Increase In Capital Inflows Research Articles

Development and benefit of FDI in India

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a key source of funds for India's economic development. Totake advantage of India's evolving economic climate and lower labour, foreign firms engage directly in fastgrowingprivate Indian enterprises. There are so many advantages of Foreign Direct Investments in Indialike Promotion of investment in key areas, New technologies, Increase in Capital inflow, Increase inExports, Promotion of Employment opportunities, Promotion of financial services, Exchange ratestability and development of backward areas. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is critical to a country'seconomic development. The entry of foreign cash has allowed India to improve its infrastructure,increase productivity, and increase employment. FDI also serves as a vehicle for acquiring sophisticatedtechnology and mobilizing foreign exchange reserves. This Article is an attempt to explore new benefitsof FDI for the economic growth of the nation.

Pegged exchange rate regime and its impact on inflation in BRICS nations: Country-wise evidence

During the 1990s and 2000s, many developing nations accepted fixed exchange rate regimes to sustain price stability. By pegging their currencies to an anchor currency (i.e. US dollar), developing countries could bring credibility and confidence into their economies. The study tries to analyse the impact of the pegged exchange rate regime on inflation in BRICS countries for the period spanning from 2003 to 2022. The result points to the loss of monetary policy autonomy due to the ‘impossible trinity’ coming into play with a steady increase in capital inflows. The country’s large trade surpluses and extensive trade relationships may buffer the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices, as changes in the exchange rate may be absorbed by changes in trade volumes or pricing strategies. Other factors like demographic trends or government interventions in markets could overshadow the influence of the exchange rate regime on inflation. The impact of changes in the exchange rate regimes on inflation may operate with lags, meaning that any effects may not be immediately observable in the data. The analysis in this study proposes that exchange rate regimes choice and money supply influence the inflation dynamics in the BRICS countries. It merely reflects the success of the central bank in neutralizing its very effort of maintaining the pegged rate, which gives rise to inflationary growth of the money supply.

Capital flows to low-income sub-Saharan Africa: an exploratory review

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to examine macroeconomic and institutional factors that influence capital flows to low-income sub-Saharan African (SSAn) countries. It analyzes capital flows in a disaggregated manner: foreign divert investment, portfolio equity and portfolio debt. There is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for various types of capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. Low-income SSAn countries attract very low levels of foreign investment compared to other developing economies in the SSAn region and other developing economies and this paper attempts to make a contribution in this area.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines data on capital flows and that of various push and pull factors. Trends and dynamics of capital inflows and their macroeconomic and institutional drivers are analyzed for low-income sub-Saharan African countries. Such an analysis has not been fully explored for low-income SSAn countries.FindingsCapital inflows to low-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have increased sevenfold since the 1990s, dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI). They overtook official development assistance and aid in the 2010s. Mozambique and Ethiopia attract the largest size of FDI compared to other low-income SSAn economies, with natural resources as key factors in the former. The largest share of FDI to low-income SSAn countries comes from other SSAn countries, mostly South Africa and Mauritius. Among macroeconomic push factors, capital inflows are more closely related to commodity prices, while the volatility index and global liquidity are also important. Among macroeconomic pull factors, trade openness and economic growth appear more closely related to capital inflows. The surge in capital inflows in the 2000s also followed the implementation of several regional trade and investment agreements in the region. The improvement in internal conflict in the 1990s and mid-2000s seems to have helped support the increase in capital inflows during that period. This institutional quality variable appears to more closely track capital inflows compared to other institutional quality indicators. There were also improvements in the investment profile, law and order, and government stability in the 1990s to early 2000s when capital inflows picked up.Research limitations/implicationsThis study focuses on low-income SSAn countries, which are less studied in the empirical literature and that face immense developmental needs that require foreign and domestic capital.Practical implicationsFindings of this paper can shed light to policy makers on the factors that are most important to help the region attract capital inflows and areas where further improvement is needed in the macroeconomic and institutional environment.Originality/valueThere is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for attracting capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. To our knowledge, this study may be the first to explore dynamics of capital flows against institional quality for low-income SSAn countries at a disaggregated level.

