Increase In Global Surface Temperature Research Articles

Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization

The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed requires rigour. Here CMIP6 simulations of peak-and-decline scenarios are used to examine the time needed to robustly detect three climate milestones: (1) the slowdown of global warming; (2) the end of global surface temperature increase; and (3) peak concentration of CO2. It is estimated that it will take 40 to 60 years after a simulated slowdown in warming rate, to robustly detect ( >95% change) the signal in the global average temperature record. Detecting when warming has stopped will also be difficult and it takes until the mid 22nd century to have enough data to conclude warming has stopped. Detecting that CO2 concentration has peaked is far easier and a drop in CO2 concentration of 3 ppm is consistent with a greater than 99% chance that CO2 has peaked in all scenarios examined. Thus it is likely that as the rate of CO2 emissions is reduced, and net-zero emissions is approached, interpreting the global temperature record will become difficult—with a high potential to create confusion amongst policy makers and the general public.

Temporal-Spatial Variations Analysis of Surface Temperature in Kalimantan Region for The Period of 2010 - 2020

Surface temperature information is important to study because it affects other climate parameters and has an impact on various sectors. This study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of maximum surface temperature on Kalimantan Region during the period 2010 to 2020. The data used is Surface Maximum Temperature (SMT) in the form of a 0.5o x 0.5o grid from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA PCL. The results of the temporal analysis showed that the highest monthly SMT values occurred in May (32.00o C) and September (31.75o C). While the lowest monthly SMT values were found in January (30.88o C) and July (31.40o C). The results of the annual SMT trend analysis show that the surface temperature in the Kalimantan Region has increased at an average rate of 0.03°C per year. This value is higher than the increase in global surface temperature (~0.02°C per year). Based on the results of spatial analysis, it was known that the distribution of SMT on Kalimantan Region tends to be stable in the range of 25o C to 35o C throughout the year. Spatial analysis of SMT in 2011 showed that low values (25o - 31o C) dominated South Kalimantan Province , while high values (33°C - 35°C) dominated West Kalimantan Province. The results of the 2019 SMT spatial analysis revealed a similar pattern to 2011. However, there was a significant increase in temperature compared to 2011, especially in the high SMT values observed in West Kalimantan and East Kalimantan Provinces.

Reactive transport model for calcite-rich caprocks in the context of ge-ological carbon storage

Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are known to be the primary cause of the increase in global surface temperature and, consequently, climate change [6]. In order to limit global warming, several decarbonisation strategies have been proposed: among them, geological CO2 storage represents very likely the only short- to medium-term option for substantially improving CO2 sinks and reducing net carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
 To achieve secure and lasting storage of CO2 in underground spaces, it is necessary to have both a reservoir and a low-permeability caprock (seal), that maintains its integrity. Deep saline aquifers, depleted oil and gas fields and unminable coal seams are thus the primary targets for the underground storage of supercritical CO2 [2]. The occurrence of natural reservoirs implies that certain lithotypes have a certain sealing capacity, which can prevent leakage of gas to the atmosphere over long geological time periods (i.e. million of years); however, in order to assess the risk of CO2 leakage through caprock above storage sites, the potential caprock alterations due to the contact with CO2 must be considered. In fact, although certain caprocks can be suitable for hydrocarbons, CO2 in contact with the seal may pose additional risks. As for natural hydrocarbon accumulation, shales and evaporites are potential seals also for carbon storage. With particular reference to shales, their mechanical and transport properties are controlled by the behaviour of clay minerals. The sealing efficiency of intact shale caprocks is in fact dominated by the high specific surface clays, which are characterized by high capillary entry pressures, but are also susceptible to electro-chemical interaction. From the engineering perspective, capillary and electrical phenomena also have relevant effects at the Representative Elementary Volume scale, causing mechanical couplings which could affect porosity, clay fabric, hydraulic conductivity, compressibility, and shear strength [3]. Besides these electro-chemical effects, CO2 dissolution and diffusion in water also result in acidification of the in situ brine, causing chemical reactions with some caprock minerals and potentially affecting the mechanical and transport properties [4].
 This work presents a reactive transport model to assess the effects of pore water acidification on caprock materials. The model includes the water mass balance equation for the saturated porous medium and the mass balance equation for all the primary species dissolved in water, according to the theoretical approach presented in [7]. The modelling approach proposed accounts for both the aqueous (homogeneous) reactions of the CO2 dissolved in water (assumed to be in equilibrium) and the dissolution kinetics of calcite in the acidic environment induced by CO2 injection (see [1] for details). Calcite dissolution is finally linked to porosity changes via the reactive surface area of the mineral and the reaction rate. Chemo-hydraulic coupling is addressed by considering porosity changes in the storage term of the balance equations and by introducing a suitable link between hydraulic conductivity and current porosity. The model requires the solution of an initial chemical speciation problem, which has been performed with the software PHREEQ-C, and then the integration of a set of partial differential equations (the mass balance equations of water and of the master primary species dissolved in water) and non-linear algebraic equations (to obtain the concentration of all the chemical species involved), which in this study has been performed via the Finite Element software Comsol Multiphysics ®, according to the approach presented in [8].
 The numerical model has been validated according to the numerical benchmark proposed in [5], developed to reproduce a geo-chemical scenario where mineral dissolution causes permanent alterations in the transport properties of a porous medium. In partic-ular, the benchmark reproduces a flow-through columns experiment, with the porosity and permeability of a calcite-rich interlayer changing under sulfuric acid attack. Figure 1 shows a comparison between the predictions of the current model and the model proposed in [5] in terms of the spatial evolution of porosity, permeability and dissolved calcite, after 400 hours since the injection of sulfuric acid. The model is able to reproduce that, as the acidic front proceeds into the sample from left to right, calcite is progressively dissolved causing porosity changes and the consequent permeability increase. The agreement between the two models is satisfactory, despite some slight differences that may be attributed to the different numerical mesh and the different numerical solver scheme.

