Increase In Ground Temperature Research Articles

Grey correlation analysis of the main influencing factors of wax deposition of waxy crude oil and determination of pigging period based on dynamic analysis

Normal temperature gathering and transportation has significant advantages in reducing energy consumption and cost. Due to the high wax content of crude oil in carbonate reservoirs, obvious wax deposition will occur in the process of gathering and transportation at room temperature. In this paper, according to the component analysis results of crude oil on site, the HEATANALOGY wax deposition model was used to calculate the wax deposition of different gathering pipelines. The main influencing factors of wax deposition were analyzed by grey correlation method. Finally, according to the pigging mechanical balance model, the safe pigging period is derived, and the relationship diagram of different pipe diameters, throughput and ground temperature is drawn. The results show that the wellhead temperature has the greatest influence on the initial wax deposition position and the peak wax deposition position of the pipe section. The flow rate has the greatest influence on the maximum wax deposition thickness of the tube wall. According to the relationship between the working conditions and the pigging cycle, it can be found that with the increase of the throughput, the pigging cycle decreases first and then increases. With the increase of ground temperature, the pigging cycle increases.

Research Progress and Visualization Analysis of Spontaneous Combustion of Water-Immersed Coal

ABSTRACT One of the most catastrophic events that can occur during coal mining is a fire triggered by spontaneous combustion of the coal. Due to complex geological conditions, some coal mines in China have the characteristics of shallow burial and small spacing between coal seams. With the increase of mining depth, there will be many cracks in the overlying goaf. Surface water and groundwater flow into the goaf along these fissures. After long-term water immersion, the increase of ground temperature will lead to the spontaneous combustion of coal. A thorough analysis of the impact of water immersion on the spontaneous combustion of coal necessitates a review of the most recent findings in this field. The review will promote the further development of the theory and prevention of spontaneous combustion of water-immersed coal and provide theoretical help for monitoring and preventing spontaneous combustion of water-immersed coal. The creation of water-immersed coal and the reason for spontaneous combustion is investigated, as are the characteristics of the water accumulation in the goaf and their origins. The research status of spontaneous combustion of water-immersed coal is presented and illustrated domestically and internationally. On this basis, the theoretical and experimental research directions, problems, and prospects of spontaneous combustion of water-immersed coal are put forward. This study can provide a theoretical basis for monitoring, preventing, and controlling the spontaneous combustion of water-immersed coal, and provide a reference for reducing energy waste.

Investigation on the bearing capacity evolution of building pile foundation during permafrost degradation

The warming and melting of permafrost due to climate warming pose a considerable threat to the integrity of the Pan Arctic building, thus jeopardizing sustainable development. The increase in ambient temperature in permafrost areas will cause deterioration in the bearing capacity of building pile foundations. Considering the continuous deepening of the active layer (za), the present paper used small-scale physical modeling to investigate the potential variation of bearing capacity and load transfer mechanism of pile foundations under the scenario of continuous degradation of permafrost. The ultimate bearing capacity of a single pile and the undrained shear strength of the ground under different za are estimated by cone penetration tests. In the static load test of single piles, the axial load-settlement, axial force of pile shaft, and earth pressure at the pile tip are measured. The results show that the rise in ground temperature and the deepening of the za shorten the elastic and elastic-plastic stages of the load-displacement curve, resulting in a gradual decline in the bearing capacity of a single pile. The pile-soil interface temperature is always higher than the adjacent ground temperature at the same depth. Adfreezing force of the pile-soil interface decreases due to the increase in ground temperature and water content. With the deepening of za, the peak point of the shaft resistance decreases from −30 cm to −60 cm under the ultimate state. Meanwhile, with more axial load transfer along the pile shaft to the pile tip, the share ratio of pile tip resistance to ultimate stress gradually increases. In addition, the temperature rise of frozen soil at the pile tip accelerates the settling rate of the pile, which eventually causes the pile foundation failure.

