Increase In Mean Annual Temperature Research Articles

Paleoclimate changes and ecosystem responses of the Bulgarian Black Sea zone during the last 26000 years

Multi-proxy analysis (spore-pollen, dinoflagellate cysts, other non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs), radiocarbon dating and lithology) was performed on marine sediments from three new cores retrieved during the two cruise expeditions on board the Research Vessel “Akademik” in 2009 and 2011. The Varna transect comprises three cores extending from the outer shelf, continental slope and deep-water zone. The record spans the last 26000 years (all ages obtained in this study are given in calendar years BP (cal. yrs BP)). The pollen record reveals the spreading of steppe vegetation dominated by Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae, suggesting cold and dry environments during the Late Pleniglacial – Oldest Dryas (25903–15612 cal. yrs BP). Stands of Pinus and Quercus reflect warming/humidity increase during the melting pulses (19.2–14.5 cal. ka BP) and the Late Glacial interstadials Bølling and Allerød. The Younger Dryas (13257–11788 cal. yrs BP) coldest and driest environments are clearly demonstrated by the maximum relative abundance of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae. During the Early Holocene (Preboreal and Boreal chronozones, 11788–8004 cal. yrs BP), Quercus appeared as a pioneer species and, along with other temperate deciduous arboreal taxa, formed open deciduous forests as a response to the increased temperature. The rapid expansion of these taxa indicates that they survived in Glacial refugia in the coastal mountains. During the Atlantic chronozone (8004–5483 cal. yrs BP), optimal climate conditions (high humidity and increased mean annual temperatures) stimulated the establishment of species-rich mixed temperate deciduous forests. During the Subboreal chronozone (5483–2837 cal. yrs BP), Carpinus betulus and Fagus expanded simultaneously and became more important components of mixed oak forests and probably also formed separate communities. During the Subatlantic chronozone (2837 cal. yrs BP to pre-industrial time), climate-driven changes (an increase of humidity and a cooling of the climate) appear to be the main drivers of the specific vegetation succession expressed by increased abundance of Alnus, Fraxinus excelsior and Salix along with lianas, suggesting formation of flooded riparian forests (so called ‘Longoz’) lining the river valleys along the Black Sea coast. The first indicators of farming and other human activities have been recorded since 7074 cal. yrs BP. The dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages have been analysed to assess the changes in the Black Sea environment over the last 26000 years in terms of fluctuation in paleoproduction and surface water conditions related to changes in climate, freshwater input and Mediterranean water intrusion. Two major dinocyst assemblages were distinguished: one dominated by stenohaline freshwater/brackish-water species and a successive one dominated by euryhaline marine species. The changes in the composition of the assemblages occurred at 7668 cal. yrs BP. The abrupt decrease of stenohaline freshwater/brackish-water species Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis was followed upwards by a gradual increase in euryhaline marine species, such as Lingulodinium machaerophorum, Spiniferites belerius, S. bentorii and acritarch Cymatiosphaera globulosa. The first occurrence of euryhaline marine species took place synchronously with the onset of sapropel deposition. Modern marine conditions were established after 6417 cal yrs BP when an abundance of Mediterranean-related species, such as Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites mirabilis, along with other heterotrophic species, occurred. After the stable cold and dry environment during the Last Glacial Maximum, the phytoplankton record of core AKAD 11-17 shows that Pediastrum boryanum var. boryanum has a cyclical abundance associated with the deposition of four red-brown clay layers between 19.2 and 14.5 cal. ka BP. This event is associated with the major melting phase of European Ice drained by the Danube and Dnieper Rivers in response to climate warming observed after the end of the Last Glacial Maximum. During the Early Holocene, P. psilata, characterised by a preference to warmer temperatures, demonstrates its ecological optimum for growth concerning SST reaching maximum relative abundance of 94% between 11072 and 8638 cal. yrs BP. This maximum was interrupted by an abrupt significant short-term decrease in the relative abundance of P. psilata centred between 8500 and 8300 cal. yrs BP reflecting cold conditions similar to those of Younger Dryas. This finding, also confirmed by the rapid significant decrease of arboreal pollen, particularly of Quercus in the same studied core, is considered a regional expression of the well-known ‘8.2 ka cold event’ which is commonly linked to a meltwater-related perturbation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated collapse of oceanic northward heat transport. Our fossil pollen and dinocyst data confirm that the high amplitude temperature anomaly associated with ‘the 8.2 ka cold event’ may have also occurred in south-eastern Europe, at lower latitudes of the western Black Sea coastal area, most probably due to atmospheric transition and/or river discharge.

