Increase In Daily Temperature Research Articles

Higher ambient temperatures may worsen obstructive sleep apnea: A nationwide smartwatch-based analysis of 6.2 million person-days

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a serious type of sleep disorder that can lead to cardiometabolic and neurocognitive diseases. We utilized smart device-based photoplethysmography technology to collect sleep data from the Chinese population from 2019 to 2022. Distributed lag nonlinear models combined with a generalized nonlinear model or a linear mixed effects model were used to investigate the short-term associations between daily temperature and indicators of OSA severity. We included a total of 6,232,056 d of sleep monitoring data from 51,842 participants with moderate to severe risk of OSA from 313 Chinese cities. The relationships between ambient temperature and OSA exacerbation, apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), and minimum oxygen saturation (MinSpO2) were almost linear and present only on the same day. Higher temperatures were associated with a greater risk of OSA exacerbation, with an 8.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.6%–9.3%) increase per 10 °C increase in temperature. A 10 °C increase in daily temperature corresponded to an AHI increase of 0.70 events/h (95% CI: 0.65–0.76) and a MinSpO2 decrease of 0.18% (95% CI: 0.16%–0.19%). Exposure to elevated temperatures during the night can also lead to adverse effects. The effects of higher temperatures on OSA severity were stronger among men, participants with a body mass index ≥ 24 kg/m2, those aged 45 years and older, individuals with a history of hypertension and diabetes, and during the cold season. This large-scale, nationwide, longitudinal study provides robust evidence suggesting that higher ambient temperatures may immediately worsen OSA.

Environmental impact on critical responses of lightweight cellular concrete subbase flexible pavements

Previous analytical studies have demonstrated that low-density lightweight cellular concrete (LCC) subbase pavements can support up to 20 times more traffic loads than unbound granular subbase pavements while protecting the pavement subgrade from adverse freeze–thaw effects in cold regions. This study examines the possibility of providing better-performing pavements on the field through the construction, instrumentation, and monitoring of flexible pavement sections incorporating three LCC densities (400, 475, and 600 kg/m³) as subbase material compared with unbound granular material in Canada. The effects of daily and seasonal temperatures on pavement critical responses to stress and strains were evaluated. The findings showed that these LCC pavements reduced asphalt concrete tensile strain by over two times compared with unbound granular pavements, and that strain increased with a daily temperature increase. Daily subgrade pressure (stress) change was reduced by up to 68%. The study concluded that longer life pavements could be achieved with LCC subbase thicknesses ≥250 mm.

Heat stress tolerance in peas (Pisum sativum L.): Current status and way forward.

In the era of climate change, the overall productivity of pea (Pisum sativum L.) is being threatened by several abiotic stresses including heat stress (HS). HS causes severe yield losses by adversely affecting several traits in peas. A reduction in pod yield has been reported from 11.1% to 17.5% when mean daily temperature increase from 1.4 to 2.2°C. High-temperature stress (30.5-33°C) especially during reproductive phase is known to drastically reduce both seed yield and germination. HS during germination and early vegetative stage resulted in poor emergence and stunted plant growth along with detrimental effects on physiological functions of the pea plant. To combat HS and continue its life cycle, plants use various defense strategies including heat escape, avoidance or tolerance mechanisms. Ironically, the threshold temperatures for pea plant and its responses are inconsistent and not yet clearly identified. Trait discovery through traditional breeding such as semi leaflessness (afila), upright growing habit, lodging tolerance, lower canopy temperature and small seeded nature has highlighted their utility for greater adaptation under HS in pea. Screening of crop gene pool and landraces for HS tolerance in a targeted environment is a simple approach to identify HS tolerant genotypes. Thus, precise phenotyping using modern phenomics tools could lead to increased breeding efficiency. The NGS (next generation sequencing) data can be associated to find the candidate genes responsible for the HS tolerance in pea. In addition, genomic selection, genome wide association studies (GWAS) and marker assisted selection (MAS) can be used for the development of HS tolerant pea genotypes. Additionally, development of transgenics could be an alternative strategy for the development of HS tolerant pea genotypes. This review comprehensively covers the various aspects of HS tolerance mechanisms in the pea plant, screening protocols, omic advances, and future challenges for the development of HS tolerant genotypes.

