildings, airports, religious buildings, military buildings and military vehicles, which are at risk to blast loads, has become important due to increasing terrorist activities in recent years. Sacrificial cladding systems based on negative Poisson’s ratio core topologies have recently received more attention as a protective technology due to its excellent energy absorption capability. In this study, field blast tests were performed on metallic re-entrant honeycomb-cored sacrificial cladding systems as protective structures for steel plate structures. This study focused on the near-field blast loading conditions where liquid Nitromethane (NM) spherical charges were detonated in close proximity to the main structure. Two 6 mm thick mild steel plates and two steel plates protected with re-entrant honeycomb-cored sacrificial cladding systems were among the specimens tested. The proposed auxetic cladding system was fabricated from aluminium sheets using a novel in-house built folding machine. Numerical simulations were conducted utilising LS-DYNA software and the Blast Impact Impulse Model (BIIM). The results obtained from the numerical simulations are in good agreement with the experimental results. It was found that the deformation pattern of the sacrificial auxetic cladding system varies with the intensity of the blast loading, and there is a limit at which the proposed protective system ceases to effectively absorb the applied blast loading. The variation of negative Poisson’s ratio of the system with blast loading was studied. It was found that the auxetic cladding system could become a solid projectile leading to damage amplification for very close-range blast loads due to rapid densification of the auxetic core. The proposed cladding systems with narrow re-entrant angles performed well under blast loads due to relatively low stiffness of the panels. Finally, the optimisation study was performed for the protective system. Overall, the experimental and numerical results assure that auxetic-based cladding systems are suitable for applications requiring blast protection such as armoured vehicles and critical physical infrastructure but need to be carefully designed for the given blast threat to prevent overloading of the protected structures.

Prototyping an Automated Video Surveillance System Using FPGAs

Because of increasing terrorist activities, the resolution of video cameras and the number of cameras deployed for surveillance are increasing exponentially – producing huge amount of video data. Manual analysis of this large volume of video data by human operators for crime scene and forensic analysis is neither reliable nor scalable. This has generated enormous interest in research activities related to automation of video surveillance systems which allows real-time automatic extraction and analysis of information from live incoming video streams and enables automatic detection and tracking of targets without human intervention. To meet the real-time requirements of automated video surveillance systems, very different technologies and design methodologies have been used in literature. These range from use of General Purpose Processors (GPPs) or special purpose Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) or Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) or Applications Specific Instruction Set Processors (ASIPs) or even programmable logic devices like Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). FPGAs provide real-time performance that is hard to achieve with GPPs/DSPs, limit the extensive design work, time, and cost required for ASICs, and allow algorithmic changes in later stages of system development. Due to these features FPGAs are being increasingly used for prototyping automated video surveillance system quickly. In this paper we present the top level description of a complete automated video surveillance system along with the elaboration of different challenges/issues involved in its design and implementation, a comparative analysis of design methodologies and existing FPGA platforms, complete design flow for prototyping the FPGA-based automated video surveillance system, and details of various primary input/output interfaces required for designing smart automated video surveillance systems for future.

Counterterrorist Legislation and Subsequent Terrorism: Does it Work?

Over the past four decades, and especially in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, many countries around the world have passed various types of counterterrorist legislation. It remains unclear, however, whether such laws are effective in achieving their most important declared goal: reducing terrorist activities. Some scholars believe that counterterrorist legislation should indeed reduce terrorist activities through protecting people and infrastructure, disrupting terrorist plots, and deterring some potential terrorists. Others, however, remain doubtful, suggesting that such legislation often serves merely as lip service or, worse, actually contributes to increasing terrorist activities. Using a newly assembled database on national-level counterterrorist legislation, I conduct a cross-national time-series analysis of legislation and subsequent terrorism for the years 1981–2009. The analyses demonstrate a discrepancy between the short- and long-term effects of national-level counterterrorist legislation. In the short term, laws have no effect on the number of terrorist attacks and their severity. In the long term, however, the cumulative effects of most legislation are counterproductive and harmful, although some types of legislation do produce beneficial results and are associated with a reduction in future attacks.

Dirty Hands

Existing research suggests that the use of harsh repression can exacerbate the incidence and duration of terrorism. Micro- and macro-level analyses have shown that coercive government responses to terrorism can radicalize sympathizers, increase recruitment, and undermine community support for counterterrorism policies, leading to backlash and increased terrorist activity. Focusing on torture techniques, this article aims to establish mechanisms implicit in the backlash hypothesis. These arguments imply that information about government transgressions is available to potential group sympathizers, but have not examined whether and how variation in the visibility of different torture techniques affects the likelihood of backlash. Scarring torture, a technique that is both more visible and less plausibly deniable than other forms of torture, is expected to produce higher volumes of terrorism. Using disaggregated data on allegations of torture from the Ill-Treatment and Torture project for 1995 to 2005, the analysis shows that scarring torture is consistently associated with increases in terrorism, whereas stealth torture has no statistically discernable effect on terrorism.

