Incorrect Hypotheses Research Articles

NARRATIVE WRITING ABILITY PERFORMED BY STUDENTS OF ISLAMIC HIGH SCHOOL AL UKHUWAH SUKOHARJO: A SECOND LANGUAGE ACQUISITION CASE

<p class="Keyword">The research conducted at MA Al Ukhuwah Sukoharjo aimed to explore second language acquisition among high school students, specifically focusing on error types and factors influencing these errors with a gender-based analysis. Utilizing a descriptive qualitative approach and the four stages of analysis—domain, taxonomic, componential, and cultural theme—the study identified 841 errors, with misformation errors comprising the majority at 51.6%. Female students exhibited a higher error rate at 80.38% compared to their male counterparts (19.62%). Causes of errors, such as overgeneralization, incomplete rule application, incorrect hypothesis conception, and ignorance of rule restrictions, were identified, with the latter significantly impacting language mastery. These findings provide valuable insights for educators, informing strategies to address challenges in mastering English, particularly in areas like tense usage, sentence structure, diction, and conjunctions among high school students at MA Al Ukhuwah Sukoharjo.</p>

CurveCurator: a recalibrated F-statistic to assess, classify, and explore significance of dose–response curves

Dose-response curves are key metrics in pharmacology and biology to assess phenotypic or molecular actions of bioactive compounds in a quantitative fashion. Yet, it is often unclear whether or not a measured response significantly differs from a curve without regulation, particularly in high-throughput applications or unstable assays. Treating potency and effect size estimates from random and true curves with the same level of confidence can lead to incorrect hypotheses and issues in training machine learning models. Here, we present CurveCurator, an open-source software that provides reliable dose-response characteristics by computing p-values and false discovery rates based on a recalibrated F-statistic and a target-decoy procedure that considers dataset-specific effect size distributions. The application of CurveCurator to three large-scale datasets enables a systematic drug mode of action analysis and demonstrates its scalable utility across several application areas, facilitated by a performant, interactive dashboard for fast data exploration.

IMPROVEMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR HOMOGRAPHY SUPERPOSITION OF IMAGES

The article presents an improved technology for projective image alignment. The original technique includes two stages: preliminary comparison of singular points and selection of points that satisfy geometric constraints. The improvement is achieved by introduction of another stage, with selection of those points that correspond to unique image fragments among the singular points. Points corresponding to similar fragments are removed from the image, since they determine a large number of potentially incorrect hypotheses, which verification increases total processing time. Such improvement allows to reduce alignment time, which is one of the general characteristics of the developed technology. The improved technology was tested on images taken by an unmanned aerial vehicle. The experiment showed a significant decrease of the image processing time.

Convex Variational Inference for Multi-Hypothesis Fractional Belief Propagation Based Data Association in Multiple Target Tracking Systems

The success of Multi-hypothesis tracking(MHT) lies in the use of multiple scans, which can often yield improved tracking performance over single scan based data association methods in radar-centric multi-target tracking(MTT) systems. However, with the increase of the number of targets associated with measurements, there is an exponentially increasing need for formulating potential hypotheses, of which the computational cost may be prohibitively expensive. In this paper, a multi-hypothesis fractional belief propagation (MHFBP) based data association algorithm is proposed by the use of a probabilistic graph model for both the previous trajectories and the current measurements. To achieve this idea, there are two main steps. First, the trajectory-related indicators associated state variables are created by making use of a convex fractional free energy (FFE)function. Second, the convex optimization algorithm is used for the objective function and the fractional belief propagation (FBP) is exploited to obtain the best marginal belief of measurement for target association. In this way, incorrect hypotheses with extremely low probability can be eliminated. Finally, the proposed method is applied to multiple scenarios for MTT by indoor radar system. From the results, we can observe that it provides higher tracking performance compared with the classical MHT, feature-aided MHT(FA-MHT) and MHT-belief propagation (MHT-BP). In addition, we see that the computational burden of the proposed method is reduced significantly to avoid the phenomenon of exponential growth with increasing the number of targets.

