Increase In Specific Humidity Research Articles

High‐Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region Using the Pseudo‐Global Warming Method With a CMIP6 Ensemble

AbstractThe strong drying expected in the Eastern Mediterranean with climate change could cause mass migration of people already living under water shortages. On the other hand, precipitation is expected to increase toward the region’s north, particularly those along the interior of the eastern Black Sea coasts, which could worsen existing floods. However, this double‐sided adverse phenomenon and its underlying reasons have been investigated by relatively low‐resolution models in the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea (EMBS) region, where orographic precipitation prevails. This study performs 4 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations with and without climate change signals retrieved from a CMIP6 GCM ensemble via pseudo‐global‐warming (PGW). The WRF simulations captured the large‐scale dynamics affecting the EMBS fairly well: an anticyclonic low‐level circulation and enhancing subsidence stem from anomalous ridge development over the central Mediterranean in winter (DJF), and a cyclonic low‐level circulation and weakening subsidence rise from heat‐low development over the Eastern Mediterranean in summer (JJA). The resulting picture of future warming and drying over the area generally supports the literature, although new insights emerge in anomalous precipitation increase, especially in the summer season over the Greater Caucasus and nearby regions. Most likely, the warmer‐than‐expected Caspian Sea induces a large increase in specific humidity and, thus, a large moisture source in the lower troposphere and an extension of the heat‐low effect in the mid‐troposphere. In addition, the high‐resolution WRF simulations provide added value over the complex topography of the Caucasian Mountain range for new insights into this region.

Satellite-Based Estimation of the Role of Cloud-Radiative Interaction in Accelerating Tropical Cyclone Development

Abstract Recent modeling studies have suggested a potentially important role of cloud-radiative interactions in accelerating tropical cyclone (TC) development, but there has been only limited investigation of this in observations. Here, we investigate this by performing radiative transfer calculations based on cloud property retrievals from the CloudSat Tropical Cyclone (CSTC) dataset. We examine the radius-height structure of radiative heating anomalies, compute the resulting radiatively-driven circulations, and use the moist static energy variance budget to compute radiative feedbacks. We find that inner-core mid-level ice water content and anomalous specific humidity increase with TC intensification rate, resulting in enhanced inner-core deep-layer longwave warming anomalies and shortwave cooling anomalies in rapidly-intensifying TCs. This leads to a stronger radiatively-driven deep in-up-and-out overturning circulation and inner-core radiative feedback in rapidly-intensifying TCs. The longwave-driven circulation provides radially inward momentum fluxes and upward moisture fluxes which benefit TC development, while the shortwave-driven circulation suppresses TC development. The longwave anomalies, which dominate the inner-core positive radiative feedback, are mainly generated from cloud-radiative interactions, with ice particles dominating the deep-layer circulation and liquid droplets and water vapor contributing to the shallow circulation. Moreover, the variability in ice water content, as opposed to variability in liquid water content and the effective radii of ice particles and liquid droplets, dominates the uncertainty in TC-radiative interaction. These results provide observational evidence for the importance of cloud-radiative interactions in TC development and suggest that the amount and spatial structure of ice water content is critical for determining the strength of this interaction.

An Unexpected Decline in Spring Atmospheric Humidity in the Interior Southwestern United States and Implications for Forest Fires

