Increase In Hurricane Intensity Research Articles

Assessment of the effectiveness of wood pole repair using FRP considering the impact of climate change on decay and hurricane risk

Electric power distribution systems are vulnerable to disruption due to severe weather events, especially hurricanes. Such vulnerability is expected to increase over time due to the impact of climate change on hurricanes and the decay of wood poles that support the distribution lines. This study investigates the effectiveness of using fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) sleeve to reinforce wood poles subjected to decay and hurricane hazard to restore their lost strength and extend their effective service life. The potential impact of climate change on the pole decay rate and the intensity and frequency of hurricanes is also considered. The optimal FRP repair time based on the structural reliability of the poles is also determined. Three locations with varying climates are chosen to evaluate and compare the results: Miami, Charleston, and New York City. The results show that in all three locations, the application of the FRP sleeve can more than double the service life of the pole depending on the time of the repair. The results also show that climate change significantly increases the vulnerability of the pole. The probability of failure of the pole at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5 emission scenario in Miami, Charleston, and New York City increase by about 30%, 70%, and 73%, respectively, compared to a no climate change scenario. If climate change is only assumed to affect the decay of the pole, i.e., no change in hurricane hazard intensity, the corresponding increases in failure probability are 5%, 22%, and 20% in Miami, Charleston, and New York City, respectively. This implies that most of the impact of climate change on pole failure risk is due to the increase in hurricane intensity. The impact of climate change on decay is found to be comparatively small. It increases with time as variation in temperature and precipitation becomes more prominent towards the end of the 21st century. The optimization results show that the optimal FRP repair time depends on how the FRP affects the pole's decay rate. If the FRP can significantly slow down the wood decay rate, the optimal time of repair is at the beginning of the pole's life cycle. If the FRP has no impact on the wood decay rate, it is better to repair the pole after significant decay has occurred.

Post-hurricane relief facilitates invasion and establishment of two invasive alien vertebrate species in the Commonwealth of Dominica, West Indies

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a main driver of current global change and contribute significantly to decreases in biodiversity worldwide. To prevent new introductions and establishment of IAS, it is important to identify mechanisms of incursion. On 18 September 2017, Hurricane Maria, a category-5 Atlantic storm, made landfall on the Commonwealth of Dominica causing widespread destruction. Responding to the post-hurricane situation, countries and organizations provided a large range of aid including funds, medical and security support, and relief supplies. Here we report the incursion and establishment of two vertebrate IAS on Dominica during the aftermath of Hurricane Maria—the Common Green Iguana (Iguana iguana) and Cuban Treefrog (Osteopilus septentrionalis)—representing a 20% increase in vertebrate alien species on Dominica. We also report observations of Venezuela Snouted Treefrogs (Scinax x-signatus). Collectively, these species were found at four sites spread along the Caribbean and south coast of Dominica, within or near ports of entry. Invasions of I. iguana and O. septentrionalis are especially worrisome given their known impacts on native species on other Caribbean islands. Though understandable given the human impact caused by severe weather events, these incursions suggest that biosecurity is not implemented by aid-facilitating countries and organizations. With the predicted increase in hurricane intensity and frequency, we suggest basic biosecurity and training programs to reduce incursion threats of IAS during future relief and recovery initiatives. For Dominica, we recommend mitigation programs with additional biological surveys to control and better understand the number of incursion and their impact on post-Maria Dominica.

Fatalities of neglect: adapt to more intense hurricanes under global warming?

This article examines whether the humanity can adapt to more intense hurricanes that would result from global warming. From the Australian cyclone reports in the past four decades, we find that the lower the income, the larger the number of fatalities from a hurricane. Negative binomial regressions show that the proportional change in fatality in response to one millibar increase in hurricane intensity is +5.7% while the proportional change in fatality in response to a one thousand dollar increase in income per capita is −4.8%. Further, choice models reveal that adaptation measures such as a hurricane trajectory projection and evacuation orders were adopted more often when a hurricane approached a high-income urban region. This article finds that a large number of TC fatalities are largely due to neglecting low income regions such as those destroyed by Typhoon Haiyan. A well-designed adaptation policy will play a critical role in reducing the number of fatalities from hurricanes under future global warming.

Hurricanes and rising global temperatures

Theoretical and modeling assessments consistently point toward an increase in hurricane intensity with global warming (1⇓–3). For the North Atlantic, the annual number of the most intense hurricanes has been predicted to increase by more than 50% for each 1-°C increase in surface temperatures (2, 4). However, there is no consensus on whether current hurricanes have responded to the substantial global warming that has already occurred (2, 3); some studies find a substantial increase in intense systems (5⇓–7) whereas others find none (8, 9). This presents a conundrum: if we cannot find a current signal, how can we interpret, or even accept, the future projections?

