Surface Melt Increase Research Articles

Meteorological drivers of melt at two nearby glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica

Abstract We study the meteorological drivers of melt at two glaciers in Taylor Valley, Antarctica, using 22 years of weather station observations and surface energy fluxes. The glaciers are located only 30 km apart, but have different local climates; Taylor Glacier is generally drier and windier than Commonwealth Glacier, which receives more snowfall due to its proximity to the coast. Commonwealth Glacier shows more inter-annual melt variability, explained by variable albedo due to summer snowfall events. A significant increase in surface melt at Commonwealth Glacier is associated with a decrease in summer minimum albedo. Inter-annual variability in melt at both glaciers is linked to degree-days above freezing during föhn events, occurring more frequently at Taylor Glacier. At Taylor Glacier melt occurs most often with positive air temperatures, but föhn conditions also favour sublimation, which cools the surface and prevents melt for the majority of the positive air temperatures. At Commonwealth Glacier, most of the melt instead occurs with sub-zero air temperatures, driven by strong solar radiative heating. Future melt at Taylor Glacier will likely be more sensitive to changes in föhn events, while Commonwealth Glacier will be impacted more by changes in near coastal weather, where moisture inputs can drive cloud cover, snowfall and change albedo.

Meighen Ice Cap: changes in geometry, mass, and climatic response since 1959

Remote sensing (satellite and airborne) and in situ monitoring measurements indicate that the Meighen Ice Cap has thinned by 10 ± 3 m between 1960 and 2016, resulting in areal shrinkage by 32 km2 (38%) and total mass loss of 0.71 ± 0.2 gigatonnes. Retreat of the ice margin along the North basin by up to 2.5 km accounted for 50% of the total area loss over the 56-year period of this study. A strong inverse relationship between atmospheric summer temperature anomalies, and in situ mass balance measurements (r = −0.74) indicates that accelerated rates of mass loss from the Meighen Ice Cap are largely driven by regional scale summer warming. Increases in summer temperature anomalies by 1.9 °C from 1960–2004 to 2005–2016 coincided with a five-fold increase in surface melt across the Meighen Ice Cap. Since the 1990s, the Equilibrium Line Altitude has been positioned above the summit of the Meighen Ice Cap, resulting in loss of the accumulation zone that persisted for the first three decades of this study. Since the early 2000s, the ice cap summit has thinned by more than 4 m, which is unprecedented in the period of record. Response time calculations based on 2006–2016 average mass balance data indicate that the Meighen Ice Cap, which has been in existence for ∼3500 years, will completely disappear in ∼175 years.

Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields

The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We seek to provide this assessment by modelling the SMB between 1976 and 2050 for both icefields, using regional climate model data (RegCM4.6) and a range of emission scenarios. For the NPI, reductions between 1.5 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.9 m w.e. (RCP8.5) were estimated in the mean SMB during the period 2005–2050 compared to the historical period (1976–2005). For the SPI, the estimated reductions were between 1.1 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.5 m w.e. (RCP8.5). Recently frontal ablation estimates suggest that mean SMB in the SPI is positively biased by 1.5 m w.e., probably due to accumulation overestimation. If it is assumed that frontal ablation rates of the recent past will continue, ice loss and sea-level rise contribution will increase. The trend towards lower SMB is mostly explained by an increase in surface melt. Positive ice loss feedbacks linked to increasing in meltwater availability are expected for calving glaciers.

Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) will be losing mass at an accelerating pace throughout the 21st century, with a direct link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the magnitude of Greenland mass loss. Currently, approximately 60 % of the mass loss contribution comes from surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, while 40 % are due to ice calving. In the ablation zone covered by bare ice in summer, most of the surface melt energy is provided by absorbed shortwave fluxes, which could be reduced by solar geoengineering measures. However, so far very little is known about the potential impacts of an artificial reduction in the incoming solar radiation on the GrIS surface energy budget and the subsequent change in meltwater production. By forcing the regional climate model MAR with the latest CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) future emission scenarios (SSP245, SSP585) and associated G6solar experiment from the CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth system model, we estimate the local impact of a reduced solar constant on the projected GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) decrease. Overall, our results show that even in the case of a low-mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP585), the Greenland surface mass loss can be brought in line with the medium-mitigation emissions scenario (SSP245) by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by ∼ 40 W/m2 or ∼ 1.5 % (using the G6solar experiment). In addition to reducing global warming in line with SSP245, G6solar also decreases the efficiency of surface meltwater production over the Greenland ice sheet by damping the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback. With respect to a MAR simulation where the solar constant remains unchanged, decreasing the solar constant according to G6solar in the MAR radiative scheme mitigates the projected Greenland ice sheet surface melt increase by 6 %. However, only more constraining geoengineering experiments than G6solar would allow us to maintain a positive SMB until the end of this century without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions.