Abstract On seasonal time scales, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a known predictor of burned area in the southwestern United States (“the Southwest”). VPD increases with atmospheric warming due to the exponential relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure. Another control on VPD is specific humidity, such that increases in specific humidity can counteract temperature-driven increases in VPD. Unexpectedly, despite the increased capacity of a warmer atmosphere to hold water vapor, near-surface specific humidity decreased from 1970 to 2019 in much of the Southwest, particularly in spring, summer, and fall. Here, we identify declining near-surface humidity from 1970 to 2019 in the southwestern United States with both reanalysis and in situ station data. Focusing on the interior Southwest in the months preceding the summer forest fire season, we explain the decline in terms of changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture fluxes between the surface and the atmosphere. We find that an early spring decline in precipitation in the interior region induced a decline in soil moisture and evapotranspiration, drying the lower troposphere in summer. This prior season precipitation decline is in turn related to a trend toward a Northern Hemisphere stationary wave pattern. Finally, using fixed humidity scenarios and the observed exponential relationship between VPD and burned forest area, we estimate that with no increase in temperature at all, the humidity decline alone would still lead to nearly one-quarter of the observed VPD-induced increase in burned area over 1984–2019. Significance Statement Burned forest area has increased significantly in the southwestern United States in recent decades, driven in part by an increase in atmospheric aridity [vapor pressure deficit (VPD)]. Increases in VPD can be caused by a combination of increasing temperature and decreasing specific humidity. As the atmosphere warms with climate change, its capacity to hold moisture increases. Despite this, there is a decrease in near-surface air humidity in the interior southwestern United States over 1970–2019, which during the summer is likely caused by a decline in early spring precipitation leading to limited soil moisture and evaporation in spring and summer. We estimate that this declining humidity alone, without an increase in temperature, would cause about one-quarter of the VPD-induced increase in burned forest area in this region over 1984–2019.

Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century

Abstract. When anticyclonic conditions persist over mountainous regions in winter, cold-air pools (i.e. thermal inversions) develop in valleys and persist from a few days to a few weeks. During these persistent cold-air pool (PCAP) episodes the atmosphere inside the valley is stable and vertical mixing is prevented, promoting the accumulation of pollutants close to the valley bottom and worsening air quality. The purpose of this paper is to address the impact of climate change on PCAPs until the end of this century for the alpine Grenoble valleys. The long-term projections produced with the general circulation model MPI (from the Max Planck Institute) downscaled over the Alps with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) are used to perform a statistical study of PCAPs over the period 1981–2100. The trends of the main characteristics of PCAPs, namely their intensity, duration, and frequency, are investigated for two future scenarios, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. We find that the intensity of PCAPs displays a statistically significant decreasing trend for the SSP5–8.5 scenario only. This decay is explained by the fact that air temperature over the century increases more at 2 m above the valley bottom than in the free air at mid-altitudes in the valley; this might be due to the increase of specific humidity near the ground. The vertical structure of two PCAPs, one in the past and one around 2050, is next investigated in detail. For this purpose, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model, forced by MAR for the worst-case scenario (SSP5–8.5), is used at a high resolution (111 m). The PCAP episodes are carefully selected from the MAR data so that a meaningful comparison can be performed. The future episode is warmer at all altitudes than the past episode (by at least 4 ∘C) and displays a similar inversion height, which are very likely generic features of future PCAPs. The selected episodes also have similar along-valley wind but different stability, with the future episode being more stable than the past episode. Overall, this study shows that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during PCAP episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, but that very stable PCAPs can still form.

Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale

In this study, we have investigated changes in precipitation extremes and the population’s exposure to these extremes during 2091–2099 in China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (JJJ) region relative to the historical period of 1991–1999. First, the regional climate model RegCM4, with a hydrostatic dynamic core, was run for east Asia, including China, at a 12 km resolution for 1990–1999 and 2090–2099. This model is forced by global climate model (GCM) MPI-ESM1.2-HR under the middle shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245). The first year was used as a model spinup. Then, the 12 km results were used to force RegCM4 with a non-hydrostatic dynamic core (RegcM4-NH) at a 3 km convection-permitting scale over the JJJ region during the historical and future periods. Future precipitation extremes were predicted to increase over the whole of China and its four subregions, while decreases were predicted over the JJJ region. This may partly be caused by lower increases in specific humidity over the JJJ region. The percentage contributions of the three components of total population exposure, i.e., changes in exposure due to changes in the population, precipitation extremes and the joint impact of the population and extremes, were then analyzed. Changes in the population and wet extremes were closely related to changes in the total exposure over the JJJ region. The population is the dominant factor that most impacts the total exposure to dry extremes. Finally, changes in future population exposure to precipitation extremes per degree of warming were quantified for the JJJ region.