Response of beech and fir to different light intensities along the Carpathian and Dinaric Mountains.

Predicting global change mitigations based on environmental variables, like temperature and water availability, although yielding insightful hypothesis still lacks the integration of environmental responses. Physiological limits should be assessed to obtain a complete representation of a species' fundamental niche. Detailed ecophysiological studies on the response of trees along the latitudinal gradient are rare. They could shed light on the behaviour under different light intensities and other studied traits. The forests of the Dinaric Mountains and the Carpathians represent the largest contiguous forest complexes in south-eastern Europe. In uneven-aged Carpathian (8 plots) and Dinaric Mountain (11 plots) forests, net assimilation (Amax) and maximum quantum yield (Φ) were measured for beech and fir in three predefined light intensity categories according to the indirect site factor (ISF%) obtained by the analysis of hemispherical photographs in managed and old growth forests, all located above 800 m a.s.l. The measurements were carried out under fixed environmental conditions in each light category per plot for three consecutive years. Data from the last 50-year average period from the CRU TS 4.01 dataset were used for the comparison between Amax, Φ, and climate. The highest Φ for beech were observed in the central part of the Dinaric Mountains and in the south westernmost and northwesternmost part of the Carpathians for both beech and fir, while they were highest for fir in the Dinaric Mountains in the northwesternmost part of the study area. The Φ-value of beech decreased in both complexes with increasing mean annual temperature and was highest in the open landscape. For fir in the Carpathians, Φ decreased with increasing mean annual temperature, while in the Dinaric Mountains it increased with higher temperature and showed a more scattered response compared to the Carpathians. Short-term ecophysiological responses of beech and fir were consistent to long-term radial growth observations observed on same locations. The results may provide a basis and an indication of the future response of two tree species in their biogeographical range to climate change in terms of competitiveness, existence and consequently forest management decisions.

Should the relationship between leaf margin and temperature be re‐defined for areas with colder climates?

AbstractAimThe well‐proven positive correlation between the increased proportion of entire‐leaved woody dicotyledonous species and increased mean annual temperature has been commonly used to estimate temperature in the past. However, in regions of colder climates, this relationship is not straightforward, questioning the accuracy of temperature estimation.LocationFinland, Poland, Germany.TaxonDicotyledons.MethodsThe floristic composition of 10 × 10 km squares in 20 km wide transects through Finland, Poland and Germany was analysed.ResultsAt higher temperatures, deciduous woody plants appeared to show the expected positive relationship between mean annual temperature and the proportion of entire leaf margins. However, we found a negative correlation within woody deciduous plants at higher latitudes with mean annual temperature values from approximately −2.5°C to +2–4°C and at all temperatures when all woody plants were included. Herbaceous species showed a weak relationship between morphology and temperature.Main ConclusionsThe hypothesis that the phenomenon was caused by a large percentage of entire‐leaved evergreen species that winter under snow cover was rejected. These results indicate that using the leaf margin analysis method for past temperature estimation is increasingly inaccurate at colder temperatures. Consequently, we recommend avoiding this method at locations where the mean annual temperature falls below 5°C.

A global meta-analysis on the effects of organic and inorganic fertilization on grasslands and croplands.

