Increase In Quality-adjusted Life Expectancy Research Articles

Overutilization of Endoscopic Surveillance in Barrett's Esophagus: The Perils of Too Much of a Good Thing.

A cost-utility analysis in the current issue of AJG examines the ramifications of the overuse of surveillance endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus (BE). This study suggests that excess surveillance is expensive, increasing costs by 50% or more, with only nominal increases in quality-adjusted life expectancy. This study joins a growing literature of cost-utility analyses that suggest that more is not likely better when it comes to surveillance endoscopy. Given the plentiful literature showing overutilization of surveillance endoscopy in BE, the authors argue for a focus on the quality of endoscopy rather than increased frequency of surveillance to improve returns on our healthcare investment.

Identifying the Best Treatment in Adult Spinal Deformity: A Decision Analysis Approach

Introduction Adult spinal deformity (ASD) is a major public health problem. There are pros and cons of the available treatment alternatives (surgical or non-surgical) and it had been difficult to identify the best treatment modality. Aim of this study is to construct a statistical decision analysis (DA) model to identify the optimum overall treatment in ASD. Material and Methods From an international multicentre database of ASD patients (968 pts), 535 who had completed 1 year follow-up (371 non-surgical –NS), 164 surgical –S), constitute the population of this study. DA was structured in two main steps of: 1) Baseline analysis (Assessing the probabilities of outcomes, Assessing the values of preference –utilities-, Combining information on probability and utility and assigning the quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for each treatment) and 2) Sensitivity analysis. Results 432 patients (309 NS, 123 S) had baseline and 1 year follow-up ODI measurements. Overall, 104 (24.1%) were found to be improved (a decrease in ODI > 8 points), 225 (52.1%) unchanged (−8 > ODI > 8) and 65 deteriorated. Surgery presented with a higher chance of improvement (54.2%) versus NS (9.7%) (Table 1a). The overall QALE ranged from 56 to 69 (of 100 years) and demonstrated better final outcomes in the NS group, although this group had also started with higher QALE. There were improvements in overall QALE in both groups but this was significant only in the surgical group (Table 1b). In addition, in the subgroup of patients with significant baseline disability (ODI > 25) surgery appeared to yield marginally better final QALE (Table 1c). Conclusion This study demonstrated that a single best treatment modality for ASD may not exist. Conservative treatment appears to yield higher (up to 6%) QALE compared with surgery, probably secondary to a higher baseline QALE; except in patients with significant disability at baseline. On the other hand, surgery provides a significantly higher increase in QALE and chances of improvement at 1st year are significantly lower with NS treatment.

A decision analysis to identify the ideal treatment for adult spinal deformity: is surgery better than non-surgical treatment in improving health-related quality of life and decreasing the disease burden?

Adult spinal deformity (ASD) is a major public health problem. There are pros and cons of the available treatment alternatives (surgical or non-surgical) and it had been difficult to identify the best treatment modality. To construct a statistical DA model to identify the optimum overall treatment in ASD. From an international multicentre database of ASD patients (968 pts), 535 who had completed 1year follow-up (371 non-surgical-NS, 164 surgical-S), constitute the population of this study. DA was structured in two main steps of: (1) baseline analysis (assessing the probabilities of outcomes, assessing the values of preference-utilities-, combining information on probability and utility and assigning the quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for each treatment) and (2) sensitivity analysis. Four hundred and thirty-two patients (309 NS, 123 S) had baseline and 1year follow-up ODI measurements. Overall, 104 (24.1%) were found to be improved (a decrease in ODI>8 points), 225 (52.1%) unchanged (-8>ODI>8) and 65 deteriorated. Surgery presented with a higher chance of improvement (54.2%) versus NS (9.7%). The overall QALE ranged from 56 to 69 (of 100years) and demonstrated better final QALE in the NS group (60 vs. 65, P=0.0038), this group having started with higher QALE as well (56 vs. 65years, P<0.0001). There were improvements in overall QALE in both groups but this was significant only in the surgical group (S from 56 to 60years, P<0.0001; NS from 65 to 65years, P=0.27). In addition, in the subgroup of patients with significant baseline disability (ODI>25) surgery appeared to yield marginally better final QALE (58 vs. 56years, P=0.1) despite very a similar baseline (54 vs. 54years, P=0.93). This study demonstrated that a single best treatment modality for ASD may not exist. Conservative treatment appears to yield higher (up to 6%) QALE compared to surgery, most probably secondary to a higher baseline QALE. On the other hand, surgery provides a significantly higher increase in QALE. Especially in patients with significant disability at baseline, the final QALE tended higher in the S group (although not significant). Finally, chances of a relevant improvement at first year turned out to be significantly lower with NS treatment.

