Sales Tax Increase Research Articles

Empirical evidence of the myopic nature of special purpose local sales taxes to fight crime

Background: Local governments increasingly rely on sales taxes to raise revenue, often justifying the need for a local sales tax increase with a specific programmatic goal, such as better education or transportation. In Washington State, the legislature explained that a local sales tax increase was necessary to support criminal justice because criminal justice requires more police, courts, and jails. Objective: Informed by decades of literature questioning the efficacy of fighting crime through police, courts, and jails, the objective of this study seeks to use empirical evidence to explain whether the social fabric offers indicators that can better define criminal justice and thus inform local tax policy so that local sales tax revenue may be used to prevent crime rather than fight it. Method: The study compiled a 29-year history of 36 social variables across all 39 Washington counties to determine whether crime is predictable and what is most predictive of crime. Pearson coefficients of determination were calculated to identify cross-sectional associations between social variables and crime variables. An ARIMAX predictive model was then constructed to test the predictive power of the multivariate time series. Results: The study finds that crime is predictable and social observations specific to how a child grows up are consistently predictive explanatory variables of crime. There is reason to believe that the most effective action state and local governments can take to promote criminal justice and prevent crime is to leverage their taxing power to ensure that every child (a) has access to food and basic necessities, (b) is raised in a safe and stable home, and (c) graduates from college.

Summaries of Articles

Summaries of Articles

Fiscal Stimulus in Liquidity Traps: Conventional or Unconventional Policies?

Recent influential work argue that a gradual increase in sales tax stimulates economic activityin a liquidity trap by boosting inflation expectations. Higher public infrastructure investmentshould also be more expansive in a liquidity trap than in normal times by raising the potentialinterest rate and increasing aggregate demand. We analyze the relative merits of these policiesin New Keynesian models with and without endogenous private capital formation andheterogeneity when monetary policy does not respond by raising policy rates. Our key findingis that the effectiveness of sales tax hikes differs notably across various model specifications,whereas the benefits of higher public infrastructure investment are more robust in alternativemodel environments. We therefore conclude that fiscal policy should consider publicinvestment opportunities and not merely rely on tax policies to stimulate growth during theCOVID-19 crisis.3

Who Wants to Raise Taxes?

We test hypotheses about individual-level (partisanship and self-interest) and state-level (tax policy) factors that may shape public attitudes about raising taxes. Respondents were given a scenario where a state budget needed to be balanced with spending cuts or tax increases, and a scenario where either state sales or state income taxes would be increased. We find partisanship, ideology, and self-interest had substantial relationships with how people responded. Democrats, liberals, and those with fewer resources preferred tax increases over spending cuts, and preferred income tax increases over sales tax increases. Republicans (particularly wealthy Republicans), conservatives, and those with more resources preferred spending cuts to tax increases, and preferred sales tax increases over income tax increases. We also find income tax increases and higher tax burdens may correspond with preferences for cutting spending rather than raising taxes, but variation in the rates of a particular tax was not associated with attitudes about raising that tax. Our results suggest an electorate that may be somewhat more sophisticated about fiscal policy than what has been portrayed in several influential studies.

Analyzing voter support for California’s local option sales taxes for transportation

Local and regional governments in the U.S. rely increasingly on voter-approved local option sales taxes (LOSTs) to fund transportation capital investments, maintenance, and operations. LOSTs typically present voters with lists of local transportation projects and programs to be funded by a ¼ to 1 percent sales tax increase. Most research on LOSTs are case studies, which make generalizations about LOSTs difficult. We conducted a comprehensive, multi-jurisdictional analysis of LOST measures in California, the U.S. state with the greatest number of LOST measures. We examined 76 LOST measures put to voters between 1976 and 2016 to assess factors associated with voter support. LOSTs in California are enacted by counties, which we examined in addition to smaller intra-county geographies using both regression models and case studies. We tested several explanatory variables for association with voter support including macroeconomic and political context, planned measure expenditures, voter characteristics, and spatial distribution of proposed projects. We found that funding dedicated to public transit and returned to local jurisdictions predicts support at the county level, and that LOSTs that create new taxes—as opposed to extending or renewing existing taxes—are less popular with voters, all else equal. Our analyses of sub-county geographies revealed that political party affiliation is the strongest predictor of local voter support for LOSTs and that voters living adjacent to funded projects tended to be more supportive of LOSTs.

