Increase In Real Oil Prices Research Articles

Understanding the nexus between oil and gold

This paper tries to explore the relationship between real oil price and real gold price over a period of 1990 April to 2013 August. In order to check for the impact of real oil price on the real gold, return on real oil and return on real gold are used. The study employed types of GARCH models which suggested that an increase in real oil price has positive effects on gold. The EGARCH model provides the evidence that a 10% increase in the oil price returns leads to 4.7% increase of gold and shocks to gold price have an asymmetric effect, which means positive and negative shocks have different effect on gold price in terms of magnitude.

Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach

This paper investigates the threshold effects on the impacts of fundamentals (i.e., incomes, exchange rates, oil prices, and import-weighted distances) on China's trade balances with the G7 countries between 1975 and 2010 by using a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with the transition variable of lagged real interest rate differential. The empirical results show that the relationship between the trade balance and the fundamentals is rather nonlinear, changing over time and across countries depending on the lagged real interest rate differential during the different regimes. Moreover, China's bilateral trade balance responds significantly to the changes in relative real income differentials, real oil prices, and import-weighted distance. If the Federal Reserve adopts an expansionary monetary policy in the near future, China would still accumulate higher bilateral trade surpluses from most of the G7 countries, as long as the following situations exist: an increase in China's relative real per capita income, a slow increase in real oil price, and a stable RMB (the Chinese currency) exchange rate system.

Inflation in Malaysia

This study examines the determination of inflation in Malaysia. The results of the generalised forecast error variance decomposition show that real import price change is the most important factor in the determination of inflation. The impact of real oil price change on inflation is marginal. An increase in real oil price has a more significant impact on inflation than a decrease in real oil price. The results of the generalised impulse response function show the impact of variables examined on inflation is relatively short. There is evidence that real oil price change Granger causes inflation.

Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries

Oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and/or within the following month in the U.S. and 13 European countries over 1986:1–2005:12. Norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase. The median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6% of the volatility in real stock returns. For many European countries, but not for the U.S., increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns. The contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the U.S. and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate. An increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short-term interest rate in the U.S. and eight out of 13 European countries within one or two months. Counter to findings for the U.S. and for Norway, there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing European countries.

Conflict and cooperation in OPEC: some additional economic considerations

In a recent article in this journal Paul Jabber presents a cogent analysis of many of the potential conflicts that may face OPEC over the coming years and concludes that a collapse of the cartel is extremely unlikely, even under conditions of severe political dispute among OPEC members. I share Jabber's view that a collapse of the cartel is not probable in the medium-term future. I believe, however, that Jabber has not sufficiently recognized the divergencies as well as the similarities in the economic interests of the oil countries, and that, as a result, his analysis significantly overstates the likelihood that the real level of oil prices, i.e., the nominal price adjusted for the depreciating purchasing power of currencies, is likely to average near if not above the levels initially established with the first full-fledged flexing of OPEC's muscles in 1973–74. After the 1973–74 increases, the real price of oil fell substantially through 1978, although of course nowhere near preembargo levels. Thus Jabber's prediction was that a significant increase in real oil prices will occur over the coming decade.