Increase In Average Precipitation Research Articles

Changes in monsoon precipitation in East Asia under a 2°C interglacial warming.

Past intervals of warming provide the unique opportunity to observe how the East Asia monsoon precipitation response happened in a warming world. However, the available evaluations are primarily limited to the last glacial-to-interglacial warming, which has fundamental differences from the current interglacial warming, particularly in changes in ice volume. Comparative paleoclimate studies of earlier warm interglacial periods can provide more realistic analogs. Here, we present high-resolution quantitative reconstructions of temperature and precipitation from north-central China over the past 800 thousand years. We found that the average precipitation increase, estimated by the interglacial data, was only around one-half of that estimated for the glacial-to-interglacial data, which is attributed to the amplification of climate change by ice volume variations. Analysis of the interglacial data suggests an increase in monsoon precipitation of ~100 mm for a warming level of 2°C on the Chinese Loess Plateau.

Climate Change Impacts on Household Income in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

As climate change continues to pose a significant challenge globally, this study examines its impact on household income, delineating the differential impacts across agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in Pakistan. Utilizing household data from 2020 for 156,441 households across 126 districts of Pakistan, along with climate variable data spanning from 1960 to 2020, the research employs multiple regression analysis with robust standard errors to explore these impacts. The findings reveal that changes in the mean values of temperature and precipitation, as well as the variability of these climate variables, have a statistically significant impact on household income. Specifically, a one-degree Celsius rise in average temperature leads to a 3.3% decrease in income for households in the agricultural sector and a 0.4% decrease for those in non-agricultural sectors. The variability in temperature, indicated by a one-degree increase in its standard deviation, similarly results in a 4% income reduction for households across both sectors. Conversely, a one-decimeter increase in average precipitation is associated with a modest income increase of 0.33% and 0.19% for the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, respectively. However, greater variability in precipitation adversely affects income in both sectors. The research highlights the vulnerability of households, especially those in agriculture, to climate change and shows non-agricultural sectors are also affected. It offers insights into climate change's economic impacts and suggests developing targeted policies to improve adaptation and resilience.

Environmental Characteristics of High Ice-Content Permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Permafrost areas are sensitive to climate change and have a significant impact on energy and water cycles. Ground ice is a crucial component on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Understanding the environmental characteristics of ground ice is vital for accurately modeling its distribution and evolution. In this study, we analyzed 15 environmental characteristics of high ice-content permafrost sites. These attributes were extracted from 400 high ice-content permafrost datasets including 300 drilling boreholes and 100 thaw slumps collected throughout the entire plateau using large-scale remote sensing data and their products. The results are as follows: The mean annual air temperature in areas where high ice-content permafrost exists ranges from −5 to −3.5 °C, with an average warming rate of 0.08 °C/a. Additionally, there was an average increase in precipitation of about 25 mm/10a and an increase in soil moisture of about 4%/10a. Geomorphology strongly influences the occurrence of high ice content permafrost, with 85% of high ice-content permafrost development at altitudes between 4400 and 5100 m. Approximately 86% of high ice-content permafrost were developed in lowland or relatively flat areas, preferably in gently sloping and shady slope regions. Soils exhibit less variability in clay particles and more variability in silt and sand. Key indicators in the high ice content permafrost region include warming rate, active layer thickness, elevation, bulk density, soil thickness, clay content, precipitation, soil moisture, and NDVI. High ice-content permafrost is the result of a combination of environmental factors and is expected to undergo significant changes in the future. This study provides a foundation for comprehending the environmental changes in the high ice-content permafrost areas and modeling the distribution of ground ice. It underscores the urgent need to address the significant environmental changes faced by high ice-content permafrost regions.

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact.

Climatic projections of Western India using global and regional climate models

Abstract This research work aimed to project and analyze climatic variability using GCMs and RCMs in the Hathmati River Basin, which happens to be one of the most important tributaries of Western India. The analysis included a baseline period from 1980 to 2014 and a future scenario (2050s) under a representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5). Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, distribution mapping and power transformation were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050 s RCP4.5 simulations showed an increase in precipitation to 1,015.54 mm from 936.91 mm giving around a 8.45% increase in average precipitation. For temperature, the maximum temperature was around a 7.05% increase taking the average temperature to 34.21 from 33.97. The minimum temperature was 20.24 from 20.41 showing a positive change of around 8.4%. The future precipitation and temperature change projected might worsen the water stress and increase the probability of the occurrence of severe events, and hence mitigation strategies and management options to reduce this negative impact should be encouraged.