Evaluation of the long-term cost-effectiveness of liraglutide therapy for patients with type 2 diabetes in France

Objectives:The present study aimed to compare the projected long-term clinical and cost implications associated with liraglutide, sitagliptin and glimepiride in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus failing to achieve glycemic control on metformin monotherapy in France.Methods:Clinical input data for the modeling analysis were taken from two randomized, controlled trials (LIRA-DPP4 and LEAD-2). Long-term (patient lifetime) projections of clinical outcomes and direct costs (2013 Euros; €) were made using a validated computer simulation model of type 2 diabetes. Costs were taken from published France-specific sources. Future costs and clinical benefits were discounted at 3% annually. Sensitivity analyses were performed.Results:Liraglutide was associated with an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.25 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and an increase in mean direct healthcare costs of €2558 per patient compared with sitagliptin. In the comparison with glimepiride, liraglutide was associated with an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.23 QALYs and an increase in direct costs of €4695. Based on these estimates, liraglutide was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €10,275 per QALY gained vs sitagliptin and €20,709 per QALY gained vs glimepiride in France.Conclusion:Calculated ICERs for both comparisons fell below the commonly quoted willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000 per QALY gained. Therefore, liraglutide is likely to be cost-effective vs sitagliptin and glimepiride from a healthcare payer perspective in France.

Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

BackgroundMany analyses of HIV treatment decisions assume a fixed formulary of HIV drugs. However, new drugs are approved nearly twice a year, and the rate of availability of new drugs may affect treatment decisions, particularly when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART).ObjectivesTo determine the impact of considering the availability of new drugs on the optimal initiation criteria for ART and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS.MethodsWe enhanced a previously described simulation model of the optimal time to initiate ART to incorporate the rate of availability of new antiviral drugs. We assumed that the future rate of availability of new drugs would be similar to the past rate of availability of new drugs, and we estimated the past rate by fitting a statistical model to actual HIV drug approval data from 1982–2010. We then tested whether or not the future availability of new drugs affected the model-predicted optimal time to initiate ART based on clinical outcomes, considering treatment initiation thresholds of 200, 350, and 500 cells/mm3. We also quantified the impact of the future availability of new drugs on life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE).ResultsIn base case analysis, considering the availability of new drugs raised the optimal starting CD4 threshold for most patients to 500 cells/mm3. The predicted gains in outcomes due to availability of pipeline drugs were generally small (less than 1%), but for young patients with a high viral load could add as much as a 4.9% (1.73 years) increase in LE and a 8% (2.43 QALY) increase in QALE, because these patients were particularly likely to exhaust currently available ART regimens before they died. In sensitivity analysis, increasing the rate of availability of new drugs did not substantially alter the results. Lowering the toxicity of future ART drugs had greater potential to increase benefit for many patient groups, increasing QALE by as much as 10%.ConclusionsThe future availability of new ART drugs without lower toxicity raises optimal treatment initiation for most patients, and improves clinical outcomes, especially for younger patients with higher viral loads. Reductions in toxicity of future ART drugs could impact optimal treatment initiation and improve clinical outcomes for all HIV patients.

A MULTISTATE LIFE TABLE MODEL INCLUDING DISEASE RECOVERY FOR ASSESSING THE HEALTH IMPACTS OF CHRONIC ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES

Background and Aims: Multistate life tables, which model the movement of individuals within a population over time between various health states, provide benefits over standard life tables since they account for the many chronic health conditions associated with environmental exposures. However, these models have not previously included disease recovery. This is an important omission for certain conditions, such as asthma, from which people may recover during their lifetime. As such, this work aims to develop and apply a tool capable of including disease recovery for use in environmental risk assessment. Methods: We present details of a new multistate life table model. The starting point for the method is age- and disease-specific mortality, disease prevalence and incidence rates. Individuals within the population may move between good health, several disease states, a recovered state and, ultimately, death. Time spent with disease is weighted for reduced quality-of-life. The model estimates quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and can be used to study patterns of mortality and morbidity over time in response to changes in environmental exposures. Results: We describe illustrative examples of the application of the model for health impact assessments of housing interventions in England and Wales. In particular, we show that a relatively modest decrease (3 μg m-3) in average indoor PM2.5 exposure results in an increase in QALE at birth of around two months, with ~600 fewer new diagnoses of asthma in children under 15 and ~3,000 fewer new cases of coronary heart disease per year. Conclusions: The new model provides substantial benefits for performing environmental health impact assessments. Including disease recovery is an important step towards modelling the effects on population health of complex actions and interventions in a comprehensive manner. The model will provide useful information for policy-makers, helping them to more effectively determine the health impacts of environmental policies.