A central role for nature-based solution is to identify optimal management practices to address environmental challenges, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. Inorganic fertilization increases plant aboveground biomass but often causes a tradeoff with plant diversity loss. It remains unclear, however, whether organic fertilization, as a potential nature-based solution, could alter this tradeoff by increasing aboveground biomass without plant diversity loss. Here we compile data from 537 experiments on organic and inorganic fertilization across grasslands and croplands worldwide to evaluate the responses of aboveground biomass, plant diversity, and soil organic carbon (SOC). Both organic and inorganic fertilization increase aboveground biomass by 56% and 42% relative to ambient, respectively. However, only inorganic fertilization decreases plant diversity, while organic fertilization increases plant diversity in grasslands with greater soil water content. Moreover, organic fertilization increases SOC in grasslands by 19% and 15% relative to ambient and inorganic fertilization, respectively. The positive effect of organic fertilization on SOC increases with increasing mean annual temperature in grasslands, a pattern not observed in croplands. Collectively, our findings highlight organic fertilization as a potential nature-based solution that can increase two ecosystem services of grasslands, forage production, and soil carbon storage, without a tradeoff in plant diversity loss.

Restricted plant diversity limits carbon recapture after wildfire in warming boreal forests

Incomplete wildfire combustion in boreal forests leaves behind legacy plant-soil feedbacks known to restrict plant biodiversity. These restrictions can inhibit carbon recapture after fire by limiting ecosystem transition to vegetation growth patterns that are capable of offsetting warmth-enhanced soil decomposition under climate change. Here, we field-surveyed plant regrowth conditions 2 years after 49 separate, naturally-occurring wildfires spanning the near-entire climatic range of boreal Fennoscandia in order to determine the local to regional scale drivers of early vegetation recovery. Minimal conifer reestablishment was found across a broad range of fire severities, though residual organic soil and plant structure was associated with restricted growth of a variety of more warmth-adapted vegetation, such as broadleaf trees. This dual regeneration limitation coincided with greater concentrations of bacterial decomposers in the soil under increased mean annual temperature, potentially enhancing soil carbon release. These results suggest that large portions of the boreal region are currently at risk of extending postfire periods of net emissions of carbon to the atmosphere under limitations in plant biodiversity generated by wildfire and a changing climate.

Binge drinking associated with mean temperature: a cross-sectional study among Mexican adults living in cities

BackgroundThe association between environmental temperature and alcohol consumption has not been widely explored despite the potential that increasing temperatures could promote the consumption of alcoholic beverages and the alcohol-related burden of disease. We aimed to explore the association between temperature and binge drinking in Mexican adults from urban cities, overall, and by alcoholic beverage type.MethodsData on 10,552 adults ≥ 18 years was obtained from the 2016 National Survey on Drug, Alcohol, and Tobacco Consumption. The mean annual temperature at the municipality was obtained from the Mexican National Weather Service using monthly temperatures from 2015 to 2016. We analyzed binge drinking for all alcoholic beverages in the last year and by type of alcohol as beer, liquor, wine, and coolers. Associations between mean temperature over the past year and binge drinking over the past year among current drinkers were estimated using multilevel Poisson models with robust standard errors adjusted for age, sex, education level, marital status, and household socioeconomic status, with a fixed effect by region.ResultsWe observed a non-significant increase in the prevalence of binge drinking for every difference of 1 °C between municipalities of the same region. By alcohol type, a 1 °C increase in mean annual temperature across municipalities of the same region increased the prevalence of beer binge drinking in the past year by 0.9% (PR = 1.009, 95%CI 1.005, 1.013) among beer consumers and the prevalence of coolers’ binge drinking by 3.0% (PR = 1.030, 95%CI 1.003, 1.057) in coolers consumers. We observed non-significant results for liquor binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95%CI 0.994, 1.102) and wine binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95% 0.944, 1.161).ConclusionPeople living in municipalities with higher temperatures reported a higher beer binge drinking in Mexican cities. This could account for 196,000 cases of beer binge drinking in 2016. The context of each country needs to be considered when generalizing these findings, and they need to be further explored with longitudinal data as there might be implications for climate change. If our findings are confirmed given the forecasted rising temperatures, we could expect an increase in binge drinking and therefore, in the alcohol burden of disease.