Update On A Long-term Winter Operational Cloud Seeding Program In Central/Southern Utah

North American Weather Consultants, Inc. (NAWC) has conducted operational winter cloud seeding programs in the mountainous areas of Central and Southern Utah since 1974. Beginning in 1988, seeding has also been conducted in three additional mountainous target areas within the State. The goal of these programs has been to enhance winter snowpack accumulation in the target areas, which now include most of the mountainous areas of the State. Studies have demonstrated that a large majority of the annual runoff in Utah streams and rivers is derived from melting snowpack, which explains the focus on wintertime seeding (within the November – April period). Augmented water supplies are typically used for irrigated agriculture or municipal water supplies. Programs are typically funded at the county level with cost sharing grants from the Utah Division of Water Resources (UDWR) and the three Lower Colorado River Basin States of Arizona, California, and Nevada, since 2007. An earlier WMA paper (Griffith et al. 2009) provided a summary of seeding operations for the water years of 1974 through 2007 for the four target areas. This paper is focused on the Central and Southern Utah program which is both the largest target area and the longest running program in the state. It covers all but three water years from 1974 through 2021 and is one of the three or four longest operational winter cloud seeding programs that have been conducted in the United States. The target area encompasses several mountain ranges in Central and Southern Utah. NAWC has defined the target area boundaries as those locations that are above 7,000 feet MSL. This is a large area of approximately10,000 square miles. Cloud seeding is accomplished using networks of ground-based, manually operated silver iodide nuclei generators located in valley or foothill locations upwind of the intended target mountain barriers. As such, these programs are classified as orographic winter cloud seeding programs. Orographic winter cloud seeding programs are typically categorized as those with the highest level of scientific support based upon capability statements of such organizations as the American Meteorological Society and the Weather Modification Association. NAWC historical target/control evaluations of this program indicate an average increase in December-March target area precipitation of 12% or an average increase in precipitation of 1.3”. These results were significant at the 0.06 level from a one-tailed Student’s t-test. The UDWR has conducted periodic studies to estimate the increases in annual streamflow resulting from the estimated increases in April 1st snow water content produced by this seeding program. The most recent study (UDWR 2018) indicated an estimated average annual streamflow increase of about 84,000 acre-feet for the Central and Southern Utah target area. Factoring in the cost of conducting this program resulted in an estimate of the average cost of the augmented runoff to be $2.02 per acre-foot.

Analysis of Precipitation Trends and Prediction in Selected Cities in the Southeast Louisiana

The impacts of climate change are being felt in Louisiana, in the form of changing weather patterns that have resulted in changes in floods, hurricanes, tornadoes frequencies of occurrence, and magnitudes, among others resulting in, flooding. The variabilities in rainfall in a drainage basin affect water availability and sustainability. This study analyzed the precipitation data of Southeastern Louisiana, United States, for the period 1990 to 2020. Data used in the study was from, Donaldsonville, Galliano, Lafourche, Gonzales, Ascension, Morgan, New Orleans, Audubon, Plaquemine, and Ponchatoula, Tangipahoa, weather stations. These stations were selected because the differences between each of their highest and lowest average annual rainfall data were greater than 20 inches. To investigate climate patterns and trends for the given weather stations in Southeastern Louisiana, precipitation data were analyzed on annual time scales using data collected from the World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal for Development Practitioners and Policy Makers and the Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) of the National Weather Service Prediction Center. The data were further aggregated using annual average blocks of 4 years, and linear and polynomial regression was performed to establish trends. The highest and lowest average annual rainfall data for Donaldsonville, Galliano, Lafourche, Gonzales, Ascension, Morgan, New Orleans, Audubon, Plaquemine, and Ponchatoula, Tangipahoa, weather stations were, 75 and 48, 71 and 44, 73.5 and 52.7, 75 and 46.4, 72 and 41.3, 94 and 55.3, Ponchatoula, and 78.6 and 44, respectively. Plaquemine recorded the highest average annual average rainfall while New Orleans, Audubon station recorded the lowest. The projection of the precipitation in 2030 has been carried out to inform scientists and stakeholders about the approximate quantity of rainfall expected and enable them to make their expected impacts on agriculture, economy, etc. The precipitation for 2030 was predicted by extrapolating models for the weather stations. The data used for the modeling was selected based on the data entries most representative. Hence, the coefficient of correlation and the number of data entries were both considered. Extrapolating results for 2030 precipitation in Donaldsonville, Galliano, Gonzales, Morgan, New Orleans, Audubon, and Plaquemine were found to be within the ranges, (85.6 - 86.7), (75.55 - 76.60), (89.7 - 90.67), (99.9 - 100.5), (71.68 - 72.66), and (107.7 - 108.8) inches, respectively. Hence, the average annual precipitations in areas covered by these stations except for Plaquemine station are expected to significantly increase. A restively low increase in average precipitation is expected for Plaquemine station. The increase could impact agriculture negatively or positively depending on the crop’s soil moisture tolerance.