A roadmap to assess the economic cost of climate change with an application to hurricanes in the United States

This paper presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, namely a homogenous 10 percent increase in hurricane potential intensity, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct economic losses. The paper also discusses several adaptation strategies that could be implemented to limit these losses. Finally, a modified Input-Output model is used to investigate indirect losses due to macroeconomic mechanisms and feedbacks. This model translates the changes in direct losses into changes in total losses. The model suggests that total losses increase non-linearly, amplifying the role of the most extreme events. The paper then proposes adaptation strategies that can reduce indirect losses by improving the ability of the economy to reconstruct and deal with the consequences of disaster.

Hurricane driven changes in land cover create biogeophysical climate feedbacks

Hurricanes can devastate thousands of hectares of forested area producing changes beyond simply vegetation damage and biomass loss. This study reports changes in regional climate associated with Hurricane Rita which made landfall on the Gulf Coastal Plain on September 24th, 2005. Results demonstrate that over severely disturbed forested areas, biogeophysical effects produced by Rita created anomalous precipitation patterns, with a decrease in precipitation the following winter, and an increase during the subsequent summer season. The dominant biogeophysical effect was a change in albedo caused by ∼14,000 km2 of disturbed forested area (downed and dead, snapped and structurally damaged trees) from Rita, equivalent to a committed carbon release of 32 to 43% of the net annual U.S. sink in forest trees. As recent studies project a likely increase in hurricane intensity during the 21st century, understanding the potential impact of forest damage from hurricanes on regional climate is important.

Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Current Debate on the Linkage between Global Warming and Hurricanes

Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Current Debate on the Linkage between Global Warming and Hurricanes

Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity

Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity

Hurricane impacts on dynamics, structure and carbon sequestration potential of forest ecosystems in Southern New England, USA

The observed increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic calls for an evaluation of the effects that these storms have on temperate forest ecosystems where much of the terrestrial carbon is sequestered. We use a data-based forest simulator to analyse the effects of both historical and potentially future hurricane disturbance regimes on the structure, dynamics and carbon sequestration potential of Southern New England forests. Baseline estimates of carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass from our simulations are in line with forest inventory data and range from 0.93 to 1.68 tons C ha−1 yr−1 with the greatest rates in areas subject to the most severe wind disturbance. To the degree that carbon in downed timber is incorporated into the soil, an increase in severe storms is likely to enhance carbon sequestration potential in forests in this region by generating conditions that foster tree growth. However, unsalvaged timber can also increase fire risk, thereby escalating the potential for carbon losses to the atmosphere. Effects of hurricane disturbance on community composition are complex and highlight the role that life history traits play in mediating species’ idiosyncratic responses to wind disturbance. Incorporating disturbance in estimates of carbon sequestration in forests will improve congruence between models and data.

Global Warming May Be Homing In on Atlantic Hurricanes

WASHINGTON, D.C.-- New analyses show that most storm records have been skewed, producing the impression that tropical cyclones have been getting stronger globally. But reanalyzed records from the Atlantic Ocean going back to 1983 still show a sharp increase in hurricane intensity as tropical Atlantic waters warmed. (Read more.)

Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming Is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active and costly season on record. Recent publications linking an increase in hurricane intensity to increasing tropical sea surface temperatures have fueled the debate on whether or not global warming is causing an increase in hurricane intensity. Because of the substantial implications of the hurricane–global warming issue for society and the immediate policy relevance associated with decision making related to Hurricane Katrina, attacks and rebuttals related to this research are being made in the media and on the World Wide Web without the rigor or accountability expected of scientific discourse. In this paper, we aim to promote a balanced and thoughtful examination of this subject by clarifying the debate surrounding the subject as to whether or not global warming is causing an increase in global hurricane intensity, illustrating a methodology of hypothesis testing to address multiple criticisms of a complex hypothesis that involves a causal chain, and providing a case study of the impact of politics, the media, and the World Wide Web on the scientific process.

Estimated return periods for Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina is one of the most destructive natural disaster in U.S. history. The infrequency of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical probability estimates of the next big one will be unreliable. Here we use an extreme‐value model together with interpolated best‐track (HURDAT) records to show that a hurricane of Katrina's intensity or stronger can be expected to occur, on average, once every 21 years somewhere along the Gulf coast from Texas through Alabama and once every 14 years somewhere along the entire coast from Texas through Maine. The model predicts a 100‐year return level of 83 ms−1 (186 mph) during globally warm years and 75 ms−1 (168 mph) during globally cool years. This difference is consistent with models predicting an increase in hurricane intensity with increasing greenhouse warming.