Cost effectiveness of screening immigrants for hepatitis B

The prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection among the immigrants of North America ranges from 2 to 15%, among whom 40% develop advanced liver disease. Screening for hepatitis B surface antigen is not recommended for immigrants. The objective of this study is to estimate the health and economic effects of screening strategies for CHB among immigrants. We used the Markov model to examine the cost-effectiveness of three screening strategies: (i) 'No screening'; (ii) 'Screen and Treat' and (iii) 'Screen, Treat and Vaccinate' for 20-65 years old individuals who were born abroad but are currently living in Canada. Model data were obtained from the published literature. We measured predicted hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related deaths, costs (2008 Canadian Dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Our results show that screening all immigrants will prevent 59 HBV-related deaths per 10, 000 persons screened over the lifetime of the cohort. Screening was associated with an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.024 QALYs) and cost ($1665) per person with an ICER of $69, 209/QALY gained compared with 'No screening'. The 'Screen, Treat and Vaccinate' costs an additional $81, generates an additional 0.000022 QALYs per person, with an ICER of $3, 648,123/QALY compared with the 'Screen and Treat'. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the 'Screen and Treat' is likely to be moderately cost-effective. We show that a selective hepatitis B screening programme targeted at all immigrants in Canada is likely to be moderately cost-effective. Identification of silent CHB infection with the offer of treatment when appropriate can extend the lives of immigrants at reasonable cost.

Anti‐CD3 monoclonal antibody treatment in newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetes patients: a hypothetical modelling analysis

Although limited clinical data exist for anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody therapies, it is believed that they may influence glycaemic control, endogenous insulin secretion and hypoglycaemic event rates in individuals newly diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes. In the absence of suitable empirical evidence, the objective of this study was to estimate the potential long-term clinical outcomes associated with treatment via a hypothetical modelling analysis. Analyses were performed using a published and validated computer simulation model of diabetes in a hypothetical US cohort based on published literature and expert opinion. The efficacy of anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody treatment was estimated from clinical data and expert opinion and simulations were performed over a 60-year time horizon. The impact on quality of life associated with treatment was also captured via published utility values. Assuming that a treatment course of an anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody produced an initial reduction in glycated haemoglobin of -0.8%, and that the effects persisted for up to 5 years, treatment was projected to lead to an increase in undiscounted life expectancy of 0.43 years and an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.36 quality-adjusted life years compared with conventional exogenous insulin. A course of a hypothetical anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody treatment associated with improved glycaemic control and, potentially, the preservation of pancreatic beta-cell function was estimated to lead to improved life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy compared with conventional treatment in patients with newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetes.

Economic evaluation of treatment with orlistat in Italian obese patients

ABSTRACTThe XENDOS study showed that behavioural and pharmacological therapy can decrease the risk of metabolic disorders in obese patients.Methods: A probabilistic Bayesian Markov model simulating the outcomes of orlistat treatment on the obese Italian population has been developed with the WinBUGS software. The model integrates an algorithm to estimate cardiovascular risk based on Framingham Heart Study equations. Analyses adopted the societal cost perspective, including direct medical costs borne by both the National Health Service and the patient, since orlistat is not included in the Italian reimbursement list.Results: The simulation on the Italian obese population estimated an average increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy, a reduction of cardiovascular events and new diabetes cases. The average incremental cost–utility ratio is €75.3 (7.6–180.6) × 1000/QALY. The subgroup analysis showed that the benefits are relatively greater in older patients and in patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Two hypotheses have been explored to estimate the impact of a potential reimbursement decision by the Italian NHS: (1) orlistat is given to every obese patient; (2) orlistat is given only to obese IGT patients with a previous glucose tolerance general screening program to assess their eligibility. The cost utility of the strategies are €42.3 (−22.16–108.7) and €10.16 (−60.4–38.76) × 1000/QALY, respectively.Conclusion: Orlistat shows a good pharmacoeconomic profile and, in particular, the strategy of a screening programme to identify and treat the IGT subgroup has a cost–utility value of about €10 000/QALY. This value is lower than that of several therapeutic strategies commonly accepted and reimbursed in developed countries.