Assessment of Crash Occurrence Using Historical Crash Data and a Random Effect Negative Binomial Model: A Case Study for a Rural State

This work identifies factors that influence crash occurrence within a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) by accounting for location-specific effects and serial correlation in longitudinal crash data. This is accomplished by applying a random effect negative binomial (RENB) model. Unlike commonly used count models such as Poisson and negative binomial (NB), RENB accounts for heterogeneity and serial correlation in crash occurrence. An RENB was applied to 15 years of crash data in Arkansas with 1,817 TAZs. Four models were developed for total crashes and by severity (property damage only (PDO), injury, and fatal). RENB-estimated impacts were measured using the incidence rate ratio (IRR). The significant causal factors found to increase in observed crashes include: (i) average precipitation (a one-unit increase in average precipitation results in a 134% increase in total monthly crashes for a TAZ); (ii) average wind speed (16%); (iii) urban designation (7%); (iv) traffic volume (2%); and (v) total roadway mileage (1% for each functional class). Snow depth and days of sunshine were found to decrease the number of accidents by 15% and 2%, respectively. Employment and total population had no impact on crash occurrence. Goodness-of-fit comparisons show that RENB provides the best fit among Poisson and NB formulations. All four model diagnostics confirm the presence of over-dispersion and serial correlation indicating the necessity of RENB model estimation. The main contribution of this work is the identification of crash causal factors at the TAZ level for longitudinal data, which supports data-driven performance measurement requirements of recent federal legislation.

Homogenization and trends analysis of the Belgian historical precipitation time series

AbstractLong series of climate observations are essential to understand past and present climate change. However, the study of climate change from raw instrumental data poses a number of specific problems. Firstly, any observations are likely to contain erroneous values. Secondly, measurement conditions have generally changed over time which may introduce artificial breaks in the data that do not reflect the real variations of the climate. This article presents a new dataset of quality controlled and homogenized monthly precipitation series for Belgium. After in‐depth data quality control, monthly precipitation time series have been homogenized with the HOMER software on the basis of available metadata. Homogenization results are provided for 110 series over the period 1951–2019 and for 18 series starting before 1912 including nine covering the full time period 1880–2019. The new dataset of monthly homogenized series allows us to make a robust analysis of the precipitation evolution in Belgium from 1880 to nowadays. The comparison between the average of the last 30 years (1990–2019) with that of the first 30 years (1880–1909) of the considered time period, reveals an average increase in precipitation in the order of 15.5%. However, this average representation of the increase masks important seasonal and regional differences across Belgium.

Predicting the Water Requirement for Rice Production as Affected by Projected Climate Change in Bihar, India

