Increasing Model For End-Stage Liver Disease Score Research Articles

Long-term outcome analysis of Y90 radioembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Yttrium-90 (Y90) radioembolization is a catheter-based therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Multiple trials have evaluated the efficacy of Y90 in HCC; however, few have assessed long-term hepatic function. This study aimed to evaluate a clinical real-world experience of Y90 effectiveness and long-term impact on hepatic function. A single-center retrospective chart review was performed for patients with Child-Pugh (CP) class A or B who received Y90 for primary HCC between 2008 and 2016. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and CP scores were calculated on the day of treatment and 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months post-procedure. Of the 134 patients included, the mean age was 60 years old and median overall survival (OS) from date of diagnosis was 28 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 22.21-38.05]. Patients with CP class A (85%) had a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 3 months (95% CI: 2.99-5.55) and median OS of 17 months (95% CI: 9.59-23.10) from date of Y90 treatment compared to a median PFS of 4 months (95% CI: 2.07-8.28) and OS of 8 months (95% CI: 4.60-15.64) for patients with CP class B. MELD scores were significantly higher post-treatment than pre-treatment, with significant recovery at 24 months. No significant differences were seen between cancer stage and OS, while PFS and cancer stage did show difference between cancer stage 1 and 3 with longer median PFS seen in stage 1. While our study supports the literature for OS in Y90-treated patients, we found a shorter PFS in this population. This may reflect the differences between the utilization of RECIST in clinical trials and clinical radiology practice in determining progression. Significant factors associated with OS were age, MELD, CP scores and portal vein thrombosis (PVT). For PFS, CP score and stage at diagnosis were significant. Increasing MELD scores over time likely reflected a combination of radioembolization-induced liver disease, liver decompensation or progression of HCC. The downtrend at 24 months is likely due to long term survivors with significant benefit from therapy with no long-term complications from Y90.

Study of the left ventricle in cirrhosis and correlation with the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score

Background: Recent research has increased amount of evidence for heart disease associated with cirrhosis, which has led to the definition of the entity cirrhotic cardiomyopathy. The present study was conducted with an objective to evaluate the clinical, biochemical, and echocardiographic evaluation of patients presenting with cirrhosis and to find its correlation between the severity of cirrhosis and cardiac dysfunction. Materials and Methods: The present study was a case–control study conducted from July 2021 to September 2022. All the cases were examined using two-dimensional echocardiography, electrocardiogram, and other laboratory parameters. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was calculated for each of the cases. Results: Alcohol ingestion was the most common (76%) etiological factor associated with cirrhosis. There was a significant difference between the QTc interval among cases and controls and among the MELD score group. A significant difference was observed in the left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), interventricular septal thickness (IVST), left atrial diameter, cardiac output (CO), E (Peak velocity flow in early diastole)/A (peak velocity flow in late diastole), E (Peak velocity in early diastole)/e'(passive left ventricular filling during early diastole), and deceleration time among the cases and controls. Conclusion: Based on our results, we conclude that liver cirrhosis cases revealed increased cardiac dysfunction with an increase in the MELD severity, particularly involving left ventricular diastolic dysfunction. Cirrhotic patients presented with increased CO and decreased E/A ratio. With increasing MELD score, there was a significant increase in the LVESD, LVEDD, IVST, and CO and a decreased E/A ratio.

The Significance of Serum Tumor Markers CEA, Ca 19-9, Ca 125, Ca 15-3, and AFP in Patients Scheduled for Orthotopic Liver Transplantation: Do Elevated Levels Really Mean Malignancy?

Preparation of the patients for liver transplantation is a meticulous process and includes evaluation of tumor markers to rule out occult malignancy. The present study evaluated the significance of serum tumor markers in patients bound for liver transplantation due to viral and other etiologies of liver failure. Three hundred eighty-one patients who underwent liver transplantation were included in the study. Demographic data, model for end stage liver disease (MELD) scores, and serum tumor marker levels were prospectively collected. AFP levels were significantly higher in viral etiologies when compared to other etiologies (p < 0.05). Ca 19-9 was significantly higher in viral etiologies (p < 0.05). Among the viral etiologies, HCV-related liver failure had higher carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (Ca 19-9) levels (p < 0.05). A correlation was found between increasing MELD scores and serum levels of tumor markers (p < 0.05). Tumor markers such as AFP, CEA, Ca 125, and Ca 19-9 can be elevated in end stage liver disease. Their levels vary according to etiology and severity of disease. The diagnostic capabilities of these markers are reduced in end stage liver disease setting but they contribute to the evaluation of the pathophysiology of chronic liver disease. Transplantation can be performed safely in cases with high tumor marker levels provided that any occult malignancy is ruled out by means of imaging and endoscopic techniques. Tumor markers can guide the physician in determining the severity of liver cirrhosis, and further studies are needed to validate such a relationship.