Life expectancy gains and cost-effectiveness of implantable cardioverter/defibrillators for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a devastating complication of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The optimal strategy for the primary prevention of SCD in HCM remains controversial. Using a Markov model, we compared the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of 3 strategies for the primary prevention of SCD: implantable cardioverter/defibrillator (ICD) insertion, amiodarone therapy, or no therapy. We modeled hypothetical cohorts of 45-year-old patients with HCM with no history of cardiac arrest but at significant risk of SCD (3%/y). Over a lifetime, compared with no therapy, ICD therapy increased quality-adjusted survival by 4.7 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at an additional cost of $142,800 ($30,000 per QALY), whereas amiodarone increased quality-adjusted survival by 2.8 QALYs at an additional cost of $104,900 ($37,300 per QALY). Compared with no therapy, ICD therapy would cost < $50,000 per QALY for patients (i) aged 25, with > or = 1 risk factors for SCD, and (ii) aged 45 or 65, with > or = 2 risk factors for SCD. An ICD strategy is projected to yield the greatest increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of the 3 treatment strategies evaluated. Combined consideration of age and the number of risk factors for SCD may allow more precise tailoring of ICD therapy to its expected benefits.

Therapy conversion to insulin detemir among patients with type 2 diabetes treated with oral agents: A modeling study of cost-effectiveness in the United States

The aim of this study was to gain a preliminary indication of the long-term clinical and economic implications of converting treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes to insulin detemir+/-oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) in a routine clinical practice setting in the United States. With the use of outcome data and patient characteristics reported from an ongoing prospective observational trial, a validated computer simulation model of diabetes was used to project the clinical and cost outcomes associated with therapy conversion to insulin detemir over a 35-y period from (1) OHA only, (2) neutral protamine Hagedorn insulin (NPH)+/-OHA, and (3) insulin glargine+/-OHA. Cost-effectiveness was assessed from a third-party healthcare payer perspective for the year 2005. Costs and clinical outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3%. Treatment with insulin detemir+/-OHA was associated with increases in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.309, 0.350, and 0.333 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) versus treatment with OHA alone, NPH+/-OHA, and insulin glargine+/-OHA, respectively. Increases in pharmacy costs were partially offset by reduced complications, rticularly renal complications and neuropathy. Projected incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were well within the range considered to represent good value in the United States, at $7412, $6269, and $3951 per QALY gained for treatment with Idet+/-OHA versus OHA alone, NPH+/-OHA, and Iglarg+/-OHA, respectively. On the basis of preliminary evidence of short-term improvements in glycemic control and reduced hypoglycemia, therapy conversion to insulin detemir+/-OHA from OHA alone, NPH+/-OHA, or insulin glargine+/-OHA was projected to increase quality-adjusted life expectancy and to represent a cost-effective treatment option in the United States.

Cost-effectiveness of detemir-based basal/bolus therapy versus NPH-based basal/bolus therapy for type 1 diabetes in a UK setting: an economic analysis based on meta-analysis results of four clinical trials

SUMMARYBackground: A meta-analysis of results from four clinical trials in type 1 diabetes patients showed that insulin detemir (IDet)-based basal/bolus treatment of type 1 diabetes led to improved HbA1c (0.15%-points lower), reduced risk of major hypoglycaemic events (by 2%) and reduction in body mass index (BMI) (0.26kg/m2) compared to protamine Hagedorn human (NPH) insulin-based basal/bolus therapy in type 1 patients.Methods: A published, validated, peer-reviewed Markov simulation model (the CORE Diabetes Model) projected short-term results obtained from the fixed-effects (weighted average) meta-analysis to long-term incidence of complications, improvements in quality-adjusted life years (QALY), long-term costs and the cost-effectiveness for IDet combinations versus NPH combinations in type 1 diabetes patients. Probabilities of complications and HbA1c-dependent adjustments were derived from the DCCT and other studies. Costs of treating complications in the UK were retrieved from published sources. Total direct costs (complications + treatment costs) for each arm were projected over patient lifetimes from a UK National Heath Service perspective. Both costs and clinical outcomes were discounted at 3.5% annually.Results: Improved glycaemic control, decreased hypoglycaemic events and BMI with IDet-based basal/bolus therapy led to fewer diabetes-related complications, an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.09 years, increased total lifetime costs/patient of £1707 and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £19,285 per QALY gained. Results were stable under a wide range of reasonable assumptions.Conclusions: Short-term improvements seen with IDet combinations versus NPH combinations led to decreased complications, improvements in QALYs and reductions in complication costs, which partially offset the additional costs of detemir, leading to a cost-effectiveness ratio which fell within a range considered to represent excellent value for money (< £35,000/QALY gained).

