Increase In Aggregate Productivity Research Articles

Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation

This paper investigates the role of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on resource allocation across heterogeneous Chinese producers and aggregate productivity in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Using detailed Chinese data and common cost minimization conditions we measure the difference between optimal capital and labor holdings for each firm, or the efficiency gap. We document that (i) efficiency gaps decline sharply with China’s accession to the WTO and the declines are disproportionately pronounced among industries most exposed to TPU; (ii) efficiency gap declines were larger among Chinese exporters; (iii) efficiency gap declines occur simultaneously with a rise in the variance of firm-level employment and investment in new capital. Using China’s accession to the WTO as an exogenous change in the degree of uncertainty faced by Chinese producers, we quantify the implied change in productivity due to the reduction in TPU. Our estimates imply that the reduction in TPU induced by WTO accession accounted for a 17% increase in aggregate productivity through reduced resource misallocation.

Impact of financial development on outsourcing and aggregate productivity

This study examines how costly financial contracting and weak contract enforcement influence firms’ outsourcing decisions. A multisector neoclassical model in which external investors can play a role in monitoring suppliers is developed. Financial development improves investors’ monitoring efficiency and encourages firms to outsource more production, particularly to suppliers that are more dependent on external finance. The global financial crisis is used along with firm-level data from the United Kingdom to provide causal evidence of this channel. The model is then calibrated to match the borrowing costs of 88 countries and is used to quantify the effects of financial development on total factor productivity. Setting borrowing costs to the level in the United States leads to an average 7 percent increase in aggregate productivity for these countries.

Accrual Accounting and Resource Allocation: A General Equilibrium Analysis

ABSTRACTThis paper evaluates the role of accrual accounting in improving firms' production decisions and resource allocation across firms. I introduce two imperfect firm‐performance measures, cash flows and accounting earnings, into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms under imperfect information. The model demonstrates that improvements in measurement systems lead to more informed decisions on the part of firms and ultimately to allocation of greater resources to high‐productivity firms via the product and input markets. Estimated parameter values are consistent with accrual accounting improving managers' information about current productivity by providing a better measure of historical firm performance. Quantitative analysis suggests that introducing accrual‐accounting information on top of cash‐accounting information leads to a 0.5% increase in aggregate U.S. productivity and a 0.7% increase in aggregate U.S. output via improved resource allocation. The corresponding estimates for China and India, as benchmarks for developing countries, are larger: a 1.5% to 2.3% increase in aggregate productivity and a 2.3% to 3.4% increase in aggregate output. I conclude that accrual accounting plays a significant role in determining aggregate productivity via improved resource allocation.

Modeling R&D spillovers to productivity: The effects of tax credits

How much stimuli that should be attributed to R&D investments crucially depends on how the benefits of R&D reverberate throughout the economy. An extensive literature has found major spillover effects from R&D investments from one industry to another. Using a macroeconomic model for a small open economy, we analyze how tax credits stimulate R&D through the user cost of capital and how it impacts the economy in general via knowledge flows from R&D capital. We find that a tax credit scheme that lowers the user cost of R&D capital, leads to a gradual increase in aggregate productivity. In the long run, the levels of output, real wages, and consumption are around one percent higher than the baseline.

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Spatial Frictions

We develop a general equilibrium model of frictional labor reallocation across firms and regions, and use it to quantify the aggregate and distributional effects of spatial frictions that hinder worker mobility across regions in Germany. The model leverages matched employer-employee data to unpack spatial frictions into different types while isolating them from labor market frictions that operate also within region. The estimated model shows sizable spatial frictions between East and West Germany, especially due to the limited ability of workers to obtain job offers from more distant regions. Despite the large real wage gap between East and West of Germany, removing the spatial frictions leads, in equilibrium, to only a small increase in aggregate productivity and it mostly affects the within-region allocation of labor to firms rather than the between-region allocation. However, spatial frictions have large distributional consequences, as their removal drastically reduces the gap in lifetime earnings between East and West Germans.

Quantifying the Effects of Patent Protection on Innovation, Imitation, Growth, and Aggregate Productivity

Abstract I develop a general equilibrium model in which patent protection can increase or decrease the costs of sequential innovation, original innovation, and imitation. Depending on these relative effects, protection can in theory increase or decrease markups, imitation, innovation, growth, and aggregate productivity. I discipline the model using data from several different sources, and find that weakening protection in the U.S. would lead to no change in markups and imitation, no change in long-run growth, a significant increase in the number of firms, and an increase in aggregate productivity of 11%.

Reallocation, Competition, and Productivity: Evidence from a Financial Liberalization Episode

This article studies the impact of distortions in the access to international capital markets on competition and productivity. I show that a reduction in these distortions leads to an increase in aggregate productivity through two different channels. First, firms that were previously credit constrained respond to better financing terms by increasing their investment in technology, a reallocation effect. Secondly, non-constrained firms also expand their investment in technology because of increased competition, a pro-competitive effect. I provide evidence for these two channels using firm-level census data from the deregulation of international financial flows in Hungary.

