Increase In Stratospheric Water Vapor Research Articles

The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Stratospheric Water Vapor Increases After Large‐Magnitude Explosive Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractSubstantial and prolonged enhancements in stratospheric water vapor (SWV) have occurred after large‐magnitude explosive tropical volcanic eruptions, with modified tropopause entry caused by aerosol‐absorptive heating. Here, we analyze the timing and longevity of heating‐driven post‐eruption SWV changes within CMIP6‐VolMIP short‐term climate‐response experiments with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). We find aerosol‐absorptive heating causes peak SWV increases of 17% (∼1 ppmv) and 10% (0.5 ppmv) at 100 and 50 hPa, at ∼18 and ∼23 months after a Pinatubo‐like eruption, respectively. We track the temperature response in the tropical lower stratosphere and identify the main SWV increase occurs only after the descending aerosol heating reaches the tropopause, suggesting a key role for aerosol microphysical processes (sedimentation rate). We explore how El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability modulates this effect. Post‐eruption SWV increases are ∼80% stronger for the La Nina phase compared to the ensemble mean. Tropical upwelling strongly mediates this effect.

Measurements of Stratospheric Water Vapor at Mauna Loa and the Effect of the Hunga Tonga Eruption

AbstractThe eruption of Hunga Tonga in January 2022 injected an amount of water vapor into the stratosphere that is unprecedented in the satellite era. In the ensuing months Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements showed that this plume of water vapor spread from its original injection site at 20.5°S to Mauna Loa, Hawaii at 19.5°N, where an increase was observed in April by the ground‐based Water Vapor Millimeter‐wave Spectrometer instruments. Interannual variations in water vapor occur over Mauna Loa due to both dynamical variations in the tropical stratosphere and variations in the amount of water vapor crossing the tropical tropopause, and we place the observed stratospheric water vapor increase from Hunga Tonga into context of these other variations that have been observed since 2013.

Significant Contribution of Stratospheric Water Vapor to the Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Circulation in Autumn Under Greenhouse Warming

AbstractWidening of the Hadley circulation and associated poleward shifts of subtropical dry zones have drawn extensive studies in the past decade. It is found that the poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation has strong seasonality and peaks in autumn in both Hemispheres in response to quadrupling CO2. Here we find that the poleward expansion in autumn is closely related to the increase of stratospheric water vapor (SWV). The SWV increase radiatively cools the stratosphere especially in the polar lower stratosphere, which consequently leads to widening of the Hadley cell in autumn. The SWV effect is affirmed in a set of “SWV‐locking” experiments. It is found that the SWV increase leads to a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation in autumn in both Hemispheres, which contributes about 30% of the total expansion due to quadrupling CO2 in autumn.

The impact of volcanic eruptions of different magnitude on stratospheric water vapor in the tropics

Abstract. Increasing the temperature of the tropical cold-point region through heating by volcanic aerosols results in increases in the entry value of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and subsequent changes in the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5, 160] %. However, for single ensemble members, the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation-based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5±2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear-sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W m−2, ranging between [2.5, 4] % of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold-point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to aerosol optical depth (AOD) nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold-point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases of 12 % per Kelvin increase in mean cold-point temperature. For yearly averages, power functions are fitted to the cold-point warming and SWV forcing with increasing AOD.

Slow feedbacks resulting from strongly enhanced atmospheric methane mixing ratios in a chemistry–climate model with mixed-layer ocean