Characteristics of Ozone Concentration in Shanghai and Its Associated Atmospheric Circulation Background During Summer Half-years from 2006 to 2021

It is of great importance to scientifically evaluate the impact of weather and climate conditions on the occurrence of O3 pollution in order to improve the accuracy of O3 pollution forecasts， as well as to reasonably control and reduce the adverse effects of O3 pollution. The characteristics of O3 concentration and climate background were analyzed based on daily O3 concentration data， meteorological factors， and NCEP/NCER reanalysis data from 2006 to 2021 in Shanghai. In addition， the differences in atmospheric circulation situations during years with anomalous O3 concentrations were compared and diagnosed from the perspective of climatology. Additionally， the monthly O3 concentration prediction model （seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors， SARIMAX） was further established by adding the key meteorological factors. The results indicated that both the whole-year average and summer half-year average O3 concentrations in Shanghai were increasing with fluctuation， and the summer half-year average was much higher than the annual average， up to 36.2%. Furthermore， there was a significant negative correlation between O3 concentration and wind speed （correlation coefficient of -0.826） and a significant positive correlation with the frequency of static wind and the number of days in which the low cloud cover was less than 20% （correlation coefficients of 0.836 and 0.724， respectively）. The monthly mean O3 concentration had a clear periodicity， showing a pattern with a high concentration in the middle period （April to September） and a low concentration at the beginning and end of the periods. High O3 concentration years （2013-2021） were accompanied by more polluted days， lower average wind speed， more small wind （≤1.5 m·s-1） days， more days of low cloud cover of less than 20%， more days of high temperature， higher direct solar radiation， and more sunshine hours. When the location of the stronger West Pacific subtropical high was westward and southward in the summer half-year， Shanghai was influenced by an anomalous westerly wind， which was not conducive to the transportation of clean air from the sea to Shanghai and thus led to the high concentration of O3 pollution. When the long wave radiation emitted from the ground was low in the summer half-year， it was favorable for the increase in ground temperature and caused a high concentration of O3 pollution. Adding direct solar radiation， maximum temperature， and wind speed as exogenous variables to the monthly O3 forecast model could significantly improve the effectiveness of the monthly forecast， with the root mean square error decreasing by 47.7% （from 22 to 11.5） and the correlation coefficient increasing by 11.2% （from 0.819 to 0.911）， which could be applied to the practical prediction of monthly O3 concentration.

Research on thermal performance of ground source heat pump based on artificial neural network predictive model

The long-term operation of ground source heat pump systems can affect the soil environment, causing a decrease in heat transfer performance of underground heat exchangers. Based on a real project, this study aims to determine the actual soil thermal property and propose optimization schemes. A combination of 1D-3D heat transfer model and artificial neural network model was proposed. This research confirms the possibility of using the outlet water temperature as input to predict the soil thermal property parameters. Through model calculations, the soil comprehensive thermal conductivity of 1.78 W/(m·K) and comprehensive heat capacity of 1909.8 J/(kg·K) was determined. On this basis, the impacts of burial depth, spacing, and initial ground temperature on the heat transfer of the underground heat exchangers was investigated. The results showed that the heat exchange is logarithmically related to the depth and spacing of the boreholes, but the heat exchange decreases as the initial ground temperature increases, following a quadratic function relationship. For the current hourly cooling demand, it is recommended to have the pile spacing of 5.5 m and the depth of 110 m. With the addition of a cooling tower that takes on 2/3 cooling load, the system's average coefficient of performance can reach 5.62, resulting in a 19.6 % improvement.