Cumulative effects of temperature on blood pressure during pregnancy: A cohort study of differing effects in three trimesters

BackgroundLittle is known about the non-linear cumulative effects of temperature on blood pressure (BP) during pregnancy. We investigated the differing effects of daily ambient temperature on BP for up to 30 days in three trimesters. MethodsThe first, second, and third trimester analyses included 2547, 2299, and 2011 pregnant women, respectively, from a prospective cohort in Nanjing from January 2017 to January 2020. BP was measured at each follow-up visit. The individual daily temperature exposures were calculated for 30 days prior to the follow-up date. The Distributed Lag Non-linear Model was used to investigate the relationship between temperature and BP in each trimester. ResultsTemperatures under 15 °C elevate systolic, diastolic BP, and mean arterial pressure (SBP, DBP, and MAP) in the first trimester, while temperatures above 15 °C reduce SBP in the second and third trimesters. By using Distributed Lag Linear Models, we estimated that with a 1 °C decrease in daily temperature, the SBP and DBP increased by 0.32 (95 % CI: 0.12, 0.52) and 0.23 (95 % CI: 0.07, 0.39) mmHg, respectively, in the first trimester with a 20-day cumulative lag, while with a 1 °C increase in daily temperature, the SBP decreased by 0.23 (0.35, 0.10) mmHg in the third trimester with a 30-day cumulative lag. The significant effects of temperature mainly manifested between 2 and 4 weeks of exposure. ConclusionsTemperature has different effects on BP over three trimesters. Protective measures to reduce cold-related BP rise will help reduce the risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy.

The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013-2019).

The effects of temperature on behavior change and mental health have previously been explored, but the association between temperature and crime is less well understood, especially in developing countries. Single-city-level data were used to evaluate the association between the short-term effects of temperature on crime events in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. We used quasi-Poisson regression models to investigate the linear effects and distributed lag non-linear models to investigate the non-linear association between daily temperature and daily crime events from 2013 to 2019. There were 3884 crime events, including 1083 violent crimes and 2801 non-violent crimes during the 7-year study period. For both linear and non-linear effects, there were positive associations between an increase in daily temperature and crime, and the greatest effects were observed on the first day of exposure (lag 0). For linear effects, we estimated that each 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.9% (95%CI: 0.2; 20.5), 6.8% (95%CI: 0.6; 13.5), and 7.5% (95%CI: 2.3; 13.2) increase in the risk of violent, non-violent, and total crime, respectively. For non-linear effects, however, the crime risk plateaued at 30 °C and decreased at higher exposures, which presented an inverted U-shape response with a large statistical uncertainty.

Ambient temperature and risk of urinary tract infection in California: A time-stratified case-crossover study using electronic health records.

Background:In the United States (US), urinary tract infections (UTI) lead to more than 10 million office visits each year. Temperature and season are potentially important risk factors for UTI, particularly in the context of climate change.Methods:We examined the relationship between ambient temperature and outpatient UTI diagnoses among patients followed from 2015 to 2017 in two California healthcare systems: Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) and Sutter Health in Northern California. We identified UTI diagnoses in adult patients using diagnostic codes and laboratory records from electronic health records. We abstracted patient age, sex, season of diagnosis, and linked community-level Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE-I, a measure of wealth and poverty concentration) based on residential address. Daily county-level average ambient temperature was assembled from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). We implemented distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to assess the association between UTI and lagged daily temperatures. Main analyses were confined to women. In secondary analyses, we stratified by season, healthcare system, and community-level ICE-I.Results:We observed 787,186 UTI cases (89% among women). We observed a threshold association between ambient temperature and UTI among women: an increase in daily temperature from the 5th percentile (6.0 °C) to the mean (16.2 °C) was associated with a 3.2% (95% CI: 2.4, 3.9%) increase in same-day UTI diagnosis rate, whereas an increase from the mean to 95th percentile was associated with no change in UTI risk (0.0%, 95% CI: −0.7, 0.6%). In secondary analyses, we observed the clearest monotonic increase in the rate of UTI diagnosis with higher temperatures in the fall. Associations did not differ meaningfully by healthcare system or community-level ICE-I. Results were robust to alternate model specifications.Discussion:Increasing temperature was related to higher rate of outpatient UTI, particularly in the shoulder seasons (spring, autumn).