Characteristics and Influence Rules of Roadside Ponding along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway

Due to climate change and seasonal precipitation, water conditions in the Qinghai–Tibet region are a significant factor affecting the stability of subgrades. The accumulation of large amounts of surface water leads to subgrade diseases along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway. Based on remote sensing photos obtained from Google Earth Engine and processing the photos using ENVI 5.6.3 and CAD 2019 software, this paper analyzed the distribution characteristics of surface water and studied the impact of roadside ponding on subgrade diseases. The results showed that the total area of surface water was more than 3.7 million m2, and the surface water was most widely distributed in large river areas such as the Tuotuo River and Buqu River. The subgrade diseases of the Qinghai–Tibet Highway could be categorized into three types: settlement, longitudinal crack, and frost boiling, which accounted for 71.09%, 17.13%, and 11.78% of the total number of subgrade diseases, respectively. Additionally, the ground mean annual temperature was an important factor affecting the distribution of surface water, with the surface water area showing an increasing trend with the increase in ground mean annual temperature, and roadside ponding was most likely to form in the high-temperature extremely unstable permafrost area.

Warming waters lead to increased habitat suitability for juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas)

Coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other stressors, including urbanization and overfishing. Consequently, distributions of coastal fish have begun to change, particularly in response to increasing temperatures linked to climate change. However, few studies have evaluated how natural and anthropogenic disturbances can alter species distributions in conjunction with geophysical habitat alterations, such as changes to land use and land cover (LU/LC). Here, we examine the spatiotemporal changes in the distribution of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) using a multi-decadal fishery-independent survey of coastal Alabama. Using a boosted regression tree (BRT) modeling framework, we assess the covariance of environmental conditions (sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, dissolved oxygen, riverine discharge, Chl-a) as well as historic changes to LU/LC to the distribution of bull sharks. Species distribution models resultant from BRTs for early (2003–2005) and recent (2018–2020) monitoring periods indicated a mean increase in habitat suitability (i.e., probability of capture) for juvenile bull sharks from 0.028 to 0.082, concomitant with substantial increases in mean annual temperature (0.058°C/yr), Chl-a (2.32 mg/m3), and urbanization (increased LU/LC) since 2000. These results align with observed five-fold increases in the relative abundance of juvenile bull sharks across the study period and demonstrate the impacts of changing environmental conditions on their distribution and relative abundance. As climate change persists, coastal communities will continue to change, altering the structure of ecological communities and the success of nearshore fisheries.

Species gain and loss per degree Celsius

With climate zones moving poleward, it is interesting to know how rapidly species are gained and lost along temperature gradients. For the Australian native vascular flora, observed climate envelopes for species distributions have here been calculated from data for occurrence at geographical locations. For each degree temperature increase along a continental temperature gradient, numbers of species crossing their cold boundary and hence added to the flora, and crossing their warm boundary and hence lost to the flora, were counted. These counts of gains and losses were expressed as percentages of the flora recorded as present at that temperature. We report results for the flora at > 700 mm rainfall pa along the Australian east coast, where higher rainfall is continuously distributed throughout the latitudinal range. Per °C mean annual temperature increase, 20 ± 11% (mean ± SD) of species were gained, and 14 ± 4% were lost, across the range 9–23°C. Many further questions arise. For example, which other continental floras might show faster or slower rates of species gain and loss along temperature gradients? Similarly, might species with particular traits show faster rates of turnover: for example, species with local dispersal such as those with diaspore morphologies adapted for ants, compared to those adapted for bird dispersal?

Climate Factors Influence Above- and Belowground Biomass Allocations in Alpine Meadows and Desert Steppes through Alterations in Soil Nutrient Availability.