Climate change is a well-known phenomenon all over the globe. The influence of projected climate change on agricultural production, either positive or negative, can be assessed for various locations. The present study was conducted to investigate the impact of projected climate change on rice’s production, water demand and phenology for the state of Bihar, India. Furthermore, this study assessed the irrigation water requirement to increase the rice production by 60%, for the existing current climate scenario and all the four IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) by the 2050s (2050–2059). Various management practices were used as adaptation methods to analyze the requirement of irrigation water for a 60% increase in rice production. The climate data obtained from the four General Circulation Models (GCMs) (bcc_csm1.1, csiro_mk3_6_0, ipsl_cm5a_mr and miroc_miroc5) were used in the crop growth model, with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) used to simulate the rice yield, phenological days and water demand under all four climate change scenarios. The results obtained from the CERES-Rice model in the DSSAT, corresponding to all four GCMs, were ensembled together to obtain the overall change in yield, phenology and water demand for 10 years of interval from 2020 to 2059. We investigated several strategies: increasing the rice’s yield by 60% with current agronomic practice; increasing the yield by 60% with conservation agricultural practice; and increasing the rice yield by 30% with current agronomic practice as well as with conservation agricultural practices (assuming that the other 30% increase in yield would be achieved by reducing post-harvest losses by 30%). The average increase in precipitation between 2020 and 2059 was observed to be 5.23%, 13.96%, 9.30% and 9.29%, respectively, for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The decrease in yield during the 2050s, from the baseline period (1980–2004), was observed to be 2.94%, 3.87%, 4.02% and 5.84% for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The irrigation requirement was predicted to increase by a range of 39% to 45% for a 60% increase in yield using the current agronomic practice in current climate scenario and by 2050s with all the four climate change scenarios from the baseline period (1980–2004). We found that if we combine both conservation agriculture and removal of 30% of the post-harvest losses, the irrigation requirement would be reduced by 26% (45 to 19%), 20% (44 to 24%), 21% (43 to 22%), 22% (39 to 17%) and 20% (41 to 21%) with current climate scenario, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 conditions, respectively. This combination of conservation practices suggests that the irrigation water requirement can be reduced by a large percentage, even if we produce 60% more food under the projected climate change conditions.

Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Trends Observed at Some Selected Districts of Punjab, Pakistan

Present study examines the trends of extreme daily temperature and rainfall indices in some selectedmeteorological stations/districts of the Punjab. Due to paucity of data only six weather stations were selected from thewhole Punjab, having data of 33 years for temperature and precipitation on daily basis. A set of 14 indices(recommended by climate ET) were used to calculate the trends over a period of 32 years (1985–2017) by usingRClimDex (1.0) software package. These results showed that the number of tropical nights (TR20) and warm nights(TN90p) has been increasing in selected weather stations/districts and number for cool nights (TN10p) has been falling.Other temperature related indices trends such as, summer days, warms days, warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) andcool spell duration (CSDI) shows a mix pattern. The precipitation indices like SDII, RX1day, R10mm and PRCPTOTshowed an increasing trend in some selected stations. Most of the trends were not significant at level of 0.05 % whilemaximum day temperature increase has been observed at five out of six selected stations. Similarly, an average increasein precipitation in the vicinity of 3 mm per decade has been noted. The annual total rainfall and number of heavyrainfall days has also increased by 18 mm and 8.4 mm respectively during each decade. The analysis identified andhighlighted a slight change which was not temporally and spatially rational. However, there is need to more andadequate yearly data of different weather stations across the Punjab to identify the ongoing apparent and impeccablechanges in climate of the Punjab province.

Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Trends Observed at Some Selected Districts of Punjab, Pakistan

Present study examines the trends of extreme daily temperature and rainfall indices in some selectedmeteorological stations/districts of the Punjab. Due to paucity of data only six weather stations were selected from thewhole Punjab, having data of 33 years for temperature and precipitation on daily basis. A set of 14 indices(recommended by climate ET) were used to calculate the trends over a period of 32 years (1985–2017) by usingRClimDex (1.0) software package. These results showed that the number of tropical nights (TR20) and warm nights(TN90p) has been increasing in selected weather stations/districts and number for cool nights (TN10p) has been falling.Other temperature related indices trends such as, summer days, warms days, warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) andcool spell duration (CSDI) shows a mix pattern. The precipitation indices like SDII, RX1day, R10mm and PRCPTOTshowed an increasing trend in some selected stations. Most of the trends were not significant at level of 0.05 % whilemaximum day temperature increase has been observed at five out of six selected stations. Similarly, an average increasein precipitation in the vicinity of 3 mm per decade has been noted. The annual total rainfall and number of heavyrainfall days has also increased by 18 mm and 8.4 mm respectively during each decade. The analysis identified andhighlighted a slight change which was not temporally and spatially rational. However, there is need to more andadequate yearly data of different weather stations across the Punjab to identify the ongoing apparent and impeccablechanges in climate of the Punjab province.

