Increase In Labor Supply Research Articles

Contingent on paradoxical policies: migrants’ trajectories to permanent residence and skilled care work in Denmark

ABSTRACT Syrian refugees and Ukrainian labour migrants are among the increasing number of migrants in Denmark who have enrolled in training programmes to become skilled care workers in response to the Danish state’s initiatives to increase labour supply for public-sector elderly care. However, stricter immigration legislation together with regulations concerning state-financed education complicate training, employment and residence for these migrants. This article explores how the Danish welfare state’s conflicting interests in and attempts at pursuing both a strict immigration policy and securing enough trained care workers in eldercare affect trajectories to skilled care work among foreign nationals residing in Denmark. Based on data from long-term ethnographic fieldwork, we demonstrate how in various ways Syrian and Ukrainian care work trainees with temporary residence face a double-sided uncertainty, as their lives in Denmark are contingent on events and decisions out of their control, such as amendments to immigration and educational policies and legislation. On the one hand, these events and decisions jeopardize the migrant trainees’ and their families’ future in Denmark. On the other hand, they offer opportunities to make new connections and acquire new knowledge and skills, which in the longer run may contribute to improving their lives in Denmark.

Moving motivated by work or proximity to family and labour market outcomes in the Netherlands

The classical human-capital model of migration posits that internal migration should lead to improved individual labour market outcomes. However, later empirical and theoretical work has emphasised that the outcomes of migration may be positive for some, but negative for others, depending on, for example, gender and the motive for moving. We investigate the labour market outcomes after moves motivated by work, moves motivated by proximity to family, and moves motivated by both work and family at the same time, compared with not moving. We use data from the Netherlands’ Housing Surveys of 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018 matched with register data (N ~ 350,000 person-years). We find that men’s and women’s moves for work, and moves for both family and work, are positively associated with outcomes in terms of individual income, employment, and labour supply (hours worked). We do not find such positive associations for moves motivated by family proximity only, but we hardly find negative associations. We do not replicate the finding of previous research for Sweden that moves for family proximity were associated with an increased likelihood of transitions out of unemployment. However, we find some evidence that women’s moves motivated by both work and family proximity are associated with an increase in labour supply.

Una caracterización de los flujos migratorios hacia España y otros países de la Unión Europea

Rationale Spain has become one of the European countries with the highest inflows of immigrants relative to its population. This article compares the characteristics of immigrants to Spain with those to other European Union (EU) countries, by origin, gender, age, education and labour-market contribution. Takeaways •In Spain immigrants are mainly from Latin America and are a more homogeneous and culturally proximate group to the destination country than in other European countries. In general, they are older, have a higher educational attainment level and women account for a larger share. •Since the global financial crisis, the average age and the educational attainment level of immigrants in the four main EU countries has risen, doing so more sharply in Spain. •The participation rate of non-nationals residing in Spain is one of the highest in the EU and, unlike in other countries, it is higher than that of the nationals, meaning they contribute more to the increase in labour supply. •Non-national workers tend to be concentrated in activities that do not require a high level of education, although recently there are indications of a slight shift to higher-qualified sectors.

Women’s Labour Market Attachment and the Gender Wealth Gap

Abstract This article examines the evolution of the gender wealth gap in Germany during the first decade of the XXI century. This period is characterized by an increase in labour supply of women and change in occupational structure due to numerous reforms undertaken by the government. We use the Firpo, Fortin, Lemieux detailed decomposition technique throughout the wealth distribution to identify the main factors explaining the gap over time. Findings indicate that an increase in the labour market participation of women and the resulting changes in the occupational structure are accompanied by positive changes in women’s wealth accumulation, which reduce the gender wealth gap. The role of permanent income decreases due to a reduction both in the gender difference in average permanent income and in gender differences in its returns. There remain substantial differences in the way women and men accumulate wealth. Policy interventions to further reduce the gap are discussed.