Biomass is a direct reflection of community productivity, and the allocation of aboveground and belowground biomass is a survival strategy formed by the long-term adaptation of plants to environmental changes. However, under global changes, the patterns of aboveground-belowground biomass allocations and their controlling factors in different types of grasslands are still unclear. Based on the biomass data of 182 grasslands, including 17 alpine meadows (AMs) and 21 desert steppes (DSs), this study investigates the spatial distribution of the belowground biomass allocation proportion (BGBP) in different types of grasslands and their main controlling factors. The research results show that the BGBP of AMs is significantly higher than that of DSs (p < 0.05). The BGBP of AMs significantly decreases with increasing mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) (p < 0.05), while it significantly increases with increasing soil nitrogen content (N), soil phosphorus content (P), and soil pH (p < 0.05). The BGBP of DSs significantly decreases with increasing MAP (p < 0.05), while it significantly increases with increasing soil phosphorus content (P) and soil pH (p < 0.05). The random forest model indicates that soil pH is the most important factor affecting the BGBP of both AMs and DSs. Climate-related factors were identified as key drivers shaping the spatial distribution patterns of BGBP by exerting an influence on soil nutrient availability. Climate and soil factors exert influences not only on grassland biomass allocation directly, but also indirectly by impacting the availability of soil nutrients.

Acid rain reduced soil carbon emissions and increased the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration: A comprehensive meta-analysis

Soil respiration the second-largest carbon flux in terrestrial ecosystems, has been extensively studied across a wide range of biomes. Surprisingly, no consensus exist on how acid rain (AR) impacts the spatiotemporal pattern of soil respiration. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis using 318 soil respiration and 263 soil respiration temperature sensitivity (Q10) data points obtained from 48 studies to assess the impact of AR on soil respiration components and their Q10. The results showed that AR reduced soil total respiration (Rt) and soil autotrophic respiration (Ra) by 7.41 % and 20.75 %, respectively. As the H+ input increased, the response rates of Ra to AR (RR-Ra) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to AR (RR-Rh) decreased and increased, respectively. With increased AR duration, the RR-Ra increased, whereas the RR-Rh did not change. AR increased the Q10 of Rt (Rt-Q10) and Rh (Rh-Q10) by 1.92 % and 9.47 %, respectively, and decreased the Q10 of Ra (Ra-Q10) by 2.77 %. Increased mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and initial soil organic carbon increased the response rate of Ra-Q10 to AR (RR-Ra-Q10) and decreased the response rate of Rh-Q10 to AR (RR-Rh-Q10). However, as the AR frequency and initial soil pH increased, both RR-Ra-Q10 and RR-Rh-Q10 also increased. In summary, AR decreased Rt but increased Q10, likely due to soil acidification (soil pH decreased by 7.84 %), reducing plant root biomass (decreased by 5.67 %) and soil microbial biomass (decreased by 5.67 %), changing microbial communities (increased fungi to bacteria ratio of 15.91 %), and regulated by climate, vegetation, soil and AR regimes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to reveal the large-scale, varied response patterns of soil respiration components and their Q10 to AR. It highlights the importance of applying the reductionism theory in soil respiration research to enhance our understanding of soil carbon cycling processes with in the context of global climate change.

Activity and community structure of nitrifiers and denitrifiers in nitrogen-polluted rivers along a latitudinal gradient

Nitrogen (N) cycling in rivers is particularly active and dynamic due to excess nutrient inputs worldwide. However, the multidimensional spatial patterns of the activity and community structure of N-cycling microorganisms in rivers remain unclear, limiting our understanding of river ecological functions, especially N removal capacity. Here, we measured the nitrification and denitrification rates and identified nitrifying and denitrifying microorganisms using high-throughput sequencing of archaeal amoA, bacterial amoA, nirK, and nirS genes in channel sediments, riparian rhizosphere soils, and riparian bulk soils of 30 N-polluted rivers across China. Results showed that in the lateral dimension, nitrification rates in sediments did not differ significantly from those in rhizosphere and bulk soils, but denitrification rates were higher in sediments than in bulk soils. However, the archaeal amoA gene abundance in sediments was considerably lower than that in rhizosphere and bulk soils, and bacterial amoA gene abundance in sediments was greater than that in rhizosphere soils. In the vertical dimension, both nitrification and denitrification rates in riparian bulk soils decreased with soil depth, and topsoils harbored more nitrifying and denitrifying microbes than subsoils. Denitrification but not nitrification rates increased with latitude and altitude but decreased with increasing mean annual temperature and precipitation. Overall, these results provide new insights into the multidimensional spatial patterns of river N cycling at a large scale, which is crucial to evaluating the N removal function of global rivers.