Deformations caused by subsurface heat islands: a study on the Chicago Loop

Deformations caused by subsurface heat islands: a study on the Chicago Loop

Long-term operation analysis of a ground source heat pump with an air source heat pump as an auxiliary heat source in a warm region

With the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality, there are growing expectations for ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems. This study analyzed the long-term operational performance of a GSHP in combination with a modular-type ground source heat pump (ASHP) installed at a university in a warmer region of Japan. As results, in warmer regions, as the cooling load tends to be greater than the heating load and the electrical consumption heat from the GSHP is added to the rejection heat to the ground, the ground heat balance is more likely to be unbalanced than it would be in colder regions. Predominant rejection into the ground for extraction from the ground resulted in an increase in ground temperature and a decrease in the SCOP of the GSHP during cooling periods. However, a decrease in the cooling load in one season considerably reduced the ground temperature during cooling in the following season. Because the module-type ASHP was able to quickly control its thermal output, it unexpectedly reacted HVAC load fluctuations before the GSHP output control. This lowered the load factor of the GSHP and caused the ASHP to start and stop repeatedly at extremely low loads.

Impact of climate change on shallow ground hydro-thermal properties

Changes in hydro-thermal properties in the unsaturated zone of the shallow ground impacts the stability and serviceability of structures placed within that zone. Ground response to climate change is an important consideration that has a bearing on the soil dynamics and the depth of the reactive zone. In this study, a numerical model was developed in VADOSE/w to simulate suction, moisture content and temperature variation in soil under changing climatic conditions. Weather patterns in three 10-year periods, 1990–2000, 2030–2040 and 2070–2080, were considered. Six sites from Australia with varying climatic conditions were chosen to predict the soil behaviour. Four different criteria were developed to determine the equilibrium suction and reactive zone depth. Predictions indicated that there will be an increase in suction and ground temperature, while soil moisture content decreases in the future. A criterion based on moisture content variation deems more appropriate to demarcate the reactive zone depth. Both equilibrium suction and reactive zone depth tend to increase under the predicted climatic conditions. The influence of depth to water table on equilibrium suction was highlighted. It is recommended that soil characteristics and depth to water table should be considered along with climate indices when estimating ground suction.

Performance evaluation of different configurations of solar humidification-dehumidification desalination system with subsurface condenser

The solar humidification-dehumidification desalination system with a subsurface condenser is a promising renewable energy-based desalination system. This desalination system is particularly suitable for condensation irrigation in greenhouses, especially where conventional energy sources are limited. A computational model of the system comprising a horizontal solar film evaporator and a subsurface condenser is developed. A previously proposed hybrid analytical–numerical model for horizontal ground heat exchangers is modified for the subsurface condenser. An experimental setup of the subsurface condenser is also built and used to verify the developed model of the subsurface condenser. The developed model is then used to evaluate the long-term performance of several closed-loop configurations of the system and compare it with an open-loop system. It is demonstrated that the average daily water yield and Gained Output Ratio (GOR) of the closed-loop system are 115 % and 127 % higher than the open-loop system, respectively; however, the ground temperature increases significantly, which can lead to decreased respiration and root growth. According to the simulation results, using the air-cooled condenser, internal heat exchanger, and the hybrid system with both the air-cooled condenser and internal heat exchanger enhances the freshwater produced and GOR by 6.0 %, 6.3 %, and 10.8 %, respectively. The hybrid system outperforms other configurations and leads to only a 2.0 °C increase in the ground temperature over ten years of the system operation.

Large herbivores on permafrost— a pilot study of grazing impacts on permafrost soil carbon storage in northeastern Siberia