Model for end-stage liver disease score predicts complications after liver transplantation.

Increased model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score measured in the early postoperative course is associated with one-year mortality and graft loss. However, the correlation with postoperative complications has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between postoperative MELD score and subsequent complications. Adult liver transplant recipients transplanted from January 2011 until December 2016 were included. MELD score days 1-5 were correlated with complications day 6-30, subdivided into type and severity according to Clavien-Dindo classification. We included 246 adult liver transplant recipients. Between days 6 and 30, 671 complications occurred in 201 of the patients (82%) corresponding to 64% of all postoperative complications in the whole postoperative period (days 0-30). In multivariate analyses adjusted for recipient gender and age, preoperative MELD score, and Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index, postoperative MELD score was significantly associated with having one or more complications, any type of complication except cardiovascular and renal complications, and complication severity. Postoperative MELD score days 1-5 were associated with complications arising in the subsequent period 6-30 days after transplantation. An increased MELD score should heighten the clinician's awareness of a possible complication.

Aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores are associated with morbidity and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair among patients with liver dysfunction

BackgroundLiver cirrhosis dramatically increases morbidity and mortality after open surgical procedures and is often a contraindication to open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms. However, limited data have evaluated the effect of liver disease on outcomes after endovascular repair of aortic aneurysms. MethodsThe National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to evaluate all nonemergent endovascular aneurysm repairs (EVARs) from 2005 to 2016. The aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index is a sensitive, noninvasive screening tool used to screen for liver disease and was calculated for all patients. A value >0.5 was used to identify those with significant liver fibrosis. Demographics, comorbidities, and 30-day outcomes were then compared between patients with and patients without fibrosis. Additional analysis was then completed to assess the effect of increasing Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score on 30-day outcomes. Multivariable regression was used to account for differences in baseline factors. ResultsEVAR was performed on 18,484 patients including 2286 with liver fibrosis and 16,198 without. Patients with liver fibrosis had an increased 30-day mortality (1.5% vs 2.4%; P < .01) and significantly higher rates of major morbidities including return to the operating room, pulmonary complications, transfusion, and discharge other than home. After multivariable analysis, patients with liver fibrosis had a significant increase in 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.1), return to the operating room (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8), pulmonary complications (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.0), transfusion (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.5-2.0), and discharge other than home (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8). In further analysis, mortality also increased in a stepwise fashion with increasing MELD score (MELD <10, 1.3%; MELD 10-15, 2.3%; MELD >15, 4.7%; P < .01), as did major complications (MELD <10, 7%; MELD 10-15, 11%; MELD >15, 15%; P < .01). These increases persisted in adjusted analysis. ConclusionsLiver fibrosis significantly increases mortality and major morbidity after EVAR. The aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index and MELD score should be used for preoperative risk stratification. Moreover, current 30-day morbidity and mortality rates among patients with MELD scores >10 exceed 5%, which is higher than the annual rupture risk for aneurysms <6 cm. Therefore, an increased size threshold of >6 cm may be warranted before EVAR in patients with liver fibrosis.

Biomarkers of Macrophage Activation and Immune Danger Signals Predict Clinical Outcomes in Alcoholic Hepatitis.