Example of thermal retrofitting for the Piedicastello tunnel

Over the last decades, global warming has become one of the major issues to cope with: as it stands, human activities are responsible for a global surface temperature increase of approximately 1.1°C since the pre-industrial age. Climate change is directly linked to the level of global warming, thus affecting different kind of regions around the world in multiple ways, leading not only to increments of heat extremes, but also to changes in rainfall patterns, sea level rise, amplification of the permafrost thawing, ocean acidification and much more [1].
 In this context, carbon dioxide emissions due to heating systems are one of the main enemies in the pathway for reaching the 1.5°C Paris climate goal and energy geostructures could play a relevant role. Among them, the thermal activation of tunnels has raised interest [2, 3, 4] and recent full scale projects have demonstrated the feasibility of such technology [5, 6]. However, so far applications have been related to new tunneling projects, whereas possibilities of implementation in the existing heritage of tunnels have not yet been investigated.
 The Authors are developing investigations for the thermal retrofitting feasibility of existing tunnels. In this abstract the attention is posed on the case study of the Piedicastello tunnel, located in the city of Trento, crossing the city centre through a 100 m high spur of limestone, called Doss Trento. This tunnel used to be part of the Italian roadway network but, following the construction of a new tunnel in 2007, it fell into disuse, being partly transformed into a museum one year later, i.e. the tunnel is now a closed environment.
 One of the design hypotheses identified for thermal retrofitting of the Piedicastello tunnel consists in taking advantage of its 100 m overburden by drilling radial borehole heat exchangers (rBHEs), arranged along several tunnel cross sections. In Figure 1a, a 3D view of the rBHEs solution is shown. This solution leaves the lining intrados visible for future inspection and is essentially unaffected by the internal aerothermal condition of the tunnel.
 In order to assess its thermal performance, some 3D numerical models were built with the Finite Element software Feflow [7]. The above-mentioned models are 200.0 m high and wide, with a thickness that varies as a function of the rBHEs cross section interaxis distance (Figure 1-b). The two horse-shoe shaped tubes of the Piedicastello tunnel have an external equivalent diameter of 12.7 m, with an 80 ÷ 130 cm thick concrete lining. Heat exchanger pipes, instead, were modelled through one-dimensional elements (“discrete features”), with a cross section of 201 mm2, corresponding to an external diameter of 20 mm and a thickness of 2 mm.
 Both thermal and hydraulic boundary conditions were set considering the lack of information about the groundwater regime of the Doss Trento and the internal aerothermal conditions of the Piedicastello tunnel. Nonetheless, given its unusual conditions (absence of moving vehicles and closed environment), the latter would likely have a minor role in the heat exchange process. Accordingly, setting adiabatic boundary conditions at the tunnel contour and considering a dry rock mass, a preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed with the aim of drawing some meaningful conclusions about two key design aspects of the rBHEs solution. To this purpose, three different borehole length setups (short – 12.50 m, mid – 18.75 m and long – 25.00 m) and three cross section interaxis distances (3.0 m, 5.0 m and 7.5 m) were investigated. The results of the preliminary numerical simulations are shown in Table 1.
 From the sensitivity analysis, it seems evident that, in the considered cases and ranges: (i) as expected, the longer the rBHEs, the higher the heat that the system can exploit, accordingly the rBHEs optimal length should be designed considering also the pumping and drilling costs, (ii) two consecutive instrumented cross sections have virtually no interaction if the interaxis distance is set higher than 5.0 m.
 Starting from these valuable evidences, future research will investigate: (i) the influence of the groundwater regime, as well as the internal aerothermal conditions of the tunnel, (ii) new alternatives for the thermal retrofitting of existing tunnels and (iii) the optimal rBHEs length with respect to a cost-benefit analysis that will consider both drilling and pumping costs.

Effect of risk perception and vulnerability on adaptive architecture in flood resilience: a case from Ratnapura, Sri Lanka

In the last few decades, the frequency and severity of floods in South Asia have vastly increased due to the increase in global surface temperature and change in rainfall patterns. The lack of risk perception, high vulnerability and lack of proper architectural adaptations have added to the negative consequences of disasters. This study discusses the effect of risk perception and vulnerability on flood resilient architecture. The research was conducted with 35 participants selected from the Mudduwa area in Rathnapura, Sri Lanka where the annual flood frequency and damage is very high. The collected data was analyzed using statistical software to calculate a composite mean score to each theoretical factor risk perception, vulnerability, and architectural adaptation. With assumptions, a non-parametric correlation test was carried out to identify the relationship between the three theoretical factors and their subsequent variables. The research findings concluded that risk perception has a positive correlation with architectural adaptation, but vulnerability demonstrates a negative correlation. According to the study, vulnerability acts as a resistance to the correlation between risk perception and architectural adaptation. In conclusion this study elaborates on the importance of a proper system of adaptation for vulnerable people living in flood prone areas.

An alternative approach to capture uncertainties embedded in the estimation of social cost of carbon

AbstractThe continuous increase in global surface temperature, which has been triggered by the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration from anthropogenic activity, results in damage not only in the short term but also in the long term. This damage, called the social cost of carbon (SCC), has been widely estimated using integrated assessment models (IAMs). A large range of estimated SCC values have been observed because of uncertainties in IAMs' parameters. This study provides a comprehensive review of these uncertainties after dividing IAM modules into four categories: climate sensitivity, damage function, discount rate, and regional–sectoral validation. The review was conducted by comparing key ideas considered by various IAMs: socioeconomic conditions in relation to projected CO2 emissions, estimation of the atmospheric concentration of CO2, estimation of total radiative forcing, parameters of the temperature function, parameters of the damage function, and discount rate value. In addition, this study presents an alternative approach to capture the uncertainties embedded in the SCC estimation, using a machine learning approach. This enables a probabilistic evaluation of a specific level of SCC and improves our comprehension of the implication of the calculated SCC using IAMs. This alternative approach provides a basis for further study of SCC.This article is categorized under: Climate and Environment > Net Zero Planning and Decarbonization