Clopidogrel versus aspirin for secondary prophylaxis of vascular events: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Purpose Clopidogrel is more effective than aspirin in preventing recurrent vascular events, but concerns about its cost-effectiveness have limited its use. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel and aspirin as secondary prevention in patients with a prior myocardial infarction, a prior stroke, or peripheral arterial disease. Methods We constructed Markov models assuming a societal perspective, and based analyses on the lifetime treatment of a 63-year-old patient facing event probabilities derived from the Clopidogrel versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischemic Events (CAPRIE) trial as the base case. Outcome measures included costs, life expectancy in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and events averted. Results In patients with peripheral arterial disease, clopidogrel increased life expectancy by 0.55 QALYs at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,100 per QALY, as compared with aspirin. In poststroke patients, clopidogrel increased life expectancy by 0.17 QALYs at a cost of $31,200 per QALY. Aspirin was both less expensive and more effective than clopidogrel in post–myocardial infarction patients. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, our evaluation for patients with peripheral vascular disease was robust. Evaluations of stroke and myocardial infarction patients were sensitive predominantly to the cost and efficacy of clopidogrel, with aspirin therapy more effective and less expensive in 153 of 1000 simulations (15.3%) in poststroke patients and clopidogrel more effective in 119 of 1000 simulations (11.9%) in the myocardial infarction sample. CONCLUSION Clopidogrel provides a substantial increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy at a cost that is within traditional societal limits for patients with either peripheral arterial disease or a recent stroke. Current evidence does not support increased efficacy with clopidogrel relative to aspirin in patients following myocardial infarction.

Routine duplex surveillance does not improve the outcome after carotid endarterectomy: a decision and cost utility analysis.

Doppler ultrasound (duplex) tests are commonly applied after carotid endarterectomy to detect possible recurrent stenosis. The appropriate frequency and the benefits are unknown. We investigated the costs and effects of various follow-up strategies to determine the optimal strategy after carotid endarterectomy. Using decision-analytic methods, a Monte Carlo Markov model was constructed. Probabilities and costs were obtained by systematic literature review. From empirical data regarding restenosis, a disease model was constructed to test the effect of various follow-up strategies using duplex testing and angiography. Main outcome measures were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), probability of stroke, and costs (for both the Dutch and the American situation). The average quality-adjusted life expectancy for a 66-year-old patient was 6.31 years for the symptom-guided strategy (with duplex scanning only being performed in case of symptoms of cerebral ischemia). The mean lifetime costs for this strategy were $5 600 for the US and 4 600 Euro for the Netherlands. The cumulative probability of stroke was 13%. Yearly routine duplex tests up to 5 years after operation resulted in similar QALYs and a similar probability of stroke, but higher costs ($7 300 for the US and 5 600 Euro for The Netherlands situation). No other strategy, including routine duplex surveillance, increased QALYs. When MR instead of conventional angiography was used as confirmatory test, no improvement was observed either. Routine duplex surveillance does not result in an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy, but it does increase costs. After successful carotid endarterectomy, a symptom-guided follow-up is an appropriate approach.