Defaunation and changes in climate and fire frequency have synergistic effects on aboveground biomass loss in the brazilian savanna

As a result of anthropogenic pressure, three drives are expected to affect Brazilian savannas: an increase in the dry season, more frequent fire events, and defaunation. These drivers are a trigger for biodiversity loss and undermine the ecosystems services like carbon storage. Here our goal was to analyze how these drivers can affect the structure and dynamics of the savanna's tree species and how they impact the savanna's total estimating aboveground biomass (AGB). We analysed eight sites that comprise a physiognomic gradient from open savanna to savanna woodland. The species were classified by three traits: phenological strategies (deciduous or evergreen), fire resistance (resprouting or non-resprouting), and dispersal syndrome (animal or non-animal). Then, we modelled AGB loss in a dry season in the austral winter, a 2 °C increase in daily temperature, five fire events by decadal-series, and a defaunation scenario. Although climate change, change in fire frequency, and defaunation effects impact AGB separately, they also have a synergistic effect. This effect was observed in functional strategies and also in the total AGB of the community. In some cases, the total AGB loss exceeded 70%. The negative effects on performance were highest in species which were decidual, non-resprouting, and which employed animal dispersal for their seed. If different types of disturbances are not controlled in the near future, savanna communities will be dominated by evergreen, resprouters, and non-animal dispersed species, representing a steeply decline in the diversity of species and ecosystem functions.

Hot under the collar: A 14-year association between temperature and violent behavior across 436 U.S. counties

ObjectivesViolent behavior is influenced by individual and societal characteristics, but the role of environmental factors is less understood. Our aims were to use national-level data to identify the association between criminal behavior and short-term temperature conditions, including the departure of daily temperatures from normal conditions. MethodsWe conducted a multi-stage hierarchical time-series model across 436 U.S. counties and 14-years representing 100.4 million people to investigate the association between daily mean temperature and daily mean temperatures departing from normal conditions with violent and non-violent crime counts. First-stage comparisons were made within counties to control for population and geographic heterogeneities, while a second stage combined estimates. We evaluated differences in risk based on county sociodemographic characteristics and estimated non-linear exposure-response relationships. ResultsWe observed a total of 9.0 million violent crimes and 20.9 million non-violent property crimes between 2000 through 2013. We estimated that each 10 °C increase in daily temperature or daily departure from long-term normal temperatures were associated with 11.92% (95% PI: 11.57, 12.27) and 10.37% (95% PI: 10.05, 10.69) increase in the risk of violent crime, respectively. Similar, but lower in magnitude trends, were observed for property crime risks. We found that crime risk plateaus and decreases at high daily temperatures, but for temperatures departing from normal, the association with crime increased linearly. Seasonal variations showed that anomalously warm temperatures days during cool months had the greatest risk. ConclusionsOur study revealed an association between higher temperatures and high departure from normal temperatures with both violent and non-violent crime risk, regardless of community-type. However, our findings on seasonal and daily trends suggest that daily mean temperature may impact crime by affecting routine activities and behavior, as opposed to a temperature-aggression relationship. These results may advance public response and planning to prevent violent behavior.

Impact of climate and ambient air pollution on the epidemic growth during COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread worldwide in the first quarter of 2020 and resulted in a global crisis. Investigation of the potential association of the spread of the COVID-19 infection with climate or ambient air pollution could lead to the development of preventive strategies for disease control. To examine this association, we conducted a longitudinal cohort study of 28 geographical areas of Japan with documented outbreaks of COVID-19. We analyzed data obtained from March 13 to April 6, 2020, before the Japanese government declared a state of emergency. The results revealed that the epidemic growth of COVID-19 was significantly associated with increase in daily temperature or sunshine hours. This suggests that an increase in person-to-person contact due to increased outing activities on a warm and/or sunny day might promote the transmission of COVID-19. Our results also suggested that short-term exposure to suspended particles might influence respiratory infections caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Further research by well-designed or well-controlled study models is required to ascertain this effect. Our findings suggest that weather has an indirect role in the transmission of COVID-19 and that daily adequate preventive behavior decreases the transmission.