Tropical surface urban heat islands in east Africa

The horn of Africa is susceptible to droughts because of the persistent heat waves and insufficient precipitation. The growth of urban population and built-up urban environments exacerbate the overheating problems due to the urban heat island effects. Understanding the impacts of anthropogenic activities in such dry environments is important to control or mitigate extreme heat leading to droughts. This is required to preserve soil moisture, pothole waters, lakes and rivers that are required for pasture and drinking water. Nonetheless, the intensity and duration of the urban heat island effects have not been investigated in this region resulting in the underestimation of the intensity and severity of the extreme heat events. This study therefore performs the quantitative analyses of the intensity, duration and causality of the tropical surface urban heat islands (TSUHIs) for the first time using earth observation information at a regional to local scale. It also identifies the factors that control TSUHIs, considering background climate, population, vegetation and the impervious urban fractions. Results showed that the TSUHI in the capital cities of tropical east Africa varies from 1 ^{circ }C in Dodoma to 4 ^{circ }C in Kampala and reaches up to 8 ^{circ }C in Khartoum. The mean temperature contribution to regional climate from 2000 to 2020 is 0.64 ^{circ }C during the day and 0.34 ^{circ }C during the night, a mean total of around 0.5 ^{circ }C, a 0.25 ^{circ }C increase per decade. This is a quarter of the increase in global surface temperature, which is approx 1.09 ^{circ }C from 2011 to 2020 compared to the 1850–1900 level. Most of these capital cities in this region exhibited high TSUHIs from late summer to winter and are dependent on mainly population, vegetation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in different proportions. This urban induced additional temperature has been intensifying droughts in tropical east Africa. Therefore, urban planners are advised to consider the impacts of TSUHIs to reduce the severity of droughts in the tropical east Africa region.

Moving toward Net Zero Carbon Buildings to Face Global Warming: A Narrative Review

The increase in global surface temperatures will surpass the 2 °C target set by the Paris Agreement unless carbon emissions are lowered to zero by 2050. To date, the building sector is responsible for 38% of all carbon emissions, thus one of the main targets is represented by the development of building strategies that can facilitate the transition toward carbon-neutral buildings. The main strategies are today represented by nearly zero energy buildings (nZEBs), zero energy buildings (ZEBs)/net zero energy buildings (NZEBs) and net zero carbon buildings (NZCBs). Particularly, NZCBs completely target zero operational and embodied carbon during their life cycles, fulfilling the leadership role in the decarbonization of the construction sector. Moreover, adopting the European Standard EN 15978:2011, carbon emissions can be precisely classified to enhance strategies aimed at reducing them. Commercial viability remains a fundamental economic driver, but the higher initial capital costs hinder the NZCBs. In addition, legislative, socio-cultural, technological, professional and geographical barriers hold back its diffusion. NZCBs can be met by a four-steps program: embodied carbon reduction, operational carbon reduction, increase in renewable energy supply and offset and carbon storage. Circular economy principles are strictly connected to design for disassembly and for adaptability to reduce embodied carbon, while passive design and solar and geothermal energy production can satisfy the renewable energy demand of the building. The aim of this narrative review is to determine and describe which is the current state of the art for NZCB definition, the drivers and barriers toward its application in a broader context and which strategies are eligible to meet the ambitious goal of zero operational and zero embodied carbon emissions.

