Increase In Short Interest Research Articles

The Influence of Short Selling on Negative Press Coverage of Firms

We hypothesize that after a relaxation of short selling constraints, an escalation in short selling activity will heighten incentives for short sellers to accelerate price discovery by revealing their negative information. Consistent with this conjecture, we find that the overall sentiment of media coverage tilts significantly more negative for pilot relative to control firms following exogenous relief of short sale constraints. We find a more pronounced effect for media-initiated articles relative to firm-initiated press releases. Further, following abnormal increases in short interest, there is a significantly greater increase in negative news flow for pilot relative to nonpilot firms. Finally, we find that stock returns of firms with lower short selling constraints become significantly more sensitive to negative news reports. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accounting. Funding: The authors acknowledge the financial support of the Kenan-Flagler Business School and the Naveen Jindal School of Management. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4783 .

Short Selling Activity and Future Returns: Evidence from FinTech Data

We use a novel dataset from a leading FinTech company (S3 Partners) to study the ability of short interest to predict the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. We find that short interest (i.e. the quantity of shares shorted expressed as the fraction of shares outstanding) is a bearish indicator, consistent with theoretical predictions and with the intuition that short sellers are informed traders. The hedged portfolio long (short) in the top (bottom) short-interest decile generates an annual 4-Factor Fama-French alfa of -7.6% when weighting stocks equally and of -6.24% when weighting stocks based on market capitalization. Conditioning on past returns improves the predictive accuracy of short interest: the hedged short-interest portfolio that only uses stocks that appreciated the most in the past six months generates an alfa of -17.88%. Multivariate regressions that control for other known drivers of stock returns (e.g. size, value and liquidity) confirm the validity of these findings. In both Fama-MacBeth and Panel regressions we find that a one standard deviation increase in short interest predicts a drop in future adjusted returns of between 4.3% and 9.3%.

Implications of Short Selling for Corporate Finance

Corporate managers often view short sellers as market manipulators whose actions drive their company's stock price below intrinsic value. But recent academic research suggests that some short sellers are effective in processing publicly available information and that their short selling may provide useful information to market participants. This article summarizes the authors’ own published research, which provides evidence of informed short selling by linking it to changes in corporate fundamentals.More specifically, the authors’ findings indicate that increases in short interest are reliable indicators of an economically (as well as statistically) significant decline in a company's operating performance over the following three years. And when examining changes in short interest around announcements of seasoned equity offerings, the authors also find a negative relation between an increase in short interest and future operating performance. In addition, they find that the greater the increase in short interest in the period leading up to the SEO announcement, the more negative is the stock‐price response to the announcement itself.The authors’ findings suggest that corporate managers can benefit from monitoring the short‐selling activity in their company's stock. Short‐selling data can be used to reassess corporate strategy or rethink major corporate decisions that have been announced but not carried out, and take preemptive actions to forestall impending future declines in performance and so preserve value.

Equity Short Selling and the Cost of Debt

Empirical evidence suggests that short sales have pertinent information about firm fundamentals. If so, then information from short selling in liquid equity markets can be informative for infrequently traded corporate bonds. The adverse information conveyed by short interest should mean higher cost of debt. Using a large sample of corporate bonds, we examine whether lagged equity short interest affects credit spreads. Highly shorted firms do experience wider credit spreads in the subsequent months. Moreover, the increase in short interest leads to higher credit spreads. Short interest thus seems to contain adverse information about firm fundamentals that can prove useful to bond investors.

Russell index reconstitutions and short interest

Our purpose is to extend the reconstitution literature by considering short interest activity and shareholder wealth effects around the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 index. For index additions, we find an inverse relationship in the reconstitution period, suggesting a dominant price pressure effect, and a direct relationship post-reconstitution, suggesting that short interest liquidity benefits dominate. For index deletions, our evidence suggests there are permanent negative wealth effects and persistent increases in short interest surrounding index reconstitutions, consistent with the imperfect substitutes hypothesis. Overall, our results show that short interest is an influential factor in the wealth effects of Russell 2000 index reconstitutions.

Why Do Firms Disagree with Short Sellers? Managerial Myopia versus Private Information

Though short sellers on average succeed at identifying overvalued equity, firms often signal disagreement with short sellers by repurchasing stock when short interest increases. We investigate whether this disagreement reflects a myopic defense of inflated prices, or positive private information. These repurchases appear motivated by managers’ private information, not agency issues, even when managerial benefits to short-termism are enhanced or monitoring is weaker. Managers’ informational advantage relates to subsequent news, earnings, and risk, but is attenuated if activists target management or insiders sell. A trading strategy based on our findings earns 7.5% annually.