Evaluating the relative influence of climate and human activities on recent vegetation dynamics in West Bengal, India

Assessing the relative importance of climate change and human activities is important in developing sustainable management policies for regional land use. In this study, multiple remote sensing datasets, i.e. CHIRPS (Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data) precipitation, MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), Soil Moisture (SM), WorldPop, and nighttime light have been analyzed to investigate the effect that climate change (CC) and regional human activities (HA) have on vegetation dynamics in eastern India for the period 2000 to 2022. The relative influence of climate and anthropogenic factors is evaluated on the basis of non-parametric statistics i.e., Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator. Significant spatial and elevation-dependent variations in precipitation and LST are evident. Areas at higher elevations exhibit increased mean annual temperatures (0.22 °C/year, p < 0.05) and reduced winter precipitation over the last two decades, while the northern and southwest parts of West Bengal witnessed increased mean annual precipitation (17.3 mm/year, p < 0.05) and a slight cooling trend. Temperature and precipitation trends are shown to collectively impact EVI distribution. While there is a negative spatial correlation between LST and EVI, the relationship between precipitation and EVI is positive and stronger (R2 = 0.83, p < 0.05). Associated hydroclimatic parameters are potent drivers of EVI, whereby PET in the southwestern regions leads to markedly lower SM. The relative importance of CC and HA on EVI also varies spatially. Near the major conurbation of Kolkata, and confirmed by nighttime light and population density data, changes in vegetation cover are very clearly dominated by HA (87%). In contrast, CC emerges as the dominant driver of EVI (70–85%) in the higher elevation northern regions of the state but also in the southeast. Our findings inform policy regarding the future sustainability of vulnerable socio-hydroclimatic systems across the entire state.

Climate Change Prediction in the North–Eastern Area of Bangladesh: A Downscale Modeling Approach

Climate change can significantly impact regional hydrology and human and animal lives. To develop accurate projections of climate change, hydrological models rely on reliable meteorological variables. Generally, a climate model is a computer-based mathematical program based on physics, fluid motion, thermodynamics, and chemistry equations that are used to develop future projections. This paper uses statistical downscale modeling (SDSM) to predict climate change in Bangladesh's northeastern region using rainfall and temperature data from 2001–2015. The study uses data from Dhaka, Mymenshing, Sylhet, Comilla, and Srimangal as a baseline for 2025, 2045, and 2065 climate changes. The study result indicates that Comilla experienced a 340.253 mm increase in maximum rainfall in 2065, while Srimangal experienced a 32.775 mm decrease in 2045. Dhaka experiences the highest mean annual temperature increase of 1.7426°C in 2065 and the lowest mean annual temperature increase of 1.6581°C, respectively. These maximum and minimum temperature characteristics impacting climatic degradation are found in 2065, indicating a potential threat to modern civilization compared to 2025 and 2045.

Unveiling climate change impacts on agricultural sustainability: insights from the united states

Climate change poses significant threats to agricultural systems, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of its impact for effective adaptation strategies. This study examines the influence of climate change on agriculture in the United States, primarily focusing on temperature shifts and precipitation variations. Utilizing historical data and climate projections, we analyse trends in mean temperature and precipitation patterns from 1950 to 2020. The results indicate a noteworthy increase in annual mean temperature over the years, attributed to climate change. This rise in temperature has multifaceted implications, including heat stress in crops and exacerbation of drought conditions. The study also explores the complex relationship between precipitation patterns and climate change, highlighting regional variations and potential shifts in future precipitation trends. By projecting data under SSP 1-1.9 emission scenario, we assess potential changes in mean temperatures, hot days, and precipitation for 2040-2059 periods. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the interplay between climate change and agricultural systems, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies to secure food production and mitigate potential risks. The findings underscore the urgency of proactive measures to safeguard agricultural sustainability and resilience in the face of evolving climatic conditions.