Establishment of HFC-134a Emission Inventory in the North China Plain from 1995 to 2020

1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a) is a potent greenhouse gas that can be degraded to produce trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), a degradation product that has an impact on aquatic ecology, so its emission has been a continuous concern worldwide. Existing studies mainly estimate the global- or national-scale emissions of HFC-134a, and there are relatively few studies on regional emissions, all of which used the top-down method. By establishing a regional-scale bottom-up emission inventory and comparing it with the regional-scale top-down estimation results, regional emissions can be verified and their emission characteristics and environmental impacts can be analysed. HFC-134 emissions were estimated for the first time in the North China Plain using the emission factor method, and spatiotemporal characteristics and environmental impacts were analysed for the period of 1995 to 2020. The results showed that the cumulative HFC-134a emissions were 88 (73–103) kt (126 Mt CO2-eq), which have led to an increase in global radiative forcing of 1.1 × 10−3 (0.9 × 10−3–1.3 × 10−3) W m−2, an increase in global surface temperature of 8.9 × 10−4 °C, and a cumulative TFA production of 7.5 (6.2–8.9) kt as of 2020. The major sources of HFC-134a emissions are the refrigeration and air conditioning sector, which involves the automotive air conditioning (MAC), industrial and commercial refrigeration, and air conditioning (ICR) sub-sectors. China joined the Kigali Amendment in 2021 to phase down HFCs and proposed the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. The North China Plain is a region undergoing rapid economic development, with a relatively high proportion of GDP (29%) and car ownership (23%) in 2020. Additionally, HFC-134a emissions accounted for about 20% of the total emissions in China. Therefore, HFC-134a emissions and their environmental impact on the North China Plain should not be ignored.

Scientists' warning on climate change and insects

AbstractClimate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human‐mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as well as in the preservation of an array of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among the most affected groups of animals are insects—central components of many ecosystems—for which climate change has pervasive effects from individuals to communities. In this contribution to the scientists' warning series, we summarize the effect of the gradual global surface temperature increase on insects, in terms of physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and species interactions, as well as the effect of increased frequency and duration of extreme events such as hot and cold spells, fires, droughts, and floods on these parameters. We warn that, if no action is taken to better understand and reduce the action of climate change on insects, we will drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems. We discuss perspectives on relevant ways to conserve insects in the face of climate change, and we offer several key recommendations on management approaches that can be adopted, on policies that should be pursued, and on the involvement of the general public in the protection effort.

Identification of prominent airborne pollen in a city situated in foot-hills of Himalayas, Chandigarh, India.

Pollen allergy is considered one of the important critical thrust areas, as 20-30% of the world population suffers from allergic rhinitis. The increase in global surface temperature directly affects pollen physiological (e.g., pollen production) and morphological parameters and indirectly affects the distribution pattern, the allergenic potential of pollen, and plant species. Therefore, periodic sampling and pollen studies of a region have become necessary to assess the status of change in species and its morphological characteristics of different taxa. The current study is conducted to identify the airborne pollen based on studying their unique and distinctive morphological characters to serve as a reference pollen guide for future research. The airborne pollens were trapped using the Burkard volumetric sampler at three different locations in Chandigarh from 2018 to 2020 and analyzed under Leica DM5500B-Automated Upright Microscope System. The study investigated various pollen features such as shape, size, aperture type, and exine/surface pattern for taxonomic classification of plant groups. The majority of LM-analyzed pollen grains were prolate-spheroidal or oblate, whereas the aperture types were 3-zonocolporate, 3-colpate, and 3-zonocolporate. Exine patterns were predominantly psilate, reticulate, and straite and were easily discernible. Nonetheless, the vast majority of airborne pollen belonging to both arboreal and non-arboreal was quite small and fall into small pollen size classes, i.e., 10-24μm. The exine pattern was readily apparent and were predominantly psilate, reticulate, and straight. The current study improved the knowledge on airborne pollen biodiversity, which will help to understand the regional distribution, long-range transport, and construct the current status of morphological features of species/taxa.

Photocatalytic CO2 Conversion Using Metal-Containing Coordination Polymers and Networks: Recent Developments in Material Design and Mechanistic Details.