Does social thermal regulation constrain individual thermal tolerance in an ant species?

In ants, social thermal regulation is the collective maintenance of a nest temperature that is optimal for individual colony members. In the thermophilic ant Aphaenogaster iberica, two key behaviours regulate nest temperature: seasonal nest relocation and variable nest depth. Outside the nest, foragers must adapt their activity to avoid temperatures that exceed their thermal limits. It has been suggested that social thermal regulation constrains physiological and morphological thermal adaptations at the individual level. We tested this hypothesis by examining the foraging rhythms of six populations of A. iberica, which were found at different elevations (from 100 to 2,000m) in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of southern Spain. We tested the thermal resistance of individuals from these populations under controlled conditions. Janzen's climatic variability hypothesis (CVH) states that greater climatic variability should select for organisms with broader temperature tolerances. We found that the A. iberica population at 1,300m experienced the most extreme temperatures and that ants from this population had the highest heat tolerance (LT50=57.55°C). These results support CVH's validity at microclimatic scales, such as the one represented by the elevational gradient in this study. Aphaenogaster iberica maintains colony food intake levels across different elevations and mean daily temperatures by shifting its rhythm of activity. This efficient colony-level thermal regulation and the significant differences in individual heat tolerance that we observed among the populations suggest that behaviourally controlled thermal regulation does not constrain individual physiological adaptations for coping with extreme temperatures.

The impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of urolithiasis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective This review aimed to confirm the association between ambient temperature and incidence of urolithiasis and evaluate the impact thereof. Methods A systematic literature review was performed up to September 2019 using multiple databases. The effect of temperature on urolithiasis risk was assessed using risk ratio (RR). Pearson correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) was used to evaluate the linear association between ambient temperature and urolithiasis incidence. The non-linear association between climatic temperature and the urolithiasis incidence was also evaluated. Results Twenty-four studies related to the temperature and urolithiasis risk in 14 different countries or regions of five continent involving over 2.5 million cases were included in the meta-analysis. High climatic or workplace temperature was a significant risk factor of urolithiasis. The weighted correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) of monthly temperature and urolithiasis risk was 0.49 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40-0.57], a moderate correlation (0.4<r<0.6). According to non-linear models, as the daily temperature increases by 5 °C, the risk of urolithiasis will increase by 10% (95% CI 8-11%). Conclusion Both workplace and climatic temperatures are related to the incidence of urolithiasis. Public health intervention strategies need to be developed to prevent those in high-risk districts or occupations from being exposed to high ambient temperature.

Spatial Variability in the Effect of High Ambient Temperature on Mortality: An Analysis at Municipality Level within the Greater Athens Area.

Spatial variability in temperature exists within metropolitan areas but very few studies have investigated intra-urban differentiation in the temperature-mortality effects. We investigated whether local characteristics of 42 Municipalities within the Greater Athens Area lead to modified temperature effects on mortality and if effect modifiers can be identified. Generalized Estimating Equations models were used to assess the effect of high ambient temperature on the total and cause-specific daily number of deaths and meta-regression to investigate effect modification. We found significant effects of daily temperature increases on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (e.g., for all ages 4.16% (95% CI: 3.73,4.60%) per 1 °C increase in daily temperature (lags 0–3). Heterogeneity in the effect estimates between Municipalities was observed in several outcomes and environmental and socio-economic effect modifying variables were identified, such as % area coverage of buildings, length of roads/km2, population density, % unemployed, % born outside the EU countries and mean daily temperature. To further examine the role of temperature, we alternatively used modelled temperature per Municipality and calculated the effects. We found that heterogeneity was reduced but not eliminated. It appears that there are socioeconomic status and environmental determinants of the magnitude of heat-related effects on mortality, which are detected with some consistency and should be further investigated.