The risk of carbon emissions from permafrost is linked to an increase in ground temperature and thus in particular to thermal insulation by vegetation, soil layers and snow cover. Ground insulation can be influenced by the presence of large herbivores browsing for food in both winter and summer. In this study, we examine the potential impact of large herbivore presence on the soil carbon storage in a thermokarst landscape in northeastern Siberia. Our aim in this pilot study is to conduct a first analysis on whether intensive large herbivore grazing may slow or even reverse permafrost thaw by affecting thermal insulation through modifying ground cover properties. As permafrost soil temperatures are important for organic matter decomposition, we hypothesize that herbivory disturbances lead to differences in ground-stored carbon. Therefore, we analyzed five sites with a total of three different herbivore grazing intensities on two landscape forms (drained thermokarst basin, Yedoma upland) in Pleistocene Park near Chersky. We measured maximum thaw depth, total organic carbon content, δ13C isotopes, carbon-nitrogen ratios, and sediment grain-size composition as well as ice and water content for each site. We found the thaw depth to be shallower and carbon storage to be higher in intensively grazed areas compared to extensively and non-grazed sites in the same thermokarst basin. First data show that intensive grazing leads to a more stable thermal ground regime and thus to increased carbon storage in the thermokarst deposits and active layer. However, the high carbon content found within the upper 20 cm on intensively grazed sites could also indicate higher carbon input rather than reduced decomposition, which requires further studies including investigations of the hydrology and general ground conditions existing prior to grazing introduction. We explain our findings by intensive animal trampling in winter and vegetation changes, which overcompensate summer ground warming. We conclude that grazing intensity—along with soil substrate and hydrologic conditions—might have a measurable influence on the carbon storage in permafrost soils. Hence the grazing effect should be further investigated for its potential as an actively manageable instrument to reduce net carbon emission from permafrost.

Analysis of source distribution of high carbon monoxide events using airborne and surface observations in Korea

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a key tracer of anthropogenic pollution, and it indirectly affects climate change. Anmyeon-do (AMY, 36.54° N, 126.33° E), a World Meteorological Organization/Global Atmosphere Watch Program (WMO/GAW) regional background station in Korea, provides continuous observations of CO mole fractions at the surface and vertical profiles within 0.5–9 km that are also collected by aircraft campaigns. The vertical profiles collected in 2019 were analyzed using meteorological parameters such as vertical velocity and boundary layer height (BLH), and a strong relationship was observed among them; however, the vertical distribution, which was influenced by unexpected strong pollution plumes, did not exhibit a strong relationship with vertical velocity and BLH. On November 16, we captured a strong CO signal within the boundary layer and at approximately 2 km above the BLH, where vertical profiles of the aerosol scattering coefficient at 550 nm were simultaneously observed with the same vertical structure. To identify the origins and source types of the stratification of the pollution plume for CO and aerosol, we also analyzed surface in situ observations of particle size distributions and reactive gases (NOx, O3, and SO2) as well as the column averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon monoxide (XCO) and measurements of aerosol optical depth obtained from the tropospheric monitoring instrument (TROPOMI) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, respectively. The high CO event within the BLH, including observations at the surface site, was attributed to domestic burning sources. Convective uplifting of industrial fossil fuel emissions from eastern China was responsible for the high CO dry mole fraction in the low free troposphere (FT) and the elevated aerosol scattering coefficient. Statistical analyses of one-year surface in situ observations of CO reveal that CO-emission sources from eastern China contributed to extremely high CO spikes (≥80th percentile of CO or ≥ 350 ppb, approximately) in 2019. Therefore, we concluded that emissions from eastern China have a potentially leading role in the observed high pollution events at the surface and the lower FT over the AMY station in 2019. The increase in ground temperature, with the acceleration of the global warming process, can intensify the convective uplifting of pollution plumes from emission source regions to FT over East Asian regions. In addition, such an occurrence of the stratification of the atmospheric pollution plume in the troposphere should be considered in future studies on radiative forcing to improve air-quality forecasting in this region.

Breeding ground temperature rises, more than habitat change, are associated with spatially variable population trends in two species of migratory bird