Прогнозирование гидромеханических характеристик винта одновального судна

Object and purpose of research. This paper discusses hydromechanics properties of propeller and their scaling laws. The purpose of this study was to analyse existing methods of scaling model test data through their comparison with full-scale test results, identify possible sources of considerable error that might be present in them, as well as update the method of model test data scaling taking into account hydrodmechanic interaction between propeller and hull in terms of their model data extrapolation to the full scale. Materials and methods. The paper discusses general relationships between hydromechanic parameters of hull and propeller, that arise, in their turn, from the fundamental laws of mechanics. These relationships were used to analyse interconnected laws governing the full-scale extrapolation of model test data for hull resistance, propeller thrust and propeller torque. Main results. The study identified some incorrect hypotheses in current scaling methods for hydrodynamics of propeller in behind-hull conditions, that might bring about considerable error in full-scale estimates of operational advance coefficient, thrust coefficient, efficiency and RPM. Conclusion. This paper suggests alternative techniques for determination of operational advance coefficient and other hydromechanics parameters of full-scale propeller, so as to obtain the estimates that take into account physical peculiarities of scale effect and also correlate with the results of full-scale trials.

The effects of immediate versus delayed feedback on complex concept learning.

We report three experiments that examine whether immediate versus delayed feedback produce differential concept learning. Subjects were shown hypothetical experiment scenarios and were asked to determine whether each was a true experiment. Correct-answer feedback was used for all three experiments; Experiments 2 and 3 also included detailed explanations. In all three experiments, subjects who received immediate feedback were shown the correct answer after each response. In Experiments 1 and 2, subjects in the delayed feedback condition were shown feedback after responding to all of the scenarios. All subjects then completed a posttest with novel scenarios. Experiment 3 was three parts (each session was 2 days apart). Subjects in the immediate feedback condition completed the posttest on the second session; subjects in the delayed feedback condition were given feedback on the second session and completed the posttest on the third session. Although no posttest differences were observed between the feedback conditions in Experiments 1 and 2, a delayed feedback advantage was found in Experiment 3. We propose that longer intervals in delayed feedback (relative to shorter intervals) might allow learners to forget the incorrect hypotheses they form during learning, which might thereby enhance the processing of feedback.

On the Use of Markov Models in Pharmacoeconomics: Pros and Cons and Implications for Policy Makers.

We present an overview of the main methodological features and the goals of pharmacoeconomic models that are classified in three major categories: regression models, decision trees, and Markov models. In particular, we focus on Markov models and define a semi-Markov model on the cost utility of a vaccine for Dengue fever discussing the key components of the model and the interpretation of its results. Next, we identify some criticalities of the decision rule arising from a possible incorrect interpretation of the model outcomes. Specifically, we focus on the difference between median and mean ICER and on handling the willingness-to-pay thresholds. We also show that the life span of the model and an incorrect hypothesis specification can lead to very different outcomes. Finally, we analyse the limit of Markov model when a large number of states is considered and focus on the implementation of tools that can bypass the lack of memory condition of Markov models. We conclude that decision makers should interpret the results of these models with extreme caution before deciding to fund any health care policy and give some recommendations about the appropriate use of these models.

Dimensionality reduction of multielement glass evidence to calculate likelihood ratios

AbstractDimensionality reduction of multivariate elemental concentrations of glass is reported for computing likelihood ratios (LRs). The LRs calculated using principal component analysis (PCA) and a post hoc calibration steps result in very low (<1%) false inclusions when comparing glass samples known to originate from different sources and very low (<1%) false exclusions when comparing glass samples known to originate from the same source. The LRs calculated using the novel PCA approach are compared with previously reported LRs calculated using a more computationally intensive Multivariate Kernel (MVK) model followed by a calibration step using a Pool Adjacent Violators (PAV) algorithm. In both cases, the calibrated LRs limited the magnitude of the misleading evidence, providing only weak to moderate support for the incorrect hypotheses. Most of the different pairs that were found to be falsely included were explained by chemical relatedness (same manufacturer of the glass sources in very close time interval between manufacture). The computation of LRs using dimensionality reduction of elemental concentrations using PCA may transfer to other multivariate data‐generating evidence types.