Large humidity effects on urban heat exposure and cooling challenges under climate change

Many urban climates are characterized by increased temperature and decreased relative humidity, under climate change and compared to surrounding rural landscapes. The two trends have contrasting effects on human-perceived heat stress. However, their combined impact on urban humid heat and adaptation has remained largely unclear. Here, we use simulations from an earth system model to investigate how urbanization coupled with climate change affects urban humid heat stress, exposure, and adaptation. Our results show that urban humid heat will increase substantially across the globe by 3.1 °C by the end of the century under a high emission scenario. This projected trend is largely attributed to climate change-driven increases in specific humidity (1.8 °C), followed by air temperature (1.4 °C)—with urbanization impacts varying by location and of a smaller magnitude. Urban humid heat stress is projected to be concentrated in coastal, equatorial areas. At least 44% of the projected urban population in 2100, the equivalent of over 3 billion people worldwide, is projected to be living in an urban area with high humid heat stress. We show a critical, climate-driven dilemma between cooling efficacy and water limitation of urban greenery-based heat adaptation. Insights from our study emphasize the importance of using urban-explicit humid heat measures for more accurate assessments of urban heat exposure and invite careful evaluation of the feasibility of green infrastructure as a long-term cooling strategy.

Diverging Global Dry and Humid Heat Responses to Modern Irrigation

Abstract The moderating influence of irrigation on dry heat extremes is well established, but the effect of irrigation on humid heat is more uncertain. Here, we study the impact of modern irrigation on both dry and humid heat-wave occurrences during the boreal summer using the NASA GISS Earth System Model (ModelE) with and without present-day irrigation. We show that the presence of modern irrigation reduces the total number of dry heat waves in most land areas, especially in arid and temperate regions. In contrast, humid heat waves occur more frequently under modern irrigation, especially in the Mediterranean Sea region, northern Africa, southern Africa, and the Middle East. Present-day irrigation reduces dry heat extremes by favoring latent heating over sensible heating and lowering surface solar radiation by increasing total cloud cover. Meanwhile, modern irrigation drives increases in humid heat through increases in specific humidity and precipitation. Notably, the reduction in dry heat is mostly localized over irrigated grid cells while humid heat increases both in locally irrigated areas and remote (nonirrigated) regions because of widespread increases in humidity associated with irrigation. Our results suggest that irrigation may amplify humid heat, even in nonirrigated areas, highlighting the importance of improving our understanding of both local and remote effects of the irrigation forcing on climate hazards.

Effect of climate on surgical site infections and anticipated increases in the United States

Surgical site infections (SSI) are one of the most common and costly hospital-acquired infections in the United States. Meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation may represent a neglected group of risk factors for SSI. Using a national private insurance database, we collected admission and follow-up records for National Healthcare Safety Network-monitored surgical procedures and associated climate conditions from 2007 to 2014. We found that every 10 cm increase of maximum daily precipitation resulted in a 1.09 odds increase in SSI after discharge, while every g/kg unit increase in specific humidity resulted in a 1.03 odds increase in SSI risk after discharge. We identified the Southeast region of the United States at highest risk of climate change-related SSI, with an estimated 3% increase in SSI by 2060 under high emission assumptions. Our results describe the effect of climate on SSI and the potential burden of climate-change related SSI in the United States.

Evaluation of Atmospheric Features in Natural Disasters due Frontal Systems over Southern Brazil

This study evaluated the atmospheric pattern precursors to the occurrence of natural disasters (ND) in the southern region of Brazil (SRB) due to the passage of frontal systems (FS). The results can be used as prognostics to assist in risk management with a set of preventive and mitigating actions in order to minimize the impact of natural disasters suffered by the population. The natural disasters data were provided by the Centro de monitoramento e alertas de desastres naturais (Cemaden). For atmospheric analysis we used ERA5 reanalysis data, and the precipitation dataset was estimated from Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The most affected regions are the coast of Santa Catarina and the central-eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. The results indicate that FS associated with ND are different from the other FS that affect the SRB. The observations were: a pattern of increase and accumulation of available convective potential energy west of the SRB before the event, especially in spring; a considerable increase in specific humidity at low levels associated with runoff east of the Andes; and an anticyclonic circulation at high levels similar to the Bolivian High. Analysis of rainfall behavior indicates that it is highest in the two days preceding the disaster. The mean precipitation values identified, together with atmospheric behavior observed in this study, allow us to identify the potential occurrence of a disaster in the cities of SRB in the passage of a frontal system.

