Increase In Public Debt Research Articles

The Euro-Dividend: Public Debt and Interest Rates in the Monetary Union

The ongoing massive fiscal policy stimulus triggered increasing concerns on the potential impact on interest rate levels, as economic theory predicts. Particularly, the deterioration of some EMU countries’ fiscal positions has been putting at risk Eurozone’ financial stability. In this paper, we estimate a Panel VAR (PVAR) model on the EMU area employing annual data from 1970 to 2008 in order to assess the qualitative and quantitative impact of public debt on interest rates Our results show that prior to the introduction of the Euro an increase in public debt led to positive and significant effect on long-term nominal interest rates, with a stronger effect for high-debt countries. After the introduction of the single currency, the effect vanishes (in line with Bernoth 2004). We interpret this result as a confirmation of the crucial role of the monetary union in weakening the automatic risk-premium-based channel between debt shocks and returns on government bond.

Modelling of the Effect of the Public Sector Borrowing on the Lithuanian Economy

During the last two decades many countries of the world faced rather strong tendency of the public debt increase. In many European countries, including the USA, very similar circumstances occurred, when the government debt increased during the last decade. In the past such high growth of debt level was characteristic only to wars or economic depressions. The level of a certain country’s public debt is mostly determined by the general economic situation of the country and its perspectives. On the other hand, one of the recent and most important issue, faced by many countries, is the effect of the government debt on the economic and social life.Trying to achieve more effective and faster economic development, the government usually borrows in domestic and foreign markets. The academic society discusses the role of the public debt in economics: how the borrowed funds should be used; how much can a government borrow? It is important to determine the place and role of the public debt in the Lithuanian economy and evaluate how borrowing effects the growth of the economy.Currently, the financial markets are closely observing the state budget deficit because it shows how much of financing the government needs at a certain time and how much the rate of the national debt has increased. The analysis of the budget deficit provides information on how effective is the mobilization of the domestic means and on how the state expenses are being managed. All that enables us to decide about state’s borrowing demands. They also point out that the main causes of the budget deficit may be tax collection from income, too high expenses or ineffective control.The governmental borrowing does not cause damage to the economy if only the opportunities provided by debt are used in an optimal way. The aim of this article is to determine a possibility to forecast the limits of the national debt acceptability, knowing the forecasted actual GDP growth and the value of the budget deficit. It is important to learn what level of the fiscal deficit is acceptable to the state and how it could be managed under certain economic conditions. In making a choice for the criteria needed to determine the acceptable level of the budget deficit, it is indispensable to make a notice of the possibility to apply those criteria, e.g. in analyzing and forecasting.

Wer soll für die Schulden im Bundesstaat haften? Eine vernachlässigte Frage der Föderalismusreform II

: Mutual debt liability of the German federal states (Lander) contributed to the large increase of public debt in Germany over the last half century. A commission eager to impose stricter debt limits on state budgets encountered opposition by the Lander. This article proposes the strengthening of the Lander liability for their respective debt in order to disentangle interdependencies between state layers. A recent Federal Constitutional Court ruling is analyzed which sharply reduced bailout expectations of Lander and hence allows for the evolution of new institutions such as public bonds with collective action clauses as intermediate institutions towards strict bankruptcy procedures.

Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study

This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence that supports the predictions of Sargent and Wallace's “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic” that an increase in public debt is typically inflationary in countries with large public debt. Drawing on an extensive panel data set, we find that the relationship holds strongly in indebted developing countries, weakly in other developing countries, and generally does not hold in developed economies. These results are robust to the inclusion of other variables, corrections for endogeneity biases, relaxation of common-slope restrictions, and are invariant over subsample periods. We estimate a vector autoregression to trace out the transmission channel and find the impulse responses consistent with the predictions of a forward-looking model of inflation. Wealth effects of public debt could also affect inflation, as posited by the fiscal theory of the price level, but we do not find supportive evidence. The results suggest that the risk of a debt-inflation trap is significant in highly indebted countries and pure money-based stabilization is unlikely to be effective over the medium term. Our findings stress the importance of institutional and structural factors in the link between fiscal policy and inflation.

Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands -Aruba

Aruba is one of the most developed islands in the Caribbean. Still, it is vulnerable to external shocks owing to its heavy dependence on tourism and a steady increase in public debt. Policies to support further fiscal consolidation and boost Aruba’s growth potential are needed. Maintaining macroeconomic stability will require fiscal adjustment and an appropriately tight monetary policy. Bolstering the growth potential will require creating the right conditions for private investment and diversification. The financial system is generally sound, but warrants continued supervisory vigilance.

Decentralization and Fiscal Discipline in Sub-national Governments: Evidence from the Swiss Federal System

This article analyses the relationship between decentralization and the extent of fiscal discipline in the Swiss cantons between 1984 and 2000. From a theoretical point of view, decentralization and federalism can be associated with both an expansive and a dampening effect on government debt. On the one hand, decentralized structures have been argued to lead to a reduction of debt due to inherent competition between the member states and the multitude of veto positions which restrict public intervention. On the other hand, decentralization has been claimed to contribute to an increase of public debt as it involves expensive functional and organizational duplications as well as cost-intensive, often debt-financed, compromise solutions between a large number of actors that operate in an uncoordinated and contradictory way. Our empirical results show that in periods of prosperous economic development, the architecture of state structure has no impact on debt. However, the degree of decentralization influences debt in economically poor times: In phases of economic recession, administratively decentralized cantons implement a more economical budgetary policy than centralized Swiss member states.

Fiscal policy rules in practice

This paper analyzes German and Spanish fiscal policy using simple policy rules. We choose Germany and Spain, as both are Member States in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and underwent considerable increases in public debt in the early 1990s. We focus on the question, how fiscal policy behaves under rising public debt ratios. It is found that both Germany and Spain generally exhibit a positive relationship between government revenues and debt. Using Markov-switching techniques, we show that both countries underwent a change in policy behavior in the light of rising debt/output ratios at the end of the 1990s. Interestingly, this change in policy behavior differs in its characteristics across the two countries and seems to be non-permanent in the case of Germany.

Fiscal Policy Rules in Practice

This paper analyzes German and Spanish fiscal policy using simple policy rules. We choose Germany and Spain, as both are Member States in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and underwent considerable increases in public debt in the early 1990s. We focus on the question, how fiscal policy behaves under rising public debt ratios. It is found that both Germany and Spain generally exhibit a positive relationship between government revenues and debt. Using Markov-switching techniques, we show that both countries underwent a change in policy behavior in the light of rising debt/output ratios at the end of the 1990s. Interestingly, this change in policy behavior differs in its characteristics across the two countries and seems to be non-permanent in the case of Germany.

Economic Growth with Constraints on Tax Revenues and Public Debt: Implications for Fiscal Policy and Cross-Country Differences

This paper evaluates optimal public investment and fiscal policy for countries characterized by limited tax and debt capacities. We study a non stochastic CRS endogenous growth model where public expenditure is an input in the production process, in countries where distortions and limited enforceability result in limited fiscal capacities, as captured by a maximal effective tax rate. We show how persistent differences in growth rates across countries could stem from differential public finance constraints, and differentiate between the case where the public expenditure finances the flow of recurring spending (such as law enforcement), versus the stock of tangible public infrastructure. Although the flow of public expenditure raises productivity, the government should not borrow to finance it as the resulting increase in public debt would lower welfare and the growth rate. With outstanding public debt, the optimal fiscal policy should keep the debt-to-GDP ratio constant in the economy with or without a binding constraint on tax revenues as a share of GDP - current non-durable public goods should be financed only from current revenue. With investment in the stock of public infrastructure, public sector borrowing to finance the accumulation of public capital goods may allow the economy to reach a long-run optimal growth path faster. With a binding tax capacity constraint, if the ratio of the initial public/private sector stock of capital is smaller than the sustainable balanced growth ratio, the optimal policy for the government is to purchase public capital, financed by debt, to immediately attain the sustainable ratio of public capital to private capital. The sustainable steady-state ratio is endogenous to the initial public-to-private capital ratio, the tax capacity and any exogenous debt limit (say, due to sovereign risk). With capital stock adjustment costs, these statements apply to a transition of finite duration rather than an instantaneous stock jump. With either a binding exogenous debt limit or solvency constrained borrowing, a more patient country will have a higher steady-state growth rate but a lower steady-state public-to-private capital ratio.