Abstract. In a previous study the quasi-instantaneous chemical impacts (rapid adjustments) of strongly enhanced methane (CH4) mixing ratios have been analysed. However, to quantify the influence of the respective slow climate feedbacks on the chemical composition it is necessary to include the radiation-driven temperature feedback. Therefore, we perform sensitivity simulations with doubled and quintupled present-day (year 2010) CH4 mixing ratios with the chemistry–climate model EMAC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hamburg version – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry) and include in a novel set-up a mixed-layer ocean model to account for tropospheric warming. Strong increases in CH4 lead to a reduction in the hydroxyl radical in the troposphere, thereby extending the CH4 lifetime. Slow climate feedbacks counteract this reduction in the hydroxyl radical through increases in tropospheric water vapour and ozone, thereby dampening the extension of CH4 lifetime in comparison with the quasi-instantaneous response. Changes in the stratospheric circulation evolve clearly with the warming of the troposphere. The Brewer–Dobson circulation strengthens, affecting the response of trace gases, such as ozone, water vapour and CH4 in the stratosphere, and also causing stratospheric temperature changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the increase in stratospheric water vapour is reduced with respect to the quasi-instantaneous response. We find that this difference cannot be explained by the response of the cold point and the associated water vapour entry values but by a weaker strengthening of the in situ source of water vapour through CH4 oxidation. However, in the lower stratosphere water vapour increases more strongly when tropospheric warming is accounted for, enlarging its overall radiative impact. The response of the stratosphere adjusted temperatures driven by slow climate feedbacks is dominated by these increases in stratospheric water vapour as well as strongly decreased ozone mixing ratios above the tropical tropopause, which result from enhanced tropical upwelling. While rapid radiative adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour make an essential contribution to the effective CH4 radiative forcing, the radiative impact of the respective slow feedbacks is rather moderate. In line with this, the climate sensitivity from CH4 changes in this chemistry–climate model set-up is not significantly different from the climate sensitivity in carbon-dioxide-driven simulations, provided that the CH4 effective radiative forcing includes the rapid adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour changes.

Increase in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in the Past 100 Years Related to Tropical Atlantic Warming

AbstractLower Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) is one of important drivers of global climate change. Increases and decreases in lower SWV have been found to strengthen and offset global warming effects, respectively. Using several data sets, we find that sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the past 100 years has caused an increase in SWV. SST warming over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western Pacific has resulted in a drier stratosphere. However, tropical Atlantic Ocean warming has resulted in a significantly wetter stratosphere and is the main contributor to the increasing trend of SWV in the past 100 years. The responses of Rossby and Kelvin waves over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific to Atlantic warming have led to a warmer tropopause temperature, resulting in more water vapor entering the stratosphere. This study suggests that SWV trend may simply be the result of a game between warm pool SST and tropical Atlantic SST changes.

The Climatic Effects of Hygroscopic Growth of Sulfate Aerosols in the Stratosphere

AbstractSolar geoengineering by deliberate injection of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere is one of the proposed options to counter anthropogenic climate warming. In this study, we focus on the effect of a specific microphysical property of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere: hygroscopic growth—the tendency of particles to grow by accumulating water. We show that stratospheric sulfate aerosols, for a given mass of sulfates, cause more cooling when prescribed at the lower levels of the stratosphere because of hygroscopic growth. The larger relative humidity in the lower stratosphere causes an increase in the aerosol size through hygroscopic growth that leads to a larger scattering efficiency. In our study, hygroscopic growth provides an additional cooling of 23% (0.7 K) when 20 Mt‐SO4 of sulfate aerosols, an amount that approximately offsets the warming due to a doubling of CO2, are prescribed at 100 hPa. The hygroscopic effect becomes weaker at higher levels as relative humidity decreases with height. Hygroscopic growth also leads to secondary effects such as an increase in near‐infrared shortwave absorption by the aerosols that causes a decrease in high clouds and an increase in stratospheric water vapor. The altitude dependence of the effects of hygroscopic growth is opposite to that of sedimentation effects or the fast adjustment effects due to aerosol‐induced warming identified in a recent study.

Quasi‐Additivity of the Radiative Effects of Marine Cloud Brightening and Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Injection

AbstractStratospheric sulfate aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) are the two most studied solar radiation management techniques. For the first time we combine them in a climate model to investigate their complementarity in terms of both instantaneous and effective radiative forcings. The effective radiative forcing induced by SAI is significantly stronger than its instantaneous counterpart evaluated at the top of atmosphere. Radiative kernel calculations indicate that this occurs because of a significant stratospheric warming and despite a large increase in stratospheric water vapor that strengthens the greenhouse effect. There is also a large decrease in high‐level cloudiness induced by a stratification of the upper tropopause. Our model experiments also show that the radiative effects of SAI and MCB are quasi‐additive and have fairly complementary patterns in the Tropics. This results in less spatial and temporal variability in the radiative forcing for combined SAI and MCB as compared to MCB alone.