Habitat loss and climate change are key drivers of global biodiversity declines but their relative importance has rarely been examined. We attempted to attribute spatially divergent population trends of two Afro‐Palaearctic migrant warbler species, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus and Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, to changes in breeding grounds climate or habitat. We used bird counts from over 4000 sites across the UK between 1994 and 2017, monitored as part of the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey. We modelled Willow Warbler and Common Chiffchaff population size and growth in relation to habitat, climate and weather. We then used the abundance model coefficients and observed environmental changes to determine the extent to which spatially varying population trends in England and Scotland were consistent with attribution to climate and habitat changes. Both species' population size and growth correlated with habitat, climate and weather on their breeding grounds. Changes in habitat, in particular woodland expansion, could be linked to small population increases for both species in England and Scotland. Both species' populations correlated more strongly with climate than weather, and both had an optimum breeding season temperature: 11°C for Willow Warbler and around 13.5°C for Common Chiffchaff (with marginally different predictions from population size and growth models). Breeding ground temperature increases, therefore, had the potential to have caused some of the observed Willow Warbler declines in England (where the mean breeding season temperature was 12.7°C) and increases in Scotland (mean breeding season temperature was 10.2°C), and some of the differential rates of increase for Common Chiffchaff. However, much of the variation in species' population abundance and trends were not well predicted by our models and could be due to other factors, such as species interactions, habitat and climate change in their wintering grounds and on migration. This study provides evidence that the effect of climate change on a species may vary spatially and may switch from being beneficial to being detrimental if a temperature threshold is exceeded.

Effect of Decreasing the Interception of Solar Illuminance by Vegetation on Ground Temperature in Degraded Grasslands

Reduced vegetation cover caused by grassland degradation results in the interception of solar illuminance significantly decreasing, then leading to an increase in ground temperature, which has a significant impact on biological growth and regional climate. Based on the field experiment, we explore the interception of solar illuminance by grasslands with three degrees of degradation and its effect on the soil temperature. Solar illuminance at various heights and times was measured to obtain the interception by vegetation, which included reduction by physical shielding and consumption by the plants’ life activities. Solar illuminance in the subareas sprayed with herbicide was merely reduced by physical shielding, and the difference in solar illuminance interception between normally growing grasslands and fatal grasslands was used for the plants’ life activities. This method described above was almost the first to be used for the exploration of the functional allocation of solar illuminance interception. The percentage of solar illuminance interception was largest in the non-degraded grassland (80–95% at different times), including a 50–60% reduction on account of physical shielding and a 20–45% consumption by the grass’s life activities. Light interception by grassland vegetation directly reduced the grassland temperature. The increment of ground temperature reaches 4–13 °C when a non-degraded grassland turns into a severely degraded grassland.

Providing renewable cooling in an office building with a Ground–Source heat pump system hybridized with natural ventilation & personal comfort systems

A ground–source heat pump system (GSHP) can be an alternative to air–source heat pumps (ASHP), as exchanging heat with the ground instead of with the air can result in higher coefficients of performance (COP). However, unbalanced loads can significantly shift the temperature profile in the ground, decreasing the GSHP’s overall performance. Hybrid systems can reduce the imbalanced loads and improve performance. This study proposed the use of personal comfort systems (PCS) and natural ventilation (NV) to decrease the thermal load imbalance in a cooling–dominated building.Building energy simulations were used to assess the performance of eight renewable heating and cooling solutions in three Portuguese cities (Porto, Lisbon and Faro): (1) ASHP, (2) GSHP, (3) ASHP–PCS, (4) GSHP–PCS, (5) ASHP–NV, (6) GSHP–NV, (7) ASHP–PCS–NV, (8) GSHP–PCS–NV. The simulation results show that without hybridization, the use of the GSHP resulted in an increase in ground temperature of more than 20 °C, over 50 years, which decreased its COP and rendered it unable to supply the full cooling load, and may not be acceptable in environmental terms. The use of either PCS or NV for hybrid cooling decreased the thermal cooling load and increased the energy efficiency of the GSHP system relative to the equivalent ASHP–hybrid. However, full coverage of the cooling load was still not always possible, as ground heat build–up was still high. Hybridization with both NV and PCS allowed full coverage of the thermal load by the GSHP. Both the cooling load and final energy needs decreased by over 90%, and the increase in ground temperature was limited to about 6 °C.