Staatsverschuldung quo vadis?

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird untersucht, ob und inwieweit durch die gegenwartige Zunahme der Staatsverschuldung des Staates in der Bundesrepublik zukunftige Generationen belastet werden und wie sichergestellt werden kann, dass eine zunehmende Staatsverschuldung tragfahig in dem Sinne ist, dass die Entwicklung der Verschuldung beherrschbar ist und fur kommende Generationen Wohlfahrtsverluste weitestgehend vermieden werden. Es wird gezeigt, dass diese Bedingungen durch die Beachtung der Maastricht-Kriterien auf die Dauer nicht erfullt werden konnen. Moglich ist dies jedoch, wenn die Kreditaufnahme des Staates auf produktive Investitionen beschrankt wird.

Endogenous labor supply in Diamond’s (1965) OLG model: A reconsideration of the debt role

In this paper we show that, when elastic labor supply is considered via Cobb Douglas preferences, dynamic inefficiency of OLG economies, while being still a necessary condition, is no longer sufficient for an internal public debt increase to be welfare improving in the long run. This is due to the fact that the equilibrium interest rate can move in the “wrong” direction if individuals’ labor supply is sufficiently elastic. Consequently, raising the level of debt when the economy is experiencing dynamic inefficiency could even be welfare-worsening, in contrast with [Diamond, P., 1965. National debt in a neoclassical growth model. American Economic Review 41, 1126–1150].

Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study and its Application to Jamaica

This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence that supports the predictions of Sargent and Wallace's (1981) unpleasant monetarist arithmetic that an increase in public debt is typically inflationary in countries with large public debt. Drawing on an extensive panel dataset, we find that the relationship holds strongly in indebted developing countries, weakly in other developing countries, but generally not in developed economies. These results are robust to the inclusion of other variables, corrections for endogeneity biases, and relaxation of common-slope restrictions and are invariant over sub-sample periods. We estimate a VAR to trace out the transmission channel and find the impulse responses consistent with the predictions of a forward-looking model of inflation. Wealth effects of public debt could also affect inflation, as posited by the fiscal theory of the price level, but we do not find supportive evidence. The results suggest that the risk of a debt-inflation trap is significant in highly indebted countries, and pure money-based stabilization is unlikely to be effective over the medium term. Our findings stress the importance of institutional and structural factors in the link between fiscal policy and inflation.

Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study and its Application to Jamaica

This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence that supports the predictions of Sargent and Wallace's (1981) 'unpleasant monetarist arithmetic' that an increase in public debt is typically inflationary in countries with large public debt. Drawing on an extensive panel dataset, we find that the relationship holds strongly in indebted developing countries, weakly in other developing countries, but generally not in developed economies. These results are robust to the inclusion of other variables, corrections for endogeneity biases, and relaxation of common-slope restrictions and are invariant over sub-sample periods. We estimate a VAR to trace out the transmission channel and find the impulse responses consistent with the predictions of a forward-looking model of inflation. Wealth effects of public debt could also affect inflation, as posited by the fiscal theory of the price level, but we do not find supportive evidence. The results suggest that the risk of a debt-inflation trap is significant in highly indebted countries, and pure money-based stabilization is unlikely to be effective over the medium term. Our findings stress the importance of institutional and structural factors in the link between fiscal policy and inflation.

A model for ordinally constructing additive objective functions

We investigate a method for constructing piecewise-linear approximations of an additive (called also separable) objective function in n target variables from a few indifference points in two-dimensional planes. It is shown that (a) the data used by the method are ordinal, simplest, and minimal; (b) the limit ordinal preference is independent of the cardinal utility scale used in intermediate computations, since the accuracy of the approximations is estimated in the Hausdorff metric on the space of binary relations. The method is illustrated with an example of constructing an additive objective function of German economic policy in four target variables: Inflation, Unemployment, GNP Growth, and Increase in Public Debt. We provide some modifications of the model aimed at user's convenience.