Short-Term Effects of Meteorological Factors and Air Pollutants on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease among Children in Shenzhen, China, 2009–2017

Background: A few studies have explored the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with inconsistent results. Besides, studies about the effects of air pollutants on HFMD are very limited. Methods: Daily HFMD cases among children aged 0–14 years in Shenzhen were collected from 2009 to 2017. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) model was fitted to simultaneously assess the nonlinear and lagged effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on HFMD incidence, and to further examine the differences of the effect across different subgroups stratified by gender, age and childcare patterns. Results: The cumulative relative risk (cRR) (median as reference) of HFMD rose with the increase of daily temperature and leveled off at about 30 °C (cRR: 1.40, 95%CI: 1.29, 1.51). There was a facilitating effect on HFMD when relative humidity was 46.0% to 88.8% (cRR at 95th percentile: 1.18, 95%CI: 1.11, 1.27). Short daily sunshine duration (5th vs. 50th) promoted HFMD (cRR: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.11). The positive correlation between rainfall and HFMD reversed when it exceeded 78.3 mm (cRR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.63). Ozone suppressed HFMD when it exceeded 104 µg /m3 (cRR at 99th percentile: 0.85, 95%CI: 0.76, 0.94). NO2 promoted HFMD among infants and the cRR peaked at lag 9 day (cRR: 1.47, 95%CI: 1.02, 2.13) (99th vs. 50th). Besides, children aged below one year, males and scattered children were more vulnerable to high temperature, high relative humidity, and short sunshine duration. Conclusions: Temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, rainfall, ozone and NO2 were significantly associated with HFMD, and such effects varied with gender age and childcare patterns. These findings highlight the need for more prevention effort to the vulnerable populations and may be helpful for developing an early environment-based warning system for HFMD.

Responses of a native and a recent invader snail to warming and dry conditions: the case of the lower Ebro River

Aquatic habitats have been highly modified by human actions that reduce their native diversity and create conditions suitable for tolerant alien species. Pomacea maculata was detected in 2009 in both the alluvial plain and the final stretch of the Ebro River. Since then, a permanent population has stabilized in the littoral area of the river where the water level fluctuates according to the river discharge. Melanopsis tricarinata is an endemic snail species highly affected by the reduction in its natural habitat. Currently, the two species do not share the same reaches in the river, but the possibility exists, as the distribution of the P. maculata is constantly increasing. This study aims to analyse the diets and to assess the responses of both snails to global change. The diet of both species was analysed in the field and their responses to water warming and dryness compared under laboratory conditions. This study includes the calculation of future river water temperatures based on air temperature projections. In addition, based on water discharge management scenarios, the study estimated the increase in dry river bed area. The diet of both snail species was similar and based on Cladophora. P. maculata better resisted high temperatures and dry conditions than M. tricarinata. The projections of water temperatures showed an increase in daily temperatures, especially in summer. The hydraulic model suggested that a relevant increase in dry river bed areas will occur. Overall, these results provide insight into the global change factors that could favour P. maculata spread in the river and the reduction in suitable habitat for M. tricarinata and will be useful for future decisions of water discharge management.

Áreas potenciales y vulnerabilidad del cultivo de café tipo robusta (Coffea canephora P.) al cambio climático en el estado de Tabasco, México