Modeling Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of Keleta Watershed in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Regional and local hydrological regimes are significantly vulnerable to global climate change which threaten water resources and food security of nations. This study investigates the likely impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the Keleta watershed in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Delta statistical downscaling methods were used to downscale 20 global circulation models (GCMs) and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) over the study periods of 2050s and 2080s. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate hydrological processes. The model was calibrated and validated using monthly observed streamflow data for the baseline year (1985). It performed well with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ≥ 0.74, ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) ≤ 0.51, and percent bias (PBIAS) ≤ 15.3. The results show that RCP 4.5 predicts an average precipitation increase of 15.2 and 17.2% for mid- and end-of-century data, respectively. Similarly, RCP 8.5 predicts an average precipitation increase of 19.9 and 34.4% for mid- and end-of-century data, respectively. Mid-century minimum and maximum temperature increases range from 1.8 to 1.6 °C (RCP 4.5) to 2.6 to 2.1 °C (RCP 8.5), respectively, while end-of-century increases vary from 2.4 to 2.0 °C (RCP 4.5) and 4.6 to 3.7 °C (RCP 8.5), respectively. This leads to an average increase in runoff by 70%. The increased rainfall, warmer temperature, and significant increment in the hydrologic components, and particularly the excess runoff and associated extreme peak flow over the coming decades, are likely to put a tremendous pressure on the hydrological system of the watershed. This calls for sustainable and effective adaptive measures for future water resource management.

Alluvial plain dynamics and human occupation in SW Amazonia during the Holocene: A paleosol-based reconstruction

The present study reconstructs Holocene fluvial dynamics in the southern Amazonian foreland basin through the analysis of 36 stratigraphic profiles taken along a 300 km long transect across the Llanos de Moxos (LM), in the Bolivian Amazon. Based on 50 radiocarbon ages from paleosols intercalated with fluvial sediments, the most important changes in floodplain dynamics on a millennial scale are reconstructed and the links between pre-Columbian cultural processes and environmental change in the region explored. Results show that the frequency of river avulsions and crevasses, as inferred from the number and age of the cored paleosols, is stable from 8k cal. yrs BP to 4k cal. yrs BP and increases significantly from 4k to 2k cal. yrs BP, following the strengthening of el Niño/la Niña cycle and an increase in average precipitation. Fluvial activity then decreases and reaches its minimum after 2k cal BP. A comparison between the stratigraphic record and the archaeological record shows a match between periods of landscape stability in SW Amazonia (low river activity) and periods of pre-Columbian human occupation. The first Amazonians lived in the LM until 4k yrs. BP, when an abrupt increase in the frequency of river avulsions and crevasses forced the abandonment of the region. After two thousand years of archaeological hiatus, which matches the period of highest river activity in the region, agriculturists reoccupied the Bolivian Amazon.

Factors driving species assemblage in Mediterranean soil seed banks: from the large to the fine scale.

Many studies have analysed the mechanisms that determine plant coexistence in standing vegetation, but the determinants of soil seed bank species assemblies have rarely been studied. In gypsum soil communities, aerial vegetation and seed banks are tightly connected in space and time, but the mechanisms involved in their organization may differ. The aim of this study is to understand the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors controlling soil seed bank composition and structure. Persistent and complete (i.e. persistent plus transient) soil seed banks were investigated at two spatial scales in a very species-rich semi-arid community dominated by annuals. A water addition treatment equivalent to 50 % annual increase in average precipitation (abiotic factor) was applied for two consecutive years, and the relationships of the soil seed bank to the biological soil crust (BSC), above-ground vegetation and the presence of Stipa tenacissima tussocks (biotic factors) were simultaneously evaluated. As expected, the standing vegetation was tightly related to seed abundance, species richness and composition in both seed banks. Remarkably, BSC cover was linked to a decrease in seed abundance and species richness in the persistent seed bank, and it even determined complete seed bank composition at the fine spatial scale. However, this effect disappeared at coarser scales, probably because of the high spatial heterogeneity induced by BSCs. In contrast to findings on standing vegetation, Stipa and the irrigation treatment for two consecutive years had no effect on soil seed banks. Soil seed bank assemblies in our semi-arid plant community were the result of above-ground vegetation dynamics and of the direct filtering processes on seed fate operated by the spatially heterogeneous BSCs. Cover of BSCs was negatively correlated with seed abundance and species richness, and affected seed species composition in the soil. Changes in species composition and enrichment when the BSC cover is low suggest that BSCs promote a fine scale niche differentiation in the soil seed bank and thereby potentially enhance species coexistence and high species diversity in these communities.