Climate-related Disaster and Human Capital Investment in the Global South — Household Heterogeneity and Growth

This study develops a dynamic model of climate-related disaster impacts, considering multidimensional household heterogeneity, for analyzing changes in growth and inequality in low-income countries. Focusing on human capital development, the study demonstrates the multiple impacts of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies on human capital investment, including the effect of schooling opportunities for households constrained by the subsistence consumption constraint. Through numerical simulations performed for two economies that differ in terms of human capital, modeled after Madagascar and Fiji, it is illustrated that the possibilities of involuntary unemployment and the work-learning choice drive the diversity in macroeconomic impacts of a disaster. In an economy characterized by low levels of human capital, a disaster could cause an increase in labor supply in the immediate aftermath but interrupt human capital formation, impeding long-term growth and human capital formation. Such a result contradicts prevailing intuition by demonstrating that a disaster occurring in an economy under recession may not result in a large adverse GDP impact in the short run but may negatively impact growth in the long run. On such a path, a policy of development in DRR infrastructure with appropriate taxation could reduce human-capital gaps in the long run by supporting continued post-disaster human-capital-investment opportunities for the poor.

Financing universal health care: Premiums or payroll taxes?

This paper presents a stochastic overlapping generations model with endogenous health investment to study the transition from the existing hybrid health insurance system in Germany towards a uniform system, financed by either funded or unfunded premiums or payroll taxes.Our simulation results highlight the insurance properties of payroll taxes, but also their cost in terms of labor supply distortions and moral hazard. We find that compulsory deductibles decrease aggregate welfare in Germany, although they reduce moral hazard and increase private health investment. Reform models with premiums also induce precautionary behavior and increase labor supply, but at the same time increase exposure to productivity risk. Since the introduction of a funded system is costly for transitional cohorts, unfunded premiums provide the highest efficiency gains in our framework.

Does reliable electricity mean lesser agricultural labor wages? Evidence from Indian villages

Using a panel of 1,171 villages in rural India that were surveyed in the India Human Development Surveys, I perform a difference-in-differences analysis to find that improvements in electricity reliability have a negative effect on the increase in casual agricultural labor wage rates. Changes in men’s wage rates are found to be affected more adversely than women’s, resulting in a smaller widening of the gender wage gap. I find that better electricity reliability reduces the time spent by women in fuel collection substantially which could potentially increase labor supply. The demand for labor remains unaffected by reliability, which could lead the surplus in labor supply to cause wage rates to stunt. However, I show that electrical appliances such as groundwater pumps considerably increase labor demand indicating that governments could target increasing the adoption of electric pumps along with bettering the quality of electricity to absorb the surplus labor into agriculture.

Household Labor Supply and the Value of Social Security Survivors Benefits

We combine quasi-experimental variation in spousal death and age eligibility for survivors benefits using US tax records to study the effects on American households’ labor supply and the design of social security’s survivors insurance. Benefit eligibility at the exact age of 60 induces sharp reductions in the labor supply of newly widowed households, highlighting the value of survivors benefits and the liquidity they provide following the shock. Among eligible widows, the spousal death event induces no increases in labor supply, suggesting little residual need to self-insure. Using theory, we underscore the program’s protective insurance role and its high valuation among survivors. (JEL D12, D91, G22, G51, H55, J16, J22)

An analysis of precautionary behavior in retirement decision making with an application to pension system reform

We analyze how precautionary motives affect the decisions of a risk-averse agent on saving, labor supply and retirement. In a setting where there is a random shock which affects agent disutility from work, we show that uncertainty directly affects retirement age and saving, but leaves labor supply during working age unchanged. In particular, a precautionary motive for retirement always arises, which pushes the agent to bring forward retirement in the presence of a risk on the cost of work effort. Moreover, prudence and a sufficiently high level of absolute temperance are sufficient conditions for precautionary saving. In this setting, we also study the effects of two common reforms of the pension system: an increase in pension contributions and a cut in pension benefits. The conditions for the agent to postpone retirement and increase labor supply are studied. This makes it possible to characterize the circumstances when the financial soundness of the pension system improves after these reforms.

Labour supply responses to a negative income tax in Spain

One of the major drawbacks of a Basic Income proposal is that it could induce people to reduce their labour supply. The main aim of this paper is to put forward a financially viable alternative to the current Spanish system of social protection, based on a Negative Income Tax proposal and introducing several changes in the social protection system. Using EUROMOD, the labour behavioural responses to these new conditions are studied in detail, using a structural model of labour supply.The main result is that a reform as the one described in this work will not make people to abandon the labour market, as usually argued for Basic Income proposals. Under this scheme, on the contrary, we can observe a slightly increase in labour supply. This finding has strong implications for policy. Modifying the tax-benefit system, bringing it closer to a Basic Income scheme, will produce significant improvements in inequality and poverty without a significant change in labour supply.