Improved aerosol radiative properties as a foundation for solar geoengineering risk assessment

AbstractSide effects resulting from the deliberate injection of sulfate aerosols intended to partially offset climate change have motivated the investigation of alternatives, including solid aerosol materials. Sulfate aerosols warm the tropical tropopause layer, increasing the flux of water vapor into the stratosphere, accelerating ozone loss, and increasing radiative forcing. The high refractive index of some solid materials may lead to reduction in these risks. We present a new analysis of the scattering efficiency and absorption of a range of candidate solid aerosols. We utilize a comprehensive radiative transfer model driven by updated, physically consistent estimates of optical properties. We compute the potential increase in stratospheric water vapor and associated longwave radiative forcing. We find that the stratospheric heating calculated in this analysis indicates some materials to be substantially riskier than previous work. We also find that there are Earth‐abundant materials that may reduce some principal known risks relative to sulfate aerosols.

The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model

We assess the interactions between stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and surface temperature during the past two decades using satellite observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). From 1992 to 2013, to first order, the observed SWV exhibited three distinct piece-wise trends: a steady increase from 1992 to 2000, an abrupt drop from 2000 to 2004, and a gradual recovery after 2004, while the global-mean surface temperature experienced a strong increase until 2000 and a warming hiatus after 2000. The atmosphere-only CESM shows that the seasonal variation of tropical-mean (30°S–30°N) SWV is anticorrelated with that of the tropical-mean sea surface temperature (SST), while the correlation between the tropical SWV and SST anomalies on the interannual time scale is rather weak. By nudging the modeled SWV to prescribed profiles in coupled atmosphere-slab ocean experiments, we investigate the impact of SWV variations on surface temperature change. We find that a uniform 1 ppmv (0.5 ppmv) SWV increase (decrease) leads to an equilibrium global mean surface warming (cooling) of 0.12 ± 0.05 °C (−0.07 ± 0.05 °C). Sensitivity experiments show that the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to SWV perturbations over the extratropics is larger than that over the tropics. The observed sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 produces a global mean surface cooling of about −0.048 ± 0.041 °C, which suggests that a persistent change in SWV would make an imprint on long-term variations of global-mean surface temperature. A constant linear increase in SWV based on the satellite-observed rate of SWV change yields a global mean surface warming of 0.03 ± 0.01 °C/decade over a 50-year period, which accounts for about 19 % of the observed surface temperature increase prior to the warming hiatus. In the same experiment, trend analyses during different periods reveal a multi-year adjustment of surface temperature before the response to SWV forcing becomes strong relative to the internal variability in the model.

Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry–climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

The potential impact of changes in lower stratospheric water vapour on stratospheric temperatures over the past 30 years

This study investigates the potential contribution of observed changes in lower stratospheric water vapour to stratospheric temperature variations over the past three decades using a comprehensive global climate model (GCM). Three case studies are considered. In the first, the net increase in stratospheric water vapour (SWV) from 1980–2010 (derived from the Boulder frost‐point hygrometer record using the gross assumption that this is globally representative) is estimated to have cooled the lower stratosphere by up to ∼0.2 K decade−1 in the global and annual mean; this is ∼40% of the observed cooling trend over this period. In the Arctic winter stratosphere there is a dynamical response to the increase in SWV, with enhanced polar cooling of 0.6 K decade−1 at 50 hPa and warming of 0.5 K decade−1 at 1 hPa. In the second case study, the observed decrease in tropical lower stratospheric water vapour after the year 2000 (imposed in the GCM as a simplified representation of the observed changes derived from satellite data) is estimated to have caused a relative increase in tropical lower stratospheric temperatures by ∼0.3 K at 50 hPa. In the third case study, the wintertime dehydration in the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex (again using a simplified representation of the changes seen in a satellite dataset) is estimated to cause a relative warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere by up to 1 K at 100 hPa from July–October. This is accompanied by a weakening of the westerly winds on the poleward flank of the stratospheric jet by up to 1.5 m s−1 in the GCM. The results show that, if the measurements are representative of global variations, SWV should be considered as important a driver of transient and long‐term variations in lower stratospheric temperature over the past 30 years as increases in long‐lived greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion.