Public Support for Higher Taxes on the Wealthy: California’s Proposition 30

It has long been argued that growing inequality would lead to growing demands for redistribution, especially from less affluent individuals who would benefit most from redistribution. Yet, in many countries we have not seen tax increases and even when ballot initiatives allow individuals to directly vote to raise taxes on the wealthy they decline to do so. This raises the question of how economic self-interest shapes voting on tax proposals, and what factors may weaken the links between economic self-interest and tax policy preferences. In the U.S. context partisanship is a factor that has a major influence on attitudes about taxation. To explore how self-interest sometimes overcomes partisanship we take advantage of competing initiatives that were simultaneously on the ballot in California in 2012. California’s Proposition 30, a successful 2012 initiative, significantly increased taxes on the wealthy. By comparing voting on Proposition 30 to voting on Proposition 38, which would have raised taxes on nearly everyone, we observe that when tax hikes are focused only on the wealthy a substantial number of lower income Republicans (i.e., conservatives) defect from their party position opposing taxation. We identify these low-income Republicans as “populists.” Lower income Republicans are also less supportive of income tax increases on the lower and middle classes, and are more sensitive to income tax increases than sales tax increases. We argue that economic self-interest causes heterogeneity within the parties in terms of attitudes toward tax increases.

The global infrastructure public-private partnership and the extra-territorial politics of collective provision: The case of regional rail transit in Denver, USA

Drawing upon a case study of regional transit in Denver, Colorado, this article describes and accounts for the emergence of the global infrastructure public-private partnership (GIP3) as a novel extra-territorial mechanism for financing and delivering transportation infrastructure projects across large metropolitan regions in the United States (US). Unlike traditional locally-funded public-private partnerships, a GIP3 involves a global (i.e. extra-territorial) consortium of private sector construction firms and investors which enters into a long-term contract with a regional public agency to finance, operate, maintain and deliver strategic investments in transportation infrastructure. In 2004, Denver region voters approved a sales tax increase to fund the Denver Regional Transportation District (RTD)’s US$4.7 billion FasTracks programme, a 122-mile extension of light and commuter rail along six corridors. Faced with a shortfall in regional funding, the Denver RTD subsequently entered into a contract with a GIP3 consortium to finance and deliver the Eagle P3 project, a major component of the FasTracks system to Denver International Airport. The article argues that future research on GIP3 contractual agreements needs to consider the local control of infrastructure assets and the integrity of supporting regional collaborative governance arrangements.

Fostering Sustainability Transitions by Designing for the Convergence of Policy Windows and Transition Arenas

Transition arenas that do not converge with policy windows to achieve structural or institutional change often fail to achieve their stated transformative goals. For their part, policy windows often lead to only incremental change. On their own, transition management and the multiple streams approach seem inadequate to the challenges facing cities. However, in combination, they can be transformative, as exemplified by the Citizens Committee for the Future of Phoenix Transportation. In 2015, this committee in Phoenix, AZ passed a ~USD 31.5 billion 2050 transportation plan funded by a sales tax increase from 0.4 to 0.7%. This plan’s development realized a policy window in a transition arena through an instrumental boundary object workshop with innovative facilitation. This article sets out to explore, based on this in-depth, applied transition arena process, how to combine transition management and the multiple streams approach to increase the transformative potential of transition arenas. The multiple streams approach and transition management have rarely been used simultaneously or had their integration planned. However, this case from Phoenix, AZ illustrates the potential for boundary objects and facilitation processes in designing for the convergence of policy windows and transition arenas.