Disability, Immigration, and Postpandemic Labor Supply

We study the large labor force increases since 2020 among disabled workers and among foreign-born workers in the United States. We show that the increase in the disabled labor force largely reflects a change in self-reported disability status among those already in the labor force rather than an actual increase in labor supply. We conjecture that immigration will likely contribute more to labor supply in 2024 than it did before the pandemic, but less than in 2020-2023.

IMPACT OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF MIGRANTS ON THE HOST COUNTRIES’ ECONOMIES

The purpose of the article is to generally identify the nature of the impact of the economic integration of migrants on the host countries' economies. The research findings demonstrate that the economic integration of migrants has a complex and multifaceted impact on the economies of countries that receive migrants from other states for permanent or temporary residence, work, study, or other activities. It has been proven that the positive impact of the economic integration of migrants on the host countries' economies is characterized by the following processes increased labor supply and tax revenues, stimulation of economic growth, enhancement of innovation potential, and enrichment of cultural diversity. It has been established that the negative impact of economic integration of migrants on the economies of host countries is characterized by the following processes: pressure on the labor market, strain on social infrastructure, social tension, increased inequality, and capital outflow.

The effects of electronic monitoring on offenders and their families

Electronic monitoring (EM) has emerged as a popular tool for curbing the growth of large prison populations. Evidence on the causal effects of EM on criminal recidivism is, however, limited and it is unclear how this alternative to incarceration affects the labor supply of offenders and the outcomes of their family members. We study the countrywide expansion of EM in Sweden in 1997 wherein offenders sentenced to up to three months in prison were granted the option to substitute incarceration with EM. Our difference-in-differences estimates, which compare the change in the prison inflow rate of treated offenders to that of non-treated offenders with slightly longer sentences, show that the reform significantly decreased the number of incarcerations. Our main finding is that EM not only lowers criminal recidivism but also increases labor supply. Additionally, EM improves the educational attainment and early-life earnings of the children whose parents were exposed to the reform. The primary mechanisms through which EM operates appear to involve the preservation of offenders’ ties to the labor market, by reducing the barriers to both finding a job and changing employers. Our calculations suggest that the social benefits stemming from EM are about seven times larger than the fiscal savings associated with reduced prison expenditures, implying that the welfare gains from EM could be much greater than previously acknowledged.

Analysis of the Long-run Linkage Effect between Pension Insurance and Economic Growth Based on VAR Modeling

This paper conducts an empirical analysis based on the VAR model to explore the mechanism of the long-term spillover effects of our country's pension insurance on economic growth. The study reveals that the implementation of the pension insurance system can stimulate consumption and savings among the elderly, thus promoting economic growth. Additionally, it encourages increased labor supply and fosters the accumulation of human capital, exerting a positive impact on economic growth. The equity and sustainability of pension insurance can improve income distribution and reduce wealth disparity, leading to a favorable impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the empirical analysis demonstrates the long-term spillover effects of pension insurance on economic growth, providing significant support for the sustainable development of the pension insurance system and economic growth. This holds considerable theoretical and practical value for formulating pension insurance policies and promoting sustainable economic development.

Should Italy switch to a flat tax? An assessment based on a heterogeneous agents OLG model

We use a heterogeneous agents overlapping generations (OLG) model to quantitatively assess the impact of a reform in which a personal income tax with increasing marginal tax rates is replaced by a flat tax possibly complemented with a deduction. The value of the flat tax rate is set in order to balance the government budget and accordingly it increases with the value of the deduction. The model is calibrated and simulated for Italy. For low values of the deduction, aggregate labor supply increases, though this aggregate effect masks a completely different impact on the intensive and the extensive margin of labor supply: in particular, the activity rate is reduced by the introduction of a flat tax. As to inequality, it rises and this increase can be mitigated by using an higher value of the tax deduction, which however dampens down the positive effect of a flat tax on economic performance. Finally, the effect of a flat tax on social welfare crucially depends on the degree of inequality aversion embedded in the social welfare function and on the Frisch elasticity of labor supply.