El gobierno federal a través de la Dirección General de Zonas Tropicales de la Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación (SAGARPA), ha venido im-pulsando la apertura de 20,000 ha del cultivo de café robusta en los estados del sur-sureste. Como parte de esa iniciativa se realiza el presente estudio para determinar en qué áreas del estado de Tabasco este tipo de café puede prosperar exitosamente y cuáles serían los impactos del cambio climático a mitad del siglo XXI, en su adaptación y rendimiento. Así, el objetivo del presente estudio fue: determinar las mejores áreas desde el punto de vista de clima y suelo, para cultivar café tipo robusta (Coffea canephora P.) en el estado de Tabasco y su posible vulnerabilidad al cambio climático a mediados del presente siglo.Método: Lo anterior se realizó utilizando la metodología de Zonificación Agro-Ecológica (ZAE) pro-puesta por la FAO para las condiciones actúales y para el escenario de cambio climático (RCP8.5), esperado a mediados del siglo XXI.Asimismo, se estimaron los rendimientos potenciales para tres niveles de insumo (bajo, medio y alto) en las áreas resultantes muy aptas, para ambas condiciones climáticas, utilizando el método de Zonas Agro-Ecológicas (ZAE) propuesto por la FAO (1981) y actualizado por Fischer et al. (2012).Resultados: Los resultados indican que de ocurrir un incremento promedio diario de 1.6 ºC para el año 2050, bajo el peor escenario (RCP8.5), la superficie muy apta para cultivar café tipo robusta en el estado de Tabasco no se modifica. En cambio, los rendimientos potenciales promedio disminuirán en 41% para el año 2050, debido al efecto del incremento de las temperaturas diurnas sobre la tasa fotosintética máxima.Discusión: En el estado de Tabasco existen actualmente 154,755.14 ha edafoclimáticamente muy aptas para establecer el cultivo de café tipo robusta. Bajo el escenario de cambio climático A2 (RCP8.5) se espera un incremento en la temperatura promedio diaria de 1.6 ºC, la cual no afectará la aptitud edafoclimática del café robusta. Los rendimientos potenciales promedio varían en función del nivel de insumos para la edad y densidad de siembra señalada.

Integrating new indicators of predictors that shape the public's perception of local extreme temperature in China.

The public's risk perception of local extreme heat or cold plays a critical role in community health and prevention under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on such issues in China where extreme weather is occurring more frequently due to climate change. Here, a total of 2500 residents were selected using a three-step sampling method and investigated by a questionnaire in two representative cities. We investigated risk perception of extreme heat in Beijing and extreme cold in Harbin in 2013, aiming to examine their possible correlations with multiple epidemiological factors. We found that exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability were significant predictors in shaping public risk perceptions of local extreme temperature. In particular, a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in an increased odds of perceiving serious extreme heat in Beijing (OR=1.091; 95% CI: 1.032, 1.153), while a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in a decreased odds of perceiving serious extreme cold in Harbin (OR=0.965; 95% CI: 0.939, 0.992). Therefore for both extreme heat and cold, frequent local extreme temperature exposure may amplify a stronger communication. Health interventions for extreme temperature should consider exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability factors. This will help improve the public's perception of climatic changes and their willingness to balance adaption and mitigation appropriately.

Increasing heat mortality among European Union citizens under global warming in 21 Century

Introduction: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considers it likely that climate change-driven increases in daily temperatures may have already increased the number of heat-related deaths. This study attempts to describe the change in environmental heat conditions that the EU 28 states could experience under climate change, and the effects such change could have on excess heat-related mortality in two future periods within the 21st century. Methods: the country-specific heat mortality/apparent temperature thresholds and slopes were estimated separately for Mediterranean, northern and central-eastern European countries. For each day of the “warm season” (01 April–30September), the daily attributable fraction (i.e. the fraction of deaths as a percentage attributable to mean apparent temperature above the threshold) were calculated using 4 RCP8,5 and one RCP4.5 models. The baseline climate (1971-2000) and meteorological projections for two future time periods: 2036-2064 and 2071-2099 were considered. Results: Both, citizens from Mediterranean (Cyprus, Greece, Spain) and Eastern EU countries (Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania) will be most affected by heat. Other Mediterranean countries (Italy, Portugal and France) as well as other Eastern EU countries (Slovakia and Czech Republic) will be affected by heat too. Even the risk from heat will be lower for the citizens in North-western EU countries compared with others there will be still registered heat deaths in warm season. Conclusions: Advocating for further improvement, development and implementation of heat-wave preparedness, planning and response in European countries would lead to a reduction in heat-related mortality. A focus should be placed on developing strong intersectoral coordination, effective early warning and health system response mechanisms as well as surveillance and evaluation measures. Long-term planning, including urban planning and housing, becomes even more relevant than before.