The shifting mosaic of ice-wedge degradation and stabilization in response to infrastructure and climate change, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska, USA

We studied processes of ice-wedge degradation and stabilization at three sites adjacent to road infrastructure in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska, USA. We examined climatic, environmental, and subsurface conditions and evaluated vulnerability of ice wedges to thermokarst in undisturbed and road-affected areas. Vulnerability of ice wedges strongly depends on the structure and thickness of soil layers above ice wedges, including the active, transient, and intermediate layers. In comparison with the undisturbed area, sites adjacent to the roads had smaller average thicknesses of the protective intermediate layer (4 cm vs. 9 cm), and this layer was absent above almost 60% of ice wedges (vs. ∼45% in undisturbed areas). Despite the strong influence of infrastructure, ice-wedge degradation is a reversible process. Deepening of troughs during ice-wedge degradation leads to a substantial increase in mean annual ground temperatures but not in thaw depths. Thus, stabilization of ice wedges in the areas of cold continuous permafrost can occur despite accumulation of snow and water in the troughs. Although thermokarst is usually more severe in flooded areas, higher plant productivity, more litter, and mineral material (including road dust) accumulating in the troughs contribute to formation of the intermediate layer, which protects ice wedges from further melting.

Experimental Study on Thermal Insulation Effect of the Buried Oil-Gas Pipelines in Permafrost Regions

In permafrost regions, long distance buried pipelines are widely used to transport oil and natural gas resources. However, pipeline problems occur frequently due to the complicated surrounding environment and transportation requirement of positive temperature. In this study, a thermal insulation layer was applied to mitigate permafrost degeneration around the buried oil-gas pipelines. Based on engineering background of the Sebei-Xining-Lanzhou natural gas pipeline in China, an indoor model test was designed and carried out in which many key indices, such as the temperature regime, vertical displacement, pipeline wall stress, and water content, were closely monitored. The test results indicate that the large heat loss of the buried pipeline produces a rapid increase in ground temperatures which seriously reduces the bearing capacity of the permafrost foundation. The buried oil-gas pipelines with a thermal insulation layer can effectively reduce the thawing range and vertical displacement of the permafrost foundation around the buried pipelines, so as to control the stress of the pipeline wall in the normal range and protect the safe and stable operation of the buried oil-gas pipelines. The experimental results can serve as a reference for the construction, operation, and maintenance of buried oil-gas pipelines in permafrost regions.

Increased mean annual temperatures in 2014–2019 indicate permafrost thaw in Alaskan national parks

ABSTRACT Rising temperatures in the Arctic can result in thaw of permafrost, with widespread implications for ecosystems and infrastructure. We analyzed mean annual air and ground temperatures in the eight northernmost national parks in Alaska using data from thirty-three National Park Service climate monitoring stations and eight National Weather Service stations. Mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) from 2014 to 2019 increased in a stepwise fashion relative to the preceding thirty-year period by at least 1°C at all locations in the study area; the increase was near 2°C in Denali National Park and most of the Arctic Alaska parks and 3°C in the far western coastal areas of the Arctic parks. The increase in mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) was approximately equal to the increase in MAAT in windswept tundra areas with minimal snow, whereas under deeper taiga and alpine snowpacks the increase in MAGT was about half as large as the increase in MAAT. If the warm temperatures observed during 2014 to 2019 persist, there will be widespread degradation of permafrost in portions of these national parks and in similar environments across Alaska.

Hybridization of Heat Pump Systems With Natural Ventilation To Improve Energy Efficiency in Cooling Dominated Buildings