LiDAR measurement of seasonal snow accumulation along an elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, California

Abstract. We present results from snow-on and snow-off airborne-scanning LiDAR measurements over a 53 km2 area in the southern Sierra Nevada. We found that snow depth as a function of elevation increased approximately 15 cm per 100 m, until reaching an elevation of 3300 m, where depth sharply decreased at a rate of 48 cm per 100 m. Departures from the 15 cm per 100 m trend, based on 1 m elevation-band means of regression residuals, showed slightly less steep increases below 2050 m; steeper increases between 2050 and 3300 m; and less steep increases above 3300 m. Although the study area is partly forested, only measurements in open areas were used. Below approximately 2050 m elevation, ablation and rainfall are the primary causes of departure from the orographic trend. From 2050 to 3300 m, greater snow depths than predicted were found on the steeper terrain of the northwest and the less steep northeast-facing slopes, suggesting that ablation, aspect, slope and wind redistribution all play a role in local snow-depth variability. At elevations above 3300 m, orographic processes mask the effect of wind deposition when averaging over large areas. Also, terrain in this basin becomes less steep above 3300 m. This suggests a reduction in precipitation from upslope lifting and/or the exhaustion of precipitable water from ascending air masses. Our results suggest a cumulative precipitation lapse rate for the 2100–3300 m range of about 6 cm per 100 m elevation for the accumulation period of 3 December 2009 to 23 March 2010. This is a higher gradient than the widely used PRISM (Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model) precipitation products, but similar to that from reconstruction of snowmelt amounts from satellite snow-cover data. Our findings provide a unique characterization of the consistent, steep average increase in precipitation with elevation in snow-dominated terrain, using high-resolution, highly accurate data and highlighs the importance of solar radiation, wind redistribution and mid-winter melt with regard to snow distribution.

Rise and fall of late Pleistocene pluvial lakes in response to reduced evaporation and precipitation: Evidence from Lake Surprise, California

Widespread late Pleistocene lake systems of the Basin and Range Province indicate substantially greater moisture availability during glacial periods relative to modern times, but the climatic factors that drive changes in lake levels are poorly constrained. To better constrain these climatic forcing factors, we present a new lacustrine paleoclimate record and precipitation estimates for Lake Surprise, a closed basin lake in northeastern California. We combine a detailed analysis of lake hydrography and constitutive relationships describing the water balance to determine the influence of precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and seasonal insolation on past lake levels. At its maximum extent, during the last deglaciation, Lake Surprise covered 1366 km 2 (36%) of the terminally draining Surprise Valley watershed. Using paired radiocarbon and 230 Th-U analyses, we dated shoreline tufa deposits from wave-cut lake terraces in Surprise Valley, California, to determine the hydrography of the most recent lake cycle. This new lake hydrograph places the highest lake level 176 m above the present-day playa at 15.19 ± 0.18 calibrated ka ( 14 C age). This significantly postdates the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when Lake Surprise stood at only moderate levels, 65–99 m above modern playa, similar to nearby Lake Lahontan. To evaluate the climatic factors associated with lake-level changes, we use an oxygen isotope mass balance model combined with an analysis of predictions from the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) climate model ensemble. Our isotope mass balance model predicts minimal precipitation increases of only 2%–18% during the LGM relative to modern, compared to an ∼75% increase in precipitation during the 15.19 ka highstand. LGM PMIP3 climate model simulations corroborate these findings, simulating an average precipitation increase of only 6.5% relative to modern, accompanied by a 28% decrease in total evaporation driven by a 7 °C decrease in mean annual temperature. LGM PMIP3 climate model simulations also suggest a seasonal decoupling of runoff and precipitation, with peak runoff shifting to the late spring–early summer from the late winter–early spring. Our coupled analyses suggest that moderate lake levels during the LGM were a result of reduced evaporation driven by reduced summer insolation and temperatures, not by increased precipitation. Reduced evaporation primed Basin and Range lake systems, particularly smaller, isolated basins such as Surprise Valley, to respond rapidly to increased precipitation during late-Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1). Post-LGM highstands were potentially driven by increased rainfall during HS1 brought by latitudinally extensive and strengthened midlatitude westerly storm tracks, the effects of which are recorded in the region9s lacustrine and glacial records. These results suggest that seasonal insolation and reduced temperatures have been underinvestigated as long-term drivers of moisture availability in the western United States.