General circulation and global heat transport in a quadrupling CO2 pulse experiment

To investigate the response of the general circulation and global transport of heat through both atmosphere and ocean to two-types of carbon dioxide removal scenario, we performed an earth system model experiment in which we imposed a pulse-type quadrupling of CO2 forcing for 50 years and a gradual peak-and-decline of four-time CO2 forcing. We found that the results from two experiments are qualitatively similar to each other. During the forcing-on period, a dominant warming in the upper troposphere over the tropics and on the surface at high latitudes led to a slowdown in the Hadley circulation, but the poleward atmospheric energy transport was enhanced due to an increase in specific humidity. This counteracted the reduction in poleward oceanic energy transport owing to the suppression of the meridional overturning circulation in both Hemispheres. After returning the original CO2 level, the hemispheric thermal contrast was reversed, causing a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. To reduce the hemispheric thermal contrast, the northward energy transports in the atmosphere and ocean surface were enhanced while further weakening of the global-scale Atlantic meridional overturning circulation led to southward energy transport in the deep ocean.

A Multidataset Assessment of Climatic Drivers and Uncertainties of Recent Trends in Evaporative Demand across the Continental United States

AbstractIncreased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in driving evaporative demand and its trend, other climate variables are also influential and their contributions to recent trends in evaporative demand are unknown. We address this gap with an assessment of recent (1980–2020) trends in annual reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its drivers across the continental United States based on five gridded datasets. In doing so, we characterize the structural uncertainty of ETo trends and decompose the relative influences of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity. Results highlight large and robust changes in ETo across much of the western United States, centered on the Rio Grande region where ETo increased 135–235 mm during 1980–2020. The largest uncertainties in ETo trends are in the central and eastern United States and surrounding the Upper Colorado River. Trend decomposition highlights the strong and widespread influence of temperature, which contributes to 57% of observed ETo trends, on average. ETo increases are mitigated by increases in specific humidity in non-water-limited regions, while small decreases in specific humidity and increases in wind speed and solar radiation magnify ETo increases across the West. Our results show increases in ETo across the West that are already emerging outside the range of variability observed 20–40 years ago. Our results suggest that twenty-first-century land and water managers need to plan for an already increasing influence of evaporative demand on water availability and wildfire risks.Significance StatementIncreased atmospheric thirst due to climate warming has the potential to decrease water availability and increase wildfire risks in water-scarce regions. Here, we identified how much atmospheric thirst has changed across the continental United States over the past 40 years, what climate variables are driving the change, and how consistent these changes are among five data sources. We found that atmospheric thirst is consistently emerging outside the range experienced in the late twentieth century in some western regions with 57% of the change driven by temperature. Importantly, we demonstrate that increased atmospheric thirst has already become a persistent forcing of western landscapes and water supplies toward drought and will be an essential consideration for land and water management planning going forward.

Integrated water vapor over the Arctic: Comparison between radiosondes and sun photometer observations