What is Revealed When Firms Disagree with Short Sellers?

Though short sellers on average succeed at identifying overvalued equity, firms often signal disagreement with short sellers by repurchasing stock when short interest increases. We investigate whether this disagreement reflects a myopic defense of inflated prices, or positive private information. These repurchases appear motivated by managers' private information, not agency issues, even when managerial benefits to short-termism are enhanced or monitoring is weaker. Managers' informational advantage relates to subsequent news, earnings, and risk, but is attenuated if activists target management or insiders sell. A trading strategy based on our findings earns 7.5% annually.

Perceived information, short interest, and institutional demand

Abstract We test whether institutional investors’ demand relates to past arbitrage activity in the form of short interest. We find that changes in short interest positively predict institutional demand. Examining the reason for the positive relationship, we find that institutions do not appear to demand securities following increases in short interest to gain information. The securities in which the institutional demand following changes in short interest is concentrated, namely, securities with high short interest levels, low information uncertainty, and large increases in short interest, both earn returns equal to their risk-adjusted benchmarks and seem to have the least risky and most profitable share lending. The results are consistent with the idea that institutions place importance on share lending, leading to the predictability of institutional demand. Our study provides new evidence linking the behavior of professional money managers to that of sophisticated investors, such as short sellers.

Short interest, stock returns and credit ratings

Abstract This paper investigates the role of credit risk in the relationship between short-selling activity and future stock returns. We find that the predictive power of short interest for future returns is concentrated in the worst-rated stocks. Low-grade stocks with the largest short interest decrease outperform those with the largest short interest increase by 1.09 percent in the following month. This return spread is robust to controls for cross-sectional effects and firm characteristics, and is much more pronounced during periods of high investor sentiment and low liquidity. Distressed firms with large short interest increases experience a worse performance subsequently.

Do Short Sellers Target Firms with Poor Earnings Quality? Evidence from Earnings Restatements

We study the behavior of short sellers around earnings restatements. We find that short sellers accumulate positions in restating firms several months in advance of the restatement and subsequently unwind these positions after the drop in share price induced by the restatement. The increase in short interest is larger for firms with high levels of accruals prior to restatement, and the association between short interest and accruals is robust to controlling for other factors that affect the shorting decision. We document that heavily shorted firms experience poor subsequent performance and a higher rate of delisting. Overall, these results suggest that the motive for short selling is, at least in part, related to suspect financial reporting and that short sellers pay attention to the same type of information that is being conveyed by accruals.

Short Selling and Economic Policy Uncertainty

We study the trading behavior of short sellers in the presence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Daily short selling activity at either the aggregate level or the individual stock level is increasing in the EPU index (Baker, Bloom and Davis, 2016). EPU has great explanatory power for short trading. Cross-sectional tests show that the increase in short interest under high political uncertainty is from shorting stocks characterized by higher mispricing, greater policy sensitivity, higher illiquidity, greater volatility or analyst dispersion. Short sellers earn abnormal profits by trading on public information related to EPU.

Informed short selling around SEO announcements

While much of the prior research on short selling around announcements of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) has focused on manipulation, it is unclear whether there is also informed short selling around these announcements. We test for informed short selling around SEO announcements by examining the relation between i) pre-announcement short selling and the announcement-period return and ii) changes in short interest around the SEO announcement and the long-term operating and stock price performance following the equity issue. We find that firms with large increases in short interest prior to the SEO announcement exhibit lower (i.e., more negative) announcement-period returns, and that firms with large increases in short interest around the SEO announcement experience inferior long-term operating and stock price performance following the equity issue. We also find that the negative relation between large increases in short interest and long-term operating and stock price performance is more pronounced among shelf offers. This result highlights the informational role of short sellers in identifying opportunistic market timers of equity issues among shelf filers. Our overall results indicate the presence of informed short selling around SEO announcements.

Hedge funds as international liquidity providers: evidence from convertible bond arbitrage in Canada

We examine the impact of Canadian convertible bond issuance on equity market liquidity. Using issuance event dates between April 2002 and March 2011, we analyze the change in short interest and stock liquidity during a 1-year event window. We consider mainstream liquidity measures, including turnover, dollar volume, dollar spread, percentage spread, and the ratio of daily absolute stock return to dollar volume. We find that after convertible bond issuances, there are significant increases in short interest, but minimal overall improvements in liquidity. The change in liquidity is not significantly related to the change in short interest, except for the firms with large change in short interest. Interpreting increased short interest after issuance as a proxy for convertible bond arbitrage activity, the results suggest that there is limited positive liquidity externality of hedge fund activity in Canada.

Does Perceived Information in Short Sales Cause Institutional Herding?