Although mortality due to acute alcoholic hepatitis (AH) correlates with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, biomarkers are critically needed to manage this disease. Increases in inflammatory markers and macrophage activation are associated with acute AH and could be potential biomarkers of clinical events and/or mortality. We enrolled 89 clinically diagnosed AH patients in four US academic medical centers. Plasma from AH patients had a significant increase in gut microbial translocation indicators (endotoxin, bacterial 16S ribosomal DNA) and host response indicators (soluble cluster of differentiation 14 [sCD14] and lipopolysaccharide binding protein [LBP]) compared to controls. Patient MELD score and Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis score (GAHS) correlated with endotoxin levels. AH patients also had a significant increase in high mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1), a sterile danger signal molecule, and osteopontin (OPN), a multifunctional phosphoprotein involved in neutrophil activation, compared to controls. Increased levels of OPN positively correlated with increasing MELD score, GAHS, and LBP levels. Consistent with these results, AH patients had significantly increased circulating levels of macrophage activation (sCD163 and sCD206) markers compared to healthy controls, and sCD163 and sCD206 significantly and positively correlated with OPN, HMGB1, and LBP levels as well as with MELD score and GAHS. These findings indicate a connection between microbial translocation, immune cell activation, and AH severity. Plasma sCD14, OPN, sCD163, and sCD206 levels were significantly higher in nonsurvivors than survivors. In multivariate regression models, we identified sCD14, sCD163, and OPN as independent predictors of 90-day mortality, infection, and organ failure development, respectively. Conclusion: Our study suggests that sCD14, LBP, OPN, sCD163, and sCD206 are biomarkers to indicate severity and predict clinical outcomes in AH.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Independently Predicts Mortality in Cardiac Surgery

Although liver disease increases surgical risk, it is not considered in The Society for Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk calculator. This study assessed the impact of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) on outcomes after cardiac surgical procedures and the additional predictive value of MELD in the STS risk model. Deidentified records of 21,272 patients were extracted from a regional STS database. Inclusion criteria were any cardiac operation with a risk score available (2011-2016). Exclusion criteria included missing MELD (n= 2,895) or preoperative anticoagulation (n= 144). Patients were stratified into three categories, MELD < 9 (low), MELD 9 to 15 (moderate), and MELD > 15 (high). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression assessed risk-adjusted associations between MELD and operative outcomes. Increasing MELD scores were associated with greater comorbid disease, mitral operation, prior cardiac operation, and higher STS-predicted risk of mortality (1.1%, 2.3%, and 6.0% by MELD category; p < 0.0001). The operative mortality rate increased with increasing MELD score (1.6%, 3.9%, and 8.4%; p < 0.0001). By logistic regression MELD score was an independent predictor of operative mortality (odds ratio, 1.03 per MELD score point; p < 0.0001) as were the components total bilirubin (odds ratio, 1.22 per mg/dL; p= 0.002) and international normalized ratio (odds ratio, 1.40 per unit; p < 0.0001). Finally, MELD score was independently associated with STS major morbidity and the component complications renal failure and stroke. Increasing MELD score, international normalized ratio, and bilirubin all independently increase risk of operative mortality. Because high rates of missing data currently limit utilization of MELD, efforts to simplify and improve data collection would help improve future risk models.

On-Treatment Improvement of MELD Score Reduces Death and Hepatic Events in Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

Antiviral treatment modifies the natural history of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis as reflected by improving Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score over time. We evaluated the impact of on-treatment change of MELD score on clinical outcomes in patients with CHB-related cirrhosis. Cirrhotic CHB patients who received entecavir and/or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for at least 6 months in Hong Kong between 2005 and 2016 were identified. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatic events including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, and liver transplantation. We identified 1743 cirrhotic CHB patients. Their mean MELD score decreased from 12.3 ± 5.5 at baseline to 11.0 ± 4.7 at month 6. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.9 (1.9-6.0) years, 290 (16.6%) patients died; 201 (11.5%) developed HCC. Among 1140 patients without prior hepatic events, 150 (13.2%) developed hepatic events. Among 464 patients with baseline MELD score ≥15, the 6-year cumulative mortality was 72.8, 36.7, and 23.1% for unchanged or increased MELD score, 1-5 point improvement in MELD score, and >5 point improvement in MELD score at month 6, respectively (log-rank test, P < 0.001); the corresponding 6-year cumulative incidence of hepatic events was 52.7, 30.5, and 23.9% in the three subgroups (Gray's test, P = 0.004). Patients with MELD score <15 at month 6 had lower risk of mortality and hepatic events (all P < 0.001). On-treatment improvement of MELD score correlates with reduced risk of mortality and hepatic events in cirrhotic CHB patients.

Liver Disease as a Predictor of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation.