The Circulation Response to Idealized Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapor

Abstract Observations show that stratospheric water vapor (SWV) concentrations increased by ~30% between 1980 and 2000. SWV has also been projected to increase by up to a factor of 2 over the twenty-first century. Trends in SWV impact stratospheric temperatures, which may lead to changes in the stratospheric circulation. Perturbations in temperature and wind in the stratosphere have been shown to influence the extratropical tropospheric circulation. This study investigates the response to a uniform doubling in SWV from 3 to 6 ppmv in a comprehensive stratosphere-resolving atmospheric GCM. The increase in SWV causes stratospheric cooling with a maximum amplitude of 5–6 K in the polar lower stratosphere and 2–3 K in the tropical lower stratosphere. The zonal wind on the upper flanks of the subtropical jets is more westerly by up to ~5 m s−1. Changes in resolved wave drag in the stratosphere result in an increase in the strength of tropical upwelling associated with the Brewer–Dobson circulation of ~10% throughout the year. In the troposphere, the increase in SWV causes significant meridional dipole changes in the midlatitude zonal-mean zonal wind of up to 2.8 m s−1 at 850 hPa, which are largest in boreal winter in both hemispheres. This suggests a more poleward storm track under uniformly increased stratospheric water vapor. The circulation changes in both the stratosphere and troposphere are almost entirely due to the increase in SWV at pressures greater than 50 hPa. The results show that long-term trends in SWV may impact stratospheric temperatures and wind, the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and extratropical surface climate.

Revisiting the lower stratospheric water vapour trend from the 1950s to 1970s

Previous work showed a near-continuous increase in stratospheric water vapour between the 1950s and 1990s from a variety of instruments, without recourse to fits between instruments. We reassess the trend from the earliest, the UK frost-point hygrometer, 1954–1976. An error in previous work omitted to transform values from ppmm to ppmv. When corrected, they fit more convincingly with measurements by later frost-point hygrometers. Minor instrument changes between the 1950s and 1970s do not introduce a potential bias to the trend but do increase its error. If the full 1970s data are included, the trend becomes 2.1 ± 0.8%/year (two-sigma). Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

The temperature response to stratospheric water vapour changes

AbstractThis study uses an analytical model, based on the cooling‐to‐space approximation, and a fixed dynamical heating model to investigate the structure of the stratospheric cooling that occurs in response to a uniform increase in stratospheric water vapour (SWV). At all latitudes, the largest cooling occurs in the lower stratosphere and decreases in magnitude with height. The cooling is strongly enhanced in the Extratropics compared to the Tropics. This is markedly different to the case of an increase in CO2, which causes maximum cooling near the stratopause and a small warming in the tropical lower stratosphere. The qualitative differences in the structure of the cooling can be explained by the smaller opacity of water vapour bands in the stratosphere compared to CO2. The small opacity means that the magnitude of the initial heating rate perturbation only decreases by a factor of four between the upper and lower stratosphere for a SWV perturbation. Therefore, to balance the heating rate perturbation, the largest temperature change is required in the lower stratosphere. Increasing the background concentration of SWV causes the water vapour bands to become more opaque. For a SWV perturbation applied to a background SWV concentration ≥30 ppmv, the heating rate perturbation and temperature change structurally resemble those from an increase in CO2. In the Extratropics, the lower height of the tropopause is found to cause the enhancement in the cooling at those latitudes. By controlling the depth of atmosphere which adjusts to the SWV perturbation, the tropopause height affects the net exchange of radiation between the layers in the stratosphere as they cool. The latitudinal gradient in upwelling infrared radiation at the tropopause and variations in the background temperature are found to have only a minor effect on the structure of the stratospheric temperature response to a change in SWV. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Evolution of Water Vapor Concentrations and Stratospheric Age of Air in Coupled Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Stratospheric water vapor concentrations and age of air are investigated in an ensemble of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the period from 1960 to 2005. Observed greenhouse gas concentrations, halogen concentrations, aerosol amounts, and sea surface temperatures are all specified in the model as time-varying fields. The results are compared with two experiments (time-slice runs) with constant forcings for the years 1960 and 2000, in which the sea surface temperatures are set to the same climatological values, aerosol concentrations are fixed at background levels, while greenhouse gas and halogen concentrations are set to the values for the relevant years. The time-slice runs indicate an increase in stratospheric water vapor from 1960 to 2000 due primarily to methane oxidation. The age of air is found to be significantly less in the year 2000 run than the 1960 run. The transient runs from 1960 to 2005 indicate broadly similar results: an increase in water vapor and a decrease in age of air. However, the results do not change gradually. The age of air decreases significantly only after about 1975, corresponding to the period of ozone reduction. The age of air is related to tropical upwelling, which determines the transport of methane into the stratosphere. Oxidation of increased methane from enhanced tropical upwelling results in higher water vapor amounts. In the model simulations, the rate of increase of stratospheric water vapor during the period of enhanced upwelling is up to twice the long-term mean. The concentration of stratospheric water vapor also increases following volcanic eruptions during the simulations.