Plant Turnover and Structural Reforms in Colombia

In a healthy economy, plant turnover increases aggregate productivity because efficient producers are more likely to survive. Given high entry and exit rates and the potential importance of turnover in accounting for aggregate productivity, in this paper we examine the determinants of plant exits and then examine how exits and other forms of output reallocation contribute to aggregate productivity. Using a unique plant-level longitudinal data set for Colombia for the period 1982-98, we examine the role of productivity and demand as well as input costs in determining plant exits. Moreover, given the important structural reforms introduced in Colombia during the early 1990s, we explore whether and how plant survival changed after these reforms. Our data permit measurement of plant-level quantities and prices, which allows us to decompose productivity and demand shocks and, in turn, to estimate the effects of these fundamentals on plant exit. We find that higher productivity, higher demand, and lower input prices decrease the probability of plant exit. We also find that the importance of physical efficiency and costs in determining exits increases after the introduction of structural reforms. Finally, a decomposition of aggregate productivity suggests that reallocation through entry and exit is important in accounting for the increase in aggregate productivity after the introduction of structural reforms.

Accrual Accounting and Resource Allocation: A General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper evaluates the role of accrual accounting in improving firms' production decisions and resource allocation across firms. I introduce two imperfect firm-performance measures, cash flows and accounting earnings, into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms under imperfect information. The model demonstrates that improvements in measurement systems lead to more informed decisions on the part of firms and ultimately to allocation of greater resources to high-productivity firms via the product and input markets. Estimated parameter values are consistent with accrual accounting improving managers' information about current productivity by providing a better measure of historical firm performance. Quantitative analysis suggests that introducing accrual-accounting information on top of cash-accounting information leads to a 0.5% increase in aggregate U.S. productivity and a 0.7% increase in aggregate U.S. output via improved resource allocation. The corresponding estimates for China and India, as benchmarks for developing countries, are larger: a 1.5% to 2.3% increase in aggregate productivity and a 2.3% to 3.4% increase in aggregate output. I conclude that accrual accounting plays a significant role in determining aggregate productivity via improved resource allocation.

Reallocation, Competition and Productivity: Evidence From a Financial Liberalization Episode

This paper studies the impact of distortions in the access to international capital markets on competition and productivity. I show that a reduction in these distortions leads to an increase in aggregate productivity through two different channels. First, previously credit-constrained firms respond to better financing terms by increasing their investment in technology, a reallocation effect. Second, non-constrained firms also expand their investment in technology due to increased competition, a pro-competitive effect. I provide evidence for these two channels using firm-level census data around the deregulation of international financial flows in Hungary.

Reallocation, Competition and Productivity: Evidence from a Financial Liberalization Episode

This paper studies the impact of capital market distortions on misallocation, competition and productivity. Focusing on distortions in the access to international borrowing across firms, I show that a reduction in these distortions leads to an increase in aggregate productivity through two different channels. First, previously credit-constrained firms respond to better financing terms by increasing their investment in technology, a reallocation effect. Second, non-constrained firms also expand their investment in technology due to increased competition, a pro-competitive effect. I provide evidence for these two channels using firm-level census data around the deregulation of international financial flows in Hungary.

Endogenously Procyclical Liquidity, Capital Reallocation, and q

By analyzing a stochastic equilibrium with endogenous liquidity in the capital market, this paper explains the puzzling fact that capital reallocation across firms is procyclical while dispersion in Tobin's q across firms is acyclical or counter cyclical. Capital is reallocated across firms through a frictional market modeled by search and matching. The market tightness captures liquidity in this market and is endogenously determined as buyers choose whether to enter the market. Capital creation is also endogenous as capital makers choose whether to incur a cost to make capital. When aggregate productivity increases, more capital is created. At the same time, more buyers enter the capital market to buy capital in an attempt to capture the increased value of a productive firm. As a result, market liquidity increases and more capital is reallocated. The price of capital increases, which increases q of low-value firms and reduces q of high-value firms. The mean and standard deviation in q across firms respond ambiguously to an increase in aggregate productivity. These results are robust to the addition of heterogeneity in firm-specific productivity.

Estimating a Dynamic Adverse-Selection Model: Labour-Force Experience and the Changing Gender Earnings Gap 1968–1997

This paper addresses two questions: What accounts for the gender gap in labour-market outcomes? What are the driving forces behind the changes in the gender labour-market outcomes over the period 1968–1997? It formulates a dynamic general equilibrium model of labour supply, occupational sorting, and human-capital accumulation in which gender discrimination and an earnings gap arise endogenously. It uses this model to quantify the driving forces behind the decline in the gender earnings gap and the increase in female labour-force participation, the proportion of women working in professional occupations, and hours worked. It finds that labour-market experience is the most important factor explaining the gender earnings gap. In addition, statistical discrimination accounts for a large fraction of the observed gender earnings gap and its decline. It also finds that a large increase in aggregate productivity in professional occupations plays a major role in the increase in female labourforce participation, number of hours worked, and the proportion of females working in professional occupations. Although of less importance, demographic changes account for a substantial part of the increase in female labour-force participation and hours worked, whereas home production technology shocks do not.