BackgroundImpact of liver disease on development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. The purpose of the study was to evaluate prevalence of AF in the setting of liver disease and whether increasing severity of liver disease, using Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD), is independently associated with increased risk of AF.Methods and ResultsRetrospective data analysis of 1727 patients with liver disease evaluated for liver transplantation between 2006 and 2015 was performed, and patient characteristics were analyzed from billing codes and review of medical records. Multivariable time‐dependent Cox proportional hazards model was performed to determine effect of increasing MELD score on risk of developing AF. Prevalence of AF was 11.2%. Incidence of AF at median follow‐up time of 1.04 years was 8.5%. Both prevalence and incidence of AF increased with increasing MELD scores. Prevalence of AF was 3.7%, 6.4%, 16.7%, and 20.2% corresponding with MELD quartiles 1 to 10, 11 to 20, 21 to 30, and >30, respectively. Compared with patients with MELD quartile 1 to 10, patients with MELD quartile of 11 to 20 had hazard ratio of 2.73 (confidence interval, 1.47–5.07), those in the MELD quartile of 21 to 30 had a hazard ratio of 5.17 (confidence interval, 2.65–10.09), and those with MELD values >30 had hazard ratio of 9.33 (confidence interval, 3.93–22.14) for development of new‐onset AF. Other significant variables associated with new‐onset AF were age, sleep apnea, valvular heart disease, hemodynamic instability, and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction <50% (hazard ratio, of 1.06, 2.17, 3.21, 2.00, and 2.44, respectively).ConclusionsPrevalence and incidence of AF in patients with liver disease is high. Severity of liver disease, as measured by MELD, is an important predictor of new‐onset AF. This novel finding suggests an interaction between inflammatory and neurohormonal changes in liver disease and pathogenesis of AF.

Hospital Readmissions in Patients with Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review.

Hospital readmission is a significant problem for patients with complex chronic illnesses such as liver cirrhosis. We aimed to describe the range of readmission risk in patients with cirrhosis and the impact of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. We conducted a systematic review of studies identified in Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, Google Scholar, and ClinicalTrials.gov from 2000 to May 2017. We examined studies that reported early readmissions (up to 90days) in patients with cirrhosis. Studies were excluded if they did not examine the association between readmission and at least 1 variable or intervention. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study design, setting, population, interventions, comparisons, and detailed information on readmissions. Of the 1363 records reviewed, 26 studies met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Of these studies, 21 were retrospective, and there was significant variation in the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The pooled estimate of 30-day readmissions was 26%(95% confidence interval [CI], 22%-30%). Few studies examined readmission preventability or the relationship between readmissions and social determinants of health. Reasons for readmission were highly variable. An increased MELD score was associated with readmissions in most studies. Readmission was associated with increased mortality. Hospital readmissions frequently occur in patients with cirrhosis and are associated with liver disease severity. The impact of functional and social factors on readmissions is unclear.

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) as a predictor of short-term mortality in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: A single-centre observational study.

BackgroundAutomated laboratory-based prediction models may support clinical decisions in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections (BSIs), which carry a particularly high mortality. Small studies indicated that the laboratory-based Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is a risk factor for mortality in critically ill patients with infections. For S. aureus BSIs, we therefore aimed to assess a potential association of the MELD score with mortality.MethodsIn this single-centre observational study, all consecutive patients with a first episode of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus BSI occurring between 2001 and 2013 were eligible. Relevant patient data were retrieved from our prospective in-house BSI database. We assessed the association of the MELD score at day of BSI onset (range ± two days) with 30-day all-cause mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regression analysis.Results561 patients were included in the final analysis. The MELD score at BSI onset was associated with 30-day mortality in S. aureus BSIs (odds ratio per 1-point increase, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.03‒1.09; P < 0.001). After adjustment for relevant patient and infection characteristics, an increased MELD score remained a predictor of 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio per 1-point increase, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.01‒1.08; P = 0.005).ConclusionsIn our study population, the MELD score at BSI onset was an independent predictor of mortality in S. aureus BSIs. We therefore suggest to prospectively validate the MELD score as part of clinical decision support systems in inpatients with suspected or confirmed BSI.

Doppler Ultrasound in Liver Cirrhosis: Correlation of Hepatic Artery and Portal Vein Measurements With Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score.