Firsthand or secondhand data in school labs: It does not make a difference

We report the findings of an empirical study that investigated whether the source of data—firsthand or secondhand data gained from lab work experiments—has an influence on students’ learning outcomes. Results indicate that students’ choice of a correct or incorrect hypothesis for a pendulum lab experiment on the influence of the mass of the bob on the time of oscillation does not depend on who the author of the data at hand is: the student themself, a peer, or a teacher. Further, students judge the importance of the data’s author as relatively unimportant no matter what data source they have at hand. Thus, it seems fairly unimportant whether students use firsthand or secondhand data when the teaching focus is set on choosing a correct hypothesis in the light of empirical data, as long as students get enough information on how the data were generated and how they are analyzed and interpreted. This result is especially relevant for practitioners, as it shows that it is possible to use secondhand data for the purpose of evaluation and interpretation without significant distortions of epistemic learning processes.Received 26 June 2019Accepted 27 January 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.16.013102Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI.Published by the American Physical SocietyPhysics Subject Headings (PhySH)Research AreasConcepts & principlesLearning environmentScientific reasoning & problem solvingPhysics Education Research

Efficient clinical reasoning: Knowing when to start and when to stop

Purpose: While clinical reasoning in medicine traditionally values the ultimate goal of providing an accurate diagnosis of disease, insufficient emphasis has been placed on how students' decisions may affect their diagnostic efficiency. This study adds new empirical evidence about what makes students efficient problem-solvers in clinical reasoning. Methods: Seventy-five medical students participated in this study in 2015. The authors compared the differences in clinical reasoning behaviors between high- and low-performing students before they proposed any diagnostic hypothesis. The authors used the Cox proportional-hazards model to explore how certain characteristics of students and essential features of reasoning processes affect the life span of incorrect hypotheses. Results: High-performing students were more prepared than low performers to propose their first hypothesis. The more laboratory tests and hypotheses the medical students had, the longer it took for them to confirm a correct diagnosis. Male students tended to finalize the correct diagnosis earlier than females. There are no differences between the easy and the difficult cases in the aforementioned patterns. Conclusion: This study helps shift the emphasis away from a solitary focus on accuracy to one that considers the importance of diagnostic efficiency. The authors discussed two main take-home messages for physicians.

On the number of Monte Carlo runs in comparative probabilistic LCA

IntroductionThe Monte Carlo technique is widely used and recommended for including uncertainties LCA. Typically, 1000 or 10,000 runs are done, but a clear argument for that number is not available, and with the growing size of LCA databases, an excessively high number of runs may be a time-consuming thing. We therefore investigate if a large number of runs are useful, or if it might be unnecessary or even harmful.Probability theoryWe review the standard theory or probability distributions for describing stochastic variables, including the combination of different stochastic variables into a calculation. We also review the standard theory of inferential statistics for estimating a probability distribution, given a sample of values. For estimating the distribution of a function of probability distributions, two major techniques are available, analytical, applying probability theory and numerical, using Monte Carlo simulation. Because the analytical technique is often unavailable, the obvious way-out is Monte Carlo. However, we demonstrate and illustrate that it leads to overly precise conclusions on the values of estimated parameters, and to incorrect hypothesis tests.Numerical illustrationWe demonstrate the effect for two simple cases: one system in a stand-alone analysis and a comparative analysis of two alternative systems. Both cases illustrate that statistical hypotheses that should not be rejected in fact are rejected in a highly convincing way, thus pointing out a fundamental flaw.Discussion and conclusionsApart form the obvious recommendation to use larger samples for estimating input distributions, we suggest to restrict the number of Monte Carlo runs to a number not greater than the sample sizes used for the input parameters. As a final note, when the input parameters are not estimated using samples, but through a procedure, such as the popular pedigree approach, the Monte Carlo approach should not be used at all.