The institutional herding literature demonstrates, that institutional long equity demand in period t is dependent on their long equity demand in period t-1. We, test if institutions’ long positions also rely on perceived information contained in the trades of sophisticated arbitrageurs in the form of short interest. We test two hypotheses. First, institutions perceive changes in short interest as predicting future returns. In this case subsequent institutional demand should be negatively related to changes in short interest. Second, institutions perceive short interest as correcting mispricing. In this case short-sale constrained institutions, underweight securities until short interest increases, they view prices as corrected, and subsequently purchase the security. We find that institutional demand is positively related to past changes in short interest, supporting the perceived price correction hypothesis.

Why Do Firms Disagree with Short Sellers? Managerial Self-Interest Versus Private Information

Though short sellers are generally adept at identifying overvalued equity, firms are more likely to repurchase stock when short interest increases. We investigate the causes and consequences of firms disagreeing with short sellers by repurchasing company stock. On average, managers do not disagree to defend overvalued stock; instead, these repurchases appear motivated by private information that dominates the information of short sellers. Information channels include future earnings, changes in risk, and acquisition activity. We observe one exception: Managers are more likely to defend overvalued stock if an activist investor previously identified the management team as inefficient. Our results suggest that short sellers and other investors can glean information from publicly available repurchase disclosures: An implementable trading strategy based on our findings yields annual abnormal returns of approximately 7%.

Revealing Shorts An Examination of Large Short Position Disclosures

Since 2012, all European Union countries have required disclosure of large short positions. This reduces short interest, bid-ask spreads, and the informativeness of prices. After specific disclosures, short-run abnormal returns are insignificantly negative, but 90-day cumulative abnormal returns are a statistically significant |$-$|5.23%. We find disclosures are likely to be followed by other disclosures, especially when the initial discloser is large or centrally located. However, there is no subsequent increase in short interest, and prices do not subsequently reverse. These results indicate that large short sellers are well informed, and that disclosures are not being used to coordinate manipulative attacks. Received June 30, 2014; accepted June 24, 2016 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Short selling and exchange-traded funds returns: evidence from the London Stock Exchange

ABSTRACTAn exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a security that tracks a basket of stocks. An ETF investor gains immediate exposure to the basket, by taking either a long or short position on this instrument. Both hedgers and speculators can short ETFs, making the informational content of increases in ETF short interest difficult to interpret. Using high-frequency (daily) short-interest data for ETFs traded on the London Stock Exchange between June 2006 and April 2010, we examine the price impact on ETFs of increases in short interest. Contrary to most of the previous empirical evidence for individual stocks, we find that large increases in ETF short interest are associated with subsequent over-performance relative to a benchmark index and this pattern is most pronounced during pre-financial crisis period.

Revealing Shorts: An Examination of Large Short Position Disclosures

By 2012, all European Union countries began requiring the disclosure of large short positions. This regime change reduced short interest, bid-ask spreads, and the informativeness of prices. After specific disclosures, short-run abnormal returns are insignificantly negative, but 90-day cumulative abnormal returns are –5.23%. We find disclosures are likely to be followed by other disclosures, especially when the initial discloser is large or centrally located, but there is no subsequent increase in short interest, and prices do not subsequently reverse. These results indicate that large short sellers are well-informed, and that disclosures are not being used to coordinate manipulative attacks.

Informed Short Selling Around SEO Announcements

While much of the prior research on short selling around announcements of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) has focused on manipulation, it is unclear whether there is also informed short selling around these announcements. We test for informed short selling around SEO announcements by examining the relation between i) pre-announcement short selling and the announcement-period return and ii) changes in short interest around the SEO announcement and the long-term operating and stock price performance following the equity issue. We find that firms with large increases in short interest prior to the SEO announcement exhibit lower (i.e., more negative) announcement-period returns, and that firms with large increases in short interest around the SEO announcement experience inferior long-term operating and stock price performance following the equity issue. We also find that the negative relation between large increases in short interest and long-term operating and stock price performance is more pronounced among shelf offers. This result highlights the informational role of short sellers in identifying opportunistic market timers of equity issues among shelf filers. Our overall results indicate the presence of informed short selling around SEO announcements.

Short Selling and Firm Operating Performance

While it is well known that short selling predicts future negative stock price performance, it has not been established whether short selling predicts future negative operating performance. We find that firms in the top decile of increases in short interest (an increase of about four percentage points) experience a 21% subsequent decline in operating performance relative to matched control firms. The greater the increase in short interest, the larger the decline in operating performance. The results are robust to alternative performance measures and to sample splits based on firm size. These results suggest that short interest may reflect private information about firm fundamentals rather than other factors that may drive stock price changes.