To determine whether hepatic arterial and portal venous Doppler ultrasound measurements of the liver in cirrhotic patients correlate with patients' Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, splenomegaly, or ascites. Sonographic images and reports were reviewed of 264 patients with hepatic cirrhosis who underwent abdominal ultrasound with Doppler in this internal review board-approved retrospective study. MELD scores were recorded at the time of ultrasound. On gray-scale ultrasound, spleen length was measured and the presence of ascites was noted. Hepatic arterial velocity (HAv) with angle correction, hepatic arterial resistive index, and portal vein velocity with angle correction were measured on Doppler ultrasound. Correlation of hepatic arterial and portal venous Doppler values with MELD score, presence of splenomegaly, and presence of ascites was tested using linear or binary logistic regression analysis. Diagnostic performance of Doppler parameters for high-risk MELD was assessed. The HAv statistically significantly correlated with the MELD score (P = .0001), spleen size (P =.027), and presence of ascites (P =.0001), whereas the hepatic arterial resistive index and portal vein velocity did not correlate with these factors. For MELD scores greater than 19, an HAv greater than 120 cm/s showed accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 74, 42, 90, 67, and 76%, respectively. With an HAv greater than 160 cm/s, the odds ratio for MELD scores greater than 19 was 42.1. We found a statistically significant correlation with elevated HAv and increasing MELD scores, splenomegaly, and presence of ascites in patients with cirrhotic liver disease; this may be a useful imaging biomarker in the evaluation of patients with cirrhosis.

Using an Electronic Medical Records Database to Identify Non-Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Among adults with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), 25% of deaths are attributable to cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD risk reduction in NAFLD requires not only modification of traditional CVD risk factors but identification of risk factors unique to NAFLD. In a NAFLD cohort, we sought to identify non-traditional risk factors associated with CVD. NAFLD was determined by a previously described algorithm and a multivariable logistic regression model determined predictors of CVD. Of the 8,409 individuals with NAFLD, 3,243 had CVD and 5,166 did not. On multivariable analysis, CVD among NAFLD patients was associated with traditional CVD risk factors including family history of CVD (OR 4.25, P=0.0007), hypertension (OR 2.54, P=0.0017), renal failure (OR 1.59, P=0.04), and age (OR 1.05, P<0.0001). Several non-traditional CVD risk factors including albumin, sodium, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score were associated with CVD. On multivariable analysis, an increased MELD score (OR 1.10, P<0.0001) was associated with an increased risk of CVD. Albumin (OR 0.52, P<0.0001) and sodium (OR 0.96, P=0.037) were inversely associated with CVD. In addition, CVD was more common among those with a NAFLD fibrosis score >0.676 than those with a score ≤0.676 (39 vs. 20%, P<0.0001). CVD in NAFLD is associated with traditional CVD risk factors, as well as higher MELD scores and lower albumin and sodium levels. Individuals with evidence of advanced fibrosis were more likely to have CVD. These findings suggest that the drivers of NAFLD may also promote CVD development and progression.

Survival outcomes in liver transplant recipients with Model for End‐stage Liver Disease scores of 40 or higher: a decade‐long experience

BackgroundThe Model for End‐stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been used as a prognostic tool since 2002 to predict pre‐transplant mortality. Increasing proportions of transplant candidates with higher MELD scores, combined with improvements in transplant outcomes, mandate the need to study surgical outcomes in patients with MELD scores of ≥40. MethodsA retrospective longitudinal analysis of United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data on all liver transplantations performed between February 2002 and June 2011 (n= 33 398) stratified by MELD score (<30, 30–39, ≥40) was conducted. The primary outcomes of interest were short‐ and longterm graft and patient survival. A Kaplan–Meier product limit method and Cox regression were used. A subanalysis using a futile population was performed to determine futility predictors. ResultsOf the 33 398 transplant recipients analysed, 74% scored <30, 18% scored 30–39, and 8% scored ≥40 at transplantation. Recipients with MELD scores of ≥40 were more likely to be younger (P < 0.001), non‐White and to have shorter waitlist times (P< 0.001). Overall patient survival correlated inversely with increasing MELD score; this trend was consistent for both short‐term (30 days and 90 days) and longterm (1, 3 and 5 years) graft and patient survival. In multivariate analysis, increasing age, African‐American ethnicity, donor obesity and diabetes were negative predictors of survival. Futility predictors included patient age of >60 years, obesity, peri‐transplantation intensive care unit hospitalization with ventilation, and multiple comorbidities. ConclusionsLiver transplantation in recipients with MELD scores of ≥40 offers acceptable longterm survival outcomes. Futility predictors indicate the need for prospective follow‐up studies to define the population to gain the highest benefit from this precious resource.