The amplification of global warming because of the feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and the decrease in sea ice and snow cover in the Arctic is currently the focus of scientists, policy makers and society. The amplification of global warming is the response to increases in precipitation originally caused by climate change. Arctic predominant increases in specific humidity and precipitation have been documented by observations. In comparison, evapotranspiration in the Arctic is poorly known, in part, because the spatial and temporal sparsity of accurate in situ and remote sensing observations. Although more than 20 observations sites in the Arctic are available, where AERONET sun photometer integrated water vapor (IWV) measurements have been conducted, that information have been barely used. Here, we present a comparison of IWV observations from radiosondes and AERONET sun photometers at ten sites located across the Arctic with the goal to document the feasibility of that set of observations to contribute to the ongoing and future research on polar regions. Sun photometer IWV observations are averaged for three-time windows; 30 min, 6 and 24 h. The predominant dry bias of AERONET IWV observations with respect to radiosondes, identified at tropical and midlatitudes, is also present in the Arctic. The statistics of the comparison show robust results at eight of the ten sites, with precision and accuracy magnitudes below 8 and 2% respectively. The possible causes of the less robust results at the other two sites are discussed. In addition, the impact of selecting other temporal coincidence windows in the average sun photometer IWV used in the comparison were tested. Auto-correlation in diurnal sun photometer IWV could produce appreciable bias in the statistics used for the comparison. We suggest using only one pair of values per day, consisting in the daily mean IWV sun photometer and the IWV radiosonde observation value. This feature should be valid also for comparison of IWV from sun photometer and other instruments. Maximum 10% error level of IWV from sun photometer observations, when compared with radiosondes, have been found for the Arctic. It is in the same order of magnitude than at tropical and middle latitudes locations. It has been demonstrated the feasibility of AERONET IWV observations in the Arctic for research on this variable. AERONET standard instruments and its centralized-standard processing algorithm allow its IWV observations to be considered a relative standard dataset for the re-calibration of other instrumental IWV observations assuming radiosondes as the absolute standard dataset.

Understanding the uncertainty of the long‐term precipitation trend under global warming through the water cycle

AbstractIt is certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the industrial revolution because of the greenhouse gas emissions. The water vapour content of air increases as the climate warms. However, there is nonsignificant long‐term trend in global‐scale precipitation. This study aims to investigate the sources of the uncertainty of the long‐term precipitation trend under global warming through the water cycle. The data of the historical simulations (1850–2005) from 30 CMIP5 models are used in the estimate. The p‐value is utilized to indicate the significance of the long‐term trend of the water‐vapour‐related variable in the water cycle as well as the air temperature near surface and at the condensation level. For each variable, the p‐value is calculated for each of the grid points. The overall spatial distribution patterns of the p‐values are compared between two variables that linked directly, and a point‐to‐point comparison is also performed to the two fields. Results show that over the globe, the near‐surface specific humidity increases significantly at most of the grid points while the increase of the specific humidity at the condensation level is significant at some, and, however, the long‐term trend of the relative humidity at the condensation level is majorly nonsignificant. This suggests that as assessed from the global grid points, the uncertainty of the long‐term trend of the water‐vapour‐related variable enlarges substantially in the process of condensation, and modestly in the process of the transport of water vapour. Therefore, the uncertainty of the long‐term precipitation trend under global warming is mainly attributed to the condensation and slightly due to the transport of water vapour. The results obtained from the 30 models are consistent with each other, which supports the reliability of the conclusion.

Caribbean Low‐Level Jet future projections using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4 configurations

AbstractA multiparameter ensemble generated by four configurations of the regional model RegCM4 using different cumulus parameterizations and driven by the HadGEM2‐ES global model is used to project changes in the Caribbean wind field, with the focus on the Caribbean Low‐Level Jet (CLLJ). Two scenarios are considered, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The CLLJ shows a strengthening (weakening) during the summer (winter) months compared to present day conditions in both a near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) time slice, with an eastward and northward expansion (contraction) in the core region. The warmer conditions produce an increase in specific humidity and an intensified moisture flux from the lower to the middle atmosphere in correspondence of the jet intensification. This occurs as a result of an expansion (contraction) of the North Atlantic Subtropical High of about +2 hPa (−2 hPa) into the Caribbean. All the changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level with a consensus across all the ensemble members.