Causes and Incentives for Terrorism in Pakistan

This study offers fresh empirical insights into the causes of terrorism in Pakistan. The authors present a novel strategy for hypothesis building in conflict studies, and explore the importance of the explanatory variables within the time frame of the analysis. The hypothesized relationships are tested using pooled cross-section time series data from five regions of Pakistan (the federally controlled area and four provinces from 1980 to 2010) using fixed effect negative binomial regression. The results indicate that public education expenditures, law & order expenditures, ethnic diversity, urban population, the presence of domestic military operations, and U.S. military aid to Pakistan all result in increased terrorist activity in Pakistan. This study recommends that ethnic diversity and multilingualism be respected in education in Pakistan, that the educational curriculum be cleansed of systemic incendiary language and bigotry, that law enforcement agencies be freed of political control, and that strategic partnership with the United States be reassessed considering the core long-term interests of Pakistan.

Opening Yourself Up

Information transparency is frequently heralded as a positive regime feature. However, does information transparency produce negative side effects such as increased terrorist activity? We theorize that freer transmission of information creates opportunities for radical dissidents to employ political violence to draw attention to their agendas. We build a theoretical argument connecting external (international) transparency to increases in transnational terrorism, and internal (domestic) transparency to increases in domestic terrorism. We find empirical support for our theory by analyzing the effects of measures of transparency on counts of terrorist attacks in as many as 144 countries for time periods as long as 1970 to 2006.

The effects of Israeli use of coercive and conciliatory tactics on Palestinian's use of terrorist tactics: 2000–2006

The study investigated the effects of Israel's use of offensive, defensive and conciliatory tactics on Palestinian's use of terrorist tactics. Proportional hazard modeling assessed the effects of Israeli tactics on total terrorist activity by Palestinians, suicidal and non-suicidal acts of terror, and acts of terror attributed to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and factions affiliated with Fatah. Palestinian acts of terror decreased following the construction of the separation fence, but increased during Operation Defensive Shield (ODS). However, the effects of various Israeli tactics differed for the different groups. Targeted assassinations increased Hamas terrorist activity, increased PIJ activity only if highly senior persons were targeted, and had no immediate effect on terrorist activity by Fatah-affiliated factions. ODS increased terrorist activity by Fatah-affiliated factions but had no effect on Hamas and PIJ. Several conciliatory measures were followed by periods of no terrorist activity at all by Hamas and Fatah-affiliated factions. The findings highlight the importance of considering the responses of different terrorist groups when evaluating effects of counterterrorist tactics.

BOKO HARAM AND JIHAD IN NIGERIA

Nigeria has recently been confronted with increased terrorist activity by a group called Boko Haram. This group has been able to survive counterterrorist measures by the Nigerian government and has increased its attacks on targets inside and outside its traditional area of operation. On Christmas 2011, at least 25 churchgoers were killed. Earlier, Boko Haram hit the headquarters of the United Nations in Abuja, Nigeria’s federal capital, in a suicide attack, leaving at least 23 people killed and more than 80 injured. This article will look into Boko Haram, its ideology, its methods, and its international connections. In order to determine whether or not the group is driven by religious motives, the authors consider Boko Haram’s use of religion as an ideology, as an instrument for recruitment, as a legitimation of extreme violence and as a criterion for the selection of targets. These indicators will be examined in order to learn more about the character of Boko Haram, about its ideology, its methods, and its international connections. The authors conclude that Boko Haram is indeed primarily driven by religious motives while its members are motivated by a Jihadist version of Islam. They view themselves as believers of the only true interpretation of the Islamic faith. Their aim is to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria on the basis of the Sharia.

Bioterrorism : A public health perspective

The intentional release or threat of release of biologic agents (i.e. viruses, bacteria, fungi or their toxins) in order to cause disease or death among human population or food crops and livestock to terrorize a civilian population or manipulate the government in the present scenario of increased terrorist activity has become a real possibility. The most important step in the event of a bioterrorist attack is the identification of the event. This can be achieved by generating awareness, having high degree of suspicion and having a good surveillance system to assist quick detection. Bioterrorist attacks could be covert or announced and caused by virtually any pathogenic microorganism. Bioterrorist agents of major concern have been categorized as A, B and C based on the priority of the agents to pose a risk to the national security and the ease with which they can be disseminated. The five phases of activities in dealing with a bioterrorist attack are preparedness phase, early warning phase, notification phase, response phase and recovery phase. A bioterrorism attack in a public place is a public health emergency. Early detection and rapid investigation is the key to contain such attacks. The role of public health epidemiologist is critical not only in determining the scope and magnitude of the attack but also in effective implementation of interventions.