Temperature thresholds for spikelet sterility and associated warming impacts for sub-tropical rice

Abstract Identifying a reliable and robust temperature threshold inducing rice spikelet sterility under field conditions involving cultivars with highly varying phenology has been a major limitation. This challenge has been a consistent bottleneck in devising a phenotyping strategy for rice breeders and to accurately estimate heat stress impacts by the climate and crop modeling communities. In an attempt to address this challenge, we used 292 diverse indica cultivars, recorded 15 min air temperature data during the key flowering period across wet season and two consecutive dry (summer) seasons. We identified 33 °C as the critical threshold beyond which large sterility increases were observed. This is the first report that demonstrates the need to consider cultivar and seasonal fixed effects in a regression model framework to derive meaningful temperature thresholds. We find that an additional growing degree hour (GDH) above 33 °C is associated with a 0.26 percentage point increase in sterility. The average and maximum exposures above this threshold in the sample data are 13.0 and 46.5 h, respectively, corresponding to a 3.4 and 12.0 percentage point increase in sterility. We simulate warming impacts between 0.5–2.0 °C increase in daily temperatures, which increases sterility between 2.9–13.1 percentage points for the dry summer season and 0.2–3.2 percentage points for the wet season. Evidence for threshold heterogeneity across different sterility classes – low, medium and high sterility cultivar groups is tested and we find limited evidence for this extension of the model. The identified threshold can be utilized by breeders to test contrasting cultivars or segregating mapping populations in an unbiased set up and for precise heat stress impact modeling exercises. Heat sensitivity analysis indicated substantial genetic variability for heat induced spikelet sterility, providing ample evidence for producer adaptation to a warming climate by developing and switching to more heat stress resilient cultivars.

Accelerated stone deterioration induced by forest clearance around the Angkor temples

The present study provides the first quantitative assessment of the deteriorative impact of forest clearance on susceptible sandstone masonries. At Ta Keo, a 1000yr-old temple cleared of the Angkor forest in the early 20th century, GIS-based analysis of historic imagery indicates an average ten-fold increase in stone loss rates (0.2 instead of 0.02% per year). This accelerated decay is assigned to the climatic stress provoked by the exposure of fragile ornamented sandstones to the harsh impact of tropical sunshine and monsoon rains. Comparative climate monitoring with the Beng Mealea temple, still located in a forested environment, suggests a three-fold post-clearance increase in daily temperature and humidity ranges, which is conducive to enhanced swelling-shrinking movements responsible for accelerated sandstone contour scaling. Comparative visual assessment based on a customised 7-point scale of mechanical weathering confirms the protective role of canopy, with 79% of decorative motifs still almost free of mechanical weathering in the forest (against 7% at the cleared site). Disruption of archaeological structures by roots of individual trees can be locally observed at Angkor, but this does not negate the dominant overall buffering function of the forest cover. At Angkor and other cultural heritage sites, this bioprotective ‘umbrella effect’ should be considered as a valuable ecosystem service to be taken into account when defining and implementing strategies of sustainable management.

Differential effects of temperature variability on the transmission of a marine parasite

Temperature variability is particularly pronounced in intertidal systems. The importance of considering this variability has been increasingly recognised, especially in the context of climate change and disease dynamics. Here, we investigated the effects of temperature variability on the transmission of the intertidal trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis. The experimental treatments were 15 °C (control), 15 + 5 °C daily, 15 + 10 °C every second day, 15 + 15 °C every third day (overall equal thermal loading), and a heat wave treatment (15 + 10 °C daily). Daily 6 h incubations were carried out corresponding to daytime low tides over a 12-day period. Effects on output of transmission stages (cercariae) from infected Zeacumantus subcarinatus snail hosts and transmission success of cercariae to Paracalliope novizealandiae amphipod hosts were quantified, as well as the survival of amphipods. Results showed differential effects on output and transmission success. The number of cercariae emerging was similar for treatments with equal thermal loading, but was substantially increased in the heat wave treatment. Transmission success was highest and comparable for the treatments with regular daily temperature increases (i.e. 15 + 5 °C and heat wave), compared to other treatments. Amphipod survival was not affected by temperature treatment directly, but by the number of parasites infecting an amphipod, as well as amphipod sex. These results demonstrate that cercarial output depends mostly on total thermal loading, whereas successful infection of amphipods is determined by total time above 15 °C. Repeated exposure to ~25 °C, as expected under a heat wave scenario, therefore increases both transmission pressure and success, and hence, the risk of parasite-induced mortality in amphipods.