Employment Effects of Incentivized Gradual Retirement Plans

Abstract We investigate the effect of Incentivized Gradual Retirement plans (GRPs) on employment. GRPs encourage later retirement of older workers by offering a reduction in working hours with only a limited decrease in net earnings and pension accrual. A second policy aim is that municipalities use this freed up capacity to hire more young employees. We exploit variation in the availability of GRPs between Dutch municipalities to identify its employment effects. We find that GRPs increase labor supply for older civil servants by almost 7 full-time weeks on a yearly basis. We do not find an increase in the hiring of young workers.

The Dynamics of Domestic Violence: Learning about the Match

Abstract We present a dynamic lifecycle model of women’s choices with respect to partnership status, labour supply and fertility when they cannot directly observe whether a given male partner is of a violent type or not. The model is estimated by the method of simulated moments using longitudinal data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. The results indicate that uncertainty about a partner’s abusive type creates incentives for women to delay fertility, reduce fertility overall, divorce more often and increase labour supply. We also study the impact of higher female wages, income support to single mothers and subsidised childcare when the mother is working. While higher wages reduce women’s overall exposure to abuse, both income support and subsidised childcare largely fail to do so by encouraging early fertility. The latter two policies instead increase the incidence of abuse towards mothers and hence the abuse exposure for children.

Research on the heterogeneity of domestic banks’ risk taking influenced by bank capital regulation based on DSGE model

ABSTRACT This article deeply integrates the characteristics of the China financial market under the background of the spread of the global new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic and integrates the multi-sector DSGE model including heterogeneous residents, manufacturers, banks, and macro-prudential supervision, and then numerically simulates the impact of technology and financial shocks on major economic indicators. Macroprudential capital regulation can help stabilize large economic waves, increase labour supply in the economic system, and restrain excessive transmission of systemic risks in the financial system. Meanwhile, the leverage ratio of banks will also change correspondingly with the price fluctuations of the real estate market. The relevant decision-making departments of the central government and the financial supervision departments coordinated in many ways to find the optimal internal balance point and increase the combined effect of effectively deflating systemic risks.

Understanding Impacts of Online Dual Practice on Health System Performance: A Qualitative Study in China

ABSTRACT The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the global development of online healthcare platforms. An increasing number of public hospital doctors are providing online services on private third-party healthcare platforms, creating a new form of dual practice—online dual practice. To explore the impacts of online dual practice on health system performance as well as potential policy responses, we undertook a qualitative approach that uses in-depth interviews and thematic analysis. Following a purposive sampling, we interviewed 57 Chinese respondents involved in online dual practice. We asked respondents for their opinions on the effects of online dual practice on access, efficiency, quality of care, and advice on regulatory policy. The results suggest that online dual practice can generate mixed impacts on health system performance. The benefits include improved accessibility due to increased labor supply of public hospital doctors, better remote access to high-quality services, and lower privacy concerns. It can improve efficiency and quality by optimizing patient flows, reducing repetitive tasks, and improving the continuity of care. However, the potential distraction from designated work at public hospitals, inappropriate use of virtual care, and opportunistic physician behaviors may undermine overall accessibility, efficiency, and quality. Countries should mitigate these adverse consequences via regulations that are appropriate to their healthcare system context, policy priority, and governance capacity.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact of Agricultural Labour Migration on Income Levels of Farmers in Telangana

The present study was undertaken during 25th March 2019 to 25th March 2021 to examine the impact of agricultural labour migration due to COVID-19 pandemic on the income levels of farmers. Both primary and secondary data were used in the study, multistage sampling technique was used in selection of district, mandals and villages. Tools and techniques like tabular analysis, gross returns and net returns were used. Economic impact on farmers in the study area was studied by selecting three major crops viz., Paddy, Cotton and Maize. During the COVID-19 pandemic, in the kharif and rabi season, in all the three major crops, the labour availability was increased when compared with the period of before the pandemic. This situation was appeared due to reverse migration during pandemic. The average wage rates received by the agricultural labourers for almost all farm operations in case of paddy, maize and cotton crops were decreased due to increase in labour supply due to reverse migration. The available man days also clearly got increased for almost all the operations except harvesting of paddy and cotton crops. In case of paddy and cotton crops, net returns were found to increase. In case of Maize crop, the gross and net returns were decreased due to increase in total operation costs and decrease in price per quintal during rabi season of the pandemic period respectively.