International guidelines have progressively addressed global warming which is caused by the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect originates from the atmosphere’s gases which trap sunlight which, as a consequence, causes an increase in global surface temperature. Carbon dioxide is one of these greenhouse gases and is mainly produced by anthropogenic emissions. The urgency of removing atmospheric carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to reduce the greenhouse effect has initiated the development of methods to covert carbon dioxide into valuable products. One approach that was developed is the photocatalytic transformation of CO2. Photocatalysis addresses environmental issues by transferring CO2 into value added chemicals by mimicking the natural photosynthesis process. During this process, the photocatalytic system is excited by light energy. CO2 is adsorbed at the catalytic metal centers where it is subsequently reduced. To overcome several obstacles for achieving an efficient photocatalytic reduction process, the use of metal-containing polymers as photocatalysts for carbon dioxide reduction is highlighted in this review. The attention of this manuscript is directed towards recent advances in material design and mechanistic details of the process using different polymeric materials and photocatalysts.

Global Changes in Water Vapor 1979–2020

AbstractGlobal‐scale changes in water vapor and responses to surface temperature variability since 1979 are evaluated across a range of satellite and ground‐based observations, a reanalysis (ERA5) and coupled and atmosphere‐only CMIP6 climate model simulations. Global‐mean column integrated water vapor increased by 1%/decade during 1988–2014 in observations and atmosphere‐only simulations. However, coupled simulations overestimate water vapor trends and this is partly explained by past studies showing that internal climate variability suppressed observed warming in this period. Decreases in low‐altitude tropical water vapor in ERA5 and ground‐based observations before around 1993 are considered suspect based on inconsistency with simulations and increased column integrated water vapor in microwave satellite data since 1979. Atmospheric Infra‐red Sounder satellite data does not capture the increased tropospheric water vapor since 2002 shown by other satellite, reanalysis, and model products. However, global water vapor responses to interannual surface temperature variability are consistent across data sets with increases of ∼4%–5% near the surface and 10%–15% at 300 hPa for each 1°C increase in global surface temperature. Global water vapor responses are explained by thermodynamic amplification of upper tropospheric temperature changes and the Clausius Clapeyron temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure that are dominated by the tropical ocean responses. Upper tropospheric moistening is larger in climate model simulations with greater upper tropospheric warming.

WATER LITERACY LEVELS OF HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS IN SCIENCE AND ART CENTERS (ISTANBUL EXAMPLE)

Global climate change or global warming has become a current issue that everyone is talking about in recent years. In the Paris Agreement in 2015, projections were shared that there has been an increase of 1°C in global surface temperatures in the last century and that these figures will reach 2°C before the 2050s if measures are not taken. The increase in global surface temperatures, the decrease in precipitation amounts and the visible shifts in the precipitation regime have started to cause serious water problems. Problems such as water shortage, lack of clean and sufficient water and water scarcity, which have been identified with some African countries in the past years, will perhaps be referred to as problems for some regions in Turkey in the coming years. It is clear that the problems of water scarcity and access to clean water will increase in the future. For this reason, individuals and societies with high water literacy levels are needed for the sustainable use of water resources and their delivery to future generations. If a society with a high water literacy level cannot be built, water shortages due to increasing temperatures and problems due to water deprivation seem to be very close. The aim of this study is to determine the water literacy levels of high school students studying at Science and Art Centers (BİLSEM) in Istanbul. The study was conducted with 129 high school students enrolled in BİLSEMs in Istanbul, using the Water Literacy Scale developed by Sözcü and Türker (2020). The reliability coefficient of the water literacy scale used in the study was calculated as .879. The scale consists of three sub-dimensions and 30 items. As a result of the research, it was determined that female students' water saving and water awareness levels were higher than males. No statistically significant difference was found between grade level and academic grade point averages and water literacy levels. It was determined that there was a difference in the water saving sub-dimension according to the mother's education level variable. Based on these results, the necessity of conducting a strong educational process starting from the family is emphasized in order to build a water literate society.