Building foundation piles can be used as heat exchangers in ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems to provide highly efficient renewable heating and cooling (H&C). Unbalanced H&C loads lead to heat build-up in the ground, decreasing the system's overall performance. In this study, the introduction of natural ventilation (NV) has been examined to decrease cooling load imbalance in cooling-dominated buildings to improve system efficiency. Building energy simulations estimated the H&C loads for an office building in three Portuguese cities: Lisbon, Porto and Faro, yielding heating loads of 0.2–3.6 MWh/year and cooling loads of 260–450 MWh/year. Four renewable H&C technology scenarios were used to assess energy performance: (1) an air-source heat pump (ASHP) system; (2) a GSHP system utilizing energy piles; (3) hybrid ASHP-NV and (4) hybrid GSHP-NV. Over 50 years of operation, in Scenario (1) COP values of 2.45–2.55 (heating) and 3.62–4.15 (cooling) were obtained. In (2), COP values increased to 4.15–4.34 (heating) but fell to 3.36–3.79 (cooling), which increased annual final energy needs by 7–8%. Unbalanced cooling loads increased the ground temperature by 21–24 °C, which is unlikely to be acceptable. Compared to (1), introducing NV reduced cooling loads by 65–90% in Scenarios (3) and (4), with the final energy needs decreasing by 59–80% and 62–88%, respectively. A further benefit of the GSHP-NV hybrid is that the ground temperature increase was limited to 8‑12 °C. For cooling, the COP in (3) decreased compared to (1) (3.14–3.69), while in (4), COP improved to 3.45–6.10. This study concludes that hybrid GSHP-NV systems should be considered in some cooling-dominated scenarios.

Modeling Present and Future Permafrost Distribution at the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

AbstractPermafrost, a key component of Arctic ecosystems, is currently affected by climate warming and anticipated to undergo further significant changes in this century. The most pronounced changes are expected to occur in the transition zone between the discontinuous and continuous types of permafrost. We apply a transient temperature dynamic model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of permafrost conditions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska—a region currently characterized by continuous permafrost in its northern part and discontinuous permafrost in the south. We calibrate model parameters using a variational data assimilation technique exploiting historical ground temperature measurements collected across the study area. The model is then evaluated with a separate control set of the ground temperature data. Calibrated model parameters are distributed across the domain according to ecosystem types. The forcing applied to our model consists of historic monthly temperature and precipitation data and climate projections based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Simulated near‐surface permafrost extent for the 2000–2010 decade agrees well with existing permafrost maps and previous Alaska‐wide modeling studies. Future projections suggest a significant increase (3.0°C under RCP 4.5 and 4.4°C under RCP 8.5 at the 2 m depth) in mean decadal ground temperature on average for the peninsula for the 2090–2100 decade when compared to the period of 2000–2010. Widespread degradation of the near‐surface permafrost is projected to reduce its extent at the end of the 21st century to only 43% of the peninsula's area under RCP 4.5 and 8% under RCP 8.5.

Changes in Climatology, Snow Cover, and Ground Temperatures at High Alpine Locations

Knowledge about changes in ground temperatures under a changing climate are important for many environmental, economic and infrastructure applications and can be estimated by transient numerical simulations. However, a full annual cycle of precipitation data is needed to achieve this, yet is often unavailable in high alpine regions where a lack of infrastructure precludes installation of heated instruments capable of measuring the solid precipitation component. This paper presents a method to reconstruct a full year precipitation dataset at high alpine weather stations, which is then used to model ground temperature and snow depth for 16 alpine sites in Switzerland for the past and three climate scenarios. Differences in the possible temperature trajectories are highlighted with a focus on elevation and regional climatic differences within Switzerland. Snow height and ground temperatures under a changing climate are modelled with the one- dimensional physical model SNOWPACK by applying a delta change signal to the meteorological data set obtained from the CH2011 climate scenarios of Switzerland. All sites showed a decrease of snow cover, a shortening of the snow season and an increase in ground temperature to the end of the century. Sites in the inner alpine regions of Grisons were found to be less sensitive to climate change than sites in the western Alps. The magnitude of reduction of mean snow height depends mainly on location, whereas for the contraction of the snow season elevation is the key factor. It could be shown that the temperature - precipitation combination as expressed in the snow dynamics explain changes in ground temperatures more than the individual changes in either parameter. Alpine meadow and thin snow cover appear to delay warming of the ground.