Local sales taxes, employment, and tax competition

Most analysis of the economic impacts of sales taxes does not include local taxes, despite the fact that they account for one-fifth of all sales tax collections and vary widely across states. This paper addresses that omission, estimating the effect of sales taxes on employment at state borders using county-level quarterly data and a newly developed data set of local county tax rates. The findings indicate that sales tax increases, relative to cross-border neighbors, lead to losses of employment, as well as payroll and hiring, but these effects are only found in counties with large shares of residents working in another state. The employment effects are also likely to be relatively short-lived, as they occur in the period before tax competition occurs and competitive jurisdictions are able to strategically respond and minimize cross-border tax differentials. Comparing estimates of sales tax effects with and without local county sales taxes show that omitting county taxes does not lead to meaningfully different estimates.

Employment impacts of alcohol taxes

There is strong scientific evidence supporting the effectiveness of increasing alcohol taxes for reducing excessive alcohol consumption and related problems. Opponents have argued that alcohol tax increases lead to job losses. However, there has been no comprehensive economic analysis of the impact of alcohol taxes on employment. To fill this gap, a regional macroeconomic simulation model was used to assess the net impact of two hypothetical alcohol tax increases (a 5-cent per drink excise tax increase and a 5% sales tax increase on beer, wine, and distilled spirits, respectively) on employment in Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. The model accounted for changes in alcohol demand, average state income, and substitution effects. The employment impact of spending the new tax revenue on general expenditures versus health care was also assessed. Simulation results showed that a 5-cent per drink additional excise tax on alcoholic beverages with new tax revenues allocated to general expenditures increased net employment in Arkansas (802 jobs); Florida (4583 jobs); Massachusetts (978 jobs); New Mexico (653 jobs); and Wisconsin (1167 jobs). A 5% additional sales tax also increased employment in Arkansas (789 jobs; Florida (4493 jobs); Massachusetts (898 jobs); New Mexico (621 jobs); and Wisconsin (991 jobs). Using new alcohol tax revenues to fund health care services resulted in slightly lower net increases in state employment. The overall economic impact of alcohol tax increases cannot be fully assessed without accounting for the job gains resulting from additional tax revenues.

Effect of Maryland's 2011 Alcohol Sales Tax Increase on Alcohol-Positive Driving.

The 2011 Maryland alcohol sales tax increase from 6% to 9% provided an opportunity to evaluate the impact on rates of alcohol-positive drivers involved in injury crashes. Maryland police crash reports from 2001 to 2013 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design and a multivariable analysis employing generalized estimating equations models with a negative binomial distribution. Data were analyzed in 2014-2015. There was a significant gradual annual reduction of 6% in the population-based rate of all alcohol-positive drivers (p<0.03), and a 12% reduction for drivers aged 15-20 years (p<0.007), and 21-34 years (p<0.001) following the alcohol sales tax increase. There were no significant changes in rates of alcohol-positive drivers aged 35-54 years (rate ratio, 0.98; 95% CI=0.89, 1.09). Drivers aged ≥55 years had a significant immediate 10% increase in the rate of alcohol-positive drivers (rate ratio, 1.10; 95% CI=1.04, 1.16) and a gradual increase of 4.8% per year after the intervention. Models using different denominators and controlling for multiple factors including a proxy for unmeasured factors found similar results overall. The 2011 Maryland alcohol sales tax increase led to a significant reduction in the rate of all alcohol-positive drivers involved in injury crashes especially among drivers aged 15-34 years. This is the first study to examine the impact of alcohol sales taxes on crashes; previous research focused on excise tax. Increasing alcohol taxes is an important but often neglected intervention to reduce alcohol-impaired driving.