Mortality in hepatectomy: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease as a predictor of death using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

The predictive value of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) for mortality after hepatectomy is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate whether MELD score predicts death after hepatectomy and to identify the most useful score type for predicting mortality. We hypothesized that an increase in this score is correlated with 30-day mortality in patients undergoing hepatic resection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for hepatectomy. Original MELD, United Network of Organ Sharing-modified MELD (uMELD), integrated MELD (i-MELD), and sodium-corrected MELD (MELD-Na) scores were calculated. Mortality was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. MELD types were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. From 2005 to 2011, 11,933 hepatic resections were performed, including 7,519 partial, 2,104 right, and 1,210 left resections, and 1,100 trisectionectomies. The mean duration of stay was 8.4 ± 22.0 days, and there were 275 deaths (2.4%). The 30-day mortality rates were 1.8%, 6.9%, 15.4%, and 25% according to uMELD strata of 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, and ≥ 30, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that increasing MELD stratum was independently associated with higher mortality (P < .001) for all MELD types. The uMELD had the largest effect size (odds ratio [OR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.20), whereas i-MELD had the narrowest CI (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.10-1.17) and largest area under the ROC curve. The postoperative 30-day mortality after hepatectomy increases with increasing MELD score across all MELD types. There is a 16% increase in the odds of mortality for each point increase in uMELD.

Model for end-stage liver disease predicts right ventricular failure in patients with left ventricular assist devices.

High rates of right ventricular failure continue to affect postoperative outcomes in patients implanted with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs). Development of right ventricular failure and implantation with right ventricular assist devices is known to be associated with significantly increased mortality. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an effective means of evaluating liver dysfunction. We investigated the prognostic utility of postoperative MELD on post-LVAD implantation outcomes. MELD scores, demographic data, and outcomes including length of stay, survival, and postoperative right ventricular failure were collected for 256 patients implanted with continuous flow LVADs. Regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to investigate the relationship between MELD and all outcomes. Increased MELD score was found to be an independent predictor of both right heart failure and necessity for RVAD implantation (OR 1.097, CI 1.040-1.158, p = 0.001; OR 1.121, CI 1.015, p = 0.024, respectively). Patients with RV failure and who underwent RVAD implantation had reduced postoperative survival compared to patients with RV dysfunction (no RV failure = 651.4 ± 609.8 days, RV failure = 392.6 ± 444.8 days, RVAD = 89.3 ± 72.8 days; p < 0.001). In conclusion, MELD can be used to reliably predict postoperative right heart failure and the necessity for RVAD implantation. Those patients with RV failure and RVADs experience significantly increased postoperative mortality compared to those without RV dysfunction.

De-novo portal vein thrombosis in liver cirrhosis: risk factors and correlation with the Model for End-stage Liver Disease scoring system.

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a potential lethal complication in late liver cirrhosis. There is a lack of knowledge of the clinical features and risk factors of PVT. We aimed to investigate the clinical and radiological characteristics, and biochemical markers of cirrhotic patients to determine the high-risk individuals for PVT attending our center. Of 426 cirrhotic patients, only 120 consecutive patients were included. Clinical, biochemical, immunological, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, portal vein patency, and flow velocity were measured in all patients at baseline and every 6 months thereafter. Variables that could predict the development of PVT within 1 year were identified by multiple logistic regression. Only 95 patients completed the study; PVT was found in 17 (17.9%) patients. PVT was observed mainly in the portal trunk, superior mesenteric vein, and splenic vein. Univariate analysis showed that diabetes mellitus, lower levels of hemoglobin, platelet counts, and portal vein flow velocity as well as increased MELD scores, platelet indices, portal vein diameter, and splenic thickness were associated with PVT patients than in non-PVT patients (all P<0.01). The incidence of PVT was 17.9%. PVT occurred mainly in the portal vein trunk, superior mesenteric vein, and splenic vein. Diabetes mellitus, lower levels of hemoglobin, platelet count and portal vein flow velocity as well as increased MELD score, platelet indices, portal vein diameter, and splenic thickening were associated with PVT. Splenic thickening, marked reduced of mean portal flow velocity, and diabetes mellitus may be risk factors for PVT.