Non-uniform changes in different daily precipitation events in the contiguous United States

This study examines changes in characteristics (amount, frequency, intensity) of daily precipitation in the contiguous United States (CONUS) using high-quality records for a long-term period (1900–2018) and a more recent period (1950–2018) at different temporal (annual and seasonal scales) and different spatial scales (national and sub-regional scales). Results show that the patterns of change during the two periods are very similar. First, on the annual basis, we find an overall increase in the total annual precipitation, frequency of wet days, and intensity of precipitation in both periods in the CONUS, with percentages of stations showing significant increasing trends significantly larger than what can be expected by chance. Second, stations with significant increasing trends are mainly concentrated in eastern CONUS, while stations with decreasing trends are located on the west coast and partial southeast coast. Specifically, the amounts and frequencies of light, moderate, and heavy precipitation mostly have significantly increased at more than 10% of stations. In both periods, there is a non-uniform change for three intensity categories of precipitation, with the frequency and total amount of events with higher intensity showing a larger rate of change, resulting in the smaller contribution of light precipitation to annual total precipitation but larger contribution due to heavy precipitation. Such non-uniform changes can also be observed in most sub-regions and seasons. Moreover, the estimated sensitivities of the amount of light, moderate, heavy precipitation, and heaviest precipitation event to global surface temperature increase for the 1900–2018 period is comparable with that for the 1950–2018 period, indicating that sampling period does not have a substantial effect on the scaling relationship between the amount of different precipitation events and global mean temperature.

Achieving Net Zero Emissions in Italy by 2050: Challenges and Opportunities

This paper contributes to the climate policy discussion by focusing on the challenges and opportunities of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in Italy. To support Italian energy planning, we developed energy roadmaps towards national climate neutrality, consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives and the IPCC goal of limiting the increase in global surface temperature to 1.5 °C. Starting from the Italian framework, these scenarios identify the correlations among the main pillars for the change of the energy paradigm towards net emissions by 2050. The energy scenarios were developed using TIMES-RSE, a partial equilibrium and technology-rich optimization model of the entire Italian energy system. Subsequently, an in-depth analysis was developed with the sMTISIM, a long-term simulator of power system and electricity markets. The results show that, to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the Italian energy system will have to experience profound transformations on multiple and strongly related dimensions. A predominantly renewable-based energy mix (at least 80–90% by 2050) is essential to decarbonize most of the final energy consumption. However, the strong increase of non-programmable renewable sources requires particular attention to new flexibility resources needed for the power system, such as Power-to-X. The green fuels produced from renewables via Power-to-X will be a vital energy source for those sectors where electrification faces technical and economic barriers. The paper’s findings also confirm that the European “energy efficiency first” principle represents the very first step on the road to climate neutrality.

Ambient temperature structures the gut microbiota of zebrafish to impact the response to radioactive pollution

Potential nuclear accidents propel serious environmental pollution, and the resultant radionuclide release devastates severely the environment severely and threatens aquatic organism survival. Likewise, ongoing climate change coupled with the gradual increase in global surface temperatures can also adversely impact the aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, we preconditioned zebrafish (Danio rerio) at three different temperatures (18 °C, 26 °C and 34 °C) to investigate the effects of a temperature profile on their radiosensitivity (exposure to 20 Gy of gamma rays) to identify the potential biochemical mechanism responsible for influencing radiosensitivity. We found that preconditioning of zebrafish at different temperatures moulded specific gut microbiota configurations and impacted hepatic glycometabolism and sensitivity to subsequent radiation. Following antibiotic treatment to reduce gut bacteria, these observed differences in the expression of hepatic glycometabolism-related genes and radiation-induced intestinal toxicity were minimal, supporting the hypothesis that the gut bacteria reshaped by different ambient temperatures might be the key modulators of hepatic functions and radiosensitivity in zebrafish. Together, our findings provide novel insights into the connection of radiation injuries with temperature alterations in fish, and suggest that maintaining the stability of gram-positive bacteria may be efficacious to protect aquatic organisms against short or long-term radioactive contamination in the context of global climate change.