Brief communication: CMIP6 does not suggest any atmospheric blocking increase in summer over Greenland by 2100

AbstractThe Greenland blocking index (GBI), an indicator of the synoptic‐scale circulation over Greenland, has been anomalously positive during most summers since the late 1990s. Such changes in atmospheric circulation, favouring anticyclonic conditions, have led to an increase in Greenland summer temperatures, a decrease in cloud cover and larger surface melt. The GBI is therefore a key indicator of melting and surface mass balance variability over the Greenland ice sheet. However, the models of fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) do not represent the increase in GBI that is suggested by recent observations, and do not project any significant increase in GBI until 2100. In this study, the new generation of CMIP6 Earth‐system models is evaluated in order to analyse the evolution of the future GBI. All CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections reveal the same trend towards a decrease of the GBI until 2100 and no model reproduces the strong increase in the persistence of summer blocking events observed over the last few decades. Significant melting events related to a highly positive GBI, as observed in summer 2019, are still not considered by CMIP6 models and therefore the projected surface melt increase of the ice sheet could be underestimated if such summer circulation changes persist in the next decades.

The influence of föhn winds on annual and seasonal surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Abstract. Warm, dry föhn winds are observed over the Larsen C Ice Shelf year-round and are thought to contribute to the continuing weakening and collapse of ice shelves on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula (AP). We use a surface energy balance (SEB) model, driven by observations from two locations on the Larsen C Ice Shelf and one on the remnants of Larsen B, in combination with output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), to investigate the year-round impact of föhn winds on the SEB and melt from 2009 to 2012. Föhn winds have an impact on the individual components of the surface energy balance in all seasons and lead to an increase in surface melt in spring, summer and autumn up to 100 km away from the foot of the AP. When föhn winds occur in spring they increase surface melt, extend the melt season and increase the number of melt days within a year. Whilst AMPS is able to simulate the percentage of melt days associated with föhn with high skill, it overestimates the total amount of melting during föhn events and non-föhn events. This study extends previous attempts to quantify the impact of föhn on the Larsen C Ice Shelf by including a 4-year study period and a wider area of interest and provides evidence for föhn-related melting on both the Larsen C and Larsen B ice shelves.

Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble

Abstract. Glaciers in the European Alps play an important role in the hydrological cycle, act as a source for hydroelectricity and have a large touristic importance. The future evolution of these glaciers is driven by surface mass balance and ice flow processes, of which the latter is to date not included explicitly in regional glacier projections for the Alps. Here, we model the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps with GloGEMflow, an extended version of the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), in which both surface mass balance and ice flow are explicitly accounted for. The mass balance model is calibrated with glacier-specific geodetic mass balances and forced with high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. The evolution of the total glacier volume in the coming decades is relatively similar under the various representative concentrations pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), with volume losses of about 47 %–52 % in 2050 with respect to 2017. We find that under RCP2.6, the ice loss in the second part of the 21st century is relatively limited and that about one-third (36.8 % ± 11.1 %, multi-model mean ±1σ) of the present-day (2017) ice volume will still be present in 2100. Under a strong warming (RCP8.5) the future evolution of the glaciers is dictated by a substantial increase in surface melt, and glaciers are projected to largely disappear by 2100 (94.4±4.4 % volume loss vs. 2017). For a given RCP, differences in future changes are mainly determined by the driving global climate model (GCM), rather than by the RCM, and these differences are larger than those arising from various model parameters (e.g. flow parameters and cross-section parameterisation). We find that under a limited warming, the inclusion of ice dynamics reduces the projected mass loss and that this effect increases with the glacier elevation range, implying that the inclusion of ice dynamics is likely to be important for global glacier evolution projections.

Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model

Abstract. In the context of global warming, growing attention is paid to the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise at the centennial timescale. Atmosphere–GrIS interactions, such as the temperature–elevation and the albedo feedbacks, have the potential to modify the surface energy balance and thus to impact the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). In turn, changes in the geometrical features of the ice sheet may alter both the climate and the ice dynamics governing the ice sheet evolution. However, changes in ice sheet geometry are generally not explicitly accounted for when simulating atmospheric changes over the Greenland ice sheet in the future. To account for ice sheet–climate interactions, we developed the first two-way synchronously coupled model between a regional atmospheric model (MAR) and a 3-D ice sheet model (GRISLI). Using this novel model, we simulate the ice sheet evolution from 2000 to 2150 under a prolonged representative concentration pathway scenario, RCP8.5. Changes in surface elevation and ice sheet extent simulated by GRISLI have a direct impact on the climate simulated by MAR. They are fed to MAR from 2020 onwards, i.e. when changes in SMB produce significant topography changes in GRISLI. We further assess the importance of the atmosphere–ice sheet feedbacks through the comparison of the two-way coupled experiment with two other simulations based on simpler coupling strategies: (i) a one-way coupling with no consideration of any change in ice sheet geometry; (ii) an alternative one-way coupling in which the elevation change feedbacks are parameterized in the ice sheet model (from 2020 onwards) without taking into account the changes in ice sheet topography in the atmospheric model. The two-way coupled experiment simulates an important increase in surface melt below 2000 m of elevation, resulting in an important SMB reduction in 2150 and a shift of the equilibrium line towards elevations as high as 2500 m, despite a slight increase in SMB over the central plateau due to enhanced snowfall. In relation with these SMB changes, modifications of ice sheet geometry favour ice flux convergence towards the margins, with an increase in ice velocities in the GrIS interior due to increased surface slopes and a decrease in ice velocities at the margins due to decreasing ice thickness. This convergence counteracts the SMB signal in these areas. In the two-way coupling, the SMB is also influenced by changes in fine-scale atmospheric dynamical processes, such as the increase in katabatic winds from central to marginal regions induced by increased surface slopes. Altogether, the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise, inferred from variations in ice volume above floatation, is equal to 20.4 cm in 2150. The comparison between the coupled and the two uncoupled experiments suggests that the effect of the different feedbacks is amplified over time with the most important feedbacks being the SMB–elevation feedbacks. As a result, the experiment with parameterized SMB–elevation feedback provides a sea-level contribution from GrIS in 2150 only 2.5 % lower than the two-way coupled experiment, while the experiment with no feedback is 9.3 % lower. The change in the ablation area in the two-way coupled experiment is much larger than those provided by the two simplest methods, with an underestimation of 11.7 % (14 %) with parameterized feedbacks (no feedback). In addition, we quantify that computing the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise from SMB changes only over a fixed ice sheet mask leads to an overestimation of ice loss of at least 6 % compared to the use of a time variable ice sheet mask. Finally, our results suggest that ice-loss estimations diverge when using the different coupling strategies, with differences from the two-way method becoming significant at the end of the 21st century. In particular, even if averaged over the whole GrIS the climatic and ice sheet fields are relatively similar; at the local and regional scale there are important differences, highlighting the importance of correctly representing the interactions when interested in basin scale changes.

Influence of increasing surface melt over decadal timescales on land-terminating Greenland-type outlet glaciers

ABSTRACTOver recent decades, Greenland ice sheet surface melt has shown an increase both in intensity and spatial extent. Part of this water probably reaches the bed and can enhance glacier speed, advecting a larger volume of ice into the ablation area. In the context of a warming climate, this mechanism could contribute to the future rate of thinning and retreat of land-terminating glaciers of Greenland. These changes in ice flow conditions will in turn influence surface crevassing and thus the ability of water to reach the bed at higher elevations. Here, using a coupled basal hydrology and prognostic ice flow model, the evolution of a Greenland-type glacier subject to increasing surface melt is studied over a few decades. For different scenarios of surface melt increase over the next decades, the evolution of crevassed areas and the ability of water to reach the bed is inferred. Our results indicate that the currently observed crevasse distribution is likely to extend further upstream which will allow water to reach the bed at higher elevations. This will lead to an increase in ice flux into the ablation area which, in turn, accelerates the mass loss of land-terminating glaciers.

Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

AbstractSatellite data and a 35‐year hindcast of the Amundsen Sea Embayment summer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to understand how regional and large‐scale atmospheric variability affects thinning of ice shelves in this sector of West Antarctica by melting from above and below (linked to intrusions of warm water caused by anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge). El Niño episodes are associated with an increase in surface melt but do not have a statistically significant impact on westerly winds over the continental shelf edge. The location of the Amundsen Sea Low and the polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) have negligible impact on surface melting, although a positive SAM and eastward shift of the Amundsen Sea Low cause anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge. The projected future increase in El Niño episodes and positive SAM could therefore increase the risk of disintegration of West Antarctic ice shelves.

The modelled liquid water balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. Recent studies indicate that the surface mass balance will dominate the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) contribution to 21st century sea level rise. Consequently, it is crucial to understand the liquid water balance (LWB) of the ice sheet and its response to increasing surface melt. We therefore analyse a firn simulation conducted with the SNOWPACK model for the GrIS and over the period 1960–2014 with a special focus on the LWB and refreezing. Evaluations of the simulated refreezing climate with GRACE and firn temperature observations indicate a good model–observation agreement. Results of the LWB analysis reveal a spatially uniform increase in surface melt (0.16 m w.e. a−1) during 1990–2014. As a response, refreezing and run-off also indicate positive changes during this period (0.05 and 0.11 m w.e. a−1, respectively), where refreezing increases at only half the rate of run-off, implying that the majority of the additional liquid input runs off the ice sheet. This pattern of refreeze and run-off is spatially variable. For instance, in the south-eastern part of the GrIS, most of the additional liquid input is buffered in the firn layer due to relatively high snowfall rates. Modelled increase in refreezing leads to a decrease in firn air content and to a substantial increase in near-surface firn temperature. On the western side of the ice sheet, modelled firn temperature increases are highest in the lower accumulation zone and are primarily caused by the exceptional melt season of 2012. On the eastern side, simulated firn temperature increases are more gradual and are associated with the migration of firn aquifers to higher elevations.

On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002–2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958–1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr−1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-1990s was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990s, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small ( < 3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from low-lying ( < 2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater from occurring, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991–2015 average annual mass loss of ∼ 0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

Darkening of the Greenland ice sheet due to the melt albedo feedback observed at PROMICE weather stations

The Greenland ice sheet is losing mass (Barletta et al. 2012) and at least half of this loss is caused by an increase in surface melt (e.g. Tedesco et al. 2013). The other part is caused by increased dynamic mass loss, as marine-terminating glaciers lose resistive stresses (Nick et al. 2009) due to both retreat and meltwater lubrication at the bed (Sasgen et al. 2012). In 2007, the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) was initiated with the aim of gaining an insight into the causes of the ice-mass budget changes based on quantitative observations. This is primarily done by assessing how much mass is gained as snow accumulation on the surface versus how much is lost by calving and surface ablation (Ahlstrøm et al. 2008). PROMICE monitors the surface mass balance by means of automatic weather stations (AWSs) designed to quantify accumulation and ablation, as well as the specific energy sources contributing to ablation. These observations are vital to interpreting the physical mechanisms for ice-sheet response to climate change and for the calibration and validation of both satellite observations and climate models.

The 1979–2005 Greenland ice sheet melt extent from passive microwave data using an improved version of the melt retrieval XPGR algorithm

Analysis of passive microwave satellite observations over the Greenland ice sheet reveals a significant increase in surface melt over the period 1979–2005. Since 1979, the total melt area was found to have increased by +1.22 × 107 km2. An improved version of the cross‐polarized gradient ratio (XPGR) technique is used to identify the melt from the brightness temperatures. The improvements in the melt retrieval XPGR algorithm as well as the surface melt acceleration are discussed with results from a coupled atmosphere‐snow regional climate model. From 1979 to 2005, the ablation period has been increasing everywhere over the melt zone except in the regions where the model simulates an increased summer snowfall. Indeed, more snowfall in summer decreases the liquid water content of the snowpack, raises the albedo and therefore reduces the melt. Finally, the observed melt acceleration over the Greenland ice sheet is highly correlated with both Greenland and global warming suggesting a continuing surface melt increase in the future.