Excess mortality on the liver transplant waiting list: Unintended policy consequences and model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) inflation

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) allocation system for liver transplantation provides "exceptions" for diseases such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It was the aim of this study to assess equipoise between exception candidates and nonexception candidates on the waiting list and to assess if the exception system contributes to steadily increasing regional MELD at transplant. In all, 78,595 adult liver transplant candidates between January 2005 and December 2012 were analyzed. Yearly trends in waiting list characteristics and transplantation rates were analyzed for statistical association with MELD exceptions. Regional variations in these associations and the effect of exceptions on regional MELD scores at transplant were also analyzed. 27.29% of the waiting list was occupied by candidates with exceptions. Candidates with exceptions fared much better on the waiting list compared to those without exceptions in mean days waiting (HCC 237 versus non-HCC 426), transplantation rates (HCC 79.05% versus non-HCC 40.60%), and waiting list death rates (HCC 4.49% versus non-HCC 24.63%). Strong regional variation in exception use occurred but exceptions were highly correlated with waiting list death rates, transplantation rates, and MELD score at removal in all regions. In a multivariate model predicting MELD score at transplant within regions, the percentage of HCC MELD exceptions was the strongest independent predictor of regional MELD score at transplant. Liver transplant candidates with MELD exceptions have superior outcomes compared to nonexception candidates and the current MELD exception system is largely responsible for steadily increasing MELD scores at transplant independent of geography.

Assessing Variation in the Costs of Care Among Patients Awaiting Liver Transplantation

Previous economic analyses of liver transplantation have focused on the cost of the transplant and subsequent care. Accurate characterization of the pretransplant costs, indexed to severity of illness, is needed to assess the economic burden of liver disease. A novel data set linking Medicare claims with transplant registry data for 15 710 liver transplant recipients was used to determine average monthly waitlist spending (N = 249 434 waitlist months) using multivariable linear regression models to adjust for recipient characteristics including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Characteristics associated with higher spending included older age, female gender, hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, hypertension and increasing MELD score (p < 0.05 for all). Spending increased exponentially with severity of illness: expected monthly spending at a MELD score of 30 was 10 times higher than at MELD of 20 ($22 685 vs. $2030). Monthly spending within MELD strata also varied geographically. For candidates with a MELD score of 35, spending varied from $19 548 (region 10) to $36 099 (region 7). Regional variation in waitlist costs may reflect the impact of longer waiting times on greater pretransplant hospitalization rates among high MELD score patients. Reducing the number of high MELD waitlist patients through improved medical management and novel organ allocation systems could decrease total spending for end-stage liver care.

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy in the cirrhotic patient: Predictors of outcome

We sought to determine the outcome predictors of 94 cirrhotic patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). We performed a single-center, retrospective review of cirrhotic patients undergoing LC for symptomatic gallbladder disease. Statistical analysis was completed using the Chi-square, Wilcoxon rank-sum, and Student t tests as appropriate. Ninety-four procedures were completed. The median Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score was 6 (range, 5-12), and the average Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 11 ± 5. Hepatitis C was the most common etiology of liver disease (50%) followed by Laennec's cirrhosis (22%). The average length of stay was 2.6 ± 4.3 days; 21% were outpatient procedures. The conversion rate was 11%. Conversion risk factors were decreased serum albumin, increased MELD score, and blood loss. Morbidity occurred in 32 patients. Predictors of morbidity were decreases in serum albumin, increases in International Normalized Ratio (INR) and CTP score, and the number of intraoperative red blood cell transfusions. Mortality occurred in 4 patients. Increased INR, CTP score, CTP class, the number of intraoperative blood and platelet transfusions were predictors of mortality. LC can be safely performed in cirrhotic patients with appropriate patient selection. Liver synthetic function, operative blood loss, transfusion requirement, CTP, and MELD scores may be used to predict outcomes in these patients.