Use and Misuse of the English “the” : A Case of Hong Kong Cantonese ESL Learners

This paper discusses Hong Kong Cantonese ESL learners’ judgment of the use of the English definite article. 33 Cantonese ESL learners majoring in English participated in the study, which consisted of a grammaticality judgment task requiring participants to judge the grammaticality of 60 sentences with regard to the use (or non-use) of the definite article. Two post-task interviews of four interviewees each were conducted to collect in-depth reports about learners’ thinking processes during grammaticality judgment and the strategies they employed. The results of the study show that the generic use of the definite article is largely unknown to Cantonese ESL learners, and learners make certain incorrect hypotheses about the use of the. Reliance on L1 translations is also observed, showing learners’ unawareness of the functional and semantic differences between similar items in the two languages. It is suggested that ESL teachers alert learners to their misconceptions and help learners eradicate their faulty assumptions. The generic use of the, alongside other structures used to represent generic reference, should be incorporated into the curriculum of an advanced ESL classroom. Future research about English article use should not only focus on analyses of learner errors but also tap into learners’ thinking processes.

What the Middle-Aged Galileo Told the Elderly Galileo: Galileo’s Search for the Laws of Fall

Recent historiographic results in Galilean studies disclose the use of proportions, graphical representation of the kinematic variables (distance, time, speed), and the medieval double distance rule in Galileo’s reasoning; these have been characterized as Galileo’s “tools for thinking.” We assess the import of these “tools” in Galileo’s reasoning leading to the laws of fall ( $$v^{2} \propto D$$ and $$v \propto t$$ ). To this effect, a reconstruction of folio 152r shows that Galileo built proportions involving distance, time, and speed in uniform motions, and applied to them the double distance rule to obtain uniformly accelerated motions; the folio indicates that he tried to fit proportions in a graph. Analogously, an argument in Two New Sciences to the effect that an earlier proof of the law of fall started from an incorrect hypothesis (v ∝ D) can be recast in the language of proportions, using only the proof that v ∝ t and the hypothesis.

E200k Familial Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Presenting with Subacute Multiple Cranial Neuropathy

Unusual clinical presentations in patients with E200K familial Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (fCJD) have been rarely reported. Herein, we described a case of E200K fCJD presenting with subacute cranial multiple neuropathy, initially suspected to be paraneoplastic or due to a leptomeningeal carcinomatosis, considering the neoplastic comorbidity of the patient. Surprisingly, brain MRI was highly suggestive of CJD. Brain histological examination confirmed the diagnosis. Genetic tests led to the definite diagnosis of E200K fCJD. To the best of our knowledge, the current case provides the first report of a histologically-confirmed E200K fCJD starting with cranial multiple neuropathy and may widen the spectrum of the clinical variability of CJD, also in its genetic variant. Unusual presentations may lead, as in this case, to incorrect diagnostic hypothesis and unuseful therapeutic attempts in the first phase of the diagnostic process. Also in the genetic variant of CJD, brain MRI demonstrated a very high sensitivity to detect the typical abnormalities since the earliest phases of the disease.

Comment on “the ultimate limits of the relativistic rocket equation. The Planck photon rocket”

We disprove the claim that was published in a recent paper [1] about an absolute maximum velocity related to the value of the Planck mass for a photon-propelled rocket in vacuum. This claim is based on incorrect hypotheses and is incompatible with the theory of relativity. We also review the relative bound that can actually be derived for the velocity of such an ideal rocket, as measured in the inertial frame in which it was at rest at a given initial time.