Can capital inflows reduce financing costs in emerging economies? Firm-level evidence from China and Malaysia

We examine how changes in unrecorded capital inflow affect financing costs of firms in China and in Malaysia, which share a capital control system that escorted them through the financial crises in 1997 and in 2007. Utilizing a firm panel of the 2006–2014 period, we find that capital inflows into China reduce the financing cost of state-owned firms (SOEs), and city commercial banks (CCBs) help enhance this effect. An increase in capital inflow also reduces the financing cost of firms in Malaysia, especially that of foreign firms. To verify the effect of capital inflows, we utilize the China-U.S. interest rate gap and U.S. inflation as the IVs for capital inflows and find robust results. A difference-in-differences (DID) analysis of the unexpected decrease in capital inflow amid the COVID-19 pandemic also confirms the finding. We contribute by hand-collecting novel city and bank data to examine the unrecorded capital inflows that were rarely studied, and by using an unwanted decrease in capital inflow to identify the effect of capital inflows in a DID analysis.

Wage Inequality and Unemployment in the Presence of Imported Intermediate Goods: A Theoretical Analysis

This article develops a static three-sector and five-factor competitive general equilibrium model of a small open economy: sector 1 is the rural agricultural sector, which produces products using informal or unorganised unskilled labour and land as inputs; sector 2 is the urban manufacturing, final-goods-producing sector that produces products with the help of unskilled labour, who get unionised wages, and capital; and sector 3 is the service sector, which uses skilled labour with formal wages, capital and sophisticated hi-technology-intensive imported intermediate goods produced abroad as inputs. We show that an exogenous increase in capital inflow or an increase in tariff on imported intermediate input reduces the skilled–unskilled wage inequality and lowers unemployment as long as the return to capital is unaltered and output adjustments absorb the entire shock of the two policies. Such capital inflow increases rural wage and reduces unemployment via the Harris Todaro mechanism but interestingly does not allow the skilled wage to increase. Thus, two critical policy targets can be accommodated at the same time. JEL Codes: F13, J31, J46

Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies

We estimate international spillover effects of US Quantitative Easing (QE) on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a Bayesian panel VAR we find that an expansionary US QE shock has significant effects on financial variables in EMEs. It leads to an exchange rate appreciation, a reduction in long-term bond yields, a stock market boom, and an increase in capital inflows to these countries. These effects on financial variables are stronger for the “Fragile Five” countries compared to other EMEs, which we relate to their weak ex-ante fundamentals.

Effect of foreign exchange intervention: The case of Korea

AbstractUsing a rolling‐window approach that allows time‐varying coefficients, we estimate the vector autoregressive model with the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to analyse the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions in Korea. Our results show that a negative shock in international reserves (buying domestic currency or selling foreign currency) results in a significant appreciation of the domestic currency, a reduction in implied volatility and an increase in capital inflows. We also find that Korean exchange rate policies focus on the stabilization of the foreign exchange market rather than the depreciation of the Korean won. These patterns appear more obvious after the 2008 global financial crisis. This suggests that time variation should be taken into account to better understand the effects of foreign exchange interventions.

Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes Up Must Come Down?*

AbstractI suggest a toolkit of four bubble‐detection methods that can be used to monitor developments in house prices. These methods are applied to US, Finnish, and Norwegian data. For the United States, all measures unanimously suggest a bubble in the early to mid‐2000s, whereas current US house prices are found to be aligned with economic fundamentals. One of the measures indicates imbalances in Finland, while there are no signs of a bubble in Norway. I find that large parts of the US house price bubble can be explained by the sharp increase in capital inflows and the extension of loans to the subprime mortgage market.

Analysis of Effect of Capital Inflow Volatility and Macroeconomic Variables on Rupiah Exchange Rate

The purpose of this research is to measure the effect of the capital inflow volatility on the rupiah exchange rate, to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables on the rupiah exchange rate, and to measure the response of capital inflow shocks and macroeconomic variables on the rupiah exchange rate. The data used is in the form of quarterly time series data from 2002:4-2014:4, which is derived from the data of Bank Indonesia. The model used in this research is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that: (1) In the short-term capital inflow has the positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate, while in the long-term it does not have the significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate. (2) Macroeconomic variable that has the positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate in the short-term is the capital inflow variable. In the long-term the macroeconomic variable that has the positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate is the foreign exchange reserves variable. (3) Results of IRF, the response of the rupiah exchange rate of the capital inflow shocks indicates that an increase in capital inflow has effect on the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate. The shocks on the foreign reserve variable have the positive effect on the rupiah exchange rate, and the shocks on the inflation variable have the negative effect on the rupiah exchange rate.

Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market

This paper uses a natural experiment to show that government access to foreign credit increases private access to credit. I identify a sudden, and unanticipated increase in capital inflows to the sovereign debt market in Colombia, due to a rebalancing in a government bond index by J.P. Morgan. I find that market makers banks in the treasury market reduced their sovereign debt by 7.8 percentage points of assets and increased their credit availability by 4.2 percentage points of assets. Using industry level data, I show that a higher exposure to market makers led to a higher growth in economic activity. Received August 17, 2017; editorial decision January 25, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Returning to the Silk Road: Should Global Portfolios Replace BRICS?

The Silk Road has valid historical significance between nations that have conducted trade for centuries. In recent socioeconomic trends, the re-emergence of the New Silk Road is outlined with perceived implications for investment strategies. Investment portfolios of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) resembling the Silk Road nations are constructed to analyze performance and diversification benefits and are benchmarked against the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) ETF. The results reveal mixed performance: lower correlations with developed markets and an increase in capital inflows, as reflected in ETF subscriptions. Causality testing with developed markets shows a bidirectional causation. Unidirectional causation is also found, running from the Silk Road basket to both BRICS and the MSCI Emerging Market ETF. Moreover, using a hedging approach to investigate effective diversification in a global portfolio, evidence is found of effective international diversification when adding the basket of Silk Road markets. This article puts forward the argument that investors should consider an alternative to BRICS and divert investment attention toward cohesive, frontier economic blocs.

Magnet Effects of Price Limits: Evidence from a Market Liberalization Experiment

This paper tests for the existence of the magnet effect linked to price limits imposed in China's equity markets and how a market liberalization event affects trading in securities bound by price limits. The magnet effect of price limits theorises that, instead of stabilising markets, price limits act as a magnet and result in trade acceleration towards the limits, increasing the likelihood of hit and subsequent constraint on prices. This study provides evidence of the magnet effect in China and evidence that its effect magnifies following the opening of China's capital markets via the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect. The increased magnitude of the magnet effect of price limits is due to new capital inflow from global markets via Hong Kong, as effects are greater for firms that experience the largest increase in capital inflow.

Effects of US Quantitative Easing on Emerging Market Economies

We estimate international spillover effects of US Quantitative Easing (QE) on emerging market economies. Using a Bayesian VAR on monthly US macroeconomic and financial data, we first identify the US QE shock with non-recursive identifying restrictions. We estimate strong and robust macroeconomic and financial impacts of the US QE shock on US output, consumer prices, long-term yields, and asset prices. The identified US QE shock is then used in a monthly Bayesian panel VAR for emerging market economies to infer the spillover effects on these countries. We find that an expansionary US QE shock has significant effects on financial variables in emerging market economies. It leads to an exchange rate appreciation, a reduction in long-term bond yields, a stock market boom, and an increase in capital inflows to these countries. These effects on financial variables are stronger for the "Fragile Five" countries compared to other emerging market economies. We however do not find significant effects of the US QE shock on output and consumer prices of emerging markets.

Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano

This article provides empirical evidence about the relationship between capital flows, natural resource exploitation, and de-industrialisation in the case of Colombia. To this end, we analyze if the massive increase in capital inflows during the latest commodity boom led to an additional appreciation of Colombia's real effective exchange rate, thereby aggravating Dutch disease symptoms. Our results show that capital inflows, above all flows of foreign direct investment into the mining and energy sector, indeed contributed to the appreciation of Colombia's real effective exchange rate, which, in turn, negatively affected the trading sector in general, and the manufacturing sector in particular. This finding demonstrates that not only the exploitation of natural resources as such, but also the way in which this exploitation is financed influences the economies of developing countries.

Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?