Simulation of stratospheric water vapor trends: impact on stratospheric ozone chemistry

Abstract. A transient model simulation of the 40-year time period 1960 to 1999 with the coupled climate-chemistry model (CCM) ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM shows a stratospheric water vapor increase over the last two decades of 0.7 ppmv and, additionally, a short-term increase after major volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, a long-term decrease in global total ozone as well as a short-term ozone decline in the tropics after volcanic eruptions are modeled. In order to understand the resulting effects of the water vapor changes on lower stratospheric ozone chemistry, different perturbation simulations were performed with the CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM feeding the water vapor perturbations only to the chemistry part. Two different long-term perturbations of lower stratospheric water vapor, +1 ppmv and +5 ppmv, and a short-term perturbation of +2 ppmv with an e-folding time of two months were applied. An additional stratospheric water vapor amount of 1 ppmv results in a 5–10% OH increase in the tropical lower stratosphere between 100 and 30 hPa. As a direct consequence of the OH increase the ozone destruction by the HOx cycle becomes 6.4% more effective. Coupling processes between the HOx-family and the NOx/ClOx-family also affect the ozone destruction by other catalytic reaction cycles. The NOx cycle becomes 1.6% less effective, whereas the effectiveness of the ClOx cycle is again slightly enhanced. A long-term water vapor increase does not only affect gas-phase chemistry, but also heterogeneous ozone chemistry in polar regions. The model results indicate an enhanced heterogeneous ozone depletion during antarctic spring due to a longer PSC existence period. In contrast, PSC formation in the northern hemisphere polar vortex and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion during arctic spring are not affected by the water vapor increase, because of the less PSC activity. Finally, this study shows that 10% of the global total ozone decline in the transient model run can be explained by the modeled water vapor increase, but the simulated tropical ozone decrease after volcanic eruptions is caused dynamically rather than chemically.

Shortwave radiative forcing by stratospheric water vapor

It is shown that most previous estimates of radiative forcing due to increased stratospheric water vapor have been overestimates because most broad‐band radiation schemes underestimate the (negative) shortwave component. This paper compares line‐by‐line calculations of shortwave forcing with those of five broad and multiple band radiation schemes, including a new parameterization of water vapor absorption which reduces the errors to within 3%. The results of two‐dimensional model experiments indicate that the magnitude of the shortwave forcing should be approximately doubled, relative to previous estimates. As a result, estimates of global average net radiative forcing due to stratospheric water vapor increase should be decreased by approximately 10%.

Radiative cooling by stratospheric water vapor: Big differences in GCM results

The stratosphere has been cooling by about 2K/decade at 30–60 km over the past several decades and by lesser amounts toward the tropopause. Climate model calculations suggest that stratospheric water vapor is an important contributor to the observed stratospheric cooling, but there are large differences among recent GCM simulations for prescribed changes in stratospheric water vapor, which point to problems with the current GCM treatment of the absorption and emission by stratospheric water vapor. We show that the correlated k‐distribution treatment with sufficient resolution is capable of simulating accurately cooling by stratospheric water vapor. We obtain equilibrium cooling of about 0.3K that extends from 20 km to the top of the atmosphere, and adjusted radiative forcing of 0.12 Wm−2, for a stratospheric water vapor increase of 0.7 ppmv which has been estimated for the period 1979–1997.

Stratospheric water vapor increases over the past half‐century

Ten data sets covering the period 1954–2000 are analyzed to show a 1%/yr increase in stratospheric water vapor. The trend has persisted for at least 45 years, hence is unlikely the result of a single event, but rather indicative of long‐term climate change. A long‐term change in the transport of water vapor into the stratosphere is the most probable cause.