Monitoring Greenhouse Gases from Space

The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations of CO2 and CH4, due to human activities, is the main driver of the observed increase in surface temperature by more than 1 °C since the pre-industrial era. At the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Paris, most nations agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the increase in global surface temperature to 1.5 °C. Satellite remote sensing of CO2 and CH4 is now well established thanks to missions such as NASA’s OCO-2 and the Japanese GOSAT missions, which have allowed us to build a long-term record of atmospheric GHG concentrations from space. They also give us a first glimpse into CO2 and CH4 enhancements related to anthropogenic emission, which helps to pave the way towards the future missions aimed at a Monitoring & Verification Support (MVS) capacity for the global stock take of the Paris agreement. China plays an important role for the global carbon budget as the largest source of anthropogenic carbon emissions but also as a region of increased carbon sequestration as a result of several reforestation projects. Over the last 10 years, a series of projects on mitigation of carbon emission has been started in China, including the development of the first Chinese greenhouse gas monitoring satellite mission, TanSat, which was successfully launched on 22 December 2016. Here, we summarise the results of a collaborative project between European and Chinese teams under the framework of the Dragon-4 programme of ESA and the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) to characterize and evaluate the datasets from the TanSat mission by retrieval intercomparisons and ground-based validation and to apply model comparisons and surface flux inversion methods to TanSat and other CO2 missions, with a focus on China.

The analysis of the relationship between CO2 level and economic growth

2019 was Earth's second warmest year since 1850. In 2019 the global mean temperature was cooler than in 2016, but warmer than any other year explicitly measured. Consequently, 2016 is still the warmest year in historical observation history. Year-to-year rankings are likely to reflect natural fluctuations in the short term, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term global warming trend. This would be predicted from global warming caused by greenhouse gases, temperature increase across the globe is broadly spread, impacting almost all areas of land and oceans. Climate change" and "global warming" are often used interchangeably but are of distinct significance. Global warming is the long-term heating of the Earth's climate system observed since the pre-industrial period as a result of human activities, mainly the combustion of fossil fuel, which raises the heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in the Earth's air. The term is often used interchangeably with the term climate change, as the latter applies to warming caused both humanly and naturally, and the impact it has on our planet. This is most generally calculated as the average increase in global surface temperature on Earth. Carbon dioxide emission is one of the main reasons for global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, human sources of carbon dioxide emissions have been growing. Human activities such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, as well as deforestation are the primary cause of the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. In our research, let’s examine the relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the GDP/capita in developed and developing countries.

The analysis of the relationship between CO2 level and economic growth

2019 was Earth's second warmest year since 1850. In 2019 the global mean temperature was cooler than in 2016, but warmer than any other year explicitly measured. Consequently, 2016 is still the warmest year in historical observation history. Year-to-year rankings are likely to reflect natural fluctuations in the short term, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term global warming trend. This would be predicted from global warming, caused by greenhouse gases, temperature increase across the globe is broadly spread, impacting almost all areas of land and oceans. “Climate change" and "global warming" are often used interchangeably, but are of distinct significance. Global warming is the long-term heating of the Earth's climate system, observed since the pre-industrial period as a result of human activities, mainly the combustion of fossil fuel, which raises the heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in the Earth's air. The term is often used interchangeably with the term climate change, as the latter applies to warming, caused both humanly and naturally, and the impact it has on our planet. This is most generally calculated as the average increase in global surface temperature on Earth. In our research, we examine the relationship between the regulation of carbon emissions and the GDP / capita relationship between developed and developing countries. We assumed applying carbon abatement policies will reduce economic growth and GDP in developed countries, but it will rise economic growth and GDP in developing countries.