Evidence-based organ allocation

BACKGROUND: There are not enough cadaveric kidneys to meet the demands of transplant candidates. The equity and efficiency of alternative organ allocation strategies have not been rigorously compared. METHODS: We developed a five-compartment Monte Carlo simulation model to compare alternative organ allocation strategies, accommodating dynamic changes in recipient and donor characteristics, patient and graft survival rates, and quality of life. The model simulated the operations of a single organ procurement organization and attempted to predict the evolution of the transplant waiting list for 10 years. Four allocation strategies were compared: a first-come first-transplanted system; a point system currently utilized by the United Network of Organ Sharing; an efficiency-based algorithm that incorporated correlates of patient and graft survival; and a distributive efficiency algorithm, which had an additional goal of promoting equitable allocation among African-American and other candidates. RESULTS: A 10-year computer simulation was performed. The distributive efficiency policy was associated with a 3.5% ± 0.8% (mean ± SD) increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy (33.9 months vs 32.7 months), a decrease in the median waiting time to transplantation among those who were transplanted (6.6 months vs 16.3 months), and an increase in the overall likelihood of transplantation (61% vs 45%), compared with the United Network of Organ Sharing algorithm. Improved equity and efficiency were also seen by race (African-American vs other), sex, and age (<50 or ≥50 years). Sensitivity analyses did not appreciably change the qualitative results. CONCLUSION: Evidence-based organ allocation strategies in cadaveric kidney transplantation would yield improved equity and efficiency measures compared with existing algorithms.

Future benefits and cost‐effectiveness of prostate carcinoma screening

Estimates of cost-effectiveness for prostate carcinoma screening require a review of current data, modeling efforts, and perspectives on societal impact and costs. Recent data from the cancer registry of the Michigan Department of Community Health was assessed for incidence trends in relation to age groups and racial differences. Differences in tumor biology between African-American men (AAM) and white men were assessed from a large clinical biopsy series. A review of the literature addressing Markoff modeling to obtain estimates of treatment, screening efficacy, and costs were evaluated. The decline in the incidence of prostate carcinoma since 1992 primarily affected men age > 70 years whereas younger men (age 45-70 years) maintained a 100% greater incidence of localized disease than in 1989, when prostate specific antigen screening became more common. The rate of distant disease has decreased by 60% for both age groups. In the current biopsy series, AAM have distinctly more cores involved with carcinoma and have a higher number of carcinoma cores involved with a Gleason score > or = 7 in men age < or = 70 years with a PSA level < or = 10 ng/ mL (P < 0.05). Markoff models reviewed in the literature demonstrated significant sensitivity to progression, complication, and comorbidity rates. Recent models suggested significant increases in quality-adjusted life expectancy for men choosing radical prostatectomy over watchful waiting if they were age < 70 years and had no severe comorbidities. Original cost estimates from benefit-cost analysis showed similar results of cost per carcinoma and cost per quality-adjusted life-year extension as later cost-effectiveness models. Current diagnostic trends toward the persistent increased detection of localized prostate carcinoma in younger men, combined with a marked reduction in distant stage disease, suggest significant potential mortality reductions. These trends may have greater implications for AAM, but further research is needed to produce models of mortality reduction from emerging data.

Future benefits and cost-effectiveness of prostate carcinoma screening

BACKGROUND Estimates of cost-effectiveness for prostate carcinoma screening require a review of current data, modeling efforts, and perspectives on societal impact and costs. METHODS Recent data from the cancer registry of the Michigan Department of Community Health was assessed for incidence trends in relation to age groups and racial differences. Differences in tumor biology between African-American men (AAM) and white men were assessed from a large clinical biopsy series. A review of the literature addressing Markoff modeling to obtain estimates of treatment, screening efficacy, and costs were evaluated. RESULTS The decline in the incidence of prostate carcinoma since 1992 primarily affected men age > 70 years whereas younger men (age 45-70 years) maintained a 100% greater incidence of localized disease than in 1989, when prostate specific antigen screening became more common. The rate of distant disease has decreased by 60% for both age groups. In the current biopsy series, AAM have distinctly more cores involved with carcinoma and have a higher number of carcinoma cores involved with a Gleason score ≥ 7 in men age ≤ 70 years with a PSA level ≤ 10 ng/mL (P < 0.05). Markoff models reviewed in the literature demonstrated significant sensitivity to progression, complication, and comorbidity rates. Recent models suggested significant increases in quality-adjusted life expectancy for men choosing radical prostatectomy over watchful waiting if they were age < 70 years and had no severe comorbidities. Original cost estimates from benefit-cost analysis showed similar results of cost per carcinoma and cost per quality-adjusted life-year extension as later cost-effectiveness models. CONCLUSIONS Current diagnostic trends toward the persistent increased detection of localized prostate carcinoma in younger men, combined with a marked reduction in distant stage disease, suggest significant potential mortality reductions. These trends may have greater implications for AAM, but further research is needed to produce models of mortality reduction from emerging data. Cancer 1997; 80:1864-70. © 1997 American Cancer Society.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Total Hip Arthroplasty for Osteoarthritis of the Hip