The Impacts of Soil Moisture Initialization on the Forecasts of Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study in Xinjiang, China

Soil moisture is a critical parameter in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models because it plays a fundamental role in the exchange of water and energy cycles between the atmosphere and the land surface through evaporation. To improve the forecast skills of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in Xinjiang, China, this study investigated the impacts of soil moisture initialization on the WRF forecasts by performing a series of simulations. A group of simulations was conducted using the single-column model (SCM) from 1200 UTC on 15 to 18 August 2019, at Urumchi, Xinjiang (43.78° N, 87.6° E); another was performed using the WRF model for a real weather case in Xinjiang from 0000 UTC 15 August to 1200 UTC 18 August 2019, which included an episode of heavy precipitation and gales. Our most notable findings are as follows. Specific humidity increases and potential temperature decreases persistently when soil moisture increases because of soil water evaporation. Soil moisture initialization could impact the energy budget and modulate the partition of the total available energy at the land surface significantly through evaporation and the greenhouse effect. Replacing the soil moisture with a proper multiple of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) soil moisture data could significantly improve the critical success index (CSI) and frequency bias (FBIAS) of precipitation and the root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) of 2-m specific humidity and 2-m temperature. These findings indicate the prospect of a new way to improve the forecast skills of WRF in Xinjiang or other similar regions.

Future atmospheric circulations benefit ozone pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei with global warming

Surface ozone pollution has become increasingly serious in recent years. Ozone pollution will damage human health and reducing social productivity in China. Basing on an ozone weather index (OWI) that captured the effects of climate on the ground-level ozone, large ensemble simulations by the Community Earth System Model were introduced to project future impacts of atmospheric circulation on ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in late-21st century. In the future, atmospheric circulations will favour the control of ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The OWI decreased overall during the 21st century, which was nearly ignored by other studies on ozone projections. The OWI decrease was mainly due to the increase in regional precipitation and partly due to the changes of wind and the temperature difference between 200 hPa and lower-troposphere. The increased total precipitation in the 21st century, mainly due to the increase in convectional precipitation, weakened the production of surface ozone by its shading effect (related to more cloud cover) and wet deposition impact. During 2061–2100, the South Asia High will move southward, and the west Pacific subtropical high will shift eastward; thus, the convergence of water vapour will mainly occur in South China. Consequently, the large-scale precipitation will decrease over northern China. However, because of climate warming, the increase in specific humidity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH) will enhance convectional precipitation, which will be more than 4 times the decrease in large-scale precipitation.

Atmospheric River Signatures in Radiosonde Profiles and Reanalyses at the Dronning Maud Land Coast, East Antarctica

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are an important component of the hydrological cycle linking moisture sources in lower latitudes to the Antarctic surface mass balance. We investigate AR signatures in the atmospheric vertical profiles at the Dronning Maud Land coast, East Antarctica, using regular and extra radiosonde measurements conducted during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period November 2018 to February 2019. Prominent AR events affecting the locations of Neumayer and Syowa cause a strong increase in specific humidity extending through the mid-troposphere and a strong low-level jet (LLJ). At Neumayer, the peak in the moisture inversion (up to 4 g kg−1) is observed between 800 and 900 hPa, while the LLJ (up to 32 m s−1) is concentrated below 900 hPa. At Syowa the increase in humidity is less pronounced and peaks near the surface, while there is a substantial increase in wind speed (up to 40 m s−1) between 825 and 925 hPa. Moisture transport (MT) within the vertical profile during the ARs attains a maximum of 100 g kg−1 m s−1 at both locations, and is captured by both ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis data at Neumayer, but is strongly underestimated at Syowa. Composites of the enhanced MT events during 2009-19 show that these events represent an extreme state of the lower-tropospheric profile compared to its median values with respect to temperature, humidity, wind speed and, consequently, MT. High temporal- and vertical-resolution radiosonde observations are important for understanding the contribution of these rare events to the total MT towards Antarctica and improving their representation in models.