This paper investigates the influence of international capital flows on housing prices in eight Asian countries, including China. We focus on determining whether exchange rate arrangements and capital regulations influence capital inflows and housing prices. Our results show that an arrangement to restrain the fluctuation of the exchange rate and capital controls has the potential to raise housing prices in Asia. The strong prospect of the Chinese yuan's appreciation also pushed up housing prices in China. Another expected reason for the increase in capital inflows into Asian markets is the expansion of global liquidity. Such capital flows often have a sensitive reaction to market sentiment, and an increase in asset market volatility caused by the liquidity squeeze decreases Asian housing prices. These results suggest the need to review capital controls and future exchange rate system options for Asian countries.

Gender Analysis of the Policy Responses to High Oil Prices: A Case Study of South Africa

ABSTRACTThe 2007–8 surge in oil prices has created concern about its impacts on poor and vulnerable populations in developing countries. Government management of the energy crisis was shown to be important in reducing adverse impacts. This study uses an applied general equilibrium framework to examine alternative policy and external shocks with the recent surge in oil prices in South Africa through a gender lens. Simulation results show that although the 2007–8 energy crisis contributed to slowing down South African gross domestic product (GDP) growth and reducing employment and earnings, the distributional impact between men and women has been neutral. This neutrality is driven by an increase in capital inflows, which has mitigated the exchange rate depreciation owing to the oil price hike. Without an increase in capital inflows, the crisis would have significantly depreciated the exchange rate and contributed to decreasing women's market opportunities and increasing women's workload as compared to men.

Effects of US Quantitative Easing on Emerging Market Economies

We estimate international spillover effects of US Quantitative Easing (QE) on emerging market economies. Using a Bayesian VAR on monthly US macroeconomic and financial data, we first identify the US QE shock with non-recursive identifying restrictions. We estimate strong and robust macroeconomic and financial impacts of the US QE shock on US output, consumer prices, long-term yields, and asset prices. The identified US QE shock is then used in a monthly Bayesian panel VAR for emerging market economies to infer the spillover effects on these countries. We find that an expansionary US QE shock has significant effects on financial variables in emerging market economies. It leads to an exchange rate appreciation, a reduction in long-term bond yields, a stock market boom, and an increase in capital inflows to these countries. These effects on financial variables are stronger for the “Fragile Five” countries compared to other emerging market economies. We however do not find significant effects of the US QE shock on output and consumer prices of emerging markets.

Environmental Regulation Induced Foreign Direct Investment

The last decade has witnessed a renewed interest in the relationship between environmental regulations and international capital flows. However, empirical studies have so far failed to find conclusive evidence for this so-called pollution haven or race to the bottom effect where foreign direct investment (FDI) is assumed to be attracted to low regulation countries, regions or states. In this paper we present a simple theoretical framework to demonstrate that greater stringency in environmental standards can lead to a strategic increase in capital inflows which we refer to as environmental regulation induced FDI. Our result reveals a possible explanation for the mixed results in the empirical literature and provides an illustration of the conditions under which environmental regulations in the host country can affect the location decision of foreign firms.

Foreign capital flows into India: Compositions, regulations, issues and policy options

Existing studies reveals that the huge surge in international capital flows since early 1990s has created unprecedented opportunities for the developing countries like India to achieve accelerated economic growth. International financial institutions routinely advise developing countries to adopt policy regimes that encourage capital inflows. Since the introduction of the reform process in the early 1990s, India has witnessed a significant increase in capital inflows. The size of net capital inflows to India increased from US $ 7.1 billion in 1990-91 to US $ 108.0 billion in 2007-08. Today, India has one of the highest net capital inflows among the EMEs of Asia. Capital inflows, however, not an unmitigated blessing. The main danger posed by large and volatile capital inflows is that they may destabilize macroeconomic management. As evident, the intensified pressures due to large and volatile capital flows in India in the recent period in an atmosphere of global uncertainties has posed new challenges for monetary and exchange rate management. The present paper elaborates on various aspects of the capital inflows to India and their policy implications. Key words: Capital inflows, policy, exchange rate, India.

The economic effects of improving investor rights in Portugal

The Portuguese economy has performed remarkably well since joining the EU in 1986. Output per worker grew at an annual rate of 2.25%. The relative price of investment has declined. Real investment has increased compared to output, in part fuelled by an increase in capital inflows. At the same time, resource allocation seems to have improved as well: firm-level data shows a significant decline in the dispersion of labor productivity and size across firms. This paper argues that improvements in outside investor rights that have taken place since Portugal joined the EU is a prime candidate to explain this set of facts.