Objective. —To quantify the trade-off between the expected increased short- and long-term costs and the expected increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) associated with total hip arthroplasty (THA) for persons with functionally significant hip osteoarthritis. Design. —A cost-effectiveness study was performed from the societal perspective by constructing stochastic tree, decision analytic models designed to estimate lifetime functional outcomes and costs of THA and nonoperative managements. Main Outcome Measures. —A modified four-state American College of Rheumatology functional status classification was used to measure effectiveness. These functional classes were assigned utility values to allow the relative effectiveness of THA to be expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Lifetime costs included costs associated with primary and potential revision surgeries and long-term care costs associated with the functionally dependent class. Data Used in the Cost-effectiveness Model. —Probability and incidence rate data were summarized from the literature. The THA hospital cost data were obtained from local teaching hospitals' cost accounting systems. Estimates of recurring medical costs for functionally significant hip osteoarthritis and for custodial care were derived from the literature. Results. —The THA cost-effectiveness ratio increases with age and is higher for men than for women. In the base-case scenario for 60-year-old white women who have functionally significant but not dependent hip osteoarthritis, the model predicts that THA is cost saving because of the high costs of custodial care associated with dependency due to worsening hip osteoarthritis and that the procedure increases QALE by about 6.9 years. In the base-case scenario for men aged 85 years and older, the average lifetime cost associated with THA is $9100 more than nonoperative management, with an average increase in QALE of about 2 years. Thus, the THA cost-effectiveness ratio for men aged 85 years and older is $4600 per QALY gained, less than that of procedures intended to extend life such as coronary artery bypass surgery or renal dialysis. Worst-case analysis suggests that THA remains minimally cost-effective for this oldest age category ($80 000/QALY) even if probabilities, rates, utilities, costs, and the discount rate are simultaneously varied to extreme values that bias the analysis against surgery. Conclusions. —For persons with hip osteoarthritis associated with significant functional limitation, THA can be cost saving or, at worst, cost-effective in improving QALE when both short- and long-term outcomes are considered. Further research is needed to determine whether this procedure is actually being used in this cost-effective manner, especially in older age categories. ( JAMA . 1996;275:858-865)

A Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Total Hip Arthroplasty for Osteoarthritis of the Hip

To quantify the trade-off between the expected increased short- and long-term costs and the expected increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) associated with total hip arthroplasty (THA) for persons with functionally significant hip osteoarthritis. A cost-effectiveness study was performed from the societal perspective by constructing stochastic tree, decision analytic models designed to estimate lifetime functional outcomes and costs of THA and nonoperative managements. A modified four-state American College of Rheumatology functional status classification was used to measure effectiveness. These functional classes were assigned utility values to allow the relative effectiveness of THA to be expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Lifetime costs included costs associated with primary and potential revision surgeries and long-term care costs associated with the functionally dependent class. DATA USED IN THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODEL: Probability and incidence rate data were summarized from the literature. The THA hospital cost data were obtained from local teaching hospitals' cost accounting systems. Estimates of recurring medical costs for functionally significant hip osteoarthritis and for custodial care were derived from the literature. The THA cost-effectiveness ratio increases with age and is higher for men than for women. In the base-case scenario for 60-year-old white women who have functionally significant but not dependent hip osteoarthritis, the model predicts that THA is cost saving because of the high costs of custodial care associated with dependency due to worsening hip osteoarthritis and that the procedure increases QALE by about 6.9 years. In the base-case scenario for men aged 85 years and older, the average lifetime cost associated with THA is $9100 more than nonoperative management, with an average increase in QALE of about 2 years. Thus, the THA cost-effectiveness ratio for men aged 85 years and older is $4600 per QALY gained, less than that of procedures intended to extend life such as coronary artery bypass surgery or renal dialysis. Worst-case analysis suggests that THA remains minimally cost-effective for this oldest age category ($80,000/QALY) even if probabilities, rates, utilities, costs, and the discount rate are simultaneously varied to extreme values that bias the analysis against surgery. For persons with hip osteoarthritis associated with significant functional limitation, THA can be cost saving or, at worst, cost- effective in improving QALE when both short- and long-term outcomes are considered. Further research is needed to determine whether this procedure is actually being used in this cost-effective manner, especially in older age categories.