International technology diffusion and economic growth: Explaining the spillover benefits to developing countries

Technology spillovers offer great opportunities for economic growth to developing countries that do little, if any, R&D activity. This paper explores the extent to which these countries benefit from foreign technology, the diffusion mechanisms involved, and the factors that shape their absorption capabilities. Results based on a non-stationary panel of 55 developing countries indicate that the benefits are quite substantial: a ten-percent increase in foreign R&D stock is translated into more than a two-percent increase in aggregate productivity. Of the diffusion channels considered, imports appear to be more conducive to R&D spillover. In addition, developing countries that enjoy larger benefits tend to exhibit larger stock of human capital, more openness to trade and foreign activities, and stronger institutions. These North–South R&D spillovers, although larger than previously suggested, appear less strong than North–North spillovers, adding to the general literature on economic divergence between developed and developing countries.

Dynamics of the Price Distribution in a General Model of State-Dependent Pricing

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary shocks in a DSGE model that allows for a general form of smoothly state-dependent pricing by firms. As in Dotsey, King, and Wolman (1999) and Caballero and Engel (2007), our setup is based on one fundamental property: firms are more likely to adjust their prices when doing so is more valuable. The exogenous timing (Calvo 1983) and fixed menu cost (Golosov and Lucas 2007) models are nested as limiting cases of our setup. Our model is calibrated to match the steady-state distribution of price adjustments in microdata; realism calls for firm-specific shocks. Computing a dynamic general equilibrium requires us to calculate how the distribution of prices and productivities evolves over time. We solve the model using the method of Reiter (2008), which is well-suited to this type of problem because it combines a fully nonlinear treatment of firm-level state variables with a linearization of the aggregate dynamics. We compute impulse responses to iid and autocorrelated money growth shocks, and decompose the inflation impact into 'intensive margin', 'extensive margin' and 'selection' components. Under our most successful calibration, increased money growth causes a persistent rise in inflation and output. The real effects are substantially larger if money growth is autocorrelated. In contrast, if we instead impose a fixed menu cost specification, money growth shocks cause a sharp spike in inflation (via the selection component) so that the real effects are small and short-lived, especially if money growth is iid. An increase in aggregate productivity raises consumption but causes labor to fall. Also, impulse responses differ depending on the distribution at the time the shock occurs. In particular, increased money growth has different effects starting from the steady state distribution than it does if all firms have recently received an economy-wide productivity shock.

Plant Turnover and Structural Reforms in Colombia

In a healthy economy, plant turnover increases aggregate productivity because efficient producers are more likely to survive. Given high entry and exit rates and the potential importance of turnover in accounting for aggregate productivity, in this paper we examine the determinants of plant exits and then examine how exits and other forms of output reallocation contribute to aggregate productivity. Using a unique plant-level longitudinal data set for Colombia for the period 1982-98, we examine the role of productivity and demand as well as input costs in determining plant exits. Moreover, given the important structural reforms introduced in Colombia during the early 1990s, we explore whether and how plant survival changed after these reforms. Our data permit measurement of plant-level quantities and prices, which allows us to decompose productivity and demand shocks and, in turn, to estimate the effects of these fundamentals on plant exit. We find that higher productivity, higher demand, and lower input prices decrease the probability of plant exit. We also find that the importance of physical efficiency and costs in determining exits increases after the introduction of structural reforms. Finally, a decomposition of aggregate productivity suggests that reallocation through entry and exit is important in accounting for the increase in aggregate productivity after the introduction of structural reforms. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

Factor Adjustments after Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants

We analyze nonlinear adjustments of capital and labor using plant data from the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey, allowing for interdependence in adjustments of the two factors. We find nonlinear employment and capital adjustments. We also find that capital shortages reduce hiring, and labor surpluses reduce capital shedding. Moreover, we find that job destruction and capital formation increased after factor market deregulation in Colombia. Finally, we find that completely eliminating frictions in factor adjustment would yield a substantial increase in aggregate productivity through improved allocative efficiency, but that the actual impact of the Colombian deregulation on productivity was modest.

Factor Adjustments after Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants

In this paper, we analyze employment and capital adjustments using a panel of plants from Colombia. We allow for nonlinear adjustment of employment to reflect not only adjustment costs of labor but also adjustment costs of capital, and vice-versa. Using data from the Annual Manufacturing Survey, which include plant-level prices, we generate measures of plant-level productivity, demand shocks, and cost shocks, and use them to measure desired factor levels. We then estimate adjustment functions for capital and labor as a function of the gap between desired and actual factor levels. As in other countries, we find non-linear adjustments in employment and capital in response to market fundamentals. In addition, we find that employment and capital adjustments reinforce each other, in that capital shortages reduce hiring and labor shortages reduce investment. Moreover, we find that the market oriented reforms introduced in Colombia after 1990 increased employment adjustments, especially on the job destruction margin, while reducing capital adjustments. Finally, we find that while completely eliminating frictions from factor adjustments would yield a dramatic increase in aggregate productivity through improved allocative efficiency, the reforms introduced in Colombia generated only modest improvements.