Synopsis: Special Issue on “Disruption of signaling homeostasis induced crosstalk in the carcinogenesis paradigmEpistemology of the origin of cancer”

It is increasingly evident that carcinogenesis, in the vast majority of cancers, cannot be explained simply through an accumulation of somatic mutations, or epigenetics, the stem cell theory, or the Warburg effect. Here, decades of thinking based on incorrect assumptions has resulted in an incorrect hypothesis on the origin of cancer. Many papers studying DNA, genetics, RNA, miRNA, proteomics, and epigenetics have increased our understanding of biology. Our paradigm, though more complex, is more reliable and plausible. It states that cancer originates from a disruption of homeostasis. This essential biological phenomenon, homeostasis, maintains the interrelationships of various signaling pathways and induced crosstalk which modify cellular functions together with the interactions of surrounding cells and structures such that the equilibrium lies towards the optimal health of the organism. This Special Issue “Disruption of signaling homeostasis induced crosstalk in the carcinogenesis paradigm Epistemology of the origin of cancer” provides compelling evidence that carcinogenesis is explained by a six-step sequence of events for the vast majority of cancers. These six steps include, (1) a pathogenic stimulus followed by (2) chronic inflammation, from which develops (3) fibrosis with associated remodeling in the cellular microenvironment. From these changes a (4) pre-cancerous niche develops which triggers the deployment of (5) a chronic stress escape strategy, and when this fails to resolve, and (6) the transition of a normal cell to a cancer cell occurs. This paradigm provides opportunities to move away from a symptom-oriented understanding of cancer and is much closer to a cause-based understanding, which opens the door for early preventative strategies to mitigate cancer as a disease, and to interdict metastases. This is underpinned by the fact that an independent recently published proof of this paradigm showed how a stimulus trigger the proposed multi-sequence cascade of events as abrupt involution-induced chronic inflammation, followed by fibrosis with remodeling, which describes the pre-cancerous niche followed by hyperplasia, metaplasia, and cancer.

Non-parametric regression for hypothesis testing in hospitality and tourism research

The goal of this paper is to promote the use of Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) for hypothesis testing in hospitality and tourism research. In contrast to linear regression models, NPR frees researchers from the need to impose a priori specification on functional forms, thus allowing more flexibility and less vulnerability to misspecification problems. Importantly, we discuss in this paper a Bayesian approach to NPR using a Gaussian Process Prior (GPP). We illustrate the advantages of this method using an interesting application on internationalization and hotel performance. Specifically, we show how in contrast to linear regression, NPR decreases the risk of making incorrect hypothesis statements by revealing the true and full relationship between the variables of interest.

The Effectiveness of a First Patient Discoveries Project in Promoting Observational Medicine and Diagnostic Decision‐Making

IntroductionCadaveric dissection presents a unique opportunity to integrate basic and clinical sciences, as students encounter disease processes in their first patients, their body donors. At the Medical College of Georgia, the First Patient Discoveries Activity was introduced for first year medical students during the 2016–2017 academic year. This yearlong integrative exercise introduces students to their first patient through careful observation and practice of clinical problem solving. The goal of the activity is to assess multiple competencies including observational medicine skills, evidence‐based reasoning, and awareness of how public health and psychosocial issues contribute to health and disease.Purpose and HypothesisThe purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of the First Patient Discoveries Activity for promoting observational medicine skills and integration of clinical and basic science among first year medical students. We hypothesized that students would integrate gross and microscopic observations with clinical science to draw appropriate conclusions about their body donor's cause of death (COD).MethodsFirst year medical students (n=190/year) were divided into 24 dissection groups. While dissecting, students complete a body donor observation form, noting gross anatomical findings. When students believe they have identified pathology, they biopsy it and submit a short report indicating their reason for the biopsy. After examining histological slides from their biopsy and forming initial hypotheses, students receive feedback from a pathologist. Based on their observations and pathological findings, students hypothesize the COD from a provided list (or deduce an alternate cause). The assignment is evaluated using a grading rubric. End of year reports were analyzed to assess students' abilities to identify their body donor's COD and explain their diagnostic reasoning.ResultsOf the 24 dissection groups, 5 identified their body donor's official COD, while an additional 5 groups presented evidence to support an alternate COD. Biopsies were key to successful diagnoses. The average number of biopsies per group was 3.08 (range 1–7), with groups who correctly hypothesized the official COD taking more biopsies than groups submitting incorrect hypotheses. Most groups exceeded expectations in their discussion of how observed pathologies contributed to their COD hypothesis (avg. score 92.6%) but struggled to demonstrate observational skills on the body donor observation form (avg. score 69.5%). Interestingly, students hypothesized cardiovascular pathologies, but no groups biopsied the heart. This omission led to 9 incorrect hypotheses and 5 missed diagnoses. Students drew logical conclusions from biopsies of lung, brain, and neoplastic tissue. However, overall diagnostic reasoning needed improvement to understand that multiple pathologies can affect a patient and that the patient's age and all of the organ systems should be assessed in order to make a diagnosis of exclusion.ConclusionIn its first year, the First Patient Discoveries Activity promoted integration of basic and clinical sciences content, observational medicine skills, and mindfulness of how pathologies affect patients' mortality. The project was modified for 2017–2018 to require biopsies of heart, lungs, and a large blood vessel, since these organs can give strong indication of overall health at the time of death.This abstract is from the Experimental Biology 2018 Meeting. There is no full text article associated with this abstract published in The FASEB Journal.