The Welfare Effects of the Reagan Deficits: A Portfolio Choice Approach

I analyze the incidence of U.S. fiscal policy using a two‐period, general equilibrium portfolio choice model with imperfect capital markets. Using data from the 1983–89 Panel Survey of Consumer Finances, I divide the population into three groups according to their 1982 portfolio choices and calculate average tax rates for each class of asset holders. Compared to the counterfactual of constant tax rates, the high deficits of the 1980 s harmed the welfare of two large minorities concentrated in both the higher‐ and lower‐income groups, but benefited the majority whose income fell largely in the middle of the income distribution.

Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Issues in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

The fiscal position of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) has deteriorated significantly in recent years, resulting in sharp increases in public debt. The sustainability of public debt is examined using the public sector budget constraint to derive the maximum public-debt-to-GDP ratio that can be sustained based on a country's projected steady-state primary balance, interest rate on public debt, and economic growth rate. In this context, government deficits and debt in several ECCU member countries appear unsustainable, posing a risk to the stability of the currency union. A critical issue facing member countries is to implement fiscal policies consistent with sustainable public finances and debt to underpin the currency union.

Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Issues in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

The fiscal position of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) has deteriorated significantly in recent years, resulting in sharp increases in public debt. The sustainability of public debt is examined using the public sector budget constraint to derive the maximum public-debt-to-GDP ratio that can be sustained based on a country's projected steady-state primary balance, interest rate on public debt, and economic growth rate. In this context, government deficits and debt in several ECCU member countries appear unsustainable, posing a risk to the stability of the currency union. A critical issue facing member countries is to implement fiscal policies consistent with sustainable public finances and debt to underpin the currency union.

National Debt, Borrowing Constraints, and Human Capital Accumulation in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper presents an overlapping-generations endogenous growth model of human capital accumulation with borrowing constrained young individuals. On a small open economy's equilibrium growth path, production, human capital, and physical capital all grow at a uniform rate that depends, apart from a vector of parameters, only on the amount of time that decentrally optimizing, borrowing constrained private households allocate to education and training. An increase in public debt that is used to redistribute tax burdens from every individual's youth to his middle age raises the equilibrium growth rate of the economy and improves the intertemporal allocation of resources.

The role of fiscal policy in Japan: a quantitative study

This paper analyzes the role of fiscal policy in the recent slowdown in Japan. A dynamic general equilibrium model is developed in which fiscal policy can have both expansionary effects (through increasing returns) and contractionary effects (through the increase of public debt and tax burden). A version of the model is calibrated to the Japanese economy and is used to measure the importance of both these effects. We find that, under a wide range of parameters, net expansionary effects are quantitatively small, thus suggesting a limited role for fiscal stabilization

Constructing a monotonic quadratic objective function in n variables from a few two-dimensional indifferences

We develop a model for constructing quadratic objective functions in n target variables. At the input, a decision maker is asked a few simple questions about his ordinal preferences (comparing two-dimensional alternatives in terms `better', `worse', `indifferent'). At the output, the model mathematically derives a quadratic objective function used to evaluate n-dimensional alternatives. Thus the model deals with some imaginary decisions (criteria aggregates) at the input, and disaggregates the decision maker's preference into partial criteria and their cross-correlations (=a quadratic objective function). Therefore, the model provides an approximation step which is next to the disaggregation of a preference into additively separable linear criteria with weight coefficients. The model is based on least squares fitting a quadratic indifference hypersurface (if n=2, indifference curve) to several alternatives which are supposed to be equivalent in preference. The resulting ordinal preference is independent of the cardinal utility scale used in intermediate computations which implies that the model is ordinal. The monotonicity of the quadratic objective function is implemented by means of a finite number of linear constraints, so that the computational model is reduced to restricted least squares. In illustration, we construct a quadratic objective function of German economic policy in four target variables: inflation, unemployment, GNP growth, and increase in public debt. This objective function is used to evaluate the German economic development in 1980–1994. In another application, we construct a quadratic objective function of ski station customers. Then it is used to adjust prices of 10 ski stations to the South of Stuttgart. In Appendix A we provide an original fast algorithm for restricted least squares and quadratic programming used in the main model.