Early warning surveillance of drinking water by photoionization/mass spectrometry

Increased terrorist activity is raising concerns about the safety of water supplies. Early warning systems that are accurate and fast are needed to deploy effective strategies for rapid response. A new analyzer based on photoionization (PI) and quadrupole ion trap, time‐of‐flight (QitTof) mass spectrometry (MS) offers high‐speed, high‐throughput screening and molecular identification of chemical weapons threats and other hazardous compounds. A growing number of municipalities and government facilities are adopting this new screening instrumentation to help safeguard public drinking water. This article reviews the strategy being taken by cities such as Phoenix, Ariz., to develop an early warning capability based on the PI/QitTof MS screening technology. The screening technology can detect a wide range of compounds at subacute concentrations with no sample preparation and a sampling cycle time of about 45 s.

A Prayer for Marie: Creating an Effective African Standby Force

On 16 April 1994 in Cyahinda, Rwanda, 3,500 unarmed Tutsi men, women, and children packed into a small Catholic church, and 4,000 more crowded into surrounding church buildings, to escape from the Rwandan army and its death squads. Discovering their whereabouts, the death squads came with guns, machetes, and clubs, surrounded the parish buildings, and attacked the helpless families within. In a methodical and almost leisurely manner, they systematically murdered one day's quota, only to return the following three days to complete the killing. At the end of four days, 5,500 unarmed men, women, and children lay dead. Among them was Marie, a six-year-old girl who had been tortured and raped. She had bled to death after having her legs cut through above the knees with a machete. (1) There were nearly 100,000 Maries in 1994 Rwanda--children who faced an unimaginable death. This horror was repeated time and time again over the course of 13 weeks, when approximately 800,000 people were massacred in Rwanda's genocide. By August 1994, three million Rwandans had been internally displaced, and more than two million had fled to neighboring countries--out of a total pre-war population of approximately seven million. Women and children suffered most from the aftermath of the genocide, with an estimated 47,000 children orphaned, and up to 500,000 women raped. (2) Unimaginably, this occurred as the international community watched with a fixed, if not disinterested eye. After the Rwanda genocide, the United Nations released a report which concluded that a small outside force--perhaps as few as 5,000 soldiers--could have intervened and stopped the slaughter in its early stages. The failure of the United States and the international community to act is one of the most shocking instances of indifference in history. While the Rwanda tragedy is unparalleled with regard to the killers' speed and efficiency, there is nothing new about violence on the African continent. In fact, no region of the world has seen a greater number of foreign or US military interventions in the past decade than Sub-Saharan Africa. Since 1991, US forces have conducted 31 contingency operations in Sub-Saharan Africa alone. (3) In terms of almost every meaningful measurement--the number of countries with internal disputes, the number of UN peacekeeping missions, the number of civilian casualties, the number of displaced civilians, or the monetary cost to the international community--Africa has been the most likely location for the requirement for armed humanitarian intervention over the past ten years. (4) Why Africa Matters to the United States The current US National Security Strategy (NSS) addresses the African paradox. The strategy describes Africa as a land of promise and opportunity, but also as a land beset with disease, war, and desperate poverty. The NSS goes on to say that the current situation in Africa poses a threat to a core value of the United States--preserving human dignity--and to a strategic priority--combating global terror. As a result, the National Security Strategy makes a bold commitment: The United States will work with others for an African continent that lives in liberty, peace, and growing prosperity. That said, Africa remains at the bottom of any list of America's vital interests. Does the evidence justify this low priority? Africa matters far more today to US interests than it did before 11 September 2001, and America's gaze needs to include this vast continent in its present national security landscape. As the campaign against global terrorism unfolds, we find Sub-Saharan Africa clearly among the terrorists' playing fields. Just as the failed state of Afghanistan spawned terrorist camps in the 1990s, so has Africa's plight led to increased terrorist activity. Consider: * Dr. Jakkie Cilliers writes in African Security Review that 2,800 Algerians were trained in Afghanistan, making Algeria the third biggest contributor of foot soldiers to international terrorism after Saudi Arabia and Yemen. …

Paper tigers and video postcards: The rhetorical dimensions of narrative form in ABC news coverage of terrorism

Research into the relationship between terrorism and the media traditionally has treated news media as conduits for the terrorist, and responsible for increased terrorist activity. Rather than assessing how television news benefits terrorists, this study identifies ways that news coverage aids media organizations and incumbent governments. The analysis, based on ABC news coverage of terrorist incidents broadcast between Reagan's 1981 inauguration and the 1986 U.S. bombing of Libya, examines ABC's use of the romantic quest as a narrative frame for terrorist acts. Features characterizing ABC News narratives include: the casting of top government officials as paper tigers, the formation of video postcards of hostages to mobilize viewer emotions, and speculation about the desirability of military intervention. The overarching melodramatic imperative that structures news narratives privileges military responses to foreign adversaries but does not enhance understanding of political crises.