A Climatology of 500-hPa Closed Lows and Associated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

AbstractTemporal trends in precipitation associated with 500-hPa low pressure systems are assessed for consistency with overall precipitation trends in the northeastern United States. Increases in precipitation associated with closed upper lows can be attributed to an increase in the number of closed lows and/or an increase in the average precipitation occurring in association with closed lows. A climatological description of 500-hPa closed lows was developed, and precipitation was analyzed using data from the U.S. Cooperative Observer Program. Closed 500-hPa lows were identified within a rectangular geographic region bounded by 35° and 50°N and 65° and 90°W. Precipitation observations within 1.25° of latitude and 1.25° of longitude of the closed-low center were attributed to the closed low. Statistical testing procedures were conducted to evaluate whether a long-term trend existed in the closed-low frequency, the average precipitation occurring near closed lows, or the percentage of >2.54-cm precipitation observations associated with the lows. Regional trends (1948–2007) in the frequency of closed lows were evident, and a statistically significant increase in average precipitation near closed lows was found. Likewise, the percentage of precipitation totals in excess of 2.54 cm (and separately 5.08 cm) showed a statistically significant increase with time. In both cases, recent (2007) values were nearly 50% higher than the comparable value in 1948. Increases were particularly evident during the winter months. These trends are consistent with increases in tropospheric water vapor due to increased global mean temperature.

A modeling study of the climate effects of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over China

In this paper, the RIEMS 2.0 model is used to simulate the distribution of sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon aerosols over China (16.2°–44.1°N, 93.4°–132.4°E) in 1998. The climate effects of these three anthropogenic aerosols are also simulated. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The regional average column burdens of sulfate, BC, OC, and SOC were 5.9, 0.24, 2.4, and 0.49 mg m−2, with maxima of 33.9, 1.48, 7.3, and 1.1 mg m−2, respectively. The column burden and surface concentration of secondary organic carbon accounted for about 20% and 7%, respectively, of the total organic carbon in eastern China. (2) The radiative forcings of sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon at the top of the atmosphere were −1.24, −0.6, and 0.16 W m−2, respectively, with extremes of −5.25, −2.6, and 0.91 W m−2. (3) The surface air temperature changes caused by sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon were −0.07, −0.04, and 0.01 K, respectively. The air temperature increase caused by black carbon at 850 hPa was higher than that at the surface. The net effect of the three kinds of anthropogenic aerosols together decreased the annual average temperature by −0.075 K; the maximum value was −0.3 K. (4) Black carbon can reduce the precipitation in arid and semi-arid areas of northern China and increase the precipitation in wet and semi-wet areas of southern China. The average precipitation increase caused by black carbon in China was 0.003 mm d−1. The net effect of the three kinds of anthropogenic aerosols was to decrease the precipitation over China by 0.008 mm d−1.

Impacts of irrigation on dry season precipitation in India

There is a lack of observed data-based studies examining the role of enhanced soil moisture conditions (due to irrigation) on the prevailing precipitation. Therefore, in the present study, we have examined the impacts of the Green Revolution (GR) related expansion of irrigation and changes in dry season (the rabi (November to May) and the zaid (March to June)) precipitation in India. The results for some regions indicated decreasing and increasing trend in precipitation during the pre- and post-GR periods, respectively. For example, in eastern Madhya Pradesh, the pre- and post-GR precipitation trends for the zaid season were −0.45 and 2.40 mm year−1, respectively. On the other hand, some regions reported lower rate of decline in precipitation during the post-GR period. This paper suggests that both positive and lower declining trend during the post-GR period were linked to increased precipitation due to the introduction of irrigation. The study has found up to 69 mm (121%) increase in total amount of precipitation for growing seasons during the post-GR period. Moreover, a 175% increase in average precipitation was also recorded. All irrigated regions show a notable increase in precipitation during post-GR growing seasons. It was found that differences in growing season average precipitation between the pre- and post-GR periods were statistically significant for most of the regions. For further verification of results, the MM5 and Noah land surface model were applied. These applications show changes in precipitation and various precipitation controlling factors due to changes in soil moisture.