Asymmetric incidence of sales taxes: A short-run investigation of gasoline prices

This paper investigates the shifting of sales taxes to consumers through retail prices in the short run. Retail data on gasoline prices are used at the station level within the U.S., including observations from all fifty states and the District of Columbia. A difference-in-differences approach is employed to identify the short-run effects of the changes in state taxes as of January 1st, 2015, when five states have increased their gasoline sales taxes, while five other states have decreased theirs. States experiencing such changes in sales taxes (between December 31st, 2014 and January 1st, 2015) are analyzed as the treatment group of a natural policy experiment, where the control group consists of states with no changes in their sales taxes. The results show that both sales-tax increases and decreases are under-shifted to consumer prices, although the under-shifting of sales-tax decreases is much higher (i.e., the asymmetric incidence of sales taxes). The pass-through measures also differ significantly across states, showing the importance of having a nationwide analysis. The results are robust to the consideration of retailer characteristics, wholesale prices, retail brand effects and hourly price changes within each day.

Impact of Maryland’s 2011 alcohol sales tax increase on alcoholic beverage sales

ABSTRACTBackground: Increasing alcohol taxes has proven effective in reducing alcohol consumption, but the effects of alcohol sales taxes on sales of specific alcoholic beverages have received little research attention. Data on sales are generally less subject to reporting biases than self-reported patterns of alcohol consumption. Objectives: We aimed to assess the effects of Maryland’s July 1, 2011 three percentage point increase in the alcohol sales tax (6–9%) on beverage-specific and total alcohol sales. Methods: Using county-level data on Maryland’s monthly alcohol sales in gallons for 2010–2012, by beverage type, multilevel mixed effects multiple linear regression models estimated the effects of the tax increase on alcohol sales. We controlled for seasonality, county characteristics, and national unemployment rates in the main analyses. Results: In the 18 months after the tax increase, average per capita sales of spirits were 5.1% lower (p < 0.001), beer sales were 3.2% lower (p < 0.001), and wine sales were 2.5% lower (p < 0.01) relative to what would have been expected from sales trends in the 18 months prior to the tax increase. Overall, the alcohol sales tax increase was associated with a 3.8% decline in total alcohol sold relative to what would have been expected based on sales in the prior 18 months (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The findings suggest that increased alcohol sales taxes may be as effective as excise taxes in reducing alcohol consumption and related problems. Sales taxes also have the added advantages of rising with inflation and taxing the highest priced beverages most heavily.

Homeowners, renters and the political economy of property taxation

Studies find that renters are more supportive of public spending that is financed by the property tax than homeowners, a finding commonly referred to as the “renter effect.” The renter effect suggests that, all else equal, renters should prefer property taxation over other forms of taxation. We test that hypothesis using detailed micro-level survey data that contains voter responses to two key questions: their willingness to pay higher property taxes to fund public services and their willingness to pay higher sales taxes to fund those services. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find first that renters are approximately 10 to 18 percentage points more likely than homeowners to favor a property tax increase over a sales tax increase, a finding consistent with the presence of a renter effect. However, these results are not driven by the survey responses of renters. Analysis based on separate regressions for renters and homeowners reveals that renters are indifferent between a property tax increase and either a sales tax or state income tax increase, while homeowners strongly oppose a property tax increase relative to either a sales tax or state income tax increase. Further, the strong opposition among homeowners to the property tax is not eroded by including controls for income and other demographics as might be expected if these differences were driven by economic incentives. Finally, an examination of the variation in tax burden created by Proposition 13 in California shows no evidence that homeowner aversion to the property tax increases with the homeowner's relative tax burden. These findings of homeowner aversion to property taxes are consistent with recent work suggesting that salience matters when voters evaluate taxes, but also suggest that increased salience does not necessarily lead to more careful consideration of individual tax burdens.