Increased Environmental Temperature Is an Emerging Health Risk That Correlates with Rates of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in Europe

Background: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has calculated that European temperatures have increased at more than double the global average over the last 30 years 1. Besides research in radiation, little research has focused on how this might connect to the mechanisms initiating mutations in ALL. Both latitude and solar irradiance are potential risk factors in the development of ALL 2,3. Latitude covaries with the intensity of solar irradiance and ambient temperature, and both could therefore influence the risk of ALL. Furthermore, high ambient temperature during pregnancy was found to be associated with increased likelihood of childhood ALL 4. Global increases in temperature escalate the likelihood of extreme heat events, which in mammals increases reactive oxygen species, increases DNA damage, and suppresses the immune system 5. Few studies have evaluated changes in ambient temperature as a risk factor for ALL in Europe. We also included chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) for comparison. Objective:To investigate the relationship between population-weighted country centroids (location of greatest population density), average country yearly temperature, solar irradiance and ALL and CLL rates in 40 European countries between the years 2010 and 2019. Design/Method:Incidence and prevalence rates for ALL and CLL (Age-standardized data with males and females) were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) database. Population-weighted latitude/longitude centroids for Europe 6 were obtained from Baylor University and input into the Global Solar Atlas to obtain the average yearly global horizontal irradiance values. European temperature data was obtained from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (Copernicus Climate Data Store) 7. ALL and CLL incidence and prevalence rates per 100,000 people for 40 European countries were compared by linear regression to each country's temperature or solar irradiance at the population centroids. Statistical analyses were performed using GraphPad Prism and Excel. Results:After2010, we detected a significant positive correlation between ALL incidence and prevalence rates with mean annual temperature across countries for each year of analysis (for example in 2014 the ALL prevalence p-value = 0.01 and R= 0.4, see Figure 1). There was also an increase in the significance of this relationship over time between 2010 and 2019 (Figure 1B). We also detected a significant positive correlation between the increase in mean annual temperature across Europe and an increase in ALL over the past decade (Figure 1B). However, no relationship was established in this study for solar irradiance or population-weighted latitude and CLL prevalence and incidence rates. Conclusions:Increasing mean annual temperatures may increase the risk of developing ALL. We speculate this may be connected through increases in extreme weather events impacting oxidative stress, DNA damage, and/or suppression of the immune system. Considering the global climate crisis, the WMO finding of higher European temperature increases and our finding of significance between temperature and ALL rates, these relationships should be functionally studied. Finally, these studies should be expanded to countries outside of Europe. References 1 World Meteorological Organization. Temperatures in Europe increase more than twice global average. (2022). 2 Pordanjani, S. R., Kavousi, A., Mirbagheri, B., Shahsavani, A. &amp; Etemad, K. Temporal trend and spatial distribution of ALL in Iranian children during 2006-2014: a mixed ecological study. Epidemiol. Health42, (2020). 3 Coste, A. et al. Residential exposure to UV light and risk of precursor B-cell ALL: assessing the role of individual risk factors, the ESCALE and ESTELLE studies. Cancer Causes Control28, 1075-1083 (2017). 4 Rogne, T. et al. High Ambient Temperature in Pregnancy and Risk of Childhood ALL. medRxiv (2023) 5 Chauhan, S. S., Rashamol, V. P., Bagath, M., Sejian, V. &amp; Dunshea, F. R. Impacts of heat stress on immune responses and oxidative stress in farm animals and nutritional strategies for amelioration. Int. J. Biometeorol.65, 1231-1244 (2021). 6 Hamerly, G. Population-weighted European state centers. (2006). 7 Climatic Research Unit, U. of E. A. Temperature and precipitation gridded data for global and regional domains derived from in-situ and satellite observations. (2023).