Deciphering the extreme rainfall scenario over Indian landmass using satellite observations, reanalysis and model forecast: Case studies

Abstract In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of extreme rainfall of different intensities (heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy) as well as wet spell over the Indian landmass during monsoon (June–August) of 2016–2018 through satellite observations. Moreover, there were ~ 35 extreme rainfall events during the study period, which has accumulated rainfall > 120 mm hr−1 and the first 12 events were identified (having highest amount of accumulated rainfall in a day out of 35 events) for our study. The event locations were so selected where there is not any point observations [automatic weather station (AWS) or automatic rain gauge (ARG)] at the site of extreme rainfall events, not even within 50 km radius of the event site or if any AWS/ARG site is present but were unrecorded or unreported during the time of extreme rainfall event. 70% of the extreme rainfall events (convective storms) occurred in the afternoon where 75% of the events indicates > 150 mm hr−1 accumulated rainfall and the rest 25% shows the accumulation rate to be > 120 mm hr−1. The factors influencing the extreme rainfall events to occur are obtained to be increased instability parameters (convective available potential energy, K-Index, Total Total's index), meteorological, thermodynamic and dynamical parameters (upper and lower level temperature gradient difference, vertical difference of equivalent potential temperature at 850 and 500 hPa, moisture flux convergence) and decreased temperature saturation deficit. The convective growth started initiating 6–7 h before the occurrence of extreme rainfall, indicating the favourable condition for severe convection. Furthermore, if the diurnal relative humidity range is maximum and there is a sharp increase in specific humidity at a location, there is a maximum probability of extreme rainfall after 5–6 h at that location. Both the Global Forecast System (GFS) and NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) captured the extreme rainfall events well for the year 2018 over the Indian region.

Modification of surface energy balance during springtime: The relative importance of biophysical and meteorological changes

In ecosystems characterized by strong seasonality in leaf area, the emergence of leaves during springtime modifies land surface energy balance by altering surface biophysical properties during a period when atmospheric conditions are also changing. However, the relative importance and interactions among surface biophysical and atmospheric variables in modifying the surface energy balance are not well understood. In this study, we use a physically-based attribution method to quantify the relative importance of covarying surface biophysical and atmospheric variables in modifying the surface energy balance during springtime. Results show that the widely observed decrease in the Bowen ratio that occurs with leaf emergence is not solely attributable to the sharp decrease in surface resistance caused by increasing leaf area. Rather, decreases in the Bowen ratio reflect the combined effects of changes in surface properties and atmospheric conditions. Specifically, decreasing surface resistance and increasing air temperature both act to reduce the Bowen ratio, while concurrent increases in specific humidity provide a negative feedback that constrains evaporative fluxes. In parallel, aerodynamic resistance tends to increase after leaf emergence largely because wind speed tends to decrease during springtime. These findings provide a refined characterization of surface energy balance dynamics during springtime when both surface and atmospheric conditions are changing rapidly and reveal previously understudied properties of the near-surface atmosphere that influence surface Bowen ratio and aerodynamic resistance.

Possible causes of the significant decrease in the number of summer days with light rain in the east of southwestern China

Abstract In this paper, we investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of the amount of light rain and the number of days with light rain in the ESWC and explored the possible causes of the significant decrease in the number of days with light rain. The results show that: (1) Both the amount of light rain and the number of days with light rain over the ESWC in summer showed a decreasing trend, with linear trends of −1.5 mm/decade and −0.88 day/decade, respectively. The decrease in the number of days with light rain was more distinct than the decrease in the amount of light rain. (2) The decrease in the number of days with light rain was closely related to the decrease in the relative humidity caused by an increase in temperature and specific humidity. The trend in relative humidity resulting from an increase in temperature alone was −1.1%/decade, whereas the trend in relative humidity caused by an increase in specific humidity alone was 0.29%/decade. The trend in relative humidity was −0.76%/decade. The decrease in relative humidity was mainly a result of an increase in temperature. (3) The increase in temperature resulted in a decrease in the relative humidity and an increase in the surface evaporation. The increase in evaporation increased the specific humidity, which, in turn, increased the relative humidity. This compensated for the decrease in the relative humidity caused by the increase in the temperature and further decelerated the decrease in the number of days with light rain.