The use of LA-ICP-MS databases to calculate likelihood ratios for the forensic analysis of glass evidence

Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) has been shown to be an excellent technique for the discrimination of glass originating from different sources and for the association of glass originating from the same source. Typically, a match criterion is used to compare the elemental profile of the known sample to a questioned sample and if the glass samples are determined to “match” this may be followed by the use of a verbal scale to report the forensic practitioner's conclusion. This approach has several disadvantages: a fixed match criterion suffers from the “fall-off-the-cliff effect,” the rarity of an elemental profile is not taken into account, and the use of a verbal scale to assign a weight of evidence may be considered as subjective and can vary by examiner. An alternative approach includes the use of a continuous likelihood ratio that provides a quantitative measure of the value of the evidence in support of any hypothesis and accounts for the rarity of an elemental profile through the use of a glass database. In the present study, two glass databases were used to evaluate the performance of the likelihood ratio; the first database includes 420 automotive windshield samples, while the second database includes 385 glass samples from casework. The multivariate kernel model was used for the calculation of the likelihood ratio. However, this model led to unreasonably large (or small) likelihood ratios. Thus, a calibration step, using the Pool Adjacent Violators (PAV) algorithm, was necessary in order to limit the likelihood ratio to reasonable values. The calibrated likelihood ratio presented rates of misleading evidence of <1.5% (for LRs<1 when objects came from the same source), and of <1.0% (for LRs>1 when objects came from different sources), which improved over the analogous ASTM false inclusion and false exclusion rates previously reported. In addition, the likelihood ratio limited the magnitude of the misleading evidence, providing only weak to moderate support for the incorrect hypothesis. Finally, most of the pairs found to present LR>1 when objects originated from different sources were explained by similarity of manufacturer of the glass source.

Giant fibrous hamartoma of infancy: pitfall of CD34 positive dermal mesenchymal tumor

Fibrous hamartoma of infancy (FHI) is a rare benign soft tissue tumor with a triphasic organoid histologic appearance. The authors present a case of a 21-month-old healthy girl with a slowly growing flesh-colored subcutaneous plaque 12cm in size on the lower back, with overlying hypertrichosis. A punch biopsy revealed a proliferation of spindle cells infiltrating the dermis and hypodermis organized in a dense storiform pattern with a strong diffuse positivity for CD34. The diagnosis of congenital dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP) was considered and an excision was performed. Histopathologic analysis showed an extensive poorly demarcated mass infiltrating the dermis and hypodermis, composed of different components: a monomorphous fibroblastic/myofibroblastic component, a mature adipose component, and an immature mesenchymal basophilic component. The clinical aspects with the histologic and immunohistochemical features led to the diagnosis of giant fibrous hamartoma of infancy. In our case the strong diffuse CD34 positivity was a diagnostic pitfall leading to an incorrect hypothesis of congenital DFSP. The characteristic triphasic histology of FHI was missed owing to the small size of the punch biopsy. This article highlights the importance of being aware of the CD34+ dermal mesenchymal tumor differential diagnosis and the necessity of appropriate size biopsies to avoid sampling error.