Assessment of climate change impacts for two tributary basins of the Irtysh River in Kazakhstan

Information about the climate change impacts on river discharge of 2 tributary basins of the Irtysh River, the Oba and Ulbi, is important for effective management of the water resources of the Shulba reservoir in Kazakhstan. The main aim of the study was to investigate potential changes in water resource availability in the study basins. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM was used under 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Our results show an increase in mean annual temperature of 6.1°C, an increase in average annual precipitation of 7.5 to 14%, an increase in annual average discharge for the Oba (6 to 8%) and smaller discharge changes (below 5%) for the Ulbi at the end of the century under RCP8.5—a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions—compared to the reference period (1981-2010). Seasonal variations are marked by the peak discharge occurring up to a month earlier, a decrease in the duration of snow accumulation and a reduction in discharge during the summer months. The peak discharge period is prolonged in time, and a slight increase in river discharge could be expected from October to December. Possible future changes in climate may have serious impacts on water resources, agriculture and economic development in the case study basins. The results of this study can be extrapolated to other neighboring basins in Kazakhstan with similar climatic and geophysical characteristics.

Holocene summer temperature record based on branched tetraethers in Northeast China

The temperature evolution during the Holocene shows conflicting patterns and yields the controversy regarding whether the Holocene followed a warming or cooling trend. Resolving this controversy is critical for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change and evaluating global warming on a longer timescale. Here we present a quantitative summer temperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers analyzed from a sedimentary sequence retrieved from the volcanic lake Kielguo crater lake in Northeast (NE) China. Our record revealed that the summer temperature in NE China followed a rough cooling trend during ~10–2.2 cal ka BP and increased after ~2.2 cal ka BP. The warmest period appeared at ~10–8.8 cal ka BP with ~15.8°C, and the coldest time occurred at ~2.3 cal ka BP with ~13.4°C. Compared with other temperature records from NE China, we conclude that the summer and winter temperature change trends in NE China were probably controlled by the summer and winter insolation respectively, and the ice volume. The mean annual temperature changes in NE China resulted from the superposition of summer cooling and winter warming during the Holocene, and the decrease in ice volume forcing the increase in mean annual temperatures before ~7–6 cal ka BP. The switch in mean annual temperature changes was probably linked with the collapse of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Thermal Regime of Permafrost on the Western Yamal Under Climate Warming

Climate change observed in the Arctic affects all components of the natural environment, including the state of permafrost. The purpose of this study is to quantify the response of permafrost in various landscapes to changing climatic parameters. The results of long-term field observations (1978-2021) of the thermal regime of permafrost on the Western Yamal are presented. Along with the increase in mean annual air temperatures, the mean annual ground temperature over the past 43 years has increased by 1.5-2.2°C. The maximum increase of permafrost temperature values is observed on flat and polygonal tundra, the minimum increase is typical for flooded lake basins. A decrease in the annual permafrost temperature amplitude was revealed. That is caused by a rapid increase in the air temperature of the cold period, an increase in the snow thickness and an increase in soil moisture in the active layer. The shrinking in ground temperature amplitude at a depth of 5 m is 0.5-3.6°C. A trend of reducing depth of zero annual amplitude from 12-18 m (1980) to 13-16 m (2021) has been revealed.

Peculiarities of the modern global warming

The peculiarities of modern climate warming and the influence of global atmospheric circulation on it are considered from the position of solar-terrestrial relations. The role of the main atmospheric currents between the equator and both poles of the Earth is so great that for four decades it has caused unprecedentedly strong forest fires and other natural disasters which affected not only Siberia and Southern Europe (Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece and others) but also the USA, Canada and Australia. Another phenomenon of the modern climate is a paradoxically high winter warming in the zone of the Siberian anticyclone. Due to intensification of meridian circulation since the last quarter of the 20th century, the increase in mean annual temperature at the cold pole of the Northern Hemisphere in Yakutia has twice exceeded indicators of other regions and dictates the course of warming of all Northern Asia and North America. The warming wave from the center of the Yakutian core has even reached the southern periphery of the anticyclone in the Northern Tien Shan. The practical side of the study concerns the actively developing oil and gas complex of Yakutia. In nearest future Yakutia will not leave the zone of dangerous forest fires. Along with the costs of extinguishing fires, additional expenses will be required here to deal with post-fire cryogenic transformations of the highly porous base soils. Atmospheric meridian circulation is too large-scale phenomenon to avoid it at the regional level. It amplifies the dynamics of all natural processes in both hemispheres of the Earth and is modulated only by the Sun’s activity in the course of its 11-year and hundred-year cycles.