Homeowners, Renters and the Political Economy of Property Taxation

Studies that examine the demand for local public services that are financed by a property tax consistently find that renters are more supportive of public spending than homeowners, a finding commonly referred to as the “renter effect.” In this paper we use detailed micro-level survey data to provide new evidence on the renter effect. The renter effect suggests that, all else equal, renters should prefer property taxation over other forms of taxation. We test that hypothesis using voter responses to two key questions: their willingness to pay higher property taxes to fund public services and their willingness to pay higher sales taxes to fund those services. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find first that renters are approximately 10 to 18 percentage points more likely than homeowners to favor a property tax increase over a sales tax increase, a finding consistent with the presence of a renter effect. However, these results are not driven by the voting behavior of renters. Analysis based on separate regressions for renters and homeowners reveals that renters are indifferent between a property tax increase and either a sales tax or state income tax increase, while homeowners strongly oppose a property tax increase relative to either a sales tax or state income tax increase. Further analysis reveals that the strong opposition among homeowners to the property tax is not associated with the relative tax burden faced by homeowners. Examining the variation in tax burden created by Proposition 13 in California, we find that homeowner aversion to the property tax does not increase with the homeowner’s relative tax burden. These findings of homeowner aversion to property taxes are consistent with recent work suggesting that salience matters when voters evaluate taxes, but also suggest that increased salience does not necessarily lead to more careful consideration of individual tax burdens.

Fiscal outcomes and tax impacts from stadium financing strategies in Arlington, Texas

This paper addresses the case of Arlington, Texas and its strategy of using a sales tax increase to fund the construction of its sports stadiums. While Arlington exported a large portion of the tax increase to nearby areas—and increased its monthly sales and use tax collections by nearly $1.7 million—the net outcome with respect to economic activity may not justify its use due to relatively large losses in taxable spending within the city. While certain industry sectors may be prime taxation targets due to unique characteristics of a given area, public managers must be aware of the potential to avoid these taxes due to how municipal boundaries are drawn.The financing lessons provided will be applicable to any tax increase implementation for facilities with temporary tenants or any other publicly-funded project, for example the Olympic Games and World Cup.

A Survey of Sales Tax Exemptions in the States: Understanding Sales Taxes and Sales Tax Exemptions

We analyze the choice politicians face when seeking votes from groups that lobby for sales tax rate decreases or from groups that lobby for certain tax exemptions, given the constraint that each politician wants to raise a certain amount of revenue. Using the application of sales taxes and sales tax exemptions we develop a model predicting a positive relationship between the number of sales tax exemptions and the sales tax rate. We find support for this hypothesis. A one-unit increase in the number of exemptions is associated with an increase between 0.10 and 0.25 percent in the sales tax rate. Our results provide one explanation of why estimates of revenue increases generated by a sales tax increase are often too optimistic.

The Effect of State and Local Sales Taxes on Employment at State Borders

This paper estimates the effect of sales taxes on employment at state borders using county-level quarterly data and a newly developed data set of local tax rates. Sales tax increases, relative to cross-border neighbors, lead to losses of employment, as well as payroll and hiring, but these effects are only found in counties with large shares of residents working in another state. The effects also represent an upper-bound, largely driven by employment shifting across the state border. We also find that employment in food and beverage stores is negatively affected when cross-border neighbors adopt low sales tax rates on food.

The Effect of State and Local Sales Taxes on Employment at State Borders

This paper estimates the effect of sales taxes on employment at state borders using county-level quarterly data and a newly developed dataset of local tax rates. Sales tax increases, relative to cross-border neighbors, lead to losses of employment, as well as payroll and hiring, but these effects are only found in counties with large shares of residents working in another state. The effects also represent an upper-bound, largely driven by employment shifting across the state border. We also find that employment in food and beverage stores is negatively affected when cross-border neighbors adopt low sales tax rates on food.

Sales Taxes and Internet Commerce

We estimate the sensitivity of Internet retail purchasing to sales taxes using eBay data. Our first approach exploits the fact that a seller's location—and therefore the applicable tax rate—is revealed only after a buyer has expressed interest in an item. We document how adverse tax “surprises” reduce the likelihood of purchase and shift subsequent purchases toward out-of-state sellers. We then use more aggregated data to estimate that every one percentage point increase in a state's sales tax increases online purchases by state residents by almost 2 percent, while decreasing their online purchases from state retailers by 3–4 percent. (JEL H71, L81, L86)